Development and validation of 10-year risk prediction models of cardiovascular disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care using interpretable machine learning-based methods.

AIM: To develop 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed in primary care using machine learning (ML) methods. METHODS: In this 10-year population-based retrospective cohort study, 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients aged 18 years or above, without history of CVD or end-stage renal disease and managed in public primary care clinics in 2008, were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific CVD risk prediction models. The remaining one-third of patients were used as the validation sample to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the models. ML-based methods were applied to missing data imputation, predictor selection, risk prediction modelling, model interpretation, and model evaluation. Cox regression was used to develop the statistical models in parallel for comparison. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.75 years, 32 445 patients (22.9%) developed CVD. Age, T2DM duration, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), systolic blood pressure variability and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) variability were the most important predictors. ML models also identified nonlinear effects of several predictors, particularly the U-shaped effects of eGFR and body mass index. The ML models showed a Harrell's C statistic of >0.80 and good calibration. The ML models performed significantly better than the Cox regression models in CVD risk prediction and achieved better risk stratification for individual patients. CONCLUSION: Using routinely available predictors and ML-based algorithms, this study established 10-year CVD risk prediction models for Chinese T2DM patients in primary care. The findings highlight the importance of renal function indicators, and variability in both blood pressure and HbA1c as CVD predictors, which deserve more clinical attention. The derived risk prediction tools have the potential to support clinical decision making and encourage patients towards self-care, subject to further research confirming the models' feasibility, acceptability and applicability at the point of care.

Prediction models and nomograms for 10-year risk of end-stage renal disease in Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients in primary care.

AIMS: To develop and validate 10-year risk prediction models, nomograms and charts for end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in primary care, in order to guide individualized treatment. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a 10-year population-based observational cohort study. A total of 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients without history of cardiovascular disease or ESRD who were managed in public primary care clinics in 2008 were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of these patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific ESRD risk prediction models using Cox regressions. The validity and accuracy of the models were tested on the remaining third of patients using Harrell's C-index. We selected variables based on their clinical and statistical importance to construct the nomograms and charts. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 9.75 years. The cumulative incidence of ESRD was 6.0% (men: 6.1%, women: 5.9%). Age, diabetes duration, systolic blood pressure (SBP), SBP variability, diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), HbA1c variability, urine albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were significant predictors for both sexes. Smoking and total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio were additional significant predictors for men and women, respectively. The models showed Harrell's C-statistics of 0.889/0.889 (women/men). Age, eGFR, UACR, SBP and HbA1c were selected for both sexes to develop nomograms and charts. CONCLUSIONS: Using routinely available variables, the 10-year ESRD risk of Chinese T2DM patients in primary care can be predicted with approximately 90% accuracy. We have developed different tools to facilitate routine ESRD risk prediction in primary care, so that individualized care can be provided to prevent or delay ESRD in T2DM patients.

Development and pilot evaluation of a mobile app on parent-child exercises to improve physical activity and psychosocial outcomes of Hong Kong Chinese children.

BACKGROUND: Parent-child exercises involve children and parents to do workout together and have positive effects on physical and mental health. We developed a mobile app on parent-child exercises called Family Move, which combines coaching videos with game features such as points and level system to enhance the health and wellbeing of both children and parents through parent-child exercises. This pilot pre-post study investigated whether the Family Move app-based intervention had a positive effect on children's health-related quality of life (HRQOL), psychosocial wellbeing, and physical activity (PA) level. METHODS: We recruited 67 parent-child pairs. During the 8-week intervention, these pairs were invited to perform parent-child exercises using the Family Move app. Points were automatically added to the user account after viewing a coaching video. In-game ranking was available to enhance user engagement. Parent proxy-report questionnaires on children's HRQOL, psychosocial wellbeing, and PA were administered at baseline and 1- and 6-month follow-up. Paired samples t-tests were conducted to evaluate post-intervention changes in child outcomes (HRQOL, psychosocial wellbeing, and PA). Multiple linear regressions were used to examine these changes as a function of in-game ranking. RESULTS: 52 (78%) viewed at least one coaching video in the Family Move app. Children's PA level significantly increased at 1-month (d = 0.32, p = 0.030) and 6-month (d = 0.30, p = 0.042) follow-up, whereas their psychosocial problems declined at 6-month follow-up (d = 0.35, p = 0.005). Higher in-game ranking was significantly associated with fewer psychosocial problems at 1-month follow-up (ß = - 0.15, p = 0.030). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the Family Move app could be a possible intervention to increase children's PA level and psychosocial wellbeing through parent-child exercise. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03279354 , registered September 11, 2017 (Prospectively registered).

Development of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model and tools for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

AIMS: Evidence-based cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk prediction models and tools specific for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are currently unavailable. This study aimed to develop and validate a CVD risk prediction model for Chinese T2DM patients. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted with 137 935 Chinese patients aged 18 to 79 years with T2DM and without prior history of CVD, who had received public primary care services between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2010. Using the derivation cohort over a median follow-up of 5 years, the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox proportional hazards regression with a forward stepwise approach. Harrell's C statistic and calibration plot were used on the validation cohort to assess the discrimination and calibration of the models. The web calculator and chart were developed based on the developed models. RESULTS: For both genders, predictors for higher risk of CVD were older age, smoking, longer diabetes duration, usage of anti-hypertensive drug and insulin, higher body mass index, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, a total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (TC/HDL-C) ratio and urine albumin to creatinine ratio, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Interaction factors with age demonstrated a greater weighting of TC/HDL-C ratio in both younger females and males, and smoking status and HbA1c in younger males. CONCLUSION: The developed models, translated into a web calculator and color-coded chart, served as evidence-based visual aids that facilitate clinicians to estimate quickly the 5-year CVD risk for Chinese T2DM patients and to guide intervention.

Evaluation of the internal and external responsiveness of Short Form-12 Health Survey version 2 (SF-12v2) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PURPOSE: The evidence on the responsiveness of the Short Form-12 Health Survey version 2 (SF-12v2) in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is limited. The aim of this study was to examine both the internal and external responsiveness of the SF-12 measures in Chinese patients with T2DM. METHODS: A prospective longitudinal observational study was conducted on 1443 T2DM patients managed in public primary care clinics between 2012 and 2013. These patients were surveyed at baseline and at 12 months using SF-12v2. The internal responsiveness was evaluated by linear mixed effect models. Meanwhile, the external responsiveness was tested by multiple linear regression models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. RESULTS: The internal responsiveness of the SF-12v2 to detect negative change was satisfactory among T2DM patients in worsened group, but only the general health domain of SF-12v2 could detect positive change among T2DM patients with improved group. For external responsiveness, the SF-12v2 detected a significant difference-in-difference between patients with worsened and stable/improved group, but not between patients with stable and improved group. The areas under the ROC curve for all domains and summary scales of the SF-12v2 were not statistically different from 0.7. CONCLUSION: This study showed that the responsiveness of SF-12v2 might not achieve the standard. Despite the wide use of the SF-12v2, we would like to urge that both clinicians and researchers should use it with caution in longitudinal study.

Statin use reduces cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality amongst Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a 5-year cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The benefit of statin on the management of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) among Chinese patients in primary care is not clear nor fully implemented in clinical practice. This study aimed to evaluate and quantify the benefit of statin on the overall cardiovascular risk and all-cause mortality in patients with T2DM. METHODS: Uncomplicated diabetic patients with baseline low-density-lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) > 2.6 mmol/L and without statin use before baseline in 2010 were followed-up for 5 years for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and all-cause mortality. Propensity score matching analysis was conducted to identify patients who were newly prescribed statin at baseline and then compared to non-statin users with similar baseline characteristics. Subgroup analysis was done within the statin group to detect any difference in outcomes between patients achieving target LDL-C of <2.6 mmol/L and not. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression with adjustment of all baseline covariates was used to evaluate the effect of statin on outcome events. Hazard ratio (HR) and its 95% confidence intervals were reported. RESULTS: 10,104 pairs of diabetic patients were propensity score matched. Statin users had an extra drop of 1.21 mmol/L in LDL-C than non-users. Statin group had a CVD incidence rate of 16.533 per 1000 person-years whereas comparison group had 32.387 per 1000 person-years (HR: 0.458) during a median follow-up period of 50.5 months. Statin group had a mortality rate of 8.138 deaths per 1000 person-years whereas comparison group had 19.603 deaths per 1000 person-years (HR: 0.378). For patients prescribed with statin, the HR was 0.491 for CVD and 0.487 for all-cause mortality if target of LDL-C < 2.6 mmol/L achieved compare to those not achieved. CONCLUSIONS: Use of statin was associated with a significant decrease in CVD risk and all-cause mortality among diabetic patients in primary care, and the risk reduction was most significant if the target of LDL-C less than 2.6 mmol/L was achieved.

Maternal mental quality of life mediates the associations between intimate partner abuse against mothers and their children's behaviours and quality of life in low-income Chinese families.

PURPOSE: To explore the association between maternal intimate partner abuse (IPA) and their children's health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and behavioural problem, and to establish a mediation model and investigate the mediating role of mothers' HRQOL on this association. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 197 mothers of 227 children (112 boys and 115 girls) from low-income Chinese families. The mothers were asked to complete the 5-item abuse assessment screen questionnaire for the presence of IPA, the Chinese (Hong Kong) version of 12-item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-12) for their HRQOL and a structured socio-demographics questionnaire. One of the parents completed the Child Health Questionnaire-Parent Form-50 (CHQ-PF50) and the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ) to report on their children's HRQOL and behavioural problems, respectively. The mediating effect of the maternal HRQOL on the relationship between maternal IPA status and their children's behavioural problems and HRQOL was tested using Baron and Kenney's multistage regression approach and bootstrapping method. RESULTS: Thirty-five of the 197 mothers reported IPA (17.8%). Children whose mothers had experienced IPA had lower scores in the CHQ-PF50 mental health, parental impact-emotional, family activities and family cohesion subscales, and the psychosocial summary score compared to children of mothers who reported no IPA; they also had more emotional, conduct and hyperactivity/inattention problems and higher total difficulties scores measured by the SDQ. Maternal mental HRQOL was a mediator on the relationship between maternal IPA status and their children's behavioural problems and psychosocial HRQOL. CONCLUSION: IPA experienced by mothers had significant negative impacts on their children's HRQOL and behaviours, which was mediated by maternal mental HRQOL.

Poverty and health-related quality of life of people living in Hong Kong: comparison of individuals from low-income families and the general population.

Background: To assess health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among Chinese adults from low-income households in Hong Kong, and to explore any threshold of household income that impaired HRQOL. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted on 298 adults from low-income families when they enrolled into a cohort study between 2012 and 2014. HRQOL was measured by the 12-item Short-Form Health Survey-version 2 (SF-12v2). Their mean SF-12v2 subscale and summary scores were compared with those of 596 age-sex-matched subjects randomly selected from a database of 2763 adults from the Hong Kong general population (ratio = 1:2). Multiple linear regressions were conducted to determine any association between monthly household income and HRQOL. Results: Subjects from low-income households had significantly lower SF-12v2 bodily pain, general health, vitality and physical component summary (PCS) scores than the age-sex matched subjects from the general population. Subgroup analysis showed that a household income <50% of the median monthly household income in Hong Kong (HK$10 000 ≈ US$1290, i.e. poverty line in Hong Kong) was independently associated with poorer PCS and mental component summary (MCS) scores after adjustment for socio-demographics and co-morbidities. Conclusion: Chinese adults from low-income households had poorer HRQOL, and <50% of the median monthly household income seems to be the threshold for impairment of both physical and mental HRQOL. The findings support the current definition of the poverty line.

Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio with incidence of cardiovascular diseases and mortality in chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus - a population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) are renal markers associated with risks of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all-cause mortality in diabetic patients. This study aims to quantify such risks in Chinese diabetic patients based on eGFR and UACR. METHODS: This was a territory-wide retrospective cohort study on primary care diabetic patients with documented eGFR and UACR but without baseline CVD in 2008/2009. They were followed up till 2013 on CVD events and mortality. Associations between eGFR/UACR and incidence of CVD/mortality were evaluated by multivariable Cox proportional models adjusted with socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. RESULTS: The data of 66,311 patients who had valid baseline eGFR and UACR values were analysed. The risks of CVD events and mortality increased exponentially with the decrease in eGFR, with a hazard ratio (HR) increasing from 1.63 to 4.55 for CVD, and from 1.70 to 9.49 for mortality, associated with Stage 3 to 5 CKD, compared to Stage 1 CKD. UACR showed a positive linear association with CVD events and mortality. Microalbuminuria was associated with a HR of 1.58 and 2.08 for CVD and mortality in male (1.48 and 1.79 for female), respectively, compared to no microalbuminuria. Male patients with UACR 1-1.4 mg/mmol and eGFR ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2 (60-89 ml/min/1.73 m2) had a HR of 1.25 (1.43) for CVD. Female patients with UACR 2.5-3.4 mg/ml and eGFR ≥90 ml/min/1.73 m2 (60-89 ml/min/1.73 m2) had a HR of 1.45 (1.65) for CVD. CONCLUSIONS: Risks of CVD events and mortality increased exponentially with eGFR drop, while UACR showed positive predictive linear relationships, and the risks started even in high-normal albuminuria. UACR-based HR was further modified according to eGFR level, with risk progressed with CKD stage. Combining eGFR and UACR level was more accurate in predicting risk of CVD/mortality. The findings call for more aggressive screening and intervention of microalbuminuria in diabetic patients.

Prediction of new onset of end stage renal disease in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus - a population-based retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Since diabetes mellitus (DM) is the leading cause of end stage renal disease (ESRD), this study aimed to develop a 5-year ESRD risk prediction model among Chinese patients with Type 2 DM (T2DM) in primary care. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 149,333 Chinese adult T2DM primary care patients without ESRD in 2010. Using the derivation cohort over a median of 5 years follow-up, the gender-specific models including the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox regression with a forward stepwise approach. Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plot were applied to the validation cohort to assess discrimination and calibration of the models. RESULTS: Prediction models showed better discrimination with Harrell's C-statistics of 0.866 (males) and 0.862 (females) and calibration power from the plots than other established models. The predictors included age, usages of anti-hypertensive drugs, anti-glucose drugs, and Hemogloblin A1c, blood pressure, urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Specific predictors for male were smoking and presence of sight threatening diabetic retinopathy while additional predictors for female included longer duration of diabetes and quadratic effect of body mass index. Interaction factors with age showed a greater weighting of insulin and urine ACR in younger males, and eGFR in younger females. CONCLUSIONS: Our newly developed gender-specific models provide a more accurate 5-year ESRD risk predictions for Chinese diabetic primary care patients than other existing models. The models included several modifiable risk factors that clinicians can use to counsel patients, and to target at in the delivery of care to patients.

Effect of metformin monotherapy on cardiovascular diseases and mortality: a retrospective cohort study on Chinese type 2 diabetes mellitus patients.

BACKGROUND: Many factors influence whether the first-line oral anti-diabetic drug, metformin, should be initiated to a patient with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) early in the course of management in addition to lifestyle modifications. This study aims to evaluate the net effects of metformin monotherapy (MM) on the all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. METHODS: A retrospective 5-year follow-up cohort study was conducted on Chinese adult patients with T2DM and without any CVD history under public primary care. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to compare the risk of all-cause mortality and CVD events (CHD, stroke, heart failure) between patients receiving lifestyle modifications plus MM (MM groups) and those with lifestyle modifications alone (control groups). RESULTS: 3400 pairs of matched patients were compared. MM group had an incidence rate of 7.5 deaths and 11.3 CVD events per 1000 person-years during a median follow-up period of 62.5 months whereas control group had 11.1 deaths and 16.3 per 1000 person-years during a median follow-up period of 43.5-44.5 months. MM group showed a 29.5 and 30-35% risk reduction of all-cause mortality and CVD events (except heart failure) than control group (P < 0.001). MM group was more prone to progress to chronic kidney disease but this was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Type 2 diabetic patients who were started on metformin monotherapy showed improvement in many of the clinical parameters and a reduction in all-cause mortality and CVD events than lifestyle modifications alone. If there is no contraindication and if tolerated, diabetic patients should be prescribed with metformin early in the course of the diabetic management to minimize their risk of having the cardiovascular events and mortality in the long run.

Long-term effects of the multidisciplinary risk assessment and management program for patients with diabetes mellitus (RAMP-DM): a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Studies on the long-term effectiveness of multidisciplinary risk-stratification based management in Chinese population were rare. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of a multidisciplinary risk assessment and management program for patients with diabetes mellitus (RAMP-DM) in reducing the risks of cardiovascular complications and all-cause mortality. METHODS: A prospective cohort study was conducted in 18,188 propensity score matched RAMP-DM participants and subjects with diabetes under usual primary care (9,094 subjects in each group). The study endpoints were the first occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, heart failure (HF), total cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. We constructed multivariable Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate the association between the RAMP-DM intervention and the first occurrence of study endpoints. RESULTS: The median follow-up period was 36 months. Three hundred and ninety-nine CVD events occurred in the RAMP-DM group, as compared with 608 in the control group [adjusted hazard ratio, 0.629; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.554-0.715; P < 0.001]. The total number of all-cause deaths in RAMP-DM group was less than half that of control group (202 vs 552, adjusted hazard ratio, 0.363; 95% CI, 0.308-0.428; P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratios of the RAMP-DM group for CHD, stroke, and HF were 0.570 (95% CI, 0.470-0.691; P < 0.001), 0.652 (95% CI, 0.546-0.780; P < 0.001), and 0.598 (95%CI, 0.446-0.802; P = 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The RAMP-DM intervention was associated with lower incidences of individual and total cardiovascular complications, as well as all-cause mortality over 3 years follow-up. The encouraging results provided evidence to support that the structured risk-stratification management leading by a multidisciplinary clinical team was an effective approach to reduce future cardiovascular complications in people with diabetes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY: NCT02034695, http://www.ClinicalTrials.gov.

Effects of the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) on biomedical outcomes, observed cardiovascular events and cardiovascular risks in primary care: a longitudinal comparative study.

BACKGROUND: To assess whether the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) led to improvements in biomedical outcomes, observed cardiovascular events and predicted cardiovascular risks after 12-month intervention in the primary care setting. METHODS: A random sample of 1,248 people with diabetes enrolled to RAMP-DM for at least 12 months was selected and 1,248 people with diabetes under the usual primary care were matched by age, sex, and HbA1c level at baseline as the usual care group. Biomedical and cardiovascular outcomes were measured at baseline and at 12-month after the enrollment. Difference-in-differences approach was employed to measure the effect of RAMP-DM on the changes in biomedical outcomes, proportion of subjects reaching treatment targets, observed and predicted cardiovascular risks. RESULTS: Compared to the usual care group, RAMP-DM group had lower cardiovascular events incidence (1.21% vs 2.89%, P = 0.003), and net decrease in HbA1c (-0.20%, P < 0.01), SBP (-3.62 mmHg, P < 0.01) and 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks (total CVD risk, -2.06%, P < 0.01; coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, -1.43%, P < 0.01; stroke risk, -0.71%, P < 0.01). The RAMP-DM subjects witnessed significant rises in the proportion of reaching treatment targets of HbA1c, and SBP/DBP. After adjusting for confounding variables, the significance remained for HbA1c, predicted CHD and stroke risks. CONCLUSIONS: The RAMP-DM resulted in greater improvements in HbA1c and reduction in observed and predicted cardiovascular risks at 12 months follow-up, which indicated a risk-stratification multidisciplinary intervention was an effective strategy for managing Chinese people with diabetes in the primary care setting. TRIAL REGISTRY: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02034695.

Home blood pressure monitoring--a trial on the effect of a structured education program.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to assess whether a structured home blood pressure monitoring (HBPM) education program can improve blood pressure control in patients. METHODS: A cluster randomised controlled trial in which half of 240 patients in the intervention group received an education program focused on using HBPM machines at home, while the other half had the usual care. The primary endpoints were mean systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure. RESULTS: Systolic blood pressure dropped 1.88 mmHg (p=0.372) and diastolic blood pressure significantly dropped 3.84 mmHg (p=0.004) in intervention group at 3 months. At 6 months, systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure were still on a decreasing trend, but there was no significant difference in blood pressure changes between the two groups. DISCUSSION: The structured HBPM education program has the potential to improve patient blood pressure control at short term, but such effect appears tailing off at medium terms. Additional components may be needed to maximise and sustain the benefit of HBPM.

Do Negative Emotional States Play a Role in the Association Between Intimate Partner Violence and Poor Health-Related Quality of Life in Chinese Women From Low-Income Families?

A cross-sectional analysis of a dataset of 156 participants in a health assessment program explored whether negative emotional states mediated the association between intimate partner violence (IPV) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Compared with IPV screen-negative participants, those who screened positive had significantly lower HRQoL and significantly higher levels of depression, anxiety, and stress. The inverse associations between the presence of IPV and HRQoL were found to be mediated by depression, anxiety, and stress. Therefore, interventions to alleviate negative emotions in women suffering from IPV have the potential to be useful in improving their HRQoL.

Cost-effectiveness of a primary care multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for patients with diabetes mellitus (RAMP-DM) over lifetime.

PURPOSE: The multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for patients with diabetes mellitus (RAMP-DM) was found to be cost-saving in comparison with usual primary care over 5 years' follow-up. This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of RAMP-DM over lifetime. METHODS: We built a Discrete Event Simulation model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of RAMP-DM over lifespan from public health service provider's perspective. Transition probabilities among disease states were extrapolated from a cohort of 17,140 propensity score matched participants in RAMP-DM and those under usual primary care over 5-year's follow-up. The mortality of patients with specific DM-related complications was estimated from a cohort of 206,238 patients with diabetes. Health preference and direct medical costs of DM patients referred to our previous studies among Chinese DM patients. RESULTS: RAMP-DM individuals gained 0.745 QALYs and cost US$1404 less than those under usual care. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that RAMP-DM had 86.0% chance of being cost-saving compared to usual care under the assumptions and estimates used in the model. The probability of RAMP-DM being cost-effective compared to usual care would be over 99%, when the willingness to pay threshold is HK$20,000 (US$ 2564) or higher. CONCLUSION: RAMP-DM added to usual primary care was cost-saving in managing people with diabetes over lifetime. These findings support the integration of RAMP-DM as part of routine primary care for all patients with diabetes.

Five-Year Cost-effectiveness of the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme-Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM).

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of the multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme-Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes in comparison with usual primary care in a cohort with 5 years' follow-up. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study among 17,140 propensity score-matched participants in RAMP-DM and those under usual primary care. The effectiveness measures were cumulative incidences of complications and all-cause mortality over 5 years. In a bottom-up approach, we estimated the program costs of RAMP-DM and health service utilization from the public health service provider's perspective. The RAMP-DM program costs included the setup costs, ongoing intervention costs, and central administrative costs. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio by dividing the incremental costs by the incremental effectiveness of the RAMP-DM group compared with those of the usual-care group. RESULTS: There were significantly lower cumulative incidences of individual on any complications (15.34% vs. 28.65%, P < 0.001) and all-cause mortality (7.96% vs. 21.35%, P < 0.001) in the RAMP-DM group compared with the usual-care group. The mean program cost of RAMP-DM was 157 U.S. dollars (range 66-209) per participant over 5 years. The costs of health service utilization among participants in RAMP-DM group was 7,451 USD less than that of the usual-care group, resulting in a net savings of 7,294 USD per individual. CONCLUSIONS: RAMP-DM added to usual primary care was a cost-saving intervention in managing diabetes in patients over 5 years. These findings support the integration of RAMP-DM as part of routine primary care for all patients with diabetes.

Effect of Achieved Systolic Blood Pressure on Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to compare the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) with treated hypertension who achieved systolic blood pressures (SBPs) of <120, <130, and <140 mmHg after an increase in their antihypertensive regimen. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 28,014 primary care adult patients with T2DM with no prior diagnosis of CVD and who achieved SBP readings <140 mmHg after an increase in the number of antihypertensive medications prescribed. Using an extension of propensity score matching, a total of 2,079, 10,851, and 15,084 matched patients with achieved SBP measurements of <120, <130, and <140 mmHg were identified. The association between achieved SBP and incident CVD were evaluated using Cox regressions. Subgroup analyses were conducted by stratifying patients' baseline characteristics. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up period of 4.8 years, the incidence of CVD in patients with achieved SBP measures of <120, <130, and <140 mmHg were 318 (15.3%; incidence rate [IR] 34.3/1,000 person-years [PY]), 992 (9.1%; IR 20.4/1,000 PY), and 1,635 (10.8%; IR 21.4/1,000 PY). Achieved SBP <120 mmHg was associated with a higher risk of CVD compared with achieved SBP <130 mmHg (hazard ratio [HR] 1.75 [95% CI 1.53, 2.00]) and achieved SBP <140 mmHg (HR 1.67 [95% CI 1.46, 1.90]). There was a significant reduction in CVD risk in patients <65 years (HR 0.81 [95% CI 0.69, 0.96]) but no difference for other patients, including patients ≥65 years, who achieved SBP <130 mmHg when compared with the group that achieved SBP <140 mmHg. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support a SBP treatment target of 140 mmHg and suspect no risk reduction attenuation on CVD for lower SBP targets (<120 or <130 mmHg) for most patients with uncomplicated T2DM. A randomized control trial is still needed to confirm these findings.

Five-Year Effectiveness of the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme-Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) on Diabetes-Related Complications and Health Service Uses-A Population-Based and Propensity-Matched Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the 5-year effectiveness of a multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Programme-Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) in primary care patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A 5-year prospective cohort study was conducted with 121,584 Chinese primary care patients with type 2 DM who were recruited between August 2009 and June 2011. Missing data were dealt with multiple imputations. After excluding patients with prior diabetes mellitus (DM)-related complications and one-to-one propensity score matching on all patient characteristics, 26,718 RAMP-DM participants and 26,718 matched usual care patients were followed up for a median time of 4.5 years. The effect of RAMP-DM on nine DM-related complications and all-cause mortality were evaluated using Cox regressions. The first incidence for each event was used for all models. Health service use was analyzed using negative binomial regressions. Subgroup analyses on different patient characteristics were performed. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of all events (DM-related complications and all-cause mortality) was 23.2% in the RAMP-DM group and 43.6% in the usual care group. RAMP-DM led to significantly greater reductions in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk by 56.6% (95% CI 54.5, 58.6), microvascular complications by 11.9% (95% CI 7.0, 16.6), mortality by 66.1% (95% CI 64.3, 67.9), specialist attendance by 35.0% (95% CI 33.6, 36.4), emergency attendance by 41.2% (95% CI 39.8, 42.5), and hospitalizations by 58.5% (95% CI 57.2, 59.7). Patients with low baseline CVD risks benefitted the most from RAMP-DM, which decreased CVD and mortality risk by 60.4% (95% CI 51.8, 67.5) and 83.6% (95% CI 79.3, 87.0), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: This naturalistic study highlighted the importance of early optimal DM control and risk factor management by risk stratification and multidisciplinary, protocol-driven, chronic disease model care to delay disease progression and prevent complications.

A prospective cohort study to investigate parental stress and child health in low-income Chinese families: protocol paper.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic stress has adverse effects on health. Adults and children from low-income families are subject to multiple sources of stress. Existing literature about economic hardship mostly focuses on either adults or children but not both. Moreover, there is limited knowledge on the relationship between parental generalised stress and child health problems. This study aims to explore the bidirectional relationship between parental stress and child health in Chinese low-income families and to identify other modifiable factors influencing this relationship. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective cohort study will sample 254 low-income parent-child pairs and follow them up for 24 months with assessments at three time points (baseline, 12 and 24 months) on parental stress, health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and child health and behaviour using both subjective measures and objective physiological parameters. This study will collect data using standardised measures on HRQOL and behaviours of children as well as on HRQOL, mental health and stress levels of parents along with physiological tests of allostatic load and telomere length. The mediating or moderating effect of family harmony, parenting style and neighbourhood conditions will also be assessed. Data will be analysed using latent growth modelling and cross-lagged path analysis modelling to examine the bidirectional effect of parental stress and child health over time. Mediation and moderation analysis will also be conducted to examine the mechanism by which the variables relate. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the institutional review board of the University of Hong Kong-the Hospital Authority Hong Kong West Cluster, reference no: UW 16-415. The study findings will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and international conferences. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03185273; Pre-results.