The Expression Profiles of lncRNAs Are Associated with Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Resistance in Locally Advanced, Luminal B-Type Breast Cancer.

lncRNAs are noncoding transcripts with tissue and cancer specificity. Particularly, in breast cancer, lncRNAs exhibit subtype-specific expression; they are particularly upregulated in luminal tumors. However, no gene signature-based laboratory tests have been developed for luminal breast cancer identification or the differential diagnosis of luminal tumors, since no luminal A- or B-specific genes have been identified. Particularly, luminal B patients are of clinical interest, since they have the most variable response to neoadjuvant treatment; thus, it is necessary to develop diagnostic and predictive biomarkers for these patients to optimize treatment decision-making and improve treatment quality. In this study, we analyzed the lncRNA expression profiles of breast cancer cell lines and patient tumor samples from RNA-Seq data to identify an lncRNA signature specific for luminal phenotypes. We identified an lncRNA signature consisting of LINC01016, GATA3-AS1, MAPT-IT1, and DSCAM-AS1 that exhibits luminal subtype-specific expression; among these lncRNAs, GATA3-AS1 is associated with the presence of residual disease (Wilcoxon test, p < 0.05), which is related to neoadjuvant chemotherapy resistance in luminal B breast cancer patients. Furthermore, analysis of GATA3-AS1 expression using RNA in situ hybridization (RNA ISH) demonstrated that this lncRNA is detectable in histological slides. Similar to estrogen receptors and Ki67, both commonly detected biomarkers, GATA3-AS1 proves to be a suitable predictive biomarker for clinical application in breast cancer laboratory tests.

A Molecular Characterization of the Allelic Expression of the BRCA1 Founder Δ9-12 Pathogenic Variant and Its Potential Clinical Relevance in Hereditary Cancer.

Hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome is a genetic condition that increases the risk of breast cancer by 80% and that of ovarian cancer by 40%. The most common pathogenic variants (PVs) causing HBOC occur in the BRCA1 gene, with more than 3850 reported mutations in the gene sequence. The prevalence of specific PVs in BRCA1 has increased across populations due to the effect of founder mutations. Therefore, when a founder mutation is identified, it becomes key to improving cancer risk characterization and effective screening protocols. The only founder mutation described in the Mexican population is the deletion of exons 9 to 12 of BRCA1 (BRCA1Δ9-12), and its description focuses on the gene sequence, but no transcription profiles have been generated for individuals who carry this gene. In this study, we describe the transcription profiles of cancer patients and healthy individuals who were heterozygous for PV BRCA1Δ9-12 by analyzing the differential expression of both alleles compared with the homozygous BRCA1 control group using RT-qPCR, and we describe the isoforms produced by the BRCA1 wild-type and BRCA1Δ9-12 alleles using nanopore long-sequencing. Using the Kruskal-Wallis test, our results showed a similar transcript expression of the wild-type allele between the healthy heterozygous group and the homozygous BRCA1 control group. An association between the recurrence and increased expression of both alleles in HBOC patients was also observed. An analysis of the sequences indicated four wild-type isoforms with diagnostic potential for discerning individuals who carry the PV BRCA1Δ9-12 and identifying which of them has developed cancer.

Vaccination practices in pediatric transplantation: A survey among member centers of the European reference network TransplantChild.

BACKGROUND: There is considerable variation in vaccination practices between pediatric transplant centers. This study aims to evaluate active immunization attitudes and practices among ERN-TransplantChild centers and identify potential areas of improvement that could be addressed by shared evidence-based protocols. METHODS: A cross-sectional questionnaire of attitudes and practices toward immunization of pediatric SOT and HSCT candidates and recipients was sent to a representative member of multidisciplinary teams from 27 European centers belonging to the ERN-TransplantChild. RESULTS: A total of 28/62 SOT programs and 6/12 HSCT programs across 21 European centers participated. A quarter of centers did not have an on-site protocol for the immunizations. At the time of transplantation, pediatric candidates were fully immunized (80%-100%) in 57% and 33% of the SOT and HSCT programs. Variations in the time between vaccine administration and admission to the waiting list were reported between the centers, with 2 weeks for inactivated vaccines and variable time (2-4 weeks) for live-attenuated vaccines (LAVs). Almost all sites recommended immunization in the post-transplant period, with a time window of 4-8 months for the inactivated vaccines and 16-24 months for MMR and Varicella vaccines. Only five sites administer LAVs after transplantation, with seroconversion evaluated in 80% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The immunization coverage of European pediatric transplant recipients is still inconsistent and far from adequate. This survey is a starting point for developing shared evidence-based immunization protocols for safe vaccination among pediatric transplant centers and generating new research studies.

The Clinical Utility of lncRNAs and Their Application as Molecular Biomarkers in Breast Cancer.

Given their tumor-specific and stage-specific gene expression, long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have demonstrated to be potential molecular biomarkers for diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment response. Particularly, the lncRNAs DSCAM-AS1 and GATA3-AS1 serve as examples of this because of their high subtype-specific expression profile in luminal B-like breast cancer. This makes them candidates to use as molecular biomarkers in clinical practice. However, lncRNA studies in breast cancer are limited in sample size and are restricted to the determination of their biological function, which represents an obstacle for its inclusion as molecular biomarkers of clinical utility. Nevertheless, due to their expression specificity among diseases, such as cancer, and their stability in body fluids, lncRNAs are promising molecular biomarkers that could improve the reliability, sensitivity, and specificity of molecular techniques used in clinical diagnosis. The development of lncRNA-based diagnostics and lncRNA-based therapeutics will be useful in routine medical practice to improve patient clinical management and quality of life.

Epitweetr: Early warning of public health threats using Twitter data.

BackgroundThe European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) systematically collates information from sources to rapidly detect early public health threats. The lack of a freely available, customisable and automated early warning tool using data from Twitter prompted the ECDC to develop epitweetr, which collects, geolocates and aggregates tweets generating signals and email alerts.AimThis study aims to compare the performance of epitweetr to manually monitoring tweets for the purpose of early detecting public health threats.MethodsWe calculated the general and specific positive predictive value (PPV) of signals generated by epitweetr between 19 October and 30 November 2020. Sensitivity, specificity, timeliness and accuracy and performance of tweet geolocation and signal detection algorithms obtained from epitweetr and the manual monitoring of 1,200 tweets were compared.ResultsThe epitweetr geolocation algorithm had an accuracy of 30.1% at national, and 25.9% at subnational levels. The signal detection algorithm had 3.0% general PPV and 74.6% specific PPV. Compared to manual monitoring, epitweetr had greater sensitivity (47.9% and 78.6%, respectively), and reduced PPV (97.9% and 74.6%, respectively). Median validation time difference between 16 common events detected by epitweetr and manual monitoring was -48.6 hours (IQR: -102.8 to -23.7).ConclusionEpitweetr has shown sufficient performance as an early warning tool for public health threats using Twitter data. Since epitweetr is a free, open-source tool with configurable settings and a strong automated component, it is expected to increase in usability and usefulness to public health experts.

Transcriptomics and RNA-Based Therapeutics as Potential Approaches to Manage SARS-CoV-2 Infection.

SARS-CoV-2 is a coronavirus family member that appeared in China in December 2019 and caused the disease called COVID-19, which was declared a pandemic in 2020 by the World Health Organization. In recent months, great efforts have been made in the field of basic and clinical research to understand the biology and infection processes of SARS-CoV-2. In particular, transcriptome analysis has contributed to generating new knowledge of the viral sequences and intracellular signaling pathways that regulate the infection and pathogenesis of SARS-CoV-2, generating new information about its biology. Furthermore, transcriptomics approaches including spatial transcriptomics, single-cell transcriptomics and direct RNA sequencing have been used for clinical applications in monitoring, detection, diagnosis, and treatment to generate new clinical predictive models for SARS-CoV-2. Consequently, RNA-based therapeutics and their relationship with SARS-CoV-2 have emerged as promising strategies to battle the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic with the assistance of novel approaches such as CRISPR-CAS, ASOs, and siRNA systems. Lastly, we discuss the importance of precision public health in the management of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 and establish that the fusion of transcriptomics, RNA-based therapeutics, and precision public health will allow a linkage for developing health systems that facilitate the acquisition of relevant clinical strategies for rapid decision making to assist in the management and treatment of the SARS-CoV-2-infected population to combat this global public health problem.

Automated digital reporting of clinical laboratory information to national public health surveillance systems, results of a EU/EEA survey, 2018.

BackgroundTimely reporting of microbiology test results is essential for infection management. Automated, machine-to-machine (M2M) reporting of diagnostic and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) data from laboratory information management systems (LIMS) to public health agencies improves timeliness and completeness of communicable disease surveillance.AimWe surveyed microbiology data reporting practices for national surveillance of EU-notifiable diseases in European Union/European Economic Area (EU/EEA) countries in 2018.MethodsEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) National Microbiology and Surveillance Focal Points completed a questionnaire on the modalities and scope of clinical microbiology laboratory data reporting.ResultsComplete data were provided for all 30 EU/EEA countries. Clinical laboratories used a LIMS in 28 countries. LIMS data on EU-notifiable diseases and AMR were M2M-reported to the national level in 14 and nine countries, respectively. In the 14 countries, associated demographic data reported allowed the de-duplication of patient reports. In 13 countries, M2M-reported data were used for cluster detection at the national level. M2M laboratory data reporting had been validated against conventional surveillance methods in six countries, and replaced those in five. Barriers to M2M reporting included lack of information technology support and financial incentives.ConclusionM2M-reported laboratory data were used for national public health surveillance and alert purposes in nearly half of the EU/EEA countries in 2018. Reported data on infectious diseases and AMR varied in extent and disease coverage across countries and laboratories. Improving automated laboratory-based surveillance will depend on financial and regulatory incentives, and harmonisation of health information and communication systems.

Effect of heavy metals on seed germination and seedling development of Nama aff. stenophylla collected on the slope of a mine tailing dump.

Nama aff. stenophylla plants grow on mining waste abandoned 100 years ago, exposed to high concentrations of heavy metals. Accumulation of heavy metals in plant biomass has been related to the phyto-accessible fractions of these, so we assessed the effect of those heavy metals in different concentrations on the germination and development of seedlings. The seed traits were characterized with optical and scanning electron microscope. The seeds were assessed for dormancy by pre-germinative treatments, germination percentage, tolerance index regarding heavy metals, and the elongation of seedlings under three concentrations of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), Iron (Fe), lead (Pb), and zinc (Zn) (phyto-accessible [Ph], five times higher [Hi] and lower [Lo]). The seeds have no dormancy, and the heavy metals did not affect the embryo. Pb, Cd, and As, affected the germination percentage more (p < 0.005). The treatments that most affected seedling elongation were Zn [Hi], Cd [Hi], Pb [Lo], Zn [Ph], Pb [Hi], Zn [Lo] (p < 0.005). The seedlings cells alterations were associated with the reduction in length, although larger cortical cells may be due to heavy metal compartmentalization in vacuoles. The seeds and seedlings showed tolerance to high concentrations of Fe and As, and to phyto-accessible of As, Cd, Pb, and Fe.

Health crisis in Venezuela: Status of communicable diseases and implications for the European Union and European Economic Area, May 2019.

Re-emerging diseases outbreaks are being reported in Venezuela since 2012/13, following ongoing political and economic crisis. Healthcare system collapse has led to an increasing incidence and mortality from communicable diseases. Increasing movement of people between Venezuela and the European Union and European Economic Area (EU/EEA) creates a need for increased awareness of the infectious disease risks and requirements for appropriate investigation and treatment of individuals arriving from Venezuela; overall risk for EU/EEA citizens is low.

Genetic variation analysis in a follow-up study of gastric cancer precursor lesions confirms the association of MUC2 variants with the evolution of the lesions and identifies a significant association with NFKB1 and CD14.

Gastric carcinogenesis proceeds through a series of gastric cancer precursor lesions (GCPLs) leading to gastric cancer (GC) development. Although Helicobacter pylori infection initiates this process, genetic factors also play a role. We previously reported that genetic variability in MUC2 is associated with the evolution of GCPLs. In order to replicate previous results in an independent sample series and to explore whether genetic variability in other candidate genes plays a role in the evolution of GCPL, genomic DNA from 559 patients with GCPLs, recruited from 9 Spanish hospitals and followed for a mean of 12 years, was genotyped for 141 SNPs in 29 genes. After follow-up, 45.5% of the lesions remained stable, 37% regressed and 17.5% progressed to a more severe lesion. Genetic association with the evolution of the lesions (progression or regression) was analyzed by multinomial and binomial logistic regression. After correction for multiple comparisons, the results obtained confirmed the inverse association between MUC2 variants and the regression of the lesions. A significant association was also observed between NFKB1 and CD14 variants and the evolution of the lesions; interestingly, this association was with both progression and regression in the same direction, which could reflect the dual role of inflammation in cancer. Stratified analyses according to H. pylori virulence factors indicated some significant and differential effects but none of them passed the FDR test. These results confirm that genetic variability in MUC2, NFKB1 and CD14 may have a role in the evolution of the GCPLs along time and in gastric carcinogenesis.

Mortality risk disparities in children receiving chronic renal replacement therapy for the treatment of end-stage renal disease across Europe: an ESPN-ERA/EDTA registry analysis.

BACKGROUND: We explored the variation in country mortality rates in the paediatric population receiving renal replacement therapy across Europe, and estimated how much of this variation could be explained by patient-level and country-level factors. METHODS: In this registry analysis, we extracted patient data from the European Society for Paediatric Nephrology/European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ESPN/ERA-EDTA) Registry for 32 European countries. We included incident patients younger than 19 years receiving renal replacement therapy. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and the explained variation were modelled for patient-level and country-level factors with multilevel Cox regression. The primary outcome studied was all-cause mortality while on renal replacement therapy. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 31, 2013, the overall 5 year renal replacement therapy mortality rate was 15·8 deaths per 1000 patient-years (IQR 6·4-16·4). France had a mortality rate (9·2) of more than 3 SDs better, and Russia (35·2), Poland (39·9), Romania (47·4), and Bulgaria (68·6) had mortality rates more than 3 SDs worse than the European average. Public health expenditure was inversely associated with mortality risk (per SD increase, aHR 0·69, 95% CI 0·52-0·91) and explained 67% of the variation in renal replacement therapy mortality rates between countries. Child mortality rates showed a significant association with renal replacement therapy mortality, albeit mediated by macroeconomics (eg, neonatal mortality reduced from 1·31 [95% CI 1·13-1·53], p=0·0005, to 1·21 [0·97-1·51], p=0·10). After accounting for country distributions of patient age, the variation in renal replacement therapy mortality rates between countries increased by 21%. INTERPRETATION: Substantial international variation exists in paediatric renal replacement therapy mortality rates across Europe, most of which was explained by disparities in public health expenditure, which seems to limit the availability and quality of paediatric renal care. Differences between countries in their ability to accept and treat the youngest patients, who are the most complex and costly to treat, form an important source of disparity within this population. Our findings can be used by policy makers and health-care providers to explore potential strategies to help reduce these health disparities. FUNDING: ERA-EDTA and ESPN.

A morphological database for 606 Colombian bird species.

Colombia is the country with the highest bird diversity in the world. Despite active research in ornithology, compelling morphological information of most bird species is still sparse. However, morphological information is the baseline to understand how species respond to environmental variation and how ecosystems respond to species loss. As part of a national initiative, the Instituto Alexander von Humboldt in collaboration with 12 Colombian institutions and seven biological collections, measured up to 15 morphological traits of 9,892 individuals corresponding to 606 species: 3,492 from individuals captured in field and 6,400 from museum specimens. Species measured are mainly distributed in high Andean forest, páramo, and wetland ecosystems. Seven ornithological collections in Colombia and 18 páramo complexes throughout Colombia were visited from 2013 to 2015. The morphological traits involved measurements from bill (total and exposed culmen, bill width and depth), wing (length, area, wingspan, and the distance between longest primary and longest secondary), tail (length and shape), tarsus (length), hallux (length and claw hallux), and mass. The number of measured specimens per species was variable, ranging from 1 to 321 individuals with a median of four individuals per species. Overall, this database gathered morphological information for >30% of Colombian bird diversity. No copyright, proprietary, or cost restrictions apply; the data should be cited appropriately when used.

"Diazepam loading": ¿Can a strategy for preventing alcohol withdrawal be used to treat benzodiazepine use disorder? / "Carga de diazepam": ¿puede una estrategia para prevenir abstinencia al alcohol usarse con éxito para tratar la dependencia a benzodiacepinas?

Benzodiazepines (BZDs) are central nervous system (CNS) depressants which are widely used to treat insomnia and anxiety, despite having long-term adverse side effects. (Fortea González, Oriolo, Balcells Oliveró, Sánchez Del Valle & Castellvi, 2017). As with alcohol, continued use can lead to tolerance and dependence phenomena. Discontinuation in such cases can produce abstinence symptoms such as tremors, anxiety, seizures and, occasionally, death (Brett y Murnion, 2015).

Las benzodiacepinas se usan para tratar la abstinencia alcohólica siguiendo varias estrategias: dosis descendiente, dosis de carga, tratamiento en función de sintomatología. La carga de diazepam ha demostrado ser un tratamiento válido para la abstinencia alcohólica en ensayos controlados aleatorizados. Tras una búsqueda bibliográfica no sistemática, no hemos encontrado antecedentes en la literatura de una estrategia de carga de diazepam sin posterior administración de benzodiacepinas para el tratamiento de la abstinencia a éstas. Describimos el caso de una desintoxicación de benzodiacepinas utilizando una situación preestablecida de carga de diazepam. La paciente tenía una larga historia de dependencia a benzodiazepinas que se había tratado previamente con escaso éxito con dosis descendiente de clonazepam. El día anterior al ingreso hospitalario, realizó sobreingesta de unos 200 mg de diazepam con finalidad suicida. Se decidió utilizar una estrategia de carga de diazepam para tratar el síndrome abstinencial. Así, no se administraron posteriores dosis de benzodiacepinas, considerando la sobreingesta de 200 mg de diazepam como dosis de carga única. En esta experiencia, la carga de diazepam resultó ser una estrategia válida y rápida para tratar una dependencia a las benzodiacepinas resistente. Los trastornos por uso de benzodiacepinas son un relevante problema de salud pública, en contraste con los escasos avances obtenidos en su tratamiento. Tal vez valdría la pena empezar por revisar y actualizar antiguas estrategias.

Thermal buffering capacity of the germination phenotype across the environmental envelope of the Cactaceae.

Recruitment from seeds is among the most vulnerable stage for plants as global temperatures change. While germination is the means by which the vast majority of the world's flora regenerate naturally, a framework for accurately predicting which species are at greatest risk of germination failure during environmental perturbation is lacking. Taking a physiological approach, we assess how one family, the Cactaceae, may respond to global temperature change based on the thermal buffering capacity of the germination phenotype. We selected 55 cactus species from the Americas, all geo-referenced seed collections, reflecting the broad environmental envelope of the family across 70° of latitude and 3700 m of altitude. We then generated empirical data of the thermal germination response from which we estimated the minimum (Tb ), optimum (To ) and ceiling (Tc ) temperature for germination and the thermal time (θ50 ) for each species based on the linearity of germination rate with temperature. Species with the highest Tb and lowest Tc germinated fastest, and the interspecific sensitivity of the germination rate to temperature, as assessed through θ50 , varied tenfold. A left-skewed asymmetry in the germination rate with temperature was relatively common but the unimodal pattern typical of crop species failed for nearly half of the species due to insensitivity to temperature change at To . For 32 fully characterized species, seed thermal parameters correlated strongly with the mean temperature of the wettest quarter of the seed collection sites. By projecting the mean temperature of the wettest quarter under two climate change scenarios, we predict under the least conservative scenario (+3.7°C) that 25% of cactus species will have reduced germination performance, whilst the remainder will have an efficiency gain, by the end of the 21st century.

Determinants and Drivers of Infectious Disease Threat Events in Europe.

Infectious disease threat events (IDTEs) are increasing in frequency worldwide. We analyzed underlying drivers of 116 IDTEs detected in Europe during 2008-2013 by epidemic intelligence at the European Centre of Disease Prevention and Control. Seventeen drivers were identified and categorized into 3 groups: globalization and environment, sociodemographic, and public health systems. A combination of >2 drivers was responsible for most IDTEs. The driver category globalization and environment contributed to 61% of individual IDTEs, and the top 5 individual drivers of all IDTEs were travel and tourism, food and water quality, natural environment, global trade, and climate. Hierarchical cluster analysis of all drivers identified travel and tourism as a distinctly separate driver. Monitoring and modeling such disease drivers can help anticipate future IDTEs and strengthen control measures. More important, intervening directly on these underlying drivers can diminish the likelihood of the occurrence of an IDTE and reduce the associated human and economic costs.

Evaluation of Angiopoietin-2 as a biomarker in gastric cancer: results from the randomised phase III AVAGAST trial.

BACKGROUND: In the phase III AVAGAST trial, the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy improved progression-free survival (PFS) but not overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced gastric cancer. We studied the role of Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), a key driver of tumour angiogenesis, metastasis and resistance to antiangiogenic treatment, as a biomarker. METHODS: Previously untreated, advanced gastric cancer patients were randomly assigned to receive bevacizumab (n=387) or placebo (n=387) in combination with chemotherapy. Plasma collected at baseline and at progression was analysed by ELISA. The role of Ang-2 as a prognostic and a predictive biomarker of bevacizumab efficacy was studied using a Cox proportional hazards model. Logistic regression analysis was applied for correlations with metastasis. RESULTS: Median baseline plasma Ang-2 levels were lower in Asian (2143 pg ml(-1)) vs non-Asian patients (3193 pg ml(-1)), P<0.0001. Baseline plasma Ang-2 was identified as an independent prognostic marker for OS but did not predict bevacizumab efficacy alone or in combination with baseline VEGF. Baseline plasma Ang-2 correlated with the frequency of liver metastasis (LM) at any time: Odds ratio per 1000 pg ml(-1) increase: 1.19; 95% CI 1.10-1.29; P<0.0001 (non-Asians) and 1.37; 95% CI 1.13-1.64; P=0.0010 (Asians). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline plasma Ang-2 is a novel prognostic biomarker for OS in advanced gastric cancer strongly associated with LM. Differences in Ang-2 mediated vascular response may, in part, account for outcome differences between Asian and non-Asian patients; however, data have to be further validated. Ang-2 is a promising drug target in gastric cancer.

Incomplete type of intestinal metaplasia has the highest risk to progress to gastric cancer: results of the Spanish follow-up multicenter study.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: In high or moderate risk populations, periodic surveillance of patients at risk of progression from gastric precursor lesions (PL) to gastric cancer (GC) is the most effective strategy for reducing the burden of GC. Incomplete type of intestinal metaplasia (IIM) may be considered as the best candidate, but it is still controversial and more research is needed. To further assess the progression of subtypes of IM as predictors of GC occurrence. METHODS: A follow-up study was carried-out including 649 patients, diagnosed with PL between 1995-2004 in 9 participating hospitals from Spain, and who repeated the biopsy during 2011-2013. Medical information and habits were collected through a questionnaire. Based on morphology, IM was sub-classified as complete (small intestinal type, CIM) and incomplete (colonic type, IIM). Analyses were done using Cox (HR) models. RESULTS: At baseline, 24% of patients had atrophic gastritis, 38% CIM, 34% IIM, and 4% dysplasia. Mean follow-up was 12 years. 24 patients (3.7%) developed a gastric adenocarcinoma during follow-up. The incidence rate of GC was 2.76 and 5.76 per 1,000 person-years for those with CIM and IIM, respectively. The HR of progression to CG was 2.75 (95% CI 1.06-6.26) for those with IIM compared with those with CIM at baseline, after adjusting for sex, age, smoking, family history of GC and use of NSAIDs. CONCLUSIONS: IIM is the PL with highest risk to progress to GC. Sub-typing of IM is a valid procedure for the identification of high risk patients that require more intensive surveillance.

Ontogenetic Changes in Azoxyglycoside Levels in the Leaves of Dioon edule Lindl.

Plants have multiple strategies, including phytochemicals that protect their vulnerable tissues against pathogens and herbivores. Dioon edule, like all cycads, possess unique azoxy-type compounds, azoxyglycosides (AZGs) as a chemical defense; however, the ontogenetic variability of these compounds in this long-lived cycad is unknown. Here, we investigated the effects of plant age, sex, genotype and individual heterozygosity on AZG levels in mature leaves of wild D. edule populations from eastern Mexico. Individuals were divided into three ontogenetic stages: seedlings, juveniles and adults. We established overall leaf quality by quantifying pigments associated with photosynthesis; chlorophylla, chlorophyllb and lutein. Leaf chlorophylla levels were higher in seedlings compared to adult cycads. Plants were genotyped using 11 microsatellite markers and foliar AZG levels were quantified by HPLC. AZG levels do not correlate with plant genotype or the individual's heterozygosity. Genetic analysis identified a distinction between lowland and highland individuals; foliar AZG levels were higher in lowland adult cycads compared to highland individuals. In both populations, the highest AZG levels were found in seedlings compared to adult cycads. These young cycads are highly reliant on their few leaves since seedlings bear one or two leaves for the first years of their life and, thus, are unlikely to recover from defoliation. The results suggest that cycad leaves with a greater nutritive content and a higher value for long-term survival are better protected with higher AZG levels. Female adult cycads have higher AZG levels compared to males, suggesting that the benefits of defense could also be linked to reproductive costs.

Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: implications for blood safety practices.

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus. METHODS: With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population. RESULTS: External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities.