Palynological composition of a Lower Cretaceous South American tropical sequence: climatic implications and diversity comparisons with other latitudes.

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Reconstruction of floristic patterns during the early diversification of angiosperms is impeded by the scarce fossil record, especially in tropical latitudes. Here we collected quantitative palynological data from a stratigraphic sequence in tropical South America to provide floristic and climatic insights into such tropical environments during the Early Cretaceous. METHODS: We reconstructed the floristic composition of an Aptian-Albian tropical sequence from central Colombia using quantitative palynology (rarefied species richness and abundance) and used it to infer its predominant climatic conditions. Additionally, we compared our results with available quantitative data from three other sequences encompassing 70 floristic assemblages to determine latitudinal diversity patterns. KEY RESULTS: Abundance of humidity indicators was higher than that of aridity indicators (61% vs. 10%). Additionally, we found an angiosperm latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) for the Aptian, but not for the Albian, and an inverted LDG of the overall diversity for the Albian. Angiosperm species turnover during the Albian, however, was higher in humid tropics. CONCLUSIONS: There were humid climates in northwestern South America during the Aptian-Albian interval contrary to the widespread aridity expected for the tropical belt. The Albian inverted overall LDG is produced by a faster increase in per-sample angiosperm and pteridophyte diversity in temperate latitudes. However, humid tropical sequences had higher rates of floristic turnover suggesting a higher degree of morphological variation than in temperate regions.

Assessing the potential of translocating vulnerable forest birds by searching for novel and enduring climatic ranges.

Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics 'akeke'e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and 'akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua'i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of 'akeke'e and 'akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua'i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.

Modeling the Complex Impacts of Timber Harvests to Find Optimal Management Regimes for Amazon Tidal Floodplain Forests.

At the Amazon estuary, the oldest logging frontier in the Amazon, no studies have comprehensively explored the potential long-term population and yield consequences of multiple timber harvests over time. Matrix population modeling is one way to simulate long-term impacts of tree harvests, but this approach has often ignored common impacts of tree harvests including incidental damage, changes in post-harvest demography, shifts in the distribution of merchantable trees, and shifts in stand composition. We designed a matrix-based forest management model that incorporates these harvest-related impacts so resulting simulations reflect forest stand dynamics under repeated timber harvests as well as the realities of local smallholder timber management systems. Using a wide range of values for management criteria (e.g., length of cutting cycle, minimum cut diameter), we projected the long-term population dynamics and yields of hundreds of timber management regimes in the Amazon estuary, where small-scale, unmechanized logging is an important economic activity. These results were then compared to find optimal stand-level and species-specific sustainable timber management (STM) regimes using a set of timber yield and population growth indicators. Prospects for STM in Amazonian tidal floodplain forests are better than for many other tropical forests. However, generally high stock recovery rates between harvests are due to the comparatively high projected mean annualized yields from fast-growing species that effectively counterbalance the projected yield declines from other species. For Amazonian tidal floodplain forests, national management guidelines provide neither the highest yields nor the highest sustained population growth for species under management. Our research shows that management guidelines specific to a region's ecological settings can be further refined to consider differences in species demographic responses to repeated harvests. In principle, such fine-tuned management guidelines could make management more attractive, thus bridging the currently prevalent gap between tropical timber management practice and regulation.

Large-Scale Range Collapse of Hawaiian Forest Birds under Climate Change and the Need for 21st Century Conservation Options [corrected].

Hawaiian forest birds serve as an ideal group to explore the extent of climate change impacts on at-risk species. Avian malaria constrains many remaining Hawaiian forest bird species to high elevations where temperatures are too cool for malaria's life cycle and its principal mosquito vector. The impact of climate change on Hawaiian forest birds has been a recent focus of Hawaiian conservation biology, and has centered on the links between climate and avian malaria. To elucidate the differential impacts of projected climate shifts on species with known varying niches, disease resistance and tolerance, we use a comprehensive database of species sightings, regional climate projections and ensemble distribution models to project distribution shifts for all Hawaiian forest bird species. We illustrate that, under a likely scenario of continued disease-driven distribution limitation, all 10 species with highly reliable models (mostly narrow-ranged, single-island endemics) are expected to lose >50% of their range by 2100. Of those, three are expected to lose all range and three others are expected to lose >90% of their range. Projected range loss was smaller for several of the more widespread species; however improved data and models are necessary to refine future projections. Like other at-risk species, Hawaiian forest birds have specific habitat requirements that limit the possibility of range expansion for most species, as projected expansion is frequently in areas where forest habitat is presently not available (such as recent lava flows). Given the large projected range losses for all species, protecting high elevation forest alone is not an adequate long-term strategy for many species under climate change. We describe the types of additional conservation actions practitioners will likely need to consider, while providing results to help with such considerations.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Correlation but no causation between leaf nitrogen and maximum assimilation: the role of drought and reproduction in gas exchange in an understory tropical plant Miconia ciliata (Melastomataceae).

Alternative hypotheses were tested to explain a previously reported anomaly in the response of leaf photosynthetic capacity at light saturation (A(max)) in Miconia ciliata to dry-season irrigation. The anomaly is characterized by an abrupt increase in leaf A(max) for nonirrigated plants at the onset of the rainy season to values that significantly exceeded corresponding measurements for plants that were irrigated during the previous dry season. Hypothesis 1 posits that a pulse in leaf nitrogen increases CO(2) assimilation in nonirrigated plants at the onset of the wet season and is dampened for irrigated plants; this hypothesis was rejected because, although a wet-season nitrogen pulse did occur, it was identical for both irrigated and nonirrigated plants and was preceded by the increase in assimilation by nonirrigated plants. Hypothesis 2 posits that a reproduction-related, compensatory photosynthetic response occurs in nonirrigated plants following the onset of the wet season and is dampened in irrigated plants; consistent with hypothesis 2, high maximum assimilation rates for control plants in the wet season were significantly correlated with fruiting and flowering, whereas irrigation caused flowering and fruiting in the dry season, spreading M. ciliata reproductive activity in irrigated plants across the entire year.

Drought constraints on leaf gas exchange by Miconia ciliata (Melastomataceae) in the understory of an eastern Amazonian regrowth forest stand.

Analyses of the effects of drought stress on Amazonian regrowth stands are lacking. We measured leaf gas exchange and leaf water potential of Miconia ciliata (Melastomataceae) in a dry-season irrigation experiment in 14-yr-old regrowth. In the dry season, irrigated plants maintained significantly higher leaf water potentials, photosynthetic capacity at light saturation (A(max)), stomatal conductance (g(s)), internal CO(2) concentration (C(i)), and lower A(max)/g(s) than control plants. The degree of dry-season down-regulation of control plant A(max), along with its fast recovery following rain, reveals the importance of occasional dry-season rains to the carbon budget of M. ciliata. During the wet season, we observed higher A(max) for control plants than for plants that had been irrigated during the dry season. We hypothesize that reduced drought constraints on photosynthesis of irrigated plants advanced the flowering and fruiting phenology of irrigated plants into the dry season. Flowers and fruits of control plants developed later, during the wet season, potentially stimulating a compensatory reproductive photosynthesis response in nearby leaves. The relative drought intolerance of M. ciliata may be a deciding factor in its ability to survive through the dynamic successional development of the regrowth stand studied.