Do health care quality improvement policies work for all? Distributional effects by baseline quality in South Africa.

Health care quality improvement (QI) initiatives are being implemented by a number of low- and middle-income countries. However, there is concern that these policies may not reduce, or may even worsen, inequities in access to high-quality care. Few studies have examined the distributional impact of QI programmes. We study the Ideal Clinic Realization and Maintenance program implemented in health facilities in South Africa, assessing whether the effects of the program are sensitive to previous quality performance. Implementing difference-in-difference-in-difference and changes-in-changes approaches we estimate the effect of the program on quality across the distribution of past facility quality performance. We find that the largest gains are realized by facilities with higher baseline quality, meaning this policy may have led to a worsening of pre-existing inequity in health care quality. Our study highlights that the full consequences of QI programmes cannot be gauged solely from examination of the mean impact.

Costs of the COVID-19 vaccination programme: estimates from the West Rand district of South Africa, 2021/2022.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 vaccination programme in South Africa was rolled out in February 2021 via five delivery channels- hospitals, primary healthcare (PHC), fixed, temporary, and mobile outreach channels. In this study, we estimated the financial and economic costs of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in the first year of roll out from February 2021 to January 2022 and one month prior, in one district of South Africa, the West Rand district. METHODS: Financial and economic costs were estimated from a public payer's perspective using top-down and ingredient-based costing approaches. Data were collected on costs incurred at the national level and from the West Rand district. Total cost and cost per COVID-19 vaccine dose were estimated for each of the five delivery channels implemented in the district. In addition, we estimated vaccine delivery costs which we defined as total cost exclusive of vaccine procurement costs. RESULTS: Total financial and economic costs were estimated at US$8.5 million and US$12 million, respectively; with a corresponding cost per dose of US$15.31 (financial) and US$21.85 (economic). The two biggest total cost drivers were vaccine procurement which contributed 73% and 51% to total financial and economic costs respectively, and staff time which contributed 10% and 36% to total financial and economic costs, respectively. Total vaccine delivery costs were estimated at US$2.1 million (financial) and US$5.7 million (economic); and the corresponding cost per dose at US$3.84 (financial) and US$10.38 (economic). Vaccine delivery cost per dose (financial/economic) was estimated at US$2.93/12.84 and US$2.45/5.99 in hospitals and PHCs, respectively, and at US$7.34/20.29, US$3.96/11.89 and US$24.81/28.76 in fixed, temporary and mobile outreach sites, respectively. Staff time was the biggest economic cost driver for vaccine delivery in PHCs and hospitals while per diems and staff time were the biggest economic cost drivers for vaccine delivery in the three outreach delivery channels. CONCLUSION: This study offers insights for budgeting and planning of COVID-19 vaccine delivery in South Africa's public healthcare system. It also provides input for cost-effectiveness analyses to guide future strategies for maximizing vaccination coverage in the country.

Facility standards and the quality of public sector primary care: Evidence from South Africa's "Ideal Clinics" program.

Primary healthcare systems are central to achieving universal healthcare coverage. However, in many low- and middle-income country settings, primary care quality is challenged by inadequate facility infrastructure and equipment, limited human resources, and poor provider process. We study the effects of a recent large-scale quality improvement policy in South Africa, the Ideal Clinics Realization and Maintenance Program (ICRMP). The ICRMP introduced a set of standards for facilities and a quality improvement process involving manuals, district-based support, and external assessment. Exploiting differential prioritization of facilities for the ICRMP's quality improvement process, we apply differences-in-differences methods to identify the effects of the program's efforts on standards scores and primary care quality indicators over the first 12 months of implementation. We find large and statistically significant increases in standards scores, but mixed effects on care outcomes-a small magnitude improvement in early antenatal care usage, null effects on childhood immunization and cervical cancer screening, and small negative effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care. While the ICRMP process has led to significant improvements in facilities' satisfaction of the program's standards, we were unable to detect meaningful change in care quality indicators.

Changes in catastrophic health expenditure in post-conflict Sierra Leone: an Oaxaca-blinder decomposition analysis.

BACKGROUND: At the end of the eleven-year conflict in Sierra Leone, a wide range of policies were implemented to address both demand- and supply-side constraints within the healthcare system, which had collapsed during the conflict. This study examines the extent to which households' exposure to financial risks associated with seeking healthcare evolved in post-conflict Sierra Leone. METHOD: This study uses the 2003 and 2011 cross-sections of the Sierra Leone Integrated Household Survey to examine changes in catastrophic health expenditure between 2003 and 2011. An Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition approach is used to quantify the extent to which changes in catastrophic health expenditure are attributable to changes in the distribution of determinants (distributional effect) and to changes in the impact of these determinants on the probability of incurring catastrophic health expenditure (coefficient effect). RESULTS: The incidence of catastrophic health expenditure decreased significantly by 18% from approximately 50% in 2003 t0 32% in 2011. The decomposition analysis shows that this decrease represents net effects attributable to the distributional and coefficient effects of three determinants of catastrophic health expenditure - ill-health, the region in which households reside and the type of health facility used. A decrease in the incidence of ill-health and changes in the regional location of households contributed to a decrease in catastrophic health expenditure. The distributional effect of health facility types observed as an increase in the use of public health facilities, and a decrease in the use of services in facilities owned by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) also contributed to a decrease in the incidence of catastrophic health expenditure. However, the coefficient effect of public health facilities and NGO-owned facilities suggests that substantial exposure to financial risk remained for households utilizing both types of health facilities in 2011. CONCLUSION: The findings support the need to continue expanding current demand-side policies in Sierra Leone to reduce the financial risk of exposure to ill health.

Implications of Misclassification Errors in Empirical Studies of Adolescent Smoking Behaviours.

Misclassification errors in a dependent variable can introduce attenuation bias to covariate effects in a binary choice model. Misreporting of smoking behaviours by adolescents has been widely documented. However, the consequence in empirical studies of adolescent smoking participation has received little attention. This study uses the Health Survey for England (HSE) to investigate the extent and implication of misclassification errors in self-reported smoking among adolescents aged 11-15 years. The HSE contains both a self-reported smoking component and an objective measure of smoking obtained from saliva cotinine assays. Saliva cotinine concentration ≥12 ng/ml is considered the 'true' indicator of adolescent smoking participation against which self-reported smoking is compared. The findings show that smoking is misreported in this age group, resulting in a downwards bias of marginal effect estimates. Given the widespread use of self-reported smoking data, this study explores the performance of the Hausman, Abrevaya and Scott-Morton-modified maximum likelihood estimation (HAS approach) in recovering true estimates of covariate effects. In this context, the HAS approach performs better when the misclassification probabilities are treated as constants compared with when they are treated as conditionally dependent parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based practitioner programmes in Ethiopia, Indonesia and Kenya.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the cost-effectiveness of community-based practitioner programmes in Ethiopia, Indonesia and Kenya. METHODS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the three programmes were estimated from a government perspective. Cost data were collected for 2012. Life years gained were estimated based on coverage of reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health services. For Ethiopia and Kenya, estimates of coverage before and after the implementation of the programme were obtained from empirical studies. For Indonesia, coverage of health service interventions was estimated from routine data. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the number of lives saved from changes in reproductive, maternal, neonatal and child health-service coverage. Gross domestic product per capita was used as the reference willingness-to-pay threshold value. FINDINGS: The estimated incremental cost per life year gained was 82 international dollars ($)in Kenya, $999 in Ethiopia and $3396 in Indonesia. The results were most sensitive to uncertainty in the estimates of life-years gained. Based on the results of probabilistic sensitivity analysis, there was greater than 80% certainty that each programme was cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Community-based approaches are likely to be cost-effective for delivery of some essential health interventions where community-based practitioners operate within an integrated team supported by the health system. Community-based practitioners may be most appropriate in rural poor communities that have limited access to more qualified health professionals. Further research is required to understand which programmatic design features are critical to effectiveness.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out in South Africa beginning in February 2021. In this study we retrospectively assessed the cost-effectiveness of the vaccination programme in its first two years of implementation. METHOD: We modelled the costs, expressed in 2021 US$, and health outcomes of the COVID-19 vaccination programme compared to a no vaccination programme scenario. The study was conducted from a public payer's perspective over two time-horizons - nine months (February to November 2021) and twenty-four months (February 2021 to January 2023). Health outcomes were estimated from a disease transmission model parameterised with data on COVID-19-related hospitalisations and deaths and were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (DSA and PSA) were conducted to assess parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was estimated at US$1600 per DALY averted during the first study time horizon. The corresponding ICER for the second study period was estimated at US$1300 per DALY averted. When 85% of all excess deaths during these periods were included in the analysis, ICERs in the first and second study periods were estimated at US$1070 and US$660 per DALY averted, respectively. In the PSA, almost 100% of simulations fell below the estimated opportunity cost-based cost-effectiveness threshold for South Africa (US$2300 DALYs averted). COVID-19 vaccination programme cost per dose had the greatest impact on the ICERs. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that South Africa's COVID-19 vaccination programme represented good value for money in the first two years of rollout.

Extended cost-effectiveness analysis of interventions to improve uptake of diabetes services in South Africa.

The rising prevalence of diabetes in South Africa (SA), coupled with significant levels of unmet need for diagnosis and treatment, results in high rates of diabetes-associated complications. Income status is a determinant of utilization of diagnosis and treatment services, with transport costs and loss of wages being key barriers to care. A conditional cash transfer (CCT) programme, targeted to compensate for such costs, may improve service utilization. We applied extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods and used a Markov model to compare the costs, health benefits and financial risk protection (FRP) attributes of a CCT programme. A population was simulated, drawing from SA-specific data, which transitioned yearly through various health states, based on specific probabilities obtained from local data, over a 45-year time horizon. Costs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were applied to each health state. Three CCT programme strategies were simulated and compared to a 'no programme' scenario: (1) covering diagnosis services only; (2) covering treatment services only; (3) covering both diagnosis and treatment services. Cost-effectiveness was reported as incremental net monetary benefit (INMB) using a cost-effectiveness threshold of USD3015 per DALY for SA, while FRP outcomes were reported as catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) cases averted. Distributions of the outcomes were reported by income quintile and sex. Covering both diagnosis and treatment services for the bottom two quintiles resulted in the greatest INMB (USD22 per person) and the greatest CHE cases averted. There were greater FRP benefits for women compared to men. A CCT programme covering diabetes diagnosis and treatment services was found to be cost-effective, when provided to the poorest 40% of the SA population. ECEA provides a useful platform for including equity considerations to inform priority setting and implementation policies in SA.

Cancer mortality distribution in South Africa, 1997-2016.

Introduction: The mortality data in South Africa (SA) have not been widely used to estimate the patterns of deaths attributed to cancer over a spectrum of relevant subgroups. There is no research in SA providing patterns and atlases of cancer deaths in age and sex groups per district per year. This study presents age-sex-specific geographical patterns of cancer mortality at the district level in SA and their temporal evolutions from 1997 to 2016. Methods: Individual mortality level data provided by Statistics South Africa were grouped by three age groups (0-14, 15-64, and 65+), sex (male and female), and aggregated at each of the 52 districts. The proportionate mortality ratios (PMRs) for cancer were calculated per 100 residents. The atlases showing the distribution of cancer mortality were plotted using ArcGIS. Spatial analyses were conducted through Moran's I test. Results: There was an increase in PMRs for cancer in the age groups 15-64 and 65+ years from 2006 to 2016. Ranges were 2.83 (95% CI: 2.77-2.89) -4.16 (95% CI: 4.08-4.24) among men aged 15-64 years and 2.99 (95% CI: 2.93-3.06) -5.19 (95% CI: 5.09-5.28) among women in this age group. The PMRs in men and women aged 65+ years were 2.47 (95% CI: 2.42-2.53) -4.06 (95% CI: 3.98-4.14), and 2.33 (95% CI: 2.27-2.38) -4.19 (95% CI: 4.11-4.28). There were considerable geographical variations and similarities in the patterns of cancer mortality. For the age group 15-64 years, the ranges were 1.18 (95% CI: 0.78-1.71) -8.71 (95% CI: 7.18-10.47), p < 0.0001 in men and 1.35 (95% CI: 0.92-1.92) -10.83 (95% CI: 8.84-13.14), p < 0.0001 in women in 2016. There were higher PMRs among women in the Western Cape, Northern Cape, North West, and Gauteng compared to other areas. Similar patterns were also observed among men in these provinces, except in North West and Gauteng. Conclusion: The identification of geographical and temporal distributions of cancer mortality provided evidence of periods and districts with similar and divergent patterns. This will contribute to understanding the past, present, future trends and formulating interventions at a local level.

Response to a commentary by Barr (2022) on Edoka and Stacey (2020) estimating a cost-effectiveness threshold for healthcare decision-making in South Africa.

Methodological issues pose significant challenges to estimating marginal cost per unit of health. In this commentary, we revisit these challenges and respond to a recent commentary on the validity of previously estimated marginal cost per unit of health in South Africa.

Inpatient Care Costs of COVID-19 in South Africa's Public Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has had a devastating impact globally, with severe health and economic consequences. To prepare health systems to deal with the pandemic, epidemiological and cost projection models are required to inform budgets and efficient allocation of resources. This study estimates daily inpatient care costs of COVID-19 in South Africa, an important input into cost projection and economic evaluation models. METHODS: We adopted a micro-costing approach, which involved the identification, measurement and valuation of resources used in the clinical management of COVID-19. We considered only direct medical costs for an episode of hospitalisation from the South African public health system perspective. Resource quantities and unit costs were obtained from various sources. Inpatient costs per patient day was estimated for consumables, capital equipment and human resources for three levels of inpatient care - general wards, high care wards and intensive care units (ICUs). RESULTS: Average daily costs per patient increased with the level of care. The highest average daily cost was estimated for ICU admissions - 271 USD to 306 USD (financial costs) and ~800 USD to 830 USD (economic costs, excluding facility fee) depending on the need for invasive vs. non-invasive ventilation (NIV). Conversely, the lowest cost was estimated for general ward-based care - 62 USD to 79 USD (financial costs) and 119 USD to 278 USD (economic costs, excluding facility fees) depending on the need for supplemental oxygen. In high care wards, total cost was estimated at 156 USD, financial costs and 277 USD, economic costs (excluding facility fees). Probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggest our costs estimates are robust to uncertainty in cost inputs. CONCLUSION: Our estimates of inpatient costs are useful for informing budgeting and planning processes and cost-effectiveness analysis in the South African context. However, these estimates can be adapted to inform policy decisions in other context.

Empirical Estimates of the Marginal Cost of Health Produced by a Healthcare System: Methodological Considerations from Country-Level Estimates.

Many health technology assessment committees have an explicit or implicit reference value (often referred to as a 'threshold') below which new health technologies or interventions are considered value for money. The basis for these reference values is unclear but one argument is that it should be based on the health opportunity costs of funding decisions. Empirical estimates of the marginal cost per unit of health produced by a healthcare system have been proposed to capture the health opportunity costs of new funding decisions. Based on a systematic search, we identified eight studies that have sought to estimate a reference value through empirical estimation of the marginal cost per unit of health produced by a healthcare system for England, Spain, Australia, The Netherlands, Sweden, South Africa and China. We review these eight studies to provide an overview of the key methodological approaches taken to estimate the marginal cost per unit of health produced by the healthcare system with the aim to help inform future estimates for additional countries. The lead author for each of these papers was invited to contribute to the current paper to ensure all the key methodological issues encountered were appropriately captured. These included consideration of the key variables required and their measurement, accounting for endogeneity of spending to health outcomes, the inclusion of lagged spending, discounting and future costs, the use of analytical weights, level of disease aggregation, expected duration of health gains, and modelling approaches to estimating mortality and morbidity effects of health spending. Subsequent research estimates for additional countries should (1) carefully consider the specific context and data available, (2) clearly and transparently report the assumptions made and include stakeholder perspectives on their appropriateness and acceptability, and (3) assess the sensitivity of the preferred central estimate to these assumptions.

Costs of seasonal influenza vaccination in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Influenza accounts for a substantial number of deaths and hospitalisations annually in South Africa. To address this disease burden, the South African National Department of Health introduced a trivalent inactivated influenza vaccination programme in 2010. METHODS: We adapted and populated the WHO Seasonal Influenza Immunization Costing Tool (WHO SIICT) with country-specific data to estimate the cost of the influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. Data were obtained through key-informant interviews at different levels of the health system and through a review of existing secondary data sources. Costs were estimated from a public provider perspective and expressed in 2018 prices. We conducted scenario analyses to assess the impact of different levels of programme expansion and the use of quadrivalent vaccines on total programme costs. RESULTS: Total financial and economic costs were estimated at approximately USD 2.93 million and USD 7.91 million, respectively, while financial and economic cost per person immunised was estimated at USD 3.29 and USD 8.88, respectively. Expanding the programme by 5% and 10% increased economic cost per person immunised to USD 9.36 and USD 9.52 in the two scenarios, respectively. Finally, replacing trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) with quadrivalent vaccine increased financial and economic costs to USD 4.89 and USD 10.48 per person immunised, respectively. CONCLUSION: We adapted the WHO SIICT and provide estimates of the total costs of the seasonal influenza vaccination programme in South Africa. These estimates provide a basis for planning future programme expansion and may serve as inputs for cost-effectiveness analyses of seasonal influenza vaccination programmes.

Are Estimates of the Health Opportunity Cost Being Used to Draw Conclusions in Published Cost-Effectiveness Analyses? A Scoping Review in Four Countries.

BACKGROUND: When healthcare budgets are exogenous, cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) used to inform funding decisions should represent the health opportunity cost (HOC) of such funding decisions, but HOC-based CET estimates have not been available until recently. In recent years, empirical HOC-based CETs for multiple countries have been published, but the use of these CETs in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) literature has not been investigated. Analysis of the use of HOC-based CETs by researchers undertaking CEAs in countries with different decision-making contexts will provide valuable insights to further understand barriers and facilitators to the acceptance and use of HOC-based CETs. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to identify the CET values used to interpret the results of CEAs published in the scientific literature before and after the publication of jurisdiction-specific empirical HOC-based CETs in four countries. METHODS: We undertook a scoping review of CEAs published in Spain, Australia, the Netherlands and South Africa between 2016 (2014 in Spain) and 2020. CETs used before and after publication of HOC estimates were recorded. We conducted logit regressions exploring factors explaining the use of HOC values in identified studies and linear models exploring the association of the reported CET value with study characteristics and results. RESULTS: 1171 studies were included in this review (870 CEAs and 301 study protocols). HOC values were cited in 28% of CEAs in Spain and in 11% of studies conducted in Australia, but they were not referred to in CEAs undertaken in the Netherlands and South Africa. Regression analyses on Spanish and Australian studies indicate that more recent studies, studies without a conflict of interest and studies estimating an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) below the HOC value were more likely to use the HOC as a threshold reference. In addition, we found a small but significant impact indicating that for every dollar increase in the estimated ICER, the reported CET increased by US$0.015. Based on the findings of our review, we discuss the potential factors that might explain the lack of adoption of HOC-based CETs in the empirical CEA literature. CONCLUSIONS: The adoption of HOC-based CETs by identified published CEAs has been uneven across the four analysed countries, most likely due to underlying differences in their decision-making processes. Our results also reinforce a previous finding indicating that CETs might be endogenously selected to fit authors' conclusions.

Could a Shigella vaccine impact long-term health outcomes?: Summary report of an expert meeting to inform a Shigella vaccine public health value proposition, March 24 and 29, 2021.

Shigellosis is a leading cause of diarrhea and dysentery in young children from low to middle-income countries and adults experiencing traveler's diarrhea worldwide. In addition to acute illness, infection by Shigella bacteria is associated with stunted growth among children, which has been linked to detrimental long-term health, developmental, and economic outcomes. On March 24 and 29, 2021, PATH convened an expert panel to discuss the potential impact of Shigella vaccines on these long-term outcomes. Based on current empirical evidence, this discussion focused on whether Shigella vaccines could potentially alleviate the long-term burden associated with Shigella infections. Also, the experts provided recommendations about how to best model the burden, health and vaccine impact, and economic consequences of Shigella infections. This international multidisciplinary panel included 13 scientists, physicians, and economists from multiple relevant specialties. According to the panel, while the relationship between Shigella infections and childhood growth deficits is complex, this relationship likely exists. Vaccine probe studies are the crucial next step to determine whether vaccination could ameliorate Shigella infection-related long-term impacts. Infants should be vaccinated during their first year of life to maximize their protection from severe acute health outcomes and ideally reduce stunting risk and subsequent negative long-term developmental and health impacts. With vaccine schedule crowding, targeted or combination vaccination approaches would likely increase vaccine uptake in high-burden areas. Shigella impact and economic assessment models should include a wider range of linear growth outcomes. Also, these models should produce a spectrum of results-ones addressing immediate benefits for usual health care decision-makers and others that include broader health impacts, providing a more comprehensive picture of vaccination benefits. While many of the underlying mechanisms of this relationship need better characterization, the remaining gaps can be best addressed by collecting data post-vaccine introduction or through large trials.

Changes in beverage purchases following the announcement and implementation of South Africa's Health Promotion Levy: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: In 2016, South Africa announced an intention to levy a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). In 2018, the country implemented an SSB tax of approximately 10%, known as the Health Promotion Levy (HPL). We aimed to assess changes in the purchases of beverages before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. METHODS: We used Kantar Europanel data on monthly household purchases between January, 2014, and March, 2019, among a sample of South African households (n=113 653 household-month observations) from all nine provinces to obtain per-capita sugar, calories, and volume from taxable and non-taxable beverages purchased before and after the HPL announcement and implementation. We describe survey-weighted means for each period, and regression-controlled predictions of outcomes and counterfactuals based on pre-HPL announcement trends, with bootstrapped 95% CIs, and stratify results by socioeconomic status. FINDINGS: Mean sugar from taxable beverage purchases fell from 16·25 g/capita per day (95% CI 15·80-16·70) to 14·26 (13·85-14·67) from the pre-HPL announcement to post-announcement period, and then to 10·63 g/capita per day (10·22-11·04) in the year after implementation. Mean volumes of taxable beverage purchases fell from 518·99 mL/capita per day (506·90-531·08) to 492·16 (481·28-503·04) from pre-announcement to post announcement, and then to 443·39 mL/capita per day (430·10-456·56) after implementation. Across these time periods, there was a small increase in the purchases of non-taxable beverages, from 283·45 mL/capita per day (273·34-293·56) pre-announcement to 312·94 (296·29-329·29) post implementation. When compared with pre-announcement counterfactual trends, reductions in taxable beverage purchase outcomes were significantly larger than the unadjusted survey-weighted observed reductions. Households with lower socioeconomic status purchased larger amounts of taxable beverages in the pre-announcement period than did households with higher socioeconomic status, but demonstrated bigger reductions after the tax was implemented. INTERPRETATION: The announcement and introduction of South Africa's HPL were followed by reductions in the sugar, calories, and volume of beverage purchases. FUNDING: Bloomberg Philanthropies, International Development Research Centre, South African Medical Research Council, and the US National Institutes of Health.

A cost-effectiveness analysis of South Africa's seasonal influenza vaccination programme.

BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza imposes a significant health and economic burden in South Africa, particularly in populations vulnerable to severe consequences of influenza. This study assesses the cost-effectiveness of South Africa's seasonal influenza vaccination strategy, which involves vaccinating vulnerable populations with trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV) during routine facility visits. Vulnerable populations included in our analysis are persons aged ≥ 65 years; pregnant women; persons living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), persons of any age with underlying medical conditions (UMC) and children aged 6-59 months. METHOD: We employed the World Health Organisation's (WHO) Cost Effectiveness Tool for Seasonal Influenza Vaccination (CETSIV), a decision tree model, to evaluate the 2018 seasonal influenza vaccination campaign from a public healthcare provider and societal perspective. CETSIV was populated with existing country-specific demographic, epidemiologic and coverage data to estimate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) by comparing costs and benefits of the influenza vaccination programme to no vaccination. RESULTS: The highest number of clinical events (influenza cases, outpatient visits, hospitalisation and deaths) were averted in PLWHA and persons with other UMCs. Using a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$ 3400 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY), our findings suggest that the vaccination programme is cost-effective for all vulnerable populations except for children aged 6-59 months. ICERs ranged from ~US$ 1 750 /QALY in PLWHA to ~US$ 7500/QALY in children. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the vaccination programme was cost-effective in pregnant women, PLWHA, persons with UMCs and persons aged ≥65 years in >80% of simulations. These findings were robust to changes in many model inputs but were most sensitive to uncertainty in estimates of influenza-associated illness burden. CONCLUSION: South Africa's seasonal influenza vaccination strategy of opportunistically targeting vulnerable populations during routine visits is cost-effective. A budget impact analysis will be useful for supporting future expansions of the programme.

Cost-effectiveness of Remdesivir and Dexamethasone for COVID-19 Treatment in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Dexamethasone and remdesivir have the potential to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID)-related mortality or recovery time, but their cost-effectiveness in countries with limited intensive care resources is unknown. METHODS: We projected intensive care unit (ICU) needs and capacity from August 2020 to January 2021 using the South African National COVID-19 Epi Model. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of (1) administration of dexamethasone to ventilated patients and remdesivir to nonventilated patients, (2) dexamethasone alone to both nonventilated and ventilated patients, (3) remdesivir to nonventilated patients only, and (4) dexamethasone to ventilated patients only, all relative to a scenario of standard care. We estimated costs from the health care system perspective in 2020 US dollars, deaths averted, and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of each scenario. RESULTS: Remdesivir for nonventilated patients and dexamethasone for ventilated patients was estimated to result in 408 (uncertainty range, 229-1891) deaths averted (assuming no efficacy [uncertainty range, 0%-70%] of remdesivir) compared with standard care and to save $15 million. This result was driven by the efficacy of dexamethasone and the reduction of ICU-time required for patients treated with remdesivir. The scenario of dexamethasone alone for nonventilated and ventilated patients requires an additional $159 000 and averts 689 [uncertainty range, 330-1118] deaths, resulting in $231 per death averted, relative to standard care. CONCLUSIONS: The use of remdesivir for nonventilated patients and dexamethasone for ventilated patients is likely to be cost-saving compared with standard care by reducing ICU days. Further efforts to improve recovery time with remdesivir and dexamethasone in ICUs could save lives and costs in South Africa.

Estimating a cost-effectiveness threshold for health care decision-making in South Africa.

Cost-effectiveness thresholds are important decision rules that determine whether health interventions represent good value for money. In low- and middle-income countries, the World Health Organization (WHO) one to three times per capita gross domestic product (GDP) per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted has been the most widely used threshold for informing resource allocation decisions. However, in 2016, the WHO withdrew recommendations for using this threshold, creating a significant vacuum in South Africa and many countries that rely on results of cost-effectiveness analyses for making resource allocation decisions. This study estimates a cost-effectiveness threshold that reflects the health opportunity cost of health spending in South Africa using a three-step approach. First, marginal returns to health spending was estimated as health spending elasticity for crude death rates using a fixed effect estimation approach. Second, the opportunity cost of health spending was estimated as DALYs averted. Finally, a cost per DALY averted threshold was estimated as the inverse of the marginal product of health spending. We show that 1% of total health spending in 2015 (equivalent to approximately ZAR 1.54 billion/USD 120.7 million) averted 1050 deaths, 34 180 years of life lost, 5880 years lived with disability and 40 055 DALYs. The cost-effectiveness threshold was estimated at approximately ZAR 38 500 (USD 3015) per DALY averted, ∼53% of South Africa's per capita GDP in 2015 (ZAR 72 700/USD 5700) and lower than the previously recommended one to three times per capita GDP. As South Africa moves towards implementing universal health coverage reforms through National Health Insurance by 2025, the adoption of a threshold that reflects health opportunity costs will be crucial for ensuring efficiency in the allocation of scarce resources. This study provides useful insight into the magnitude of the health opportunity cost of health spending in South Africa and highlights the need for further research.

Rubella Vaccine Introduction in the South African Public Vaccination Schedule: Mathematical Modelling for Decision Making.

Background: age structured mathematical models have been used to evaluate the impact of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) introduction into existing measles vaccination programs in several countries. South Africa has a well-established measles vaccination program and is considering RCV introduction. This study aimed to provide a comparison of different scenarios and their relative costs within the context of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) reduction or elimination. Methods: we used a previously published age-structured deterministic discrete time rubella transmission model. We obtained estimates of vaccine costs from the South African medicines price registry and the World Health Organization. We simulated RCV introduction and extracted estimates of rubella incidence, CRS incidence and effective reproductive number over 30 years. Results: compared to scenarios without mass campaigns, scenarios including mass campaigns resulted in more rapid elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). Routine vaccination at 12 months of age coupled with vaccination of nine-year-old children was associated with the lowest RCV cost per CRS case averted for a similar percentage CRS reduction. Conclusion: At 80% RCV coverage, all vaccine introduction scenarios would achieve rubella and CRS elimination in South Africa. Any RCV introduction strategy should consider a combination of routine vaccination in the primary immunization series and additional vaccination of older children.