Use of Sensitivity Analyses to Assess Uncontrolled Confounding from Unmeasured Variables in Observational, Active Comparator Pharmacoepidemiologic Studies: A Systematic Review.

Understanding the potential for, direction, and magnitude of uncontrolled confounding is critical for generating informative real-world evidence. Many sensitivity analyses are available to assess robustness of study results to residual confounding, but it is unclear how researchers are using these methods. We conducted a systematic review of published active comparator cohort studies of drugs or biologics to summarize use of sensitivity analyses aimed at assessing uncontrolled confounding from an unmeasured variable. We reviewed articles in five medical and seven epidemiologic journals published between January 1, 2017, and June 30, 2022. We identified 158 active comparator cohort studies, 76 from medical and 82 from epidemiologic journals. Residual, unmeasured, or uncontrolled confounding was noted as a potential concern in 93% of studies, but only 84 (53%) implemented one or more sensitivity analysis to assess uncontrolled confounding from an unmeasured variable. The most common analyses were E-values among medical journal articles (21%) and restriction on measured variables among epidemiologic journal articles (22%). Researchers must rigorously consider the role of residual confounding in their analyses and the best sensitivity analyses for assessing this potential bias.

Hazard Ratios and Alternative Effect Measures: An Applied Illustration.

PURPOSE: Although the limitations of hazard ratios (HRs) for quantifying treatment effects in right-censored data have been widely discussed, HRs are still preferentially reported over other, more interpretable effect measures. This may stem from the fact that there are few applied examples that directly contrast the HR and its interpretation with alternative effect measures. METHODS: We analyzed data from two randomized clinical trials comparing panitumumab plus standard-of-care chemotherapy (SOCC) with SOCC alone as first- and second-line treatment for metastatic colorectal cancer. We report the effect of treatment with panitumumab on progression-free survival (PFS) using a Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the HR and the Kaplan-Meier estimator of cumulative incidence (risk). Further analyses included examining the cumulative incidence curves; kernel-smoothed, non-parametric hazards curves; fitting the Cox model with a continuous time variable; and estimating restricted mean survival as well as median survival. RESULTS: The HR was 0.82 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71, 0.93), while the risk ratio (or relative risk [i.e., ratio of the cumulative incidence among the treated versus comparator]) was 0.99 (95% CI: 0.96, 1.02). These two measures suggest apparently different conclusions: either a treatment benefit or no effect. Through subsequent analyses, we demonstrated that, while the cumulative incidence of the outcome was similar by the end of follow-up regardless of treatment, the panitumumab treated group experienced longer PFS than those randomized to SOCC. Substantial nonproportional hazards were evident with panitumumab treatment reducing the hazard of progression/mortality during the first ~1.75 years but associated with an increased hazard of progress/mortality thereafter. DISCUSSION: This example underscores the difficulties in interpreting HRs, particularly in the setting of qualitative violations of proportional hazards, and the value of quantifying treatment effects via multiple effect measures.

Iterative Causal Forest: A Novel Algorithm for Subgroup Identification.

Precisely and efficiently identifying subgroups with heterogeneous treatment effects (HTEs) in real-world evidence studies remains a challenge. Based on the causal forest (CF) method, we developed an iterative CF (iCF) algorithm to identify HTEs in subgroups defined by important variables. Our method iteratively grows different depths of the CF with important effect modifiers, performs plurality votes to obtain decision trees (subgroup decisions) for a family of CFs with different depths, then finds the cross-validated subgroup decision that best predicts the treatment effect as a final subgroup decision. We simulated 12 different scenarios and showed that the iCF outperformed other machine learning methods for interaction/subgroup identification in the majority of scenarios assessed. Using a 20% random sample of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries initiating sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) or glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), we implemented the iCF to identify subgroups with HTEs for hospitalized heart failure. Consistent with previous studies suggesting patients with heart failure benefit more from SGLT2i, iCF successfully identified such a subpopulation with HTEs and additive interactions. The iCF is a promising method for identifying subgroups with HTEs in real-world data where the potential for unmeasured confounding can be limited by study design.

Translation of a Claims-Based Frailty Index From the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification to the Tenth Revision.

The Faurot frailty index (FFI) is a validated algorithm that uses enrollment and International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM)-based billing information from Medicare claims data as a proxy for frailty. In October 2015, the US health-care system transitioned from the ICD-9-CM to the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM). Applying the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services General Equivalence Mappings, we translated diagnosis-based frailty indicator codes from the ICD-9-CM to the ICD-10-CM, followed by manual review. We used interrupted time-series analysis of Medicare data to assess the comparability of the pre- and posttransition FFI scores. In cohorts of beneficiaries enrolled in January 2015-2017 with 8-month frailty look-back periods, we estimated associations between the FFI and 1-year risk of aging-related outcomes (mortality, hospitalization, and admission to a skilled nursing facility). Updated indicators had similar prevalences as pretransition definitions. The median FFI scores and interquartile ranges (IQRs) for the predicted probability of frailty were similar before and after the International Classification of Diseases transition (pretransition: median, 0.034 (IQR, 0.02-0.07); posttransition: median, 0.038 (IQR, 0.02-0.09)). The updated FFI was associated with increased risks of mortality, hospitalization, and skilled nursing facility admission, similar to findings from the ICD-9-CM era. Studies of medical interventions in older adults using administrative claims should use validated indices, like the FFI, to mitigate confounding or assess effect-measure modification by frailty.

Utilization of Treat-to-Target Monitoring Colonoscopy After Treatment Initiation in the US-Based Study of a Prospective Adult Research Cohort With Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Endoscopic healing has been associated with improved long-term clinical outcomes in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and is a recommended target for treatment. Evidence is limited regarding real-world uptake and patterns of treat-to-target monitoring to assess endoscopic healing after treatment initiation. We aimed to estimate the proportion of patients in the Study of a Prospective Adult Research Cohort with IBD (SPARC IBD) who received colonoscopy in the 3-15 months after starting a new IBD treatment. METHODS: We identified SPARC IBD patients who initiated a new biologic (infliximab, adalimumab, certolizumab pegol, golimumab, vedolizumab, and ustekinumab) or tofacitinib. We estimated the proportion of patients who received colonoscopies in the 3-15 months after IBD treatment initiation and described use by patient subgroups. RESULTS: Among 1,708 eligible initiations from 2017 to 2022, the most common medications were ustekinumab (32%), infliximab (22%), vedolizumab (20%), and adalimumab (16%). The median patient age was 38 years, with 66% Crohn's disease; 55% were female, and 12% were non-White. In the 3-15 months after medication initiation, 49.3% (95% confidence interval 46.2%-52.5%) of initiations were followed by a colonoscopy. Colonoscopy use was similar between ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease, but was higher among male patients, those older than 40 years, and those who received colonoscopy within 3 months of initiation. Colonoscopy use varied between study sites, from 26.6% (15.0%-38.3%) to 63.2% (54.5%-72.0%). DISCUSSION: Approximately half of SPARC IBD patients received colonoscopy in the 3-15 months after initiation to a new IBD treatment, suggesting a low uptake of treat-to-target colonoscopy for the assessment of mucosal healing in real-world clinical practice. The variation in colonoscopy use between study sites suggests a lack of consensus and a need for more robust evidence around whether or not the practice of routine monitoring colonoscopy is associated with improved patient outcomes.

Data quality considerations for evaluating COVID-19 treatments using real world data: learnings from the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C).

BACKGROUND: Multi-institution electronic health records (EHR) are a rich source of real world data (RWD) for generating real world evidence (RWE) regarding the utilization, benefits and harms of medical interventions. They provide access to clinical data from large pooled patient populations in addition to laboratory measurements unavailable in insurance claims-based data. However, secondary use of these data for research requires specialized knowledge and careful evaluation of data quality and completeness. We discuss data quality assessments undertaken during the conduct of prep-to-research, focusing on the investigation of treatment safety and effectiveness. METHODS: Using the National COVID Cohort Collaborative (N3C) enclave, we defined a patient population using criteria typical in non-interventional inpatient drug effectiveness studies. We present the challenges encountered when constructing this dataset, beginning with an examination of data quality across data partners. We then discuss the methods and best practices used to operationalize several important study elements: exposure to treatment, baseline health comorbidities, and key outcomes of interest. RESULTS: We share our experiences and lessons learned when working with heterogeneous EHR data from over 65 healthcare institutions and 4 common data models. We discuss six key areas of data variability and quality. (1) The specific EHR data elements captured from a site can vary depending on source data model and practice. (2) Data missingness remains a significant issue. (3) Drug exposures can be recorded at different levels and may not contain route of administration or dosage information. (4) Reconstruction of continuous drug exposure intervals may not always be possible. (5) EHR discontinuity is a major concern for capturing history of prior treatment and comorbidities. Lastly, (6) access to EHR data alone limits the potential outcomes which can be used in studies. CONCLUSIONS: The creation of large scale centralized multi-site EHR databases such as N3C enables a wide range of research aimed at better understanding treatments and health impacts of many conditions including COVID-19. As with all observational research, it is important that research teams engage with appropriate domain experts to understand the data in order to define research questions that are both clinically important and feasible to address using these real world data.

Ondansetron use in early pregnancy and the risk of late pregnancy outcomes.

BACKGROUND: The effects of ondansetron, used off-label to treat nausea and vomiting during pregnancy, on common pregnancy complications are understudied. Modest effects of a commonly used drug could result in adverse events for large numbers of pregnant women. Therefore, our objective was to compare the risk of stillbirth, preterm birth, gestational hypertensive disorders, small for gestational age, and differences in birth weight between women prescribed ondansetron and women prescribed alternative antiemetics in early pregnancy. METHODS: A cohort of pregnant women receiving a prescription for ondansetron or comparator antiemetics (metoclopramide or promethazine) during the first 20 weeks of pregnancy was identified using electronic health record data from a health care system in North Carolina, USA. Confounding by multiple covariates was controlled using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights. Weighted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) accounted for competing events. RESULTS: We identified 2677 eligible pregnancies with antiemetic orders, 66% for ondansetron. The small number of stillbirths (n = 15) resulted in an imprecise estimate of the association with ondansetron (HR = 1.60; 95%CI 0.51, 4.97). No association was observed for preterm birth (HR = 0.90; 95%CI 0.67, 1.20) or gestational hypertensive disorders (HR = 0.87; 95%CI 0.68, 1.12). We observed an association with small for gestational age (HR = 1.37; 95%CI 0.98, 1.90), however mean birth weight among term births was similar between groups. CONCLUSIONS: Our results do not suggest that ondansetron increases the risk of preterm birth or gestational hypertensive disorders. The weak association observed between ondansetron use and small for gestational age warrants further investigation.

Trends in Opioid and Psychotropic Prescription in Pregnancy in the United States From 2001 to 2015 in a Privately Insured Population : A Cross-sectional Study.

BACKGROUND: Opioid and psychotropic prescriptions are common during pregnancy. Little is known about coprescriptions of both medications in this setting. OBJECTIVE: To describe opioid prescription among women who are prescribed psychotropics compared with women who are not. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: U.S. commercial insurance beneficiaries from MarketScan (2001 to 2015). PARTICIPANTS: Pregnant women at 22 weeks' gestation or greater who were insured continuously for 3 months or more before pregnancy through delivery. MEASUREMENTS: Opioid prescription, dosage thresholds (morphine milligram equivalents [MME] of ≥50/day and ≥90/day), number of opioid agents (≥2), and duration (≥30 days) among those with and without prescription of psychotropics, from 2011 to 2015. RESULTS: Among 958 980 pregnant women, 10% received opioids only, 6% psychotropics only, and 2% opioids with coprescription of psychotropics. Opioid prescription was higher among women prescribed psychotropics versus those who were not (26.5% vs. 10.7%). From 2001 to 2015, psychotropic prescription overall increased from 4.4% to 7.6%, opioid prescription without coprescription of psychotropics decreased from 11.9% to 8.4%, and opioids with coprescription decreased from 28.1% to 22.0%. Morphine milligram equivalents of 50 or greater per day decreased for women with and without coprescription (29.6% to 17.3% and 22.8% to 18.5%, respectively); MME of 90 or greater per day also decreased in both groups (15.0% to 4.7% and 11.5% to 4.2%, respectively). Women prescribed opioids only were more likely to have an antepartum hospitalization compared with those with neither prescription, as were women with coprescription versus those prescribed psychotropics only. Compared with those prescribed opioids only, women with coprescriptions were more likely to exceed MME of 90 or greater per day and to be prescribed 2 or more opioid agents and for 30 days or longer. Number and duration of opioids increased with benzodiazepine and gabapentin coprescription. LIMITATION: Inability to determine appropriateness of prescribing or overdose events. CONCLUSION: Opioids are frequently coprescribed with psychotropic medication during pregnancy and are associated with antepartum hospitalization. A substantial proportion of pregnant women are prescribed opioids at doses that increase overdose risk and exceed daily recommendations. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: None.

Incidence of venous thromboembolism following initiation of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in U.S. women.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE, i.e. deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism, or both) following new use of NSAIDs in a long-term cohort of U.S. women. METHODS: We investigated initiation of coxibs and traditional NSAIDs (excluding aspirin) and incident VTE in 39 876 women enrolled in the Women's Health Study from 1993-95 and followed with yearly questionnaires until 2012. We defined initiation as the first reported use of NSAIDs for ≥4 days per month. Incident VTE was confirmed by an end point committee. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and risk differences (RDs, expressed as percentages) comparing NSAID initiation with non-initiation and acetaminophen initiation (active comparator) via standardization using a propensity score that incorporated age, BMI, calendar time, and relevant medical, behavioural, and socioeconomic variables updated over time. RESULTS: The HR (95% CI) for risk of VTE in the as treated analyses comparing initiation with non-initiation, was 1.5 (1.2, 1.8) for any NSAID, 1.3 (1.1, 1.7) for traditional NSAIDs, and 2.0 (1.3, 3.1) for coxibs, with 2-year RDs 0.11, 0.08 and 0.32, respectively. When comparing the risk of VTE after initiation of any NSAID with that after acetaminophen initiation, the HRs were 0.9 (0.6, 1.5), 0.9 (0.5, 1.5) and 1.4 (0.6, 3.4), with 2-year RDs 0.03, -0.01, and 0.13, respectively. CONCLUSION: New use of NSAIDs was associated with increased VTE risk compared with non-use, but the association was null or diminished when compared with acetaminophen initiation. Elevated VTE risks associated with NSAID use in observational studies may in part reflect different baseline risks among individuals who need analgesics and may overstate the risk patients incur compared with pharmacologic alternatives.

Comparison of diagnostic evaluations for cough among initiators of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers.

PURPOSE: Differential diagnostic evaluation associated with a drug may bias effect estimates because of an increased detection of preclinical outcomes. Persistent cough is a common side effect with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEI), and we hypothesized that ACEI initiators would undergo more diagnostic evaluations, potentially leading to diagnosis of preclinical lung cancer. We compared the incidence of cough-related diagnostic evaluations and lung cancer among ACEI versus angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB) initiators. METHODS: Using a 20% sample of Medicare claims 2007-2012, we identified initiators of ACEI or ARB, age 66-99 years. Incidence of diagnostic evaluation and lung cancer were compared using adjusted Cox models. Monthly probabilities of workup were compared using proportion differences. RESULTS: There were 342 611 and 108 116 ACEI and ARB initiators, respectively. Monthly probability of chest X-rays ranged from minimum 4.7% to maximum 21.2% in the 6 months pre and post-initiation. Differences in incidence of diagnostic procedures in the 6 months after initiation were only minimal (chest X-rays hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95% CI: 1.10-1.14), chest-MRI (0.86, 95% CI: 0.74-0.99), CT-scans (1.09, 95% CI: 0.99-1.18) or bronchoscopies (1.03, 95% CI: 0.83-1.29). Proportion differences for chest X-rays peaked in the month pre-initiation (8.4%, 95% CI: 8.1-8.6) but negligible thereafter. There was no difference in the incidence of lung cancer among ACEI versus ARB initiators (HR = 0.99, 95% CI: 0.84-1.16). CONCLUSION: Results indicate minimal differential chest workup after ACEI versus ARB initiation and no difference in lung cancer incidence, but suggest differential workup in the month before the first recorded prescription. The latter may reflect drug use before the first observed pharmacy claim or increased workup before initiation of ACEI therapy. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predictors of prevalent statin use among older adults identified as statin initiators based on Medicare claims data.

PURPOSE: Few studies have evaluated the degree to which prescription drug initiators are correctly identified using claims data. We examine the prevalence and predictors of recent statin possession in statin initiators identified using claims data. METHODS: Among Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey (MCBS) respondents, we used Medicare Part D claims from 2006 to 2011 to identify statin initiators using a 12-month baseline period of no prior statin claims. Using MCBS interview data, we identified those with self-reported statins obtained during the baseline period. We used log-binomial regression to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios (adjPR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for predictors of recent statin possession. RESULTS: Among 766 statin initiators identified in prescription claims, 155 (20%) reported recent statin possession during baseline. Beneficiaries with no Part D claims in the past 30 days (adjPR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.13, 1.96), those with no inpatient, outpatient or physician visits in the past 30 days (adjPR = 1.50, 95%CI: 1.11, 2.03), those with a brand name statin index claim (adjPR = 1.55, 95%CI: 1.19, 2.02), and those with an index claim in January or February (adjPR = 1.50, 95%CI: 1.00, 2.26) had an increased probability of recent statin possession. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort of statin initiators identified using prescription claims, 20% had evidence of statin possession during the baseline period. Pharmacoepidemiologic new user studies may benefit from including sensitivity analyses within subgroups less likely to include prevalent users to assess the robustness of key findings to misidentification of the time of treatment initiation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cohort Study of the Impact of High-Dose Opioid Analgesics on Overdose Mortality.

OBJECTIVE: Previous studies examining opioid dose and overdose risk provide limited granularity by milligram strength and instead rely on thresholds. We quantify dose-dependent overdose mortality over a large spectrum of clinically common doses. We also examine the contributions of benzodiazepines and extended release opioid formulations to mortality. DESIGN: Prospective observational cohort with one year follow-up. SETTING: One year in one state (NC) using a controlled substances prescription monitoring program, with name-linked mortality data. SUBJECTS: Residential population of North Carolina (n = 9,560,234), with 2,182,374 opioid analgesic patients. METHODS: Exposure was dispensed prescriptions of solid oral and transdermal opioid analgesics; person-years calculated using intent-to-treat principles. Outcome was overdose deaths involving opioid analgesics in a primary or additive role. Poisson models were created, implemented using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: Opioid analgesics were dispensed to 22.8% of residents. Among licensed clinicians, 89.6% prescribed opioid analgesics, and 40.0% prescribed ER formulations. There were 629 overdose deaths, half of which had an opioid analgesic prescription active on the day of death. Of 2,182,374 patients prescribed opioids, 478 overdose deaths were reported (0.022% per year). Mortality rates increased gradually across the range of average daily milligrams of morphine equivalents. 80.0% of opioid analgesic patients also received benzodiazepines. Rates of overdose death among those co-dispensed benzodiazepines and opioid analgesics were ten times higher (7.0 per 10,000 person-years, 95 percent CI: 6.3, 7.8) than opioid analgesics alone (0.7 per 10,000 person years, 95 percent CI: 0.6, 0.9). CONCLUSIONS: Dose-dependent opioid overdose risk among patients increased gradually and did not show evidence of a distinct risk threshold. There is urgent need for guidance about combined classes of medicines to facilitate a better balance between pain relief and overdose risk.

Metformin and the risk of endometrial cancer: a population-based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: While some observational studies have suggested a protective effect of metformin on incident cancer, concerns about potential bias remain. We compared the incidence of endometrial cancer in metformin versus sulfonylurea initiators. Research design and methods We conducted a retrospective cohort analysis using US healthcare claims (MarketScan®), 2000-2011. We identified new users of metformin versus sulfonylureas with no prior cancer diagnoses and followed them until a diagnosis of endometrial cancer, hysterectomy, treatment change, or disenrollment. We estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards, using an as-treated analytic approach. Stabilized inverse probability of treatment weights were used to adjust for potential confounding at baseline. RESULTS: Of 541,128 eligible women, 456,838 (84%) initiated metformin and 84,290 (16%) initiated sulfonylurea. The treatment groups differed at baseline in terms of age and recent diagnosis codes for diabetes, polycystic ovarian syndrome, and endometrial hyperplasia. Over a median follow-up of 1.2 (IQR 0.4-2.3) years and a total of 2,030,914 person-years, 729 women developed endometrial cancer. Metformin initiation was associated with a lower risk of endometrial cancer in the unadjusted analysis (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.67-0.97). However, after balancing baseline covariates across groups, metformin was not associated with a reduced risk of endometrial cancer (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.88-1.35). This finding was consistent across multiple sensitivity analyses and subgroup analyses in diabetic patients and relevant age groups. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based cohort of >500,000 women, initiating metformin compared with sulfonylureas was not associated with a reduced risk of developing endometrial cancer.

Comparative Effect of Loop Diuretic Prescription on Mortality and Heart Failure Readmission.

Loop diuretics are a standard pharmacologic therapy in heart failure (HF) management. Although furosemide is most frequently used, torsemide and bumetanide are increasingly prescribed in clinical practice, possibly because of superior bioavailability. Few real-world comparative effectiveness studies have examined outcomes across all 3 loop diuretics. The study goal was to compare the effects of loop diuretic prescribing at HF hospitalization discharge on mortality and HF readmission. We identified patients in Medicare claims data initiating furosemide, torsemide, or bumetanide after an index HF hospitalization from 2007 to 2017. We estimated 6-month risks of all-cause mortality and a composite outcome (HF readmission or all-cause mortality) using inverse probability of treatment weighting to adjust for relevant confounders. We identified 62,632 furosemide, 1,720 torsemide, and 2,389 bumetanide initiators. The 6-month adjusted all-cause mortality risk was lowest for torsemide (13.2%), followed by furosemide (14.5%) and bumetanide (15.6%). The 6-month composite outcome risk was 21.4% for torsemide, 24.7% for furosemide, and 24.9% for bumetanide. Compared with furosemide, the 6-month all-cause mortality risk was 1.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -3.7, 1.0) lower for torsemide and 1.0% (95% CI: -1.2, 3.2) higher for bumetanide, and the 6-month composite outcome risk was 3.3% (95% CI: -6.3, -0.3) lower for torsemide and 0.2% (95% CI: -2.5, 2.9) higher for bumetanide. In conclusion, the findings suggested that the first prescribed loop diuretic following HF hospitalization is associated with clinically important differences in morbidity in older patients receiving torsemide, bumetanide, or furosemide. These differences were consistent for the effect of all-cause mortality alone, but were not statistically significant.

Combined oral contraceptive utilization and uterine fibroid incidence: A prospective study in a cohort of African-American women.

Published associations between combined oral contraceptive use and uterine fibroid development have lacked prospective imaging with ultrasound to distinguish between incident and prevalent fibroids. The Study of Environment, Lifestyle, and Fibroids prospectively followed fibroid-free, African-American women (the group with the highest disease burden in the U.S.) to identify incident cases. We examined associations between combined oral contraceptive use and the 40-month cumulative risk of fibroids. History of hormonal contraceptive use was collected via telephone interview at enrollment. Fibroid identification was performed using transvaginal ultrasonography at enrollment, and at 20 and 40-months of follow-up. Inverse probability weights for exposures and censoring were used to construct weighted risk ratios (wRR) and weighted risk different (wRD) estimators which control for differences in fibroid risk factors between exposure groups. In addition, unweighted fully adjusted log-binomial regression models (aRR) were run for comparison. Of the 1,308 participants in the analysis sample, 70% had used combined oral contraceptives and 17% developed fibroids by 40 months. We observed an inverse association between ever use of combined oral contraceptives and cumulative fibroid incidence (wRR: 0.78; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.60, 1.00; wRD: -0.05, 95% CI: -0.11, 0; aRR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.60, 0.98). Fibroid incidence was greater in participants who started using combined oral contraceptives after age 17 years than among younger initiators, though the restriction to ever-users made this estimate less precise (wRR: 1.25; 95% CI: 0.89, 1.76; wRD: 0.04, 95% CI: -0.02, 0.10). No consistent patterns of fibroid incidence were seen among ever-users for duration of, or years since, last combined oral contraceptives use.

Did GOG99 and PORTEC1 change clinical practice in the United States?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the practice of adjuvant radiation (RT) for endometrial cancer in the United States following the publication of the Post Operative Radiation Therapy in Endometrial Carcinoma (PORTEC1), and Gynecologic Oncology Group-Adjuvant Radiation for Intermediate Risk Endometrial Cancers (GOG99). METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using the NCI SEER database compared the use of RT pre and post publication of PORTEC1 (1996-99 v 2000-03) and GOG 99 (2000-03 v 2004-07). Criteria for intermediate (IR) and high-intermediate (HIR) risk categories as defined by PORTEC1 and GOG99 were applied. Chi-squared statistics and adjusted multivariable Poisson models were used. RESULTS: RT did not increase for HIR (RR 1.05, 95%CI 0.99, 1.11) or IR groups (RR 1.0, 95% CI 0.95, 1.05) following GOG99 publication, or for HIR (RR 1.01, 95% CI 0.86, 1.19) or IR groups (RR 0.88, 95% CI 0.77-1.00) following PORTEC1 publication. Radiation rates changed heterogeneously across the country without a discernible pattern of cause. Among radiated patients, brachytherapy use increased, whereas external beam use decreased after GOG99 publication. CONCLUSIONS: As the debate regarding the utility of adjuvant radiation in early stage endometrial cancer continues, we found that overall, clinicians had not adopted GOG99 or PORTEC1 results into their clinical practice in the years immediately after publication. However, we did identify significant variation in practice by geographic location. Given that barely half the women deemed highest risk for recurrence received radiation, these findings illustrate that clinical practice reflects the continued controversy surrounding adjuvant radiation in the treatment of endometrial cancer.

Comparative Effectiveness of Dual- Versus Mono-Sedative Therapy on Opioid Administration, Sedative Administration, and Sedation Level in Mechanically Ventilated, Critically Ill Children.

OBJECTIVE: We estimated the effect of early initiation of dual therapy vs monotherapy on drug administration and related outcomes in mechanically ventilated, critically ill children. METHODS: We used the electronic medical record at a single tertiary medical center to conduct an active comparator, new user cohort study. We included children <18 years of age who were exposed to a sedative or analgesic within 6 hours of intubation. We used stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting to account for confounding at baseline. We estimated the average effect of initial dual therapy vs monotherapy on outcomes including cumulative opioid, benzodiazepine, and dexmedetomidine dosing; sedation scores; time to double the opioid or benzodiazepine infusion rate; initiation of neuromuscular blockade within the first 7 days of follow-up; time to extubation; and 7-day all-cause in-hospital death. RESULTS: The cohort included 640 patients. Children receiving dual therapy received 0.03 mg/kg (95% CI, 0.02-0.04) more dexmedetomidine over the first 7 days after initiation of mechanical ventilation than did monotherapy patients. Dual therapy patients had similar sedation scores, time to double therapy, initiation of neuromuscular blockade, and time to extubation as monotherapy patients. Dual therapy patients had a lower incidence of death. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, initial dual therapy compared with monotherapy does not reduce overall drug administration during mechanical ventilation. The identified effect of dual therapy on mortality deserves further investigation.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma Surveillance among Individuals with Cirrhosis: Trends by Payer, Etiology, and Calendar Year, from a Statewide, Multi-Payer Dataset, 2010-2018.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is underutilized, with <25% of individuals with cirrhosis receiving surveillance exams as recommended. The epidemiology of cirrhosis and HCC in the United States has also shifted in recent years, but little is known about recent trends in surveillance utilization. We characterized patterns of HCC surveillance by payer, cirrhosis etiology, and calendar year in insured individuals with cirrhosis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals with cirrhosis using claims data from Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance plans in North Carolina. We included individuals ≥ 18 years with a first occurrence of an ICD-9/10 code for cirrhosis between January 1, 2010, and June 30, 2018. The outcome was HCC surveillance by abdominal ultrasound, CT, or MRI. We estimated 1- and 2-year cumulative incidences for HCC surveillance and assessed longitudinal adherence to surveillance by computing the proportion of time covered (PTC). RESULTS: Among 46,052 individuals, 71% were enrolled through Medicare, 15% through Medicaid, and 14% through private insurance. The overall 1-year cumulative incidence of HCC surveillance was 49% and the 2-year cumulative incidence was 55%. For those with an initial screen in the first 6 months of their cirrhosis diagnosis, the median 2-year PTC was 67% (Q1, 38%; Q3, 100%). CONCLUSIONS: HCC surveillance initiation after cirrhosis diagnosis remains low, though it has improved slightly over time, particularly among individuals with Medicaid. IMPACT: This study provides insight into recent trends in HCC surveillance and highlights areas to target for future interventions, particularly among patients with nonviral etiologies.