Predictive bias in pretrial risk assessment: Application of the Public Safety Assessment in a Native American population.

OBJECTIVE: Native Americans are vastly overrepresented in U.S. jails and people in rural communities face unique barriers (e.g., limited public transportation and services) that may impact how well pretrial risk assessments predict outcomes. Yet, these populations are understudied in the literature examining the predictive validity and, more importantly, the potential predictive bias of pretrial risk assessments. We sought to address these gaps. HYPOTHESES: We had three aims: (a) examine the validity of Public Safety Assessment (PSA) scores in predicting pretrial outcomes in a county with a high degree of rurality, (b) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among Native American and White people, and (c) compare predictive validity and test for predictive bias among men and women. METHOD: Our sample comprised 4,570 closed cases involving people released on personal recognizance bonds over a 3.5-year period. About two thirds were Native American and men. The PSA was completed and outcome data were collected as part of routine pretrial practice. RESULTS: In slightly more than one third of cases, people failed to appear or were rearrested during the pretrial period. In the full sample, PSA scores demonstrated poor validity in predicting failure to appear but fair validity in predicting new arrest. Further analyses revealed predictive bias as a function of both race and sex in the prediction of failure to appear. In contrast, we did not find evidence of bias in the prediction of new criminal arrest, although predictive validity was slightly better for White people and men. CONCLUSION: Our findings raise concerns regarding the use of PSA scores to inform pretrial decisions related to risk for failure to appear in rural communities and among Native American people. They also highlight concerns regarding reliance on static factors as well as the need for research on the validity of pretrial risk assessments in these populations. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Patterns of Self-Reported Mental Health Symptoms and Treatment among People Booked into a Large Metropolitan County Jail.

The Brief Jail Mental Health Screen (BJMHS) is one of the most well-known and frequently used tools to conduct routine mental health screening at jail intake. In prior research, the BJMHS results typically have been evaluated overall (i.e., yes/no positive screen). However, there is heterogeneity in symptom presentation and treatment histories among people with serious mental illness, and there are potential consequences of this heterogeneity for mental health administration and policy in jails. We conducted a latent class analysis of BJMHS item-level results using administrative data for 37,998 people booked into a southeastern, metropolitan, U.S. county jail over a 3.5-year period. A 4-class solution provided the best fitting and most interpretable model. The largest class (89.5%) comprised people unlikely to report symptoms or treatment histories (limited symptoms). The next class comprised people who were unlikely to report ongoing symptoms but reported medication and hospitalization (managed symptoms). The third class (2.5%) included people likely to report feeling useless/sinful, prior hospitalization, and current psychiatric medication (depressive symptoms). The fourth class (1.0%) comprised people likely to report thought control, paranoia, feeling useless/sinful, medication, and hospitalization (psychotic symptoms). Controlling for sociodemographic and booking characteristics, people in the managed, depressive, and psychotic symptoms classes had significantly longer jail stays compared to those in the limited symptoms class. People in the managed and depressive symptoms classes were at heightened risk of re-arrest compared to the limited symptoms class. Findings can inform case prioritization and the allocation of resources to support efficient and effective jail-based mental health services.

Comparing the relationships between money bail, pretrial risk scores, and pretrial outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: There has been much discussion around the use of both money bail and pretrial risk assessment instruments. We examine how bail and risk scores compare in terms of their associations with failure to appear in court and rearrest during the pretrial period. HYPOTHESES: Our research questions included whether bail and risk scores differed between people who did and did not experience pretrial outcomes and whether pretrial scores were associated with outcomes when controlling for bail and other relevant covariates. METHOD: To examine these associations, we drew a sample of 492 people (33% women; 60% Black) booked into county jail in a jurisdiction not yet using a pretrial risk assessment instrument to inform release decisions. We completed the Public Safety Assessment (PSA) for this sample and collected data on failure-to-appear and rearrest incidents for 1 year following initial bookings. We examined the associations between bail amount, failure to appear, and rearrest and between PSA subscale scores, failure to appear, and rearrest. RESULTS: Bail amount was not associated with either failure to appear or rearrest. People who failed to appear or were rearrested had higher bail amounts, on average, than people who did not. In contrast, PSA subscale scores were significantly associated with outcomes in the expected direction. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do not support the use of money bail for ensuring that people return to court and avoid rearrest. Instead, our findings suggest that using pretrial risk assessment, instruments could result in more accurate and appropriate release decisions. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Military self-stigma as a mediator of the link between military identity and suicide risk.

US military Veterans are at greater risk for suicide than those who have never served in the US military. Recent federal calls include the need to investigate military-specific suicide risk and protective factors among military-affiliated populations. To date, no study has examined the link between military identity, self-stigma, and suicide risk. The current study used a nationally representative sample of post-Vietnam US military Veterans (N = 1,461) in order to determine relationships between military identity, self-stigma, and suicide risk. Idealism (OR = 0.86) with less odds of elevated suicide risk, whereas individualism (OR = 1.15) and military self-stigma (OR = 1.39) were associated with increased odds of elevated suicide risk. Military self-stigma was found to mediate the relationship between military identity components and suicide risk. Implications for conceptualization of military Veteran identity, suicide prevention, and future research are discussed.

Sexual violence victimization and suicide: Testing a coping-mental health framework.

Sexual violence victimization is a prevalent public health concern. However, little research has investigated the factors linking sexual violence victimization to suicidal thoughts and behaviors (STBs). The current study tested the applicability of the psychological mediation framework, a coping-mental health model, for the prevention of STBs among victims of sexual youviolence. Furthermore, the current study explored whether sexual orientation moderated the progression from sexual violence victimization to STBs. Data were drawn from an online survey of victimization experiences and health (N = 2175). Bootstrap mediation tested whether the association of sexual violence victimization and STBs was mediated by emotion regulation strategies (cognitive reappraisal and expressive suppression) and psychopathology (anxiety, depression, and posttraumatic stress disorder). Multiple-groups analysis tested whether links within the mediation effects varied by sexual orientation. Bivariate findings showed that: (1) sexual minority persons were more likely to report sexual violence victimization and (2) cognitive reappraisal was more meaningfully associated with mental health among sexual minority persons. Sexual violence victimization was associated with STBs via a serial mediation through emotion regulation and psychopathology. The association between psychopathology and STBs was stronger among sexual minority compared with heterosexual respondents. Physical violence victimization was associated with STBs for heterosexual but not sexual minority persons in a follow-up model. Findings support an emotion regulation-mental health framework for the prevention of suicide among victims of sexual violence. Research and training implications are discussed.

Principles and practices of risk assessment in mental health jail diversion programs.

Eligibility criteria for participation in mental health jail diversion programs often specify that, to be diverted, a candidate must not pose a level of threat to public safety that cannot be managed in the community. Risk assessment tools were developed to increase consistency and accuracy in estimates of threat to public safety. Consequently, risk assessment tools are being used in many jurisdictions to inform decisions regarding an individual's appropriateness and eligibility for mental health jail diversion and the strategies that may be successful in mitigating risk in this context. However, their use is not without controversy. Questions have been raised regarding the validity and equity of their estimates, as well as the impact of their use on criminal justice outcomes. The purpose of this review is to provide an overview of the science and practice of risk assessment to inform decisions and case planning in the context of mental health jail diversion programs. Our specific aims include: (1) to describe the process and components of risk assessment, including differentiating between different approaches to risk assessment, and (2) to consider the use of risk assessment tools in mental health jail diversion programs. We anchor this review in relevant theory and extant research, noting current controversies or debates and areas for future research. Overall, there is strong theoretical justification and empirical evidence from other criminal justice contexts; however, the body of research on the use of risk assessment tools in mental health jail diversion programs, although promising, is relatively nascent.

Preliminary Evaluation of a Prescription Opioid Misuse Prevention Program Among Rural Middle School Students.

Adolescent opioid misuse, addiction, and overdose have emerged as national health crises. Nearly 17% of high school students have misused prescription opioids. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reach and acceptability of a widely-used prescription opioid misuse prevention program, This Is (Not) About Drugs© (TINAD), and its preliminary efficacy at improving opioid misuse knowledge, opioid misuse attitudes, self-efficacy to avoid opioid misuse, and intentions to misuse opioids. Participants were 576 7th grade students (Mage = 11.8; 51% boys; 39% Hispanic, 31% White, 20% Black) from a rural county in the southeastern U.S. All participants received the TINAD program and completed pretest and immediate posttest assessments. The program was school-based and implemented in collaboration with school teachers and administrators. Over 91% of all eligible students in the school district participated in the TINAD program. Most participants found the program acceptable-over 83% of students liked the program. Approximately 9% of participants reported prior misuse of prescription opioids. After participating in TINAD, students self-reported higher knowledge and self-efficacy as well as safer attitudes. However, there was no change in intentions to misuse opioids in the future. Effects of the program were consistent across gender, socioeconomic status, race/ethnicity, and previous opioid misuse. TINAD is acceptable and shows promise for improving opioid-related cognitions. However, more rigorous experimental and longitudinal research is needed to understand whether TINAD reduces opioid misuse over time. Given the limited research on adolescent opioid misuse prevention, this study lays the ground work for future randomized control trials.

The Coping Self-Efficacy Scale: Psychometric properties in an outpatient sample of active duty military personnel.

Active duty military service members endure a unique constellation of stressors while deployed or at home. Yet, assessment of protective factors against these stressors among active duty service members represents an under studied area. The present study advances the assessment of protective factors through the psychometric evaluation of the Coping Self-Efficacy Scale (CSES) in a clinical sample of military service members in mental health or substance abuse treatment (n = 200). Cross-sectional data were drawn from military medical records and a supplemental self-report questionnaire. Data extracted included demographic (e.g., sex, age), military characteristics (e.g., rank, years in service), physical health and mental health (e.g., anxiety, depression), and coping self-efficacy. Findings suggest a 3-factor (i.e., problem-focused coping, thought-stopping, and getting social support) CSES structure with acceptable internal consistency. Further, there were small-to-moderate associations with physical and mental health outcomes, providing evidence of construct validity. There were few significant associations with military-related characteristics. Finally, controlling for covariates, thought-stopping beliefs explained unique variance in suicide-related behaviors. Together, findings support the use of the CSES to measure coping-related beliefs in military service members. Recommendations are offered for future research and practice with active duty service members.

Prevalence rates, reporting, and psychosocial correlates of stalking victimization: results from a three-sample cross-sectional study.

PURPOSE: Public health and criminal justice stalking victimization data collection efforts are plagued by subjective definitions and lack of known psychosocial correlates. The present study assesses the question of stalking victimization prevalence among three groups. Psychosocial risk and protective factors associated with stalking victimization experiences were assessed. METHODS: Archival data (n = 2159) were drawn from a three-sample (i.e., U.S. nationwide sexual diversity special interest group, college student, and general population adult) cross-sectional survey of victimization, sexuality, and health. RESULTS: The range of endorsement of stalking-related victimization experiences was 13.0-47.9%. Reported perpetrators were both commonly known and unknown persons to the victim. Participants disclosed the victimization primarily to nobody or a family member/friend. Bivariate correlates of stalking victimization were female gender, Associates/Bachelor-level education, bisexual or other sexual orientation minority status, hypertension, diabetes, older age, higher weekly drug use, elevated trait aggression, higher cognitive reappraisal skills, lower rape myth acceptance, and elevated psychiatric symptoms. Logistic regression results showed the strongest factors in identifying elevated stalking victimization risk were: older age, elevated aggression, higher cognitive reappraisal skills, lesser low self-control, increased symptoms of suicidality and PTSD re-experiencing, and female and other gender minority status. CONCLUSIONS: Behavioral approaches to epidemiological and criminal justice stalking victimization are recommended. Victimization under reporting to healthcare and legal professionals were observed. Further research and prevention programming is needed to capitalize on data concerning personality and coping skills, sexual diversity, and trauma-related psychiatric symptoms.

Facilitators and Barriers to Disclosure of Postpartum Mood Disorder Symptoms to a Healthcare Provider.

Objectives This study explored perceived barriers and facilitators to disclosure of postpartum mood disorder (PPMD) symptoms to healthcare professionals among a community-based sample. Methods A sample of predominantly white, middle class, partnered, adult women from an urban area in the southeast United States (n = 211) within 3 years postpartum participated in an online survey including the Perceived Barriers to Treatment Scale, the Maternity Social Support Scale, the Depression, Anxiety and Stress Scales-21, and items querying PPMD disclosure. Perceived barriers were operationalized as factors, from the patient's perspective, that impede or reduce the likelihood of discussing her postpartum mood symptoms with a healthcare provider. Analyses examined: (1) characteristics associated with perceived barriers; (2) characteristics associated with perceived social support; and (3) characteristics, perceived barriers, and perceived social support as predictors of disclosure. Results Over half of the sample reported PPMD symptoms, but one in five did not disclose to a healthcare provider. Approximately half of women reported at least one barrier that made help-seeking "extremely difficult" or "impossible." Over one-third indicated they had less than adequate social support. Social support and stress, but not barriers, were associated with disclosure in multivariable models. Conclusions for Practice Many women experiencing clinically-significant levels of distress did not disclose their symptoms of PPMD. Beyond universal screening, efforts to promote PPMD disclosure and help-seeking should target mothers' social support networks.

Predictive validity of HCR-20, START, and static-99R assessments in predicting institutional aggression among sexual offenders.

Sexual offenders are at greater risk of nonsexual than sexual violence. Yet, only a handful of studies have examined the validity of risk assessments in predicting general, nonsexual violence in this population. This study examined the predictive validity of assessments completed using the Historical-Clinical-Risk Managment-20 Version 2 (HCR-20; Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997), Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; Webster, Martin, Brink, Nicholls, & Desmarais, 2009), and Static-99R (Hanson & Thornton, 1999) in predicting institutional (nonsexual) aggression among 152 sexual offenders in a large secure forensic state hospital. Aggression data were gathered from institutional records over 90-day and 180-day follow-up periods. Results support the predictive validity of HCR-20 and START, and to a lesser extent, Static-99R assessments in predicting institutional aggression among patients detained or civilly committed pursuant to the sexually violent predator (SVP) law. In general, HCR-20 and START assessments demonstrated greater predictive validity-specifically, the HCR-20 Clinical subscale scores and START Vulnerability total scores-than Static-99R assessments across types of aggression and follow-up periods. (PsycINFO Database Record

Lifetime substance use as a predictor of postpartum mental health.

Postpartum mood disorders (PPMD) affect approximately 10-20% of women and have adverse consequences for both mom and baby. Lifetime substance use has received limited attention in relation to PPMD. The present study examined associations of lifetime alcohol and drug use with postpartum mental health problems. Women (n = 100) within approximately 3 months postpartum (M = 2.01, SD = 1.32) participated in semi-structured interviews querying lifetime substance use, mental health history, and postpartum symptoms of anxiety, stress, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, and obsessive compulsive disorder. The study was conducted in an urban Canadian city from 2009 to 2010. Analyses revealed that lifetime substance use increased the variability explained in postpartum PTSD (p = .011), above and beyond sociodemographic characteristics and mental health history. The same trend, though not significant, was observed for stress (p = .059) and anxiety (p = .070). Lifetime drug use, specifically, was associated with postpartum stress (p = .021) and anxiety (p = .041), whereas lifetime alcohol use was not (ps ≥ .128). Findings suggest that lifetime drug use is associated with PPMD. Future research should examine whether screening for lifetime drug use during antenatal and postpartum care improves identification of women experiencing PPMD.

Recidivism following mental health court exit: Between and within-group comparisons.

Over the past decade, Mental Health Courts (MHCs) have spread rapidly across the U.S. These courts aim to reduce recidivism among adults with mental illnesses through diversion into community-based treatment. Extant research suggests that MHCs can be effective in reducing recidivism, but also demonstrates that effectiveness varies as a function of characteristics of the participants (e.g., criminal history) and the program (e.g., coercion). Less is known regarding the extent to which process-related factors (e.g., length of participation, time between referral and receipt of services) impact effectiveness. Prior research also is limited by a focus on recidivism during MHC as opposed to postexit. To address these knowledge gaps, we examined recidivism 1 year postexit for a group of MHC participants (n = 57) and offenders receiving treatment as usual (TAU; n = 40), total N = 97. We also investigated the influence of individual characteristics and process factors on changes in jail days 1 year preentry to 1 year postexit for MHC participants. Overall, results provide some evidence supporting the effectiveness of MHCs. MHC participants had significantly fewer jail days, but not charges or convictions, relative to TAU participants. Among MHC participants, graduation from the MHC, presence of co-occurring substance use, and longer length of MHC participation were associated with greater reductions in jail days. Other process factors were unrelated to reductions in recidivism. Findings suggest that MHCs may be particularly effective for high-risk participants and that time spent in a MHC has positive effects on recidivism, regardless of graduation status.

Mental health correlates of drug treatment among women who use methamphetamine.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Women comprise over one-third of people who use methamphetamine in the United States and have a higher prevalence of negative mental health consequences of methamphetamine use than men. Yet, few studies have investigated the mental health correlates of drug treatment among this population. We examined the relationship between mental disorders, mental health treatment, and drug treatment among women who use methamphetamine. METHODS: We used respondent-driven sampling to recruit women who use methamphetamine (N = 322) for a survey about mental disorders, mental health treatment, drug use and treatment, and sociodemographic factors. Bivariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted. RESULTS: Bivariate analyses indicated that race/ethnicity, mental health treatment, and presence and number of mental disorders were associated with drug treatment. Multivariable analyses revealed that women who reported mental health treatment during a 6-month period had almost twice the odds of also reporting drug treatment than other women (AOR = 1.90; 95% CI = 1.11, 3.25), after controlling for mental disorders and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSION: Among women who use methamphetamine, participation in one service system (mental health treatment) is a key factor in increasing the odds of participation in another service system (drug treatment). Further research should establish the temporal association between mental health and drug treatment. SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE: The present study demonstrates the association between mental health treatment and drug treatment, above and beyond presence or number of mental disorders, and provides direction for drug treatment providers seeking to improve treatment entry and participation among women who use methamphetamine.

Community violence perpetration and victimization among adults with mental illnesses.

OBJECTIVES: In a large heterogeneous sample of adults with mental illnesses, we examined the 6-month prevalence and nature of community violence perpetration and victimization, as well as associations between these outcomes. METHODS: Baseline data were pooled from 5 studies of adults with mental illnesses from across the United States (n = 4480); the studies took place from 1992 to 2007. The MacArthur Community Violence Screening Instrument was administered to all participants. RESULTS: Prevalence of perpetration ranged from 11.0% to 43.4% across studies, with approximately one quarter (23.9%) of participants reporting violence. Prevalence of victimization was higher overall (30.9%), ranging from 17.0% to 56.6% across studies. Most violence (63.5%) was perpetrated in residential settings. The prevalence of violence-related physical injury was approximately 1 in 10 overall and 1 in 3 for those involved in violent incidents. There were strong associations between perpetration and victimization. CONCLUSIONS: Results provided further evidence that adults with mental illnesses experienced violent outcomes at high rates, and that they were more likely to be victims than perpetrators of community violence. There is a critical need for public health interventions designed to reduce violence in this vulnerable population.

Intimate partner abuse before and during pregnancy as risk factors for postpartum mental health problems.

BACKGROUND: Although research has established the profound effects that intimate partner abuse can have on postpartum mental health, little is known regarding how this association may change as a function of the timing and type of abuse. This study examined associations of psychological, physical and sexual abuse experienced as adults before and during pregnancy with symptoms of postpartum mental health problems in a non-clinical sample of women. METHODS: English-speaking mothers aged 18 years and older in the metropolitan area of a large, Western Canadian city were recruited to participate in a study of women's health after pregnancy. The study was advertised in hospitals, local newspapers, community venues, and relevant websites. One-hundred women completed standardized, self-report questionnaires during semi-structured interviews conducted by female research assistants at approximately 2 months postpartum. In addition to questions about their general health and well-being, participants answered questions about their experiences of intimate partner abuse and about their mental health during the postpartum period. RESULTS: Almost two-thirds (61.0%) of women reported postpartum mental health symptoms above normal levels, with 47.0% reporting symptoms at moderate or higher levels. The majority reported some form of intimate partner abuse before pregnancy (84.0%) and more than two-thirds (70.0%), during pregnancy; however, the abuse was typically minor in nature. Multivariate models revealed that women who experienced intimate partner abuse-whether before or during pregnancy-reported higher levels of postpartum mental health problems; however, associations differed as a function of the timing and type of abuse, as well as specific mental health symptoms. Multivariate models also showed that as the number of types of intimate partner abuse experienced increased, so did the negative effects on postpartum mental health. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study provide further evidence that intimate partner abuse is a risk factor for postpartum mental health problems. They also underscore the complex risks and needs associated with intimate partner abuse among postpartum women and support the use of integrated approaches to treating postpartum mental health problems. Future efforts should focus on the extent to which strategies designed to reduce intimate partner abuse also improve postpartum mental health and vice versus.

What influences perceptions of procedural justice among people with mental illness regarding their interactions with the police?

According to procedural justice theory, a central factor shaping perceptions about authority figures and dispute resolution processes is whether an individual believes they were treated justly and fairly during personal encounters with agents of authority. This paper describes findings from a community-based participatory research study examining perceptions of procedural justice among sixty people with mental illness regarding their interactions with police. The degree to which these perceptions were associated with selected individual (e.g., socio-demographic characteristics), contextual (e.g., neighborhood, past experiences), and interactional (e.g., actions of the officer) factors was explored. The results of regression analyses indicate that the behavior of police officers during the interactions appears to be the key to whether or not these interactions are perceived by people with mental illness as being procedurally just. Implications of these findings for improving interactions between the police and people with mental illness are discussed.

From Risk Assessment to Risk Management: Matching Interventions to Adolescent Offenders' Strengths and Vulnerabilities.

Though considerable research has examined the validity of risk assessment tools in predicting adverse outcomes in justice-involved adolescents, the extent to which risk assessments are translated into risk management strategies and, importantly, the association between this link and adverse outcomes has gone largely unexamined. To address these shortcomings, the Risk-Need-Responsivity (RNR) model was used to examine associations between identified strengths and vulnerabilities, interventions, and institutional outcomes for justice-involved youth. Data were collected from risk assessments completed using the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) for 120 adolescent offenders (96 boys and 24 girls). Interventions and outcomes were extracted from institutional records. Mixed evidence of adherence to RNR principles was found. Accordant to the risk principle, adolescent offenders judged to have more strengths had more strength-based interventions in their service plans, though adolescent offenders with more vulnerabilities did not have more interventions targeting their vulnerabilities. With respect to the need and responsivity principles, vulnerabilities and strengths identified as particularly relevant to the individual youth's risk of adverse outcomes were addressed in the service plans about half and a quarter of the time, respectively. Greater adherence to the risk and need principles was found to predict significantly the likelihood of externalizing outcomes. Findings suggest some gaps between risk assessment and risk management and highlight the potential usefulness of strength-based approaches to intervention.

Measurement of predictive validity in violence risk assessment studies: a second-order systematic review.

The objective of the present review was to examine how predictive validity is analyzed and reported in studies of instruments used to assess violence risk. We reviewed 47 predictive validity studies published between 1990 and 2011 of 25 instruments that were included in two recent systematic reviews. Although all studies reported receiver operating characteristic curve analyses and the area under the curve (AUC) performance indicator, this methodology was defined inconsistently and findings often were misinterpreted. In addition, there was between-study variation in benchmarks used to determine whether AUCs were small, moderate, or large in magnitude. Though virtually all of the included instruments were designed to produce categorical estimates of risk - through the use of either actuarial risk bins or structured professional judgments - only a minority of studies calculated performance indicators for these categorical estimates. In addition to AUCs, other performance indicators, such as correlation coefficients, were reported in 60% of studies, but were infrequently defined or interpreted. An investigation of sources of heterogeneity did not reveal significant variation in reporting practices as a function of risk assessment approach (actuarial vs. structured professional judgment), study authorship, geographic location, type of journal (general vs. specialized audience), sample size, or year of publication. Findings suggest a need for standardization of predictive validity reporting to improve comparison across studies and instruments.

Predictive validity of dynamic factors: assessing violence risk in forensic psychiatric inpatients.

There is general consensus that dynamic factors ought to be considered in the assessment of violence risk, but little direct evidence exists to demonstrate that within-individual fluctuations in putative dynamic factors are associated with changes in risk. We examined these issues in a sample of 30 male forensic psychiatric inpatients using a pseudoprospective design. Static and dynamic factors were coded on the basis of chart review using 2 structured measures of violence risk: Version 2 of the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20; C. D. Webster, K. S. Douglas, D. Eaves, & S. D. Hart, 1997, HCR-20: Assessing risk for violence, Version 2, Vancouver, BC, Canada: Mental Health, Law, and Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University) and the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START; C. D. Webster, M. L. Martin, J. Brink, T. L. Nicholls, & S. L. Desmarais, 2009, Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability [START], Version 1.1, Coquitlam, BC, Canada: British Columbia Mental Health and Addiction Services). HCR-20 and START assessments were repeated every 3 months for a period of 1 year. Institutional violence in the 3 months following each assessment was coded using a modified version of the Overt Aggression Scale (S. C. Yudofsky, J. M. Silver, W. Jackson, J. Endicott, & D. W. Williams, 1986, The Overt Aggression Scale for the objective rating of verbal and physical aggression, The American Journal of Psychiatry, Vol. 143, pp. 35-39). Dynamic risk and strength factors showed predictive validity for institutional aggression. Results of event history analyses demonstrated that changes in dynamic risk factors significantly predicted institutional violence, even after controlling for static risk factors. This is one of the first studies to provide clear and direct support for the utility of dynamic factors in the assessment of violence risk.