Continuous event monitoring via a Bayesian predictive approach.

In clinical trials, continuous monitoring of event incidence rate plays a critical role in making timely decisions affecting trial outcome. For example, continuous monitoring of adverse events protects the safety of trial participants, while continuous monitoring of efficacy events helps identify early signals of efficacy or futility. Because the endpoint of interest is often the event incidence associated with a given length of treatment duration (e.g., incidence proportion of an adverse event with 2 years of dosing), assessing the event proportion before reaching the intended treatment duration becomes challenging, especially when the event onset profile evolves over time with accumulated exposure. In particular, in the earlier part of the study, ignoring censored subjects may result in significant bias in estimating the cumulative event incidence rate. Such a problem is addressed using a predictive approach in the Bayesian framework. In the proposed approach, experts' prior knowledge about both the frequency and timing of the event occurrence is combined with observed data. More specifically, during any interim look, each event-free subject will be counted with a probability that is derived using prior knowledge. The proposed approach is particularly useful in early stage studies for signal detection based on limited information. But it can also be used as a tool for safety monitoring (e.g., data monitoring committee) during later stage trials. Application of the approach is illustrated using a case study where the incidence rate of an adverse event is continuously monitored during an Alzheimer's disease clinical trial. The performance of the proposed approach is also assessed and compared with other Bayesian and frequentist methods via simulation.

Translational evaluation of JNJ-18038683, a 5-hydroxytryptamine type 7 receptor antagonist, on rapid eye movement sleep and in major depressive disorder.

In rodents 5-hydroxytryptamine type 7 (5-HT(7)) receptor blockade has been shown to be effective in models of depression and to increase the latency to rapid eye movement (REM) sleep and decrease REM duration. In the clinic, the REM sleep reduction observed with many antidepressants may serve as a biomarker. We report here the preclinical and clinical evaluation of a 5-HT(7) receptor antagonist, (3-(4-chlorophenyl)-1,4,5,6,7,8-hexahydro-1-(phenylmethyl)pyrazolo[3,4-d]azepine 2-hydroxy-1,2,3-propanetricarboxylate) (JNJ-18038683). In rodents, JNJ-18038683 increased the latency to REM sleep and decreased REM duration, and this effect was maintained after repeated administration for 7 days. The compound was effective in the mouse tail suspension test. JNJ-18038683 enhanced serotonin transmission, antidepressant-like behavior, and REM sleep suppression induced by citalopram in rodents. In healthy human volunteers JNJ-18038683 prolonged REM latency and reduced REM sleep duration, demonstrating that the effect of 5-HT(7) blockade on REM sleep translated from rodents to humans. Like in rats, JNJ-18038683 enhanced REM sleep suppression induced by citalopram in humans, although a drug-drug interaction could not be ruled out. In a double-blind, active, and placebo-controlled clinical trial in 225 patients suffering from major depressive disorder, neither treatment with pharmacologically active doses of JNJ-18038683 or escitalopram separated from placebo, indicating a failed study lacking assay sensitivity. Post hoc analyses using an enrichment window strategy, where all the efficacy data from sites with an implausible high placebo response [placebo group Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) < = 12] and from sites with no placebo response (MADRS > = 28) are removed, there was a clinically meaningful difference between JNJ-18038683 and placebo. Further clinical studies are required to characterize the potential antidepressant efficacy of JNJ-18038683.

Protocol of the Cognitive Health in Ageing Register: Investigational, Observational and Trial Studies in Dementia Research (CHARIOT): Prospective Readiness cOhort (PRO) SubStudy.

INTRODUCTION: The Cognitive Health in Ageing Register: Investigational, Observational and Trial Studies in Dementia Research (CHARIOT): Prospective Readiness cOhort (PRO) SubStudy (CPSS), sponsored by Janssen Pharmaceutical Research & Development LLC, is an Alzheimer's disease (AD) biomarker enriched observational study that began 3 July 2015 CPSS aims to identify and validate determinants of AD, alongside cognitive, functional and biological changes in older adults with or without detectable evidence of AD pathology at baseline. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: CPSS is a dual-site longitudinal cohort (3.5 years) assessed quarterly. Cognitively normal participants (60-85 years) were recruited across Greater London and Edinburgh. Participants are classified as high, medium (amnestic or non-amnestic) or low risk for developing mild cognitive impairment-Alzheimer's disease based on their Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status performance at screening. Additional AD-related assessments include: a novel cognitive composite, the Global Preclinical Alzheimer's Cognitive Composite, brain MRI and positron emission tomography and cerebrospinal fluid analysis. Lifestyle, other cognitive and functional data, as well as biosamples (blood, urine, and saliva) are collected. Primarily, study analyses will evaluate longitudinal change in cognitive and functional outcomes. Annual interim analyses for descriptive data occur throughout the course of the study, although inferential statistics are conducted as required. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: CPSS received ethical approvals from the London-Central Research Ethics Committee (15/LO/0711) and the Administration of Radioactive Substances Advisory Committee (RPC 630/3764/33110) The study is at the forefront of global AD prevention efforts, with frequent and robust sampling of the well-characterised cohort, allowing for detection of incipient pathophysiological, cognitive and functional changes that could inform therapeutic strategies to prevent and/or delay cognitive impairment and dementia. Dissemination of results will target the scientific community, research participants, volunteer community, public, industry, regulatory authorities and policymakers. On study completion, and following a predetermined embargo period, CPSS data are planned to be made accessible for analysis to facilitate further research into the determinants of AD pathology, onset of symptomatology and progression. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: The CHARIOT:PRO SubStudy is registered with clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02114372). Notices of protocol modifications will be made available through this trial registry.

Clinical Evaluation of Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities in Bapineuzumab Phase III Studies.

BACKGROUND: Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities with effusion or edema (ARIA-E) reported in patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease in bapineuzumab phase III studies. OBJECTIVES: Assess symptoms, clinical severity, and ARIA-E outcomes, and to evaluate effects on cognition and function. METHODS: A centralized systematic sequential locked procedure and scoring system for assessment of magnetic resonance imaging scans in 1,331 APOE ɛ4 noncarriers and 1,121 carriers was conducted by experienced and trained pairs of neuroradiologists. RESULTS: Treatment-emergent ARIA-E occurred in 15.8% of bapineuzumab and 0.8% placebo-treated patients. In all treated APOE ɛ4 noncarriers, the percentage of patients with ARIA-E was 5.6%, 13.4%, and 19.9% in the 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 mg/kg groups respectively, and the incidence of symptomatic ARIA-E was 1.5%, 1.5%, and 7.8%, respectively. In carriers, ARIA-E occurred in 21.2% in the 0.5 mg/kg group, and symptomatic ARIA-E occurred in 2.4%. The clinical severity of ARIA-E in those patients in whom it was detected during the study was mild in 57.1%, 61.3%, and 50.0% of cases in 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 mg/kg noncarriers respectively, and in 73.8% of cases in 0.5 mg/kg carriers. Vascular risk factors did not appear to increase susceptibility to ARIA-E. Rate of decline in cognition and function measured by changes in ADAS-Cog/11 and DAD total scores did not meaningfully differ in patients with ARIA-E versus those without ARIA-E. Extent of cognitive decline was similar over all visit intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, ARIA-E was mild and asymptomatic. ARIA-E did not demonstrate clinically meaningful acute or chronic impact on cognition or function.Registration: NCT00574132 (Bapineuzumab-301), NCT00575055 (Bapineuzumab-302).

A Patient-Focused Technology-Enabled Program Improves Outcomes in Primary Total Hip and Knee Replacement Surgery.

BACKGROUND: A patient-engagement and pathway-management program for patients undergoing primary total hip and knee replacement was evaluated. Health-service and multimedia features supported by technology were integrated with existing enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) practices. The primary objective was to demonstrate the impact on length of stay. The secondary objective was to assess the impact on clinical, patient-focused, and financial outcomes. METHODS: Two thousand and eighty consecutive patients undergoing primary total hip replacement (n = 1,034) and total knee replacement (n = 1,046) were classified into "pre-program" (retrospectively assessed [n = 1,038]) and "program" (prospectively assessed [n = 1,042]) cohorts. Patients in the program cohort were subdivided according to those who were eligible for criteria-based outreach support (OS) (n = 401) and those who were ineligible for this service (NOS) (n = 641). Clinical outcomes were assessed for all patients, and patient-focused outcomes were assessed for a subset (n = 223). RESULTS: The mean reduction in length of stay ranged from 20% (1.2 days) to 42% (2.5 days) following total hip replacement and from 9% (0.6 day) to 31% (2 days) following total knee replacement (p < 0.001). Clinical outcomes (readmissions, complications, emergency department re-attendance rates) were not significantly negatively impacted. The Oxford Hip Score had numerically larger improvement after total hip replacement in the OS group than in the pre-program group (4.1-point increase), and the Oxford Knee Score had numerically larger improvement after total knee replacement in the NOS group than in the pre-program group (0.8-point increase). The patients in the program cohort (either OS or NOS) rated overall health gain as higher than those in the pre-program cohort (gain in numerical rating scale, 1.4 points for patients managed with total hip replacement, 0.6 points for patients managed with total knee replacement). Older patients and those with higher comorbidity indices benefited most with respect to length of stay and multiple clinical outcomes. Patient experience was significantly improved across domains (p < 0.001 to p = 0.003). Potential savings for patients managed with total hip replacement (£401.64 [$267.76] per patient) exceeded estimated program charges of £50 [$33.33] to £60 [$40] per patient, whereas the potential savings for patients managed with total knee replacement (£76.67 [$51.11] per patient) were sufficient to achieve a reduction of total system costs. CONCLUSIONS: Technology-enabled programs may deliver enhanced care at lower costs for patients undergoing lower-limb arthroplasty. Shorter durations of inpatient stay without a negative impact on clinical outcomes and improved patient-focused outcomes and experience can deliver substantial value that can be especially beneficial for older patients and those with greater medical complexity. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Therapeutic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Central Review of Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities in Two Phase III Clinical Trials of Bapineuzumab in Mild-To-Moderate Alzheimer's Disease Patients.

BACKGROUND: Amyloid-related imaging abnormalities (ARIA) consist of ARIA-E (with effusion or edema) and ARIA-H (hemosiderin deposits [HDs]). OBJECTIVES: To address accurate ascertainment of ARIA identification, a final magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reading was performed on patients with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease randomized to bapineuzumab IV or placebo during two Phase III trials (APOE ɛ4 allele carriers or noncarriers). METHODS: Final MRI central review consisted of a systematic sequential locked, adjudicated read in 1,331 APOE ɛ4 noncarriers and 1,121 carriers by independent neuroradiologists. Assessment of ARIA-E, ARIA-H, intracerebral hemorrhages, and age-related white matter changes is described. RESULTS: In the Final Read, treatment-emergent ARIA-E were identified in 242 patients including 76 additional cases not noted previously in real time. Overall, incidence proportion of ARIA-E was higher in carriers (active 21.2%; placebo 1.1%) than in noncarriers (pooled active 11.3%; placebo 0.6%), and was more often identified in homozygote APOE ɛ4 carriers than heterozygotes (34.5% versus 16.9%). Incidence rate of ARIA-E increased with increased dose in noncarriers. Frequency of ARIA-E first episodes was highest after the first and second bapineuzumab infusion and declined after repeated infusions. Incidence of total HDs <10 mm (cerebral microhemorrhages) was higher in active groups versus placebo. CONCLUSION: ARIA was detected more often on MRI scans when every scan was reviewed by trained neuroradiologists and results adjudicated. There was increased incidence of ARIA-E in bapineuzumab-treated carriers who had a microhemorrhage at baseline. ARIA-E was a risk factor for incident ARIA-H and late onset ARIA-E was milder radiologically. Age-related white matter changes did not progress during the study.

A Phase II, Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Study of Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Biomarker Results of Subcutaneous Bapineuzumab in Patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease.

BACKGROUND: Bapineuzumab, a humanized monoclonal antibody, targets amyloid-ß (Aß1-40/1 -42) that is believed to play a key role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer disease (AD). OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of monthly subcutaneous (SC) bapineuzumab versus placebo on cerebral amyloid signal in amyloid-positive patients with mild to moderate AD. The incidence of amyloid-related imaging abnormalities-edema/effusion (ARIA-E), pharmacokinetics, pharmacodynamics, immunogenicity, and other safety aspects of bapineuzumab were also evaluated. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind study, 146 patients were randomized (1 : 1:1 : 1) to SC bapineuzumab 2, 7, or 20 mg/month or placebo. Lack of efficacy of intravenous (IV) bapineuzumab in Phase III studies led to truncation of the treatment duration from 24 months to 12 months. Primary endpoint: change from baseline to month 12 in brain amyloid signal as measured by standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) using florbetapir positron emission tomography (PET). RESULTS: Florbetapir PET SUVR decreased significantly (p = 0.038) from baseline to month 12 for the bapineuzumab 7 mg/month group only; reductions versus placebo were not significant for any dosage. One patient each in bapineuzumab 2 mg/month and 20 mg/month groups had ARIA-E. The percentages of patients with treatment-emergent adverse events were similar in placebo (77.8%) and bapineuzumab 2 mg/month (78.4%) group, but higher in 7 mg/month (94.4%) and 20 mg/month (89.2%) groups. CONCLUSION: Bapineuzumab SC once-monthly did not demonstrate significant treatment difference over placebo on cerebral amyloid signal at one year but was well-tolerated. There was less ARIA-E than had been expected based on prior experience with comparable exposure on IV bapineuzumab.

Changes in Brain Volume with Bapineuzumab in Mild to Moderate Alzheimer's Disease.

BACKGROUND: Bapineuzumab, an anti-amyloid-ß monoclonal antibody, was evaluated in two placebo-controlled trials in APOE*ɛ4 carriers and noncarriers, respectively, with Alzheimer's disease. OBJECTIVES: A volumetric magnetic resonance imaging substudy was performed to determine if bapineuzumab altered brain volume rate of change. METHODS: Bapineuzumab dosages included 0.5 mg/kg in carriers and 0.5 or 1.0 mg/kg in noncarriers, every 13 weeks for 78 weeks. Volumetric outcomes included annualized brain, ventricular, and mean hippocampal boundary shift integrals (BBSI; VBSI; HBSI) up to Week 71. Treatment differences were estimated using mixed models for repeated measures. RESULTS: For BBSI and HBSI, there were no significant treatment-related differences within either study, but, compared to pooled carriers and noncarriers receiving placebo, noncarriers receiving1.0 mg/kg bapineuzumab had greater increases in these measures. Bapineuzumab-treated patients showed significantly greater VBSI rates compared with placebo for 0.5 mg/kg in carriers and 1.0 mg/kg (but not 0.5 mg/kg) in noncarriers. CONCLUSIONS: Bapineuzumab produced an increase in ventricular volume compared with placebo. Etiology for this increase is unclear but may be related to amyloid-ß clearance or its consequences.

Amyloid-ß 11C-PiB-PET imaging results from 2 randomized bapineuzumab phase 3 AD trials.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of bapineuzumab on brain ß-amyloid (Aß) burden using (11)C-Pittsburgh compound B ((11)C-PiB)-PET. METHODS: Two phase 3 clinical trials, 1 each in apolipoprotein APOE ε4 carriers and noncarriers, were conducted in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer disease dementia. Bapineuzumab, an anti-Aß monoclonal antibody, or placebo, was administered by IV infusion every 13 weeks for 78 weeks. PET substudies assessed change in brain fibrillar Aß over 71 weeks using an (11)C-PiB-PET standardized uptake value ratio (SUVr) global cortical average (GCA) comprising the average SUVr from 5 cortical regions of interest with cerebellar gray matter as the reference region. RESULTS: A total of 115 carriers and 39 noncarriers were analyzed. The difference (δ) in mean baseline to 71 week change in (11)C-PiB-PET GCA between bapineuzumab and placebo was significant in carriers (0.5 mg/kg vs placebo δ = -0.101; p = 0.004) and in pooled analyses of both carriers and noncarriers (0.5 mg/kg vs placebo δ = -0.068; p = 0.027; 1.0 mg/kg vs placebo δ = -0.133; p = 0.028) but not in the noncarrier trial separately. Analyses by individual region of interest and in mild disease yielded findings similar to the main trial results. CONCLUSIONS: The (11)C-PiB-PET imaging results demonstrated reduction of fibrillar Aß accumulation in patients with Alzheimer disease treated with bapineuzumab; however, as no clinical benefit was observed, the findings are consistent with the hypotheses that bapineuzumab may not have been initiated early enough in the disease course, the doses were insufficient, or the most critical Aß species were inadequately targeted.

Effects of meal size on the release of GLP-1 and PYY after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery in obese subjects with or without type 2 diabetes.

Changes in gastrointestinal peptide release may play an important role in improving glucose control and reducing body weight following Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), but the impact of low caloric intake on gut peptide release post-surgery has not been well characterized. The purpose of this study was to assess the relationships between low caloric intake and gut peptide release and how they were altered by RYGB. Obese females including ten normoglycemic (ON) and ten with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) (OD) were studied before, 1 week, and 3 months after RYGB. Nine lean, normoglycemic women were studied for comparison. Subjects were given three separate mixed meal challenges (MMCs; 75, 150, and 300 kcal). Plasma glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and peptide YY (PYY) were analyzed. Prior to surgery, only minimal increases in GLP-1 and PYY were observed in response to the MMCs. After surgery, the peak GLP-1 concentration was progressively elevated in response to increasing meal sizes. The meal sizes had a statistically significant impact on elevation of GLP-1 incremental areas under the curve (ΔAUC) in both ON and OD at 1 week and 3 months post-surgery visits (p < 0.05 for all comparisons). The PYY ∆AUC was also significantly increased in a meal size-dependent manner in both ON and OD at both post-surgery visits (p < 0.05 for all comparisons). Meal sizes as small as 75-300 kcal, which cause minimal stimulation in GLP-1 or PYY release in the subjects before RYGB, are sufficient to provide statistically significant, meal size-dependent increases in the peptides post-RYGB both acutely and after meaningful weight loss occurred.