Predicting chronic kidney disease progression with artificial intelligence.

BACKGROUND: The use of tools that allow estimation of the probability of progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to advanced stages has not yet achieved significant practical importance in clinical setting. This study aimed to develop and validate a machine learning-based model for predicting the need for renal replacement therapy (RRT) and disease progression for patients with stage 3-5 CKD. METHODS: This was a retrospective, closed cohort, observational study. Patients with CKD affiliated with a private insurer with five-year follow-up data were selected. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables were included, and the models were developed based on machine learning methods. The outcomes were CKD progression, a significant decrease in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and the need for RRT. RESULTS: Three prediction models were developed-Model 1 (risk at 4.5 years, n = 1446) with a F1 of 0.82, 0.53, and 0.55 for RRT, stage progression, and reduction in the eGFR, respectively,- Model 2 (time- to-event, n = 2143) with a C-index of 0.89, 0.67, and 0.67 for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively, and Model 3 (reduced Model 2) with C-index = 0.68, 0.68 and 0.88, for RRT, stage progression, reduction in the eGFR, respectively. CONCLUSION: The time-to-event model performed well in predicting the three outcomes of CKD progression at five years. This model can be useful for predicting the onset and time of occurrence of the outcomes of interest in the population with established CKD.

Uric acid and risk of pre-eclampsia: results from a large case-control study and meta-analysis of prospective studies.

To quantify the association between maternal uric acid levels and pre-eclampsia risk in a large collection of primigravid women. A case-control study (1365 cases of pre-eclampsia and 1886 normotensive controls) was conducted. Pre-eclampsia was defined as blood pressure ≥ 140/90 mmHg and proteinuria ≥ 300 mg/24 h. Sub-outcome analysis included early, intermediate, and late pre-eclampsia. Multivariable analysis for pre-eclampsia and its sub-outcomes was conducted using binary and multinomial logistic regression, respectively. Additionally, a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies measuring uric acid levels < 20 weeks of gestation was performed to rule out reverse causation. There was a positive linear association between increasing uric acid levels and presence of pre-eclampsia. Adjusted odds ratio of pre-eclampsia was 1.21 (95%CI 1.11-1.33) for every one standard deviation increase in uric acid levels. No differences in the magnitude of association were observed between early and late pre-eclampsia. Three studies with uric acid measured < 20 weeks' gestation were identified, with a pooled OR for pre-eclampsia of 1.46 (95%CI 1.22-1.75) for a top vs. bottom quartile comparison. Maternal uric acid levels are associated with risk of pre-eclampsia. Mendelian randomisation studies would be helpful to further explore the causal role of uric acid in pre-eclampsia.

Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection among Occupational Groups from the Bucaramanga Metropolitan Area, Colombia.

The negative effects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have impacted the world economy due to the absence from work because of SARS-CoV-2 infection in workers, among other reasons. However, some economic areas are essential to society and people must continue working outside the home to support economic reactivation; their serological profile could be different from that of the global population. Cross-sectional study: Workers from health, construction, public transportation, public force, bike delivery messengers, independent or informal commerce areas, and residents of Bucaramanga or its metropolitan area were invited to participate. All participants self-completed a virtual survey and a blood test was taken to assess IgG and IgM with the ARC COV2 test. Seroprevalence was estimated considering a complex survey design, correcting for a finite population effect and adjusting for test performance. A total of 7045 workers were enrolled; 59.9% were women and most were residents of Bucaramanga and working in health occupations. The global adjusted seroprevalence was 19.5% (CI: 95% 18.6-20.4), being higher for Girón (27.9%; 95% CI: 24.5-31.30). Workers with multiple contact with people during working hours or using public transportation to go to work had a higher frequency of seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2. The seroprevalence among workers living in these four municipalities from the Colombian northeast area is still low.

Pentraxin-3 is a candidate biomarker on the spectrum of severity from pre-eclampsia to HELLP syndrome: GenPE study.

Pentraxin-3 has been reported as a promising biomarker of pre-eclampsia and its severity; however, available studies have small sample sizes, and analyses are not always adjusted for confounders. The aim of this study is to establish the strength of the association between maternal Pentraxin-3 level and pre-eclampsia or HELLP syndrome. It was a case-control study. Women with pre-eclampsia or HELLP syndrome were defined as cases, and women with healthy pregnancies at term (>37 weeks) were classified as controls. Plasma concentrations of Pentraxin-3 were determined at the time of delivery by quantitative enzyme immunoassay. Associations between Pentraxin-3 and pre-eclampsia and HELLP syndrome were assessed by multinomial logistic regression. Subsidiary analysis for the time of disease onset was also carried out. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals are reported. A total of 1024 pregnant women were included (461 controls, 368 pre-eclampsia, 195 HELLP). A positive log-linear relationship was found between the top pentraxin-3 quintile and HELLP syndrome. After adjustment for confounders (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic position, date and place of recruitment, family history of pre-eclampsia, smoking, body mass index at beginning of pregnancy, gestational age and multiple pregnancy), the strength of the association was higher for HELLP syndrome [OR 1.13 (95% CI 1.08; 1.18)] than for pre-eclampsia [OR 1.03 (95% CI 1.03; 1.10)]. No difference according to time of onset or pentraxin-3 level was found. In summary, pentraxin-3 level was associated with pre-eclampsia, but it was more strongly associated with HELLP syndrome. Longitudinal studies with a lower probability of residual confounding are necessary to improve our knowledge about the role of pentraxin-3 in pre-eclampsia.

The cost of hospital care for HIV patients in Colombia: an insurer's perspective.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost derived from the hospitalization of people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Colombia between 2011 and 2015. This is an analysis of the direct cost of PLHIV hospitalization from the perspective of an insurer of the Colombian General Social Security System. The costs were calculated in Colombian pesos and corrected for inflation on the basis of the 2017 Consumer Price Index of the Bank of the Republic of Colombia. It was converted to US dollars at the Market Representative Exchange Rate of the same year. We analyzed 1129 hospitalizations in 612 PLHIV, of which 12% started with a diagnosis of HIV during the same hospitalization, with the majority in the AIDS stage (63%). The median overall cost of hospitalizations was US$1509 (25th and 75th percentiles: US$711-US$3254), being even higher in patients with AIDS and as the CD4 T lymphocyte count decreased. The cost derived from the medical care of PLHIV increases as the clinical control of the disease worsens, and it is a key indicator of the impact of the strategies implemented for the timely identification of the infection and subsequent management of the disease.