Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Determining individual risk of short-term mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and externally validate a prognostic nomogram for ACHBLF patients. METHODS: The nomogram was built to estimate the probability of 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, and 60-month survival based on an internal cohort of 246 patients with ACHBLF. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were determined by a concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, and time-dependent receiver operating characteristics (tdROC), comparing with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score. The results were validated using bootstrap resampling and an external cohort of 138 patients. Furthermore, we plotted decision curves to evaluate the clinical usefulness of nomogram. RESULTS: Independent factors derived from multivariable Cox analysis of training cohort to predict mortality were age, total bilirubin, serum sodium, and prothrombin activity, which were all assembled into nomogram. The calibration curves for probability of survival showed optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. The C-index of nomogram was higher than that of MELD score for predicting survival (30-day, 0.809 vs 0.717, P < 0.001; 60-day, 0.792 vs 0.685, P < 0.001; 90-day, 0.779 vs 0.678, P < 0.001; 6-month, 0.781 vs 0.677, P < 0.001). Additionally, tdROC and decision curves also showed that nomogram was superior to MELD score. The results were confirmed in validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The prognostic nomogram provided an individualized risk estimate of short-term survival in patients with ACHBLF, offering to clinicians to improve their abilities to assess patient prognosis.

High normal alanine aminotransferase is an indicator for better response to antiviral therapy in chronic hepatitis B.

Background: Evidence shows people living with CHB even with a normal ALT (40U/L as threshold) suffer histological disease and there is still little research to evaluate the potential benefit of antiviral benefits in them. Methods: We retrospectively examined 1352 patients who underwent liver biopsy from 2017 to 2021 and then obtained their 1-year follow-up data to analyze. Results: ALT levels were categorized into high and low, with thresholds set at >29 for males and >15 for females through Youden's Index. The high normal ALT group showed significant histological disease at baseline (56.43% vs 43.82%, p< 0.001), and better HBV DNA clearance from treatment using PSM (p=0.005). Similar results were obtained using 2016 AASLD high normals (male >30, female >19). Further multivariate logistic analysis showed that high normal ALT (both criterias) was an independent predictor of treatment (OR 1.993, 95% CI 1.115-3.560, p=0.020; OR 2.000, 95% CI 1.055-3.793, p=0.034) Both of the models had higher AUC compared with current scoring system, and there was no obvious difference between the two models (AUC:0.8840 vs 0.8835). Conclusion: Male >30 or female >19 and Male >29 or female>15 are suggested to be better thresholds for normal ALT. Having a high normal ALT in CHB provides a potential benefit in antiviral therapy.

Serum ammonia variation predicts mortality in patients with hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure.

Background: Hyperammonemia is critical to the development of hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and is associated with mortality in end-stage liver disease. This study investigated the clinical value of ammonia variation in hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) patients. Methods: A total of 276 patients with HBV-ACLF were retrospectively recruited. Patients' ammonia levels were serially documented. Baseline ammonia, Peak ammonia (highest level), and Trough ammonia (lowest level) were particularly corrected to the upper limit of normal (AMM-ULN). The primary endpoint was 28-day mortality. Results: The 28-day, 3-month, and 12-month mortality rates were 19.2, 25.7, and 28.2%, respectively. A total of 51 (18.4%) patients had overt HE (grade 2/3/4). Peak AMM-ULN was significantly higher in patients with overt HE and non-survivors compared with their counterparts (P < 0.001). Following adjustment for significant confounders, high Peak AMM-ULN was an independent predictor of overt HE (hazard ratio, 1.031, P < 0.001) and 28-day mortality (hazard ratio, 1.026, P < 0.001). The cut-off of Peak AMM-ULN was 1.8, determined by using the X-tile. Patients with Peak AMM-ULN appearing on days 1-3 after admission had a higher proportion of overt HE and mortality compared to other groups. Patients with decreased ammonia levels within 7 days had better clinical outcomes than those with increased ammonia. Conclusion: Serum Peak ammonia was independently associated with overt HE and mortality in HBV-ACLF patients. Serial serum ammonia may have prognostic value.

Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio predicts hospital-acquired bacterial infections in decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Bacterial infection is a frequent complication and severe burden in cirrhotic patients. We determined the utility of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict the hospital-acquired (HA) bacterial infections episode in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. METHODS: We retrospectively included 2066 consecutive decompensated cirrhotic patients from two separate tertiary hospitals, divided into training (n=1377) and validation (n=689) set. All data were collected on admission and all overt bacterial infections occurring after >48h of hospital stay were registered. RESULTS: The incidence of HA bacterial infections in training and validation cohort was 35.87% and 31.05% respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that total bilirubin (TBil), albumin, white blood cell count (WBC) and NLR were independent predictors of HA bacterial infections. We established a Model_NTWA using these four variables and a Model_TWA which did not include NLR. Areas under the curves (AUC) of Model_NTWA (0.859) and NLR (0.824) were higher than which of Model_TWA (0.713), WBC (0.675), TBil (0.593) and Albumin (0.583). Consistent with training cohort, validation cohort showed similar results. Patients with NLR of at least 4.33 had a significantly lower survival (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: NLR can be used as a novel noninvasive marker to predict the occurrence of HA bacterial infections in decompensated cirrhotic patients.

A MELD-based nomogram for predicting 3-month mortality of patients with acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure.

BACKGROUND: Acute-on-chronic hepatitis B liver failure (ACHBLF) is associated with poor short-term prognosis. The aim of the present study was to construct and validate a model for end-stage liver disease (MELD)-based nomogram for the 3-month mortality estimation for patients with ACHBLF. METHODS: A total of 551 patients with ACHBLF were prospectively enrolled from 2 independent medical centers and divided into 2 cohorts of training and validation, respectively. The 3-month mortality was recorded as the outcome. The MELD-based nomogram was constructed to predict the 3-month mortality for ACHBLF using the training group of 335 patients and validated using an independent cohort of 216 patients. The predictive capability of MELD-based nomogram was compared with the MELD score system by calibration analysis, receiver operating characteristics (ROC) and decision curve analysis in both training cohort and validation cohort. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis suggested that age, serum sodium, and MELD score were independent prognostic indicators associated with the 3-month mortality for ACHBLF, and therefore used for developing the nomogram. In terms of calibration, the predicted survival by the MELD-based nomogram was found to be extremely in line with the observed 3-month mortality both in training cohort and validation cohort. Additionally, both ROC and decision curve analyses showed that the MELD-based nomogram was better than MELD, MELD-Na, MELDNa, and iMELD for ACHBLF prognosis prediction. The results were confirmed in the external cohort of validation. CONCLUSIONS: The MELD-based nomogram provided a user-friendly, accurate and reproducible tool for predicting 3-month mortality of patients with ACHBLF.

C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio is a predictor of hepatitis B virus related decompensated cirrhosis: time-dependent receiver operating characteristics and decision curve analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains a major health problem and HBV-related-decompensated cirrhosis (HBV-DC) usually leads to a poor prognosis. Our aim was to determine the utility of inflammatory biomarkers in predicting mortality of HBV-DC. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 329 HBV-DC patients were enrolled. Survival estimates for the entire study population were generated using the Kaplan-Meier method. The prognostic values for model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, Child-Pugh score, and inflammatory biomarkers neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio, C-reactive protein-to-albumin ratio (CAR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) for HBV-DC were compared using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curves and time-dependent decision curves. RESULTS: The survival time was 23.1±15.8 months. Multivariate analysis identified age, CAR, LMR, and platelet count as prognostic independent risk factors. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that CAR of at least 1.0 (hazard ratio, 7.19; 95% confidence interval, 4.69-11.03), and LMR less than 1.9 (hazard ratio, 2.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.69-3.41) were independently associated with mortality of HBV-DC. The time-dependent receiver operating characteristic indicated that CAR showed the best performance in predicting mortality of HBV-DC compared with LMR, MELD score, and Child-Pugh score. The results were also confirmed by time-dependent decision curves. CONCLUSION: CAR and LMR were associated with the prognosis of HBV-DC. CAR was superior to LMR, MELD score, and Child-Pugh score in HBV-DC mortality prediction.

A microRNA expression profile for vascular invasion can predict overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The presence of vascular invasion (VI) in pathology specimens is a well-known unfavorable prognostic factor of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence and overall survival (OS). We investigated the vascular invasion related microRNA (miRNA) expression profiles and potential of prognostic value in HCC. METHODS: MiRNA and mRNA expression data for HCC were accessed from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). LASSO logistic regression models were used to develop a miRNA-based classifier for predicting VI. The predictive capability was accessed by area under receiver operating characteristics (AUC). Concordance index (C-index) and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (td-ROC) were used to determine its prognostic value. We validated the predictive and prognostic accuracy of this classifier in an external independent cohort of 127 patients. Functionally relevant targets of miRNAs were determined using miRNA target prediction, experimental validation and correlation of miRNA and mRNA expression data. RESULTS: A 16-miRNA-based classifier was developed which identified VI accurately, with AUC of 0.731 and 0.727 in TCGA set and validation cohort, respectively. C-index and td-ROC showed that the classifier was able to stratify patients into risk groups strongly associated with OS. When stratified by tumor characteristics, the classifier was still a clinically and statistically significant prognostic model. The predictive and prognostic accuracy of the classifier was confirmed in validation cohort. Vascular invasion related miRNA/target pairs were identified by integrating expression patterns of predicted targets, which were validated in cell lines. CONCLUSIONS: A multi-miRNA-based classifier developed based on the presence of VI, which could effectively predict OS in HCC.

Prognostic value of DNA repair based stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Aberrant activation of DNA repair is frequently associated with tumor progression and response to therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Bioinformatics analyses of HCC data in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) were performed to define DNA repair based molecular classification that could predict the prognosis of patients with HCC. Furthermore, we tested its predictive performance in 120 independent cases. Four molecular subgroups were identified on the basis of coordinate DNA repair cluster (CDRC) comprising 15 genes in TCGA dataset. Increasing expression of CDRC genes were significantly associated with TP53 mutation. High CDRC was significantly correlated with advanced tumor grades, advanced pathological stage and increased vascular invasion rate. Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that the molecular subgrouping was an independent prognostic parameter for both overall survival (p = 0.004, hazard ratio (HR): 2.989) and tumor-free survival (p = 0.049, HR: 3.366) in TCGA dataset. Similar results were also obtained by analyzing the independent cohort. These data suggest that distinct dysregulation of DNA repair constituents based molecular classes in HCC would be useful for predicting prognosis and designing clinical trials for targeted therapy.

Plumbagin Ameliorates CCl 4 -Induced Hepatic Fibrosis in Rats via the Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Signaling Pathway.

Epidermal growth factor (EGF) and its signaling molecules, EGFreceptor (EGFR) and signal transducer and activator of transcription factor 3 (STAT3), have been considered to play a role in liver fibrosis and cirrhosis. Plumbagin (PL) is an extracted component from the plant and has been used to treat different kinds of cancer. However, its role in regulation of EGFR and STAT3 during liver fibrosis has not been investigated. In this study, the effects of PL on the regulation of EGFR and STAT3 were investigated in carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) induced liver fibrosis and hepatic stellate cells (HSC-T6). PL significantly attenuated liver injury and fibrosis in CCl4 treated rats. At concentrations of 2 to 6 µM, PL did not induce significant cytotoxicity of HSC-T6 cells. Moreover, PL reduced phosphorylation of EGFR and STAT3 in both fibrotic liver and heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF) treated HSC-T6 cells. Furthermore, PL reduced the expression of α-SMA, EGFR, and STAT3 in both fibrotic liver and HB-EGF treated HSC-T6 cells. In conclusion, plumbagin could ameliorate the development of hepatic fibrosis through its downregulation of EGFR and STAT3 in the liver, especially in hepatic stellate cells.

Hepatocellular carcinoma associated microRNA expression signature: integrated bioinformatics analysis, experimental validation and clinical significance.

microRNA (miRNA) expression profiles varied greatly among current studies due to different technological platforms and small sample size. Systematic and integrative analysis of published datesets that compared the miRNA expression profiles between hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) tissue and paired adjacent noncancerous liver tissue was performed to determine candidate HCC associated miRNAs. Moreover, we further validated the confirmed miRNAs in a clinical setting using qRT-PCR and Tumor Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset. A miRNA integrated-signature of 5 upregulated and 8 downregulated miRNAs was identified from 26 published datesets in HCC using robust rank aggregation method. qRT-PCR demonstrated that miR-93-5p, miR-224-5p, miR-221-3p and miR-21-5p was increased, whereas the expression of miR-214-3p, miR-199a-3p, miR-195-5p, miR-150-5p and miR-145-5p was decreased in the HCC tissues, which was also validated on TCGA dataset. A miRNA based score using LASSO regression model provided a high accuracy for identifying HCC tissue (AUC = 0.982): HCC risk score = 0.180E_miR-221 + 0.0262E_miR-21 - 0.007E_miR-223 - 0.185E_miR-130a. E_miR-n = Log 2 (expression of microRNA n). Furthermore, expression of 5 miRNAs (miR-222, miR-221, miR-21 miR-214 and miR-130a) correlated with pathological tumor grade. Cox regression analysis showed that miR-21 was related with 3-year survival (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.509, 95%CI: 1.079-2.112, P = 0.016) and 5-year survival (HR: 1.416, 95%CI: 1.057-1.897, P = 0.020). However, none of the deregulated miRNAs was related with microscopic vascular invasion. This study provides a basis for further clinical application of miRNAs in HCC.

Mesenchymal stem cells ameliorate experimental autoimmune hepatitis by activation of the programmed death 1 pathway.

Previous studies have shown beneficial effects of mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) transplantation in many autoimmune diseases. However, few studies have focused on the effects of MSCs on autoimmune hepatitis. In our study, we investigated the therapeutic effects of BMSCs (bone mesenchymal stem cells) transplantation in mouse experimental autoimmune hepatitis (EAH) and explored the potential mechanism. BMSCs were injected intravenously into EAH mice. Then, serum levels of ALT and AST, and pathologic alteration of liver tissue were measured to evaluate the liver function and inflammation degree. The expressions of programmed death ligand 1, IL-17 and IL-23 were detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), and western blotting. Upon serum biochemical levels and pathological examination, the BMSCs-treated mice especially with multiple dosing administration showed significantly reduction of liver damage. Moreover, the expression of IL-17 was down-regulated by BMSCs intervention as compared to the model group, whereas the PD-L1 and IL-23 were up-regulated following the administration of MSCs. In conclusion, the results of this study suggest that BMSCs transplantation, especially on multiple dosing, may exert immunosuppression effect to ameliorate EAH through the inhibition of IL-17 and up-regulation of PD-L1.