Multivariable prognostic modelling to improve prediction of colorectal cancer recurrence: the PROSPeCT trial.

OBJECTIVE: Improving prognostication to direct personalised therapy remains an unmet need. This study prospectively investigated promising CT, genetic, and immunohistochemical markers to improve the prediction of colorectal cancer recurrence. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This multicentre trial (ISRCTN 95037515) recruited patients with primary colorectal cancer undergoing CT staging from 13 hospitals. Follow-up identified cancer recurrence and death. A baseline model for cancer recurrence at 3 years was developed from pre-specified clinicopathological variables (age, sex, tumour-node stage, tumour size, location, extramural venous invasion, and treatment). Then, CT perfusion (blood flow, blood volume, transit time and permeability), genetic (RAS, RAF, and DNA mismatch repair), and immunohistochemical markers of angiogenesis and hypoxia (CD105, vascular endothelial growth factor, glucose transporter protein, and hypoxia-inducible factor) were added to assess whether prediction improved over tumour-node staging alone as the main outcome measure. RESULTS: Three hundred twenty-six of 448 participants formed the final cohort (226 male; mean 66 ± 10 years. 227 (70%) had ≥ T3 stage cancers; 151 (46%) were node-positive; 81 (25%) developed subsequent recurrence. The sensitivity and specificity of staging alone for recurrence were 0.56 [95% CI: 0.44, 0.67] and 0.58 [0.51, 0.64], respectively. The baseline clinicopathologic model improved specificity (0.74 [0.68, 0.79], with equivalent sensitivity of 0.57 [0.45, 0.68] for high vs medium/low-risk participants. The addition of prespecified CT perfusion, genetic, and immunohistochemical markers did not improve prediction over and above the clinicopathologic model (sensitivity, 0.58-0.68; specificity, 0.75-0.76). CONCLUSION: A multivariable clinicopathological model outperformed staging in identifying patients at high risk of recurrence. Promising CT, genetic, and immunohistochemical markers investigated did not further improve prognostication in rigorous prospective evaluation. CLINICAL RELEVANCE STATEMENT: A prognostic model based on clinicopathological variables including age, sex, tumour-node stage, size, location, and extramural venous invasion better identifies colorectal cancer patients at high risk of recurrence for neoadjuvant/adjuvant therapy than stage alone. KEY POINTS: Identification of colorectal cancer patients at high risk of recurrence is an unmet need for treatment personalisation. This model for recurrence, incorporating many patient variables, had higher specificity than staging alone. Continued optimisation of risk stratification schema will help individualise treatment plans and follow-up schedules.

Diagnostic evaluation of upper tract urothelial carcinoma: can we safely omit diagnostic ureteroscopy?

OBJECTIVE: To identify clinicopathological or radiological factors that may predict a diagnosis of upper urinary tract urothelial cell carcinoma (UTUC) to inform which patients can proceed directly to radical nephroureterectomy (RNU) without the delay for diagnostic ureteroscopy (URS). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All consecutive patients investigated for suspected UTUC in a high-volume UK centre between 2011 and 2017 were identified through retrospective analysis of surgical logbooks and a prospectively maintained pathology database. Details on clinical presentation, radiological findings, and URS/RNU histopathology results were evaluated. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to evaluate predictors of a final diagnosis of UTUC. RESULTS: In all, 260 patients were investigated, of whom 230 (89.2%) underwent URS. RNU was performed in 131 patients (50.4%), of whom 25 (9.6%) proceeded directly without URS - all of whom had a final histopathological diagnosis of UTUC - and 15 (11.5%) underwent RNU after URS despite no conclusive histopathological confirmation of UTUC. Major surgery was avoided in 77 patients (33.5%) where a benign or alternative diagnosis was made on URS, and 14 patients (6.1%) underwent nephron-sparing surgery. Overall, 178 patients (68.5%) had a final diagnosis of UTUC confirmed on URS/RNU histopathology. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, a presenting complaint of visible haematuria (hazard ratio [HR] 5.17, confidence interval [CI] 1.91-14.0; P = 0.001), a solid lesion reported on imaging (HR 37.8, CI = 11.7-122.1; P < 0.001) and a history of smoking (HR 3.07, CI 1.35-6.97; P = 0.007), were predictive of a final diagnosis of UTUC. From this cohort, 51 (96.2%) of 53 smokers who presented with visible haematuria and who had a solid lesion on computed tomography urogram had UTUC on final histopathology. CONCLUSION: We identified specific factors which may assist clinicians in selecting which patients may reliably proceed to RNU without the delay of diagnostic URS. These findings may inform a prospective multicentre analysis including additional variables such as urinary cytology.

Risk factors and titers of COVID-19 infection in a longitudinal statewide seroepidemiology cohort.

BACKGROUND: Virginia is a large state in the USA, yet it remains unclear what percentage of the population has had natural COVID-19 infection and whether risk factors for infection have changed over time. METHODS: Using a longitudinal cohort, from December 2021-July 2022 we performed follow up serology and a questionnaire on 784 individuals from across Virginia who had previously participated in a statewide COVID-19 seroepidemiology study in 2020. Children were also invited to participate and an additional 62 children also completed the study. Serology was performed using Roche nucleocapsid and spike serological assays. RESULTS: The majority of participants were white (78.6%), over 50 years old (60.9%), and reported having received COVID-19 vaccine (93.4%). 28.6% had evidence of prior COVID-19 infection (nucleocapsid positive). Reweighted by region, age, and sex to match the Virginia census data, the seroprevalence of nucleocapsid antibodies was estimated to be 30.6% (95% CI: 24.7, 36.6). We estimated that 25-53% of COVID-19 infections were asymptomatic. Infection rates were lower in individuals > 60 years old and were higher in Blacks and Hispanics. Infection rates were also higher in those without health insurance, in those with greater numbers of household children, and in those that reported a close contact or having undergone quarantine for COVID-19. Participants from Southwest Virginia had lower seropositivity (16.2%, 95% CI 6.5, 26.0) than other geographic regions. Boosted vaccinees had lower infection rates than non-boosted vaccinees. Frequenting indoor bars was a risk factor for infection, while frequently wearing an N95 mask was protective, though the estimates of association were imprecise. Infection rates were higher in children than adults (56.5% vs. 28.6%). Infection in the parent was a risk factor for child infection. Spike antibody levels declined with time since last vaccination, particularly in those that were vaccinated but not previously infected. Neutralizing antibody positivity was high (97-99%) for wild type, alpha, beta, gamma, delta, and omicron variants. Neutralizing antibody levels were higher in the follow-up survey compared to the first survey in 2020 and among individuals with evidence of natural infection compared to those without. CONCLUSIONS: In this longitudinal statewide cohort we observed a lower-than-expected COVID-19 infection rate as of August 2022. Boosted vaccinees had lower infection rates. Children had higher infection rates and infections tracked within households. Previously identified demographic risk factors for infection tended to persist. Even after the omicron peak, a large number of Virginians remain uninfected with COVID-19, underscoring the need for ongoing vaccination strategies.

Concentric Cardiac Remodeling and Hypertrophy in Pregnant Individuals with Chronic Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate rates of superimposed preeclampsia in pregnant individuals with echocardiography-diagnosed cardiac geometric changes in the setting of chronic hypertension. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective study of pregnant individuals with chronic hypertension who delivered singleton pregnancies at 20 weeks' gestation or greater at a tertiary care center. Analyses were limited to individuals who had an echocardiogram during any trimester. Cardiac changes were categorized as normal morphology, concentric remodeling, eccentric hypertrophy, and concentric hypertrophy according to the American Society of Echocardiography guidelines. Our primary outcome was early-onset superimposed preeclampsia defined as delivery at less than 34 weeks' gestation. Other secondary outcomes were also examined. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated, controlling for prespecified covariates. RESULTS: Of the 168 individuals who delivered from 2010 to 2020, 57 (33.9%) had normal morphology, 54 (32.1%) had concentric remodeling, 9 (5.4%) had eccentric hypertrophy, and 48 (28.6%) had concentric hypertrophy. Non-Hispanic black individuals presented over 76% of the cohort. Rates of the primary outcome in individuals with normal morphology, concentric remodeling, eccentric hypertrophy, and concentric hypertrophy were 15.8, 37.0, 22.2, and 41.7%, respectively (p = 0.01). Compared with individuals with normal morphology, individuals with concentric remodeling were more likely to have the primary outcome (aOR: 3.28; 95% CI: 1.28-8.39), fetal growth restriction (crude OR: 2.98; 95% CI: 1.05-8.43), and iatrogenic preterm delivery <34 weeks' gestation (aOR: 2.72; 95% CI: 1.15-6.40). Compared with individuals with normal morphology, individuals with concentric hypertrophy were more likely to have the primary outcome (aOR: 4.16; 95% CI: 1.57-10.97), superimposed preeclampsia with severe features at any gestational age (aOR: 4.75; 95% CI: 1.94-11.62), iatrogenic preterm delivery <34 weeks' gestation (aOR: 3.60; 95% CI: 1.47-8.81), and neonatal intensive care unit admission (aOR: 4.82; 95% CI: 1.90-12.21). CONCLUSION: Concentric remodeling and concentric hypertrophy were associated with increased odds of early-onset superimposed preeclampsia. KEY POINTS: · Concentric remodeling and concentric hypertrophy were associated with an increased risk of superimposed preeclampsia.. · Concentric hypertrophy was associated with an increased risk of delivery at less than 34 weeks.. · Two-thirds of the individuals in our study had concentric hypertrophy and concentric remodeling..

Empagliflozin Effects on Pulmonary Artery Pressure in Patients With Heart Failure: Results From the EMBRACE-HF Trial.

BACKGROUND: Sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2 inhibitors) prevent heart failure (HF) hospitalizations in patients with type 2 diabetes and improve outcomes in those with HF and reduced ejection fraction, regardless of type 2 diabetes. Mechanisms of HF benefits remain unclear, and the effects of SGLT2 inhibitor on hemodynamics (filling pressures) are not known. The EMBRACE-HF trial (Empagliflozin Evaluation by Measuring Impact on Hemodynamics in Patients With Heart Failure) was designed to address this knowledge gap. METHODS: EMBRACE-HF is an investigator-initiated, randomized, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. From July 2017 to November 2019, patients with HF (regardless of ejection fraction, with or without type 2 diabetes) and previously implanted pulmonary artery (PA) pressure sensor (CardioMEMS) were randomized across 10 US centers to empagliflozin 10 mg daily or placebo and treated for 12 weeks. The primary end point was change in PA diastolic pressure (PADP) from baseline to end of treatment (average PADP weeks 8-12). Secondary end points included health status (Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire score), natriuretic peptides, and 6-min walking distance. RESULTS: Overall, 93 patients were screened, and 65 were randomized (33 to empagliflozin, 32 to placebo). The mean age was 66 years; 63% were male; 52% had type 2 diabetes; 54% were in New York Heart Association class III/IV; mean ejection fraction was 44%; median NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide) was 637 pg/mL; and mean PADP was 22 mm Hg. Empagliflozin significantly reduced PADP, with effects that began at week 1 and amplified over time; average PADP (weeks 8-12) was 1.5 mm Hg lower (95% CI, 0.2-2.8; P=0.02); and at week 12, PADP was 1.7 mm Hg lower (95% CI, 0.3-3.2; P=0.02) with empagliflozin versus placebo. Results were consistent for PA systolic and PA mean pressures. There was no difference in mean loop diuretic management (daily furosemide equivalents) between treatment groups. No significant differences between treatment groups were observed in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire scores, natriuretic peptide levels, and 6-min walking distance. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HF and CardioMEMS PA pressure sensor, empagliflozin produced rapid reductions in PA pressures that were amplified over time and appeared to be independent of loop diuretic management. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03030222.

The Role of the Electrocardiogram in Pregnant Individuals with Chronic Hypertension.

OBJECTIVE: The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists suggests that an electrocardiogram is an acceptable first-line test. We sought to examine whether an electrocardiogram is a sufficient screening tool to identify echocardiogram-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy. We also sought to determine risk factors associated with left ventricular hypertrophy. STUDY DESIGN: This was a retrospective cohort study of pregnant individuals with chronic hypertension who delivered at 20 weeks' gestation or greater at a tertiary care center. Analyses were limited to individuals who had both electrocardiogram and echocardiogram during pregnancy. Left ventricular hypertrophy was diagnosed using the American Society of Echocardiography guidelines. Maternal demographics and electrocardiogram results were compared between individuals with left ventricular hypertrophy and those without left ventricular hypertrophy. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of the electrocardiogram to identify left ventricular hypertrophy were also calculated. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated, controlling for covariates. RESULTS: Of 172 individuals, 60 (34.9%) had left ventricular hypertrophy. The sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio of the electrocardiogram to identify echocardiogram-diagnosed left ventricular hypertrophy was 18.3% (95% CI: 9.5-30.4), 91.1% (95% CI: 84.2-95.6), 2.05 (95% CI: 0.93-4.56), and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.78-1.02), respectively. Compared with individuals without left ventricular hypertrophy, those with left ventricular hypertrophy were more likely to have hypertension of 4 years' duration or longer (aOR = 4.01; 95% CI: 1.71-9.42), unknown duration of hypertension (aOR = 4.66; 95% CI: 1.28-17.04), and higher body mass index (aOR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.07). After adjusting for covariates, left ventricular hypertrophy by electrocardiogram was not associated with actual left ventricular hypertrophy (aOR = 2.59; 95% CI: 0.94-7.10). CONCLUSION: Electrocardiogram was not a sufficient test for identifying left ventricular hypertrophy in pregnant individuals with chronic hypertension. We suggest an echocardiogram evaluation for all individuals with chronic hypertension. KEY POINTS: · The first-line test for cardiac evaluation is an electrocardiogram.. · In our cohort, the rate of left ventricular hypertrophy was 35%.. · The electrocardiogram was not sensitive to detect left ventricular hypertrophy..

Perceived Stress After Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Comparison Between Young and Middle-Aged Women Versus Men.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine how psychological stress changes over time in young and middle-aged patients after experiencing an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and whether these changes differ between men and women. METHODS: We analyzed data obtained from 2358 women and 1151 men aged 18 to 55 years hospitalized for AMI. Psychological stress was measured using the 14-item Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-14) at initial hospitalization and at 1 month and 12 months after AMI. We used linear mixed-effects models to examine changes in PSS-14 scores over time and sex differences in these changes, while adjusting for patient characteristics and accounting for correlation among repeated observations within patients. RESULTS: Overall, patients' perceived stress decreased over time, especially during the first month after AMI. Women had higher levels of perceived stress than men throughout the 12-month period (difference in PSS-14 score = 3.63, 95% confidence interval = 3.08 to 4.18, p < .001), but they did not differ in how stress changed over time. Adjustment for patient characteristics did not alter the overall pattern of sex difference in changes of perceived stress over time other than attenuating the magnitude of sex difference in PSS-14 score (difference between women and men = 1.74, 95% confidence interval = 1.32 to 2.16, p < .001). The magnitude of sex differences in perceived stress was similar in patients with versus without post-AMI angina, even though patients with angina experienced less improvement in PSS-14 score than those without angina. CONCLUSIONS: In young and middle-aged patients with AMI, women reported higher levels of perceived stress than men throughout the first 12 months of recovery. However, women and men had a similar pattern in how perceived stress changed over time.

Relation between door-to-balloon times and mortality after primary percutaneous coronary intervention over time: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Recent reductions in average door-to-balloon (D2B) times have not been associated with decreases in mortality at the population level. We investigated this seemingly paradoxical finding by assessing components of this association at the individual and population levels simultaneously. We postulated that the changing population of patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) contributed to secular trends toward an increasing mortality risk, despite consistently decreased mortality in individual patients with shorter D2B times. METHODS: This was a retrospective study of ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients who underwent pPCI between Jan 1, 2005, and Dec 31, 2011, in the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR) CathPCI Registry. We looked for catheterisation laboratory visits associated with STEMI. We excluded patients not undergoing pPCI, transfer patients for pPCI, patients with D2B times less than 15 min or more than 3 h, and patients at hospitals that did not consistently report data across the study period. We assessed in-hospital mortality in the entire cohort and 6-month mortality in elderly patients aged 65 years or older matched to data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. We built multilevel models to assess the relation between D2B time and in-hospital and 6-month mortality, including both individual and population-level components of this association after adjusting for patient and procedural factors. FINDINGS: 423 hospitals reported data on 150,116 procedures with a 55% increase in the number of patients undergoing pPCI at these facilities over time, as well as many changes in patient and procedural factors. Annual D2B times decreased significantly from a median of 86 min (IQR 65-109) in 2005 to 63 min (IQR 47-80) in 2011 (p<0·0001) with a concurrent rise in risk-adjusted in-hospital mortality (from 4·7% to 5·3%; p=0·06) and risk-adjusted 6-month mortality (from 12·9% to 14·4%; p=0·001). In multilevel models, shorter patient-specific D2B times were consistently associated at the individual level with lower in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR for each 10 min decrease 0·92; 95% CI 0·91-0·93; p<0·0001) and 6-month mortality (adjusted OR for each 10 min decrease, 0·94; 95% CI 0·93-0·95; p<0·0001). By contrast, risk-adjusted in-hospital and 6-month mortality at the population level, independent of patient-specific D2B times, rose in the growing and changing population of patients undergoing pPCI during the study period. INTERPRETATION: Shorter patient-specific D2B times were consistently associated with lower mortality over time, whereas secular trends suggest increased mortality risk in the growing and changing pPCI population. The absence of association of annual D2B time and changes in mortality at the population level should not be interpreted as an indication of its individual-level relation in patients with STEMI undergoing primary PCI. FUNDING: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Comparison of clinical interpretation with visual assessment and quantitative coronary angiography in patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention in contemporary practice: the Assessing Angiography (A2) project.

BACKGROUND: Studies conducted decades ago described substantial disagreement and errors in physicians' angiographic interpretation of coronary stenosis severity. Despite the potential implications of such findings, no large-scale efforts to measure or improve clinical interpretation were subsequently undertaken. METHODS AND RESULTS: We compared clinical interpretation of stenosis severity in coronary lesions with an independent assessment using quantitative coronary angiography (QCA) in 175 randomly selected patients undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention at 7 US hospitals in 2011. To assess agreement, we calculated mean difference in percent diameter stenosis between clinical interpretation and QCA and a Cohen weighted κ statistic. Of 216 treated lesions, median percent diameter stenosis was 80.0% (quartiles 1 and 3, 80.0% and 90.0%), with 213 (98.6%) assessed as ≥70%. Mean difference in percent diameter stenosis between clinical interpretation and QCA was 8.2±8.4%, reflecting an average higher percent diameter stenosis by clinical interpretation (P<0.001). A weighted κ of 0.27 (95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.36) was found between the 2 measurements. Of 213 lesions considered ≥70% by clinical interpretation, 56 (26.3%) were <70% by QCA, although none were <50%. Differences between the 2 measurements were largest for intermediate lesions by QCA (50% to <70%), with variation existing across sites. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians tended to assess coronary lesions treated with percutaneous coronary intervention as more severe than measurements by QCA. Almost all treated lesions were ≥70% by clinical interpretation, whereas approximately one quarter were <70% by QCA. These findings suggest opportunities to improve clinical interpretation of coronary angiography.

New anticoagulants and antiplatelet agents: a primer for the clinical gastroenterologist.

The discovery of the first oral anticoagulant, warfarin, was a milestone in anticoagulation. Warfarin's well-known limitations, however, have led to the recent development of more effective anticoagulants. The rapidly growing list of these drugs, however, presents a challenge to endoscopists who must treat patients on these sundry medications. This review is intended to summarize the pharmacological highlights of new anticoagulants, with particular attention to suggested "best-practice" recommendations for the withholding of these drugs before endoscopic procedures.

Hypertension Trends and Disparities Over 12 Years in a Large Health System: Leveraging the Electronic Health Records.

BACKGROUND: The digital transformation of medical data enables health systems to leverage real-world data from electronic health records to gain actionable insights for improving hypertension care. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a serial cross-sectional analysis of outpatients of a large regional health system from 2010 to 2021. Hypertension was defined by systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg, diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or recorded treatment with antihypertension medications. We evaluated 4 methods of using blood pressure measurements in the electronic health record to define hypertension. The primary outcomes were age-adjusted prevalence rates and age-adjusted control rates. Hypertension prevalence varied depending on the definition used, ranging from 36.5% to 50.9% initially and increasing over time by ≈5%, regardless of the definition used. Control rates ranged from 61.2% to 71.3% initially, increased during 2018 to 2019, and decreased during 2020 to 2021. The proportion of patients with a hypertension diagnosis ranged from 45.5% to 60.2% initially and improved during the study period. Non-Hispanic Black patients represented 25% of our regional population and consistently had higher prevalence rates, higher mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and lower control rates compared with other racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: In a large regional health system, we leveraged the electronic health record to provide real-world insights. The findings largely reflected national trends but showed distinctive regional demographics and findings, with prevalence increasing, one-quarter of the patients not controlled, and marked disparities. This approach could be emulated by regional health systems seeking to improve hypertension care.

Sex Differences in Symptom Complexity and Door-to-Balloon Time in Patients With ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

Greater symptom complexity in women than in men could slow acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) recognition and delay door-to-balloon (D2B) times. We sought to determine the sex differences in symptom complexity and their relation to D2B times in 1,677 young and older patients with STEMI using data from the VIRGO and SILVER-AMI studies. Symptom complexity was defined by the number of symptom patterns or phenotypes and average number of symptoms. The numbers of symptom phenotypes were compared in women and men using the Monte Carlo permutation testing. Groups were also compared using the generalized linear regression and logistic regression. The number of symptom phenotypes (244 vs 171, p = 0.02), mean number of symptoms (4.7 vs 4.2, p <0.001), and mean D2B time (114.6 vs 97.8 minutes, p = 0.004) were greater in young women than in young men but were not significantly different in older women compared with older men. The regression analysis did not show a relation between symptom complexity and D2B time overall; although, chest pain was a significant predictor of D2B times, and young women were more likely to report symptoms other than chest pain. Among patients with STEMI, 36% did not receive percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), which was associated with presentation delay >6 hours. In patients with STEMI with either D2B time ≥90 minutes or no PCI, women had significantly more symptom phenotypes overall and in VIRGO but not in SILVER-AMI. In conclusion, the markers of symptom complexity were not associated with D2B time overall, but more symptom phenotypes in young women were associated with prolonged D2B time or no PCI. In addition, greater frequency of nonchest pain symptoms in young women may have also slowed the recognition of STEMI and D2B times in young women. Further research on symptoms clusters is needed to improve the recognition of STEMIs to improve the D2B times in young women.

Diagnostic reasoning in cardiovascular medicine.

Research in cognitive psychology shows that expert clinicians make a medical diagnosis through a two step process of hypothesis generation and hypothesis testing. Experts generate a list of possible diagnoses quickly and intuitively, drawing on previous experience. Experts remember specific examples of various disease categories as exemplars, which enables rapid access to diagnostic possibilities and gives them an intuitive sense of the base rates of various diagnoses. After generating diagnostic hypotheses, clinicians then test the hypotheses and subjectively estimate the probability of each diagnostic possibility by using a heuristic called anchoring and adjusting. Although both novices and experts use this two step diagnostic process, experts distinguish themselves as better diagnosticians through their ability to mobilize experiential knowledge in a manner that is content specific. Experience is clearly the best teacher, but some educational strategies have been shown to modestly improve diagnostic accuracy. Increased knowledge about the cognitive psychology of the diagnostic process and the pitfalls inherent in the process may inform clinical teachers and help learners and clinicians to improve the accuracy of diagnostic reasoning. This article reviews the literature on the cognitive psychology of diagnostic reasoning in the context of cardiovascular disease.

Sex Differences in Symptom Phenotypes Among Older Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction.

BACKGROUND: Clinicians make a medical diagnosis by recognizing diagnostic possibilities, often using memories of prior examples. These memories, called "exemplars," reflect specific symptom combinations in individual patients, yet most clinical studies report how symptoms aggregate in populations. We studied how symptoms of acute myocardial infarction combine in individuals as symptom phenotypes and how symptom phenotypes are distributed in women and men. METHODS: In this analysis of the SILVER-AMI Study, we studied 3041 patients (1346 women and 1645 men) 75 years of age or older with acute myocardial infarction. Each patient had a standardized in-person interview during the acute myocardial infarction admission to document the presenting symptoms, which enabled a thorough examination of symptom combinations in individuals. Specific symptom combinations defined symptom phenotypes and distributions of symptom phenotypes were compared in women and men using Monte Carlo permutation testing and repeated subsampling. RESULTS: There were 1469 unique symptom phenotypes in the entire SILVER-AMI cohort of patients with acute myocardial infarction. There were 831 unique symptom phenotypes in women, as compared with 819 in men, which was highly significant, given the larger number of men than women in the study (P < .0001). Women had significantly more symptom phenotypes than men in almost all acute myocardial infarction subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients with acute myocardial infarction have enormous variation in symptom phenotypes. Women reported more symptoms and had significantly more symptom phenotypes than men. Appreciation of the diversity of symptom phenotypes may help clinicians recognize the less common phenotypes that occur more often in women.

Conceptual Framework for Personal Recovery in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Background Although there has been movement in cardiology to advance patient-centered approaches to postacute myocardial infarction (AMI) care, work remains to be done in aligning patient preferences with clinical care. Our objective was to characterize patients' experience of AMI and treatment to develop a new conceptual framework of patient-centered recovery in cardiology. Methods and Results We conducted in-depth interviews with people who previously experienced an AMI (2016-2019). The interview focused on participants' experiences of their recovery, which were audio-recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using a phenomenological framework. The overarching theme described by the 42 participants was feeling like a "different person" after the AMI. This shift manifested itself in both losses and gains, each of which posed new challenges to everyday life. The experience appeared to be an active process requiring people to take responsibility for their health. In terms of loss, participants describe how the AMI threatened their sense of safety and security and led to social isolation, fragility, uncertainty about the future, and difficulty expressing emotions accompanied this new fear. A conceptual framework describing the relationship between AMI, identity change, and functioning was developed. Conclusions Participants experienced the AMI as an unexpected disruption in their lives that had far-reaching effects on their daily functioning, and were resolved in numerous ways. The conceptual framework may assist in providing a theoretical basis for future interventions in cardiology that not only engage and retain patients in care but also improve long-term adherence to secondary prevention and other aspects of self-care.

Assessment of Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 and Risk Factors Associated With COVID-19 Infection Among Outpatients in Virginia.

Importance: Data from seroepidemiologic surveys measuring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exposure in diverse communities and ascertaining risk factors associated with infection are important to guide future prevention strategies. Objective: To assess the prevalence of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection across Virginia and the risk factors associated with infection after the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infections in the US. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this statewide cross-sectional surveillance study, 4675 adult outpatients presenting for health care not associated with COVID-19 in Virginia between June 1 and August 14, 2020, were recruited to participate in a questionnaire and receive venipuncture to assess SARS-CoV-2 serology. Eligibility was stratified to meet age, race, and ethnicity quotas that matched regional demographic profiles. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity, as measured by the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 immunoglobulin G assay. Results: Among 4675 adult outpatients (mean [SD] age, 48.8 [16.9] years; 3119 women [66.7%]; 3098 White [66.3%] and 4279 non-Hispanic [91.5%] individuals) presenting for non-COVID-19-associated health care across Virginia, the weighted seroprevalence was 2.4% (95% CI, 1.8%-3.1%) and ranged from 0% to 20% by zip code. Seroprevalence was notably higher among participants who were Hispanic (10.2%; 95% CI, 6.1%-14.3%), residing in the northern region (4.4%; 95% CI, 2.8%-6.1%), aged 40 to 49 years (4.4%; 95% CI, 1.8%-7.1%), and uninsured (5.9%; 95% CI, 1.5%-10.3%). Higher seroprevalence was associated with Hispanic ethnicity (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 3.56; 95% CI, 1.76-7.21), residence in a multifamily unit (aOR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.25-5.22), and contact with an individual with confirmed COVID-19 infection (aOR, 4.33; 95% CI, 1.77-10.58). The sensitivity of serology results was 94% (95% CI, 70%-100%) among those who reported receiving a previous polymerase chain reaction test for COVID-19 infection. Among 101 participants with seropositive results, 67 individuals (66.3%) were estimated to have asymptomatic infection. These data suggested a total estimated COVID-19 burden that was 2.8-fold higher than that ascertained by PCR-positive case counts. Conclusions and Relevance: This large statewide serologic study estimated that 2.4% of adults in Virginia had exposure to SARS-CoV-2, which was 2.8-fold higher than confirmed case counts. Hispanic ethnicity, residence in a multifamily unit, and contact with an individual with confirmed COVID-19 infection were significant risk factors associated with exposure. Most infections were asymptomatic. As of August 2020, the population in Virginia remained largely immunologically naive to the virus.

A statewide collaborative initiative to improve the quality of care for patients with acute myocardial infarction and heart failure.

BACKGROUND: To enhance quality improvement, we created a unique statewide collaboration among 3 organizations: the Virginia Health Quality Center (Virginia's Medicare Quality Improvement Organization), the American College of Cardiology, and the American Heart Association. The goal was to improve discharge measures for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS: In 2004, 29 hospitals participated in the collaborative initiative. Using Medicare data submitted from 2004 through the second quarter of 2006, we analyzed adherence to individual discharge measures and all-or-none appropriate care measures for acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, and both. To control for differences in hospital characteristics, we were able to match 21 of the participating hospitals with 21 similar nonparticipating hospitals. In this paired analysis, the total appropriate care measure increased from 61% to 77% in participating hospitals compared with an increase from 51% to 60% in nonparticipating hospitals (P<0.0001). A generalized linear mixed model examining the full data set at the patient level failed to show a clear advantage among participating hospitals. Participating hospitals had higher baseline rates for most quality measures, suggesting a possible effect of a prior collaborative. Further analysis of only hospitals that participated in a prior collaborative showed that participants in the current collaborative initiative had higher rates of improvement for 7 of 10 quality measures and appropriate care measures for heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, or both (all P<0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We report a unique collaboration of a Medicare Quality Improvement Organization and 2 national organizations to address quality of care for acute myocardial infarction and heart failure. A composite measure of quality (the total appropriate care measure) improved more in the participating hospitals during the timeframe of the intervention, although the greater improvement in this and other measures in the participating hospitals appeared to be dependent on participation in a prior collaborative initiative.

Blueprint for the dissemination of evidence-based practices in health care.

Aimed at fostering the broad adoption of effective health care interventions, this report proposes a blueprint for improving the dissemination of best practices by national quality improvement campaigns. The blueprint's eight key strategies are to: 1) highlight the evidence base and relative simplicity of recommended practices; 2) align campaigns with strategic goals of adopting organizations; 3) increase recruitment by integrating opinion leaders into the enrollment process; 4) form a coalition of credible campaign sponsors; 5) generate a threshold of participating organizations that maximizes network exchanges; 6) develop practical implementation tools and guides for key stakeholder groups; 7) create networks to foster learning opportunities; and 8) incorporate monitoring and evaluation of milestones and goals. The impact of quality campaigns also depends on contextual factors, including the nature of the innovation itself, external environmental incentives, and features of adopting organizations.

Maintenance of Competence in Cardiovascular Training and Practices: Worth the Effort?

Americans expect their doctors to have the competence to deliver high-quality care and expect safeguards to be in place that assure their doctors are competent. However, competence requires knowledge, and people have trouble assessing their own knowledge and level of competence. Because external assessment is required, several organizations have taken on the roles of defining and assuring medical competence. For example, professional organizations such as the American College of Cardiology (ACC) have developed consensus documents that define core competencies for cardiologists. External organizations such as the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and the American Board of Internal Medicine (ABIM) have defined training requirements for cardiologists, and the ABIM has developed a process to certify that physicians maintain their competence, although the process has generated considerable criticism from the profession. Recently, the ACC and ABIM have worked together to make the certification process less onerous and more meaningful. This paper provides a brief summary of the history and ongoing efforts to assure the competence of cardiologists.