Higher chronic absenteeism threatens academic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The broad and substantial educational harm caused by the COVID-19 pandemic has motivated large federal, state, and local investments in academic recovery. However, the success of these efforts depends in part on students' regular school attendance. Using state-level data, I show that the rate of chronic absenteeism among US public-school students grew substantially as students returned to in-person instruction. Specifically, between the 2018-2019 and 2021-2022 school years, the share of students chronically absent grew by 13.5 percentage points-a 91-percent increase that implies an additional 6.5 million students are now chronically absent. State-level increases in chronic absenteeism are positively associated with the prevalence of school closures during the 2020-2021 school year. However, these increases do not appear to be associated with enrollment loss, COVID-19 case rates, school masking policies, or declines in youth mental health. This evidence indicates that the barriers to learning implied by the sharp increase in chronic absenteeism merit further scrutiny and policy responses.

Ethnic studies increases longer-run academic engagement and attainment.

Increased interest in anti-racist education has motivated the rapidly growing but politically contentious adoption of ethnic studies (ES) courses in US public schools. A long-standing rationale for ES courses is that their emphasis on culturally relevant and critically engaged content (e.g., social justice, anti-racism, stereotypes, contemporary social movements) has potent effects on student engagement and outcomes. However, the quantitative evidence supporting this claim is limited. In this preregistered regression-discontinuity study, we examine the longer-run impact of a grade 9 ES course offered in the San Francisco Unified School District. Our key confirmatory finding is that assignment to this course significantly increased the probability of high school graduation among students near the grade 8 2.0 grade point average (GPA) threshold used for assigning students to the course. Our exploratory analyses also indicate that assignment increased measures of engagement throughout high school (e.g., attendance) as well as the probability of postsecondary matriculation.

The gift of time? School starting age and mental health.

Using linked Danish survey and register data, we estimate the causal effect of age at kindergarten entry on mental health. Danish children are supposed to enter kindergarten in the calendar year in which they turn 6 years. In a "fuzzy" regression-discontinuity design based on this rule and exact dates of birth, we find that a 1-year delay in kindergarten entry dramatically reduces inattention/hyperactivity at age 7 (effect size = -0.73), a measure of self-regulation with strong negative links to student achievement. The effect is primarily identified for girls but persists at age 11.

A community response approach to mental health and substance abuse crises reduced crime.

Police officers often serve as first responders to mental health and substance abuse crises. Concerns over the unintended consequences and high costs associated with this approach have motivated emergency response models that augment or completely remove police involvement. However, there is little causal evidence evaluating these programs. This preregistered study presents quasi-experimental evidence on the impact of an innovative "community response" pilot in Denver that directed targeted emergency calls to health care responders instead of the police. We find robust evidence that the program reduced reports of targeted, less serious crimes (e.g., trespassing, public disorder, and resisting arrest) by 34% and had no detectable effect on more serious crimes. The sharp reduction in targeted crimes reflects the fact that health-focused first responders are less likely to report individuals they serve as criminal offenders and the spillover benefits of the program (e.g., reducing crime during hours when the program was not in operation).

Motorcycle helmets and traffic safety.

Between 1997 and 2005, the number of annual motorcyclist fatalities doubled. Motorcyclist fatalities now account for over 10 percent of all traffic-related fatalities. However, over the last three decades, states have generally been eliminating laws that require helmet use among all motorcyclists. This study examines the effectiveness of helmet use and state laws that mandate helmet use in reducing motorcyclist fatalities. Within-vehicle comparisons among two-rider motorcycles indicate that helmet use reduces fatality risk by 34 percent. State laws requiring helmet use appear to reduce motorcyclist fatalities by 27 percent. Fatality reductions of this magnitude suggest that the health benefits of helmet-use laws are not meaningfully compromised by compensating increases in risk-taking by motorcyclists.

The strength of graduated drivers license programs and fatalities among teen drivers and passengers.

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of differentially stringent graduated drivers license programs on teen driver fatalities, day-time and night-time teen driver fatalities, fatalities of teen drivers with passengers present, and fatalities among teen passengers. METHODS: The study uses 1992-2002 data on motor vehicle fatalities among 15-17-year-old drivers from the Fatality Analysis Reporting System to identify the effects of "good", "fair", and "marginal" GDL programs based upon designations by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. Analysis is conducted using conditional negative binomial regressions with fixed effects. RESULTS: "Good" programs reduce total fatalities among young drivers by 19.4% (c.i. -33.0%, -5.9%). "Fair" programs reduce night-time young driver fatalities by 12.6% (c.i. -23.9%, -1.2%), but have no effect on day-time fatalities. "Marginal" programs had no statistically meaningful effect on driver fatalities. All three types of programs reduced teen passenger fatalities, but the effects of limitations on the number of passengers appear to have had only minimal effects in reducing fatalities among young drivers themselves. CONCLUSIONS: Stronger GDL programs are more effective than weaker programs in reducing teenage motor vehicle fatalities.

Graduated driver licensing and teen traffic fatalities.

Over the last 8 years, nearly every state has introduced graduated driver licensing (GDL) for teens. These new licensing procedures require teen drivers to advance through distinct stages where they are subject to a variety of restrictions (e.g., adult supervision, daytime driving, passenger limits). In this study, we present evidence on whether these restrictions have been effective in reducing traffic fatalities among teens. These evaluations are based on state-by-year panel data from 1992 to 2002. We assess the reliability of our basic inferences in several ways including an examination of contemporaneous data for older cohorts who were not directly affected by these policies. Our results indicate that GDL regulations reduced traffic fatalities among 15-17-year-olds by at least 5.6%. We also find that the life-saving benefits of these regulations were plausibly related to their restrictiveness. And we find no evidence that these benefits were attenuated by an increase in fatality risks during the full-licensure period available to older teens.

Do parental involvement laws deter risky teen sex?

Parental involvement (PI) laws require that physicians notify or obtain consent from a parent(s) of a minor seeking an abortion before performing the procedure. Several studies suggest that PI laws curb risky sexual behavior because teens realize that they would be compelled to discuss a subsequent pregnancy with a parent. We show that prior evidence based on gonorrhea rates overlooked the frequent under-reporting of gonorrhea by race and ethnicity, and present new evidence on the effects of PI laws using more current data on the prevalence of gonorrhea and data that are novel to this literature (i.e., chlamydia rates and data disaggregated by year of age). We improve the credibility of our estimates over those in the existing literature using an event-study design in addition to standard difference-in-difference-in-differences (DDD) models. Our findings consistently suggest no association between PI laws and rates of sexually transmitted infections or measures of sexual behavior.

AIDS mortality may have contributed to the decline in syphilis rates in the United States in the 1990s.

BACKGROUND: The mortality associated with AIDS among men may have had an influence on primary and secondary syphilis trends among men in the United States, through the loss of men at high risk for acquisition or transmission of syphilis in this population and/or by prompting safer sexual behaviors in response to the threat of AIDS. GOAL: The goal of this study was to examine the association between AIDS mortality rates and primary and secondary syphilis incidence rates among men in the United States from 1984 to 1997. STUDY DESIGN: We used a fixed-effects regression analysis of state-level AIDS mortality rates and primary and secondary syphilis incidence rates for men. RESULTS: Our analysis showed a significant association between higher AIDS mortality and lower rates of syphilis incidence, after we controlled for confounding factors. Our model estimates suggested that every 20 AIDS deaths per 100,000 adult men are associated with declines of about 7% to 12% in syphilis incidence rates among men. CONCLUSION: Increases in AIDS-associated mortality may have accounted for one-third to one-half of the decline in syphilis rates among men in the early 1990s. Recent declines in AIDS mortality in the United States may have contributed to the recent outbreaks of syphilis, particularly among men who have sex with men. Our findings underscore the importance of providing STD prevention services to men with HIV infection and the need for STD surveillance in communities at risk for syphilis outbreaks.