Characteristics and Outcomes of 360 Consecutive COVID-19 Patients Discharged From the Emergency Department With Supplemental Oxygen.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To describe characteristics and outcomes of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients with new supplemental oxygen requirements discharged from a large public urban emergency department (ED) with supplemental oxygen. METHODS: This observational case series describes the characteristics and outcomes of 360 consecutive COVID-19 patients with new supplemental oxygen requirements discharged from a large urban public ED between April 2020 and March 2021 with supplemental oxygen. Primary outcomes included 30-day survival and 30-day survival without unscheduled inpatient admission. Demographic and clinical data were collected through a structured chart review. RESULTS: Among 360 patients with COVID-19 discharged from the ED with supplemental oxygen, 30-day survival was 97.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 95.3 to 98.9%; n=351), and 30-day survival without unscheduled admission was 81.1% (95% CI 76.7 to 85.0%; n=292). A sensitivity analysis incorporating worst-case-scenario for 12 patients without complete follow-up 30 days after index visit yields 30-day survival of 95.5% (95% CI 92.5 to 97.2%; n=343), and 30-day survival without unscheduled admission of 78.9% (95% CI 74.3 to 83.0%; n=284). Among study patients, 32.2% (n=116) had a nadir ED oxygen saturation of <90%, among these 30-day survival was 97.4% (95% CI 92.6 to 99.4%; n=113), and 30-day survival without unscheduled admission was 76.7% (95% CI 68.8 to 84.1%; n=89). CONCLUSION: COVID-19 patients with new supplemental oxygen requirements discharged from the ED had survival comparable to COVID-19 ED patients with mild exertional hypoxia treated with supplemental oxygen in other settings, and this held true when the analysis was restricted to patients with nadir ED index visit oxygen saturations <90%. Discharge of select COVID-19 patients with supplemental oxygen from the ED may provide a viable alternative to hospitalization, particularly when inpatient capacity is limited.

Impact of Urgent Care Openings on Emergency Department Visits to Two Academic Medical Centers Within an Integrated Health Care System.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: The effect of urgent cares on local emergency department (ED) patient volumes is presently unknown. In this paper, we aimed to assess the change in low-acuity ED utilization at 2 academic medical centers in relation to patient proximity to an affiliated urgent care. METHODS: We created a geospatial database of ED visits occurring between April 2016 and March 2018 to 2 academic medical centers in an integrated health care system, geocoded by patient home address. We used logistic regression to characterize the relationship between the likelihood of patients visiting the ED for a low-acuity condition, based on ED discharge diagnosis, and urgent care center proximity, defined as living within 1 mile of an open urgent care center, for each of the academic medical centers in the system, adjusting for spatial, temporal, and patient factors. RESULTS: We identified a statistically significant reduction in the likelihood of ED visits for low-acuity conditions by patients living within 1 mile of an urgent care center at 1 of the 2 academic medical centers, with an adjusted odds ratio of 0.87 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 0.98). There was, however, no statistically significant reduction at the other affiliated academic medical center. Further analysis showed a statistically significant temporal relationship between time since urgent care center opening and likelihood of a low-acuity ED visit, with approximately a 1% decrease in the odds of a low-acuity visit for every month that the proximal urgent care center was open (odds ratio 0.99; 95% confidence interval 0.985 to 0.997). CONCLUSION: Although further research is needed to assess the factors driving urgent care centers' variable influence on low-acuity ED use, these findings suggest that in similar settings urgent care center development may be an effective strategy for health systems hoping to decrease ED utilization for low-acuity conditions at academic medical centers.

Neighborhood-level stroke hot spots within major United States cities.

OBJECTIVE: Identifying communities at high risk of stroke is an important step in improving systems of stroke care. Stroke is known to show spatial clustering at the state and county levels, but it is not known if clusters are present within city boundaries. METHODS: We performed a geospatial analysis of the prevalence of stroke within 500 major cities in the United States using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 500 Cities Project. For each city, we calculated the Moran's I statistic, which looks for evidence of spatial clustering, and used Monte Carlo simulation to assess for clustering significance. RESULTS: The mean overall crude prevalence of self-reported history of stroke at the city level was 2.8% (IQR 2.4-3.2%). Monte Carlo simulations of spatial patterns of stroke were successfully performed for 497 cities, of which 136 (27.3%) showed significant spatial clustering at the neighborhood level. All nine cities with more than one million inhabitants in 2010 showed significant spatial clustering. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to demonstrate that stroke shows clustering at the neighborhood level within many major cities in the United States and within all of the largest cities. Understanding where stroke clusters exist within cities can form the basis of optimizing emergency medical services deployment and improving systems of stroke care.

Nontargeted Diabetes Screening in a Navajo Nation Emergency Department.

We developed a nontargeted diabetes screening program in a rural Indian Health Service emergency department in Shiprock, New Mexico to measure the proportion of previously undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes, and to assess glycemic control among patients with known disease. Of 924 patients screened in the emergency department between May and July 2017, 28.8% screened positive for previously undiagnosed diabetes or prediabetes; among patients with known disease, the median hemoglobin A1c was 8.2%. Of the newly identified patients, 54.9% attended follow-up.

Closing the gap: Improving access to trauma care in New Mexico (2007-2017).

BACKGROUND: Trauma is a major cause of death and disability in the United States, and significant disparities exist in access to care, especially in non-urban settings. From 2007 to 2017 New Mexico expanded its trauma system by focusing on building capacity at the hospital level. METHODS: We conducted a geospatial analysis at the census block level of access to a trauma center in New Mexico within 1 h by ground or air transportation for the years 2007 and 2017. We then examined the characteristics of the population with access to care. A multiple logistic regression model assessed for remaining disparities in access to trauma centers in 2017. RESULTS: The proportion of the population in New Mexico with access to a trauma center within 1 h increased from 73.8% in 2007 to 94.8% in 2017. The largest increases in access to trauma care within 1 h were found among American Indian/Alaska Native populations (AI/AN) (35.2%) and people living in suburban areas (62.9%). In 2017, the most rural communities (aOR 58.0), communities on an AI/AN reservation (aOR 25.6), communities with a high proportion of Hispanic/Latino persons (aOR 8.4), and a high proportion of elderly persons (aOR 3.2) were more likely to lack access to a trauma center within 1 h. CONCLUSION: The New Mexico trauma system expansion significantly increased access to trauma care within 1 h for most of New Mexico, but some notable disparities remain. Barriers persist for very rural parts of the state and for its sizable American Indian community.

Feasibility of Bystander Administration of Public-Access Naloxone for Opioid Overdose.

OBJECTIVE: Pre-stationing naloxone, a competitive antagonist that can reverse the effects of opioid overdose, in public spaces may expedite antidote delivery. Our study aimed to determine the feasibility of bystander-assisted overdose treatment using pre-stationed naloxone. METHODS: Convenience sample of bystanders in Cambridge, Massachusetts in April 2017. Subjects assisted a simulated patient described as unconscious. Subjects interacted with simulated EMS dispatch to locate a nearby box, unlock it, and administer naloxone. RESULTS: Fifty participants completed the simulation. Median time from simulated ambulance dispatch to naloxone administration was 189 seconds, and from arrival at patient side to administration 61 seconds. All but one participant (98.0%) correctly administered naloxone. Subjects' comfort with administration and willingness to provide medical care increased from before to after the trial. Comfort in administering naloxone varied significantly with level of previous training prior to, but not following, study participation. CONCLUSIONS: Bystanders are willing and able to access pre-stationed naloxone and administer it to a simulated patient in a public space. Public access naloxone stations may be a useful tool to reduce time to naloxone administration, particularly in areas where opioid overdoses are clustered.

Fetal hemoglobin in sickle cell anemia: genome-wide association studies suggest a regulatory region in the 5' olfactory receptor gene cluster.

In a genome-wide association study of 848 blacks with sickle cell anemia, we identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with fetal hemoglobin concentration. The most significant SNPs in a discovery sample were tested in a replication set of 305 blacks with sickle cell anemia and in subjects with hemoglobin E or beta thalassemia trait from Thailand and Hong Kong. A novel region on chromosome 11 containing olfactory receptor genes OR51B5 and OR51B6 was identified by 6 SNPs (lowest P = 4.7E-08) and validated in the replication set. An additional olfactory receptor gene, OR51B2, was identified by a novel SNP set enrichment analysis. Genome-wide association studies also validated a previously identified SNP (rs766432) in BCL11A, a gene known to affect fetal hemoglobin levels (P = 2.6E-21) and in Thailand and Hong Kong subjects. Elements within the olfactory receptor gene cluster might play a regulatory role in gamma-globin gene expression.

Cognitive load during training for out-of-department emergency responses.

Background: Emergency medicine (EM) physicians sometimes respond to critical events outside the emergency department. To prepare for these complex cases-typically called "rapid responses" (RRs)-EM residents receive simulation-based training involving four practice tasks and three exam tasks during a 1-day session. Cognitive load (CL) theory describes how humans function with limited working memories to perform complex tasks. RRs are expected to generate high levels of CL, but the profile of CL across providers and RR cases is not well understood. In this study, we analyzed resident's CL during RR training. We hypothesized variations in CL across individual and case and that exam cases would cause higher CLs than practice cases. Methods: Residents anonymously self-reported CL levels after each case using the Paas scale, a single-item, 9-point scale from "very, very low CL" to "very, very high CL." To examine case-based differences in CL, data were rescaled by individual residents. "High CL" was defined as a score of 9/9. Results: Among 18 residents participating, CLs ranged from 4 to 9, with median of 7 and interquartile range of 7-8. While many cases showed bell curve-like distributions of CLs, one case-a bleeding tracheostomy-showed a rightward skew reflecting higher levels of CL. No significant difference was found in CL between practice and exam cases. There were 20 reports (16.5%) of "high" CL with variation across residents (0/7 [0%] to 5/6 [83.3%] cases) and across cases (1/18 [5.6%) to 8/18 [44.4%]). Conclusions: The CL that EM residents experienced did show considerable interpersonal and intercase variation, but there was no significant difference between practice and exam cases. These results highlight several questions about how to optimally design future training, including how best to balance low and high CL training cases and which cases may require further training.

Blue light phones as potential locations for deploying public access naloxone kits on a college campus.

Objective Opioid use and the risk of opioid overdose are growing public health concerns for college-aged adults. Naloxone can temporarily reverse opioid overdoses, but only if easily accessible. On most college campuses, "blue light" phones (BLPs)-call boxes topped with a blue light-offer visible access to emergency services. We hypothesized that BLPs would provide potential naloxone access points. Participants: A major university campus in Los Angeles, CA. Methods: BLP locations were obtained using Google Maps, and the area of campus within a set distance to each BLP calculated. To model effects of loss or diversion, we simulated the random loss of various BLPs. Results: Placing naloxone kits at the 59 BLP locations could provide access within 100 m to 91.5% of the campus. With loss of half of the BLPs, campus access remained above 70%. Conclusions: Naloxone at BLP locations could be accessed from almost all campus areas.

Severe sickle cell anemia is associated with increased plasma levels of TNF-R1 and VCAM-1.

Sickle cell anemia (SCA, HBB glu6val) is characterized by multiple complications and a high degree of phenotypic variability: some subjects have only sporadic pain crises and few acute hospitalizations, while others experience multiple serious complications, high levels of morbidity, and accelerated mortality [1]. The tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF-α) signaling pathway plays important roles in inflammation and the immune response; variation in this pathway might be expected to modify the overall severity of SCA through the pathway's effects on the vascular endothelium [2,3]. We examined plasma biomarkers of TNF-α activity and endothelial cell activation for associations with SCA severity in 24 adults (12 mild, 12 severe). Two biomarkers, tumor necrosis factor-α receptor-1 (TNF-R1) and vascular cell adhesion molecule-1 (VCAM-1) were significantly higher in subjects with severe SCA. Along with these biomarker differences, we also examined data from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using SCA severity as a disease phenotype, and found evidence of genetic association between disease severity and a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in VCAM1, which codes for VCAM-1, and several SNPs in ARFGEF2, a gene involved in TNF-R1 release [4].

Who Stayed Home Under Safer-at-Home? Impacts of COVID-19 on Volume and Patient-Mix at an Emergency Department.

INTRODUCTION: To describe the impact of COVID-19 on a large, urban emergency department (ED) in Los Angeles, California, we sought to estimate the effect of the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) and "safer-at-home" declaration on ED visits, patient demographics, and diagnosis-mix compared to prior years. METHODS: We used descriptive statistics to compare ED volume and rates of admission for patients presenting to the ED between January and early May of 2018, 2019, and 2020. RESULTS: Immediately after California's "safer-at-home" declaration, ED utilization dropped by 11,000 visits (37%) compared to the same nine weeks in prior years. The drop affected patients regardless of acuity, demographics, or diagnosis. Reductions were observed in the number of patients reporting symptoms often associated with COVID-19 and all other complaints. After the declaration, higher acuity, older, male, Black, uninsured or non-Medicaid, publicly insured, accounted for a disproportionate share of utilization. CONCLUSION: We show an abrupt, discontinuous impact of COVID-19 on ED utilization with a slow return as safer-at-home orders have lifted. It is imperative to determine how this reduction will impact patient outcomes, disease control, and the health of the community in the medium and long terms.

Genetic modifiers of the severity of sickle cell anemia identified through a genome-wide association study.

We conducted a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to discover single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with the severity of sickle cell anemia in 1,265 patients with either "severe" or "mild" disease based on a network model of disease severity. We analyzed data using single SNP analysis and a novel SNP set enrichment analysis (SSEA) developed to discover clusters of associated SNPs. Single SNP analysis discovered 40 SNPs that were strongly associated with sickle cell severity (odds for association >1,000); of the 32 that we could analyze in an independent set of 163 patients, five replicated, eight showed consistent effects although failed to reach statistical significance, whereas 19 did not show any convincing association. Among the replicated associations are SNPs in KCNK6 a K(+) channel gene. SSEA identified 27 genes with a strong enrichment of significant SNPs (P < 10(-6)); 20 were replicated with varying degrees of confidence. Among the novel findings identified by SSEA is the telomere length regulator gene TNKS. These studies are the first to use GWAS to understand the genetic diversity that accounts the phenotypic heterogeneity sickle cell anemia as estimated by an integrated model of severity. Additional validation, resequencing, and functional studies to understand the biology and reveal mechanisms by which candidate genes might have their effects are the future goals of this work.

Location of Violent Crime Relative to Trauma Resources in Detroit: Implications for Community Interventions.

INTRODUCTION: Detroit, Michigan, is among the leading United States cities for per-capita homicide and violent crime. Hospital- and community-based intervention programs could decrease the rate of violent-crime related injury but require a detailed understanding of the locations of violence in the community to be most effective. METHODS: We performed a retrospective geospatial analysis of all violent crimes reported within the city of Detroit from 2009-2015 comparing locations of crimes to locations of major hospitals. We calculated distances between violent crimes and trauma centers, and applied summary spatial statistics. RESULTS: Approximately 1.1 million crimes occurred in Detroit during the study period, including approximately 200,000 violent crimes. The distance between the majority of violent crimes and hospitals was less than five kilometers (3.1 miles). Among violent crimes, the closest hospital was an outlying Level II trauma center 60% of the time. CONCLUSION: Violent crimes in Detroit occur throughout the city, often closest to a Level II trauma center. Understanding geospatial components of violence relative to trauma center resources is important for effective implementation of hospital- and community-based interventions and targeted allocation of resources.

Genome-wide association studies and the genetic dissection of complex traits.

The availability of affordable high throughput technology for parallel genotyping has opened the field of genetics to genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and in the last few years hundreds of articles reporting results of GWAS for a variety of heritable traits have been published. What do these results tell us? Although GWAS have discovered a few hundred reproducible associations, this number is underwhelming in relation to the huge amount of data produced, and challenges the conjecture that common variants may be the genetic causes of common diseases. We argue that the massive amount of genetic data that result from these studies remains largely unexplored and unexploited because of the challenge of mining and modeling enormous data sets, the difficulty of using nontraditional computational techniques and the focus of accepted statistical analyses on controlling the false positive rate rather than limiting the false negative rate. In this article, we will review the common approach to analysis of GWAS data and then discuss options to learn more from these data. We will use examples from our ongoing studies of sickle cell anemia and also GWAS in multigenic traits.

Geospatial Clustering of Opioid-Related Emergency Medical Services Runs for Public Deployment of Naloxone.

INTRODUCTION: The epidemic of opioid use disorder and opioid overdose carries extensive morbidity and mortality and necessitates a multi-pronged, community-level response. Bystander administration of the opioid overdose antidote naloxone is effective, but it is not universally available and requires consistent effort on the part of citizens to proactively carry naloxone. An alternate approach would be to position naloxone kits where they are most needed in a community, in a manner analogous to automated external defibrillators. We hypothesized that opioid overdoses would show geospatial clustering within a community, leading to potential target sites for such publicly deployed naloxone (PDN). METHODS: We performed a retrospective chart review of 700 emergency medical service (EMS) runs that involved opioid overdose or naloxone administration in Cambridge, Massachusetts, between October 16, 2016 and May 10, 2017. We used geospatial analysis to examine for clustering in general, and to identify specific clusters amenable to PDN sites. RESULTS: Opioid-related emergency medical services (EMS) runs in Cambridge, Massachusetts (MA), exhibit significant geospatial clustering, and we identified three clusters of opioid-related EMS runs in Cambridge, MA, with distinct characteristics. Models of PDN sites at these clusters show that approximately 40% of all opioid-related EMS runs in Cambridge, MA, would be accessible within 200 meters of PDN sites placed at cluster centroids. CONCLUSION: Identifying clusters of opioid-related EMS runs within a community may help to improve community coverage of naloxone, and strongly suggests that PDN could be a useful adjunct to bystander-administered naloxone in stemming the tide of opioid-related death.

Geospatial analysis of emergency department visits for targeting community-based responses to the opioid epidemic.

The opioid epidemic in the United States carries significant morbidity and mortality and requires a coordinated response among emergency providers, outpatient providers, public health departments, and communities. Anecdotally, providers across the spectrum of care at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) in Boston, MA have noticed that Charlestown, a community in northeast Boston, has been particularly impacted by the opioid epidemic and needs both emergency and longer-term resources. We hypothesized that geospatial analysis of the home addresses of patients presenting to the MGH emergency department (ED) with opioid-related emergencies might identify "hot spots" of opioid-related healthcare needs within Charlestown that could then be targeted for further investigation and resource deployment. Here, we present a geospatial analysis at the United States census tract level of the home addresses of all patients who presented to the MGH ED for opioid-related emergency visits between 7/1/2012 and 6/30/2015, including 191 visits from 100 addresses in Charlestown, MA. Among the six census tracts that comprise Charlestown, we find a 9.5-fold difference in opioid-related ED visits, with 45% of all opioid-related visits from Charlestown originating in tract 040401. The signal from this census tract remains strong after adjusting for population differences between census tracts, and while this tract is one of the higher utilizing census tracts in Charlestown of the MGH ED for all cause visits, it also has a 2.9-fold higher rate of opioid-related visits than the remainder of Charlestown. Identifying this hot spot of opioid-related emergency needs within Charlestown may help re-distribute existing resources efficiently, empower community and ED-based physicians to advocate for their patients, and serve as a catalyst for partnerships between MGH and local community groups. More broadly, this analysis demonstrates that EDs can use geospatial analysis to address the emergency and longer-term health needs of the communities they are designed to serve.

Accuracy of Inferior Vena Cava Ultrasound for Predicting Dehydration in Children with Acute Diarrhea in Resource-Limited Settings.

INTRODUCTION: Although dehydration from diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under five, existing methods of assessing dehydration status in children have limited accuracy. OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound measurement of the aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration in children. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of children under five years with acute diarrhea was conducted in the rehydration unit of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b). Ultrasound measurements of aorta-to-IVC ratio and dehydrated weight were obtained on patient arrival. Percent weight change was monitored during rehydration to classify children as having "some dehydration" with weight change 3-9% or "severe dehydration" with weight change > 9%. Logistic regression analysis and Receiver-Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration severity. RESULTS: 850 children were enrolled, of which 771 were included in the final analysis. Aorta to IVC ratio was a significant predictor of the percent dehydration in children with acute diarrhea, with each 1-point increase in the aorta to IVC ratio predicting a 1.1% increase in the percent dehydration of the child. However, the area under the ROC curve (0.60), sensitivity (67%), and specificity (49%), for predicting severe dehydration were all poor. CONCLUSIONS: Point-of-care ultrasound of the aorta-to-IVC ratio was statistically associated with volume status, but was not accurate enough to be used as an independent screening tool for dehydration in children under five years presenting with acute diarrhea in a resource-limited setting.

Health span approximates life span among many supercentenarians: compression of morbidity at the approximate limit of life span.

We analyze the relationship between age of survival, morbidity, and disability among centenarians (age 100-104 years), semisupercentenarians (age 105-109 years), and supercentenarians (age 110-119 years). One hundred and four supercentenarians, 430 semisupercentenarians, 884 centenarians, 343 nonagenarians, and 436 controls were prospectively followed for an average of 3 years (range 0-13 years). The older the age group, generally, the later the onset of diseases, such as cancer, cardiovascular disease, dementia, and stroke, as well as of cognitive and functional decline. The hazard ratios for these individual diseases became progressively less with older and older age, and the relative period of time spent with disease was lower with increasing age group. We observed a progressive delay in the age of onset of physical and cognitive function impairment, age-related diseases, and overall morbidity with increasing age. As the limit of human life span was effectively approached with supercentenarians, compression of morbidity was generally observed.