Methods for mediation analysis with high-dimensional DNA methylation data: Possible choices and comparisons.

Epigenetic researchers often evaluate DNA methylation as a potential mediator of the effect of social/environmental exposures on a health outcome. Modern statistical methods for jointly evaluating many mediators have not been widely adopted. We compare seven methods for high-dimensional mediation analysis with continuous outcomes through both diverse simulations and analysis of DNAm data from a large multi-ethnic cohort in the United States, while providing an R package for their seamless implementation and adoption. Among the considered choices, the best-performing methods for detecting active mediators in simulations are the Bayesian sparse linear mixed model (BSLMM) and high-dimensional mediation analysis (HDMA); while the preferred methods for estimating the global mediation effect are high-dimensional linear mediation analysis (HILMA) and principal component mediation analysis (PCMA). We provide guidelines for epigenetic researchers on choosing the best method in practice and offer suggestions for future methodological development.

Uncovering associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 Severity: A polygenic risk score approach across three large biobanks.

OBJECTIVE: To overcome the limitations associated with the collection and curation of COVID-19 outcome data in biobanks, this study proposes the use of polygenic risk scores (PRS) as reliable proxies of COVID-19 severity across three large biobanks: the Michigan Genomics Initiative (MGI), UK Biobank (UKB), and NIH All of Us. The goal is to identify associations between pre-existing conditions and COVID-19 severity. METHODS: Drawing on a sample of more than 500,000 individuals from the three biobanks, we conducted a phenome-wide association study (PheWAS) to identify associations between a PRS for COVID-19 severity, derived from a genome-wide association study on COVID-19 hospitalization, and clinical pre-existing, pre-pandemic phenotypes. We performed cohort-specific PRS PheWAS and a subsequent fixed-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: The current study uncovered 23 pre-existing conditions significantly associated with the COVID-19 severity PRS in cohort-specific analyses, of which 21 were observed in the UKB cohort and two in the MGI cohort. The meta-analysis yielded 27 significant phenotypes predominantly related to obesity, metabolic disorders, and cardiovascular conditions. After adjusting for body mass index, several clinical phenotypes, such as hypercholesterolemia and gastrointestinal disorders, remained associated with an increased risk of hospitalization following COVID-19 infection. CONCLUSION: By employing PRS as a proxy for COVID-19 severity, we corroborated known risk factors and identified novel associations between pre-existing clinical phenotypes and COVID-19 severity. Our study highlights the potential value of using PRS when actual outcome data may be limited or inadequate for robust analyses.

Methods for large-scale single mediator hypothesis testing: Possible choices and comparisons.

Mediation hypothesis testing for a large number of mediators is challenging due to the composite structure of the null hypothesis, H 0 : α ß = 0 ${H}_{0}:\alpha \beta =0$ ( α $\alpha $ : effect of the exposure on the mediator after adjusting for confounders; ß $\beta $ : effect of the mediator on the outcome after adjusting for exposure and confounders). In this paper, we reviewed three classes of methods for large-scale one at a time mediation hypothesis testing. These methods are commonly used for continuous outcomes and continuous mediators assuming there is no exposure-mediator interaction so that the product α ß $\alpha \beta $ has a causal interpretation as the indirect effect. The first class of methods ignores the impact of different structures under the composite null hypothesis, namely, (1) α = 0 , ß ≠ 0 $\alpha =0,\beta \ne 0$ ; (2) α ≠ 0 , ß = 0 $\alpha \ne 0,\beta =0$ ; and (3) α = ß = 0 $\alpha =\beta =0$ . The second class of methods weights the reference distribution under each case of the null to form a mixture reference distribution. The third class constructs a composite test statistic using the three p values obtained under each case of the null so that the reference distribution of the composite statistic is approximately U ( 0 , 1 ) $U(0,1)$ . In addition to these existing methods, we developed the Sobel-comp method belonging to the second class, which uses a corrected mixture reference distribution for Sobel's test statistic. We performed extensive simulation studies to compare all six methods belonging to these three classes in terms of the false positive rates (FPRs) under the null hypothesis and the true positive rates under the alternative hypothesis. We found that the second class of methods which uses a mixture reference distribution could best maintain the FPRs at the nominal level under the null hypothesis and had the greatest true positive rates under the alternative hypothesis. We applied all methods to study the mediation mechanism of DNA methylation sites in the pathway from adult socioeconomic status to glycated hemoglobin level using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). We provide guidelines for choosing the optimal mediation hypothesis testing method in practice and develop an R package medScan available on the CRAN for implementing all the six methods.

Optimal diagnostic test allocation strategy during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond.

Timely diagnostic testing for active SARS-CoV-2 viral infections is key to controlling the spread of the virus and preventing severe disease. A central public health challenge is defining test allocation strategies with limited resources. In this paper, we provide a mathematical framework for defining an optimal strategy for allocating viral diagnostic tests. The framework accounts for imperfect test results, selective testing in certain high-risk patient populations, practical constraints in terms of budget and/or total number of available tests, and the purpose of testing. Our method is not only useful for detecting infections, but can also be used for long-time surveillance to detect new outbreaks. In our proposed approach, tests can be allocated across population strata defined by symptom severity and other patient characteristics, allowing the test allocation plan to prioritize higher risk patient populations. We illustrate our framework using historical data from the initial wave of the COVID-19 outbreak in New York City. We extend our proposed method to address the challenge of allocating two different types of diagnostic tests with different costs and accuracy, for example, the RT-PCR and the rapid antigen test (RAT), under budget constraints. We show how this latter framework can be useful to reopening of college campuses where university administrators are challenged with finite resources for community surveillance. We provide a R Shiny web application allowing users to explore test allocation strategies across a variety of pandemic scenarios. This work can serve as a useful tool for guiding public health decision-making at a community level and adapting testing plans to different stages of an epidemic. The conceptual framework has broader relevance beyond the current COVID-19 pandemic.

eDNA Metabarcoding Reveals the Species-Area Relationship of Amphibians on the Zhoushan Archipelago.

The species-area relationship is important for understanding species diversity patterns at spatial scales, but few studies have examined the relationship using environmental DNA (eDNA) techniques. We investigated amphibian diversity on 21 islands of the Zhoushan Archipelago and nearby mainland areas in China using the combination of eDNA metabarcoding and the traditional line transect method (TLTM) and identified the species-area relationship for amphibians on the islands. The mean detection probability of eDNA is 0.54, while the mean detection probability of TLTM is 0.24. The eDNA metabarcoding detected eight amphibian species on the islands and nine species in the mainland areas, compared with seven species on the islands and nine species in the mainland areas that were identified by TLTM. Amphibian richness on the islands increased with island area and habitat diversity. The species-area relationship for amphibians in the archipelago was formulated as the power function (S = 0.47A0.21) or exponential function (S = 2.59 + 2.41 (logA)). Our results suggested that eDNA metabarcoding is more sensitive for the detection of amphibian species. The combined use of eDNA metabarcoding and the traditional line transect method may optimize the survey results for amphibians.

Pathogenic selection promotes adaptive immune variations against serious bottlenecks in early invasions of bullfrogs.

Adaptive genetic variations are key for understanding evolutionary processes influencing invasions. However, we have limited knowledge on how adaptive genetic diversity in invasive species responds to new pathogenic environments. Here, we compared variations in immune major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class-II ß gene and neutral loci in relation to pathogenic chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) infection across invasive and native populations of American bullfrog between China and United States (US). Chinese invasive populations show a 60% reduction in neutral cytb variations relative to US native populations, and there were similar MHC variation and functional diversity between them. One MHC allele private to China was under recent positive selection and associated with decreased Bd infection, partly explaining the lower Bd prevalence for Chinese populations than for native US populations. These results suggest that pathogen-mediated selection favors adaptive MHC variations and functional diversity maintenance against serious bottlenecks during the early invasions (within 15 generations) of bullfrogs.

Methods for Mediation Analysis with High-Dimensional DNA Methylation Data: Possible Choices and Comparison.

Epigenetic researchers often evaluate DNA methylation as a mediator between social/environmental exposures and disease, but modern statistical methods for jointly evaluating many mediators have not been widely adopted. We compare seven methods for high-dimensional mediation analysis with continuous outcomes through both diverse simulations and analysis of DNAm data from a large national cohort in the United States, while providing an R package for their implementation. Among the considered choices, the best-performing methods for detecting active mediators in simulations are the Bayesian sparse linear mixed model by Song et al. (2020) and high-dimensional mediation analysis by Gao et al. (2019); while the superior methods for estimating the global mediation effect are high-dimensional linear mediation analysis by Zhou et al. (2021) and principal component mediation analysis by Huang and Pan (2016). We provide guidelines for epigenetic researchers on choosing the best method in practice and offer suggestions for future methodological development.

Quantifying global colonization pressures of alien vertebrates from wildlife trade.

The global trade in live wildlife elevates the risk of biological invasions by increasing colonization pressure (the number of alien species introduced to an area). Yet, our understanding of species traded as aliens remains limited. We created a comprehensive global database on live terrestrial vertebrate trade and use it to investigate the number of traded alien species, and correlates of establishment richness for aliens. We identify 7,780 species involved in this trade globally. Approximately 85.7% of these species are traded as aliens, and 12.2% of aliens establish populations. Countries with greater trading power, higher incomes, and larger human populations import more alien species. These countries, along with island nations, emerge as hotspots for establishment richness of aliens. Colonization pressure and insularity consistently promote establishment richness across countries, while socio-economic factors impact specific taxa. Governments must prioritize policies to mitigate the release or escape of traded animals and protect global biosecurity.

Variable selection with multiply-imputed datasets: choosing between stacked and grouped methods.

Penalized regression methods are used in many biomedical applications for variable selection and simultaneous coefficient estimation. However, missing data complicates the implementation of these methods, particularly when missingness is handled using multiple imputation. Applying a variable selection algorithm on each imputed dataset will likely lead to different sets of selected predictors. This paper considers a general class of penalized objective functions which, by construction, force selection of the same variables across imputed datasets. By pooling objective functions across imputations, optimization is then performed jointly over all imputed datasets rather than separately for each dataset. We consider two objective function formulations that exist in the literature, which we will refer to as "stacked" and "grouped" objective functions. Building on existing work, we (a) derive and implement efficient cyclic coordinate descent and majorization-minimization optimization algorithms for continuous and binary outcome data, (b) incorporate adaptive shrinkage penalties, (c) compare these methods through simulation, and (d) develop an R package miselect. Simulations demonstrate that the "stacked" approaches are more computationally efficient and have better estimation and selection properties. We apply these methods to data from the University of Michigan ALS Patients Biorepository aiming to identify the association between environmental pollutants and ALS risk. Supplementary materials are available online.

DNA Methylation Mediates the Association Between Individual and Neighborhood Social Disadvantage and Cardiovascular Risk Factors.

Low socioeconomic status (SES) and living in a disadvantaged neighborhood are associated with poor cardiovascular health. Multiple lines of evidence have linked DNA methylation to both cardiovascular risk factors and social disadvantage indicators. However, limited research has investigated the role of DNA methylation in mediating the associations of individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage with multiple cardiovascular risk factors in large, multi-ethnic, population-based cohorts. We examined whether disadvantage at the individual level (childhood and adult SES) and neighborhood level (summary neighborhood SES as assessed by Census data and social environment as assessed by perceptions of aesthetic quality, safety, and social cohesion) were associated with 11 cardiovascular risk factors including measures of obesity, diabetes, lipids, and hypertension in 1,154 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). For significant associations, we conducted epigenome-wide mediation analysis to identify methylation sites mediating the relationship between individual/neighborhood disadvantage and cardiovascular risk factors using the JT-Comp method that assesses sparse mediation effects under a composite null hypothesis. In models adjusting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, smoking, medication use, and genetic principal components of ancestry, epigenetic mediation was detected for the associations of adult SES with body mass index (BMI), insulin, and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), as well as for the association between neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and HDL-C at FDR q < 0.05. The 410 CpG mediators identified for the SES-BMI association were enriched for CpGs associated with gene expression (expression quantitative trait methylation loci, or eQTMs), and corresponding genes were enriched in antigen processing and presentation pathways. For cardiovascular risk factors other than BMI, most of the epigenetic mediators lost significance after controlling for BMI. However, 43 methylation sites showed evidence of mediating the neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and HDL-C association after BMI adjustment. The identified mediators were enriched for eQTMs, and corresponding genes were enriched in inflammatory and apoptotic pathways. Our findings support the hypothesis that DNA methylation acts as a mediator between individual- and neighborhood-level disadvantage and cardiovascular risk factors, and shed light on the potential underlying epigenetic pathways. Future studies are needed to fully elucidate the biological mechanisms that link social disadvantage to poor cardiovascular health.

Predictions, role of interventions and effects of a historic national lockdown in India's response to the COVID-19 pandemic: data science call to arms.

With only 536 cases and 11 fatalities, India took the historic decision of a 21-day national lockdown on March 25. The lockdown was first extended to May 3 soon after the analysis of this paper was completed, and then to May 18 while this paper was being revised. In this paper, we use a Bayesian extension of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed (eSIR) model designed for intervention forecasting to study the short- and long-term impact of an initial 21-day lockdown on the total number of COVID-19 infections in India compared to other less severe non-pharmaceutical interventions. We compare effects of hypothetical durations of lockdown on reducing the number of active and new infections. We find that the lockdown, if implemented correctly, can reduce the total number of cases in the short term, and buy India invaluable time to prepare its healthcare and disease-monitoring system. Our analysis shows we need to have some measures of suppression in place after the lockdown for increased benefit (as measured by reduction in the number of cases). A longer lockdown between 42-56 days is preferable to substantially "flatten the curve" when compared to 21-28 days of lockdown. Our models focus solely on projecting the number of COVID-19 infections and, thus, inform policymakers about one aspect of this multi-faceted decision-making problem. We conclude with a discussion on the pivotal role of increased testing, reliable and transparent data, proper uncertainty quantification, accurate interpretation of forecasting models, reproducible data science methods and tools that can enable data-driven policymaking during a pandemic. Our software products are available at covind19.org.