Data-driven modelling for assessing trophic status in marine ecosystems using machine learning approaches.

Assessing eutrophication in coastal and transitional waters is of utmost importance, yet existing Trophic Status Index (TSI) models face challenges like multicollinearity, data redundancy, inappropriate aggregation methods, and complex classification schemes. To tackle these issues, we developed a novel tool that harnesses machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), enhancing the reliability and accuracy of trophic status assessments. Our research introduces an improved data-driven methodology specifically tailored for transitional and coastal (TrC) waters, with a focus on Cork Harbour, Ireland, as a case study. Our innovative approach, named the Assessment Trophic Status Index (ATSI) model, comprises three main components: the selection of pertinent water quality indicators, the computation of ATSI scores, and the implementation of a new classification scheme. To optimize input data and minimize redundancy, we employed ML techniques, including advanced deep learning methods. Specifically, we developed a CHL prediction model utilizing ten algorithms, among which XGBoost demonstrated exceptional performance, showcasing minimal errors during both training (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.0, MAE = 0.01) and testing (RMSE = 0.0, MSE = 0.0, MAE = 0.01) phases. Utilizing a novel linear rescaling interpolation function, we calculated ATSI scores and evaluated the model's sensitivity and efficiency across diverse application domains, employing metrics such as R2, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and the model efficiency factor (MEF). The results consistently revealed heightened sensitivity and efficiency across all application domains. Additionally, we introduced a brand new classification scheme for ranking the trophic status of transitional and coastal waters. To assess spatial sensitivity, we applied the ATSI model to four distinct waterbodies in Ireland, comparing trophic assessment outcomes with the Assessment of Trophic Status of Estuaries and Bays in Ireland (ATSEBI) System. Remarkably, significant disparities between the ATSI and ATSEBI System were evident in all domains, except for Mulroy Bay. Overall, our research significantly enhances the accuracy of trophic status assessments in marine ecosystems. The ATSI model, combined with cutting-edge ML techniques and our new classification scheme, represents a promising avenue for evaluating and monitoring trophic conditions in TrC waters. The study also demonstrated the effectiveness of ATSI in assessing trophic status across various waterbodies, including lakes, rivers, and more. These findings make substantial contributions to the field of marine ecosystem management and conservation.

Does microwave interstitial hyperthermia prior to high-dose-rate brachytherapy change prostate volume or therapy plan parameters?

PURPOSE: In this prospective preliminary study we evaluated changes of prostate volume and changes of brachytherapy treatment plan parameters due to interstitial hyperthermia (IHT) applied prior to high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDRBT), compared to our standard HDRBT procedure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In a group of 60 consecutive patients with prostate adenocarcinoma, 30 were treated with HDRBT alone and 30 with IHT preceding HDRBT. Prior to catheter implantation, a 'virtual' treatment plan (VP) was complied, a 'live' plan (LP) was prepared before patient irradiation, and a 'post' plan (PP) was drawn up after completing the irradiation procedure. In each plan, based on transrectal ultrasound images, the contours of the prostate, urethra, and rectum were delineated and the respective volumes and dose-volume histogram parameters were evaluated. These parameters, established for the LP, were then compared with those of the PP. RESULTS: Changes in prostate volume and in parameters of the treatment plans were observed, but differences between the two patient groups were not statistically significant. For all 60 patients treated, the average prostate volume in the VP was 32 cm(3), in the LP 41 cm(3), and the PP 43 cm(3). Average values of relative changes in the therapy planning parameters between LP and PP were for the prostate D90 -5.7%, V100 -5.6%, V200 -13.2%, for the urethra D0, 1 cm(3) -1.6%, and for rectum D2 cm(3) 0%. CONCLUSION: Hyperthermia prior to HDRBT does not significantly change the volume of the prostate and there is no need to perform the new treatment plan after the hyperthermia session.

Role of irradiation in combined treatment of head and neck paragangliomas at the Centre of Oncology in Krakow between 1970-2005.

AIM OF THE STUDY: Aim of the study is to evaluate the results of postoperative radiotherapy of paragangliomas, prognostic factors and causes of treatment failure. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Forty-four patients (39 females and 5 males) aged 20 to 74 years were treated for paraganglioma between 1970 and 2010 at the Centre of Oncology in Kraków. Patient survival probability was estimated with the Kaplan-Meier method. Log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazard model were used in univariate and multivariate analysis, respectively. RESULTS: The most common locations of paragangliomas were the following: the ear, carotid body and internal jugular vein bulb. Forty (91%) out of them were benign and 4 - malignant. All patients underwent surgery followed by adjuvant radiotherapy. The delivered dose ranged from 50 to 72 Gy, the mean dose was 60 Gy. Five-year overall survival was 84%. Five-year relapse-free survival was 84%, either. The multivariate analysis has shown that the dose in an independent prognostic factor for the overall survival. The univariate analysis has shown significantly higher 5-year overall survival in patients who received a dose of 60 Gy or higher - 92% vs. 70% in patients who received a dose lower than 60 Gy. CONCLUSIONS: Postoperative radiotherapy with doses higher than 60 Gy in patients with paragangliomas is associated with longer overall survival.

Assessment of human health risk from potentially toxic elements and predicting groundwater contamination using machine learning approaches.

The Rooppur Nuclear Power Plant (RNPP) at Ishwardi, Bangladesh is planning to go into operation within 2024 and therefore, adjacent areas of RNPP is gaining adequate attention from the scientific community for environmental monitoring purposes especially for water resources management. However, there is a substantial lack of literature as well as environmental datasets for earlier years since very little was done at the beginning of the RNPP's construction phase. Therefore, this study was conducted to assess the potential toxic elements (PTEs) contamination in the groundwater and its associated health risk for residents at the adjacent part of the RNPP during the year of 2014-2015. For the purposes of achieving the aim of the study, groundwater samples were collected seasonally (dry and wet season) from nine sampling sites and afterwards analyzed for water quality indicators such as temperature (Temp.), pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total dissolved solid (TDS), total hardness (TH) and for PTEs including Iron (Fe), Manganese (Mn), Copper (Cu), Lead (Pb), Chromium (Cr), Cadmium (Cd) and Arsenic (As). This study adopted the newly developed Root Mean Square water quality index (RMS-WQI) model to assess the scenario of contamination from PTEs in groundwater whereas the human health risk assessment model was utilized to quantify the risk of toxicity from PTEs. In most of the sampling sites, PTEs concentration was found higher during the wet season than the dry season and Fe, Mn, Cd and As exceeded the guideline limit for drinking water. The RMS score mostly classified the groundwater in terms of PTEs contamination into "Fair" condition. The non-carcinogenic risks (expressed as Hazard Index-HI) revealed that around 44% and 89% of samples for adults and 67% and 100% of samples for children exceeded the threshold limit set by USEPA (HI > 1) and possessed risks through the oral pathway during dry and wet season, respectively. Furthermore, the calculated cumulative HI score was found higher for children than the adults throughout the study period. In terms of carcinogenic risk (CR) from PTEs, the magnitude of risk decreased following the pattern of Cr > As > Cd. Although the current study is based on old dataset, the findings might serve as a baseline for monitoring purposes to reduce future hazardous impact from the power plant.

Assessing the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on surface water quality in Ireland using advanced Irish water quality index (IEWQI) model.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted various aspects of life, including environmental conditions. Surface water quality (WQ) is one area affected by lockdowns imposed to control the virus's spread. Numerous recent studies have revealed the considerable impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface WQ. In response, this research aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 lockdowns on surface water quality in Ireland using an advanced WQ model. To achieve this goal, six years of water quality monitoring data from 2017 to 2022 were collected for nine water quality indicators in Cork Harbour, Ireland, before, during, and after the lockdowns. These indicators include pH, water temperature (TEMP), salinity (SAL), biological oxygen demand (BOD5), dissolved oxygen (DOX), transparency (TRAN), and three nutrient enrichment indicators-dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), molybdate reactive phosphorus (MRP), and total oxidized nitrogen (TON). The results showed that the lockdown had a significant impact on various WQ indicators, particularly pH, TEMP, TON, and BOD5. Over the study period, most indicators were within the permissible limit except for MRP, with the exception of during COVID-19. During the pandemic, TON and DIN decreased, while water transparency significantly improved. In contrast, after COVID-19, WQ at 7% of monitoring sites significantly deteriorated. Overall, WQ in Cork Harbour was categorized as "good," "fair," and "marginal" classes over the study period. Compared to temporal variation, WQ improved at 17% of monitoring sites during the lockdown period in Cork Harbour. However, no significant trend in WQ was observed. Furthermore, the study analyzed the advanced model's performance in assessing the impact of COVID-19 on WQ. The results indicate that the advanced WQ model could be an effective tool for monitoring and evaluating lockdowns' impact on surface water quality. The model can provide valuable information for decision-making and planning to protect aquatic ecosystems.

Application of an Adsorption Process on Selected Materials, Including Waste, as a Barrier to the Pesticide Penetration into the Environment.

The article presents research on using the adsorption process of aldrin (a chloro-organic pesticide that most often occurs in the environment near expired pesticide burials). The research used three sorbents: two activated carbons and compost from sewage sludge as a low-cost sorbent. Obtained adsorption isotherms belong to the L group according to the Giles classification. The test results and their analysis confirm that the IZO application facilitates the analysis of the adsorption process. The study results also confirm that compost can be a cost-effective alternative to commercial activated carbons to build barriers protecting the environment against existing leaking expired pesticide burials.

Analysis of Selected Methods Use for Calculation of the Coefficients of Adsorption Isotherms and Simplified Equations of Adsorption Dynamics with the Use of IZO Application.

The purpose of this paper is to present the IZO application that calculates and visualizes coefficients of adsorption isotherms according to Freundlich, Langmuir, and BET in a classic and linear system, in a simple communicative way. The application also calculates the working time of the adsorption bed based on the transformation of the mass balance equation, and according to the Zuchowicki, Zabiezinski, Tichonow, and the Bohart-Adams equations. The laboratory tests of the adsorption process of leachate from a municipal landfill on selected active coals ORGANOSORB 10, DESOTEK, and BA-10, were conducted to check the program for accuracy. Results of tests confirm that the linearization method of the calculation of adsorption isotherms coefficients, used in the IZO application, gives sufficient accuracy and may be used as an alternative of, e.g., the nonlinear estimation method.

The Irish Atlantic CoCliME case study configuration, validation and application of a downscaled ROMS ocean climate model off SW Ireland.

This ocean numerical modelling study is focused on the shelf waters off southwest Ireland. Outputs from the model are used to provide scientists and policy makers with climate change information related to oceanic conditions that influence harmful algal blooms in the region. Four simulations were developed to include a 20-year hindcast simulation (1997-2016), a 31-year historical simulation (1975-2005), and two 30-year future climate model projections (2006-2035) for the representative carbon pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We evaluated the hindcast model skill by comparing the simulation outputs with measured observational data and calculated statistics such as the bias, and the root mean square error (RMSE). The observations consisted of satellite sea surface temperature and, CTD temperature and salinity profile data collected in Irish waters. The sea surface temperature RMSEs between the 20-year hindcast simulation and the satellite data were ca. 0.50°C. A minimum RMSE of ca. 0.20°C was recorded in December 2015. The basin-averaged bias (difference) and RMSE for near bottom temperature between the RCP 4.5 and the historical simulation was 0.14°C and 0.27°C respectively. The sea surface temperature anomaly pattern for the RCP 8.5 shows warming across the whole model domain. The sea surface salinity and near bottom salinity climate simulation anomaly maps indicate a general freshening on the southwest Irish shelf. A change of ca. 0.2 sea surface salinity and near bottom salinity was observed. The RCP 8.5 simulation shows the highest current velocities when compared to other simulations. The Irish coastal current pattern under the RCP 8.5 scenario appears very intense and well defined with a velocity > 20 [cm/s].

Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part I: Description and validation of an operational forecasting model.

A 3D primitive equation coastal ocean model for southwest Ireland, called the Bantry Bay model, was developed and implemented operationally. Validated model outputs have multiple uses. One of the incentives to develop the model was to explore the possible transport pathways that carry harmful algae blooms (HAB) into Bantry Bay. The model is nested offline in a regional North East Atlantic operational model. Surface forcing is taken from the half-degree Global Forecasting System, available at three-hourly intervals. Heat fluxes are calculated from the bulk formulae. Surface freshwater fluxes are obtained from the prescribed rainfall rates and the evaporation rates calculated by the model. Freshwater discharges from five rivers are included in the model. Model validation and the model skill in representing the water level, currents, temperature and salinity in the bay are reported. A scoring system based on the average adjusted relative mean absolute error for the predicted currents was used. An upgrade to a higher score was achieved through the incorporation of local winds into the surface forcing and by varying the bottom roughness coefficient. The model, designed to work in forecast mode, can replicate the main oceanographic features in the region. The model forecast is used in a decision support system for HAB alerts. An operational HAB alert system did not exist in Ireland prior to the use of this model.

Harmful algal bloom forecast system for SW Ireland. Part II: Are operational oceanographic models useful in a HAB warning system.

This study investigated the application of a three-dimensional physical hydrodynamic model in a harmful algal bloom forecast system for Bantry Bay, southwest Ireland. Modelled oceanographic conditions were studied and used to help understand observed changes in the chemical and biological patterns from the national biotoxins and phytoplankton monitoring program. The study focused on two toxic events in 2013. An upwelling event was predicted by the model prior to the appearance and population increase of potentially toxic diatoms, Pseudo-nitzschia, and associated domoic acid in shellfish. A downwelling episode was provided as a forecast in the model prior to the arrival of a Dinophysis bloom and detection of its associated biotoxins in Bay shellfish. The modelled forecast products developed included expected surface, mid-depth and bottom current pathways at the mouth of the Bay and on the adjacent shelf. The rate and direction of water volume flow at the mouth and mid-bay sections were produced by the model to examine predicted upwelling and downwelling pulses. The model also calculated the evolution of water properties (temperature, salinity and density) with depth along the Bay axis and on the adjacent continental shelf. Direct measurements of water properties at a fixed point, mid-bay, were comparable to model calculations. The operational model for southwest Ireland produces a reliable 3-day physical hydrodynamic forecast of the dominant regional physical processes that result in water exchange events between Bantry Bay and its adjacent shelf. While simulated physical hydrodynamics were provided as a 3-day forecast, the upwelling and downwelling signals from the model, closely linked to toxic HAB episodes, were evident up to 10 days prior to the contamination of shellfish in the Bay.

High-dose-rate brachytherapy as a monotherapy for prostate cancer--Single-institution results of the extreme fractionation regimen.

PURPOSE: We report a single-institution retrospective analysis of the outcomes, disease control, and toxicity of high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy used as the only treatment modality (monotherapy) for localized prostate cancer. METHODS: Between 2006 and 2012, 77 patients with diagnosed prostate cancer were treated with HDR brachytherapy as a monotherapy. The prescribed dose was 45 Gy in three separate implants 21 days apart, with single fraction per implant. Of the 77 patients, 67 (87%) received hormonal therapy. Prostate-specific antigen failure was defined according to Phoenix consensus, as nadir + 2 ng/mL. Toxicity was scored according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.03. RESULTS: The median followup time was 57 months (4.75 years). The 5-year actuarial overall survival was 98.7%, biochemical control 96.7%, local control 96.9%, and metastasis-free survival 98.4%. Younger age at the beginning of brachytherapy predicted the onset of bounce phenomenon. There were no Grade 3 or higher acute toxicities detected, and Grade 2 genitourinary acute toxicity developed in 19 patients (24.6%). There were no Grade 2 gastrointestinal complications. No Grade 4 or 5 late toxicity was detected. There were also no Grade 3 gastrointestinal toxicities detected. One patient (1.3%) underwent transurethral resection of the prostate because of Grade 3 urethral stenosis and urinary retention. A total of 26 patients (33.8%) developed Grade 2 late toxicity. CONCLUSIONS: HDR brachytherapy as monotherapy for localized prostate cancer was feasible, effective, and had acceptable toxicity profile.

Salvage brachytherapy in combination with interstitial hyperthermia for locally recurrent prostate carcinoma following external beam radiation therapy: a prospective phase II study.

Optimal treatment for patients with only local prostate cancer recurrence after external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) failure remains unclear. Possible curative treatments are radical prostatectomy, cryosurgery, and brachytherapy. Several single institution series proved that high-dose-rate brachytherapy (HDRBT) and pulsed-dose-rate brachytherapy (PDRBT) are reasonable options for this group of patients with acceptable levels of genitourinary and gastrointestinal toxicity. A standard dose prescription and scheme have not been established yet, and the literature presents a wide range of fractionation protocols. Furthermore, hyperthermia has shown the potential to enhance the efficacy of re-irradiation. Consequently, a prospective trial is urgently needed to attain clear structured prospective data regarding the efficacy of salvage brachytherapy with adjuvant hyperthermia for locally recurrent prostate cancer. The purpose of this report is to introduce a new prospective phase II trial that would meet this need. The primary aim of this prospective phase II study combining Iridium-192 brachytherapy with interstitial hyperthermia (IHT) is to analyze toxicity of the combined treatment; a secondary aim is to define the efficacy (bNED, DFS, OS) of salvage brachytherapy. The dose prescribed to PTV will be 30 Gy in 3 fractions for HDRBT, and 60 Gy in 2 fractions for PDRBT. During IHT, the prostate will be heated to the range of 40-47°C for 60 minutes prior to brachytherapy dose delivery. The protocol plans for treatment of 77 patients.

Palliative thoracic radiotherapy for patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer and poor performance status.

OBJECTIVE: The evaluation of efficacy of palliative thoracic radiotherapy (PTR) in patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to compare it with efficacy of supportive care (SC) alone. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between 2000 and 2012, 235 patients with advanced NSCLC (IIIB and IV) and Karnofsky Performance Status accounted 40-30, were qualified to PTR. In fact, 125 (53.2%) out of them were treated with PTR, and 110 (46.8%)-with SC alone, in accordance with patients expectations. There were no differences between PTR and SC group with respect to patient and tumor characteristics as well as with respect to the type and incidence of symptoms related to the local growth of NSCLC. In all 125 PTR patients the delivered tumor dose was 20Gy given in five daily fractions over five treatment days. All 110 patients who refused PTR were treated with SC in another hospital (28.2%), in a hospice (21.8%) or by general practitioners at home (50.0%). RESULTS: The 90-day overall survival rate in the group of PTR patients was 20.0%, and in the group of SC patients it was 18.2%. Median survival amounted 58 and 59 days, respectively. The efficacy of PTR and SC, relative to the symptoms associated with the local growth of NSCLC, was comparable. Tolerance of PTR was poor and early toxicity-significant. Moreover 41.6% of irradiated patients received PTR within the last 30 days of their lives and 16.0% of these patients-within the last 15 days prior to death. CONCLUSION: The life expectancy of patients with advanced NSCLC and poor performance status (Karnofsky 40-30), who presenting moderate or severe symptoms related to the local growth of cancer, is measured in days or weeks. The effective method of treatment for these patients is modern supportive care rather than PTR.

[The effectiveness of postoperative external beam radiotherapy for incompletely resected non-small cell lung cancer]. / Ocena skutecznosci pooperacyjnej teleradioterapii chorych na niedrobnokomórkowego raka pluca po niedoszczetnym zabiegu operacyjnym.

In a retrospective analysis of 150 incompletely resected NSCLC patients treated with adjuvant external beam radiotherapy 32 (21.3%) survived 3 years with no symptoms of disease. Ipsilateral mediastinal/hilar lymph node involvement and macroscopic incomplete surgery were the prognostic factors that unfavourably influenced survival in Cox's proportional hazards model. Postoperative external beam radiotherapy was the efficient adjuvant treatment method in microscopically incompletely resected NSCLC, predominantly with no nodes involvement, but had no benefit in those with macroscopic incomplete surgery.

[The efficacy of adjuvant thoracic radiation therapy in NSCLC patients with ipsilateral mediastinal/hilar lymph nodes involvement (clinical trial)]. / Ocena skutecznosci pooperacyjnej teleradioterapii chorych na NDRP zoperowanych miejscowo doszczetnie z obecnoscia przerzutów w usunietych wezlach chlonnych sródpiersia albo wneki (kontrolowane doswiadczenie kliniczne).

Between 1992 and 1999 at the Oncology Centre in Cracow 138 NSCLC patients after complete resection of the tumour with mediastinal/hilar node involvement were included in the prospective clinical trial. The analysis of the results did not show any improvement of survival in the postoperatively irradiated group. Three-year survival rates with no symptoms of disease in postoperative radiotherapy patients compared to surgery alone group were 30% and 29% respectively. In this study adjuvant radiotherapy significantly improved local recurrence rate from 28% in surgery only group to 9% in postoperatively treated patients.

The oil spill model OILTRANS and its application to the Celtic Sea.

This paper describes details of an oil spill model, OILTRANS, developed by the authors. The model is an off-line particle-transport model coupled to the most up to date operational met-ocean model forecasts. Formulations for the dominant oil fate processes of spreading, advection, diffusion, evaporation, emulsification and dispersion have been encoded, providing the model with the ability to accurately predict the horizontal movement of surface oil slick, the vertical entrainment of oil into the water column and the mass balance of spilled oil. The application of the OILTRANS model to an accidental release during a ship-to-ship fuel transfer in the Celtic Sea in February 2009 is presented to validate the system. Comparisons with aerial observations of the oil slick at the time of the incident, and subsequent model simulations, indicate that the OILTRANS model is capable of accurately predicting the transport and fate of the oil slick.

Assessment of Tc-99 monitoring within the western Irish Sea using a numerical model.

Water circulation patterns and associated material transport within a highly dynamic system such as the Irish Sea are complex phenomena. Although Tc-99 monitoring programme undertaken by the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland provides a good insight to the material distribution on the east coast of Ireland, transport patterns within the Irish Sea have not been fully explored. In this study a validated transport model was used to hindcast transport of Tc-99 discharged from the Sellafield plant to determine extents of Tc-99 migration within the Irish Sea and reassess transit times to east coast of Ireland. Transit times are also estimated within a context of changes in meteorological conditions and fluctuations in discharges. Additionally, seasonal and inter-annual circulation patterns were examined. Relationships between discharge times and timing of far field concentrations are highly variable and are dependent on sea dynamics controlling the accumulation and removal of Tc-99 mass. Transport towards the Irish east coast, and consequently transit times, vary intra- and inter-annually, and depend on the prevailing hydrodynamic conditions resulting from meteorological conditions. The transit times from Sellafield to Balbriggan fall within the wide range of 30-240 days; with summer releases resulting in the shortest transit times. The model also indicated a strong relationship between summer concentration peaks on the east coast of Ireland and the strength of the Western Irish Gyre. Sudden increases of Tc-99 concentrations at Balbriggan coincide with peak of sea surface temperatures when the gyre is strongest and when advection is fastest. The adequacy of the current radionuclide monitoring programme within the western Irish Sea is evaluated, and recommendations are made for the development of a more optimised monitoring programme.

Effects of complex hydrodynamic processes on the horizontal and vertical distribution of Tc-99 in the Irish Sea.

The increased discharge of Tc-99 from the Sellafield plant following the commissioning of the Enhance Actinide Removal Plant in 1994 was reflected in higher Tc-99 activity concentrations over much of the Irish Sea. The presence of this radionuclide in the marine environment is of concern not only because of its long half life but also high bio-concentration factor in commercially valuable species, such Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) and common lobster (Homarus gammarus). Accurate predictions of the transport, and spatial and temporal distributions of Tc-99 in the Irish Sea have important environmental and commercial implications. In this study, transport of the Tc-99 material was simulated in order to develop an increased understanding of long-term horizontal and vertical distributions. In particular, impact of seasonal hydrodynamic features such as the summer stratification on the surface-to-bottom Tc-99 ratio was of interest. Also, material retention mechanisms within the western Irish Sea were explored and flushing rates under various release conditions and meteorological forcing were estimated. The results show that highest vertical gradients are observed between June and July in the deepest regions of the North Channel and the western Irish Sea where radionuclide-rich saline-poor water overlays radionuclide-poor saline-rich Atlantic water masses. Strong correlation between top-to-bottom ratio of Tc-99 and strength of stratification was found. Flushing studies demonstrate that as the stratification intensifies, residence times within the western Irish Sea increase. In stratified waters of the gyre Tc-99 material is flushed out from the upper layer much quicker than from the bottom zone. The research also shows that in the gyre the biologically active upper layers above the thermocline are likely to contain higher concentrations than the near-bed region. Long-term horizontal and vertical distributions as determined in this study provide a basis for assessment of a potential biota exposure to Tc-99.

Use of numerical models for determination of best sampling locations for monitoring of large lakes.

The implementation of the European Union Water Framework Directive (WFD) that requires all surface waters to achieve at least good status by year 2015 presents a challenge to local authorities responsible for the monitoring programmes. Obtaining a single representative value for each water quality parameter may be extremely difficult to achieve in the case of large lakes, which may be characterised by significant spatial and temporal variation of water quality parameters. The aim of this paper is to present a methodology, which can support the decision making as to the best locations for water quality sampling when developing monitoring systems of large lakes. The methodology is based on three-dimensional hydrodynamic and a conservative tracer transport numerical modelling and utilises the concept of flushing and residence time. The 3D numerical model of Lough Corrib located in the west of Ireland was created and used to calculate its residence time and flushing pathways. Based on the results it was possible to identify the areas in the lake that are characterised by the local residence time values close to the lake's average as well as by the values significantly lower and higher. Three water classes have been introduced and the authors recommend that sampling takes place in all three classes at various frequencies. Spatial distribution of the flushing pathways allows identifying the areas in the lake that best represent the lake's average conditions both in the long term and seasonally, where monitoring can be carried out at the required frequency; worst affected areas can also be identified. The methodology can be used to improve robustness of the monitoring programme and may also contribute towards the reduction of both sampling and analytical costs, both at the design and operational stages.

Investigations into the transport and pathways of scallop larvae--the use of numerical models for managing fish stocks.

The scallop fisheries off the southeast coast of Ireland have historically been considered a valuable resource for coastal communities, and hence their management is important. The scallop fishing grounds consist of a number of scallop beds dispersed throughout the St George's Channel and the southern Irish Sea. The boundaries between stocks and the interconnection in populations of adult scallops, through larval transport, is generally unknown. Until the time of this research, the stocks of scallop in this region had not been assessed. A research project was undertaken to develop novel, spatially explicit and multi-disciplinary approaches to the assessment of the scallop fisheries in the region. The project supported research in three related areas under the broad objective of developing stock assessment protocols and methods in order to promote sustainable management of these fisheries. One of these areas was the development and application of numerical models. The objectives of this modelling research were: (a) to reconstruct the physical environment of the study area; (b) investigate how this environment affects the demographics and nature of scallop; and (c) determine migration-transport pathways of the scallop larvae. From these investigations, light is shed on how the spatial variability in certain parameters of the natural environment determine habitats and the scallop populations. Also, the investigations now enable determinations to be made on the interconnectivities of 'disparate' scallop beds and where larvae are, in general, likely to be found. Thus, through the use of complex computer models, important clues are deduced that enable us to now understand key behavioural components of scallop larvae and their transport pathways. The analysis of these clues is assisting the development of protocols for managing the fish stock in a sustainable manner.