Risk of alcohol-associated liver disease in the offspring of parents with alcohol-associated liver disease: A nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Offspring of patients with alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD) may have a higher risk of ALD. We examined their risk of ALD and survival with ALD. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We used Danish nationwide registries to identify the offspring of patients diagnosed with ALD in 1996-2018 and 20:1 matched comparators from the general population. They were followed for ALD diagnosis through 2018. We used landmark competing risk analysis to estimate the age-specific absolute and relative 10-year risks of ALD. ALD was diagnosed in 385 of 60,707 offspring and 2842 of 1,213,357 comparators during 0.7 and 14.0 million person-years of follow-up, respectively, yielding an incidence rate ratio of 2.73 (95% CI: 2.44-3.03). The risk of being diagnosed with ALD within the next 10 years peaked at age 55 years for offspring and age 57 years for comparators with 10-year risks of 1.66% (95% CI: 1.16-2.30) in offspring and 0.81% (95% CI: 0.68-0.97) in comparators at these ages. Offspring were younger at ALD diagnosis than comparators (median age of 47.4 vs. 48.9 years), yet slightly more of them had developed cirrhosis (60.3% vs. 58.7%). Survival after ALD diagnosis was similar in offspring and comparators, adjusted hazard ratio=1.03 (95% CI: 0.88-1.21), so on average offspring died younger due to their younger age at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: Offspring of patients with ALD had a low but increased risk of ALD. Screening offspring for chronic liver disease may be unnecessary, but other interventions to mitigate alcohol-associated harm should be considered.

Adverse health outcomes in offspring of parents with alcohol-related liver disease: Nationwide Danish cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Parental drinking can cause harm to the offspring. A parent's diagnosis of alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) might be an opportunity to reach offspring with preventive interventions. We investigated offspring risk of adverse health outcomes throughout life, their association with their parent's educational level and diagnosis of ALD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used nationwide health registries to identify offspring of parents diagnosed with ALD in Denmark 1996 to 2018 and age- and sex-matched comparators (20:1). We estimated the incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of hospital contacts with adverse health outcomes, overall and in socioeconomic strata. We used a self-controlled design to examine whether health outcomes were more likely to occur during the first year after the parent's ALD diagnosis. The 60,804 offspring of parents with ALD had a higher incidence rate of hospital contacts from age 15 to 60 years for psychiatric disease, poisoning, fracture or injury, alcohol-specific diagnoses, other substance abuse, and of death than comparators. Associations were stronger for offspring with low compared to high socioeconomic position: The IRR for admission due to poisoning was 2.2 versus 1.0 for offspring of an ALD parent with a primary level versus a highly educated ALD parent. Offspring had an increased risk for admission with psychiatric disease and poisoning in the year after their parent's ALD diagnosis. For example, among offspring whose first hospital contact with psychiatric disease was at age 13 to 25 years, the IRR in the first year after their parent's ALD diagnosis versus at another time was 1.29 (95% CI 1.13, 1.47). Main limitation was inability to include adverse health outcomes not involving hospital contact. CONCLUSIONS: Offspring of parents with ALD had a long-lasting higher rate of health outcomes associated with poor mental health and self-harm that increased shortly after their parent's diagnosis of ALD. Offspring of parents of low educational level were particularly vulnerable. This study highlights an opportunity to reach out to offspring in connection with their parent's hospitalization with ALD.

Ethnicity and socio-economic status affects the incidence and survival of hepatosplenic T-cell lymphoma.

To address the lack of contemporary population-based epidemiological studies of hepatosplenic T-cell lymphoma (HSTCL), we undertook a population-based study of ICD-O-3-coded HSTCL in England. We used the National Cancer Registration Dataset and linked datasets on hospital admissions, Systemic Anti-Cancer Therapy, socio-demographics, comorbidities and death, identifying cases from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2019 with survival data up to 5 January 2021. Crude and directly age-standardised incidence rates per million persons per year were calculated. Crude and adjusted incidence rate ratios compared incidence between groups using Poisson regression. A Cox proportional hazards model estimated mortality risks adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation and allogenic stem cell transplant (allo-SCT; time varying). We identified 44 patients, mean age 42 years. Median survival was 11 months, and 1 and 5 year survivals were 48% (95% CI 29%-43%) and 22% (95% CI 12%-42%) respectively. The age-standardised incidence was 0.1 per million/year. Incidence was higher in areas with greater deprivation (0.15 per million/year), and more cases than expected were in non-White patients (39%). Non-Whites had a twofold increased risk of death (adjusted hazard ratio 2.21 [95% CI 1.03-4.78]) even after adjusting for deprivation, younger age and allo-SCT. In conclusion, ethnicity and socio-economic status affect both the incidence and survival of HSTCL.

Primary Liver Cancer Risk and Mortality in Patients With Alcohol-Related Cirrhosis in England and Denmark: Observational Cohort Studies.

INTRODUCTION: Patients with alcohol-related cirrhosis (ALD cirrhosis) have an increased risk of primary liver cancer (hepatocellular carcinoma [HCC] or intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma [iCCA]). England recommends surveillance for HCC in these patients, while Denmark does not. METHODS: We performed an observational cohort study using the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink and the nationwide Danish healthcare registries to identify 17,110 English (2000-2016) and 22,122 Danish (1994-2022) patients with diagnosis codes of ALD cirrhosis. We computed and compared incidence rates and cumulative incidence of primary liver cancer, annual ultrasound scan rates, and mortality following diagnosis of primary liver cancer. RESULTS: The overall risk of primary liver cancer was similar in England and Denmark: 5-year risk was 2.24% (95% confidence interval 2.00-2.49) in England (iCCA 0.07%, HCC 2.16%) and 2.36% (2.15-2.57) in Denmark (iCCA 0.05%, HCC 2.30%). The annual rate of ultrasound scans per person was 0.65 (0.63-0.67) in England and 0.44 (0.42-0.46) in Denmark. The 1-year mortality after a diagnosis of primary liver cancer was 59.2% (54.4-64.0) in England and 60.9% (57.4-64.4) in Denmark. The 3-year risks of HCC in those on vs off surveillance in England were 2.3% (1.0-4.6) vs 1.5% (1.0-2.2). DISCUSSION: The risk of primary liver cancer was the same in English and Danish patients with ALD cirrhosis, and HCCs constituted 97% of primary liver cancers. Mortality with primary liver cancer was equally high in both countries. Notably, in England, where guidance recommends biannual HCC surveillance with ultrasound, patients with ALD cirrhosis were undergoing fewer than 1 ultrasound scan per year.

Population-Based Study of Alcohol-Related Liver Disease in England in 2001-2018: Influence of Socioeconomic Position.

INTRODUCTION: England has seen an increase in deaths due to alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) since 2001. We studied the influence of socioeconomic position on the incidence of ALD and the mortality after ALD diagnosis in England in 2001-2018. METHODS: This was an observational cohort study based on health records contained within the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink covering primary care, secondary care, cause of death registration, and deprivation of neighborhood areas in 18.8 million residents. We estimated incidence rate and incidence rate ratios of ALD and hazard ratios of mortality. RESULTS: ALD was diagnosed in 57,784 individuals with a median age of 54 years and of whom 43% had cirrhosis. The ALD incidence rate increased by 65% between 2001 and 2018 in England to reach 56.1 per 100,000 person-years in 2018. The ALD incidence was 3-fold higher in those from the most deprived quintile vs those from the least deprived quintile (incidence rate ratio 3.30, 95% confidence interval 3.21-3.38), with reducing inequality at older than at younger ages. For 55- to 74-year-olds, there was a notable increase in the incidence rate between 2001 and 2018, from 96.1 to 158 per 100,000 person-years in the most deprived quintile and from 32.5 to 70.0 in the least deprived quintile. After ALD diagnosis, the mortality risk was higher for patients from the most deprived quintile vs those from the least deprived quintile (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.18-1.27), and this ratio did not change during 2001-2018. DISCUSSION: The increasing ALD incidence in England is a greater burden on individuals of low economic position compared with that on those of high socioeconomic position. This finding highlights ALD as a contributor to inequality in health.

The effect of diabetes mellitus on perioperative outcomes after colorectal resection: a national cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus is a significant modulator of postoperative outcomes and is an important risk factor in the patient selection process. We aimed to investigate the effect of diabetes mellitus and use of insulin on outcomes after colorectal resection using a national cohort. METHODS: Adults with a recorded colorectal resection in England between 2010 and 2020 were identified from Hospital Episode Statistics data linked to the Clinical Practice Research Database. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Secondary outcomes included hospital length of stay (LOS) and readmission within 90 days. RESULTS: Of the 106 139 (52 875, 49.8% male) patients included, diabetes mellitus was prevalent in 10 931 (10.3%), 2145 (19.6%) of whom had a record of use of insulin. Unadjusted 90-day mortality risk was 5.7%, with an increased adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for people with diabetes mellitus (aHR 1.28, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.37, P<0.001). This risk was higher in both people with diabetes using insulin (aHR 1.51, 95% CI 1.31-1.74, P<0.001) and not using insulin (aHR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13-1.33, P<0.001), compared with those without diabetes. Ninety-day readmission occurred in 20 542 (19.4%) patients and this was more likely in those with diabetes mellitus (aHR 1.23, 95% CI 1.18-1.29, P<0.001). Median (inter-quartile range) LOS was 8 (5-15) days and was higher in people with diabetes mellitus (adjusted time ratio 1.10, 95% CI 1.08-1.11, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: People with diabetes mellitus undergoing colorectal resection are at a higher risk of 90-day mortality, prolonged LOS, and 90-day readmission, with use of insulin associated with additional risk.

Risk of liver fibrosis associated with long-term methotrexate therapy may be overestimated.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The risk of significant liver fibrosis from prolonged methotrexate (MTX) exposure has been estimated at around 5%, prompting intensive monitoring strategies. However, the evidence is derived from retrospective studies that under-reported risk factors for liver disease. We evaluated the risk of long-term MTX therapy on liver fibrosis in a longitudinal cohort study using two non-invasive markers. METHOD: Between 2014-2021, adult patients diagnosed with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or psoriasis for ≥2 years were recruited prospectively from six UK sites. The MTX group included patients who received MTX for ≥6 months, whereas the unexposed group included those who never received MTX. All patients underwent full liver profiling, with transient elastography (TE) and enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) marker measurements. RESULTS: A total of 999 patients (mean age 60.8 ± 12 years, 62.3% females) were included. Of 976 with valid TE values, 149 (15.3%) had liver stiffness ≥7.9 kPa. Of 892 with a valid ELF, 262 (29.4%) had ELF ≥9.8. Age and BMI were independently associated with elevated liver stiffness and ELF. Neither MTX cumulative dose nor duration was associated with elevated liver stiffness. Diabetes was the most significant risk factor associated with liver stiffness ≥7.9 kPa (adjusted odds ratio = 3.19; 95% CI 1.95-5.20; p <0.001). Regular use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs showed the strongest association with ELF ≥9.8 (odds ratio = 1.76; 95% CI 1.20-2.56; p = 0.003), suggesting the degree of joint inflammation in RA may confound ELF as a non-invasive marker of liver fibrosis. CONCLUSION: The risk of liver fibrosis attributed to MTX itself might have been previously overestimated; there is a need to consider modifying current monitoring guidelines for MTX. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: Current guidelines recommend intensive (2-3 monthly) monitoring strategies for patients on long-term methotrexate therapy due to the potential risk of liver fibrosis. Evaluation of the association using two validated non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis, liver stiffness and enhanced liver fibrosis score, in a large cohort of patients with rheumatoid arthritis or psoriasis shows that the reported risk has previously been overestimated. The clinical focus should be to improve patients' metabolic risk factors, diabetes and BMI, that are independently associated with liver stiffness. There is a need to consider modifying current treatment monitoring guidelines for methotrexate.

Helicobacter pylori eradication for primary prevention of peptic ulcer bleeding in older patients prescribed aspirin in primary care (HEAT): a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Peptic ulcers in patients receiving aspirin are associated with Helicobacter pylori infection. We aimed to investigate whether H pylori eradication would protect against aspirin-associated ulcer bleeding. METHODS: We conducted a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial (Helicobacter Eradication Aspirin Trial [HEAT]) at 1208 primary care centres in the UK, using routinely collected clinical data. Eligible patients were aged 60 years or older who were receiving aspirin at a daily dose of 325 mg or less (with four or more 28-day prescriptions in the past year) and had a positive C13 urea breath test for H pylori at screening. Patients receiving ulcerogenic or gastroprotective medication were excluded. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive either a combination of oral clarithromycin 500 mg, metronidazole 400 mg, and lansoprazole 30 mg (active eradication), or oral placebo (control), twice daily for 1 week. Participants, their general practitioners and health-care providers, and the research nurses, trial team, adjudication committee, and analysis team were all masked to group allocation throughout the trial. Follow-up was by scrutiny of electronic data in primary and secondary care. The primary outcome was time to hospitalisation or death due to definite or probable peptic ulcer bleeding, and was analysed by Cox proportional hazards methods in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered with EudraCT, 2011-003425-96. FINDINGS: Between Sept 14, 2012, and Nov 22, 2017, 30 166 patients had breath testing for H pylori, 5367 had a positive result, and 5352 were randomly assigned to receive active eradication (n=2677) or placebo (n=2675) and were followed up for a median of 5·0 years (IQR 3·9-6·4). Analysis of the primary outcome showed a significant departure from proportional hazards assumptions (p=0·0068), requiring analysis over separate time periods. There was a significant reduction in incidence of the primary outcome in the active eradication group in the first 2·5 years of follow-up compared with the control group (six episodes adjudicated as definite or probable peptic ulcer bleeds, rate 0·92 [95% CI 0·41-2·04] per 1000 person-years vs 17 episodes, rate 2·61 [1·62-4·19] per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio [HR] 0·35 [95% CI 0·14-0·89]; p=0·028). This advantage remained significant after adjusting for the competing risk of death (p=0·028) but was lost with longer follow-up (HR 1·31 [95% CI 0·55-3·11] in the period after the first 2·5 years; p=0·54). Reports of adverse events were actively solicited; taste disturbance was the most common event (787 patients). INTERPRETATION: H pylori eradication protects against aspirin-associated peptic ulcer bleeding, but this might not be sustained in the long term. FUNDING: National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment.

Characterizing the risk interplay between alcohol intake and body mass index on cirrhosis morbidity.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is thought that alcohol intake and body mass index (BMI) interact supra-additively to modulate the risk of cirrhosis, but evidence for this phenomenon is limited. We investigated the interrelationship between alcohol and BMI on the incidence of cirrhosis morbidity for participants of the United Kingdom Biobank (UKB) study. APPROACH AND RESULTS: The primary outcome was the cumulative incidence of cirrhosis morbidity, defined as a first-time hospital admission for cirrhosis (with noncirrhosis mortality incorporated as a competing risk). All UKB participants without a previous hospital admission for cirrhosis were included in the analysis. We determined the ratio of the 10-year cumulative incidence in harmful drinkers versus safe drinkers according to BMI. We also calculated the excess cumulative incidence at 10 years for individuals with obesity and/or harmful alcohol compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI of 20-25.0 kg/m2 . A total of 489,285 UK Biobank participants were included, with mean of 10.7 person-years' follow-up. A total of 2070 participants developed the primary outcome, equating to a crude cumulative incidence of 0.36% at 10 years (95% CI:0.34-0.38). The 10-year cumulative incidence was 8.6 times higher for harmful (1.38%) versus safe drinkers (0.16%) if BMI was healthy. Conversely, it was only 3.6 times higher for obese participants (1.99% vs. 0.56%). Excess cumulative incidence was 1.22% (95% CI:0.89-1.55) for harmful drinkers with a healthy BMI, 0.40% (95% CI:0.34-0.46) for obese individuals drinking at safe levels, and 1.83% (95% CI:1.46-2.20) for obese harmful drinkers (all compared to safe drinkers with a healthy BMI). CONCLUSIONS: Alcohol intake and obesity are independent risk factors for cirrhosis morbidity, but they do not interact supra-additively to modulate the cumulative incidence of this outcome.

Risk of Postoperative Venous Thromboembolism After Benign Colorectal Surgery: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolism is a well-established preventable complication after colectomy. Specific guidance on venous thromboembolism prevention after colectomy for benign disease is limited. OBJECTIVE: This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the venous thromboembolism risk after benign colorectal resection and determine its variability. DATA SOURCES: Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology Guidelines (PROSPERO: CRD42021265438), Embase, MEDLINE, and 4 other registered medical literature databases were searched from the database inception to June 21, 2021. STUDY SELECTION: Inclusion criteria: randomized controlled trials and large population-based database cohort studies reporting 30-day and 90-day venous thromboembolism rates after benign colorectal resection in patients aged ≥18 years. Exclusion criteria: patients undergoing colorectal cancer or completely endoscopic surgery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Thirty- and 90-day venous thromboembolism incidence rates per 1000 person-years after benign colorectal surgery. RESULTS: Seventeen studies were eligible for meta-analysis reporting on 250,170 patients. Pooled 30-day and 90-day venous thromboembolism incidence rates after benign colorectal resection were 284 (95% CI, 224-360) and 84 (95% CI, 33-218) per 1000 person-years. Stratified by admission type, 30-day venous thromboembolism incidence rates per 1000 person-years were 532 (95% CI, 447-664) for emergency resections and 213 (95% CI, 100-453) for elective colorectal resections. Thirty-day venous thromboembolism incidence rates per 1000 person-years after colectomy were 485 (95% CI, 411-573) for patients with ulcerative colitis, 228 (95% CI, 181-288) for patients with Crohn's disease, and 208 (95% CI, 152-288) for patients with diverticulitis. LIMITATIONS: High degree of heterogeneity was observed within most meta-analyses attributable to large cohorts minimizing within-study variance. CONCLUSIONS: Venous thromboembolism rates remain high up to 90 days after colectomy and vary by indication for surgery. Emergency resections compared to elective benign resections have higher rates of postoperative venous thromboembolism. Further studies reporting venous thromboembolism rates by type of benign disease need to stratify rates by admission type to more accurately define venous thromboembolism risk after colectomy. REGISTRATION NO: CRD42021265438.

Outcomes after emergency appendicectomy in patients with liver cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study from England.

INTRODUCTION: The mortality risk after appendicectomy in patients with liver cirrhosis is predicted to be higher than in the general population given the associated risk of perioperative bleeding, infections and liver decompensation. This population-based cohort study aimed to determine the 90-day mortality risk following emergency appendicectomy in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Adult patients undergoing emergency appendicectomy in England between January 2001 and December 2018 were identified from two linked primary and secondary electronic healthcare databases, the clinical practice research datalink and hospital episode statistics data. Length of stay, re-admission, case fatality and the odds ratio of 90-day mortality were calculated for patients with and without cirrhosis, adjusting for age, sex and co-morbidity using logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 40,353 patients underwent appendicectomy and of these 75 (0.19%) had cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis were more likely to be older (p < 0.0001) and have comorbidities (p < 0.0001). Proportionally, more patients with cirrhosis underwent an open appendicectomy (76%) compared with 64% of those without cirrhosis (p = 0.03). The 90-day case fatality rate was 6.67% in patients with cirrhosis compared with 0.56% in patients without cirrhosis. Patients with cirrhosis had longer hospital length of stay (4 (IQR 3-9) days versus 3 (IQR 2-4) days and higher readmission rates at 90 days (20% vs 11%, p = 0.019). Most importantly, their odds of death at 90 days were 3 times higher than patients without cirrhosis, adjusted odds ratio 3.75 (95% CI 1.35-10.49). CONCLUSION: Patients with cirrhosis have a threefold increased odds of 90-day mortality after emergency appendicectomy compared to those without cirrhosis.

Venous thromboembolism following colectomy for diverticular disease: an English population-based cohort study.

AIM: This study reports venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates following colectomy for diverticular disease to explore the magnitude of postoperative VTE risk in this population and identify high risk subgroups of interest. METHOD: English national cohort study of colectomy patients between 2000 and 2019 using linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care data. Stratified by admission type, absolute incidence rates (IR) per 1000 person-years and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) were calculated for 30- and 90-day post-colectomy VTE. RESULTS: Of 24,394 patients who underwent colectomy for diverticular disease, over half (57.39%) were emergency procedures with the highest VTE rate seen in patients ≥70-years-old (IR 142.27 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 118.32-171.08) at 30 days post colectomy. Emergency resections (IR 135.18 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 115.72-157.91) had double the risk (aIRR 2.07, 95%CI 1.47-2.90) of developing a VTE at 30 days following colectomy compared to elective resections (IR 51.14 per 1000 person-years, 95%CI 38.30-68.27). Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) was shown to be associated with a 64% reduction in VTE risk (aIRR 0.36 95%CI 0.20-0.65) compared to open colectomies at 30 days post-op. At 90 days following emergency resections, VTE risks remained raised compared to elective colectomies. CONCLUSION: Following emergency colectomy for diverticular disease, the VTE risk is approximately double compared to elective resections at 30 days while MIS was found to be associated with a reduced risk of VTE. This suggests advancements in postoperative VTE prevention in diverticular disease patients should focus on those undergoing emergency colectomies.

Inverse association between blood pressure and pulse oximetry accuracy: an observational study in patients with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection.

BACKGROUND: Pulse oximeters are a standard non-invasive tool to measure blood oxygen levels, and are used in multiple healthcare settings. It is important to understand the factors affecting their accuracy to be able to use them optimally and safely. This analysis aimed to explore the association of the measurement error of pulse oximeters with systolic BP, diastolic BP and heart rate (HR) within ranges of values commonly observed in clinical practice. METHODS: The study design was a retrospective observational study of all patients admitted to a large teaching hospital with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 infection from February 2020 to December 2021. Data on systolic and diastolic BPs and HR levels were available from the same time period as the pulse oximetry measurements. RESULTS: Data were available for 3420 patients with 5927 observations of blood oxygen saturations as measured by pulse oximetry and ABG sampling within 30 min. The difference in oxygen saturation using the paired pulse oximetry and arterial oxygen saturation difference measurements was inversely associated with systolic BP, increasing by 0.02% with each mm Hg decrease in systolic BP (95% CI 0.00% to 0.03%) over a range of 80-180 mm Hg. Inverse associations were also observed between the error for oxygen saturation as measured by pulse oximetry and with both diastolic BP (+0.03%; 95% CI 0.00% to 0.05%) and HR (+0.04%; 95% CI 0.02% to 0.06% for each unit decrease in the HR). CONCLUSIONS: Care needs to be taken in interpreting pulse oximetry measurements in patients with lower systolic and diastolic BPs, and HRs, as oxygen saturation is overestimated as BP and HR decrease. Confirmation of the oxygen saturation with an ABG may be appropriate in some clinical scenarios.

Cholecystectomy in patients with cirrhosis: a population-based cohort study from England.

BACKGROUND: This population-based cohort study aimed to determine postoperative outcomes after emergency and elective cholecystectomy in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: Linked electronic healthcare data from England were used to identify all patients undergoing cholecystectomy between January 2000 and December 2017. Length of stay (LOS), re-admission, case fatality and the odds ratio of 90-day mortality were calculated for patients with and without cirrhosis, adjusting for age, sex and co-morbidity using logistic regression. RESULTS: Of the total 69,141 eligible patients who underwent a cholecystectomy, 511 (0.74%) had cirrhosis. In patients without cirrhosis 86.55% underwent a laparoscopic procedure compared with 57.53% in patients with cirrhosis (p < 0.0001). LOS was longer in those with cirrhosis (3 IQR 1-8 vs 1 IQR 1-3 days,p < 0.0001). 90-day re-admission was greater in patients with cirrhosis, 36.79% compared with 14.95% in those without cirrhosis. 90-day case fatality after elective cholecystectomy in patients with and without cirrhosis was 2.79% and 0.43%; and 12.82% and 2.39% following emergency cholecystectomy. This equated to a 3-fold (OR 3.22, IQR 1.72-6.02) and a 4-fold (OR 4.52, IQR 2.46-8.33) increased odds of death at 90-days following elective and emergency cholecystectomy after adjusting for confounders. CONCLUSION: Patients with cirrhosis undergoing cholecystectomy have an increased 90-day risk of postoperative mortality, which is significantly worse after emergency procedures.

Predicting Need for Escalation of Care or Death From Repeated Daily Clinical Observations and Laboratory Results in Patients With Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.

We compared the performance of prognostic tools for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) using parameters fitted either at the time of hospital admission or across all time points of an admission. This cohort study used clinical data to model the dynamic change in prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 at a single hospital center in the United Kingdom, including all patients admitted from February 1, 2020, to December 31, 2020, and then followed up for 60 days for intensive care unit (ICU) admission, death, or discharge from the hospital. We incorporated clinical observations and blood tests into 2 time-varying Cox proportional hazards models predicting daily 24- to 48-hour risk of admission to the ICU for those eligible for escalation of care or death for those ineligible for escalation. In developing the model, 491 patients were eligible for ICU escalation and 769 were ineligible for escalation. Our model had good discrimination of daily risk of ICU admission in the validation cohort (n = 1,141; C statistic: C = 0.91, 95% confidence interval: 0.89, 0.94) and our score performed better than other scores (National Early Warning Score 2, International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Comprehensive Clinical Characterisation Collaboration score) calculated using only parameters measured on admission, but it overestimated the risk of escalation (calibration slope = 0.7). A bespoke daily SARS-CoV-2 escalation risk prediction score can predict the need for clinical escalation better than a generic early warning score or a single estimation of risk calculated at admission.

Incidence, prevalence and survival in patients with Langerhans cell histiocytosis: A national registry study from England, 2013-2019.

This analysis is the largest population-based study to date to provide contemporary and comprehensive epidemiological estimates of all third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) coded Langerhans cell histiocytosis (LCH) from England. People of all ages were identified from the National Cancer Registration Dataset using ICD-O-3 morphologies 9751-9754 for neoplasms diagnosed in 2013-2019. A total of 658 patients were identified, of whom 324 (49%) were children aged <15 years. The age-standardised incidence rate was 4.46 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.99-4.98) per million children and 1.06 (95% CI 0.94-1.18) per million adults aged ≥15 years. Prevalence of LCH was 9.95 (95% CI 9.14-10.81) per million persons at the end of 2019. The 1-year overall survival (OS) was 99% (95% CI 97%-100%) for children and 90% (95% CI 87%-93%) for adults. Those aged ≥60 years had poorer OS than those aged <15 years (hazard ratio [HR] 22.12, 95% CI 7.10-68.94; p < 0.001). People in deprived areas had lower OS than those in the least deprived areas (HR 5.36, 95% CI 1.16-24.87; p = 0.03). There will inevitably be other environmental factors and associations yet to be identified, and the continued standardised data collection will allow further evaluation of data over time. This will be increasingly important with developments in LCH management following the large collaborative international trials such as LCH IV.

The Duration and Magnitude of Postdischarge Venous Thromboembolism Following Colectomy.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impact of current guidelines by reporting weekly postoperative postdischarge venous thromboembolism (VTE) rates. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Disparity exists between the postoperative thromboprophylaxis duration colectomy patients receive based on surgical indication, where malignant resections routinely receive 28 days extended thromboprophylaxis into the postdischarge period and benign resections do not. METHODS: English national cohort study of colectomy patients between 2010 and 2019 using linked primary (Clinical Practice Research Datalink) and secondary (Hospital Episode Statistics) care data. Stratified by admission type and surgical indication, absolute incidence rates (IRs) per 1000 person-years and adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) for postdischarge VTE were calculated for the first 4 weeks following resection and postdischarge VTE IRs for each postoperative week to 12 weeks postoperative. RESULTS: Of 104,744 patients, 663 (0.63%) developed postdischarge VTE within 12 weeks after colectomy. Postdischarge VTE IRs per 1000 person-years for the first 4 weeks postoperative were low following elective resections [benign: 20.66, 95% confidence interval (CI): 13.73-31.08; malignant: 28.95, 95% CI: 23.09-36.31] and higher following emergency resections (benign: 47.31, 95% CI: 34.43-65.02; malignant: 107.18, 95% CI: 78.62-146.12). Compared with elective malignant resections, there was no difference in postdischarge VTE risk within 4 weeks following elective benign colectomy (aIRR=0.92, 95% CI: 0.56-1.50). However, postdischarge VTE risks within 4 weeks following emergency resections were significantly greater for benign (aIRR=1.89, 95% CI: 1.22-2.94) and malignant (aIRR=3.13, 95% CI: 2.06-4.76) indications compared with elective malignant colectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Postdischarge VTE risk within 4 weeks of colectomy is ∼2-fold greater following emergency benign compared with elective malignant resections, suggesting emergency benign colectomy patients may benefit from extended VTE prophylaxis.

Motivation to Reduce Drinking and Engagement in Alcohol Misuse Treatment in Alcohol-Related Liver Disease: A National Health Survey.

INTRODUCTION: The study aim was to identify predictors of motivation to reduce alcohol consumption and whether motivation predicts engagement in alcohol misuse treatment in alcohol-related liver disease (ALD). METHODS: Data from health surveys and health-care registries were combined. RESULTS: Of 674 patients with ALD, 65% consumed alcohol. Recent hospital admission and severe alcohol problems were associated with motivation to reduce alcohol consumption. Two-year probability for engagement in misuse treatment was 29% for patients with motivation to reduce alcohol consumption versus 6.5% for patients without motivation. DISCUSSION: ALD patients with recent hospital admission were more motivated to cut down alcohol consumption, and motivation predicted engagement in alcohol misuse treatment. This insight can help us target brief interventions.

Chest Radiograph Scoring Alone or Combined with Other Risk Scores for Predicting Outcomes in COVID-19.

Background Radiographic severity may help predict patient deterioration and outcomes from COVID-19 pneumonia. Purpose To assess the reliability and reproducibility of three chest radiograph reporting systems (radiographic assessment of lung edema [RALE], Brixia, and percentage opacification) in patients with proven SARS-CoV-2 infection and examine the ability of these scores to predict adverse outcomes both alone and in conjunction with two clinical scoring systems, National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) and International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium: Coronavirus Clinical Characterization Consortium (ISARIC-4C) mortality. Materials and Methods This retrospective cohort study used routinely collected clinical data of patients with polymerase chain reaction-positive SARS-CoV-2 infection admitted to a single center from February 2020 through July 2020. Initial chest radiographs were scored for RALE, Brixia, and percentage opacification by one of three radiologists. Intra- and interreader agreement were assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients. The rate of admission to the intensive care unit (ICU) or death up to 60 days after scored chest radiograph was estimated. NEWS2 and ISARIC-4C mortality at hospital admission were calculated. Daily risk for admission to ICU or death was modeled with Cox proportional hazards models that incorporated the chest radiograph scores adjusted for NEWS2 or ISARIC-4C mortality. Results Admission chest radiographs of 50 patients (mean age, 74 years ± 16 [standard deviation]; 28 men) were scored by all three radiologists, with good interreader reliability for all scores, as follows: intraclass correlation coefficients were 0.87 for RALE (95% CI: 0.80, 0.92), 0.86 for Brixia (95% CI: 0.76, 0.92), and 0.72 for percentage opacification (95% CI: 0.48, 0.85). Of 751 patients with a chest radiograph, those with greater than 75% opacification had a median time to ICU admission or death of just 1-2 days. Among 628 patients for whom data were available (median age, 76 years [interquartile range, 61-84 years]; 344 men), opacification of 51%-75% increased risk for ICU admission or death by twofold (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI: 1.6, 2.8), and opacification greater than 75% increased ICU risk by fourfold (hazard ratio, 4.0; 95% CI: 3.4, 4.7) compared with opacification of 0%-25%, when adjusted for NEWS2 score. Conclusion Brixia, radiographic assessment of lung edema, and percentage opacification scores all reliably helped predict adverse outcomes in SARS-CoV-2 infection. © RSNA, 2021 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Little in this issue.

Incidence and survival of haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis: A population-based cohort study from England.

BACKGROUND: Haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis (HLH) is a rare hyper-inflammatory condition with poor outcomes. OBJECTIVES: Few population-based estimates of the incidence and survival in adults exist. We aimed to provide these data for England. METHODS: We used population-based linked data from primary care, secondary care, cancer registries and mortality databases in England to identify people diagnosed with HLH between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2016. We calculated annual incidence rates by age and sex, modelled change in incidence over time with Poisson regression, calculated overall 1-year survival using Kaplan-Meier methods and estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of death using a Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: We identified 214 patients with HLH. The reported age and sex-adjusted incidence increased twofold over the period, from around one to around two per million. Incidence was highest in those below 1 year (14.6 per million) and ≥75 years (2.2 per million), and lowest in those aged 15-44 years (0.8 per million). One-year survival varied by age and sex from 77% (95% confidence interval [CI] 63%-86%) in those <15 years to 30% (95% CI 14%-49%) in those ≥75. In patients with haematological cancer, the adjusted HR for death was 2.60 (95% CI 1.45-4.66) compared to patients with no malignant or rheumatological disease. CONCLUSION: The incidence of HLH diagnosis in England has increased between 2000 and 2016 and occurs in all ages with varying underlying diseases. One-year survival varies substantially, being particularly poor in those aged over 75 years and those with haematological malignancy.