Interventions for avian influenza A (H5N1) risk management in live bird market networks.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 is endemic in Asia, with live bird trade as a major disease transmission pathway. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in northern Vietnam to investigate the structure of the live bird market (LBM) contact network and the implications for virus spread. Based on the movements of traders between LBMs, weighted and directed networks were constructed and used for social network analysis and individual-based modeling. Most LBMs were connected to one another, suggesting that the LBM network may support large-scale disease spread. Because of cross-border trade, it also may promote transboundary virus circulation. However, opportunities for disease control do exist. The implementation of thorough, daily disinfection of the market environment as well as of traders' vehicles and equipment in only a small number of hubs can disconnect the network dramatically, preventing disease spread. These targeted interventions would be an effective alternative to the current policy of a complete ban of LBMs in some areas. Some LBMs that have been banned still are very active, and they likely have a substantial impact on disease dynamics, exhibiting the highest levels of susceptibility and infectiousness. The number of trader visits to markets, information that can be collected quickly and easily, may be used to identify LBMs suitable for implementing interventions. This would not require prior knowledge of the force of infection, for which laboratory-confirmed surveillance would be necessary. These findings are of particular relevance for policy development in resource-scarce settings.

Development and application of a vaccination planning tool for avian influenza.

The vaccination planning tool for avian influenza supports evidence-based planning and preparedness for vaccinating poultry at national and regional levels. This study describes the development, testing, and application of a vaccination planning tool for H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) used in two South Asian countries. The tool consists of eight planning clusters, 37 planning elements, and 303 referenced planning criteria. Both countries attained a score of 52% among planning clusters as a measure of preparedness. The highest and lowest planning cluster scores included vaccination strategies and financial readiness, respectively. The comprehensive vaccination program was identified as the most-useful planning cluster for assessing preparedness, and 86% of participants indicated that the objectives of the planning tool were achieved. Based on these results, the planning tool provides a structured approach for decision makers to develop their national vaccination program for HPAI as part of an overall strategy for the progressive reduction and control of endemic influenza viruses in poultry.

A Bayesian approach to quantifying the effects of mass poultry vaccination upon the spatial and temporal dynamics of H5N1 in Northern Vietnam.

Outbreaks of H5N1 in poultry in Vietnam continue to threaten the livelihoods of those reliant on poultry production whilst simultaneously posing a severe public health risk given the high mortality associated with human infection. Authorities have invested significant resources in order to control these outbreaks. Of particular interest is the decision, following a second wave of outbreaks, to move from a "stamping out" approach to the implementation of a nationwide mass vaccination campaign. Outbreaks which occurred around this shift in policy provide a unique opportunity to evaluate the relative effectiveness of these approaches and to help other countries make informed judgements when developing control strategies. Here we use Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data augmentation techniques to derive the first quantitative estimates of the impact of the vaccination campaign on the spread of outbreaks of H5N1 in northern Vietnam. We find a substantial decrease in the transmissibility of infection between communes following vaccination. This was coupled with a significant increase in the time from infection to detection of the outbreak. Using a cladistic approach we estimated that, according to the posterior mean effect of pruning the reconstructed epidemic tree, two thirds of the outbreaks in 2007 could be attributed to this decrease in the rate of reporting. The net impact of these two effects was a less intense but longer-lasting wave and, whilst not sufficient to prevent the sustained spread of outbreaks, an overall reduction in the likelihood of the transmission of infection between communes. These findings highlight the need for more effectively targeted surveillance in order to help ensure that the effective coverage achieved by mass vaccination is converted into a reduction in the likelihood of outbreaks occurring which is sufficient to control the spread of H5N1 in Vietnam.

Identifying live bird markets with the potential to act as reservoirs of avian influenza A (H5N1) virus: a survey in northern Viet Nam and Cambodia.

Wet markets are common in many parts of the world and may promote the emergence, spread and maintenance of livestock pathogens, including zoonoses. A survey was conducted in order to assess the potential of Vietnamese and Cambodian live bird markets (LBMs) to sustain circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus subtype H5N1 (HPAIV H5N1). Thirty Vietnamese and 8 Cambodian LBMs were visited, and structured interviews were conducted with the market managers and 561 Vietnamese and 84 Cambodian traders. Multivariate and cluster analysis were used to construct a typology of traders based on their poultry management practices. As a result of those practices and large poultry surplus (unsold poultry reoffered for sale the following day), some poultry traders were shown to promote conditions favorable for perpetuating HPAIV H5N1 in LBMs. More than 80% of these traders operated in LBMs located in the most densely populated areas, Ha Noi and Phnom Penh. The profiles of sellers operating at a given LBM could be reliably predicted using basic information about the location and type of market. Consequently, LBMs with the largest combination of risk factors for becoming virus reservoirs could be easily identified, potentially allowing control strategies to be appropriately targeted. These findings are of particular relevance to resource-scarce settings with extensively developed LBM systems, commonly found in South-East Asia.

Genome analysis linking recent European and African influenza (H5N1) viruses.

To better understand the ecology and epidemiology of the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in its transcontinental spread, we sequenced and analyzed the complete genomes of 36 recent influenza A (H5N1) viruses collected from birds in Europe, northern Africa, and southeastern Asia. These sequences, among the first complete genomes of influenza (H5N1) viruses outside Asia, clearly depict the lineages now infecting wild and domestic birds in Europe and Africa and show the relationships among these isolates and other strains affecting both birds and humans. The isolates fall into 3 distinct lineages, 1 of which contains all known non-Asian isolates. This new Euro-African lineage, which was the cause of several recent (2006) fatal human infections in Egypt and Iraq, has been introduced at least 3 times into the European-African region and has split into 3 distinct, independently evolving sublineages. One isolate provides evidence that 2 of these sublineages have recently reassorted.