Global variation in diversification rate and species richness are unlinked in plants.

Species richness varies immensely around the world. Variation in the rate of diversification (speciation minus extinction) is often hypothesized to explain this pattern, while alternative explanations invoke time or ecological carrying capacities as drivers. Focusing on seed plants, the world's most important engineers of terrestrial ecosystems, we investigated the role of diversification rate as a link between the environment and global species richness patterns. Applying structural equation modeling to a comprehensive distribution dataset and phylogenetic tree covering all circa 332,000 seed plant species and 99.9% of the world's terrestrial surface (excluding Antarctica), we test five broad hypotheses postulating that diversification serves as a mechanistic link between species richness and climate, climatic stability, seasonality, environmental heterogeneity, or the distribution of biomes. Our results show that the global patterns of species richness and diversification rate are entirely independent. Diversification rates were not highest in warm and wet climates, running counter to the Metabolic Theory of Ecology, one of the dominant explanations for global gradients in species richness. Instead, diversification rates were highest in edaphically diverse, dry areas that have experienced climate change during the Neogene. Meanwhile, we confirmed climate and environmental heterogeneity as the main drivers of species richness, but these effects did not involve diversification rates as a mechanistic link, calling for alternative explanations. We conclude that high species richness is likely driven by the antiquity of wet tropical areas (supporting the "tropical conservatism hypothesis") or the high ecological carrying capacity of warm, wet, and/or environmentally heterogeneous environments.

High exposure of global tree diversity to human pressure.

Safeguarding Earth's tree diversity is a conservation priority due to the importance of trees for biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services such as carbon sequestration. Here, we improve the foundation for effective conservation of global tree diversity by analyzing a recently developed database of tree species covering 46,752 species. We quantify range protection and anthropogenic pressures for each species and develop conservation priorities across taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity dimensions. We also assess the effectiveness of several influential proposed conservation prioritization frameworks to protect the top 17% and top 50% of tree priority areas. We find that an average of 50.2% of a tree species' range occurs in 110-km grid cells without any protected areas (PAs), with 6,377 small-range tree species fully unprotected, and that 83% of tree species experience nonnegligible human pressure across their range on average. Protecting high-priority areas for the top 17% and 50% priority thresholds would increase the average protected proportion of each tree species' range to 65.5% and 82.6%, respectively, leaving many fewer species (2,151 and 2,010) completely unprotected. The priority areas identified for trees match well to the Global 200 Ecoregions framework, revealing that priority areas for trees would in large part also optimize protection for terrestrial biodiversity overall. Based on range estimates for >46,000 tree species, our findings show that a large proportion of tree species receive limited protection by current PAs and are under substantial human pressure. Improved protection of biodiversity overall would also strongly benefit global tree diversity.

Global hotspots of plant phylogenetic diversity.

Regions harbouring high unique phylogenetic diversity (PD) are priority targets for conservation. Here, we analyse the global distribution of plant PD, which remains poorly understood despite plants being the foundation of most terrestrial habitats and key to human livelihoods. Capitalising on a recently completed, comprehensive global checklist of vascular plants, we identify hotspots of unique plant PD and test three hypotheses: (1) PD is more evenly distributed than species diversity; (2) areas of highest PD (often called 'hotspots') do not maximise cumulative PD; and (3) many biomes are needed to maximise cumulative PD. Our results support all three hypotheses: more than twice as many regions are required to cover 50% of global plant PD compared to 50% of species; regions that maximise cumulative PD substantially differ from the regions with outstanding individual PD; and while (sub-)tropical moist forest regions dominate across PD hotspots, other forest types and open biomes are also essential. Safeguarding PD in the Anthropocene (including the protection of some comparatively species-poor areas) is a global, increasingly recognised responsibility. Having highlighted countries with outstanding unique plant PD, further analyses are now required to fully understand the global distribution of plant PD and associated conservation imperatives across spatial scales.

The Implications of Incongruence between Gene Tree and Species Tree Topologies for Divergence Time Estimation.

Phylogenetic analyses are increasingly being performed with data sets that incorporate hundreds of loci. Due to incomplete lineage sorting, hybridization, and horizontal gene transfer, the gene trees for these loci may often have topologies that differ from each other and from the species tree. The effect of these topological incongruences on divergence time estimation has not been fully investigated. Using a series of simulation experiments and empirical analyses, we demonstrate that when topological incongruence between gene trees and the species tree is not accounted for, the temporal duration of branches in regions of the species tree that are affected by incongruence is underestimated, whilst the duration of other branches is considerably overestimated. This effect becomes more pronounced with higher levels of topological incongruence. We show that this pattern results from the erroneous estimation of the number of substitutions along branches in the species tree, although the effect is modulated by the assumptions inherent to divergence time estimation, such as those relating to the fossil record or among-branch-substitution-rate variation. By only analyzing loci with gene trees that are topologically congruent with the species tree, or only taking into account the branches from each gene tree that are topologically congruent with the species tree, we demonstrate that the effects of topological incongruence can be ameliorated. Nonetheless, even when topologically congruent gene trees or topologically congruent branches are selected, error in divergence time estimates remains. This stems from temporal incongruences between divergence times in species trees and divergence times in gene trees, and more importantly, the difficulty of incorporating necessary assumptions for divergence time estimation. [Divergence time estimation; gene trees; species tree; topological incongruence.].

A Comprehensive Phylogenomic Platform for Exploring the Angiosperm Tree of Life.

The tree of life is the fundamental biological roadmap for navigating the evolution and properties of life on Earth, and yet remains largely unknown. Even angiosperms (flowering plants) are fraught with data gaps, despite their critical role in sustaining terrestrial life. Today, high-throughput sequencing promises to significantly deepen our understanding of evolutionary relationships. Here, we describe a comprehensive phylogenomic platform for exploring the angiosperm tree of life, comprising a set of open tools and data based on the 353 nuclear genes targeted by the universal Angiosperms353 sequence capture probes. The primary goals of this article are to (i) document our methods, (ii) describe our first data release, and (iii) present a novel open data portal, the Kew Tree of Life Explorer (https://treeoflife.kew.org). We aim to generate novel target sequence capture data for all genera of flowering plants, exploiting natural history collections such as herbarium specimens, and augment it with mined public data. Our first data release, described here, is the most extensive nuclear phylogenomic data set for angiosperms to date, comprising 3099 samples validated by DNA barcode and phylogenetic tests, representing all 64 orders, 404 families (96$\%$) and 2333 genera (17$\%$). A "first pass" angiosperm tree of life was inferred from the data, which totaled 824,878 sequences, 489,086,049 base pairs, and 532,260 alignment columns, for interactive presentation in the Kew Tree of Life Explorer. This species tree was generated using methods that were rigorous, yet tractable at our scale of operation. Despite limitations pertaining to taxon and gene sampling, gene recovery, models of sequence evolution and paralogy, the tree strongly supports existing taxonomy, while challenging numerous hypothesized relationships among orders and placing many genera for the first time. The validated data set, species tree and all intermediates are openly accessible via the Kew Tree of Life Explorer and will be updated as further data become available. This major milestone toward a complete tree of life for all flowering plant species opens doors to a highly integrated future for angiosperm phylogenomics through the systematic sequencing of standardized nuclear markers. Our approach has the potential to serve as a much-needed bridge between the growing movement to sequence the genomes of all life on Earth and the vast phylogenomic potential of the world's natural history collections. [Angiosperms; Angiosperms353; genomics; herbariomics; museomics; nuclear phylogenomics; open access; target sequence capture; tree of life.].

Molecular Clocks and Archeogenomics of a Late Period Egyptian Date Palm Leaf Reveal Introgression from Wild Relatives and Add Timestamps on the Domestication.

The date palm, Phoenix dactylifera, has been a cornerstone of Middle Eastern and North African agriculture for millennia. It was first domesticated in the Persian Gulf, and its evolution appears to have been influenced by gene flow from two wild relatives, P. theophrasti, currently restricted to Crete and Turkey, and P. sylvestris, widespread from Bangladesh to the West Himalayas. Genomes of ancient date palm seeds show that gene flow from P. theophrasti to P. dactylifera may have occurred by ∼2,200 years ago, but traces of P. sylvestris could not be detected. We here integrate archeogenomics of a ∼2,100-year-old P. dactylifera leaf from Saqqara (Egypt), molecular-clock dating, and coalescence approaches with population genomic tests, to probe the hybridization between the date palm and its two closest relatives and provide minimum and maximum timestamps for its reticulated evolution. The Saqqara date palm shares a close genetic affinity with North African date palm populations, and we find clear genomic admixture from both P. theophrasti, and P. sylvestris, indicating that both had contributed to the date palm genome by 2,100 years ago. Molecular-clocks placed the divergence of P. theophrasti from P. dactylifera/P. sylvestris and that of P. dactylifera from P. sylvestris in the Upper Miocene, but strongly supported, conflicting topologies point to older gene flow between P. theophrasti and P. dactylifera, and P. sylvestris and P. dactylifera. Our work highlights the ancient hybrid origin of the date palms, and prompts the investigation of the functional significance of genetic material introgressed from both close relatives, which in turn could prove useful for modern date palm breeding.

The demographic history of Madagascan micro-endemics: have rare species always been rare?

Extinction has increased as human activities impact ecosystems, yet relatively few species have conservation assessments. Novel approaches are needed to highlight threatened species that are currently data-deficient. Many Madagascan plant species have extremely narrow ranges, but this may not have always been the case-it is unclear how the island's diverse flora evolved. To assess this, we generated restriction-site associated DNA sequence data for 10 Madagascan plant species, estimated effective population size (Ne) for each species and compared this to census (Nc) sizes. In each case, Ne was an order of magnitude larger than Nc-signifying rapid, recent population decline. We then estimated species' demographic history, tracking changes in Ne over time. We show that it is possible to predict extinction risk, particularly in the most threatened species. Furthermore, simulations showed that our approach has the power to detect population decline during the Anthropocene. Our analyses reveal that Madagascar's micro-endemics were not always rare, having experienced a rapid decline in their recent history. This casts further uncertainty over the processes that generated Madagascar's exceptional biodiversity. Our approach targets data-deficient species in need of conservation assessment, particularly in regions where human modification of the environment has been rapid.

A robust phylogenomic framework for the calamoid palms.

Well-supported phylogenies are a prerequisite for the study of the evolution and diversity of life on earth. The subfamily Calamoideae accounts for more than one fifth of the palm family (Arecaceae), occurs in tropical rainforests across the world, and supports a billion-dollar industry in rattan products. It contains ca. 550 species in 17 genera, 10 subtribes and three tribes, but their phylogenetic relationships remain insufficiently understood. Here, we sequenced almost one thousand nuclear genomic regions for 75 systematically selected Calamoideae, representing the taxonomic diversity within all calamoid genera. Our phylogenomic analyses resolved a maximally supported phylogenetic backbone for the Calamoideae, including several higher-level relationships not previously inferred. In-depth analysis revealed low gene tree conflict for the backbone but complex deep evolutionary histories within several subtribes. Overall, our phylogenomic framework sheds new light on the evolution of palms and provides a robust foundation for future comparative studies, such as taxonomy, systematics, biogeography, and macroevolutionary research.

On the origin of giant seeds: the macroevolution of the double coconut (Lodoicea maldivica) and its relatives (Borasseae, Arecaceae).

Seed size shapes plant evolution and ecosystems, and may be driven by plant size and architecture, dispersers, habitat and insularity. How these factors influence the evolution of giant seeds is unclear, as are the rate of evolution and the biogeographical consequences of giant seeds. We generated DNA and seed size data for the palm tribe Borasseae (Arecaceae) and its relatives, which show a wide diversity in seed size and include the double coconut (Lodoicea maldivica), the largest seed in the world. We inferred their phylogeny, dispersal history and rates of change in seed size, and evaluated the possible influence of plant size, inflorescence branching, habitat and insularity on these changes. Large seeds were involved in 10 oceanic dispersals. Following theoretical predictions, we found that: taller plants with fewer-branched inflorescences produced larger seeds; seed size tended to evolve faster on islands (except Madagascar); and seeds of shade-loving Borasseae tended to be larger. Plant size and inflorescence branching may constrain seed size in Borasseae and their relatives. The possible roles of insularity, habitat and dispersers are difficult to disentangle. Evolutionary contingencies better explain the gigantism of the double coconut than unusually high rates of seed size increase.

A Universal Probe Set for Targeted Sequencing of 353 Nuclear Genes from Any Flowering Plant Designed Using k-Medoids Clustering.

Sequencing of target-enriched libraries is an efficient and cost-effective method for obtaining DNA sequence data from hundreds of nuclear loci for phylogeny reconstruction. Much of the cost of developing targeted sequencing approaches is associated with the generation of preliminary data needed for the identification of orthologous loci for probe design. In plants, identifying orthologous loci has proven difficult due to a large number of whole-genome duplication events, especially in the angiosperms (flowering plants). We used multiple sequence alignments from over 600 angiosperms for 353 putatively single-copy protein-coding genes identified by the One Thousand Plant Transcriptomes Initiative to design a set of targeted sequencing probes for phylogenetic studies of any angiosperm group. To maximize the phylogenetic potential of the probes, while minimizing the cost of production, we introduce a k-medoids clustering approach to identify the minimum number of sequences necessary to represent each coding sequence in the final probe set. Using this method, 5-15 representative sequences were selected per orthologous locus, representing the sequence diversity of angiosperms more efficiently than if probes were designed using available sequenced genomes alone. To test our approximately 80,000 probes, we hybridized libraries from 42 species spanning all higher-order groups of angiosperms, with a focus on taxa not present in the sequence alignments used to design the probes. Out of a possible 353 coding sequences, we recovered an average of 283 per species and at least 100 in all species. Differences among taxa in sequence recovery could not be explained by relatedness to the representative taxa selected for probe design, suggesting that there is no phylogenetic bias in the probe set. Our probe set, which targeted 260 kbp of coding sequence, achieved a median recovery of 137 kbp per taxon in coding regions, a maximum recovery of 250 kbp, and an additional median of 212 kbp per taxon in flanking non-coding regions across all species. These results suggest that the Angiosperms353 probe set described here is effective for any group of flowering plants and would be useful for phylogenetic studies from the species level to higher-order groups, including the entire angiosperm clade itself.

A roadmap for global synthesis of the plant tree of life.

Providing science and society with an integrated, up-to-date, high quality, open, reproducible and sustainable plant tree of life would be a huge service that is now coming within reach. However, synthesizing the growing body of DNA sequence data in the public domain and disseminating the trees to a diverse audience are often not straightforward due to numerous informatics barriers. While big synthetic plant phylogenies are being built, they remain static and become quickly outdated as new data are published and tree-building methods improve. Moreover, the body of existing phylogenetic evidence is hard to navigate and access for non-experts. We propose that our community of botanists, tree builders, and informaticians should converge on a modular framework for data integration and phylogenetic analysis, allowing easy collaboration, updating, data sourcing and flexible analyses. With support from major institutions, this pipeline should be re-run at regular intervals, storing trees and their metadata long-term. Providing the trees to a diverse global audience through user-friendly front ends and application development interfaces should also be a priority. Interactive interfaces could be used to solicit user feedback and thus improve data quality and to coordinate the generation of new data. We conclude by outlining a number of steps that we suggest the scientific community should take to achieve global phylogenetic synthesis.

Plant phylogeny as a window on the evolution of hyperdiversity in the tropical rainforest biome.

I. II. III. IV. V. VI. VII. VIII. IX. References SUMMARY: Tropical rainforest (TRF) is the most species-rich terrestrial biome on Earth, harbouring just under half of the world's plant species in c. 7% of the land surface. Phylogenetic trees provide important insights into mechanisms underpinning TRF hyperdiversity that are complementary to those obtained from the fossil record. Phylogenetic studies of TRF plant diversity have mainly focused on whether this biome is an evolutionary 'cradle' or 'museum', emphasizing speciation and extinction rates. However, other explanations, such as biome age, immigration and ecological limits, must also be considered. We present a conceptual framework for addressing the drivers of TRF diversity, and review plant studies that have tested them with phylogenetic data. Although surprisingly few in number, these studies point to old age of TRF, low extinction and high speciation rates as credible drivers of TRF hyperdiversity. There is less evidence for immigration and ecological limits, but these cannot be dismissed owing to the limited number of studies. Rapid methodological developments in DNA sequencing, macroevolutionary analysis and the integration of phylogenetics with other disciplines may improve our grasp of TRF hyperdiversity in the future. However, such advances are critically dependent on fundamental systematic research, yielding numerous, additional, well-sampled phylogenies of TRF lineages.

An all-evidence species-level supertree for the palms (Arecaceae).

Several attempts have been made to generate complete species-level phylogenies for large clades, enabling comprehensive analyses of ecological or evolutionary hypotheses at the species level. No such phylogeny has, however, been generated for any major plant group yet, but here we generate such a phylogeny for the palm family (Arecaceae). We do this using a novel Bayesian approach, estimating the validity of intra-generic taxonomic groupings as topological constraints to assist in placing species without genetic or morphological data. From these we implement those that are supported by genetic or morphological data for a given genus or for related genera. The intergeneric relationships in our new phylogeny are surprisingly different from earlier phylogenies in the placement of genera within tribes, but largely identical to previous findings in the deeper branches in the phylogeny, pointing to the need for incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty in analyses based on this phylogeny. Initial analyses of the new phylogeny suggest non-constancy in diversification rates over time within genera, with an apparent increase in diversification rate over time, but no evidence for any geographic variation in the magnitude of this increase. We hope that our study will stimulate further evolutionary or ecological studies using palms as study organisms as well as discussions of the optimal way to place the many species without genetic or morphological data.

Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras.

When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly.

Cenozoic imprints on the phylogenetic structure of palm species assemblages worldwide.

Despite long-standing interest in the origin and maintenance of species diversity, little is known about historical drivers of species assemblage structure at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we use global species distribution data, a dated genus-level phylogeny, and paleo-reconstructions of biomes and climate to examine Cenozoic imprints on the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages of palms (Arecaceae), a species-rich plant family characteristic of tropical ecosystems. We find a strong imprint on phylogenetic clustering due to geographic isolation and in situ diversification, especially in the Neotropics and on islands with spectacular palm radiations (e.g., Madagascar, Hawaii, and Cuba). Phylogenetic overdispersion on mainlands and islands corresponds to biotic interchange areas. Differences in the degree of phylogenetic clustering among biogeographic realms are related to differential losses of tropical rainforests during the Cenozoic, but not to the cumulative area of tropical rainforest over geological time. A largely random phylogenetic assemblage structure in Africa coincides with severe losses of rainforest area, especially after the Miocene. More recent events also appear to be influential: phylogenetic clustering increases with increasing intensity of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climatic oscillations in South America and, to a lesser extent, Africa, indicating that specific clades perform better in climatically unstable regions. Our results suggest that continental isolation (in combination with limited long-distance dispersal) and changing climate and habitat loss throughout the Cenozoic have had strong impacts on the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages in the tropics.

Ecological traits influence the phylogenetic structure of bird species co-occurrences worldwide.

The extent to which species' ecological and phylogenetic relatedness shape their co-occurrence patterns at large spatial scales remains poorly understood. By quantifying phylogenetic assemblage structure within geographic ranges of >8000 bird species, we show that global co-occurrence patterns are linked - after accounting for regional effects - to key ecological traits reflecting diet, mobility, body size and climatic preference. We found that co-occurrences of carnivorous, migratory and cold-climate species are phylogenetically clustered, whereas nectarivores, herbivores, frugivores and invertebrate eaters tend to be more phylogenetically overdispersed. Preference for open or forested habitats appeared to be independent from the level of phylogenetic clustering. Our results advocate for an extension of the tropical niche conservatism hypothesis to incorporate ecological and life-history traits beyond the climatic niche. They further offer a novel species-oriented perspective on how biogeographic and evolutionary legacies interact with ecological traits to shape global patterns of species coexistence in birds.

Repeated upslope biome shifts in Saxifraga during late-Cenozoic climate cooling.

Mountains are among the most biodiverse places on Earth, and plant lineages that inhabit them have some of the highest speciation rates ever recorded. Plant diversity within the alpine zone - the elevation above which trees cannot grow-contributes significantly to overall diversity within mountain systems, but the origins of alpine plant diversity are poorly understood. Here, we quantify the processes that generate alpine plant diversity and their changing dynamics through time in Saxifraga (Saxifragaceae), an angiosperm genus that occurs predominantly in mountain systems. We present a time-calibrated molecular phylogenetic tree for the genus that is inferred from 329 low-copy nuclear loci and incorporates 73% (407) of known species. We show that upslope biome shifts into the alpine zone are considerably more prevalent than dispersal of alpine specialists between regions, and that the rate of upslope biome shifts increased markedly in the last 5 Myr, a timeframe concordant with a cooling and fluctuating climate that is likely to have increased the extent of the alpine zone. Furthermore, alpine zone specialists have lower speciation rates than generalists that occur inside and outside the alpine zone, and major speciation rate increases within Saxifraga significantly pre-date increased rates of upslope biome shifts. Specialisation to the alpine zone is not therefore associated with speciation rate increases. Taken together, this study presents a quantified and broad scale perspective of processes underpinning alpine plant diversity.

Occurrence-based diversity estimation reveals macroecological and conservation knowledge gaps for global woody plants.

Incomplete sampling of species' geographic distributions has challenged biogeographers for many years to precisely quantify global-scale biodiversity patterns. After correcting for the spatial inequality of sample completeness, we generated a global species diversity map for woody angiosperms (82,974 species, 13,959,780 occurrence records). The standardized diversity estimated more pronounced latitudinal and longitudinal diversity gradients than the raw data and improved the spatial prediction of diversity based on environmental factors. We identified areas with potentially high species richness and rarity that are poorly explored, unprotected, and threatened by increasing human pressure: They are distributed mostly at low latitudes across central South America, Central Africa, subtropical China, and Indomalayan islands. These priority areas for botanical exploration can help to efficiently fill spatial knowledge gaps for better describing the status of biodiversity and improve the effectiveness of the protected area network for global woody plant conservation.