Correction: Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793.].

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

BACKGROUND: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We developed this checklist using a best-practice process for development of reporting guidelines, involving a Delphi process and broad consultation with an international panel of infectious disease modelers and model end users. The objectives of these guidelines are to improve the consistency, reproducibility, comparability, and quality of epidemic forecasting reporting. The guidelines are not designed to advise scientists on how to perform epidemic forecasting and prediction research, but rather to serve as a standard for reporting critical methodological details of such studies. CONCLUSIONS: These guidelines have been submitted to the EQUATOR network, in addition to hosting by other dedicated webpages to facilitate feedback and journal endorsement.

Assessing 3 Outbreak Detection Algorithms in an Electronic Syndromic Surveillance System in a Resource-Limited Setting.

We evaluated the performance of X-bar chart, exponentially weighted moving average, and C3 cumulative sums aberration detection algorithms for acute diarrheal disease syndromic surveillance at naval sites in Peru during 2007-2011. The 3 algorithms' detection sensitivity was 100%, specificity was 97%-99%, and positive predictive value was 27%-46%.

Novel Bartonella agent as cause of verruga peruana.

While studying chronic verruga peruana infections in Peru from 2003, we isolated a novel Bartonella agent, which we propose be named Candidatus Bartonella ancashi. This case reveals the inherent weakness of relying solely on clinical syndromes for diagnosis and underscores the need for a new diagnostic paradigm in developing settings.

Molecular typing of "Candidatus Bartonella ancashi," a new human pathogen causing verruga peruana.

A recently described clinical isolate, "Candidatus Bartonella ancashi," was obtained from a blood sample of a patient presenting with verruga peruana in the Ancash region of Peru. This sample and a second isolate obtained 60 days later from the same patient were molecularly typed using multilocus sequence typing (MLST) and multispacer sequence typing (MST). The isolates were 100% indistinguishable from each other but phylogenetically distant from Bartonella bacilliformis and considerably divergent from other known Bartonella species, confirming their novelty.

Evaluation of the Global Health Security Index as a predictor of COVID-19 excess mortality standardised for under-reporting and age structure.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have observed that countries with the strongest levels of pandemic preparedness capacities experience the greatest levels of COVID-19 burden. However, these analyses have been limited by cross-country differentials in surveillance system quality and demographics. Here, we address limitations of previous comparisons by exploring country-level relationships between pandemic preparedness measures and comparative mortality ratios (CMRs), a form of indirect age standardisation, of excess COVID-19 mortality. METHODS: We indirectly age standardised excess COVID-19 mortality, from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation modelling database, by comparing observed total excess mortality to an expected age-specific COVID-19 mortality rate from a reference country to derive CMRs. We then linked CMRs with data on country-level measures of pandemic preparedness from the Global Health Security (GHS) Index. These data were used as input into multivariable linear regression analyses that included income as a covariate and adjusted for multiple comparisons. We conducted a sensitivity analysis using excess mortality estimates from WHO and The Economist. RESULTS: The GHS Index was negatively associated with excess COVID-19 CMRs (table 2; ß= -0.21, 95% CI= -0.35 to -0.08). Greater capacities related to prevention (ß= -0.11, 95% CI= -0.22 to -0.00), detection (ß= -0.09, 95% CI= -0.19 to -0.00), response (ß = -0.19, 95% CI= -0.36 to -0.01), international commitments (ß= -0.17, 95% CI= -0.33 to -0.01) and risk environments (ß= -0.30, 95% CI= -0.46 to -0.15) were each associated with lower CMRs. Results were not replicated using excess mortality models that rely more heavily on reported COVID-19 deaths (eg, WHO and The Economist). CONCLUSION: The first direct comparison of COVID-19 excess mortality rates across countries accounting for under-reporting and age structure confirms that greater levels of preparedness were associated with lower excess COVID-19 mortality. Additional research is needed to confirm these relationships as more robust national-level data on COVID-19 impact become available.

Novel strain of Andes virus associated with fatal human infection, central Bolivia.

To better describe the genetic diversity of hantaviruses associated with human illness in South America, we screened blood samples from febrile patients in Chapare Province in central Bolivia during 2008-2009 for recent hantavirus infection. Hantavirus RNA was detected in 3 patients, including 1 who died. Partial RNA sequences of small and medium segments from the 3 patients were most closely related to Andes virus lineages but distinct (<90% nt identity) from reported strains. A survey for IgG against hantaviruses among residents of Chapare Province indicated that 12.2% of the population had past exposure to >1 hantaviruses; the highest prevalence was among agricultural workers. Because of the high level of human exposure to hantavirus strains and the severity of resulting disease, additional studies are warranted to determine the reservoirs, ecologic range, and public health effect of this novel strain of hantavirus.

The Global Emerging Infection Surveillance and Response System (GEIS), a U.S. government tool for improved global biosurveillance: a review of 2009.

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) has the mission of performing surveillance for emerging infectious diseases that could affect the United States (U.S.) military. This mission is accomplished by orchestrating a global portfolio of surveillance projects, capacity-building efforts, outbreak investigations and training exercises. In 2009, this portfolio involved 39 funded partners, impacting 92 countries. This article discusses the current biosurveillance landscape, programmatic details of organization and implementation, and key contributions to force health protection and global public health in 2009.

Antimicrobial resistance surveillance in the AFHSC-GEIS network.

International infectious disease surveillance has been conducted by the United States (U.S.) Department of Defense (DoD) for many years and has been consolidated within the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) since 1998. This includes activities that monitor the presence of antimicrobial resistance among pathogens. AFHSC-GEIS partners work within DoD military treatment facilities and collaborate with host-nation civilian and military clinics, hospitals and university systems. The goals of these activities are to foster military force health protection and medical diplomacy. Surveillance activities include both community-acquired and health care-associated infections and have promoted the development of surveillance networks, centers of excellence and referral laboratories. Information technology applications have been utilized increasingly to aid in DoD-wide global surveillance for diseases significant to force health protection and global public health. This section documents the accomplishments and activities of the network through AFHSC-GEIS partners in 2009.

A growing global network's role in outbreak response: AFHSC-GEIS 2008-2009.

A cornerstone of effective disease surveillance programs comprises the early identification of infectious threats and the subsequent rapid response to prevent further spread. Effectively identifying, tracking and responding to these threats is often difficult and requires international cooperation due to the rapidity with which diseases cross national borders and spread throughout the global community as a result of travel and migration by humans and animals. From Oct.1, 2008 to Sept. 30, 2009, the United States Department of Defense's (DoD) Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) identified 76 outbreaks in 53 countries. Emerging infectious disease outbreaks were identified by the global network and included a wide spectrum of support activities in collaboration with host country partners, several of which were in direct support of the World Health Organization's (WHO) International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). The network also supported military forces around the world affected by the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic of 2009. With IHR (2005) as the guiding framework for action, the AFHSC-GEIS network of international partners and overseas research laboratories continues to develop into a far-reaching system for identifying, analyzing and responding to emerging disease threats.

Capacity-building efforts by the AFHSC-GEIS program.

Capacity-building initiatives related to public health are defined as developing laboratory infrastructure, strengthening host-country disease surveillance initiatives, transferring technical expertise and training personnel. These initiatives represented a major piece of the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) contributions to worldwide emerging infectious disease (EID) surveillance and response. Capacity-building initiatives were undertaken with over 80 local and regional Ministries of Health, Agriculture and Defense, as well as other government entities and institutions worldwide. The efforts supported at least 52 national influenza centers and other country-specific influenza, regional and U.S.-based EID reference laboratories (44 civilian, eight military) in 46 countries worldwide. Equally important, reference testing, laboratory infrastructure and equipment support was provided to over 500 field sites in 74 countries worldwide from October 2008 to September 2009. These activities allowed countries to better meet the milestones of implementation of the 2005 International Health Regulations and complemented many initiatives undertaken by other U.S. government agencies, such as the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the U.S. Agency for International Development and the U.S. Department of State.

Training initiatives within the AFHSC-Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System: support for IHR (2005).

Training is a key component of building capacity for public health surveillance and response, but has often been difficult to quantify. During fiscal 2009, the Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center, Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) supported 18 partner organizations in conducting 123 training initiatives in 40 countries for 3,130 U.S. military, civilian and host-country personnel. The training assisted with supporting compliance with International Health Regulations, IHR (2005). Training activities in pandemic preparedness, outbreak investigation and response, emerging infectious disease (EID) surveillance and pathogen diagnostic techniques were expanded significantly. By engaging local health and other government officials and civilian institutions, the U.S. military's role as a key stakeholder in global public health has been strengthened and has contributed to EID-related surveillance, research and capacity-building initiatives specified elsewhere in this issue. Public health and emerging infections surveillance training accomplished by AFHSC-GEIS and its Department of Defense (DoD) partners during fiscal 2009 will be tabulated and described.

Department of Defense influenza and other respiratory disease surveillance during the 2009 pandemic.

The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center's Division of Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) supports and oversees surveillance for emerging infectious diseases, including respiratory diseases, of importance to the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). AFHSC-GEIS accomplishes this mission by providing funding and oversight to a global network of partners for respiratory disease surveillance. This report details the system's surveillance activities during 2009, with a focus on efforts in responding to the novel H1N1 Influenza A (A/H1N1) pandemic and contributions to global public health. Active surveillance networks established by AFHSC-GEIS partners resulted in the initial detection of novel A/H1N1 influenza in the U.S. and several other countries, and viruses isolated from these activities were used as seed strains for the 2009 pandemic influenza vaccine. Partners also provided diagnostic laboratory training and capacity building to host nations to assist with the novel A/H1N1 pandemic global response, adapted a Food and Drug Administration-approved assay for use on a ruggedized polymerase chain reaction platform for diagnosing novel A/H1N1 in remote settings, and provided estimates of seasonal vaccine effectiveness against novel A/H1N1 illness. Regular reporting of the system's worldwide surveillance findings to the global public health community enabled leaders to make informed decisions on disease mitigation measures and controls for the 2009 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic. AFHSC-GEIS's support of a global network contributes to DoD's force health protection, while supporting global public health.

Malaria and other vector-borne infection surveillance in the U.S. Department of Defense Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center-Global Emerging Infections Surveillance program: review of 2009 accomplishments.

Vector-borne infections (VBI) are defined as infectious diseases transmitted by the bite or mechanical transfer of arthropod vectors. They constitute a significant proportion of the global infectious disease burden. United States (U.S.) Department of Defense (DoD) personnel are especially vulnerable to VBIs due to occupational contact with arthropod vectors, immunological naiveté to previously unencountered pathogens, and limited diagnostic and treatment options available in the austere and unstable environments sometimes associated with military operations. In addition to the risk uniquely encountered by military populations, other factors have driven the worldwide emergence of VBIs. Unprecedented levels of global travel, tourism and trade, and blurred lines of demarcation between zoonotic VBI reservoirs and human populations increase vector exposure. Urban growth in previously undeveloped regions and perturbations in global weather patterns also contribute to the rise of VBIs. The Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center-Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) and its partners at DoD overseas laboratories form a network to better characterize the nature, emergence and growth of VBIs globally. In 2009 the network tested 19,730 specimens from 25 sites for Plasmodium species and malaria drug resistance phenotypes and nearly another 10,000 samples to determine the etiologies of non-Plasmodium species VBIs from regions spanning from Oceania to Africa, South America, and northeast, south and Southeast Asia. This review describes recent VBI-related epidemiological studies conducted by AFHSC-GEIS partner laboratories within the OCONUS DoD laboratory network emphasizing their impact on human populations.

Applying information and communications technologies to collect health data from remote settings: a systematic assessment of current technologies.

Modern information and communications technologies (ICTs) are now so feature-rich and widely available that they can be used to "capture," or collect and transmit, health data from remote settings. Electronic data capture can reduce the time necessary to notify public health authorities, and provide important baseline information. A number of electronic health data capture systems based on specific ICTs have been developed for remote areas. We expand on that body of work by defining and applying an assessment process to characterize ICTs for remote-area health data capture. The process is based on technical criteria, and assesses the feasibility and effectiveness of specific technologies according to the resources and constraints of a given setting. Our characterization of current ICTs compares different system architectures for remote-area health data capture systems. Ultimately, we believe that our criteria-based assessment process will remain useful for characterizing future ICTs.

International Health Regulations (2005) and the U.S. Department of Defense: building core capacities on a foundation of partnership and trust.

A cornerstone of effective global health surveillance programs is the ability to build systems that identify, track and respond to public health threats in a timely manner. These functions are often difficult and require international cooperation given the rapidity with which diseases cross national borders and spread throughout the global community as a result of travel and migration by both humans and animals. As part of the U.S. Armed Forces Health Surveillance Center (AFHSC), the Department of Defense's (DoD) Global Emerging Infections Surveillance and Response System (AFHSC-GEIS) has developed a global network of surveillance sites over the past decade that engages in a wide spectrum of support activities in collaboration with host country partners. Many of these activities are in direct support of International Health Regulations (IHR[2005]). The network also supports host country military forces around the world, which are equally affected by these threats and are often in a unique position to respond in areas of conflict or during complex emergencies. With IHR(2005) as the guiding framework for action, the AFHSC-GEIS network of international partners and overseas research laboratories continues to develop into a far-reaching system for identifying, analyzing and responding to emerging disease threats.

Avian influenza in wild birds, central coast of Peru.

To determine genotypes of avian influenza virus circulating among wild birds in South America, we collected and tested environmental fecal samples from birds along the coast of Peru, June 2006-December 2007. The 9 isolates recovered represented 4 low-pathogenicity avian influenza strains: subtypes H3N8, H4N5, H10N9, and H13N2.

Histamine levels in fish from markets in Lima, Perú.

Illnesses associated with seafood are an important public health concern worldwide, particularly considering the steady increase in seafood consumption. However, research about the risks associated with seafood products is scarce in developing countries. Histamine fish poisoning is the most common form of fish intoxication caused by seafood and usually presents as an allergic reaction. This condition occurs when fish are not kept appropriately refrigerated and histamine is formed in the tissues. Histamine levels of > 500 ppm usually are associated with clinical illness. We assessed histamine levels in fish from markets in Lima, Peru, with a quantitative competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Thirty-eight specimens were purchased from wholesale and retail markets: 17 bonito (Sarda sarda), 16 mackerel (Scomber japonicus peruanus), and 5 mahi-mahi (Coryphaena hippurus). Seven fish (18%) had histamine levels of 1 to 10 ppm (three mackerel and four bonito) and three (8%) had > 10 ppm (three mackerel, 35 to 86 ppm). Fish from retail markets had detectable histamine levels (> 1 ppm) more frequently than did fish bought at wholesale fish markets: 9 (36%) of 25 fish versus 1 (8%) of 13 fish, respectively (P = 0.063). Higher histamine levels were correlated with later time of purchase during the day (Spearman's rho = 0.37, P = 0.024). Mackerel purchased at retail markets after 2 p.m. had a 75% prevalence of histamine levels of > 10 ppm. Mackerel purchased late in the day in retail markets frequently contained high histamine levels, although the overall prevalence of elevated histamine levels was low. Despite the small sample, our findings highlight the need to reinforce seafood safety regulations and quality control in developing countries such as Peru.