Cost-Effectiveness of a Government Policy to Incentivise Chronic Disease Management following Stroke: A Modelling Study.

INTRODUCTION: Little is known about the cost-effectiveness of government policies that support primary care physicians to provide comprehensive chronic disease management (CDM). This paper aimed to estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of CDM policies over a lifetime for long-time survivors of stroke. METHODS: A Markov model, using three health states (stable, hospitalised, dead), was developed to simulate the costs and benefits of CDM policies over 30 years (with 1-year cycles). Transition probabilities and costs from a health system perspective were obtained from the linkage of data between the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (cohort n = 12,368, 42% female, median age 70 years, 45% had CDM claims) and government-held hospital, Medicare, and pharmaceutical claims datasets. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were obtained from a comparable cohort (n = 512, 34% female, median age 69.6 years, 52% had CDM claims) linked with Medicare claims and death data. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs in Australian dollars (AUD, 2016) and QALYs beyond 12 months. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to understand uncertainty. RESULTS: Per-person average total lifetime costs were AUD 142,939 and 8.97 QALYs for those with a claim, and AUD 103,889 and 8.98 QALYs for those without a claim. This indicates that these CDM policies were costlier without improving QALYs. The probability of cost-effectiveness of CDM policies was 26.1%, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000/QALY. CONCLUSION: CDM policies, designed to encourage comprehensive care, are unlikely to be cost-effective for stroke compared to care without CDM. Further research to understand how to deliver such care cost-effectively is needed.

Risk Factors Associated with Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events after Ischemic Stroke: A Linked Registry Study.

INTRODUCTION: Survivors of stroke are at risk of experiencing subsequent major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). We aimed to determine the incidence of, and risk factors for, MACE after first-ever ischemic stroke, by age group (18-64 years vs. ≥65 years). METHODS: Observational cohort study using patient-level data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (2009-2013), linked with hospital administrative data. We included adults with first-ever ischemic stroke who had no previous acute cardiovascular admissions and followed these patients for 2 years post-discharge, or until the first post-stroke MACE event. A Fine-Gray sub-distribution hazard model, accounting for the competing risk of non-cardiovascular death, was used to determine factors for incident post-stroke MACE. RESULTS: Among 5,994 patients with a first-ever ischemic stroke (median age 73 years, 45% female), 17% were admitted for MACE within 2 years (129 events per 1,000 person-years). The median time to first post-stroke MACE was 117 days (89 days if aged <65 years vs. 126 days if aged ≥65 years; p = 0.025). Among patients aged 18-64 years, receiving intravenous thrombolysis (sub-distribution hazard ratio [SHR] 0.51 [95% CI, 0.28-0.92]) or being discharged to inpatient rehabilitation (SHR 0.65 [95% CI, 0.46-0.92]) were associated with a reduced incidence of post-stroke MACE. In those aged ≥65 years, being unable to walk on admission (SHR 1.33 [95% CI 1.15-1.54]), and history of smoking (SHR 1.40 [95% CI 1.14-1.71]) or atrial fibrillation (SHR 1.31 [95% CI 1.14-1.51]) were associated with an increased incidence of post-stroke MACE. Acute management in a large hospital (>300 beds) for the initial stroke event was associated with reduced incidence of post-stroke MACE, irrespective of age group. CONCLUSIONS: MACE is common within 2 years of stroke, with most events occurring within the first year. We have identified important factors to consider when designing interventions to prevent MACE after stroke, particularly among those aged <65 years.

Access to inpatient mood management services after stroke in Australian acute and rehabilitation hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: Post-stroke mental health impairments are common, but under-assessed and under-treated. We aim to describe trends in the provision of mood management to patients with stroke, and describe factors associated with adoption of national mood management recommendations for stroke within Australian hospitals. DESIGN: Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data from the biennial Stroke Foundation Audit Program. SETTING: Participating acute (2011-2021) and rehabilitation hospitals (2012-2020) in Australia. PARTICIPANTS: In the acute audit, 22,937 stroke cases were included from 133 hospitals. In the rehabilitation audit, 15,891 stroke cases were included from 127 hospitals. MAIN MEASURES: Hospital- and patient-level mood management processes. RESULTS: Among 133 acute hospitals (22,937 stroke episodes), improvements were made between 2011 and 2021 in utilization of mood screening (17% [2011], 33% [2021]; p < 0.001) and access to psychologists during hospital stay (18% [2011], 45% [2021]; p < 0.001). There was no change in access to a psychologist among those with a mood impairment (p = 0.34). Among 127 rehabilitation hospitals (15,891 stroke episodes) improvements were observed for mood screening (35% [2012], 61% [2020]; p < 0.001), and access to a psychologist during hospital stay (38% [2012], 68% [2020]; p < 0.001) and among those with a mood-impairment (30% [2012], 50% [2020]; p < 0.001). Factors associated with receiving mood management processes included: younger age, not requiring an interpreter and longer length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to mood management recommendations has improved over 10 years within Australian hospitals. Those aged over 65, requiring an interpreter, or with shorter hospital stays are at risk of missing out on appropriate mood management.

Factors Associated with Receiving a Discharge Care Plan After Stroke in Australia: A Linked Registry Study.

Background: Discharge planning is recommended to optimise the transition from acute care to home for patients admitted with stroke. Despite this guideline recommendation, many patients do not receive a discharge care plan. Also, there is limited evidence on factors influencing the provision of discharge care plan post-stroke. We evaluated patient, clinical and system factors associated with receiving a care plan on discharge from hospital back to the community after stroke. Methods: This was an observational cohort study of patients with acute stroke who were discharged to the community between 2009-2013, using data from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry linked to hospital administrative data. For this analysis, we used merged dataset containing information on patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and receipt of acute care processes. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine factors associated with receiving a discharge care plan. Results: Among 7812 eligible patients (39 hospitals, median age 73 years, 44.7% female, 56.9% ischaemic stroke), 47% received a care plan at discharge. The odds of receiving a discharge care plan increased over time (odds ratio [OR] 1.39 per year, 95% CI 1.37-1.48), and varied between hospitals. Factors associated with receiving a discharge care plan included greater socioeconomic position (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38), diagnosis of ischaemic stroke (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.05-1.33), greater stroke severity (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31), or being discharged on antihypertensive medication (OR 3.07, 95% CI 2.69-3.50). In contrast, factors associated with a reduced odds of receiving a discharge care plan included being aged 85+ years (vs < 85 years; OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64-0.96), discharged on a weekend (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.46-0.67), discharged to residential aged care (OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.39-0.60), or being treated in a large hospital ( > 300 beds; OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.10-0.92). Conclusions: Implementing practices to target people who are older, discharged to residential aged care, or discharged on a weekend may improve discharge planning and post-discharge care after stroke.