Northward Range Expansion of Water Deer in Northeast Asia: Direct Evidence and Management Implications.

Given current anthropogenic pressures and climate change, wildlife range expansion offers a second chance for species conservation. The water deer Hydropotes inermis is a native to China and the Korean peninsula, but populations in North Korea and mainland China have declined drastically in recent years. However, the range of this species appears to be rapidly expanding northward. In this study, we employed camera traps and molecular technology to assess the status, phylogeny, and genetic ancestry of the newly recorded population. Our results showed an ongoing northward expansion of water deer, reaching at least 500 km from their historical distribution limit. We provided updated information on this species' geographical distribution in Northeast China and the Russian Far East. Based on historical survey data before the 1990s, there had previously been no record of this species in these two regions; thus, this could be a genuine range expansion rather than simply an expansion of the known range. A genetic investigation based on mitochondrial DNA indicated that the expanding population had a close phylogenetic affinity with Korean water deer. The likely migration route and causes of the species' distribution range expansion are discussed. We recommend revising the range of water deer in the IUCN Red List to facilitate the effective conservation and management of this threatened species, especially in new locations.

Efficient and cost-effective non-invasive population monitoring as a method to assess the genetic diversity of the last remaining population of Amur leopard (Panthera pardus orientalis) in the Russia Far East.

Small populations of the endangered species are more vulnerable to extinction and hence require periodic genetic monitoring to establish and revisit the conservation strategies. The Amur leopard is critically endangered with about 100 individuals in the wild. In this study, we developed a simple and cost-effective noninvasive genetic monitoring protocol for Amur leopards. Also, we investigated the impact of fecal sample's age, storage, and collection season on microsatellite genotyping success and data quality. We identified 89 leopard scats out of the 342 fecal samples collected from Land of the Leopard between 2014-2019. Microsatellite genotyping using 12 markers optimized in 3 multiplex PCR reactions reveals presence of at least 24 leopard individuals (18 males and 6 females). There was a significant difference in the success rate of genotyping depending on the time from feces deposition to collection (p = 0.014, Fisher's exact test), with better genotyping success for samples having <2 weeks of environmental exposure. Amur leopard genetic diversity was found low (Ho- 0.33, HE- 0.35, and NA- 2.57) with no visible population substructure and recent bottleneck signature. Although a historical bottleneck footprint was observed. Mitochondrial DNA diversity was also found low with two haplotypes differing by a point mutation reported in 1,769 bp of investigated sequence covering parts of cytochrome b gene (846 bp), NADH-5 gene (611 bp) and control region (312 bp). We recommend periodic genetic monitoring of wild Amur leopards following the proposed methodology to achieve cost effectiveness and efficiency.

Prediction of range expansion and estimation of dispersal routes of water deer (Hydropotes inermis) in the transboundary region between China, the Russian Far East and the Korean Peninsula.

Global changes may direct species expansion away from their current range. When such an expansion occurs, and the species colonizes a new region, it is important to monitor the habitat used by the species and utilize the information to updated management strategies. Water deer (Hydropotes inermis) is listed as Vulnerable species in IUCN Red List and is restricted to east central China and the Korean Peninsula. Since 2017, water deer has expanded its range towards northeast China and the Russian Far East. The objective of our study is to provide support for a better understanding of habitat use and provide suggestions for developing conservation strategy. We collected occurrence data in northeast China and the Russian Far East during 2017-2021. We used MaxEnt to predict habitat suitability for water deer and applied Circuitscape to determine possible dispersal routes for the species. We used seven environmental variables, viz., altitude, slope, aspect, distance to built-up area, distance to water source, distance to cropland and distance to roads for habitat suitability prediction. We chose the MaxEnt model (AICc = 2572.86) suitable for our data with the AUC value result of 0.935±0.014. There is good quality habitat for water deer in the boundary area of the Yalu and Tumen River estuaries between China, North Korea, and the Russian Far East, as well as the east and west regions of the Korean Peninsula. We identified three main suitable habitat patches, two of them located in east (NK2) and west (NK3) North Korea, and one in the newly colonized area downstream of the Tumen River along the border of China, Russia, and North Korea (TM1). Elevation, distance to cropland and water sources, and presence of wetlands were the variables that positively contributed to modelling the suitable habitats. Two possible dispersal routes were determined using the circuit theory, one was across the area from North Korea to the downstream Tumen transboundary region (Route B), and the other was across North Korea to the boundary region in China and along the tiger national park in northern China (Route A). A series of protected areas in North Korea, China, and Russia may support the dispersal of water deer. From the study on water deer dispersal, we can understand the existing ecological network in northeast Asia, which will benefit the whole landscape and biodiversity conservation. However, there are many threats present, and there is need for continued monitoring inside and outside the protected areas. Information sharing with stakeholders and carrying out local communities awareness activities are important. The establishment of a Northeast Asia landscape conservation network would help establish monitoring and conservation planning at a broad scale, and this study provides an example of the need for such a network.

Recovery planning towards doubling wild tiger Panthera tigris numbers: Detailing 18 recovery sites from across the range.

With less than 3200 wild tigers in 2010, the heads of 13 tiger-range countries committed to doubling the global population of wild tigers by 2022. This goal represents the highest level of ambition and commitment required to turn the tide for tigers in the wild. Yet, ensuring efficient and targeted implementation of conservation actions alongside systematic monitoring of progress towards this goal requires that we set site-specific recovery targets and timelines that are ecologically realistic. In this study, we assess the recovery potential of 18 sites identified under WWF's Tigers Alive Initiative. We delineated recovery systems comprising a source, recovery site, and support region, which need to be managed synergistically to meet these targets. By using the best available data on tiger and prey numbers, and adapting existing species recovery frameworks, we show that these sites, which currently support 165 (118-277) tigers, have the potential to harbour 585 (454-739) individuals. This would constitute a 15% increase in the global population and represent over a three-fold increase within these specific sites, on an average. However, it may not be realistic to achieve this target by 2022, since tiger recovery in 15 of these 18 sites is contingent on the initial recovery of prey populations, which is a slow process. We conclude that while sustained conservation efforts can yield significant recoveries, it is critical that we commit our resources to achieving the biologically realistic targets for these sites even if the timelines are extended.

New hope for the survival of the Amur leopard in China.

Natural range loss limits the population growth of Asian big cats and may determine their survival. Over the past decade, we collected occurrence data of the critically endangered Amur leopard worldwide and developed a distribution model of the leopard's historical range in northeastern China over the past decade. We were interested to explore how much current range area exists, learn what factors limit their spatial distribution, determine the population size and estimate the extent of potential habitat. Our results identify 48,252 km(2) of current range and 21,173.7 km(2) of suitable habitat patches and these patches may support 195.1 individuals. We found that prey presence drives leopard distribution, that leopard density exhibits a negative response to tiger occurrence and that the largest habitat patch connects with 5,200 km(2)of Russian current range. These insights provide a deeper understanding of the means by which endangered predators might be saved and survival prospects for the Amur leopard not only in China, but also through imperative conservation cooperation internationally.