RESUMEN
In this paper, we introduce a deterministic malaria model for determining the drug administration protocol that leads to the smallest first malaria episodes during the wet season. To explore the effects of administering the malaria drug on different days during the wet season while minimizing the potential harmful effects of drug overdose, we define 40 drug administration protocols. Our results fit well with the clinical studies of Coulibaly et al. at a site in Mali. In addition, we provide protocols that lead to smaller number of first malaria episodes during the wet season than the protocol of Coulibaly et al.
Asunto(s)
Antimaláricos/administración & dosificación , Vacunas contra la Malaria/administración & dosificación , Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/prevención & control , Modelos Inmunológicos , Plasmodium/inmunología , Pirimetamina/administración & dosificación , Sulfadoxina/administración & dosificación , Animales , Combinación de Medicamentos , Humanos , Malaria/inmunología , Malí/epidemiología , Estaciones del AñoRESUMEN
We extend the mathematical malaria epidemic model framework of Dembele et al. and use it to ``capture" the 2013 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported data on the 2011 number of imported malaria cases in the USA. Furthermore, we use our ``fitted" malaria models for the top 20 countries of malaria acquisition by USA residents to study the impact of protecting USA residents from malaria infection when they travel to malaria endemic areas, the impact of protecting residents of malaria endemic regions from mosquito bites and the impact of killing mosquitoes in those endemic areas on the CDC number of imported malaria cases in USA. To significantly reduce the number of imported malaria cases in USA, for each top 20 country of malaria acquisition by USA travelers, we compute the optimal proportion of USA international travelers that must be protected against malaria infection and the optimal proportion of mosquitoes that must be killed.
Asunto(s)
Malaria/epidemiología , Malaria/prevención & control , Modelos Biológicos , Viaje , Humanos , Control de Mosquitos/estadística & datos numéricos , Vigilancia de la Población , Viaje/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)<1 then the disease becomes extinct, whereas if R(0)>1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.