Leveraging risk assessment for foodborne outbreak investigations: The Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model.

Root cause analysis can be used in foodborne illness outbreak investigations to determine the underlying causes of an outbreak and to help identify actions that could be taken to prevent future outbreaks. We developed a new tool, the Quantitative Risk Assessment-Epidemic Curve Prediction Model (QRA-EC), to assist with these goals and applied it to a case study to investigate and illustrate the utility of leveraging quantitative risk assessment to provide unique insights for foodborne illness outbreak root cause analysis. We used a 2019 Salmonella outbreak linked to melons as a case study to demonstrate the utility of this model (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], 2019). The model was used to evaluate the impact of various root cause hypotheses (representing different contamination sources and food safety system failures in the melon supply chain) on the predicted number and timeline of illnesses. The predicted number of illnesses varied by contamination source and was strongly impacted by the prevalence and level of Salmonella contamination on the surface/inside of whole melons and inside contamination niches on equipment surfaces. The timeline of illnesses was most strongly impacted by equipment sanitation efficacy for contamination niches. Evaluations of a wide range of scenarios representing various potential root causes enabled us to identify which hypotheses, were likely to result in an outbreak of similar size and illness timeline to the 2019 Salmonella melon outbreak. The QRA-EC framework can be adapted to accommodate any food-pathogen pairs to provide insights for foodborne outbreak investigations.

Molecular Investigation of Canine Parvovirus-2 (CPV-2) Outbreak in Nevis Island: Analysis of the Nearly Complete Genomes of CPV-2 Strains from the Caribbean Region.

To date, there is a dearth of information on canine parvovirus-2 (CPV-2) from the Caribbean region. During August-October 2020, the veterinary clinic on the Caribbean island of Nevis reported 64 household dogs with CPV-2-like clinical signs (hemorrhagic/non-hemorrhagic diarrhea and vomiting), of which 27 animals died. Rectal swabs/fecal samples were obtained from 43 dogs. A total of 39 of the 43 dogs tested positive for CPV-2 antigen and/or DNA, while 4 samples, negative for CPV-2 antigen, were not available for PCR. Among the 21 untested dogs, 15 had CPV-2 positive littermates. Analysis of the complete VP2 sequences of 32 strains identified new CPV-2a (CPV-2a with Ser297Ala in VP2) as the predominant CPV-2 on Nevis Island. Two nonsynonymous mutations, one rare (Asp373Asn) and the other uncommon (Ala262Thr), were observed in a few VP2 sequences. It was intriguing that new CPV-2a was associated with an outbreak of gastroenteritis on Nevis while found at low frequencies in sporadic cases of diarrhea on the neighboring island of St. Kitts. The nearly complete CPV-2 genomes (4 CPV-2 strains from St. Kitts and Nevis (SKN)) were reported for the first time from the Caribbean region. Eleven substitutions were found among the SKN genomes, which included nine synonymous substitutions, five of which have been rarely reported, and the two nonsynonymous substitutions. Phylogenetically, the SKN CPV-2 sequences formed a distinct cluster, with CPV-2b/USA/1998 strains constituting the nearest cluster. Our findings suggested that new CPV-2a is endemic in the region, with the potential to cause severe outbreaks, warranting further studies across the Caribbean Islands. Analysis of the SKN CPV-2 genomes corroborated the hypothesis that recurrent parallel evolution and reversion might play important roles in the evolution of CPV-2.