Hoping for optimality or designing for inclusion: Persistence, learning, and the social network of citizen science.

The explosive growth in citizen science combined with a recalcitrance on the part of mainstream science to fully embrace this data collection technique demands a rigorous examination of the factors influencing data quality and project efficacy. Patterns of contributor effort and task performance have been well reviewed in online projects; however, studies of hands-on citizen science are lacking. We used a single hands-on, out-of-doors project-the Coastal Observation and Seabird Survey Team (COASST)-to quantitatively explore the relationships among participant effort, task performance, and social connectedness as a function of the demographic characteristics and interests of participants, placing these results in the context of a meta-analysis of 54 citizen science projects. Although online projects were typified by high (>90%) rates of one-off participation and low retention (<10%) past 1 y, regular COASST participants were highly likely to continue past their first survey (86%), with 54% active 1 y later. Project-wide, task performance was high (88% correct species identifications over the 31,450 carcasses and 163 species found). However, there were distinct demographic differences. Age, birding expertise, and previous citizen science experience had the greatest impact on participant persistence and performance, albeit occasionally in opposite directions. Gender and sociality were relatively inconsequential, although highly gregarious social types, i.e., "nexus people," were extremely influential at recruiting others. Our findings suggest that hands-on citizen science can produce high-quality data especially if participants persist, and that understanding the demographic data of participation could be used to maximize data quality and breadth of participation across the larger societal landscape.

How we count counts: Examining influences on detection during shoreline surveys of marine debris.

Shoreline surveys are a common approach for documenting loads of marine macrodebris (≥ 2.5 cm). When surveys are conducted repeatedly over time and space, patterns in source, abundance, geographic distribution, and composition can be detected. Yet to realize their full potential, monitoring programs that rely on surveys must grapple with high variability in debris abundance, and appropriately manage uncertainty when reporting estimates of debris quantity. A potentially important source of bias in estimating debris loads from shoreline monitoring datasets is variability in debris detection rates. With this in mind, we conducted field experiments using common strip-transect marine debris survey protocols, designed to test detection of macrodebris. We quantified how protocol, shoreline, and debris characteristics influence the detectability of marine macrodebris. Detection rates varied according to debris distance from observer (0-5 m), number of observers, debris characteristics (size, color), and shoreline substrate. Our results highlight considerations for monitoring program design. Comparisons across datasets should be approached cautiously given differences in survey protocols and sources of bias that may affect debris density estimates should be quantified and addressed. We hope these results will inform marine debris monitoring efforts that are optimized for intended data use and impact.

Towards a North Pacific long-term monitoring program for ocean plastic pollution: A systematic review and recommendations for shorelines.

Increased organized monitoring is key to improving our understanding of marine debris on shorelines. Shorelines are demonstrated sinks for marine debris but efforts to quantify debris often fail to capture and report core variables and survey design techniques necessary to ensure study repeatability, comparability and to provide meaningful results. Here, we systematically review the available literature regarding marine debris distribution and abundance on shorelines of countries bordering the North Pacific Ocean (NPO), which are demonstrated to have unusually high marine debris abundance and diversity both at the ocean surface and stranded on shorelines. The majority of the 81 papers documenting shoreline debris in the NPO were studies that took place for less than one year (76.5%). Additionally, most sampling sites were visited only once (57.3%). Precise site locations (GPS coordinates) were provided in only 44.4% of the evaluated studies. Debris quantities were reported using nine different measurement units, with item counts per area and item counts per mass being most commonly reported for macro- and microplastics, respectively. Taken together, most of the reviewed studies could not be repeated by others given the information provided. We propose a series of guidelines with regard to marine debris shoreline sampling metrics, indicators, methods, and target goals in the NPO in order to improve comparability and repeatability. These follow the basic tenets of environmental survey design, which when not accounted for, can limit the applicability and value of large-scale shoreline monitoring efforts.

Investigation of Algal Toxins in a Multispecies Seabird Die-Off in the Bering and Chukchi Seas.

Between 2014 and 2017, widespread seabird mortality events were documented annually in the Bering and Chukchi seas, concurrent with dramatic reductions of sea ice, warmer than average ocean temperatures, and rapid shifts in marine ecosystems. Among other changes in the marine environment, harmful algal blooms (HABs) that produce the neurotoxins saxitoxin (STX) and domoic acid (DA) have been identified as a growing concern in this region. Although STX and DA have been documented in Alaska (US) for decades, current projections suggest that the incidence of HABs is likely to increase with climate warming and may pose a threat to marine birds and other wildlife. In 2017, a multispecies die-off consisting of primarily Northern Fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) and Short-tailed Shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris) occurred in the Bering and Chukchi seas. To evaluate whether algal toxins may have contributed to bird mortality, we tested carcasses collected from multiple locations in western and northern Alaska for STX and DA. We did not detect DA in any samples, but STX was present in 60% of all individuals tested and in 88% of Northern Fulmars. Toxin concentrations in Northern Fulmars were within the range of those reported from other STX-induced bird die-offs, suggesting that STX may have contributed to mortalities. However, direct neurotoxic action by STX could not be confirmed and starvation appeared to be the proximate cause of death among birds examined in this study.

Extreme mortality and reproductive failure of common murres resulting from the northeast Pacific marine heatwave of 2014-2016.

About 62,000 dead or dying common murres (Uria aalge), the trophically dominant fish-eating seabird of the North Pacific, washed ashore between summer 2015 and spring 2016 on beaches from California to Alaska. Most birds were severely emaciated and, so far, no evidence for anything other than starvation was found to explain this mass mortality. Three-quarters of murres were found in the Gulf of Alaska and the remainder along the West Coast. Studies show that only a fraction of birds that die at sea typically wash ashore, and we estimate that total mortality approached 1 million birds. About two-thirds of murres killed were adults, a substantial blow to breeding populations. Additionally, 22 complete reproductive failures were observed at multiple colonies region-wide during (2015) and after (2016-2017) the mass mortality event. Die-offs and breeding failures occur sporadically in murres, but the magnitude, duration and spatial extent of this die-off, associated with multi-colony and multi-year reproductive failures, is unprecedented and astonishing. These events co-occurred with the most powerful marine heatwave on record that persisted through 2014-2016 and created an enormous volume of ocean water (the "Blob") from California to Alaska with temperatures that exceeded average by 2-3 standard deviations. Other studies indicate that this prolonged heatwave reduced phytoplankton biomass and restructured zooplankton communities in favor of lower-calorie species, while it simultaneously increased metabolically driven food demands of ectothermic forage fish. In response, forage fish quality and quantity diminished. Similarly, large ectothermic groundfish were thought to have increased their demand for forage fish, resulting in greater top-predator demands for diminished forage fish resources. We hypothesize that these bottom-up and top-down forces created an "ectothermic vise" on forage species leading to their system-wide scarcity and resulting in mass mortality of murres and many other fish, bird and mammal species in the region during 2014-2017.

Unusual mortality of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) in the eastern Bering Sea.

Mass mortality events are increasing in frequency and magnitude, potentially linked with ongoing climate change. In October 2016 through January 2017, St. Paul Island, Bering Sea, Alaska, experienced a mortality event of alcids (family: Alcidae), with over 350 carcasses recovered. Almost three-quarters of the carcasses were unscavenged, a rate much higher than in baseline surveys (17%), suggesting ongoing deposition and elevated mortality around St Paul over a 2-3 month period. Based on the observation that carcasses were not observed on the neighboring island of St. George, we bounded the at-sea distribution of moribund birds, and estimated all species mortality at 3,150 to 8,800 birds. The event was particularly anomalous given the late fall/winter timing when low numbers of beached birds are typical. In addition, the predominance of Tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata, 79% of carcass finds) and Crested auklets (Aethia cristatella, 11% of carcass finds) was unusual, as these species are nearly absent from long-term baseline surveys. Collected specimens were severely emaciated, suggesting starvation as the ultimate cause of mortality. The majority (95%, N = 245) of Tufted puffins were adults regrowing flight feathers, indicating a potential contribution of molt stress. Immediately prior to this event, shifts in zooplankton community composition and in forage fish distribution and energy density were documented in the eastern Bering Sea following a period of elevated sea surface temperatures, evidence cumulatively suggestive of a bottom-up shift in seabird prey availability. We posit that shifts in prey composition and/or distribution, combined with the onset of molt, resulted in this mortality event.