Association of Mycobacterium avium paratuberculosis serostatus with age at first calving, calving interval, and milk production in dairy cows.

Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) is the causative agent of bovine paratuberculosis, also known as Johne's disease. This infection is responsible for negative effects, ranging from reduction of milk production to reproductive compromise and increased susceptibility to other diseases such as mastitis. Contradictory information on the association between this infection and reproductive performance has been reported in dairy cows. The aim of this work was to investigate associations between individual cow MAP seropositivity and lifetime reproduction and production performance. The MAP serum ELISA (IDEXX MAP Ac) results from all the 13,071 adult cows present on 191 farms and corresponding birth- and calving-date records obtained from the National Association for Genetic Improvement of Dairy Cattle were used. Cows and farms were classified as positive or negative, based on ELISA results. Outcomes assessed were age at first calving (AFC), intercalving intervals (ICI) from first to fourth interval, and average milk production per day of productive cycle (Milk-305/ICI, a ratio between 305-d corrected milk production and the number of days of the respective calving interval). Multilevel mixed models were used to investigate the association of cow MAP status with AFC, ICI, and Milk-305/ICI. Three levels were considered in the models: "measurement occasion," the first level, was nested within cows and cows were nested within farms. The "measurement occasion" is the time point to which all the observed measures (between 2 successive parturitions, such as milk production and somatic cell count) were referred. Our results indicate that MAP-positive cows have a significantly lower 14-d mean AFC than MAP-negative cows. The overall average ICI in our study was 432.5 d (standard deviation: 94.6). The average ICI, from first to fourth, was not significantly affected by MAP seropositivity. No significant effect of MAP positivity was found on the overall ICI. In relation to Milk-305/ICI, MAP-positive cows did not produce significantly less milk than negative cows across their productive lifetime. We observed higher but nonsignificant Milk-305/ICI (kg/d) in MAP-positive cows. In our study, the proportion of MAP-positive cows within lactations remained similar across all lactations, suggesting that seropositivity did not increased drop-off rate.

Long live the liver: immunohistochemical and stereological study of hepatocytes, liver sinusoidal endothelial cells, Kupffer cells and hepatic stellate cells of male and female rats throughout ageing.

Male/female differences in enzyme activity and gene expression in the liver are known to be attenuated with ageing. Nevertheless, the effect of ageing on liver structure and quantitative cell morphology remains unknown. Male and female Wistar rats aged 2, 6, 12 and 18 months were examined by means of stereological techniques and immunohistochemical tagging of hepatocytes (HEP), liver sinusoidal endothelial cells (LSEC), Kupffer cells (KC) and hepatic stellate cells (HSC) in order to assess the total number and number per gram of these cells throughout life. The mean cell volume of HEP and HSC, the lobular position and the collagen content of the liver were also evaluated with stereological techniques. The number per gram of HSC was similar for both genders and was maintained throughout ageing. The mean volume of HSC was also conserved but differences in the cell body and lobular location were observed. Statistically significant gender differences in HEP were noted in young rats (females had smaller and more binucleated HEP) but were attenuated with ageing. The same occurred for KC and LSEC, since the higher number per gram in young females disappeared in older animals. Liver collagen increased with ageing but only in males. Thus, the numbers of these four cell types are related throughout ageing, with well-defined cell ratios. The shape and lobular position of HSC change with ageing in both males and females. Gender dimorphism in HEP, KC and LSEC of young rat liver disappears with ageing.

Stereological assessment of sexual dimorphism in the rat liver reveals differences in hepatocytes and Kupffer cells but not hepatic stellate cells.

There is long-standing evidence that male and female rat livers differ in enzyme activity. More recently, differences in gene expression profiling have also been found to exist; however, it is still unclear whether there is morphological expression of male/female differences in the normal liver. Such differences could help to explain features seen at the pathological level, such as the greater regenerative potential generally attributed to the female liver. In this paper, hepatocytes (HEP), Kupffer cells (KC) and hepatic stellate cells (HSC) of male and female rats were examined to investigate hypothesised differences in number, volume and spatial co-localisation of these cell types. Immunohistochemistry and design-based stereology were used to estimate total numbers, numbers per gram and mean cell volumes. The position of HSC within lobules (periportal vs. centrilobular) and their spatial proximity to KC was also assessed. In addition, flow cytometry was used to investigate the liver ploidy. In the case of HEP and KC, differences in the measured cell parameters were observed between male and female specimens; however, no such differences were detected for HSC. Female samples contained a higher number of HEP per gram, with more binucleate cells. The HEP nuclei were smaller in females, which was coincident with more abundant diploid particles in these animals. The female liver also had a greater number of KC per gram, with a lower percentage of KC in the vicinity of HSC compared with males. In this study, we document hitherto unknown morphological sexual dimorphism in the rat liver, namely in HEP and KC. These differences may account for the higher regenerative potential of the female liver and lend weight to the argument for considering the rat liver as a sexually dimorphic organ.

Transmission parameters estimated for Salmonella typhimurium in swine using susceptible-infectious-resistant models and a Bayesian approach.

BACKGROUND: Transmission models can aid understanding of disease dynamics and are useful in testing the efficiency of control measures. The aim of this study was to formulate an appropriate stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Resistant/Carrier (SIR) model for Salmonella Typhimurium in pigs and thus estimate the transmission parameters between states. RESULTS: The transmission parameters were estimated using data from a longitudinal study of three Danish farrow-to-finish pig herds known to be infected. A Bayesian model framework was proposed, which comprised Binomial components for the transition from susceptible to infectious and from infectious to carrier; and a Poisson component for carrier to infectious. Cohort random effects were incorporated into these models to allow for unobserved cohort-specific variables as well as unobserved sources of transmission, thus enabling a more realistic estimation of the transmission parameters. In the case of the transition from susceptible to infectious, the cohort random effects were also time varying. The number of infectious pigs not detected by the parallel testing was treated as unknown, and the probability of non-detection was estimated using information about the sensitivity and specificity of the bacteriological and serological tests. The estimate of the transmission rate from susceptible to infectious was 0.33 [0.06, 1.52], from infectious to carrier was 0.18 [0.14, 0.23] and from carrier to infectious was 0.01 [0.0001, 0.04]. The estimate for the basic reproduction ration (R0) was 1.91 [0.78, 5.24]. The probability of non-detection was estimated to be 0.18 [0.12, 0.25]. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed framework for stochastic SIR models was successfully implemented to estimate transmission rate parameters for Salmonella Typhimurium in swine field data. R0 was 1.91, implying that there was dissemination of the infection within pigs of the same cohort. There was significant temporal-cohort variability, especially at the susceptible to infectious stage. The model adequately fitted the data, allowing for both observed and unobserved sources of uncertainty (cohort effects, diagnostic test sensitivity), so leading to more reliable estimates of transmission parameters.

How commercial and non-commercial swine producers move pigs in Scotland: a detailed descriptive analysis.

BACKGROUND: The impact of non-commercial producers on disease spread via livestock movement is related to their level of interaction with other commercial actors within the industry. Although understanding these relationships is crucial in order to identify likely routes of disease incursion and transmission prior to disease detection, there has been little research in this area due to the difficulties of capturing movements of small producers with sufficient resolution. Here, we used the Scottish Livestock Electronic Identification and Traceability (ScotEID) database to describe the movement patterns of different pig production systems which may affect the risk of disease spread within the swine industry. In particular, we focused on the role of small pig producers. RESULTS: Between January 2012 and May 2013, 23,169 batches of pigs were recorded moving animals between 2382 known unique premises. Although the majority of movements (61%) were to a slaughterhouse, the non-commercial and the commercial sectors of the Scottish swine industry coexist, with on- and off-movement of animals occurring relatively frequently. For instance, 13% and 4% of non-slaughter movements from professional producers were sent to a non-assured commercial producer or to a small producer, respectively; whereas 43% and 22% of movements from non-assured commercial farms were sent to a professional or a small producer, respectively. We further identified differences between producer types in several animal movement characteristics which are known to increase the risk of disease spread. Particularly, the distance travelled and the use of haulage were found to be significantly different between producers. CONCLUSIONS: These results showed that commercial producers are not isolated from the non-commercial sector of the Scottish swine industry and may frequently interact, either directly or indirectly. The observed patterns in the frequency of movements, the type of producers involved, the distance travelled and the use of haulage companies provide insights into the structure of the Scottish swine industry, but also highlight different features that may increase the risk of infectious diseases spread in both Scotland and the UK. Such knowledge is critical for developing more robust biosecurity and surveillance plans and better preparing Scotland against incursions of emerging swine diseases.

Bovine mortality: the utility of two data sources for the provision of population-level surveillance intelligence.

Introduction: The use of existing data to provide surveillance intelligence is widely advocated but often presents considerable challenges. Two data sources could be used as proxies for the mortality experienced by the Scottish cattle population: deaths recorded in the mandatory register [Cattle Tracing System (CTS)] and fallen stock collections by the National Fallen Stock Company (NSFCo) with a nationwide voluntary membership. Methods: Data for the period 2011-2016 were described and compared to establish their strengths and limitations. Similarities and differences in their temporal, seasonal and spatial patterns were examined overall, at postcode area level and for different age groups. Temporal aberration detection algorithms (TADA) were fitted. Results: Broadly, similar patterns were observed in the two datasets; however, there were some notable differences. The observed seasonal, annual and spatial patterns match expectations, given knowledge of Scottish cattle production systems. The registry data provide more comprehensive coverage of all areas of Scotland, while collections data provide a more comprehensive measure of the mortality experienced in 0-1-month-old calves. Discussion: Consequently, estimates of early calf mortality and their impact on the livestock sector made using CTS, or successor registers, will be under-estimates. This may apply to other registry-based systems. Fitted TADA detected points of deviations from expected norms some of which coincided in the two datasets; one with a known external event that caused increased mortality. We have demonstrated that both data sources do have the potential to be utilized to provide measures of mortality in the Scottish cattle population that could inform surveillance activities. While neither is perfect, they are complementary. Each has strengths and weaknesses, so ideally, a system where they are analyzed and interpreted in parallel would optimize the information obtained for surveillance purposes for epidemiologists, risk managers, animal health policy-makers and the wider livestock industry sector. This study provides a foundation on which to build an operational system. Further development will require improvements in the timeliness of data availability and further investment of resources.

An economic assessment of alternative antimicrobial use scenarios on pig farms.

This paper explores the theoretical economic outcome of management changes that result in different levels of antimicrobial use (AMU) in two types of UK pig farm. A static farm economic pig production model (FEPM) was used on a representative 'Top-third' most profitable farm and a representative 'Mid-range' profitable farm. Three AMU theoretical management scenarios were investigated; (a) management changes leading to a reduction of AMU by 35% (AMU35); (b) more extensive management changes leading to a reduction of AMU by 95% (AMU95); and (c) implementing depopulation of the herd (AMU Depop). A sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the effect of increases or decreases in pig revenue and feed price on farm gross margin under these scenarios. Over a single year, the AMU35 scenario was estimated to have a small positive impact (+3%) on both farm types. The other two AMU reduction scenarios had higher AMU reduction on farms but required higher variable cost and hence they resulted in lower farm profitability. There was a substantial reduction (up to -50%) in farm gross margin under these two AMU reduction scenarios in the modeled short-term time-period. The impact of the alternative AMU scenarios was slightly higher on a farm representing the 'Top-third' farm type, reducing farm gross margin further by 7% compared to the 'Mid-range' farm. Nevertheless, both farm types stay profitable under all three AMU scenarios. The results showed that in the modeled short-term implementing management changes that result in a reduction of on-farm AMU by 35% had a good economic outcome. In practice, the other two scenarios would be considered as longer-term strategies. Although both require higher initial costs to implement, the improved biosecurity and hygiene will benefit from lower disease occurrence for a longer term. Farm gross margins were, however, found to be highly sensitive to changes on market prices especially increasing feed prices. An increase of more than 15% in feed price moved a profitable farm into a loss-making farm. It will be economically challenging for uptakes of these, or similar, AMU reduction scenarios on farms if the market prices become un-favorable to pig farmers.

Evaluation of a Manual Cytocentrifuge versus the Standard Automated Cytocentrifuge in the Analysis of Canine Cerebrospinal Fluid: A Case Series of 55 Dogs.

Cytospins are important for evaluating fluids with very low cellularity such as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The aim of this study was to compare the CSF cytospin preparations obtained from automated and manual cytocentrifugation methods. A prospective case series was performed to analyze canine CSF samples using both centrifugation methods. The cytospins were processed within 30-60 min and prepared simultaneously in a conventional automated cytocentrifuge and in an in-house manual cytocentrifuge, using a fixed volume of CSF fluid. The cellularity, differential cell count and the proportion of cell artifacts (pseudopods and vacuolization) were blindly assessed in the cytospin preparations obtained using the two methods. The agreement and correlation between both methods were analyzed. There were 55 dogs enrolled (48 prospectively and 7 retrospectively) in the study. 38 dogs had normal total nucleated cell counts, while 17 had pleocytosis. Automated and manual cytocentrifugation had similar cell yields, and no significant differences in differential cell counts or the presence of artifacts existed between both methods. In cases with pleocytosis, the cytologic diagnosis obtained using each method was similar. Manual cytocentrifugation of CSF is a reliable and economic method designed for routine clinical practice. Its use reduces the specimen deterioration related to processing and analysis delays when samples are transported to external laboratories for evaluation.

Detection of Lymphoid Markers (CD3 and PAX5) for Immunophenotyping in Dogs and Cats: Comparison of Stained Cytology Slides and Matched Cell Blocks.

Immunolabeling on Romanowsky-stained cytology (RSC) slides can be used, although there is limited evidence of its suitability for phenotyping canine and feline lymphomas. A comparison with matched cell blocks (CB) is missing. Immunolabeling on RSC and CB was compared for lymphoid markers (CD3 and PAX5) in 53 lymphomas and 4 chylous effusions from dogs and cats. The influence of pre-analytical variables (species, time of archive, type of specimens and coverslipping) and the interobserver agreement among the 2 observers was assessed. Fewer CD3+ lymphocytes were identified in RSC, while the PAX5 positivity by RSC and CB had a substantial agreement. Immunodetection of CD3 and the diagnosis of a T-cell population on RSC was more difficult. Lower intensity and higher background were noted in RSC. Immunophenotyping was inconclusive in 54% RSC and 19% CB. The interobserver reproducibility of immunophenotyping on CB was substantial, being higher than in RSC. The immunolabeling performance on the RSC of effusion and feline samples was unsatisfactory. The detection of lymphoid markers, especially membranous antigens in retrospective RSC, is affected by the pre-analytical variables: species, time of the archive, and type of specimens. CB are a more consistent type of sample for immunophenotyping purposes.

Assessing risk profiles for Salmonella serotypes in breeding pig operations in Portugal using a Bayesian hierarchical model.

BACKGROUND: The EU Regulation No 2160/2003 imposes a reduction in the prevalence of Salmonella in pigs. The efficiency of control programmes for Salmonella in pigs, reported among the EU Member States, varies and definitive eradication seems very difficult. Control measures currently recommended for Salmonella are not serotype-specific. Is it possible that the risk factors for different Salmonella serotypes are different? The aim of this study was to investigate potential risk factors for two groups of Salmonella sp serotypes using pen faecal samples from breeding pig holdings representative of the Portuguese pig sector. METHODS: The data used come from the Baseline Survey for the Prevalence of Salmonella in breeding pigs in Portugal. A total of 1670 pen faecal samples from 167 herds were tested, and 170 samples were positive for Salmonella. The presence of Salmonella in each sample (outcome variable) was classified in three categories: i) no Salmonella, ii) Salmonella Typhimurium or S. Typhimurium-like strains with the antigenic formula: 1,4,5,12:i:-, , and iii) other serotypes. Along with the sample collection, a questionnaire concerning herd management and potential risk factors was utilised. The data have a "natural" hierarchical structure so a categorical multilevel analysis of the dataset was carried out using a Bayesian hierarchical model. The model was estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, implemented in the software WinBUGS. RESULTS: The significant associations found (when compared to category "no Salmonella"), for category "serotype Typhimurium or S. Typhimurium-like strains with the antigenic formula: 1,4,5,12:i:-" were: age of breeding sows, size of the herd, number of pigs/pen and source of semen. For the category "other serotypes" the significant associations found were: control of rodents, region of the country, source of semen, breeding sector room and source of feed. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors significantly associated with Salmonella shedding from the category "serotype Typhimurium or serotype 1,4,5,12:i:-" were more related to animal factors, whereas those associated with "other serotypes" were more related to environmental factors. Our findings suggest that different control measures could be used to control different Salmonella serotypes in breeding pigs.

Canine mast cell tumors: utility of stereologic tools in cytology.

Quantitative morphologic parameters assessed in cytologic samples of canine cutaneous mast cell tumors (ccMCTs) may assist with surgical planning and prognostication. Robust cutoffs can be defined, with high reproducibility, for parameters such as the nuclear area (NA). The NA may be determined by morphometry (image analysis, NAI) or by stereology, such as the 2D-nucleator method (NAN); stereologic techniques have not been applied to cytologic specimens of ccMCT, to our knowledge. We retrospectively selected routine cytology smears from 51 ccMCT cases and screened them to determine the percentage of neoplastic mast cells with indistinct nuclear borders; this was repeated after the slides were restained with H&E. The NAI and the NAN were estimated in 100 mast cells per animal in H&E-stained slides. All nuclei were visible in H&E smears, and unbiased quantification was feasible. The NAN was similar to NAI, but less time-consuming. Both the NAN and NAI determined by cytology differed in histologic low- and high-grade ccMCTs, and in histologic grade I plus II versus grade III ccMCTs. Stereologic parameters such as the NAN could be considered as complementary techniques for the cytologic evaluation of ccMCTs.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus seroprevalence in Scottish finishing pigs between 2006 and 2018.

BACKGROUND: Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a major endemic pig disease worldwide and is associated with considerable economic costs. METHODS: In Scotland, three abattoir surveys were conducted in 2006 (158 farms), 2012-2013 (94 farms) and 2017-2018 (97 farms) to estimate seroprevalence to PRRS virus (PRRSV) in commercial finishing pigs. These surveys covered around 79%, 59% and 66% of the Quality Meat Scotland assured farms slaughtering pigs in Scotland in 2006, 2012-13 and, 2017-18 respectively. In the 2006 survey, six pigs per farm were sampled and tested using the CIVTEST SUIS PRRS E/S test. In the 2012-2013 and 2017-2018 surveys, 10 pigs per farm were sampled and tested using the IDEXX PRRS X3 Ab test. A farm was considered positive if it had one or more seropositive samples. RESULTS: The prevalence of positive farms was 45.6% (95% CI: 38.0-53.4), 47.8% (95% CI: 38.1-57.9) and 45.4% (95% CI: 35.8-55.3) in the 2006, 2012-2013 and 2017-2018 surveys, respectively, and 70%-75.5% farms did not change their status between sampling periods. CONCLUSION: The prevalence of PRRSV exposure in Scottish pig herds was high and changed little from 2006 to 2018. These surveys have informed planning for a prospective PRRS control programme in Scotland.

Estimating antimicrobial usage based on sales to beef and dairy farms from UK veterinary practices.

BACKGROUND: Accurate estimation of antimicrobial use (AMU) is important in assessing reduction of agricultural AMU. This cross-sectional study aimed to evaluate several approaches for estimating AMU at the herd level and to report on AMU for beef and dairy farms in Scotland. METHODS: Pharmaceutical sales data for 75 cattle herds (2011-2015) were screened for antimicrobial products and aggregated by herd and year. Several denominators for usage estimates were calculated and compared for their suitability at the herd level. RESULTS: The median total mass of active ingredient sold per kg of bovine livestock was 9.5 mg/kg for beef herds and 14.3 mg/kg for dairy herds. The 'highest priority critically important' antimicrobials (HPCIA) were by total mass of active ingredient, 10.6% of all sales; by total defined daily dose veterinary (DDDVet), 29.8% and by DCDvet, 20.0%. These are the first estimates of AMU for beef cattle in the UK, and for cattle of any kind in Scotland. Estimates of herd-level usage based on population correction unit (PCU) were sensitive to low values for PCU for specific herd-years due to their demographic composition. CONCLUSION: Pharmaceutical sales data can provide useful estimates of AMU, but estimating usage per PCU is not appropriate for comparing groups of cattle with different demographic compositions or for setting herd-level targets. Total mass of active ingredient per kilogram of livestock is more stable and hence suitable than PCU-based methods for assessing AMU at the herd level.

Exploring the attitudes of backyard poultry keepers to health and biosecurity.

Backyard poultry producers have been associated with outbreaks of exotic (e.g. avian influenza) and endemic (e.g. Salmonella) disease all over the world. Currently in the UK the registration of small flocks (less than 50 birds) with local authorities is voluntary therefore there is not an accurate record of how many keepers and birds there are or where they are located. This lack of information (e.g. how many birds they keep, what type of birds, biosecurity measures they implement, etc.) may compromise contingency planning in an outbreak. A questionnaire was designed and implemented to gather information that will allow some of the knowledge gaps to be filled. The questionnaire comprised a total of 63 questions divided into seven sections (characterisation of the keeper, location of the enterprise and interest in poultry, poultry husbandry, transport of poultry, details about the poultry enterprise, marketing of poultry products, and poultry health/biosecurity). The questionnaire was implemented through an online survey, which was promoted through web links in smallholders' websites, Facebook pages, the SRUC network, a course about poultry welfare, and leaflets at smallholders' festivals. The survey was open from 24th October 2016 to 10th April 2017 and 176 questionnaires were completed by target respondents. Overall, our results suggest that the level of disease identified by backyard poultry keepers is low but the majority of the backyard poultry keepers also keep other livestock species, with an associated increased risk for disease transmission between species. Almost all respondents reported implementing at least one biosecurity measure, although in the majority of cases the measures taken were not comprehensive. A lack of knowledge about the legislation concerning poultry-keeping activities was evidenced by the answers given to some questions, such as the feeding of kitchen scraps and how to dispose of dead stocks. This investigation fills gaps in knowledge which will allow industry stakeholders and policy makers to adapt their current disease programmes and contingency plans to the reality of the health and biosecurity status of backyard poultry. It also highlights that government could play a more active role in engaging with backyard poultry keepers and in finding ways to disseminate reliable information generally and about disease outbreaks specifically, to these keepers.

Multilayer network analysis unravels haulage vehicles as a hidden threat to the British swine industry.

When assessing the role of live animal trade networks in the spread of infectious diseases in livestock, attention has focused mainly on direct movements of animals between premises, whereas the role of haulage vehicles used during transport, an indirect route for disease transmission, has largely been ignored. Here, we have assessed the impact of sharing haulage vehicles from livestock transport service providers on the connectivity between farms as well as on the spread of swine infectious diseases in Great Britain (GB). Using all pig movement records between April 2012 and March 2014 in GB, we built a series of directed and weighted static multiplex networks consisting of two layers of identical nodes, where nodes (farms) are linked either by (a) the direct movement of pigs and (b) the shared use of haulage vehicles. The haulage contact definition integrates the date of the move and the duration Δ s that lorries are left contaminated by pathogens, hence accounting for the temporal aspect of contact events. For increasing Δ s , descriptive network analyses were performed to assess the role of haulage on network connectivity. We then explored how viruses may spread throughout the GB pig sector by computing the reproduction number R . Our results showed that sharing haulage vehicles increases the number of contacts between farms by >50% and represents an important driver of disease transmission. In particular, sharing haulage vehicles, even if Δ s  < 1 day, will limit the benefit of the standstill regulation, increase the number of premises that could be infected in an outbreak, and more easily raise R above 1. This work confirms that sharing haulage vehicles has significant potential for spreading infectious diseases within the pig sector. The cleansing and disinfection process of haulage vehicles is therefore a critical control point for disease transmission risk mitigation.

The advantages of using cytospins of uterine lavage fluid for the diagnosis of equine endometritis.

Uterine lavage (UL) is a routine diagnostic procedure for endometritis. In UL the fluid is centrifuged and the sediment smeared. Samples prepared in cytocentrifuges, the so-called "cytospins", are useful for evaluating cells in fluids, but never been used in UL. The aim of this study was to assess the usefulness of cytospins after UL, comparing automatic versus manual cytocentrifuges, and to determine their value for the diagnosis of endometritis. The study was divided in two parts. Firstly, UL was performed in 16 mares and a small part of the retrieved fluid was cytocentrifuged in an automatic (PreCyto) and manual (PreMan) cytocentrifuge, whereas the remaining fluid was centrifuged. After that, the sediment was divided into three quotas. One quota was smeared, one was processed in an automatic cytocentrifuge (PostCyto) and the last quota was cytospinned in a manual apparatus (PostMan). Cytospins obtained were scored for cellularity, cell preservation, presence of inflammatory cells, bacteria and contaminants; results were compared with sediment smears. Secondly in this study, the best cytospin method was compared with sediment smears in another group of 13 mares, which had endometrial biopsy after UL. Agreement between sediment smears and cytospins was poor to moderate. Compared to sediment smears, cytospins were more cellular, with better morphological details. Urine crystals and fecal contamination were detected more often in cytospins (especially PostCyto and PostMan). No differences in the percentage of inflammatory or epithelial cells existed. PostMan was considered the best method to evaluate UL fluid and it had higher sensitivity (80%), compared with sediment smears (60%), for diagnosing endometritis. Cytocentrifugation offers significant advantages over sediment smears and the manual cytocentrifuge is well suited for horse stable conditions.

Desirable BUGS in models of infectious diseases.

Bayesian inference using Gibbs sampling (BUGS) is a set of statistical software that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to estimate almost any specified model. Originally developed in the late 1980s, the software is an excellent introduction to applied Bayesian statistics without the need to write a MCMC sampler. The software is typically used for regression-based analyses, but any model that can be specified using graphical nodes are possible. Advanced topics such as missing data, spatial analysis, model comparison and dynamic infectious disease models can be tackled. Three examples are provided; a linear regression model to illustrate parameter estimation, the steps to ensure that the estimates have converged and a comparison of run-times across different computing platforms. The second example describes a model that estimates the probability of being vaccinated from cross-sectional and surveillance data, and illustrates the specification of different models, model comparison and data augmentation. The third example illustrates estimation of parameters within a dynamic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. These examples show that BUGS can be used to estimate parameters from models relevant for infectious diseases, and provide an overview of the relative merits of the approach taken.

Improving the Utility of Voluntary Ovine Fallen Stock Collection and Laboratory Diagnostic Submission Data for Animal Health Surveillance Purposes: A Development Cycle.

There are calls from policy-makers and industry to use existing data sources to contribute to livestock surveillance systems, especially for syndromic surveillance. However, the practical implications of attempting to use such data sources are challenging; development often requires incremental steps in an iterative cycle. In this study the utility of business operational data from a voluntary fallen stock collection service was investigated, to determine if they could be used as a proxy for the mortality experienced by the British sheep population. Retrospectively, Scottish ovine fallen stock collection data (2011-2014) were transformed into meaningful units for analysis, temporal and spatial patterns were described, time-series methods and a temporal aberration detection algorithm applied. Distinct annual and spatial trends plus seasonal patterns were observed in the three age groups investigated. The algorithm produced an alarm at the point of an historic known departure from normal (April 2013) for two age groups, across Scotland as a whole and in specific postcode areas. The analysis was then extended. Initially, to determine if similar methods could be applied to ovine fallen stock collections from England and Wales for the same time period. Additionally, Scottish contemporaneous laboratory diagnostic submission data were analyzed to see if they could provide further insight for interpretation of statistical alarms. Collaboration was required between the primary data holders, those with industry sector knowledge, plus veterinary, epidemiological and statistical expertise, in order to turn data and analytical outcomes into potentially useful information. A number of limitations were identified and recommendations were made as to how some could be addressed in order to facilitate use of these data as surveillance "intelligence." e.g., improvements to data collection and provision. A recent update of the fallen stock collections data has enabled a longer temporal period to be analyzed, with evidence of changes made in line with the recommendations. Further development will be required before a functional system can be implemented. However, there is potential for use of these data as: a proxy measure for mortality in the sheep population; complementary components in a future surveillance system, and to inform the design of additional surveillance system components.