Prediction of postoperative atrial fibrillation with postoperative epicardial electrograms.

Objectives. New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a common complication after cardiac surgery. The arrhythmia often entails a longer hospital stay, greater risk of other complications, and higher mortality both short- and long-term. An investigation of the use of early atrial electrograms in predicting POAF in cardiac surgery was performed. Design. In this prospective observational study, a total of 99 consecutive adult patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, valve surgery or both were included. On the first postoperative morning, standard 12-lead electrograms (ECG), unipolar atrial electrograms (aEG), and vital values were recorded. The outcome was new-onset POAF within one month postoperatively. Results. Three multivariable prediction models for POAF were formed using measurements derived from the ECG, aEG, and patient characteristics. Age, body mass index, and two unipolar electrogram measurements quantifying local activation time and fractionation were strongly associated with the outcome POAF. The performance of the POAF prediction models was assessed through receiver operating curve characteristics with cross-validation, and discrimination using the leave-one-out-method to internally validate the models. The cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was improved in a prediction model using atrial-derived electrogram variables (AUC 0.796, 95% CI 0.698-0.894), compared with previous ECG and clinical models (AUC 0.716, 95% CI 0.606-0.826 and AUC 0.718, 95% CI 0.613-0.822, respectively). Conclusions. This study found that easily obtainable measurements from atrial electrograms may be helpful in identifying patients at risk of POAF in cardiac surgery.

Risk and Subtypes of Stroke Following New-Onset Postoperative Atrial Fibrillation in Coronary Bypass Surgery: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Background New-onset postoperative atrial fibrillation (POAF) develops in approximately one-third of patients undergoing cardiac surgery and is associated with a higher incidence of ischemic stroke and increased mortality. However, it remains unknown to what extent ischemic stroke events in patients with POAF are cardioembolic and whether anticoagulant therapy is indicated. We investigated the long-term risk and pathogenesis of postoperative stroke in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting experiencing POAF. Methods and Results This was a register-based cohort study. Data from the WDHR (Western Denmark Heart Registry) were linked with the DNPR (Danish National Patient Register), the Danish National Prescription Register, and the Cause of Death Register. All stroke diagnoses were verified, and ischemic stroke cases were subclassified according to pathogenesis. Furthermore, investigations of all-cause mortality and the use of anticoagulation medicine for the individual patient were performed. A total of 7813 patients without a preoperative history of atrial fibrillation underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting between January 1, 2010, and December 31, 2018, in Western Denmark. POAF was registered in 2049 (26.2%) patients, and a postoperative ischemic stroke was registered in 195 (2.5%) of the patients. After adjustment, there was no difference in the risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio [HR], 1.08 [95% CI, 0.74-1.56]) or all-cause mortality (HR, 1.09 [95% CI, 0.98-1.23]) between patients who developed POAF and non-POAF patients. Although not statistically significant, patients with POAF had a higher incidence rate (IR; per 1000 patient-years) of cardioembolic stroke (IR, 1 [95% CI, 0.6-1.6] versus IR, 0.5 [95% CI, 0.3-0.8]), whereas non-POAF patients had a higher incidence rate of large-artery occlusion stroke (IR, 1.1 [95% CI, 0.8-1.5] versus IR, 0.7 [95% CI, 0.4-1.4]). Early initiation of anticoagulation medicine was not associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. However, patients with POAF were more likely to die of cardiovascular causes than non-POAF patients (P<0.001). Conclusions We found no difference in the adjusted risk of postoperative stroke or all-cause mortality in POAF versus non-POAF patients. Patients with POAF after coronary artery bypass grafting presented with a higher, although not significant, proportion of ischemic strokes of the cardioembolic type.