Main drivers of outcome differ between short term and long term in severe alcoholic hepatitis: A prospective study.

Understanding the mechanisms of outcome according to the time frame can help optimize the therapeutic development in severe alcoholic hepatitis. We assessed short-term and long-term survival in severe alcoholic hepatitis based on baseline disease severity, extent of therapeutic improvement, long-term influence of alcohol relapse, and their interaction. Data and alcohol consumption were prospectively recorded in 398 patients treated with corticosteroids in the short term (from corticosteroid initiation to 6 months) and long term (from 6 months to maximum follow-up time). Cumulative incidence rate of first alcohol relapse was 25.2%, 33.7%, and 35.2% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Alcohol relapse (≥30 g/day) was not associated with mortality (P = 0.24) during the short-term period (1,606 patient-months at risk), but the Lille (P < 0.0001) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (P < 0.0001) scores were independent prognostic factors. In patients who were alive at 6 months (median follow-up, 42 months; interquartile range 11-88), corresponding to 10,413 patient-months at risk, alcohol consumption (≥30 g/day) was associated with mortality (hazard ratio, 3.9; P < 0.0001). Additional analysis with abstinent patients as a reference showed a dose effect of alcohol on the hazard ratio of death: 2.36 (P = 0.052) for 1-29 g/day, 3.2 (P = 0.003) for 30-49 g/day, 3.51 (P < 0.0001) for 50-99 g/day, and 5.61 (P < 0.0001) for ≥ 100 g/day. The baseline Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score was not predictive of long-term outcome, while Lille score (P = 0.02) and alcohol relapse (P < 0.0001) were independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSION: This study shows that new therapeutic development for severe alcoholic hepatitis must target liver injury in the short term and alcohol consumption in the long term; thus, health agencies can endorse future study designs adapted to the time frame of factors influencing mortality; with this in mind, drug-targeting mechanisms involved in liver injury should only be tested for the short-term period. (Hepatology 2017;66:1464-1473).

Combining Data From Liver Disease Scoring Systems Better Predicts Outcomes of Patients With Alcoholic Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Several models have been used to determine prognoses of patients with alcoholic hepatitis. These include static systems (the Maddrey discriminant function; age, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, creatinine [ABIC] score; and model for end-stage liver disease [MELD] score) and dynamic models (the Lille model). We aimed to combine features of all of these models to develop a better method to predict outcomes of patients with alcoholic hepatitis. METHODS: We collected data from several databases of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis treated with corticosteroids in France and the United Kingdom to create a model to predict patient survival (derivation cohort, n = 538 patients). We compared the performances of 3 joint-effect models (Maddrey+Lille, MELD+Lille, and ABIC+Lille) to determine which combination had the best prognostic value, based on known patient outcomes. The model was validated using data from trials of the effects of corticosteroids in patients in the United States, France, Korea, and Belgium (n = 604 patients). RESULTS: We created a joint-effect model to predict patient survival after 2 and 6 months; in the derivation and validation cohorts it predicted outcome significantly better than either static or dynamic models alone (P < .01 for all comparisons). The joint model accurately predicted patient survival regardless of patient risk level. The MELD+Lille combination was better than the Maddrey+Lille or ABIC+Lille combination in predicting patient survival, with Akaike information criterion values of 1305, 1313, and 1312, respectively. For example, based on the MELD+Lille combination model, the predicted 6-month mortality of complete responders with MELD scores of 15-45 (Lille score, 0.16) was 8.5% to 49.7%, compared with 16.4%-75.2% for nonresponders (Lille score, 0.45). According to the joint-effect model, for 2 patients with the same baseline MELD score of 21, the patient with a Lille score of 0.45 had a 1.9-fold higher risk of death than the patient with a Lille score of 0.16 (23.7% vs 12.5%). CONCLUSIONS: By combining results from static and dynamic scoring systems for liver disease, we can better predict outcomes of patients with alcoholic hepatitis, compared with either model alone. This may help patient management and design of clinical trials.

Prednisolone with vs without pentoxifylline and survival of patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis: a randomized clinical trial.

IMPORTANCE: Prednisolone or pentoxifylline is recommended for severe alcoholic hepatitis, a life-threatening disease. The benefit of their combination is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the addition of pentoxifylline to prednisolone is more effective than prednisolone alone. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multicenter, randomized, double-blind clinical trial conducted between December 2007 and March 2010 in 1 Belgian and 23 French hospitals of 270 patients aged 18 to 70 years who were heavy drinkers with severe biopsy-proven alcoholic hepatitis, as indicated by recent onset of jaundice in the prior 3 months and a Maddrey score of at least 32. Duration of follow-up was 6 months. The last included patient completed the study in October 2010. None of the patients were lost to follow-up for the main outcome. INTERVENTION: Patients were randomly assigned to receive either a combination of 40 mg of prednisolone once a day and 400 mg of pentoxifylline 3 times a day (n=133) for 28 days, or 40 mg of prednisolone and matching placebo (n=137) for 28 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Six-month survival, with secondary end points of development of hepatorenal syndrome and response to therapy based on the Lille model, which defines treatment nonresponders after 7 days of initiation of treatment. RESULTS: In intention-to-treat analysis, 6-month survival was not different in the pentoxifylline-prednisolone and placebo-prednisolone groups (69.9% [95% CI, 62.1%-77.7%] vs 69.2% [95% CI; 61.4%-76.9%], P = .91), corresponding to 40 vs 42 deaths, respectively. In multivariable analysis, only the Lille model and the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score were independently associated with 6-month survival. At 7 days, response to therapy assessed by the Lille model was not significantly different between the 2 groups (Lille model score, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.36-0.46] vs 0.40 [95% CI, 0.35-0.45], P = .80). The probability of being a responder was not different in both groups (62.6% [95% CI, 53.9%-71.3%] vs 61.9% [95% CI, 53.7%-70.3%], P = .91). The cumulative incidence of hepatorenal syndrome at 6 months was not significantly different in the pentoxifylline-prednisolone and the placebo-prednisolone groups (8.4% [95% CI, 4.8%-14.8%] vs 15.3% [95% CI, 10.3%-22.7%], P = .07). CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: In patients with alcoholic hepatitis, 4-week treatment with pentoxifylline and prednisolone, compared with prednisolone alone, did not result in improved 6-month survival. The study may have been underpowered to detect a significant difference in incidence of hepatorenal syndrome, which was less frequent in the group receiving pentoxifylline. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01214226.

Infection in patients with severe alcoholic hepatitis treated with steroids: early response to therapy is the key factor.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In severe (Maddrey score >or=32) alcoholic hepatitis (AH), infection is classically viewed as a contraindication for corticosteroids, although specific data are lacking. This study's aims were (1) to evaluate the incidence of infection in patients with severe AH before and after corticosteroid treatment; (2) to determine whether infection contraindicates corticosteroids; and (3) to focus on predictive factors of development of infection. METHODS: At admission, systematic screening of infection consisted of chest x-ray and blood, ascites, and urinary cultures. All patients were treated with prednisolone. Response to steroids was defined using the Lille model. RESULTS: Two hundred forty-six patients with severe AH were prospectively included. Infections at admission were as follows: 63 infections (25.6%) were diagnosed: 28 (44.4%) spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or bacteremia, 8 (12.7%) pulmonary infections, 20 (31.7%) urinary tract infections, and 7 (11.2%) other infections. Patients infected before using corticosteroids had 2-month survival similar to that of others: 70.9% +/- 6.1% vs 71.6% +/- 3.4%, respectively, P = .99. Development of infection after steroids: 57 patients (23.7%) developed infection: 16 (28.1%) spontaneous bacterial peritonitis or bacteremia, 23 (40.3%) pulmonary, 10 (17.5%) urinary tract, and 8 (14.1%) other infections. Infection occurred more frequently in nonresponders than in responders: 42.5% vs 11.1%, respectively, P < .000001. In multivariate analysis, only the Lille model (P = .0002) independently predicted infection upon steroids use. The Lille model (P = .000001) and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (P = .006) were independently associated with survival, whereas infection was not (P = .52). CONCLUSIONS: Severe AH is associated with high risk of infection. Infection screening is warranted but should not contraindicate steroids. In terms of mechanisms, nonresponse to steroids is the key factor in development of infection and prediction of survival.

Impact of pegylated interferon and ribavirin on morbidity and mortality in patients with chronic hepatitis C and normal aminotransferases in France.

UNLABELLED: Clinicians continue to raise questions concerning the necessity of treating chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients with normal alanine aminotransferase (N-ALT), in light of their slower progression to cirrhosis than patients with elevated alanine aminotraferase (E-ALT). This study was undertaken to predict the impact of pegylated interferon (IFN) and ribavirin on HCV-related morbidity and mortality in patients with N-ALT. A previous Markov model was adapted to separately simulate patients with N-ALT (30%) and those with E-ALT (70%). The model estimates fibrosis progression rates according to age, sex, and whether ALT levels are normal or elevated, assuming that patients with E-ALT have a 2.6 times higher progression than those with N-ALT. It takes into account improvement in HCV screening and treatment and competitive mortality. We assumed that N-ALT patients were treated 80% less frequently between 2002 and 2004 and 70% less frequently from 2005 on, as obtained in real life from three multicentric cohorts (Hepatys, Adequation, Persee). Antiviral treatment of HCV-infected populations might reduce 2008-2025 HCV-related morbidity and mortality by 34,200 cases of cirrhosis (36%, 33,000-35,000), 22,400 complications (28%, 21,000-23,000) and 17,500 deaths (25%, 17,000-18,000), including 3000 cases of cirrhosis (22%, 2000-5000), 1200 complications (15%, 1000-1700), and 1000 deaths (14%, 900-1300) in the N-ALT population, despite a probability of receiving treatment that is three to five times less in this population. If N-ALT patients are treated at the same proportions as those with E-ALT, morbidity and mortality could be further reduced by 1400 cases of cirrhosis (13%, 1200-2200), 600 complications (9%, 600-1000), and 500 deaths (9%, 500-800). CONCLUSION: Treatment of N-ALT patients would decrease HCV morbidity and mortality. These patients should be considered candidates for treatment just as others are.

Bone and joint complications in patients with hereditary hemochromatosis: a cross-sectional study of 93 patients.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to determine the frequency and characteristics of bone and joint complications, specifically bone fragility, joint replacement surgery, and arthropathy, in hereditary hemochromatosis (HH) and related factors. METHODS: This study was a cross-sectional observational study of 93 patients with HH. Radiographs of the hands, wrists, knees, and ankles were scored for joint space narrowing, erosions and cysts, osteophytes, and chondrocalcinosis. Prevalent (vertebral and non-vertebral) fragility fractures were recorded and bone mineral density (BMD) was systematically evaluated by dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. Bone fragility was defined as (i) a T-score ⩽ -2.5 at any site with or without a prevalent fragility fracture, or (ii) a T-score between -1.0 and -2.5 at any site and a prevalent fragility fracture. RESULTS: The mean age of the patients was 60.0 (11.2) years, and 58.0% of them were men. The frequency of radiographic MCP2-3 arthropathy was 37.6% (95% CI 0.28-0.48). Radiographic MCP2-3 arthropathy was independently associated with older age [OR 1.17 (1.09-1.26) per year, p < 0.0001], male sex [OR 3.89 (1.17-12.97), p = 0.027] and C282Y+/+ genotype [OR 4.78 (1.46-15.68), p = 0.010]. The frequency of joint replacement surgery was 12.9% (95% CI 0.07-0.21). The frequency of bone fragility was 20.4% (95% CI 0.13-0.30). Bone fragility was independently associated with hepatic cirrhosis [OR 8.20 (1.74-38.68), p = 0.008]. DISCUSSION: Radiographic MCP2-3 arthropathy was found to occur in 37.6% of patients with HH. The association observed between this form of arthropathy and C282Y homozygosity, male sex, and older age suggests that demographic characteristics and genetic background are likely to be major determinants of this joint disorder and play a more important role than severity of iron overload. Bone fragility was observed in a fifth of the patients with HH, independently of genetic background and severity of iron overload, and was strongly associated with hepatic cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Future investigations should focus on pathogenesis and early identification of patients at risk of developing bone and joint complications secondary to HH.