Clinician perceptions of research priorities for the management of noncritically ill patients admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

The changing phenotype of coronarvirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may quickly render guideline-recommended interventions obsolete. We developed a 40-question clinician survey in consultation with the Australasian COVID-19 Trial site investigators. The survey was designed to assess clinician perceptions of the current treatment strategies and future research priorities in the management of non-critically ill patients admitted to hospital with SARS-CoV-2 infection. There were 84 complete responses from predominantly Australian and New Zealand clinicians. The perceived prevalence of patients with incidental COVID-19, nosocomial infection, underlying illness exacerbated by COVID-19, and/or immunocompromised status suggests new populations to target. The results highlighted clinician interest in antiviral therapies for future research in both immunocompetent and immunocompromised cohorts. These survey results underscore the need for ongoing surveillance of COVID-19 disease phenotypes and clinician and patient priorities for future research.

The path to tuberculosis elimination: a renewed vision.

Tuberculosis (TB) elimination and pre-elimination, with thresholds of 1 and 10 incident cases per million population, respectively, were considered achievable for low TB incidence countries in the 1990s, when they were conceived. However, it has since become clear that, even in low TB incidence settings with effective programmes and sufficient resources, achieving pre-elimination in the next decade will require a dramatic acceleration of efforts. In this review, we describe the history of the TB elimination concept and existing country experiences, as well as the interventions available to accelerate the progress towards this threshold. We then propose a framework for near-term progress towards the more aspirational goal of TB pre-elimination. This framework consists of five stages (high incidence, moderate incidence, low incidence, nearing pre-elimination and pre-elimination) that are benchmarked to specific levels of TB incidence in each country. Using this framework, countries can set 5-year targets of achieving certain reductions in TB incidence and/or reaching the next stage, through the use of strategies tailored to both local epidemiology and available organisation and infrastructure. TB elimination remains as an aspirational goal in all stages, but certain activities can be prioritised in the short term to make more rapid progress, ensure local-level buy-in and increase accountability. As TB pre-elimination is approached, certain ethical and social concerns are likely to rise in importance; these concerns are also discussed. Our aim in setting this framework is to guide clinicians, public health experts and decision makers in taking actionable next steps in the trajectory towards TB pre-elimination and elimination.

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadians: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of tuberculosis infection is critical to the design of tuberculosis prevention strategies, yet is unknown in Canada. We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection among Canadian residents born abroad. METHODS: We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection by age and year of migration to Canada for people from each of 168 countries by constructing country-specific and calendar year-specific trends for annual risk of infection using a previously developed model. We combined country-specific prevalence estimates with Canadian Census data from 2001, 2006, 2011, 2016 and 2021 to estimate the overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadian residents. RESULTS: The estimated overall prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born people in Canada was 25% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 20%-35%) for census year 2001, 24% (95% UI 20%-33%) for 2006, 23% (95% UI 19%-30%) for 2011, 22% (95% UI 19%-28%) for 2016 and 22% (95% UI 19%-27%) for 2021. The prevalence increased with age at migration and incidence of tuberculosis in the country of origin. In 2021, the estimated prevalence of infection among foreign-born residents was lowest in Quebec (19%, 95% UI 16%-24%) and highest in Alberta (24%, 95% UI 21%-28%) and British Columbia (24%, 95% UI 20%-30%). Among all foreign-born Canadian residents with tuberculosis infection in 2021, we estimated that only 1 in 488 (95% UI 185-1039) had become infected within the 2 preceding years. INTERPRETATION: About 1 in 4 foreign-born Canadian residents has tuberculosis infection, but very few were infected within the 2 preceding years (the highest risk period for progression to tuberculosis disease). These data may inform future tuberculosis infection screening policies.

Estimating tuberculosis drug resistance amplification rates in high-burden settings.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance develops following the accrual of mutations in the bacterial genome, and may variably impact organism fitness and hence, transmission risk. Classical representation of tuberculosis (TB) dynamics using a single or two strain (DS/MDR-TB) model typically does not capture elements of this important aspect of TB epidemiology. To understand and estimate the likelihood of resistance spreading in high drug-resistant TB incidence settings, we used epidemiological data to develop a mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission. METHODS: A four-strain (drug-susceptible (DS), isoniazid mono-resistant (INH-R), rifampicin mono-resistant (RIF-R) and multidrug-resistant (MDR)) compartmental deterministic Mtb transmission model was developed to explore the progression from DS- to MDR-TB in The Philippines and Viet Nam. The models were calibrated using data from national tuberculosis prevalence (NTP) surveys and drug resistance surveys (DRS). An adaptive Metropolis algorithm was used to estimate the risks of drug resistance amplification among unsuccessfully treated individuals. RESULTS: The estimated proportion of INH-R amplification among failing treatments was 0.84 (95% CI 0.79-0.89) for The Philippines and 0.77 (95% CI 0.71-0.84) for Viet Nam. The proportion of RIF-R amplification among failing treatments was 0.05 (95% CI 0.04-0.07) for The Philippines and 0.011 (95% CI 0.010-0.012) for Viet Nam. CONCLUSION: The risk of resistance amplification due to treatment failure for INH was dramatically higher than RIF. We observed RIF-R strains were more likely to be transmitted than acquired through amplification, while both mechanisms of acquisition were important contributors in the case of INH-R. These findings highlight the complexity of drug resistance dynamics in high-incidence settings, and emphasize the importance of prioritizing testing algorithms which allow for early detection of INH-R.

Effect of chronic kidney disease on all-cause mortality in tuberculosis disease: an Australian cohort study.

BACKGROUND: While there has been a recent epidemiological and clinical focus on the interaction between diabetes and tuberculosis, the interaction between chronic kidney disease and tuberculosis has been less studied. In particular, little is known of the effect of eGFR levels well above that seen in end stage kidney disease on mortality. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 653 adults from a large Australian hospital network, using data from a state-wide registry of reported tuberculosis cases between 2010 and 2018, with ascertainment of diabetes status and renal function data from hospital medical records and laboratory data. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios for all-cause mortality associated with categories of chronic kidney disease in adults with tuberculosis disease. RESULTS: Total number of deaths was 25 (3.8%). Compared to tuberculosis cases with eGFR ≥ 60 ml/min, all-cause mortality was higher for those with chronic kidney disease from an eGFR level of 45 ml/min. The association was independent of sex, age and diabetes status with adjusted hazard ratio of 4.6 (95% CI: 1.5, 14.4) for eGFR 30-44 ml/min and 8.3 (95% CI: 2.9, 23.7) for eGFR < 30 ml/min. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest a notably increased risk of all-cause mortality even in those with more moderate degrees of renal impairment, in a low tuberculosis prevalence setting. The impact of these findings on a population basis are at least as significant as that found with diabetes and warrant further investigation in populations with higher tuberculosis prevalence.

Self-clearance of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: implications for lifetime risk and population at-risk of tuberculosis disease.

Background: it is widely assumed that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis (TB) disease. However, there is substantial evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection can occur. We infer a curve of self-clearance by time since infection and explore its implications for TB epidemiology. Methods and findings: data for self-clearance were inferred using post-mortem and tuberculin-skin-test reversion studies. A cohort model allowing for self-clearance was fitted in a Bayesian framework before estimating the lifetime risk of TB disease and the population infected with Mtb in India, China and Japan in 2019. We estimated that 24.4% (17.8-32.6%, 95% uncertainty interval (UI)) of individuals self-clear within 10 years of infection, and 73.1% (64.6-81.7%) over a lifetime. The lifetime risk of TB disease was 17.0% (10.9-22.5%), compared to 12.6% (10.1-15.0%) assuming lifelong infection. The population at risk of TB disease in India, China and Japan was 35-80% (95% UI) smaller in the self-clearance scenario. Conclusions: the population with a viable Mtb infection may be markedly smaller than generally assumed, with such individuals at greater risk of TB disease. The ability to identify these individuals could dramatically improve the targeting of preventive programmes and inform TB vaccine development, bringing TB elimination within reach of feasibility.

Neuraminidase Inhibitors and Hospital Length of Stay: A Meta-analysis of Individual Participant Data to Determine Treatment Effectiveness Among Patients Hospitalized With Nonfatal 2009 Pandemic Influenza A(H1N1) Virus Infection.

BACKGROUND: The effect of neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) treatment on length of stay (LoS) in patients hospitalized with influenza is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a one-stage individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis exploring the association between NAI treatment and LoS in patients hospitalized with 2009 influenza A(H1N1) virus (A[H1N1]pdm09) infection. Using mixed-effects negative binomial regression and adjusting for the propensity to receive NAI, antibiotic, and corticosteroid treatment, we calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Patients with a LoS of <1 day and those who died while hospitalized were excluded. RESULTS: We analyzed data on 18 309 patients from 70 clinical centers. After adjustment, NAI treatment initiated at hospitalization was associated with a 19% reduction in the LoS among patients with clinically suspected or laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 infection (IRR, 0.81; 95% CI, .78-.85), compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment. Similar statistically significant associations were seen in all clinical subgroups. NAI treatment (at any time), compared with no NAI treatment, and NAI treatment initiated <2 days after symptom onset, compared with later or no initiation of NAI treatment, showed mixed patterns of association with the LoS. CONCLUSIONS: When patients hospitalized with influenza are treated with NAIs, treatment initiated on admission, regardless of time since symptom onset, is associated with a reduced LoS, compared with later or no initiation of treatment.

Estimating Long-term Tuberculosis Reactivation Rates in Australian Migrants.

BACKGROUND: The risk of progression to tuberculosis (TB) disease is greatest soon after infection, yet disease may occur many years or decades later. However, rates of TB reactivation long after infection remain poorly quantified. Australia has a low incidence of TB and most cases occur among migrants. We explored how TB rates in Australian migrants varied with time from migration, age, and gender. METHODS: We combined TB notifications in census years 2006, 2011, and 2016 with time- and country-specific estimates of latent TB prevalences in migrant cohorts to quantify postmigration reactivation rates. RESULTS: During the census years, 3246 TB cases occurred among an estimated 2 084 000 migrants with latent TB. There were consistent trends in postmigration reactivation rates, which appeared to be dependent on both time from migration and age. Rates were lower in cohorts with increasing time, until at least 20 years from migration, and on this background there also appeared to be increasing rates during youth (15-24 years of age) and in those aged 70 years and above. Within 5 years of migration, annual reactivation rates were approximately 400 per 100 000 (uncertainty interval [UI] 320-480), dropping to 170 (UI 130-220) from 5 to 10 years and 110 (UI 70-160) from 10 to 20 years, then sustaining at 60-70 per 100 000 up to 60 years from migration. Rates varied depending on age at migration. CONCLUSIONS: Postmigration reactivation rates appeared to show dependency on both time from migration and age. This approach to quantifying reactivation risks will enable evaluations of the potential impacts of TB control and elimination strategies.

Clinical trials for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19: current state of play.

Since coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and spread around the world, over 1100 clinical studies have been registered globally on clinical trials registries, including over 500 randomised controlled trials. Such rapid development and launch of clinical trials is impressive but presents challenges, including the potential for duplication and competition. There is currently no known effective treatment for COVID-19. In order to focus on those studies most likely to influence clinical practice, we summarise the 31 currently registered randomised trials with a target sample size of at least 1000 participants. We have grouped these trials into four categories: prophylaxis; treatment of outpatients with mild COVID-19; treatment of hospitalised patients with moderate COVID-19; and treatment of hospitalised patients with moderate or severe disease. The most common therapeutic agent being trialled currently is hydroxychloroquine (24 trials with potential sample size of over 25 000 participants), followed by lopinavir-ritonavir (seven trials) and remdesevir (five trials) There are many candidate drugs in pre-clinical and early phase development, and these form a pipeline for future large clinical trials if current candidate therapies prove ineffective or unsafe.

The role of super-spreading events in Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: evidence from contact tracing.

BACKGROUND: In current epidemiology of tuberculosis (TB), heterogeneity in infectiousness among TB patients is a challenge, which is not well studied. We aimed to quantify this heterogeneity and the presence of "super-spreading" events that can assist in designing optimal public health interventions. METHODS: TB epidemiologic investigation data notified between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015 from Victoria, Australia were used to quantify TB patients' heterogeneity in infectiousness and super-spreading events. We fitted a negative binomial offspring distribution (NBD) for the number of secondary infections and secondary active TB disease each TB patient produced. The dispersion parameter, k, of the NBD measures the level of heterogeneity, where low values of k (e.g. k < 1) indicate over-dispersion. Super-spreading was defined as patients causing as many or more secondary infections as the 99th centile of an equivalent homogeneous distribution. Contact infection was determined based on a tuberculin skin test (TST) result of ≥10 mm. A NBD model was fitted to identify index characteristics that were associated with the number of contacts infected and risk ratios (RRs) were used to quantify the strength of this association. RESULTS: There were 4190 (2312 pulmonary and 1878 extrapulmonary) index TB patients and 18,030 contacts. A total of 15,522 contacts were tested with TST, of whom 3213 had a result of ≥10 mm. The dispersion parameter, k for secondary infections was estimated at 0.16 (95%CI 0.14-0.17) and there were 414 (9.9%) super-spreading events. From the 3213 secondary infections, 2415 (75.2%) were due to super-spreading events. There were 226 contacts who developed active TB disease and a higher level of heterogeneity was found for this outcome than for secondary infection, with k estimated at 0.036 (95%CI 0.025-0.046). In regression analyses, we found that infectiousness was greater among index patients found by clinical presentation and those with bacteriological confirmation. CONCLUSION: TB transmission is highly over dispersed and super-spreading events are responsible for a substantial majority of secondary infections. Heterogeneity of transmission and super-spreading are critical issues to consider in the design of interventions and models of TB transmission dynamics.

Hypothyroidism associated with therapy for multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Reports from resource-poor countries have associated thionamide- and para-aminosalicylate sodium (PAS)-based treatment of multi-drug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) with the development of hypothyroidism. AIM: To identify predictors and assess the cumulative proportions of hypothyroidism in patients treated for MDR-TB with these agents in Australia. METHODS: Retrospective multicentre study of MDR-TB patients from five academic centres covering tuberculosis (TB) services in Victoria, Australia. Patients were identified using each centre's pharmacy department and cross checked with the Victorian Tuberculosis Program. Hypothyroidism was categorised as subclinical if the thyroid-stimulating hormone was elevated and as overt if free thyroxine (fT4) was additionally reduced on two separate occasions. Our main outcome measured was the cumulative proportion of hypothyroidism (at 5 years from treatment initiation). RESULTS: Of the 29 cases available for analysis, the cumulative proportion of hypothyroidism at 5 years was 37% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0-57.8%). Eight of the nine affected cases developed hypothyroidism within the first 12 months of treatment. Hypothyroidism was marginally (P = 0.06) associated with higher prothionamide/PAS dosing and was reversible with cessation of the anti-tuberculosis medication. CONCLUSIONS: Prothionamide/PAS treatment-associated hypothyroidism is common in MDR-TB patients in Australia, emphasising the importance of regular thyroid function monitoring during this treatment. Thyroid hormone replacement, if initiated, may not need to be continued after MDR-TB treatment is completed.

Methods used in the spatial analysis of tuberculosis epidemiology: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis (TB) transmission often occurs within a household or community, leading to heterogeneous spatial patterns. However, apparent spatial clustering of TB could reflect ongoing transmission or co-location of risk factors and can vary considerably depending on the type of data available, the analysis methods employed and the dynamics of the underlying population. Thus, we aimed to review methodological approaches used in the spatial analysis of TB burden. METHODS: We conducted a systematic literature search of spatial studies of TB published in English using Medline, Embase, PsycInfo, Scopus and Web of Science databases with no date restriction from inception to 15 February 2017. The protocol for this systematic review was prospectively registered with PROSPERO ( CRD42016036655 ). RESULTS: We identified 168 eligible studies with spatial methods used to describe the spatial distribution (n = 154), spatial clusters (n = 73), predictors of spatial patterns (n = 64), the role of congregate settings (n = 3) and the household (n = 2) on TB transmission. Molecular techniques combined with geospatial methods were used by 25 studies to compare the role of transmission to reactivation as a driver of TB spatial distribution, finding that geospatial hotspots are not necessarily areas of recent transmission. Almost all studies used notification data for spatial analysis (161 of 168), although none accounted for undetected cases. The most common data visualisation technique was notification rate mapping, and the use of smoothing techniques was uncommon. Spatial clusters were identified using a range of methods, with the most commonly employed being Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic followed by local Moran's I and Getis and Ord's local Gi(d) tests. In the 11 papers that compared two such methods using a single dataset, the clustering patterns identified were often inconsistent. Classical regression models that did not account for spatial dependence were commonly used to predict spatial TB risk. In all included studies, TB showed a heterogeneous spatial pattern at each geographic resolution level examined. CONCLUSIONS: A range of spatial analysis methodologies has been employed in divergent contexts, with all studies demonstrating significant heterogeneity in spatial TB distribution. Future studies are needed to define the optimal method for each context and should account for unreported cases when using notification data where possible. Future studies combining genotypic and geospatial techniques with epidemiologically linked cases have the potential to provide further insights and improve TB control.

A novel Bayesian geospatial method for estimating tuberculosis incidence reveals many missed TB cases in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Reported tuberculosis (TB) incidence globally continues to be heavily influenced by expert opinion of case detection rates and ecological estimates of disease duration. Both approaches are recognised as having substantial variability and inaccuracy, leading to uncertainty in true TB incidence and other such derived statistics. METHODS: We developed Bayesian binomial mixture geospatial models to estimate TB incidence and case detection rate (CDR) in Ethiopia. In these models the underlying true incidence was formulated as a partially observed Markovian process following a mixed Poisson distribution and the detected (observed) TB cases as a binomial distribution, conditional on CDR and true incidence. The models use notification data from multiple areas over several years and account for the existence of undetected TB cases and variability in true underlying incidence and CDR. Deviance information criteria (DIC) were used to select the best performing model. RESULTS: A geospatial model was the best fitting approach. This model estimated that TB incidence in Sheka Zone increased from 198 (95% Credible Interval (CrI) 187, 233) per 100,000 population in 2010 to 232 (95% CrI 212, 253) per 100,000 population in 2014. The model revealed a wide discrepancy between the estimated incidence rate and notification rate, with the estimated incidence ranging from 1.4 (in 2014) to 1.7 (in 2010) times the notification rate (CDR of 71% and 60% respectively). Population density and TB incidence in neighbouring locations (spatial lag) predicted the underlying TB incidence, while health facility availability predicted higher CDR. CONCLUSION: Our model estimated trends in underlying TB incidence while accounting for undetected cases and revealed significant discrepancies between incidence and notification rates in rural Ethiopia. This approach provides an alternative approach to estimating incidence, entirely independent of the methods involved in current estimates and is feasible to perform from routinely collected surveillance data.

A user-friendly mathematical modelling web interface to assist local decision making in the fight against drug-resistant tuberculosis.

Multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis (MDR/RR-TB) represent an important challenge for global tuberculosis (TB) control. The high rates of MDR/RR-TB observed among re-treatment cases can arise from diverse pathways: de novo amplification during initial treatment, inappropriate treatment of undiagnosed MDR/RR-TB, relapse despite appropriate treatment, or reinfection with MDR/RR-TB. Mathematical modelling allows quantification of the contribution made by these pathways in different settings. This information provides valuable insights for TB policy-makers, allowing better contextualised solutions. However, mathematical modelling outputs need to consider local data and be easily accessible to decision makers in order to improve their usefulness. We present a user-friendly web-based modelling interface, which can be used by people without technical knowledge. Users can input their own parameter values and produce estimates for their specific setting. This innovative tool provides easy access to mathematical modelling outputs that are highly relevant to national TB control programs. In future, the same approach could be applied to a variety of modelling applications, enhancing local decision making.

High rates of multidrug-resistant and rifampicin-resistant tuberculosis among re-treatment cases: where do they come from?

BACKGROUND: Globally 3.9% of new and 21% of re-treatment tuberculosis (TB) cases are multidrug-resistant or rifampicin-resistant (MDR/RR), which is often interpreted as evidence that drug resistance results mainly from poor treatment adherence. This study aims to assess the respective contributions of the different causal pathways leading to MDR/RR-TB at re-treatment. METHODS: We use a simple mathematical model to simulate progression between the different stages of disease and treatment for patients diagnosed with TB. The model is parameterised using region and country-specific TB disease burden data reported by the World Health Organization (WHO). The contributions of four separate causal pathways to MDR/RR-TB among re-treatment cases are estimated: I) initial drug-susceptible TB with resistance amplification during treatment; II) initial MDR/RR-TB inappropriately treated as drug-susceptible TB; III) MDR/RR-TB relapse despite appropriate treatment; and IV) re-infection with MDR/RR-TB. RESULTS: At the global level, Pathways I, II, III and IV contribute 38% (28-49, 95% Simulation Interval), 44% (36-52, 95% SI), 6% (5-7, 95% SI) and 12% (7-19, 95% SI) respectively to the burden of MDR/RR-TB among re-treatment cases. Pathway II is dominant in the Western Pacific (74%; 67-80 95% SI), Eastern Mediterranean (68%; 60-74 95% SI) and European (53%; 48-59 95% SI) regions, while Pathway I makes the greatest contribution in the American (53%; 40-66 95% SI), African (43%; 28-61 95% SI) and South-East Asian (50%; 40-59 95% SI) regions. CONCLUSIONS: Globally, failure to diagnose MDR/RR-TB at first presentation is the leading cause of the high proportion of MDR/RR-TB among re-treatment cases. These findings highlight the need for contextualised solutions to limit the impact and spread of MDR/RR-TB.

Comparing tuberculosis management under public and private healthcare providers: Victoria, Australia, 2002-2015.

BACKGROUND: Private healthcare providers are important to tuberculosis (TB) management globally, although internationally there are reports of suboptimal management and disparities in treatment commencement in the private sector. We compared the management of TB patients receiving private versus public healthcare in Victoria, an industrialised setting with low tuberculosis (TB) incidence. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study: 2002-2015. Private healthcare provision was included as an independent variable in several multivariate logistic and Cox proportional hazard regression models that assessed a range of outcome variables, encompassing treatment commencement delays, management and treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Of 5106 patients, 275 (5.4%) exclusively saw private providers, and 4714 (92.32%) public. Private care was associated with a shorter delay to presentation (HR 1.36, p = 0.065, 95% CI 1.02-2.00). Private patients were less likely to have genotypic testing (OR 0.66, p = 0.009, 95% CI 0.48-0.90), those with pulmonary involvement were less likely to have a sputum smear (OR 0.52, p = 0.011, 95% CI 0.31-0.86) and provided samples were less likely to be positive (OR 0.54, p = 0.070, 95% CI 0.27-1.05). Private patients with extrapulmonary TB were less likely to have a smear sample (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.48-0.90, p = 0.009) and radiological abnormalities (OR 0.71, p = 0.070, 95% CI 0.27-1.05). Treatment commencement delays from presentation were comparable for cases with pulmonary involvement and extrapulmonary TB, although public extrapulmonary TB patients received radiological examinations slightly earlier than private patients (HR 0.79, p = 0.043, 95% CI 0.63-0.99) and public patients with pulmonary involvement from high burden settings commenced treatment following an abnormal CXR more promptly than their private counterparts (HR 0.41, p = 0.011, 95% CI 0.21-0.81). Private patients were more likely to receive <4 first-line medications (OR 2.17, p = 0.001, 95% CI 1.36-3.46), but treatment outcomes were comparable between sectors. CONCLUSIONS: The differences we identified are likely to reflect differing case-mix as well as clinician practice. Sputum smear status was an important covariable in our analysis; with its addition we found no significant disparity in the health-system delay to treatment commencement between sectors. Our study highlights the importance of TB programs engaging with private providers, enabling comprehensive data collection that is necessary for thorough and true comparison of TB management and optimisation of care.

SIRCLE: a randomised controlled cost comparison of self-administered short-course isoniazid and rifapentine for cost-effective latent tuberculosis eradication.

BACKGROUND: Currently, treatment of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) in Australia consists most commonly of a 9-month course of isoniazid (9H). A 3-month course of weekly isoniazid and rifapentine (3HP) has been shown to be as effective as 9 months of daily isoniazid, and associated with less hepatotoxicity; however, rifapentine is not currently available in Australia. Introduction of this regimen would have apparent advantages for people with LTBI in Victoria by safely shortening duration of LTBI therapy. However, the cost benefit of this new therapeutic approach is uncertain. AIM: Cost-analysis of standard and short-course therapy for LTBI in an Australian context. METHODS: Single-centre randomised controlled trial conducted between December 2013-March 2016. Participants underwent 1:1 randomisation to either a 9-month course of daily isoniazid or a 12-week course of weekly isoniazid and rifapentine. The primary outcome measure was total healthcare system costs (in Australian dollars; AUD) per completed course of LTBI therapy. Secondary cost analyses were performed to consider varying assumptions regarding commercial cost of rifapentine. RESULTS: Overall, 34 of 40 (85%) participants in the 9H group and 36/40 (90%) in the 3HR group completed therapy. One patient in the 3HP group was hospitalised for a febrile illness; no hospitalisations were recorded in the 9H group. The cost per completed course of 9H was 601 AUD, while that of 3HP was significantly lower at 511 AUD (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides cost analysis evidence to support the use of 3HP for the treatment of LTBI in Australia.

Tuberculosis screening in an aged care residential facility in a low-incidence setting.

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a disease of high morbidity in Australia, with implications for both public health and the individual. Cost analyses is relevant for programmatic evaluation of TB. There is minimal published TB cost data in the Australian setting. Patients with drug sensitive active pulmonary TB (DS-PTB) and latent TB (LTBI) were enrolled in a single tertiary referral centre to evaluate healthcare provider costs. The median cost of treating drug susceptible pulmonary TB in this case series was 11,538 AUD. Approximately 50% of total costs is derived from inpatient hospitalisation bed days. In comparison, the average cost of managing latent TB was 582 AUD per completed course. We find the median provider cost of our DS-PTB treatment group comparable to costs from other regions globally with similar economic profiles. A program designed to detect and treat LTBI to prevent subsequent disease may be cost effective in appropriately selected patients and warrants further study.

Scenario Analysis for Programmatic Tuberculosis Control in Western Province, Papua New Guinea.

Tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant TB (MDR-TB) are major health problems in Western Province, Papua New Guinea. While comprehensive expansion of TB control programs is desirable, logistical challenges are considerable, and there is substantial uncertainty regarding the true disease burden. We parameterized our previously described mathematical model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis dynamics in Western Province, following an epidemiologic assessment. Five hypothetical scenarios representing alternative programmatic approaches during the period from 2013 to 2023 were developed with local staff. Bayesian uncertainty analyses were undertaken to explicitly acknowledge the uncertainty around key epidemiologic parameters, and an economic evaluation was performed. With continuation of existing programmatic strategies, overall TB incidence remained stable at 555 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% simulation interval (SI): 420, 807), but the proportion of incident cases attributable to MDR-TB increased from 16% to 35%. Comprehensive, provincewide strengthening of existing programs reduced incidence to 353 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 246, 558), with 46% being cases of MDR-TB, while incorporating programmatic management of MDR-TB into these programs reduced incidence to 233 cases per 100,000 population per year (95% SI: 198, 269) with 14% MDR-TB. Most economic costs were due to hospitalization during the intensive treatment phase. Broad scale-up of TB control activities in Western Province with incorporation of programmatic management of MDR-TB is vital if control is to be achieved. Community-based treatment approaches are important to reduce the associated economic costs.