Dynamics of Serum CA19-9 in Patients Undergoing Pancreatic Cancer Resection.

BACKGROUND: Carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 is an established perioperative prognostic biomarker for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). However, it is unclear how CA19-9 monitoring should be used during postoperative surveillance to detect recurrence and to guide the initiation of recurrence-focused therapy. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to elucidate the value of CA19-9 as a diagnostic biomarker for disease recurrence in patients who underwent PDAC resection. METHODS: Serum CA19-9 levels at diagnosis, after surgery, and during postoperative follow-up were analyzed in patients who underwent PDAC resection. All patients with at least two postoperative follow-up CA19-9 measurements before recurrence were included. Patients deemed to be nonsecretors of CA19-9 were excluded. The relative increase in postoperative CA19-9 was calculated for each patient by dividing the maximum postoperative CA19-9 value by the first postoperative value. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to identify the optimal threshold for the relative increase in CA19-9 levels to identify recurrence in the training set using Youden's index. The performance of this cutoff was validated in a test set by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and was compared to the performance of the optimal cutoff for postoperative CA19-9 measurements as a continuous value. In addition, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values were assessed. RESULTS: In total, 271 patients were included, of whom 208 (77%) developed recurrence. Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that a relative increase in postoperative serum CA19-9 of 2.6× was predictive of recurrence, with 58% sensitivity, 83% specificity, 95% positive predictive value, and 28% negative predictive value. The AUC for a 2.6× relative increase in the CA19-9 level was 0.719 in the training set and 0.663 in the test set. The AUC of postoperative CA19-9 as a continuous value (optimal threshold, 52) was 0.671 in the training set. In the training set, the detection of a 2.6-fold increase in CA19-9 preceded the detection of recurrence by a mean difference of 7 months ( P <0.001) and in the test set by 10 months ( P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A relative increase in the postoperative serum CA19-9 level of 2.6-fold is a stronger predictive marker for recurrence than a continuous CA19-9 cutoff. A relative CA19-9 increase can precede the detection of recurrence on imaging for up to 7 to 10 months. Therefore, CA19-9 dynamics can be used as a biomarker to guide the initiation of recurrence-focused treatment.

Defining the Minimal and Optimal Thresholds for Lymph Node Resection and Examination for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm Derived Pancreatic Cancer: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To establish minimal and optimal lymphadenectomy thresholds for intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and evaluate their prognostic value. BACKGROUND: Current guidelines recommend a minimum of 12-15 lymph nodes (LNs) in PDAC. This is largely based on pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN)-derived PDAC, a biologically distinct entity from IPMN-derived PDAC. METHODS: Multicenter retrospective study including consecutive patients undergoing upfront surgery for IPMN-derived PDAC was conducted. The minimum cut-off for lymphadenectomy was defined as the maximum number of LNs where a significant node positivity difference was observed. Maximally selected log-rank statistic was used to derive the optimal lymphadenectomy cut-off (maximize survival). Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank tests were used to analyze overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). Multivariable Cox-regression was used to determine hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). RESULTS: In 341 patients with resected IPMN-derived PDAC, the minimum number of LNs needed to ensure accurate nodal staging was 10 (P=0.040), whereas ≥20 LNs was the optimal number associated with improved OS (80.3 vs. 37.2 mo, P<0.001). Optimal lymphadenectomy was associated with improved OS [HR:0.57 (95%CI 0.39-0.83)] and RFS [HR:0.70 (95%CI 0.51-0.97)] on multivariable Cox-regression. On sub-analysis the optimal lymphadenectomy cut-offs for pancreatoduodenectomy, distal pancreatectomy, and total pancreatectomy were 20 (P<0.001), 23 (P=0.160), and 25 (P=0.008). CONCLUSION: In IPMN-derived PDAC, lymphadenectomy with at least 10 lymph nodes mitigates under-staging, and at least 20 lymph nodes is associated with the improved survival. Specifically, for pancreatoduodenectomy and total pancreatectomy, 20 and 25 lymph nodes were the optimal cut-offs.

Informing Decision-making for Transected Margin Reresection in Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm-derived PDAC: An International Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the prognostic impact of margin status in patients with resected intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN)-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and to inform future intraoperative decision-making on handling differing degrees of dysplasia on frozen section. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: The ideal oncologic surgical outcome is a negative transection margin with normal pancreatic epithelium left behind. However, the prognostic significance of reresecting certain degrees of dysplasia or invasive cancer at the pancreatic neck margin during pancreatectomy for IPMN-derived PDAC is debatable. METHODS: Consecutive patients with resected and histologically confirmed IPMN-derived PDAC (2002-2022) from six international high-volume centers were included. The prognostic relevance of a positive resection margin (R1) and degrees of dysplasia at the pancreatic neck margin were assessed by log-rank test and multivariable Cox-regression for overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS). RESULTS: Overall, 832 patients with IPMN-derived PDAC were included with 322 patients (39%) having an R1-resection on final pathology. Median OS (mOS) was significantly longer in patients with an R0 status compared to those with an R1 status (65.8 vs. 26.3 mo P<0.001). Patients without dysplasia at the pancreatic neck margin had similar OS compared to those with low-grade dysplasia (mOS: 78.8 vs. 66.8 months, P=0.344). However, high-grade dysplasia (mOS: 26.1 mo, P=0.001) and invasive cancer (mOS: 25.0 mo, P<0.001) were associated with significantly worse OS compared to no or low-grade dysplasia. Patients who underwent conversion of high-risk margins (high-grade or invasive cancer) to a low-risk margin (low-grade or no dysplasia) after intraoperative frozen section had significantly superior OS compared to those with a high-risk neck margin on final pathology (mOS: 76.9 vs. 26.1 mo P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In IPMN-derived PDAC, normal epithelium or low-grade dysplasia at the neck have similar outcomes while pancreatic neck margins with high-grade dysplasia or invasive cancer are associated with poorer outcomes. Conversion of a high-risk to low-risk margin after intraoperative frozen section is associated with survival benefit and should be performed when feasible.

Evaluation of Short- and Long-Term Outcomes After Resection in Patients with Locally Advanced versus (Borderline) Resectable Pancreatic Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate short- and long-term outcomes following pancreatectomy in patients with LAPC compared to (B)RPC patients. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Selected patients diagnosed with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) are increasingly undergoing resection following induction chemotherapy. To evaluate the benefit of this treatment approach, it is helpful to compare outcomes in resected patients with primary LAPC to outcomes in resected patients with primary (borderline) resectable pancreatic cancer ((B)RPC). METHODS: Two prospectively maintained nationwide databases were used for this study. Patients with (B)RPC undergoing upfront tumor resection and patients with resected LAPC after induction therapy were included. Outcomes were postoperative pancreas-specific complications, 90-day mortality, pathological outcomes, disease-free interval (DFI), and overall survival (OS). RESULTS: Overall, 879 patients were included; 103 with LAPC (12%) and 776 with (B)RPC (88%). LAPC patients had a lower WHO performance score and CACI. Postoperative pancreas-specific complications were comparable between groups, except delayed gastric emptying grade C, which occurred more often in LAPC patients (9% vs. 3%, P=0.03). Ninety-day mortality was comparable. About half of the patients in both groups (54% in LAPC vs. 48% in (B)RPC), P=0.21) had a radical resection (R0). DFI was 13 months in both groups (P=0.12) and OS from date of diagnosis was 24 months in LAPC patients and 19 months in (B)RPC patients (P=0.34). CONCLUSIONS: In our nationwide prospective databases, pancreas-specific complications, mortality and survival in patients with LAPC following pancreatectomy are comparable with those undergoing resection for (B)RPC. These outcomes suggest that postoperative morbidity and mortality after tumor resection in carefully selected patients with LAPC are acceptable.

Total versus Partial Pancreatectomy in Patients with Pancreatic Cancer Arising from Multifocal or Diffuse Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasia - A Multicenter Observational Study.

AIM: To investigate the impact of total pancreatectomy (TP) on oncological outcomes for patients at high-risk of local recurrence or secondary progression in the remnant gland after partial pancreatectomy (PP) for IPMN-associated cancer. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Major risk factors for invasive progression in the remnant gland include multifocality, diffuse main duct dilation, and the presence of invasive cancer. In these high-risk patients, a TP may be oncologically beneficial. However, current guidelines discourage TP, especially in elderly patients. METHODS: This international multicenter study compares TP versus PP in patients with adenocarcinoma arising from multifocal or diffuse IPMN (2002-2022). Log-rank test and multivariable Cox-analysis with interaction analysis was performed to assess overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and local-DFS. RESULTS: Of 359 included patients, 162 (45%) were treated with TP, whereas 197 (55%) underwent PP. Despite TP and PP having similar R0-rates (59% vs. 58%, P=0.866), patients undergoing a TP had significantly longer local-DFS compared to PP (P=0.039). However, no difference in OS was observed between the two surgical approaches (P=0.487). In a multivariable analysis, young age (optimal cut-off ≤63.6 yrs) was associated with an OS benefit derived from TP (HR:0.44, 95%CI:0.22-0.89), whereas no significant difference was observed in elderly patients (HR:1.24, 95%CI:0.92-1.67, Pinteraction=0.007). CONCLUSION: Since overall, patients with diffuse or multifocal IPMN with an invasive component do not benefit from TP in terms of OS, the indication for TP may be individualized to young patients who have sufficient life expectancy to benefit from the prevention of secondary progression or local recurrence.

Predicting Long-term Disease-free Survival After Resection of Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a prediction model for long-term (≥5 years) disease-free survival (DFS) after the resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). BACKGROUND: Despite high recurrence rates, ~10% of patients have long-term DFS after PDAC resection. A model to predict long-term DFS may aid individualized prognostication and shared decision-making. METHODS: This nationwide cohort study included all consecutive patients who underwent PDAC resection in the Netherlands (2014-2016). The best-performing prognostic model was selected by Cox-proportional hazard analysis and Akaike's Information Criterion, presented by hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Internal validation was performed, and discrimination and calibration indices were assessed. RESULTS: In all, 836 patients with a median follow-up of 67 months (interquartile range 51-79) were analyzed. Long-term DFS was seen in 118 patients (14%). Factors predictive of long-term DFS were low preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (logarithmic; HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.10-1.32), no vascular resection (HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.12-1.58), T1 or T2 tumor stage (HR 1.52; 95% CI 1.14-2.04, and HR 1.17; 95% CI 0.98-1.39, respectively), well/moderate tumor differentiation (HR 1.44; 95% CI 1.22-1.68), absence of perineural and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.42; 95% CI 1.11-1.81 and HR 1.14; 95% CI 0.96-1.36, respectively), N0 or N1 nodal status (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.54-2.40, and HR 1.33; 95% CI 1.11-1.60, respectively), R0 resection margin status (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.07-1.46), no major complications (HR 1.14; 95% CI 0.97-1.35) and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR 1.74; 95% CI 1.47-2.06). Moderate performance (concordance index 0.68) with adequate calibration (slope 0.99) was achieved. CONCLUSIONS: The developed prediction model, readily available at www.pancreascalculator.com, can be used to estimate the probability of long-term DFS after resection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

Perineural Invasion is an Important Prognostic Factor in Patients With Radically Resected (R0) and Node-negative (pN0) Pancreatic Cancer.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association between perineural invasion (PNI) and overall survival (OS) in a nationwide cohort of patients with resected pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), stratified for margin negative (R0) or positive (R1) resection and absence or presence of lymph node metastasis (pN0 or pN1-N2, respectively). BACKGROUND: Patients with R0 and pN0 resected PDAC have a relatively favorable prognosis. As PNI is associated with worse OS, this might be a useful factor to provide further prognostic information for patients counselling. METHODS: A nationwide observational cohort study was performed including all patients who underwent PDAC resection in the Netherlands (2014-2019) with complete information on relevant pathological features (PNI, R status, and N status). OS was assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves, and Cox-proportional hazard analyses were performed to calculate hazard ratio's (HR) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: In total, 1630 patients were included with a median follow-up of 43 (interquartile range 33-58) months. PNI was independently associated with worse OS in both R0 patients (HR 1.49 [95%CI 1.18-1.88]; P<0.001) and R1 patients (HR 1.39 [95% CI 1.06-1.83]; P=0.02), as well as in pN0 patients (HR 1.75 [95%CI 1.27-2.41]; P<0.001) and pN1-N2 patients (HR 1.35 [95% CI 1.10-1.67]; P<0.01). In 315 patients with R0N0, multivariable analysis showed that PNI was the strongest predictor of OS (HR 2.24 [95% CI 1.52-3.30]; P<0.001). CONCLUSION: PNI is strongly associated with worse survival in patients with resected PDAC, in particular in patients with relatively favorable pathological features. These findings may aid patient stratification and counselling and help guide treatment strategies.

Poor Prognostic Factors in Long-Term Survivors of Resected Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma: An International, Multicenter Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To measure the rate of LTS in resected PDAC and determine the association between predictors of OS and LTS. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: Long-term survival (>5 y, LTS) remains rare in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Multiple predictors of overall survival (OS) are known but their association with LTS remains unclear. METHODS: An international, multicenter retrospective study was conducted. Included were patients from 2012-2019 with resected PDAC. Excluded were those with metastases at diagnosis or resection, R2 resections, and 90-day mortality. Predictors of OS were identified using multivariable Cox regression and their prevalence in patients with LTS assessed. LTS was calculated by excluding patients with shorter follow-up and predictors of LTS were identified using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: 3,003 patients were included (27.4% received neoadjuvant chemotherapy). Elevated baseline CA19-9, high tumor grade, nodal disease, and perineural and lymphovascular invasion were negative independent predictors of OS, while receipt of adjuvant chemotherapy predicted improved OS (all P<0.05). LTS was observed in 220/2,436 patients (9.0%), of whom 198 (90%) harbored poor prognostic factors: elevated baseline CA19-9 (58.1%), poor tumor differentiation (51.0%), nodal disease (46.8%), and perineural invasion (76.0%). Of those without any of these four features, 50.0% achieved LTS as compared to 21.3%, 13.3%, 5.2%, and 3.5% in those with 1, 2, 3, or 4 features. CONCLUSIONS: This bi-national cohort demonstrates a true LTS rate of 9.0% in resected PDAC. Clinicians should remain aware that presence of poor prognostic factors does not preclude LTS.

DNA Methylation Profiling Enables Accurate Classification of Nonductal Primary Pancreatic Neoplasms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Cytologic and histopathologic diagnosis of non-ductal pancreatic neoplasms can be challenging in daily clinical practice, whereas it is crucial for therapy and prognosis. The cancer methylome is successfully used as a diagnostic tool in other cancer entities. Here, we investigate if methylation profiling can improve the diagnostic work-up of pancreatic neoplasms. METHODS: DNA methylation data were obtained for 301 primary tumors spanning 6 primary pancreatic neoplasms and 20 normal pancreas controls. Neural Network, Random Forest, and extreme gradient boosting machine learning models were trained to distinguish between tumor types. Methylation data of 29 nonpancreatic neoplasms (n = 3708) were used to develop an algorithm capable of detecting neoplasms of non-pancreatic origin. RESULTS: After benchmarking 3 state-of-the-art machine learning models, the random forest model emerged as the best classifier with 96.9% accuracy. All classifications received a probability score reflecting the confidence of the prediction. Increasing the score threshold improved the random forest classifier performance up to 100% with 87% of samples with scores surpassing the cutoff. Using a logistic regression model, detection of nonpancreatic neoplasms achieved an area under the curve of >0.99. Analysis of biopsy specimens showed concordant classification with their paired resection sample. CONCLUSIONS: Pancreatic neoplasms can be classified with high accuracy based on DNA methylation signatures. Additionally, non-pancreatic neoplasms are identified with near perfect precision. In summary, methylation profiling can serve as a valuable adjunct in the diagnosis of pancreatic neoplasms with minimal risk for misdiagnosis, even in the pre-operative setting.

Evaluation of AJCC Nodal Staging for Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasm-Derived Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) eighth edition is based on pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), a biologically distinct entity from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-derived pancreatic cancer. The role of nodal disease and the AJCC's prognostic utility for IPMN-derived pancreatic cancer are unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the prognostic role of nodal disease and the AJCC eighth-edition N-staging for IPMN-derived pancreatic cancer. METHODS: Upfront-surgery patients with IPMN-derived PDAC from four centers were stratified according to the AJCC eighth-edition N stage. Disease characteristics were compared using descriptive statistics, and both overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were evaluated using log-rank tests. Multivariable Cox regression was performed to determine the prognostic value of N stage for OS, presented as hazard ratios with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs). A lowest p value log-rank statistic was used to derive the optimal cutoff for node-positive disease. RESULTS: For 360 patients, advanced N stage was associated with worse T stage, grade, tubular histology, and perineural and lymphovascular invasion (all p < 0.05). The median OS was 98.3 months (95 % CI 82.8-122.0 months) for N0 disease, 27.8 months (95 % CI 24.4-41.7 months) for N1 disease, and 18.1 months (95 % CI 16.2-25.9 months) for N2 disease (p < 0.001). The AJCC N stage was validated and associated with worse OS (N1 [HR 1.64; range, 1.05-2.57], N2 [HR2.42; range, 1.48-3.96]) and RFS (N1 [HR 1.81; range, 1.23-2.68], N2 [HR 3.72; range, 2.40-5.77]). The optimal cutoff for positive nodes was five nodes. CONCLUSION: The AJCC eighth-edition N-staging is valid and prognostic for both OS and RFS in IPMN-derived PDAC.

The Value of Biological and Conditional Factors for Staging of Patients with Resectable Pancreatic Cancer Undergoing Upfront Resection: A Nationwide Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Novel definitions suggest that resectability status for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) should be assessed beyond anatomical criteria, considering both biological and conditional factors. This has, however, yet to be validated on a nationwide scale. This study evaluated the prognostic value of biological and conditional factors for staging of patients with resectable PDAC. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A nationwide observational cohort study was performed, including all consecutive patients who underwent upfront resection of National Comprehensive Cancer Network resectable PDAC in the Netherlands (2014-2019) with complete information on preoperative carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status. PDAC was considered biologically unfavorable (RB+) if CA19-9 ≥ 500 U/mL and favorable (RB-) otherwise. ECOG ≥ 2 was considered conditionally unfavorable (RC+) and favorable otherwise (RC-). Overall survival (OS) was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox-proportional hazard analysis, presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: Overall, 688 patients were analyzed with a median overall survival (OS) of 20 months (95% CI 19-23). OS was 14 months (95% CI 10 months-median not reached) in 20 RB+C+ patients (3%; HR 1.61, 95% CI 0.86-2.70), 13 months (95% CI 11-15) in 156 RB+C- patients (23%; HR 1.86, 95% CI 1.50-2.31), and 21 months (95% CI 12-41) in 47 RB-C+ patients (7%; HR 1.14, 95% CI 0.80-1.62) compared with 24 months (95% CI 22-27) in 465 patients with RB-C- PDAC (68%; reference). CONCLUSIONS: Survival after upfront resection of anatomically resectable PDAC is worse in patients with CA19-9 ≥ 500 U/mL, while performance status had no impact. This supports consideration of CA19-9 in preoperative staging of resectable PDAC.

Outcomes in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm-derived pancreatic cancer differ from PanIN-derived pancreatic cancer.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN)-derived pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) management is generally extrapolated from pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PanIN)-derived PDAC guidelines. However, these are biologically divergent, and heterogeneity further exists between tubular and colloid subtypes. METHODS: Consecutive upfront surgery patients with PanIN-derived and IPMN-derived PDAC were retrospectively identified from international centers (2000-2019). One-to-one propensity score matching for clinicopathologic factors generated three cohorts: IPMN-derived versus PanIN-derived PDAC, tubular IPMN-derived versus PanIN-derived PDAC, and tubular versus colloid IPMN-derived PDAC. Overall survival (OS) was compared using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank tests. Multivariable Cox regression determined corresponding hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). RESULTS: The median OS (mOS) in 2350 PanIN-derived and 700 IPMN-derived PDAC patients was 23.0 and 43.1 months (P < 0.001), respectively. PanIN-derived PDAC had worse T-stage, CA19-9, grade, and nodal status. Tubular subtype had worse T-stage, CA19-9, grade, nodal status, and R1 margins, with a mOS of 33.7 versus 94.1 months (P < 0.001) in colloid. Matched (n = 495), PanIN-derived and IPMN-derived PDAC had mOSs of 30.6 and 42.8 months (P < 0.001), respectively. In matched (n = 341) PanIN-derived and tubular IPMN-derived PDAC, mOS remained poorer (27.7 vs 37.4, P < 0.001). Matched tubular and colloid cancers (n = 112) had similar OS (P = 0.55). On multivariable Cox regression, PanIN-derived PDAC was associated with worse OS than IPMN-derived (HR: 1.66, 95% CI: 1.44-1.90) and tubular IPMN-derived (HR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.32-1.77) PDAC. Colloid and tubular subtype was not associated with OS (P = 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: PanIN-derived PDAC has worse survival than IPMN-derived PDAC supporting distinct outcomes. Although more indolent, colloid IPMN-derived PDAC has similar survival to tubular after risk adjustment.

Early Recurrence After Resection of Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Following Induction Therapy: An International Multicenter Study.

OBJECTIVE: To establish an evidence-based cutoff and predictors for early recurrence in patients with resected locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC). BACKGROUND: It is unclear how many and which patients develop early recurrence after LAPC resection. Surgery in these patients is probably of little benefit. METHODS: We analyzed all consecutive patients undergoing resection of LAPC after induction chemotherapy who were included in prospective databases in The Netherlands (2015-2019) and the Johns Hopkins Hospital (2016-2018). The optimal definition for "early recurrence" was determined by the post-recurrence survival (PRS). Patients were compared for overall survival (OS). Predictors for early recurrence were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: Overall, 168 patients were included. After a median follow-up of 28 months, recurrence was observed in 118 patients (70.2%). The optimal cutoff for recurrence-free survival to differentiate between early (n=52) and late recurrence (n=66) was 6 months ( P <0.001). OS was 8.4 months [95% confidence interval (CI): 7.3-9.6] in the early recurrence group (n=52) versus 31.1 months (95% CI: 25.7-36.4) in the late/no recurrence group (n=116) ( P <0.001). A preoperative predictor for early recurrence was postinduction therapy carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9≥100 U/mL [odds ratio (OR)=4.15, 95% CI: 1.75-9.84, P =0.001]. Postoperative predictors were poor tumor differentiation (OR=4.67, 95% CI: 1.83-11.90, P =0.001) and no adjuvant chemotherapy (OR=6.04, 95% CI: 2.43-16.55, P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Early recurrence was observed in one third of patients after LAPC resection and was associated with poor survival. Patients with post-induction therapy CA 19-9 ≥100 U/mL, poor tumor differentiation and no adjuvant therapy were especially at risk. This information is valuable for patient counseling before and after resection of LAPC.

Risk Models for Developing Pancreatic Fistula After Pancreatoduodenectomy: Validation in a Nationwide Prospective Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the performance of published fistula risk models by external validation, and to identify independent risk factors for postoperative pancreatic fistula (POPF). BACKGROUND: Multiple risk models have been developed to predict POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy. External validation in high-quality prospective cohorts is, however, lacking or only performed for individual models. METHODS: A post hoc analysis of data from the stepped-wedge cluster cluster-randomized Care After Pancreatic Resection According to an Algorithm for Early Detection and Minimally Invasive Management of Pancreatic Fistula versus Current Practice (PORSCH) trial was performed. Included were all patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy in the Netherlands (January 2018-November 2019). Risk models on POPF were identified by a systematic literature search. Model performance was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating curves (AUC) and calibration plots. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify independent risk factors associated with clinically relevant POPF. RESULTS: Overall, 1358 patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy were included, of whom 341 patients (25%) developed clinically relevant POPF. Fourteen risk models for POPF were evaluated, with AUCs ranging from 0.62 to 0.70. The updated alternative fistula risk score had an AUC of 0.70 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.69-0.72). The alternative fistula risk score demonstrated an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.689-0.71), whilst an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.699-0.71) was also found for the model by Petrova and colleagues. Soft pancreatic texture, pathology other than pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma or chronic pancreatitis, small pancreatic duct diameter, higher body mass index, minimally invasive resection and male sex were identified as independent predictors of POPF. CONCLUSION: Published risk models predicting clinically relevant POPF after pancreatoduodenectomy have a moderate predictive accuracy. Their clinical applicability to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment strategies is therefore questionable.

Algorithm-based care versus usual care for the early recognition and management of complications after pancreatic resection in the Netherlands: an open-label, nationwide, stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial.

BACKGROUND: Early recognition and management of postoperative complications, before they become clinically relevant, can improve postoperative outcomes for patients, especially for high-risk procedures such as pancreatic resection. METHODS: We did an open-label, nationwide, stepped-wedge cluster-randomised trial that included all patients having pancreatic resection during a 22-month period in the Netherlands. In this trial design, all 17 centres that did pancreatic surgery were randomly allocated for the timing of the crossover from usual care (the control group) to treatment given in accordance with a multimodal, multidisciplinary algorithm for the early recognition and minimally invasive management of postoperative complications (the intervention group). Randomisation was done by an independent statistician using a computer-generated scheme, stratified to ensure that low-medium-volume centres alternated with high-volume centres. Patients and investigators were not masked to treatment. A smartphone app was designed that incorporated the algorithm and included the daily evaluation of clinical and biochemical markers. The algorithm determined when to do abdominal CT, radiological drainage, start antibiotic treatment, and remove abdominal drains. After crossover, clinicians were trained in how to use the algorithm during a 4-week wash-in period; analyses comparing outcomes between the control group and the intervention group included all patients other than those having pancreatic resection during this wash-in period. The primary outcome was a composite of bleeding that required invasive intervention, organ failure, and 90-day mortality, and was assessed by a masked adjudication committee. This trial was registered in the Netherlands Trial Register, NL6671. FINDINGS: From Jan 8, 2018, to Nov 9, 2019, all 1805 patients who had pancreatic resection in the Netherlands were eligible for and included in this study. 57 patients who underwent resection during the wash-in phase were excluded from the primary analysis. 1748 patients (885 receiving usual care and 863 receiving algorithm-centred care) were included. The primary outcome occurred in fewer patients in the algorithm-centred care group than in the usual care group (73 [8%] of 863 patients vs 124 [14%] of 885 patients; adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0·48, 95% CI 0·38-0·61; p<0·0001). Among patients treated according to the algorithm, compared with patients who received usual care there was a decrease in bleeding that required intervention (47 [5%] patients vs 51 [6%] patients; RR 0·65, 0·42-0·99; p=0·046), organ failure (39 [5%] patients vs 92 [10%] patients; 0·35, 0·20-0·60; p=0·0001), and 90-day mortality (23 [3%] patients vs 44 [5%] patients; 0·42, 0·19-0·92; p=0·029). INTERPRETATION: The algorithm for the early recognition and minimally invasive management of complications after pancreatic resection considerably improved clinical outcomes compared with usual care. This difference included an approximate 50% reduction in mortality at 90 days. FUNDING: The Dutch Cancer Society and UMC Utrecht.

Risk Factors for Cholangitis After Pancreatoduodenectomy: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: Cholangitis is a late complication after pancreatoduodenectomy with considerable clinical impact and is difficult to treat. The aim of this systematic review was to provide an overview of the literature identifying risk factors for postoperative cholangitis. METHODS: A systematic search of the databases PUBMED and EMBASE was performed to identify all studies reporting on possible risk factors for cholangitis following pancreatoduodenectomy. Data on patient, peri- and postoperative characteristics were collected. Risk of bias assessment was done according to the methodological index for non-randomized studies (MINORS) criteria. RESULTS: In total, 464 studies were identified. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria for this analysis. The definition of postoperative cholangitis was inconsistent, with four studies using the Tokyo Guidelines, whereas other studies used different definitions. Data on 26 potential risk factors concerning the patient, peri- and postoperative characteristics were analyzed. Five factors were significantly associated with cholangitis in two or more studies: high body mass index, duration of surgery, benign disease, postoperative pancreatic fistula, and postoperative serum alkaline phosphatase. CONCLUSION: Multiple potential risk factors for postoperative cholangitis were identified, with large discrepancies between studies. Prospective research, with consensus on the definition, is required to determine the true relevance of these risk factors.

Nationwide evaluation of pancreatic cancer networks ten years after the centralization of pancreatic surgery.

BACKGROUND: Due to centralization of pancreatic surgery, patients with pancreatic cancer are treated in pancreatic cancer networks, composed of referring hospitals (Spokes) and an expert center (Hub). This study aimed to investigate I) how pancreatic cancer networks are organized and II) evaluated by involved clinicians. METHODS: Two online surveys were sent out between January-May 2022. Part I was sent out to the surgical network directors of all hospitals of the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Group (DPCG). Part II was sent out to all involved clinicians in the Hubs-and-Spokes networks. RESULTS: There was a large variety between the 15 networks concerning number of affiliated Spokes (1-7), annual pancreatoduodenectomies (20-129), and use of a service level agreement (SLA) (40%). More Spoke clinicians considered the Spoke the best location for diagnostic workup (74% vs 36%, P < 0.001). Only 30% of Spoke clinicians attended the Hubs multidisciplinary team meeting frequently. More Hub clinicians thought that exchange of patient information should be improved (37% vs 51%, P = 0.005). CONCLUSION: A large variety in Dutch pancreatic cancer networks was observed concerning number of affiliated Spokes, use of SLAs, and logistic aspects of network care. Improvement of network care concern agreements on diagnostic workup, use of SLA, Spoke participation in the MDT, and patient information exchange.

Alternative Randomized Trial Designs in Surgery: A Systematic Review.

INTRODUCTION: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) yield the highest level of evidence but are notoriously difficult to perform in surgery. Surgical RCTs may be hampered by slow accrual, the surgical learning curve, and lack of financial support. Alternative RCT designs such as stepped-wedge randomized controlled trials (SW-RCTs), registry-based randomized controlled trials (RB-RCTs), and trials-within-cohorts (TwiCs) may overcome several of these difficulties. This review provides an overview of alternative RCT designs used in surgical research. METHODS: We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Central for surgical SW-RCTs, RB-RCTs, and TwiCs. A surgical RCT was defined as a randomized trial that studied interventions in patients undergoing general surgery, regardless of the affiliation of the corresponding author. Exponential regression analysis was performed to assess time trends. RESULTS: Overall, 41 surgical RCTs using alternative designs were identified, including 17 published final RCT reports and 24 published protocols of ongoing RCTs. These included 25 SW-RCTs (61%), 13 RB-RCTs (32%), and 3 TwiCs (7%). Most of these RCTs were performed in Europe (63%) and within gastrointestinal/oncological surgery (41%). The total number of RCTs using alternative designs exponentially increased over the last 7 years ( P <0.01), with 95% (n=39/41) of the total number published within this time frame. The most reported reasons for using alternative RCT designs were avoidance of contamination for SW-RCTs and generalizability of the trial population for RB-RCTs and TwiCs. CONCLUSIONS: Alternative RCT designs are increasingly used in surgical research, mostly in Europe and within gastrointestinal/oncological surgery. When adequately used, these alternative designs may overcome several difficulties associated with surgical RCTs.

Impact of Complications After Pancreatoduodenectomy on Mortality, Organ Failure, Hospital Stay, and Readmission: Analysis of a Nationwide Audit.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of individual complications on mortality, organ failure, hospital stay, and readmission after pancreatoduodenectomy. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: An initial complication may provoke a sequence of adverse events potentially leading to mortality after pancreatoduodenectomy. This study was conducted to aid prioritization of quality improvement initiatives. METHODS: Data from consecutive patients undergoing pancreatoduodenectomy (2014-2017) were extracted from the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were calculated for the association of each complication (ie, postoperative pancreatic fistula, postpancreatectomy hemorrhage, bile leakage, delayed gastric emptying, wound infection, and pneumonia) with each unfavorable outcome [ie, in-hospital mortality, organ failure, prolonged hospital stay (>75th percentile), and unplanned readmission), whereas adjusting for confounders and other complications. The PAF represents the proportion of an outcome that could be prevented if a complication would be eliminated completely. RESULTS: Overall, 2620 patients were analyzed. In-hospital mortality occurred in 95 patients (3.6%), organ failure in 198 patients (7.6%), and readmission in 427 patients (16.2%). Postoperative pancreatic fistula and postpancreatectomy hemorrhage had the greatest independent impact on mortality [PAF 25.7% (95% CI 13.4-37.9) and 32.8% (21.9-43.8), respectively] and organ failure [PAF 21.8% (95% CI 12.9-30.6) and 22.1% (15.0-29.1), respectively]. Delayed gastric emptying had the greatest independent impact on prolonged hospital stay [PAF 27.6% (95% CI 23.5-31.8)]. The impact of individual complications on unplanned readmission was smaller than 11%. CONCLUSION: Interventions focusing on postoperative pancreatic fistula and postpancreatectomy hemorrhage may have the greatest impact on in-hospital mortality and organ failure. To prevent prolonged hospital stay, initiatives should in addition focus on delayed gastric emptying.

Detection, Treatment, and Survival of Pancreatic Cancer Recurrence in the Netherlands: A Nationwide Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether detection of recurrent pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) in an early, asymptomatic stage increases the number of patients receiving additional treatment, subsequently improving survival. SUMMARY OF BACKGROUND DATA: International guidelines disagree on the value of standardized postoperative surveillance for early detection and treatment of PDAC recurrence. METHODS: A nationwide, observational cohort study was performed including all patients who underwent PDAC resection (2014-2016). Prospective baseline and perioperative data were retrieved from the Dutch Pancreatic Cancer Audit. Data on follow-up, treatment, and survival were collected retrospectively. Overall survival (OS) was evaluated using multivariable Cox regression analysis, before and after propensity-score matching, stratified for patients with symptomatic and asymptomatic recurrence. RESULTS: Eight hundred thirty-six patients with a median follow-up of 37 months (interquartile range 30-48) were analyzed. Of those, 670 patients (80%) developed PDAC recurrence after a median follow-up of 10 months (interquartile range 5-17). Additional treatment was performed in 159/511 patients (31%) with symptomatic recurrence versus 77/159 (48%) asymptomatic patients (P < 0.001). After propensity-score matching on lymph node ratio, adjuvant therapy, disease-free survival, and recurrence site, additional treatment was independently associated with improved OS for both symptomatic patients [hazard ratio 0.53 (95% confidence interval 0.42-0.67); P < 0.001] and asymptomatic patients [hazard ratio 0.45 (95% confidence interval 0.29-0.70); P < 0.001]. CONCLUSIONS: Additional treatment of PDAC recurrence was independently associated with improved OS, with asymptomatic patients having a higher probability to receive recurrence treatment. Therefore, standardized postoperative surveillance aiming to detect PDAC recurrence before the onset of symptoms has the potential to improve survival. This provides a rationale for prospective studies on standardized surveillance after PDAC resection.