Protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, but management helps.

International policy is focused on increasing the proportion of the Earth's surface that is protected for nature1,2. Although studies show that protected areas prevent habitat loss3-6, there is a lack of evidence for their effect on species' populations: existing studies are at local scale or use simple designs that lack appropriate controls7-13. Here we explore how 1,506 protected areas have affected the trajectories of 27,055 waterbird populations across the globe using a robust before-after control-intervention study design, which compares protected and unprotected populations in the years before and after protection. We show that the simpler study designs typically used to assess protected area effectiveness (before-after or control-intervention) incorrectly estimate effects for 37-50% of populations-for instance misclassifying positively impacted populations as negatively impacted, and vice versa. Using our robust study design, we find that protected areas have a mixed impact on waterbirds, with a strong signal that areas managed for waterbirds or their habitat are more likely to benefit populations, and a weak signal that larger areas are more beneficial than smaller ones. Calls to conserve 30% of the Earth's surface by 2030 are gathering pace14, but we show that protection alone does not guarantee good biodiversity outcomes. As countries gather to agree the new Global Biodiversity Framework, targets must focus on creating and supporting well-managed protected and conserved areas that measurably benefit populations.

Predicting resilience of migratory birds to environmental change.

The pace and scale of environmental change represent major challenges to many organisms. Animals that move long distances, such as migratory birds, are especially vulnerable to change since they need chains of intact habitat along their migratory routes. Estimating the resilience of such species to environmental changes assists in targeting conservation efforts. We developed a migration modeling framework to predict past (1960s), present (2010s), and future (2060s) optimal migration strategies across five shorebird species (Scolopacidae) within the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, which has seen major habitat deterioration and loss over the last century, and compared these predictions to empirical tracks from the present. Our model captured the migration strategies of the five species and identified the changes in migrations needed to respond to habitat deterioration and climate change. Notably, the larger species, with single or few major stopover sites, need to establish new migration routes and strategies, while smaller species can buffer habitat loss by redistributing their stopover areas to novel or less-used sites. Comparing model predictions with empirical tracks also indicates that larger species with the stronger need for adaptations continue to migrate closer to the optimal routes of the past, before habitat deterioration accelerated. Our study not only quantifies the vulnerability of species in the face of global change but also explicitly reveals the extent of adaptations required to sustain their migrations. This modeling framework provides a tool for conservation planning that can accommodate the future needs of migratory species.

Global conservation of species' niches.

Environmental change is rapidly accelerating, and many species will need to adapt to survive1. Ensuring that protected areas cover populations across a broad range of environmental conditions could safeguard the processes that lead to such adaptations1-3. However, international conservation policies have largely neglected these considerations when setting targets for the expansion of protected areas4. Here we show that-of 19,937 vertebrate species globally5-8-the representation of environmental conditions across their habitats in protected areas (hereafter, niche representation) is inadequate for 4,836 (93.1%) amphibian, 8,653 (89.5%) bird and 4,608 (90.9%) terrestrial mammal species. Expanding existing protected areas to cover these gaps would encompass 33.8% of the total land surface-exceeding the current target of 17% that has been adopted by governments. Priority locations for expanding the system of protected areas to improve niche representation occur in global biodiversity hotspots9, including Colombia, Papua New Guinea, South Africa and southwest China, as well as across most of the major land masses of the Earth. Conversely, we also show that planning for the expansion of protected areas without explicitly considering environmental conditions would marginally reduce the land area required to 30.7%, but that this would lead to inadequate niche representation for 7,798 (39.1%) species. As the governments of the world prepare to renegotiate global conservation targets, policymakers have the opportunity to help to maintain the adaptive potential of species by considering niche representation within protected areas1,2.

People's desire to be in nature and how they experience it are partially heritable.

Nature experiences have been linked to mental and physical health. Despite the importance of understanding what determines individual variation in nature experience, the role of genes has been overlooked. Here, using a twin design (TwinsUK, number of individuals = 2,306), we investigate the genetic and environmental contributions to a person's nature orientation, opportunity (living in less urbanized areas), and different dimensions of nature experience (frequency and duration of public nature space visits and frequency and duration of garden visits). We estimate moderate heritability of nature orientation (46%) and nature experiences (48% for frequency of public nature space visits, 34% for frequency of garden visits, and 38% for duration of garden visits) and show their genetic components partially overlap. We also find that the environmental influences on nature experiences are moderated by the level of urbanization of the home district. Our study demonstrates genetic contributions to individuals' nature experiences, opening a new dimension for the study of human-nature interactions.

Threat management priorities for conserving Antarctic biodiversity.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity faces multiple threats, from invasive species to climate change. Yet no large-scale assessments of threat management strategies exist. Applying a structured participatory approach, we demonstrate that existing conservation efforts are insufficient in a changing world, estimating that 65% (at best 37%, at worst 97%) of native terrestrial taxa and land-associated seabirds are likely to decline by 2100 under current trajectories. Emperor penguins are identified as the most vulnerable taxon, followed by other seabirds and dry soil nematodes. We find that implementing 10 key threat management strategies in parallel, at an estimated present-day equivalent annual cost of US$23 million, could benefit up to 84% of Antarctic taxa. Climate change is identified as the most pervasive threat to Antarctic biodiversity and influencing global policy to effectively limit climate change is the most beneficial conservation strategy. However, minimising impacts of human activities and improved planning and management of new infrastructure projects are cost-effective and will help to minimise regional threats. Simultaneous global and regional efforts are critical to secure Antarctic biodiversity for future generations.

The benefits of contributing to the citizen science platform iNaturalist as an identifier.

As the number of observations submitted to the citizen science platform iNaturalist continues to grow, it is increasingly important that these observations can be identified to the finest taxonomic level, maximizing their value for biodiversity research. Here, we explore the benefits of acting as an identifier on iNaturalist.

The global distribution and trajectory of tidal flats.

Increasing human populations around the global coastline have caused extensive loss, degradation and fragmentation of coastal ecosystems, threatening the delivery of important ecosystem services1. As a result, alarming losses of mangrove, coral reef, seagrass, kelp forest and coastal marsh ecosystems have occurred1-6. However, owing to the difficulty of mapping intertidal areas globally, the distribution and status of tidal flats-one of the most extensive coastal ecosystems-remain unknown7. Here we present an analysis of over 700,000 satellite images that maps the global extent of and change in tidal flats over the course of 33 years (1984-2016). We find that tidal flats, defined as sand, rock or mud flats that undergo regular tidal inundation7, occupy at least 127,921 km2 (124,286-131,821 km2, 95% confidence interval). About 70% of the global extent of tidal flats is found in three continents (Asia (44% of total), North America (15.5% of total) and South America (11% of total)), with 49.2% being concentrated in just eight countries (Indonesia, China, Australia, the United States, Canada, India, Brazil and Myanmar). For regions with sufficient data to develop a consistent multi-decadal time series-which included East Asia, the Middle East and North America-we estimate that 16.02% (15.62-16.47%, 95% confidence interval) of tidal flats were lost between 1984 and 2016. Extensive degradation from coastal development1, reduced sediment delivery from major rivers8,9, sinking of riverine deltas8,10, increased coastal erosion and sea-level rise11 signal a continuing negative trajectory for tidal flat ecosystems around the world. Our high-spatial-resolution dataset delivers global maps of tidal flats, which substantially advances our understanding of the distribution, trajectory and status of these poorly known coastal ecosystems.

Patterns of recovery in extant and extirpated seabirds after the world's largest multipredator eradication.

Eradicating invasive predators from islands can result in substantial recovery of seabirds, but the mechanisms that drive population changes remain poorly understood. Meta-analyses have recently revealed that immigration is surprisingly important to the recovery of philopatric seabirds, but it is not known whether dispersal and philopatry interact predictably to determine rates of population growth and changes of distribution. We used whole-island surveys and long-term monitoring plots to study the abundance, distribution, and trends of 4 burrowing seabird species on Macquarie Island, Australia, to examine the legacy impacts of invasive species and ongoing responses to the world's largest eradication of multiple species of vertebrates. Wekas (Gallirallus australis) were eradicated in 1988; cats (Felis catus) in 2001; and rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), black rats (Rattus rattus), and mice (Mus mus) in 2011-2014. We compared surveys from 1976-1979 and 2017-2018 and monitoring from the 1990s and 2000s onward. Antarctic prions (Pachyptila desolata) and white-headed petrels (Pterodroma lessonii) increased ∼1% per year. Blue petrels (Halobaena caerulea) and gray petrels (Procellaria cinerea) recolonized following extirpation from the main island in the 1900s but remained spatially and numerically rare in 2018. However, they increased rapidly at 14% and 10% per year, respectively, since cat eradication in 2001. Blue and gray petrel recolonization occurred on steep, dry, west-facing slopes close to ridgelines at low elevation (i.e., high-quality petrel habitat). They overlapped <5% with the distribution of Antarctic prion and white-headed petrels which occurred in suboptimal shallow, wet, east-facing slopes at high elevation. We inferred that the speed of population growth of recolonizing species was related to their numerically smaller starting size compared with the established species and was driven by immigration and selection of ideal habitat.

Patrones de recuperación en aves marinas existentes y extirpadas después de la mayor erradicación mundial de multidepredadores Resumen La erradicación de depredadores invasores en las islas puede derivar en la recuperación sustancial de aves marinas, aunque entendemos muy poco los mecanismos que causan los cambios poblacionales. Los metaanálisis recientes han revelado que la inmigración es de gran importancia para la recuperación de aves marinas filopátricas, aunque no sabemos si la dispersión y la filopatría interactúan de forma predecible para poder determinar las tasas de crecimiento poblacional y los cambios en la distribución. Aplicamos censos de isla completa y parcelas de monitoreo a largo plazo para estudiar la abundancia, distribución y tendencias de cuatro especies de aves marinas cavadoras en la Isla Macquarie, Australia, para analizar los impactos heredados de las especies invasoras y la respuesta continua a la mayor erradicación mundial de varias especies de vertebrados. El rascón weka (Gallirallus australis) se erradicó en 1988; los gatos (Felis catus) en 2001; y los conejos (Oryctolagus cuniculus), ratas (Rattus rattus) y ratones (Mus mus) entre 2011 y 2014. Comparamos los censos de 1976­1979 y 2017­2018 y el monitoreo realizado en los 90s y del año 2000 en adelante. El pato petrel antártico (Pachyptila desolata) y el petrel cabeciblanco (Pterodroma lessonii) incrementaron ∼1% por año. El petrel azulado (Halobaena caerulea) y la pardela gris (Procellaria cinerea) recolonizaron la isla después de su extirpación en la década de 1900, pero todavía eran especies raras espacial y numéricamente en 2018. Sin embargo, esta especie incrementó rápidamente en un 14% y 10% por año respectivamente desde que se erradicaron los gatos en 2001. La recolonización ocurrió desde las laderas empinadas, secas y con orientación al oeste en los sistemas montañosos de baja elevación (es decir, hábitats de gran calidad para los petreles). La distribución del petrel azulado y la pardela gris ocurrió en laderas someras subóptimas y húmedas con orientación al este a altas elevaciones. Esta distribución se traslapó menos del 5% con la del pato petrel antártico y la del petrel cabeciblanco. Inferimos que la velocidad del crecimiento poblacional de las especies que recolonizaron estuvo relacionada con el menor tamaño inicial en comparación con las especies establecidas y fue causada por la inmigración y la selección del hábitat ideal.

Using social media records to inform conservation planning.

Citizen science plays a crucial role in helping monitor biodiversity and inform conservation. With the widespread use of smartphones, many people share biodiversity information on social media, but this information is still not widely used in conservation. Focusing on Bangladesh, a tropical megadiverse and mega-populated country, we examined the importance of social media records in conservation decision-making. We collated species distribution records for birds and butterflies from Facebook and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), grouped them into GBIF-only and combined GBIF and Facebook data, and investigated the differences in identifying critical conservation areas. Adding Facebook data to GBIF data improved the accuracy of systematic conservation planning assessments by identifying additional important conservation areas in the northwest, southeast, and central parts of Bangladesh, extending priority conservation areas by 4,000-10,000 km2 . Community efforts are needed to drive the implementation of the ambitious Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets, especially in megadiverse tropical countries with a lack of reliable and up-to-date species distribution data. We highlight that conservation planning can be enhanced by including available data gathered from social media platforms.

Registros de las redes sociales para guiar la planeación de la conservación Resumen La ciencia ciudadana es importante para monitorear la biodiversidad e informar la conservación. Con el creciente uso de los teléfonos inteligentes, muchas personas comparten información de la biodiversidad en redes sociales, pero todavía no se usa ampliamente en la conservación. Analizamos la importancia de los registros de las redes sociales para las decisiones de conservación enfocados en Bangladesh, un país tropical megadiverso y mega poblado. Cotejamos los registros de distribución de especies de aves y mariposas en Facebook y Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), las agrupamos en datos sólo de GBIF o datos combinados de Facebook y GBIF e investigamos las diferencias en la identificación de las áreas de conservación críticas. La combinación de los datos de Facebook con los de GBIF mejoró la precisión de las evaluaciones de la planeación de la conservación sistemática al identificar otras áreas importantes de conservación en el noroeste, sureste y centro de Bangladesh, extendiendo así las áreas prioritarias de conservación en unos 4,000-10,000 km2 . Se requieren esfuerzos comunitarios para impulsar la implementación de los objetivos ambiciosos del Marco Global de Biodiversidad Kunming-Montreal, especialmente en países tropicales que carecen de datos confiables y actuales sobre la distribución de las especies. Destacamos que la planeación de la conservación puede mejorarse si se incluye información tomada de las redes sociales.

Increasing biodiversity knowledge through social media: A case study from tropical Bangladesh.

Citizen science programs are becoming increasingly popular among naturalists but remain heavily biased taxonomically and geographically. However, with the explosive popularity of social media and the near-ubiquitous availability of smartphones, many post wildlife photographs on social media. Here, we illustrate the potential of harvesting these data to enhance our biodiversity understanding using Bangladesh, a tropical biodiverse country, as a case study. We compared biodiversity records extracted from Facebook with those from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), collating geospatial records for 1013 unique species, including 970 species from Facebook and 712 species from GBIF. Although most observation records were biased toward major cities, the Facebook records were more evenly spatially distributed. About 86% of the Threatened species records were from Facebook, whereas the GBIF records were almost entirely Of Least Concern species. To reduce the global biodiversity data shortfall, a key research priority now is the development of mechanisms for extracting and interpreting social media biodiversity data.

Exploring the risks and benefits of flexibility in biodiversity offset location in a case study of migratory shorebirds.

Biodiversity offsets aim to counterbalance the residual impacts of development on species and ecosystems. Guidance documents explicitly recommend that biodiversity offset actions be located close to the location of impact because of higher potential for similar ecological conditions, but allowing greater spatial flexibility has been proposed. We examined the circumstances under which offsets distant from the impact location could be more likely to achieve no net loss or provide better ecological outcomes than offsets close to the impact area. We applied a graphical model for migratory shorebirds in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway as a case study to explore the problems that arise when incorporating spatial flexibility into offset planning. Spatially flexible offsets may alleviate impacts more effectively than local offsets; however, the risks involved can be substantial. For our case study, there were inadequate data to make robust conclusions about the effectiveness and equivalence of distant habitat-based offsets for migratory shorebirds. Decisions around offset placement should be driven by the potential to achieve equivalent ecological outcomes; however, when considering more distant offsets, there is a need to evaluate the likely increased risks alongside the potential benefits. Although spatially flexible offsets have the potential to provide more cost-effective biodiversity outcomes and more cobenefits, our case study showed the difficulty of demonstrating these benefits in practice and the potential risks that need to be considered to ensure effective offset placement.

Estudio de los riesgos y beneficios de la flexibilidad en la ubicación de compensación de la biodiversidad en el estudio de caso de aves costeras migratorias Resumen Las compensaciones de la biodiversidad buscan contrabalancear el impacto residual que tiene el desarrollo sobre las especies y los ecosistemas. Los documentos guía recomiendan explícitamente que las acciones de estas compensaciones estén ubicadas cerca del lugar del impacto debido al potencial elevado de que haya condiciones ecológicas similares, aunque ya hay propuestas de una mayor flexibilidad espacial. Analizamos las circunstancias bajo las cuales las compensaciones alejadas del lugar de impacto tendrían mayor probabilidad de lograr pérdidas netas nulas o de proporcionar mejores resultados ecológicos que las compensaciones cercanas al área de impacto. Aplicamos un modelo gráfico para las aves costeras migratorias en el corredor aéreo asiático-australasiático del este como estudio de caso para estudiar los problemas que surgen cuando se incorpora la flexibilidad espacial a la planeación de las compensaciones. Las compensaciones espacialmente flexibles pueden mitigar los impactos más efectivamente que las compensaciones locales; sin embargo, los riesgos que esto involucra pueden ser considerables. En nuestro estudio de caso hubo datos insuficientes para concluir contundentemente sobre la efectividad y equivalencia de las compensaciones basadas en los hábitats distantes para las aves costeras migratorias. Las decisiones en torno a la ubicación de las compensaciones deberían estar impulsadas por el potencial para obtener resultados ecológicos equivalentes; sin embargo, al considerar compensaciones más alejadas, existe la necesidad de evaluar el incremento probable de riesgos junto a los beneficios potenciales. Aunque las compensaciones espacialmente flexibles tienen el potencial para proporcionar resultados más rentables y más beneficios colaterales, nuestro estudio de caso mostró la dificultad para demostrar estos beneficios en la práctica y los riesgos potenciales que necesitan considerarse para asegurar una ubicación efectiva de las compensaciones.

Retaining natural vegetation to safeguard biodiversity and humanity.

Global efforts to deliver internationally agreed goals to reduce carbon emissions, halt biodiversity loss, and retain essential ecosystem services have been poorly integrated. These goals rely in part on preserving natural (e.g., native, largely unmodified) and seminatural (e.g., low intensity or sustainable human use) forests, woodlands, and grasslands. To show how to unify these goals, we empirically derived spatially explicit, quantitative, area-based targets for the retention of natural and seminatural (e.g., native) terrestrial vegetation worldwide. We used a 250-m-resolution map of natural and seminatural vegetation cover and, from this, selected areas identified under different international agreements as being important for achieving global biodiversity, carbon, soil, and water targets. At least 67 million km2 of Earth's terrestrial vegetation (∼79% of the area of vegetation remaining) required retention to contribute to biodiversity, climate, soil, and freshwater conservation objectives under 4 United Nations' resolutions. This equates to retaining natural and seminatural vegetation across at least 50% of the total terrestrial (excluding Antarctica) surface of Earth. Retention efforts could contribute to multiple goals simultaneously, especially where natural and seminatural vegetation can be managed to achieve cobenefits for biodiversity, carbon storage, and ecosystem service provision. Such management can and should co-occur and be driven by people who live in and rely on places where natural and sustainably managed vegetation remains in situ and must be complemented by restoration and appropriate management of more human-modified environments if global goals are to be realized.

Retención de la vegetación natural para salvaguardar la biodiversidad y la humanidad Resumen Hoy en día hay muy poca integración de los esfuerzos mundiales para alcanzar los objetivos internacionales de reducción de las emisiones de carbono, impedimento de la pérdida de biodiversidad y conservación de los servicios ambientales esenciales. Estos objetivos dependen parcialmente de la conservación de los bosques, selvas y praderas naturales (por ejemplo, nativos y en su mayoría sin alteraciones) y seminaturales (por ejemplo, de uso humano sostenible o de baja intensidad). Obtuvimos de manera empírica objetivos espacialmente explícitos, cuantitativos y basados en áreas para la conservación de la vegetación terrestre natural y seminatural (por ejemplo, nativa) en todo el mundo para mostrar cómo unificar los objetivos internacionales. Usamos un mapa de 250 m de resolución de la cubierta vegetal natural y seminatural y, a partir de él, seleccionamos las áreas identificadas como importantes en diferentes acuerdos internacionales para alcanzar los objetivos globales de biodiversidad, carbono, suelo y agua. Al menos 67 millones de km2 de la vegetación terrestre de la Tierra (∼79% de la superficie de vegetación restante) requieren ser conservados para contribuir a los objetivos de conservación de la biodiversidad, el clima, el suelo y el agua dulce en virtud de cuatro de las resoluciones de las Naciones Unidas. Esto equivale a conservar la vegetación natural y seminatural en al menos el 50% de la superficie terrestre total de la Tierra (sin contar a la Antártida). Los esfuerzos de retención podrían contribuir a alcanzar múltiples objetivos simultáneamente, especialmente en donde la vegetación natural y seminatural puede gestionarse para lograr beneficios colaterales para la biodiversidad, el almacenamiento de carbono y la provisión de servicios ambientales. Esta gestión puede y debe ser impulsada y llevada a cabo por las personas que viven en y dependen de los lugares donde la vegetación natural y gestionada de forma sostenible permanece in situ y debe complementarse con la restauración y la gestión adecuada de entornos modificados por el hombre si se quieren alcanzar los objetivos globales.

Climate change drives expansion of Antarctic ice-free habitat.

Antarctic terrestrial biodiversity occurs almost exclusively in ice-free areas that cover less than 1% of the continent. Climate change will alter the extent and configuration of ice-free areas, yet the distribution and severity of these effects remain unclear. Here we quantify the impact of twenty-first century climate change on ice-free areas under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate forcing scenarios using temperature-index melt modelling. Under the strongest forcing scenario, ice-free areas could expand by over 17,000 km2 by the end of the century, close to a 25% increase. Most of this expansion will occur in the Antarctic Peninsula, where a threefold increase in ice-free area could drastically change the availability and connectivity of biodiversity habitat. Isolated ice-free areas will coalesce, and while the effects on biodiversity are uncertain, we hypothesize that they could eventually lead to increasing regional-scale biotic homogenization, the extinction of less-competitive species and the spread of invasive species.

Using modern portfolio theory to enhance ecosystem service delivery: A case study from China.

：Land management strategies often prioritize agricultural supply services at the expense of other ecosystem services. To achieve a high and steady supply of multiple ecosystem services, it is essential to optimize land management practices in areas suitable for agriculture. However, many studies on land management tend to focus on their benefits to ecosystem service delivery without adequately considering the potential risks to other services that might be involved. Here we use modern portfolio theory to quantitatively measure benefits and risks from land management strategies to enhance ecosystem services. We create seven land management scenarios that balance different kinds of ecosystem services in different ways in the agricultural production area of Maoming, Guangdong Province, China. The method yielded optimal portfolios of land management patterns that enhanced ecosystem services while reducing risk as much as possible. This includes a scenario delivering a 22% increase in agricultural production service, while simultaneously increasing the provision of nature-related ecosystem services by 2%. However, no optimization scenario was perfect, and there was always a trade-off between gaining certain ecosystem service benefits and creating a risk of losing others. Our portfolio theory approach reveals that it is essential to consider both the benefits and risks of land management strategies.

Effects of anthropogenic landscapes on population maintenance of waterbirds.

Anthropogenic impacts have reduced natural areas but increased the area of anthropogenic landscapes. There is debate about whether anthropogenic landscapes (e.g., farmlands, orchards, and fish ponds) provide alternatives to natural habitat and under what circumstances. We considered whether anthropogenic landscapes can mitigate population declines for waterbirds. We collected data on population trends and biological traits of 1203 populations of 579 species across the planet. Using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models, we tested whether the ability of a species to use an anthropogenic landscape can predict population trends of waterbird globally and of species of conservation concern. Anthropogenic landscapes benefited population maintenance of common but not less-common species. Conversely, the use of anthropogenic landscapes was associated with population declines for threatened species. Our findings delineate some limitations to the ability of anthropogenic landscapes to mitigate population declines, suggesting that the maintenance of global waterbird populations depends on protecting remaining natural areas and improving the habitat quality in anthropogenic landscapes. Article impact statement: Protecting natural areas and improving the quality of anthropogenic landscapes as habitat are both needed to achieve effective conservation.

Efectos de los Paisajes Antropogénicos sobre la Conservación de Poblaciones de Aves Acuáticas Resumen Los impactos antropogénicos han reducido las áreas naturales, pero han incrementado el área de los paisajes antropogénicos. Existe un debate sobre si los paisajes antropogénicos (p. ej.: campos de cultivo, huertos, estanques de peces) proporcionan alternativas al hábitat natural y bajo cuáles circunstancias. Consideramos si los paisajes antropogénicos pueden mitigar las declinaciones poblacionales de las aves acuáticas. Recolectamos datos sobre las tendencias poblacionales y las características biológicas de 1203 poblaciones de 579 especies de aves de todo el mundo. Mediante modelos bayesianos generalizados lineales mixtos, analizamos si la habilidad de una especie para usar un paisaje antropogénico puede pronosticar las tendencias poblacionales de las aves acuáticas a nivel mundial y de las especies de interés para la conservación. Los paisajes antropogénicos beneficiaron a la conservación de las poblaciones de especies comunes, pero no para las especies menos comunes. Por otro lado, el uso de paisajes antropogénicos estuvo asociado con las declinaciones poblacionales en las especies amenazadas. Nuestros descubrimientos delinean algunas limitaciones que tienen los paisajes antropogénicos para mitigar las declinaciones poblacionales, lo que sugiere que la conservación mundial de las poblaciones de aves acuáticas depende de la protección de las áreas naturales remanentes y del mejoramiento de la calidad del hábitat en los paisajes antropogénicos.

An emerging coastal wetland management dilemma between mangrove expansion and shorebird conservation.

Coastal wetlands around the world have been degraded by human activities. Global declines in the extent of important habitats including mangroves, salt marsh and tidal flats necessitate mitigation and restoration efforts, however some well-meaning management actions, particularly mangrove afforestation and breakwater construction, can inadvertently cause further loss and degradation if these actions are not planned carefully. In particular, there is a potential conflict between mangrove and shorebird conservation, because mangrove afforestation and restoration may occur at the expense of bare tidal flats, which form the main foraging habitats for threatened coastal migratory shorebirds as well as supporting other coastal organisms. Here, we present several case studies that illustrate the trade-off between mangroves and bare tidal flats. To investigate whether these examples reflect an emerging broad-scale issue, we use satellite imagery to develop a detailed quantification of the change in mangrove habitat extent in 22 important shorebird areas in mainland China between 2000 and 2015. Our results indicate that 1) the extent of mangroves across all sites expanded significantly between 2000 and 2015 (p < 0.01, n = 14) while tidal flat extent in the same areas declined significantly within the same period (p < 0.01, n = 21); 2) among the 14 sites where mangroves were present, the dual threat of mangrove expansion and tidal flat loss have considerably reduced shorebird habitat in eight of these sites. To ensure effective conservation of both mangroves and shorebirds, we propose a decision tree framework for resolving this emerging dilemma between mangrove afforestation and shorebird protection, which requires careful consideration of alternative management strategies. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Seasonal spatial dynamics of butterfly migration.

Understanding the seasonal movements of migratory species underpins ecological studies. Several hundred butterfly species show migratory behaviour, yet the spatial pattern of these migrations is poorly understood. We developed climatic niche models for 405 migratory butterfly species globally to estimate patterns of seasonal movement and the distribution of seasonal habitat suitability. We found strong seasonal variation in habitat suitability for most migratory butterflies with >75% of pixels within their distributions showing seasonal switching in predicted occupancy for 85% of species. The greatest rate of seasonal switching occurred in the tropics. Several species showed extreme range fluctuations between seasons, exceeding 10-fold for 53 species (13%) and more than 100-fold for nine species (2%), suggesting that such species may be at elevated extinction risk. Our results can be used to search for the ecological processes that underpin migration in insects, as well as to design conservation interventions for declining migratory insects.

Trends in seabird breeding populations across the Great Barrier Reef.

The Great Barrier Reef is an iconic ecosystem, known globally for its rich marine biodiversity that includes many thousands of tropical breeding seabirds. Despite indications of localized declines in some seabird species from as early as the mid-1990s, trends in seabird populations across the reef have never been quantified. With a long history of human impact and ongoing environmental change, seabirds are likely sentinels in this important ecosystem. Using 4 decades of monitoring data, we estimated site-specific trends for 9 seabird species from 32 islands and cays across the reef. Trends varied markedly among species and sites, but probable declines occurred at 45% of the 86 species-by-site combinations analyzed compared with increases at 14%. For 5 species, we combined site-specific trends into a multisite trend in scaled abundance, which revealed probable declines of Common Noddy (Anous stolidus), Sooty Tern (Onychoprion fuscatus), and Masked Booby (Sula dactylatra), but no long-term changes in the 2 most widely distributed species, Greater Crested Tern (Thalasseus bergii) and Brown Booby (Sula leucogaster). For Brown Booby, long-term stability largely resulted from increases at a single large colony on East Fairfax Island that offset declines at most other sites. Although growth of the Brown Booby population on East Fairfax points to the likely success of habitat restoration on the island, it also highlights a general vulnerability wherein large numbers of some species are concentrated at a small number of key sites. Identifying drivers of variation in population change across species and sites while ensuring long-term protection of key sites will be essential to securing the future of seabirds on the reef.

Tendencias en las Poblaciones de Aves Marinas Reproductoras a lo largo de la Gran Barrera de Arrecifes Resumen La Gran Barrera de Arrecife es un ecosistema icónico, conocido mundialmente por la riqueza de biodiversidad marina que incluye a miles de aves marinas tropicales en reproducción. A pesar de las indicaciones de la declinación localizada de algunas especies de aves marinas que datan desde tan temprano como mediados de la década de 1990, nunca se han cuantificado las tendencias de las poblaciones de aves marinas a lo largo del arrecife. Con una larga historia de impacto antropogénico y el cambio climático en curso, las aves marinas son los probables centinelas de este importante ecosistema. Usamos cuatro décadas de datos de monitoreo para estimar las tendencias específicas de sitio para nueve especies de aves marinas en 32 islas y cayos en todo el arrecife. Las tendencias variaron notablemente entre especies y sitios, aunque las declinaciones probables ocurrieron en 45% de las 86 combinaciones de especie por sitio analizadas en comparación con los incrementos al 14%. Combinamos las tendencias específicas de sitio para cinco especies con una tendencia multisitio con abundancia escalada. Lo anterior reveló declinaciones probables para las siguientes especies: Anous stolidus, Onychoprion fuscatus y Sula dactylatra, pero ningún cambio a largo plazo para las dos especies con mayor distribución: Thalasseus bergii y Sula leucogaster. Para Sula leucogaster, la estabilidad a largo plazo resultó principalmente de los incrementos en una gran colonia única en la isla Fairfax del Este, la cual compensó las declinaciones en casi todos los demás sitios. Aunque el crecimiento de la población de Sula leucogaster en la isla Fairfax del Este apunta hacia el éxito probable de la restauración del hábitat en la isla, también resalta una vulnerabilidad general en la que los grandes números de algunas especies están concentrados en un número reducido de sitios importantes. La identificación de los causantes de la variación en los cambios poblacionales en las especies y en los sitios mientras se asegura la protección a largo plazo de los sitios importantes será esencial para asegurar el futuro de las aves marinas del arrecife.

Global protected-area coverage and human pressure on tidal flats.

Tidal flats are a globally distributed coastal ecosystem important for supporting biodiversity and ecosystem services. Local to continental-scale studies have documented rapid loss of tidal habitat driven by human impacts, but assessments of progress in their conservation are lacking. With an internally consistent estimate of distribution and change, based on Landsat satellite imagery, now available for the world's tidal flats, we examined tidal flat representation in protected areas (PAs) and human pressure on tidal flats. We determined tidal flat representation and its net change in PAs by spatially overlaying tidal flat maps with the World Database of Protected Areas. Similarly, we overlaid the most recent distribution map of tidal flats (2014-2016) with the human modification map (HMc ) (range from 0, no human pressure, to 1, very high human pressure) to estimate the human pressure exerted on this ecosystem. Sixty-eight percent of the current extent of tidal flats is subject to moderate to very high human pressure (HMc > 0.1), but 31% of tidal flat extent occurred in PAs, far exceeding PA coverage of the marine (6%) and terrestrial (13%) realms. Net change of tidal flat extent inside PAs was similar to tidal flat net change outside PAs from 1999 to 2016. Substantial shortfalls in protection of tidal flats occurred across Asia, where large intertidal extents coincided with high to very high human pressure (HMc > 0.4-1.0) and net tidal flat losses up to 86.4 km² (95% CI 83.9-89.0) occurred inside individual PAs in the study period. Taken together, our results show substantial progress in PA designation for tidal flats globally, but that PA status alone does not prevent all habitat loss. Safeguarding the world's tidal flats will thus require deeper understanding of the factors that govern their dynamics and effective policy that promotes holistic coastal and catchment management strategies.

Cobertura Mundial de Áreas Protegidas y la Presión Humana sobre las Planicies Mareales Resumen Las planicies mareales son un ecosistema costero con distribución global e importancia para el mantenimiento de la biodiversidad y los servicios ambientales. Existen estudios, desde locales hasta continentales, que han documentado la pérdida acelerada del hábitat mareal causado por el impacto humano, aunque las evaluaciones sobre el progreso en su conservación son muy pocas. Ahora que está disponible una estimación internamente coherente de la distribución y el cambio, basado en las imágenes satelitales de Landsat, de las planicies mareales del mundo, examinamos la representación de estas planicies dentro de las áreas protegidas (APs) y la presión humana sobre las mismas. Determinamos la representación de las planicies mareales y su cambio neto dentro de las APs mediante la superposición espacial de los mapas de las planicies mareales y la Base de Datos Mundial de Áreas Protegidas. De manera similar, superpusimos el mapa más reciente de la distribución de las planicies mareales (2014-2016) en el mapa de modificaciones humanas (MH) (abarca desde 0, ninguna presión humana, hasta 1, presión humana muy alta) para estimar la presión humana ejercida sobre este ecosistema. El 68% de la extensión actual de las planicies mareales está sujeta a una presión humana desde moderada hasta muy alta (MH > 0.1), aunque el 31% de la extensión de las planicies mareales se encuentra dentro de las APs, lo que excede por mucho el porcentaje de protección de los dominios marino (6%) y terrestre (13%). El cambio neto de la extensión de las planicies mareales dentro de las APs fue similar al cambio neto de las planicies fuera de las APs entre 1999 y 2016. La insuficiencia sustancial de la protección de las planicies mareales ocurrió en Asia, en donde grandes extensiones intermareales coincidieron con una presión humana alta y muy alta (MH > 0.4-1.0) y la pérdida neta de planicies mareales de hasta 86.4 km² (95% IC 83.9-89.0) ocurrió dentro de una sola AP durante el periodo de estudio. Si se consideran en conjunto, nuestros resultados muestran un progreso importante en la designación de AP para las planicies mareales a nivel mundial, aunque el solo estado de AP no previene la pérdida de hábitat. Salvaguardar las planicies mareales del planeta por lo tanto requerirá de un entendimiento más profundo de los factores que rigen sobre sus dinámicas y de políticas efectivas que promuevan estrategias holísticas de manejo costero y de captación.

Dual threat of tidal flat loss and invasive Spartina alterniflora endanger important shorebird habitat in coastal mainland China.

China's coastal wetlands are critically important to shorebirds. Substantial loss of tidal flats, shorebirds' primary foraging grounds, has occurred from land claim and other processes, and is driving population declines in multiple species. Smooth cordgrass Spartina alterniflora was intentionally introduced to the coast of China in 1979 to promote conversion of tidal flats into dry land and has since spread rapidly. The occurrence of S. alterniflora reduces the availability of foraging and roosting habitat for shorebirds, and may be particularly detrimental in places that have experienced other tidal flat loss. However, the extent to which S. alterniflora is encroaching upon important shorebird habitat throughout coastal mainland China, and its intersection with tidal flat loss, has not been quantified. Here, we i) estimate change in the spatial extent of tidal flats between 2000 and 2015 in coastal mainland China where internationally important numbers of shorebirds have been recorded; ii) map the extent of S. alterniflora coverage in 2015 at the same set of sites; and, iii) investigate where these two threats to important shorebird habitat intersect. Our analysis of remote sensing data indicated a 15% net loss in tidal flat area between 2000 and 2015 across all sites, including a net loss in tidal flat area in 39 of 53 individual sites (74%). Spartina alterniflora occurred at 28 of 53 sites (53%) in 2015, of which 22 sites (79%) also had a net loss in tidal flat area between 2000 and 2015. Combined pressures from tidal flat loss and S. alterniflora invasion were most severe in eastern coastal China. Species highly dependent on migrating through this region, which include the Critically Endangered Spoon-billed Sandpiper and Endangered Nordmann's Greenshank and Far Eastern Curlew, may be particularly impacted. Our results underscore the urgent need to arrest tidal flat declines and develop a comprehensive control program for S. alterniflora in coastal areas of mainland China that are important for shorebirds.