Circulating metabolomic markers linking diabetic kidney disease and incident cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: analyses from the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to describe the metabolome in diabetic kidney disease (DKD) and its association with incident CVD in type 2 diabetes, and identify prognostic biomarkers. METHODS: From a prospective cohort of individuals with type 2 diabetes, baseline sera (N=1991) were quantified for 170 metabolites using NMR spectroscopy with median 5.2 years of follow-up. Associations of chronic kidney disease (CKD, eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) or severely increased albuminuria with each metabolite were examined using linear regression, adjusted for confounders and multiplicity. Associations between DKD (CKD or severely increased albuminuria)-related metabolites and incident CVD were examined using Cox regressions. Metabolomic biomarkers were identified and assessed for CVD prediction and replicated in two independent cohorts. RESULTS: At false discovery rate (FDR)<0.05, 156 metabolites were associated with DKD (151 for CKD and 128 for severely increased albuminuria), including apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins, HDL, fatty acids, phenylalanine, tyrosine, albumin and glycoprotein acetyls. Over 5.2 years of follow-up, 75 metabolites were associated with incident CVD at FDR<0.05. A model comprising age, sex and three metabolites (albumin, triglycerides in large HDL and phospholipids in small LDL) performed comparably to conventional risk factors (C statistic 0.765 vs 0.762, p=0.893) and adding the three metabolites further improved CVD prediction (C statistic from 0.762 to 0.797, p=0.014) and improved discrimination and reclassification. The 3-metabolite score was validated in independent Chinese and Dutch cohorts. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Altered metabolomic signatures in DKD are associated with incident CVD and improve CVD risk stratification.

1-year weight change after diabetes diagnosis and long-term incidence and sustainability of remission of type 2 diabetes in real-world settings in Hong Kong: An observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trials have demonstrated that remission of type 2 diabetes can be achieved following sustained weight loss. However, the feasibility of achieving diabetes remission through weight management in real-world settings remains unclear. In this study, we aimed to examine the association of weight change at 1 year after diabetes diagnosis with long-term incidence and sustainability of type 2 diabetes remission in real-world settings in Hong Kong. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was a population-based observational cohort study. The territory-wide Risk Assessment and Management Programme for Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) provides regular comprehensive assessments of metabolic control and complication screening for people with diabetes in Hong Kong. We included 37,326 people with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes who were enrolled in the RAMP-DM between 2000 and 2017, followed until 2019. Diabetes remission was defined as 2 consecutive HbA1c <6.5% measurements at least 6 months apart in the absence of glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) and with no record of GLDs at least 3 months before these measurements. During a median follow-up of 7.9 years, 6.1% (2,279) of people achieved diabetes remission, with an incidence rate of 7.8 (95% CI: 7.5, 8.1) per 1,000 person-years. After adjusting for age at diabetes diagnosis, sex, assessment year, body mass index, other metabolic indices, smoking, alcohol drinking, and medication use, the hazard ratio (HR) for diabetes remission was 3.28 (95% CI: 2.75, 3.92; p < 0.001) for people with ≥10% weight loss within 1 year of diagnosis, 2.29 (95% CI: 2.03, 2.59; p < 0.001) for those with 5% to 9.9% weight loss, and 1.34 (95% CI: 1.22, 1.47; p < 0.001) for those with 0% to 4.9% weight loss compared to people with weight gain. During a median follow-up of 3.1 years, 67.2% (1,531) of people who had achieved diabetes remission returned to hyperglycaemia, with an incidence rate of 184.8 (95% CI: 175.5, 194.0) per 1,000 person-years. The adjusted HR for returning to hyperglycaemia was 0.52 (95% CI: 0.41, 0.65; p < 0.001) for people with ≥10% weight loss, 0.78 (95% CI: 0.68, 0.92; p = 0.002) for those with 5% to 9.9% weight loss, and 0.90 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.01; p = 0.073) for those with 0% to 4.9% weight loss compared to people with weight gain. Diabetes remission was associated with a 31% (HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.52, 0.93; p = 0.014) decreased risk of all-cause mortality. The main limitation of the study is that the reliability of HbA1c used to define diabetes remission can be affected by other medical conditions. Furthermore, we did not have data on bariatric surgery. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, greater weight loss within the first year of diabetes diagnosis was associated with an increased likelihood of achieving diabetes remission and a decreased risk of returning to hyperglycaemia among those who had achieved diabetes remission. However, both the incidence of diabetes remission and the probability of its long-term sustainability were low with conventional management in real-world settings, in an era when the importance of weight loss was not fully appreciated. Our study provides evidence for policymakers to design and implement early weight management interventions and diabetes remission initiatives.

Monogenic diabetes in a Chinese population with young-onset diabetes: A 17-year prospective follow-up study in Hong Kong.

AIMS: Asians have a high prevalence of young-onset diabetes, but the pattern of monogenic diabetes is unknown. We aimed to determine the prevalence of monogenic diabetes in Chinese patients with young-onset diabetes and compare the clinical characteristics and outcome between patients with and without monogenic diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We sequenced a targeted panel of 33 genes related to monogenic diabetes in 1021 Chinese patients with non-type 1 diabetes diagnosed at age ≤40 years. Incident complications including cardiovascular disease (CVD), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and all-cause death were captured since enrolment (1995-2012) until 2019. RESULTS: In this cohort (mean ± SD age at diagnosis: 33.0 ± 6.0 years, median[IQR] diabetes duration 7.0[1.0-15.0] years at baseline, 44.9% men), 22(2.2%, 95% confidence interval[CI] 1.4%-3.2%) had monogenic diabetes. Pathogenic (P) or likely pathogenic (LP) variants were detected in GCK (n = 6), HNF1A (n = 9), HNF4A (n = 1), PLIN1 (n = 1) and PPARG (n = 2), together with copy number variations in HNF1B (n = 3). Over a median follow-up of 17.1 years, 5(22.7%) patients with monogenic diabetes (incidence rate 12.3[95% CI 5.1-29.4] per 1000 person-years) versus 254(25.4%) without monogenic diabetes (incidence rate 16.7[95% CI 14.8-18.9] per 1000 person-years) developed the composite outcome of CVD, ESKD and/or death (p = 0.490). The multivariable Cox model did not show any difference in hazards for composite events between groups. CONCLUSIONS: In Chinese with young-onset non-type 1 diabetes, at least 2% of cases were contributed by monogenic diabetes, over 80% of which were accounted for by P/LP variants in common MODY genes. The incidence of diabetes complications was similar between patients with and without monogenic diabetes.

Age-specific population attributable risk factors for all-cause and cause-specific mortality in type 2 diabetes: An analysis of a 6-year prospective cohort study of over 360,000 people in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes has increased in both young and old people. We examined age-specific associations and population attributable fractions (PAFs) of risk factors for all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We analysed data from 360,202 Chinese with type 2 diabetes who participated in a territory-wide diabetes complication screening programme in Hong Kong between January 2000 and December 2019. We compared the hazard ratios and PAFs of eight risk factors, including three major comorbidities (cardiovascular disease [CVD], chronic kidney disease [CKD], all-site cancer) and five modifiable risk factors (suboptimal HbA1c, suboptimal blood pressure, suboptimal low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, and suboptimal weight), for mortality across four age groups (18 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, and ≥75 years). During a median 6.0 years of follow-up, 44,396 people died, with cancer, CVD, and pneumonia being the leading causes of death. Despite a higher absolute mortality risk in older people (crude all-cause mortality rate: 59.7 versus 596.2 per 10,000 person-years in people aged 18 to 54 years versus those aged ≥75 years), the relative risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality associated with most risk factors was higher in younger than older people, after mutually adjusting for the eight risk factors and other potential confounders including sex, diabetes duration, lipid profile, and medication use. The eight risk factors explained a larger proportion of mortality events in the youngest (PAF: 51.6%, 95% confidence interval [CI] [39.1%, 64.0%], p < 0.001) than the oldest (PAF: 35.3%, 95% CI [27.2%, 43.4%], p < 0.001) age group. Suboptimal blood pressure (PAF: 16.9%, 95% CI [14.7%, 19.1%], p < 0.001) was the leading attributable risk factor for all-cause mortality in the youngest age group, while CKD (PAF: 15.2%, 95% CI [14.0%, 16.4%], p < 0.001) and CVD (PAF: 9.2%, 95% CI [8.3%, 10.1%], p < 0.001) were the leading attributable risk factors in the oldest age group. The analysis was restricted to Chinese, which might affect the generalisability to the global population with differences in risk profiles. Furthermore, PAFs were estimated under the assumption of a causal relationship between risk factors and mortality. However, reliable causality was difficult to establish in the observational study. CONCLUSIONS: Major comorbidities and modifiable risk factors were associated with a greater relative risk for mortality in younger than older people with type 2 diabetes and their associations with population mortality burden varied substantially by age. These findings highlight the importance of early control of blood pressure, which could reduce premature mortality in young people with type 2 diabetes and prevent the onset of later CKD and related mortality at older ages.

Age- and sex-specific hospital bed-day rates in people with and without type 2 diabetes: A territory-wide population-based cohort study of 1.5 million people in Hong Kong.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes affects multiple systems. We aimed to compare age- and sex-specific rates of all-cause and cause-specific hospital bed-days between people with and without type 2 diabetes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Data were provided by the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. We included 1,516,508 one-to-one matched people with incident type 2 diabetes (n = 758,254) and those without diabetes during the entire follow-up period (n = 758,254) between 2002 and 2018, followed until 2019. People with type 2 diabetes and controls were matched for age at index date (±2 years), sex, and index year (±2 years). We defined hospital bed-day rate as total inpatient bed-days divided by follow-up time. We constructed negative binominal regression models to estimate hospital bed-day rate ratios (RRs) by age at diabetes diagnosis and sex. All RRs were stratified by sex and adjusted for age and index year. During a median of 7.8 years of follow-up, 60.5% (n = 459,440) of people with type 2 diabetes and 56.5% (n = 428,296) of controls had a hospital admission for any cause, with a hospital bed-day rate of 3,359 bed-days and 2,350 bed-days per 1,000 person-years, respectively. All-cause hospital bed-day rate increased with increasing age in controls, but showed a J-shaped relationship with age in people with type 2 diabetes, with 38.4% of bed-days in those diagnosed <40 years caused by mental health disorders. Type 2 diabetes was associated with increased risks for a wide range of medical conditions, with an RR of 1.75 (95% CI [confidence interval] [1.73, 1.76]; p < 0.001) for all-cause hospital bed-days in men and 1.87 (95% CI [1.85, 1.89]; p < 0.001) in women. The RRs were greater in people with diabetes diagnosed at a younger than older age and varied by sex according to medical conditions. Sex differences were most notable for a higher RR for urinary tract infection and peptic ulcer, and a lower RR for chronic kidney disease and pancreatic disease in women than men. The main limitation of the study was that young people without diabetes in the database were unlikely to be representative of those in the Hong Kong general population with potential selection bias due to inclusion of individuals in need of medical care. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed that type 2 diabetes was associated with increased risks of hospital bed-days for a wide range of medical conditions, with an excess burden of mental health disorders in people diagnosed at a young age. Age and sex differences should be considered in planning preventive and therapeutic strategies for type 2 diabetes. Effective control of risk factors with a focus on mental health disorders are urgently needed in young people with type 2 diabetes. Healthcare systems and policymakers should consider allocating adequate resources and developing strategies to meet the mental health needs of young people with type 2 diabetes, including integrating mental health services into diabetes care.

Real world evidence of clinical predictors of glycaemic response to glucose-lowering drugs among Chinese with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS: To examine whether simple clinical features can predict the 1-year glycaemic response to glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) among Chinese with type 2 diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We used data from a diabetes risk assessment and complication screening programme and electronic medical records. We used linear regression models to examine the association between clinical features and 1-year glycaemic response to GLDs. RESULTS: Use of metformin (n = 15,433), sulphonylureas (SU) (n = 15,190), dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i) (n = 7947), thiazolidinedione (TZD) (n = 4107), and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) (n = 1883) were associated with a mean reduction of HbA1c ranging from 0.7% to 1.3% at one year. Men had a greater response to SU but a poorer response to metformin and TZD. Older age predicted a better response to all GLDs but not SGLT-2i, whereas increasing diabetes duration was associated with a poorer response to all GLDs except for DPP-4i. Obese patients responded greater to TZD and SGLT-2i but poorer to SU than those with normal weight. Patients with a higher level of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio had a greater glycaemic response to TZD but a smaller response to SU and DPP-4i. CONCLUSIONS: Glycaemic response to GLDs differed considerably by clinical features among Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes.

Relative leucocyte telomere length is associated with incident end-stage kidney disease and rapid decline of kidney function in type 2 diabetes: analysis from the Hong Kong Diabetes Register.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Few large-scale prospective studies have investigated associations between relative leucocyte telomere length (rLTL) and kidney dysfunction in individuals with type 2 diabetes. We examined relationships between rLTL and incident end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) and the slope of eGFR decline in Chinese individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: We studied 4085 Chinese individuals with type 2 diabetes observed between 1995 and 2007 in the Hong Kong Diabetes Register with stored baseline DNA and available follow-up data. rLTL was measured using quantitative PCR. ESKD was diagnosed based on the ICD-9 code and eGFR. RESULTS: In this cohort (mean ± SD age 54.3 ± 12.6 years) followed up for 14.1 ± 5.3 years, 564 individuals developed incident ESKD and had shorter rLTL at baseline (4.2 ± 1.2 vs 4.7 ± 1.2, p < 0.001) than the non-progressors (n = 3521). On Cox regression analysis, each ∆∆Ct decrease in rLTL was associated with an increased risk of incident ESKD (HR 1.21 [95% CI 1.13, 1.30], p < 0.001); the association remained significant after adjusting for baseline age, sex, HbA1c, lipids, renal function and other risk factors (HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.03, 1.19], p = 0.007). Shorter rLTL at baseline was associated with rapid decline in eGFR (>4% per year) during follow-up (unadjusted OR 1.22 [95% CI 1.15, 1.30], p < 0.001; adjusted OR 1.09 [95% CI 1.01, 1.17], p = 0.024). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: rLTL is independently associated with incident ESKD and rapid eGFR loss in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Telomere length may be a useful biomarker for the progression of kidney function and ESKD in type 2 diabetes.

Lifetime risk of developing diabetes in Chinese people with normoglycemia or prediabetes: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the lifetime risk of progression to diabetes in the Asian population. We determined remaining lifetime risk of diabetes and life years spent with diabetes in Chinese people with normoglycemia and prediabetes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using territory-wide diabetes surveillance data curated from electronic medical records of Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA), we conducted a population-based cohort study in 2,608,973 individuals followed from 2001 to 2019. Prediabetes and diabetes were identified based on laboratory measurements, diagnostic codes, and medication records. Remaining lifetime risk and life years spent with diabetes were estimated using Monte Carlo simulations with state transition probabilities based on a Markov chain model. Validations were performed using several sensitivity analyses and modified survival analysis. External replication was performed using the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS) cohort (2010 to 2015). The expected remaining lifetime risk of developing diabetes was 88.0 (95% confidence intervals: 87.2, 88.7)% for people with prediabetes and 65.9 (65.8, 65.9)% for people with normoglycemia at age 20 years. A 20-year-old person with prediabetes would live with diabetes for 32.5 (32.0, 33.1) years or 51.6 (50.8, 52.3)% of remaining life years, whereas a person with normoglycemia at 20 years would live 12.7 (12.7, 12.7) years with diabetes or 18.4 (18.4, 18.5)% of remaining life years. Women had a higher expected remaining lifetime risk and longer life years with diabetes compared to men. Results are subjected to possible selection bias as only people who undertook routine or opportunistic screening were included. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that Hong Kong, an economically developed city in Asia, is confronted with huge challenge of high lifetime risk of diabetes and long life years spent with diabetes, especially in people with prediabetes. Effective public health policies and targeted interventions for preventing progression to diabetes are urgently needed.

Nonalbuminuric Diabetic Kidney Disease and Risk of All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular and Kidney Outcomes in Type 2 Diabetes: Findings From the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Nonalbuminuric diabetic kidney disease (DKD) has become the prevailing DKD phenotype. We compared the risks of adverse outcomes among patients with this phenotype compared with other DKD phenotypes. STUDY DESIGN: Multicenter prospective cohort study. SETTINGS & PARTICIPANTS: 19,025 Chinese adults with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank. EXPOSURES: DKD phenotypes defined by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria: no DKD (no decreased eGFR or albuminuria), albuminuria without decreased eGFR, decreased eGFR without albuminuria, and albuminuria with decreased eGFR. OUTCOMES: All-cause mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, hospitalization for heart failure (HF), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression (incident kidney failure or sustained eGFR reduction ≥40%). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox proportional or cause-specific hazards models to estimate the relative risks of death, CVD, hospitalization for HF, and CKD progression. Multiple imputation was used for missing covariates. RESULTS: Mean participant age was 61.1 years, 58.3% were male, and mean diabetes duration was 11.1 years. During 54,260 person-years of follow-up, 438 deaths, 1,076 CVD events, 298 hospitalizations for HF, and 1,161 episodes of CKD progression occurred. Compared with the no-DKD subgroup, the subgroup with decreased eGFR without albuminuria had higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 1.59 [95% CI, 1.04-2.44]), hospitalization for HF (HR, 3.08 [95% CI, 1.82-5.21]), and CKD progression (HR, 2.37 [95% CI, 1.63-3.43]), but the risk of CVD was not significantly greater (HR, 1.14 [95% CI, 0.88-1.48]). The risks of death, CVD, hospitalization for HF, and CKD progression were higher in the setting of albuminuria with or without decreased eGFR. A sensitivity analysis that excluded participants with baseline eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 yielded similar findings. LIMITATIONS: Potential misclassification because of drug use. CONCLUSIONS: Nonalbuminuric DKD was associated with higher risks of hospitalization for HF and of CKD progression than no DKD, regardless of baseline eGFR.

Evaluating the impact of glucokinase activation on risk of cardiovascular disease: a Mendelian randomisation analysis.

BACKGROUND: Glucokinase activators (GKAs) are an emerging class of glucose lowering drugs that activate the glucose-sensing enzyme glucokinase (GK). Pending formal cardiovascular outcome trials, we applied two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) to investigate the impact of GK activation on risk of cardiovascular diseases. METHODS: We used independent genetic variants in or around the glucokinase gene meanwhile associated with HbA1c at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) in the Meta-Analyses of Glucose and Insulin-related traits Consortium study (N = 146,806; European ancestry) as instrumental variables (IVs) to mimic the effects of GK activation. We assessed the association between genetically proxied GK activation and the risk of coronary artery disease (CAD; 122,733 cases and 424,528 controls), peripheral arterial disease (PAD; 7098 cases and 206,541 controls), stroke (40,585 cases and 406,111 controls) and heart failure (HF; 47,309 cases and 930,014 controls), using genome-wide association study summary statistics of these outcomes in Europeans. We compared the effect estimates of genetically proxied GK activation with estimates of genetically proxied lower HbA1c on the same outcomes. We repeated our MR analyses in East Asians as validation. RESULTS: Genetically proxied GK activation was associated with reduced risk of CAD (OR 0.38 per 1% lower HbA1c, 95% CI 0.29-0.51, P = 8.77 × 10-11) and HF (OR 0.54 per 1% lower HbA1c, 95% CI 0.41-0.73, P = 3.55 × 10-5). The genetically proxied protective effects of GKA on CAD and HF exceeded those due to non-targeted HbA1c lowering. There was no causal relationship between genetically proxied GK activation and risk of PAD or stroke. The estimates in sensitivity analyses and in East Asians were generally consistent. CONCLUSIONS: GKAs may protect against CAD and HF which needs confirmation by long-term clinical trials.

High-density lipoprotein subclasses and cardiovascular disease and mortality in type 2 diabetes: analysis from the Hong Kong Diabetes Biobank.

OBJECTIVE: High-density lipoproteins (HDL) comprise particles of different size, density and composition and their vasoprotective functions may differ. Diabetes modifies the composition and function of HDL. We assessed associations of HDL size-based subclasses with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality and their prognostic utility. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: HDL subclasses by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy were determined in sera from 1991 fasted adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) consecutively recruited from March 2014 to February 2015 in Hong Kong. HDL was divided into small, medium, large and very large subclasses. Associations (per SD increment) with outcomes were evaluated using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. C-statistic, integrated discrimination index (IDI), and categorial and continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI) were used to assess predictive value. RESULTS: Over median (IQR) 5.2 (5.0-5.4) years, 125 participants developed incident CVD and 90 participants died. Small HDL particles (HDL-P) were inversely associated with incident CVD [hazard ratio (HR) 0.65 (95% CI 0.52, 0.81)] and all-cause mortality [0.47 (0.38, 0.59)] (false discovery rate < 0.05). Very large HDL-P were positively associated with all-cause mortality [1.75 (1.19, 2.58)]. Small HDL-P improved prediction of mortality [C-statistic 0.034 (0.013, 0.055), IDI 0.052 (0.014, 0.103), categorical NRI 0.156 (0.006, 0.252), and continuous NRI 0.571 (0.246, 0.851)] and CVD [IDI 0.017 (0.003, 0.038) and continuous NRI 0.282 (0.088, 0.486)] over the RECODe model. CONCLUSION: Small HDL-P were inversely associated with incident CVD and all-cause mortality and improved risk stratification for adverse outcomes in people with T2D. HDL-P may be used as markers for residual risk in people with T2D.

Associations of the HOMA2-%B and HOMA2-IR with progression to diabetes and glycaemic deterioration in young and middle-aged Chinese.

AIMS: Insulin deficiency (ID) and resistance (IR) contribute to progression from normal glucose tolerance to diabetes to insulin requirement although their relative contributions in young-onset diabetes is unknown. METHODS: We examined the associations of HOMA2 using fasting plasma glucose and C-peptide in Chinese aged 20-50 years with (1) progression to type 2 diabetes (T2D) in participants without diabetes in a community-based cohort (1998-2013) and (2) glycaemic deterioration in patients with T2D in a clinic-based cohort (1995-2014). We defined ID as HOMA2-%B below median and insulin IR as HOMA2-IR above median. RESULTS: During 10-year follow-up, 62 (17.9%) of 347 community-dwelling participants progressed to T2D. After 8.6 years, 291 (48.1%) of 609 patients with T2D had glycaemic deterioration. At baseline, progressors for T2D had higher HOMA2-IR, while in patients with T2D, progressors for glycaemic deterioration had higher HOMA2-IR and lower HOMA2-%B than non-progressors. The non-ID/IR group and the ID/IR group had an adjusted odds ratios of 2.47 (95% CI: 1.28, 4.94) and 5.36 (2.26, 12.79), respectively, for incident T2D versus the ID/non-IR group. In patients with T2D, 50% of the ID/IR group required insulin at 6.7 years versus around 11 years in the non-ID/IR or ID/non-IR, and more than 15 years in the non-ID/non-IR group. Compared with the latter group, the adjusted hazard ratios were 2.74 (1.80, 4.16) in the ID/non-IR, 2.73 (1.78, 4.19) in the non-ID/IR and 4.46 (2.87, 6.91) in the ID/IR group (p-interaction = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: In young Chinese adults, IR and ID contributed to progression to T2D and glycaemic deterioration.

Young age at diabetes diagnosis amplifies the effect of diabetes duration on risk of chronic kidney disease: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We postulated that the increased lifetime risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in young-onset diabetes is attributable to both long disease duration and more aggressive disease. We examined whether age at diabetes diagnosis modifies the effect of diabetes duration on risk of CKD. METHODS: We included 436,744 people with incident type 2 diabetes in the Hong Kong Diabetes Surveillance Database (HKDSD) and 16,979 people with prevalent type 2 diabetes in the Hong Kong Diabetes Register (HKDR). We used Poisson models to describe joint effects of age at diabetes diagnosis, diabetes duration and attained age on incidence of CKD in HKDSD. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine interaction effect of age at diabetes diagnosis and diabetes duration on risk of CKD with adjustment for confounders in HKDR. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 5.3 years, 134,043 cases of CKD were recorded in the HKDSD. The incidence rate ratio for CKD comparing people of the same attained age but diagnosed with diabetes at ages 5 years apart was higher for people with a younger age at diabetes diagnosis, but decreased with increasing age at diabetes diagnosis. During a median follow-up of 6.3 years, 6500 people developed CKD in the HKDR. The increased risk of CKD with longer diabetes duration decreased with older age at diabetes diagnosis. The adjusted HR for CKD associated with 5 year increase in diabetes duration was 1.37 (95% CI 1.13, 1.65) in people with diabetes diagnosed at 20-29 years and 1.01 (95% CI 0.87, 1.18) in those diagnosed at ≥70 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Young age at diabetes diagnosis amplified the effect of increasing diabetes duration on increased risk of CKD.

Health impacts of new-onset diabetes in women post-gestational diabetes mellitus: Insights from Hong Kong's territory-wide data.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To determine the population health burden attributable to the development of diabetes among women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of women with a history of GDM attending the Hong Kong Hospital Authority between 2000 and 2019. The time-varying population attributable fraction was calculated. RESULTS: A total of 76,181 women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus were included, 6,606 of them developed diabetes during a median follow-up of 8.6 years. The respective hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) among women with GDM who developed diabetes vs those with GDM only were 2.8 (2.2, 3.7) for cardiovascular disease (CVD), 4.8 (3.0, 7.7) for end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), 2.2 (1.9, 2.6) for infection-related hospitalization, and 1.8 (1.3, 2.4) for all-cause mortality. The development of diabetes was associated with 1.3 (0.8, 1.7), 0.6 (0.3, 0.8), 3.2 (2.4, 4.0), and 0.5 (0.2, 0.9) additional incident cases per 1,000 person-years, accounting for 24.0% (13.2%, 35.9%), 42.0% (22.5%, 58.8%), 10.8% (7.1%, 14.9%), and 6.0% (-3.1%, 16.1%) of absolute number of CVD, ESKD, infection-related hospitalization, and all-cause mortality over 20 years after GDM, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes is a significant contributor to the population health burden of some clinical outcomes in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus, but other risk factors need to be considered.

Comparison of ß-Cell Function and Insulin Sensitivity Between Normal-Weight and Obese Chinese With Young-Onset Type 2 Diabetes.

Normal-weight individuals with usual-onset type 2 diabetes have reduced ß-cell function and greater insulin sensitivity compared with their obese counterparts. The relative contribution of ß-cell dysfunction and insulin resistance to young-onset type 2 diabetes (YOD) among normal-weight individuals is not well established. In 44 individuals with YOD (24 with normal weight and 20 with obesity) and 24 healthy control individuals with normoglycemia (12 with normal weight and 12 with obesity), we conducted 2-h 12 mmol/L hyperglycemic clamps to measure acute (0-10 min) and steady-state (100-120 min) insulin and C-peptide responses, as well as insulin sensitivity index. Normal-weight individuals with YOD had lower acute insulin response, steady-state insulin and C-peptide responses, and a higher insulin sensitivity index compared with their obese counterparts with YOD. Compared with BMI-matched healthy control individuals, normal-weight individuals with YOD had lower acute and steady-state insulin and C-peptide responses but a similar insulin sensitivity index. The impairment of steady-state ß-cell response relative to healthy control individuals was more pronounced in normal-weight versus obese individuals with YOD. In conclusion, normal-weight Chinese with YOD exhibited worse ß-cell function but preserved insulin sensitivity relative to obese individuals with YOD and BMI-matched healthy individuals with normoglycemia. The selection of glucose-lowering therapy should account for pathophysiological differences underlying YOD between normal-weight and obese individuals.

One-hour post-load plasma glucose level predicts future type 2 diabetes in a community-based study of Hong Kong Chinese workforce.

BACKGROUND: We compared performance of high 1-hour PG level, impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in predicting type 2 diabetes in a longitudinal community-based cohort of Hong Kong Chinese. METHODS: Between 2001 and 2003, 472 adults aged 18-55 years without diabetes underwent 75-gram oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). Between 2012 and 2014, progression to diabetes was ascertained by reviewing medical records or repeating OGTT and HbA1c. We defined high 1-hour PG as PG ≥ 8.6 mmol/L at 1-hour. RESULTS: In this cohort, 23.5% had normal glucose tolerance and high 1-hour PG, 10.0% had isolated IGT, 4.2% had isolated IFG. Over 12-year follow-up, 9.3% developed type 2 diabetes. In logistic regression, high 1-hour PG was associated with progression to type 2 diabetes with adjusted odds ratio (95% CI) of 4.20 (1.60, 12.40), independent of IFG, IGT and other clinical variables. Areas under ROC (95% CI) for type 2 diabetes were similar between 1-hour (0.84 [0.78, 0.89], 2-hour (0.79 [0.72, 0.86]) and fasting PG (0.79 [0.71, 0.86]). CONCLUSION: High 1-hour PG identified young Chinese with 5-fold increased risk of type 2 diabetes independent of other intermediate hyperglycaemia status and clinical factors. 1-hour PG is similar to fasting and 2-hour PG in predicting type 2 diabetes.

Clinical outcomes following discontinuation of metformin in patients with type 2 diabetes and advanced chronic kidney disease in Hong Kong: a territory-wide, retrospective cohort and target trial emulation study.

Background: Current labelling advises discontinuation of metformin when estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 due to increased risk of lactic acidosis. However, in real-world practice, the risk-benefit ratios remain uncertain. We examined the risk associations of discontinued-metformin use with cardiorenal and clinical outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and advanced chronic kidney disease. Methods: In this territory-wide, retrospective cohort and target trial emulation study, we included Chinese patients attending the Hong Kong Hospital Authority (HA) and enrolled in the Risk-Assessment-and-Management-Programme-for-Diabetes-Mellitus (RAMP-DM) from 2002 to 2019. Patients were stratified by discontinuation of metformin within six months after reaching eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 from January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2018, and followed up until December 31 2019. We excluded patients who had observational time <6 months from eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2, and had their eGFR measured during a hospitalisation episode due to acute kidney injury, or missing diagnosis date of diabetes. We compared the risk associations of metformin discontinuation with clinical outcomes. The primary outcomes were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), cancer, and all-cause mortality. A Cox-model with time-dependent exposure and covariates was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of outcomes in a propensity-score overlap-weighted cohort. The risk of occurrence of lactic acidosis (serum lactate > 5.0 mmol/L with a concomitant blood pH < 7.35 or ICD-9 codes of 276.2) in discontinued-metformin versus continued-metformin users was assessed in a separate register-based cohort. Findings: A total of 33,586 metformin users with new-onset eGFR < 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 were included in the study, 7500 (22.3%) of whom discontinued metformin within 6 months whereas 26,086 (77.7%) continued use of metformin. During a median follow-up of 3.8 (IQR: 2.2-6.1) years, 16.4% (5505/33,586), 30.1% (10,113/33,586), and 7.1% (2171/30,682) had incident MACE, ESKD, and cancer respectively, and 44.4% (14,917/33,586) died. Compared to continued-metformin use, discontinuation was associated with higher risk of MACE (weighted and adjusted HR = 1.40, 95% CI: 1.29-1.52), ESKD (HR = 1.52, 1.42-1.62), and death (HR = 1.22, 1.18-1.27). No association was observed for cancer (HR = 0.93, 0.85-1.01). Discontinued-metformin users had higher change in HbA1c change at 6-month of follow-up versus continued-metformin users (weighted mean HbA1c level change: 0.5% [0.4-0.6%] versus 0.2% [0.1-0.2]). In the separate register-based cohort (n = 3235), null association was observed between metformin use and risk of lactic acidosis (weighted HR = 0.94 [0.53-1.64]). Interpretation: Our results suggest that discontinuation of metformin in patients with T2D and chronic kidney disease may be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular-renal events. Use of metformin below eGFR of 30 ml/min/1.73 m2 may be associated with cardiovascular, renal, and mortality benefits that need to be weighed against the risk of lactic acidosis, but further research is needed to validate these findings. Funding: CUHK Impact Research Fellowship Scheme.

Enhanced prediction of abnormal glucose tolerance using an extended non-invasive risk score incorporating routine renal biochemistry.

INTRODUCTION: Type 2 diabetes is preventable in subjects with impaired glucose tolerance based on 2-hour plasma glucose (2hPG) during 75 g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). We incorporated routine biochemistry to improve the performance of a non-invasive diabetes risk score to identify individuals with abnormal glucose tolerance (AGT) defined by 2hPG≥7.8 mmol/L during OGTT. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We used baseline data of 1938 individuals from the community-based "Better Health for Better Hong Kong - Hong Kong Family Diabetes Study (BHBHK-HKFDS) Cohort" recruited in 1998-2003. We incorporated routine biochemistry in a validated non-invasive diabetes risk score, and evaluated its performance using area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) with internal and external validation. RESULTS: The AUROC of the original non-invasive risk score to predict AGT was 0.698 (95% CI, 0.662 to 0.733). Following additional inclusion of fasting plasma glucose, serum potassium, creatinine, and urea, the AUROC increased to 0.778 (95% CI, 0.744 to 0.809, p<0.001). Net reclassification improved by 31.9% (p<0.001) overall, by 30.8% among people with AGT and 1.1% among people without AGT. The extended model showed good calibration (χ2=11.315, p=0.1845) and performance on external validation using an independent data set (AUROC=0.722, 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.764). CONCLUSIONS: The extended risk score incorporating clinical and routine biochemistry can be integrated into an electronic health records system to select high-risk subjects for evaluation of AGT using OGTT for prevention of diabetes.

Precision Medicine to Redefine Insulin Secretion and Monogenic Diabetes-Randomized Controlled Trial (PRISM-RCT) in Chinese patients with young-onset diabetes: design, methods and baseline characteristics.

INTRODUCTION: We designed and implemented a patient-centered, data-driven, holistic care model with evaluation of its impacts on clinical outcomes in patients with young-onset type 2 diabetes (T2D) for which there is a lack of evidence-based practice guidelines. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: In this 3-year Precision Medicine to Redefine Insulin Secretion and Monogenic Diabetes-Randomized Controlled Trial, we evaluate the effects of a multicomponent care model integrating use of information and communication technology (Joint Asia Diabetes Evaluation (JADE) platform), biogenetic markers and patient-reported outcome measures in patients with T2D diagnosed at ≤40 years of age and aged ≤50 years. The JADE-PRISM group received 1 year of specialist-led team-based management using treatment algorithms guided by biogenetic markers (genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphism arrays, exome-sequencing of 34 monogenic diabetes genes, C-peptide, autoantibodies) to achieve multiple treatment goals (glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) <6.2%, blood pressure <120/75 mm Hg, low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol <1.2 mmol/L, waist circumference <80 cm (women) or <85 cm (men)) in a diabetes center setting versus usual care (JADE-only). The primary outcome is incidence of all diabetes-related complications. RESULTS: In 2020-2021, 884 patients (56.6% men, median (IQR) diabetes duration: 7 (3-12) years, current/ex-smokers: 32.5%, body mass index: 28.40±5.77 kg/m2, HbA1c: 7.52%±1.66%, insulin-treated: 27.7%) were assigned to JADE-only (n=443) or JADE-PRISM group (n=441). The profiles of the whole group included positive family history (74.7%), general obesity (51.4%), central obesity (79.2%), hypertension (66.7%), dyslipidemia (76.4%), albuminuria (35.4%), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 (4.0%), retinopathy (13.8%), atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (5.2%), cancer (3.1%), emotional distress (26%-38%) and suboptimal adherence (54%) with 5-item EuroQol for Quality of Life index of 0.88 (0.87-0.96). Overall, 13.7% attained ≥3 metabolic targets defined in secondary outcomes. In the JADE-PRISM group, 4.5% had pathogenic/likely pathogenic variants of monogenic diabetes genes; 5% had autoantibodies and 8.4% had fasting C-peptide <0.2 nmol/L. Other significant events included low/large birth weight (33.4%), childhood obesity (50.7%), mental illness (10.3%) and previous suicide attempts (3.6%). Among the women, 17.3% had polycystic ovary syndrome, 44.8% required insulin treatment during pregnancy and 17.3% experienced adverse pregnancy outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Young-onset diabetes is characterized by complex etiologies with comorbidities including mental illness and lifecourse events. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04049149.

Clinical outcomes following discontinuation of renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors in patients with type 2 diabetes and advanced chronic kidney disease: A prospective cohort study.

Background: Renin-angiotensin-system inhibitors (RASi), that include angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEis) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) reduce proteinuria, delay chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression, protect against cardiovascular events and heart failure hospitalizations. We examined the associations of discontinuation of ACEi/ARBs with risk of clinical outcomes in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and advanced-CKD (estimated-glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] <30 ml/min/1.73 m2). Methods: We conducted a prospective, population-based cohort study including 10,400 patients with T2D in Hong Kong stratified by continuation of ACEi/ARBs within 6 months after reaching eGFR <30 ml/min/1.73 m2 from January 01, 2002 to December 31, 2018 and observed until December 31, 2019. The primary outcomes were death, major-adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), heart failure, end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), and all-cause mortality. Cox-model with time-dependent exposure and covariates was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of outcomes in a propensity-score overlap-weighted cohort. The risk of occurrence of hyperkalemia (plasma potassium >5.5 mmol/L) in discontinued-ACEi/ARBs versus continued-ACEi/ARBs users was assessed in a register-based cohort. Findings: In the population-based cohort of 10,400 ACEi/ARBs users with new-onset eGFR<30 ml/min/1.73 m2, 1766 (17.0%) discontinued ACEi/ARBs and 8634 (83.0%) persisted with treatment. During a median follow-up of 3.6 (interquartile range, IQR: 2.11-5.8) years (41,623 person-years), 13.5%, 12.9%, and 27.6% had incident MACE, heart failure and ESKD respectively, and 35.8% died. Discontinued-ACEi/ARBs use was associated with higher risk of MACE (HR = 1.27, 95% CI: 1.08-1.49), heart failure (HR = 1.85, 95% CI: 1.53-2.25) and ESKD (HR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.17-1.43), and neutral risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 0.93, 95% CI: 0.86-1.01) compared to counterparts with continued use. In the register-based cohort (583 discontinued-ACEi/ARBs users and 3817 continued-ACEi/ARBs users), discontinued-ACEi/ARBs had neutral risk of hyperkalemia (HR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.84-1.08). Interpretation: Discontinuation of ACEi/ARBs was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular-renal events supporting their continued use in patients with T2D and advanced-CKD. Funding: CUHK Impact Research Fellowship Scheme.