Towards transferability in fish migration models: A generic operational tool for predicting silver eel migration in rivers.

In the global context of river fragmentation, predicting fish migration is urgent to implement management actions aimed at protecting and promoting the free movement of diadromous fish. However, large-scale applicability of conservation measures requires transferable models that enable prediction of migration even in data-poor regions. Here, we surveyed 12 contrasted European river sites to predict the activity peaks of silver eels (Anguilla anguilla) during river migration towards spawning areas through an ensemble modelling approach. Site-specific Boosted Regression Tree (BRT) models were adjusted using standardized hydrological variables to predict migration probability, which were aggregated in consensus predictions. Results of independent cross-validations demonstrated that silver eel migration runs were accurately predicted in response to changes in river discharge. Transferability and predictive performance were improved by considering catchment-size dissimilarity between river sites (85 to 109,930 km2) when combining the site-specific predictions. Nevertheless, we provided two examples for which the effects of human actions on flow conditions were so high that they prevented reliable predictions of migration runs. Further contributions should thus take advantage of the flexibility of our approach for updating model collection with new sites to extend the predictive performance under a larger range of ecological conditions. Our transferable hydrological-based modelling framework offers an opportunity to implement large-scale management strategies for eel conservation, even in rivers where eel monitoring data lack. The BRT models and prediction functions were compiled in an R package named 'silvRpeak' to facilitate operational implementation by end-user managers, which can determine when mitigation measures should be implemented to improve river continuity (e.g. turbine shutdown and sluice gate opening) and balance their economic activity towards eel conservation. The only input required is discharge records that are widely available across European hydrological stations.

Assessment of the quality of European silver eels and tentative approach to trace the origin of contaminants - A European overview.

The European eel is critically endangered. Although the quality of silver eels is essential for their reproduction, little is known about the effects of multiple contaminants on the spawning migration and the European eel management plan does not take this into account. To address this knowledge gap, we sampled 482 silver eels from 12 catchments across Europe and developed methods to assess three aspects of eel quality: muscular lipid content (N = 169 eels), infection with Anguillicola crassus (N = 482), and contamination by persistent organic pollutants (POPs, N = 169) and trace elements (TEs, N = 75). We developed a standardized eel quality risks index (EQR) using these aspects for the subsample of 75 female eels. Among 169 eels, 33% seem to have enough muscular lipids content to reach the Sargasso Sea to reproduce. Among 482 silver eels, 93% were infected by A. crassus at least once during their lifetime. All contaminants were above the limit of quantification, except the 1,2-bis(2,4,6-tribromophenoxy)ethane (BTBPE), Ag and V. The contamination by POPs was heterogeneous between catchments while TEs were relatively homogeneous, suggesting a multi-scale adaptation of management plans. The EQR revealed that eels from Warwickshire were most impacted by brominated flame-retardants and agricultural contaminants, those from Scheldt were most impacted by agricultural and construction activities, PCBs, coal burning, and land use, while Frémur eels were best characterized by lower lipid contents and high parasitic and BTBPE levels. There was a positive correlation between EQR and a human footprint index highlighting the capacity of silver eels for biomonitoring human activities and the potential impact on the suitability of the aquatic environment for eel population health. EQR therefore represents a step forward in the standardization and mapping of eel quality risks, which will help identify priorities and strategies for restocking freshwater ecosystems.