Microbial feedbacks optimize ocean iron availability.

Iron is the limiting factor for biological production over a large fraction of the surface ocean because free iron is rapidly scavenged or precipitated under aerobic conditions. Standing stocks of dissolved iron are maintained by association with organic molecules (ligands) produced by biological processes. We hypothesize a positive feedback between iron cycling, microbial activity, and ligand abundance: External iron input fuels microbial production, creating organic ligands that support more iron in seawater, leading to further macronutrient consumption until other microbial requirements such as macronutrients or light become limiting, and additional iron no longer increases productivity. This feedback emerges in numerical simulations of the coupled marine cycles of macronutrients and iron that resolve the dynamic microbial production and loss of iron-chelating ligands. The model solutions resemble modern nutrient distributions only over a finite range of prescribed ligand source/sink ratios where the model ocean is driven to global-scale colimitation by micronutrients and macronutrients and global production is maximized. We hypothesize that a global-scale selection for microbial ligand cycling may have occurred to maintain "just enough" iron in the ocean.

Moving ecological and biogeochemical transitions across the North Pacific.

In the North Pacific Ocean, nutrient rich surface waters flow south from the subpolar gyre through a transitional region and into the subtropics. Along the way, nutrients are used, recycled, and exported, leading to lower biomass and a commensurate change in ecosystem structure moving southward. We focus on the region between the two gyres (the Transition Zone) using a coupled biophysical ocean model, remote sensing, floats, and cruise data to explore the nature of the physical, biogeochemical, and ecological fields in this region. Nonlinear interactions between biological processes and the meridional gradient in nutrient supply lead to sharp shifts across this zone. These transitions between a southern region with more uniform biological and biogeochemical properties and steep meridional gradients to the north are diagnosed from extrema in the first derivative of the properties with latitude. Some transitions like that for chlorophyll a (the transition zone chlorophyll front [TZCF]) experience large seasonal excursions while the location of the transitions in other properties moves very little. The seasonal shifts are not caused by changes in the horizontal flow field, but rather by the interaction of seasonal, depth related, forcing with the mean latitudinal gradients. Focusing on the TZCF as a case study, we express its phase velocity in terms of vertical nutrient flux and internal ecosystem processes, demonstrating their nearly equal influence on its motion. This framework of propagating biogeochemical transitions can be systematically expanded to better understand the processes that structure ecosystems and biogeochemistry in the North Pacific and beyond.

Routes of the Upper Branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation according to an Ocean State Estimate.

The origins of the upper branch of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are traced with backward-in-time Lagrangian trajectories, quantifying the partition of volume transport between different routes of entry from the Indo-Pacific into the Atlantic. Particles are advected by the velocity field from a recent release of "Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean" (ECCOv4). This global time-variable velocity field is a dynamically consistent interpolation of over 1 billion oceanographic observations collected between 1992 and 2015. Of the 13.6 Sverdrups (1 Sv = 106 m3/s) flowing northward across 6°S, 15% enters the Atlantic from Drake Passage, 35% enters from the straits between Asia and Australia (Indonesian Throughflow), and 49% comes from the region south of Australia (Tasman Leakage). Because of blending in the Agulhas region, water mass properties in the South Atlantic are not a good indicator of origin.

Ocean mover's distance: using optimal transport for analysing oceanographic data.

Remote sensing observations from satellites and global biogeochemical models have combined to revolutionize the study of ocean biogeochemical cycling, but comparing the two data streams to each other and across time remains challenging due to the strong spatial-temporal structuring of the ocean. Here, we show that the Wasserstein distance provides a powerful metric for harnessing these structured datasets for better marine ecosystem and climate predictions. The Wasserstein distance complements commonly used point-wise difference methods such as the root-mean-squared error, by quantifying differences in terms of spatial displacement in addition to magnitude. As a test case, we consider chlorophyll (a key indicator of phytoplankton biomass) in the northeast Pacific Ocean, obtained from model simulations, in situ measurements, and satellite observations. We focus on two main applications: (i) comparing model predictions with satellite observations, and (ii) temporal evolution of chlorophyll both seasonally and over longer time frames. The Wasserstein distance successfully isolates temporal and depth variability and quantifies shifts in biogeochemical province boundaries. It also exposes relevant temporal trends in satellite chlorophyll consistent with climate change predictions. Our study shows that optimal transport vectors underlying the Wasserstein distance provide a novel visualization tool for testing models and better understanding temporal dynamics in the ocean.

Coupling of the mid-depth and abyssal components of the global overturning circulation according to a state estimate.

Using velocities from a state estimate, Lagrangian analysis maps the global routes of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) exiting the Atlantic and reentering the upper branch of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Virtual particle trajectories followed for 8100 years highlight an upper route (32%) and a lower route (68%). The latter samples σ2 > 37.07 and is further divided into subpolar (20%) and abyssal cells (48%). Particles in the abyssal cell detour into the abyssal North Pacific before upwelling in the Southern Ocean. NADW preferentially upwells north of 33°S (67%). Total diapycnal transformations are largest in the lower route but of comparable magnitudes in the upper route, challenging its previous characterization as "adiabatic." Typical transit times are 300, 700, and 3600 years for the upper route, subpolar, and abyssal cells, respectively. The AMOC imports salinity into the Atlantic, indicating its potential instability to high-latitude freshwater perturbations.

Elucidating ecological complexity: Unsupervised learning determines global marine eco-provinces.

An unsupervised learning method is presented for determining global marine ecological provinces (eco-provinces) from plankton community structure and nutrient flux data. The systematic aggregated eco-province (SAGE) method identifies eco-provinces within a highly nonlinear ecosystem model. To accommodate the non-Gaussian covariance of the data, SAGE uses t-stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) to reduce dimensionality. Over a hundred eco-provinces are identified with the density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSCAN) algorithm. Using a connectivity graph with ecological dissimilarity as the distance metric, robust aggregated eco-provinces (AEPs) are objectively defined by nesting the eco-provinces. Using the AEPs, the control of nutrient supply rates on community structure is explored. Eco-provinces and AEPs are unique and aid model interpretation. They could facilitate model intercomparison and potentially improve understanding and monitoring of marine ecosystems.