Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the mortality risks by fine strata of gestational age and birthweight among 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) from 2000 to 2017. DESIGN: Descriptive multi-country secondary data analysis. SETTING: Nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. POPULATION: Liveborn infants from 15 population-based cohorts. METHODS: Subnational, population-based studies with high-quality birth outcome data were invited to join the Vulnerable Newborn Measurement Collaboration. All studies included birthweight, gestational age measured by ultrasound or last menstrual period, infant sex and neonatal survival. We defined adequate birthweight as 2500-3999 g (reference category), macrosomia as ≥4000 g, moderate low as 1500-2499 g and very low birthweight as <1500 g. We analysed fine strata classifications of preterm, term and post-term: ≥42+0 , 39+0 -41+6 (reference category), 37+0 -38+6 , 34+0 -36+6 ,34+0 -36+6 ,32+0 -33+6 , 30+0 -31+6 , 28+0 -29+6 and less than 28 weeks. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median and interquartile ranges by study for neonatal mortality rates (NMR) and relative risks (RR). We also performed meta-analysis for the relative mortality risks with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by the fine categories, stratified by regional study setting (sub-Saharan Africa and Southern Asia) and study-level NMR (≤25 versus >25 neonatal deaths per 1000 live births). RESULTS: We found a dose-response relationship between lower gestational ages and birthweights with increasing neonatal mortality risks. The highest NMR and RR were among preterm babies born at <28 weeks (median NMR 359.2 per 1000 live births; RR 18.0, 95% CI 8.6-37.6) and very low birthweight (462.8 per 1000 live births; RR 43.4, 95% CI 29.5-63.9). We found no statistically significant neonatal mortality risk for macrosomia (RR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6-3.0) but a statistically significant risk for all preterm babies, post-term babies (RR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.5) and babies born at 370 -386 weeks (RR 1.2, 95% CI 1.0-1.4). There were no statistically significant differences by region or underlying neonatal mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In addition to tracking vulnerable newborn types, monitoring finer categories of birthweight and gestational age will allow for better understanding of the predictors, interventions and health outcomes for vulnerable newborns. It is imperative that all newborns from live births and stillbirths have an accurate recorded weight and gestational age to track maternal and neonatal health and optimise prevention and care of vulnerable newborns.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns: A descriptive analysis of subnational, population-based birth cohorts for 238 203 live births in low- and middle-income settings from 2000 to 2017.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). DESIGN: Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000. SETTING: Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. POPULATION: Live birth neonates. METHODS: We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification. RESULTS: There were 238 203 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.6, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0-2.9), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3-10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4-13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6-13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies. CONCLUSIONS: Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Intrauterine growth pattern in Butajira HDSS, Southern Ethiopia: BUNMAP pregnancy cohort.

BACKGROUND: Abnormal fetal growth pattern during pregnancy including excessive fetal size and intrauterine growth restrictions are the major determinants for perinatal outcomes and postnatal growth. Ultrasonography is a useful tool in monitoring fetal growth for appropriate care and interventions. However, there are few longitudinal studies using serial ultrasonography in low and middle-income countries. Moreover, the reference charts used for fetal growth monitoring in low-income countries comes from high income countries with distinct population features. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the intrauterine growth pattern of the fetus using serial ultrasonography. METHODS: We conducted a prospective community-based cohort study from March 2018 to December 2019. Pregnant women with gestational age of 24 weeks or below living in the Butajira HDSS were enrolled. We followed the pregnant women until delivery. Serial ultrasound measurements were taken, and fetal weight was estimated using the Hadlock algorithm based on biparietal diameter, head circumference, abdominal circumference, and femur length. The z-scores and percentiles of biometric measurements were calculated and compared to the INTERGROWTH-21st International Standards for Fetal Growth. RESULTS: We reviewed a total of 2055 ultrasound scans and 746 women who fulfill the inclusion criteria were involved". We found similar distribution patterns of biometric measurements and estimated fetal weight compared to the previous study done in Ethiopia, the WHO and INTERGROWTH-21st references. In our study, the 5th,50th and 95th percentiles of estimated fetal weight distribution have a similar pattern to the WHO and INTERGROWTH-21st charts. The 50th and 95th percentile had also a similar distribution pattern with the previous study conducted in Ethiopia. We found that 10% of the fetus were small for gestational age (below the 10th percentile) based on the Z-score of estimated fetal weight. CONCLUSION: Our study evaluated the fetal growth patterns in rural community of Ethiopia using serial ultrasound biometric measurements. We found similar IUG patterns to the WHO and INTERGROWTH-21st reference standards as well as the previous study conducted in Ethiopia.

Barriers and facilitators to the implementation of nutrition interventions at primary health care units of Ethiopia: A consolidated framework for implementation research.

Accumulating evidence clearly shows poor implementation of nutrition interventions, in Ethiopia and other African countries, with many missed opportunities in the first 1000 days of life. Even though there are high-impact interventions in this critical period, little is known about the barriers and facilitators influencing their implementation. This paper aims to explore barriers and facilitators for the implementation of nutrition services for small children with a focus on growth monitoring and promotion, iron-folic acid supplementation and nutrition counselling. We conducted a qualitative study in four districts of Ethiopia. The data collection and analysis were guided by the consolidated framework for implementation research (CFIR). A total of 42 key informant interviews were conducted with key stakeholders and service providers. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and coded using CIFR constructs. We found that from 39 constructs of CFIR, 14 constructs influenced the implementation of nutrition interventions. Major barriers included lack of functional anthropometric equipment and high caseload (complexity), poor staff commitment and motivation (organisational incentive and reward), closed health posts (patient need and resource), false reporting (culture), lack of priority for nutrition service (relative priority), poor knowledge among service providers (knowledge and belief about the intervention) and lack of active involvement and support from leaders (leadership engagement). Adaptability and tension for change were the facilitators for the implementation of nutrition interventions. Effective implementation of nutrition interventions at primary health care units requires several actions such as improving the healthcare providers' motivation, improving leadership engagement, and creating a strong system for monitoring, supportive supervision and accountability.

Unhealthy weight control behaviors among Ethiopian female adolescents.

BACKGROUND: Unhealthy weight control behaviors are a serious concern, impairing the quality of life in adolescents. Although recent epidemiological studies indicate a high level of disordered eating in developing countries, such data in Ethiopia are scarce. Thus, this study aimed to determine the extent of unhealthy weight control behaviors (i.e., purging and nonpurging) and corresponding associated factors among urban Ethiopian adolescents. METHOD: A cross-sectional study using self-administered questionnaires was applied to 690 randomly selected female high school adolescents in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia in 2017. Measures included unhealthy weight control behaviors, body mass index, subjective perception of body weight, appearance satisfaction, depressive symptoms, and socio-demographic factors. Logistic regression was applied for data analyses, that is, adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI). RESULTS: The level of unhealthy weight control behaviors (i.e., a score of at least once a week in the last 1 month) was 30.7% (N = 208). Specifically, the extent of purging and nonpurging weight control behaviors was 1.5% (N = 10) and 29.8% (N = 202), respectively. Factors that were significantly associated with unhealthy weight control behaviors were perception of being overweight [aOR = 3.01; 95%CI: 1.11-8.11], being overweight [aOR = 3.28; 95%CI: 1.54-7.01], severe depression [aOR = 4.09; 95%CI: 1.73-9.96], and high socio-economic status [aOR = 2.07; 95%CI: 1.30-2.80]. CONCLUSION: This study reveals a considerable level of unhealthy weight control behaviors among female adolescents in an urban setting in Ethiopia. Researchers and policy makers should focus their attention upon this emerging public health challenge and develop associated strategies.

Rapid LA-REIMS-based metabolic fingerprinting of serum discriminates aflatoxin-exposed from non-exposed pregnant women: a prospective cohort from the Butajira Nutrition, Mental Health, and Pregnancy (BUNMAP) Study in rural Ethiopia.

To date, the changes in maternal metabolic response associated with prenatal aflatoxin exposure remain largely unknown. This study investigated the effects of prenatal aflatoxin exposure on the maternal serum metabolome in rural Ethiopia. A total of 309 pregnant women were enrolled prospectively, and their serum aflatoxin concentrations were measured using targeted liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). Serum metabolic fingerprints were obtained using laser-assisted rapid evaporative ionization mass spectrometry (LA-REIMS), followed by combination of univariate and multivariate statistical modelling to evaluate changes in circulating metabolic features between aflatoxin-exposed and unexposed mothers and to select discriminatory metabolic features. The analysis revealed that 81.8% of women were exposed to aflatoxins, with a median concentration of 12.9 pg/mg albumin. The orthogonal partial least square discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) regression model demonstrated significant disparities in the serum metabolome when comparing Ethiopian pregnant women with low vs high aflatoxin exposure. Thirty-two differentially expressed metabolic features were identified, affecting aminoacyl-tRNA biosynthesis pathway. Several discriminatory metabolites have been identified, including glutamine, tryptophan, tyrosine, carnosine, and 1-methylnicotinamide. In conclusion, our findings indicate that aflatoxin exposure during pregnancy have shown disparities in the maternal serum metabolome, primarily affecting protein synthesis. Further research is needed to identify specific metabolite biomarkers and elucidate the underlying mechanisms.

Risk factors of anemia among preschool children in Ethiopia: a Bayesian geo-statistical model.

BACKGROUND: The etiology and risk factors of anemia are multifactorial and varies across context. Due to the geospatial clustering of anemia, identifying risk factors for anemia should account for the geographic variability. Failure to adjust for spatial dependence whilst identifying risk factors of anemia could give spurious association. We aimed to identify risk factors of anemia using a Bayesian geo-statistical model. METHODS: We analyzed the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) 2016 data. The sample was selected using a stratified, two- stage cluster sampling design. In this survey, 9268 children had undergone anemia testing. Hemoglobin level was measured using a HemoCue photometer and the results were recorded onsite. Based on the World Health Organization's cut-off points, a child was considered anaemic if their altitude adjusted haemoglobin (Hb) level was less than 11 g/dL. Risk factors for anemia were identified using a Bayesian geo-statistical model, which accounted for spatial dependency structure in the data. Posterior means and 95% credible interval (BCI) were used to report our findings. We used a statistically significant level at 0.05. RESULT: The 9267 children in our study were between 6 and 59 months old. Fifty two percent (52%) of children were males. Thirteen percent (13%) of children were from the highest wealth quintile whereas 23% from the lowest wealth quintile. Most of them lived in rural areas (90%). The overall prevalence of anemia among preschool children was 57% (95% CI: 54.4-59.4). We found that child stunting (OR = 1.26, 95% BCI (1.14-1.39), wasting (OR = 1.35, 95% BCI (1.15-1.57), maternal anemia (OR = 1.61, 95% BCI (1.44-1.79), mothers having two under five children (OR = 1.2, 95% BCI (1.08-1.33) were risk factors associated with anemia among preschool children. Children from wealthy households had lower risk of anemia (AOR = 0.73, 95% BCI (0.62-0.85). CONCLUSION: Using the Bayesian geospatial statistical modeling, we were able to account for spatial dependent structure in the data, which minimize spurious association. Childhood Malnutrition, maternal anemia, increased fertility, and poor wealth status were risk factors of anemia among preschool children in Ethiopia. The existing anaemia control programs such as IFA supplementation during pregnancy should be strengthened to halt intergenerational effect of anaemia. Furthermore, routine childhood anaemia screening and intervention program should be part of the Primary health care in Ethiopia.

Multiple mycotoxin exposure during pregnancy and risks of adverse birth outcomes: a prospective cohort study in rural Ethiopia.

INTRODUCTION: Mycotoxin exposure during pregnancy has been associated with adverse birth outcomes in low- and middle-income countries. The evidence, however, is inconsistent and mainly limited to the assessment of a single mycotoxin. We assessed biomarkers of exposure to multiple mycotoxins during pregnancy and their associations with adverse birth outcomes in rural Ethiopia. METHODS: We analyzed data from 579 pregnant women between 8 and 24 weeks of completed gestation enrolled in a prospective cohort study. Serum mycotoxin concentrations were determined using liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. Multivariable linear probability models, adjusted for potential confounding factors and multiple comparisons, were fitted to assess the associations between mycotoxin exposure and small for gestational age and preterm birth. We applied principal component analysis to reduce the dimensionality of biomarker data from several taxonomic mycotoxin groups. RESULTS: All pregnant women were co-exposed to at least five mycotoxins, and one pregnant woman was co-exposed to 27 mycotoxins. Fumonisins (FB), i.e., FB2, FB3, FB1, and tenuazonic acid were the most frequently identified mycotoxins in 98.8, 95.3, 93.3, and 81.4% of the samples respectively. Deoxynivalenol was detected in 38.7%, nivalenol in 50.1%, ochratoxin α in 67.9%, and zearalenone in 50.9% of the serum samples. After adjustment, we found no statistically significant (all P ≥ 0.05) associations between mycotoxin exposures and birth outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Despite our study providing no evidence for relationships between mycotoxin biomarkers and adverse birth outcomes, our findings do indicate an extensive presence of multiple mycotoxin exposure among pregnant women. Public health policies and nutrition-sensitive interventions must ensure exposure to mycotoxins is reduced in rural Ethiopia.

Chronic aflatoxin exposure during pregnancy is associated with lower fetal growth trajectories: a prospective cohort from the Butajira Nutrition, Mental Health, and Pregnancy (BUNMAP) Study in rural Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Aflatoxins are toxic secondary metabolites produced by Aspergillus fungi, which are ubiquitously present in the food supplies of low- and middle-income countries. Studies of maternal aflatoxin exposure and fetal outcomes are mainly focused on size at birth and the effect on intrauterine fetal growth has not been assessed. OBJECTIVES: In the present study, we examined the association between chronic aflatoxin exposure during pregnancy and fetal growth trajectories in a rural setting in Ethiopia. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, we enrolled 492 pregnant females, with a singleton pregnancy and before 28 wk of gestation. Serum aflatoxin B1-lysine concentration was measured using LC-tandem MS. Three rounds of ultrasound measurements were conducted to estimate fetal weight at mean ± SD gestational age weeks of 19.1 ± 3.71, 28.5 ± 3.51, and 34.5 ± 2.44. Estimated fetal weight was expressed in centiles using the International Fetal and Newborn Growth Consortium for the 21st Century (INTERGROWTH-21st) reference. We fitted a multivariable linear mixed-effects model to estimate the rate of fetal growth between aflatoxin-exposed (i.e., aflatoxin B1-lysine concentration above or equal to the limit of detection) and unexposed mothers in the study. RESULTS: Mothers had a mean ± SD age of 26.0 ± 4.58 y. The median (25th, 75th percentile) serum aflatoxin B1-lysine concentration was 12.6 (0.93, 96.9) pg/mg albumin, and aflatoxin exposure was observed in 86.6% of maternal blood samples. Eighty-five percent of the females enrolled provided at least 2 ultrasound measurements for analysis. On average, the aflatoxin-exposed group had a significantly lower change over time in fetal weight-for-gestational-age centile than the unexposed group (ß = -0.92; 95% CI: -1.77, -0.06 centiles/week; P = 0.037). CONCLUSIONS: Chronic maternal aflatoxin exposure is associated with lower fetal growth over time. Our findings emphasize the importance of nutrition-sensitive strategies to mitigate dietary aflatoxin exposure and adopting food safety measures in low-income settings, in particular during the fetal period of development.

Geospatial inequality of anaemia among children in Ethiopia.

Anaemia remains a severe public health problem among children in Ethiopia and targeted approaches, based on the distribution and specific risk factors for that setting are needed to efficiently target health interventions. An analysis was performed using Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2016 data. Blood specimens for anaemia testing were collected from 9268 children aged 6-59 months. A child was considered as anaemic if the bloodhaemoglobin count was less than 11.0 g/dL. We applied Kulldorf's spatial scan statistics and used SaTScanTM to identify locations and estimate cluster sizes. In addition, we ran the local indicator of spatial association and the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to detect and locate hotspots and multilevel multivariable analysis to identify risk factors for anaemia clustering. More than half of children aged 6-59 months (57%) were found to be anaemic in Ethiopia. We found significant geospatial inequality of anaemia among children and identified clusters (hotspots) in the eastern part of Ethiopia. The odds of anaemia among children found within the identified cluster was 1.5 times higher than children found outside the cluster. Women anaemia, stunting and high fertility were associated with anaemia clustering.

Caregivers' feeding practices in Ethiopia: association with caregiver and child characteristics.

Feeding is a source of interaction and communication. It affects children's physical and psychological/emotional development. The present study aims to examine the association between caregiver and child characteristics and caregivers' feeding practices among preschools in Addis Ababa. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 542 caregivers of children aged between 3 and 6 years old in selected preschools. We used the Child Feeding Questionnaire (CFQ) to measure caregivers' feeding practices. Multiple linear regression was used for analysis. Caregivers who had higher levels of perceived feeding responsibility (ß 0⋅20, P < 0⋅001), who were more concerned about their child being overweight (ß 0⋅11, P < 0⋅001) and who had more depressive symptoms (ß 0⋅23, P 0⋅05) were associated with food restriction practice. Caregivers who were less concerned about their child being overweight (ß -0⋅10, P < 0⋅001) and who had higher levels of perceived feeding responsibility (ß 0⋅25, P < 0⋅001) were associated with pressure to eat practice. Caregivers who had higher education (ß 0⋅29, P < 0⋅05), who had higher levels of perceived feeding responsibility (ß 0⋅47, P < 0⋅001), who were more concerned about their child being overweight (ß 0⋅15, P < 0⋅001) and who were less concerned about their child underweight (ß -0⋅06, P < 0⋅05) were associated with monitoring feeding practice. In addition, as the children have gotten older (ß 0⋅08, P < 0⋅05), there is increased use of monitoring feeding practice. This study is one of few studies that show the association between caregiver and child characteristics and feeding practices in developing countries such as Ethiopia. It is essential to include responsive feeding components in national nutritional programmes to improve preschool children's nutritional status in Ethiopia.

Trends and causes of adult mortality from 2007 to 2017 using verbal autopsy method, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

OBJECTIVES: We aim to analyse the trends and causes of mortality among adults in Addis Ababa. SETTING: This analysis was conducted using verbal autopsy data from the Addis Ababa Mortality Surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: All deceased adults aged 15 years and above between 2007-2012 and 2015-2017 were included in the analysis. OUTCOME MEASURES: We collected verbal autopsy and conducted physician review to ascertain cause of death. RESULT: A total of 7911 data were included in this analysis. Non-communicable disease (NCD) accounted for 62.8% of adult mortality. Mortality from communicable diseases, maternal conditions and nutritional deficiencies followed this by accounting for 30.3% of total mortality. Injury accounted for 6.8% of total mortality. We have observed a significant decline in mortality attributed to group one cause of death (43.25% in 2007 to 12.34% in 2017, p<0.001). However, we observed a significant increase in mortality attributed to group II cause of death (from 49.95% in 2007 to 81.17% in 2017, p<0.001). The top five leading cause of death in 2017 were cerebrovascular disease (12.8%), diabetes mellitus (8.1%), chronic liver disease (6.3%), hypertension (5.7%), ischaemic heart disease (5.7%) and other specified neoplasm (5.2%). CONCLUSION: We documented an epidemiological shift in cause of mortality from communicable diseases to NCD over 10 years. There is a great progress in reducing mortality due to communicable diseases over the past years. However, the burden of NCDs call for actions for improving access to quality health service, improved case detection and community education to increase awareness. Integrating NCD intervention in to a well-established and successful programme targeting communicable diseases in the country might be beneficial for improving provision of comprehensive healthcare.

Inadequacy of nutrient intake among adolescent girls in south central Ethiopia.

Adolescent undernutrition is a major public health problem in Ethiopia. Inadequate dietary intake of nutrients is the major determinants of undernutrition. However, the adequacy of dietary intake among adolescents was not sufficiently explored. The present study aims to estimate the inadequacy of nutrient intake among adolescent girls in south central Ethiopia. A community-based cross-sectional study was conducted. We assess food and nutrient intake using repeated multiple-pass 24-h dietary recall. The study was conducted in Damot Gale district, Woliyta zone, Southern Ethiopia. Data were collected from 288 female adolescents. The majority of adolescent girls consumed cereals (96⋅9 %) and roots/tubers (75⋅3 %). However, only less than 1 % of them consumed flesh food. The mean energy, carbohydrate, protein and dietary fibre intake of the adolescent girls per day was 1452⋅7 ± 356⋅3 kcal, 305⋅6 ± 72⋅4 g, 35⋅7 ± 13⋅3 g and 18⋅6 ± 8⋅4 g, respectively. The median fat intake was 13⋅3 g (IQR 8⋅8, 19⋅8). The contribution of carbohydrate, protein and fat for the total energy was 80, 10 and 8 %, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake of protein was 60⋅9 %. The prevalence of inadequate intake of iron for early adolescents and late adolescents was 82 and 53 %, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake of folate was 83⋅9 % and zinc was 58 %. The prevalence of inadequate intake was greater than 90 % for vitamin B12, vitamin C and calcium. The present study found an alarmingly high prevalence of inadequate intake of some nutrients among adolescent girls of Damot Gale district.

Diagnostic performance of midupper arm circumference for detecting severe wasting among infants aged 1-6 months in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Midupper arm circumference (MUAC) is used as an independent diagnostic tool to detect wasting in children aged 6-59 mo. However, little is known about the diagnostic performance of MUAC for detecting wasting among infants aged 1-6 mo. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of MUAC in detecting severe wasting in infants aged 1-6 mo. METHODS: We conducted a facility-based cross-sectional study among 467 hospitalized infants aged 1-6 mo in Ethiopia. Severe wasting was defined as having a weight for length z score (WLZ) below the cutoff value of -3 SDs from the median as per the WHO 2006 child growth standards. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis along with the calibration test was used to test the discriminatory performance of MUAC. Furthermore, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the proposed optimal cutoffs. RESULTS: The median age, MUAC, and WLZ were 100 d (IQR: 69-145 d), 119 mm (IQR: 103-130 mm), and -1.27 (IQR: -2.66 to 0.34), respectively. The prevalence of severe and moderate wasting was n = 101 (21.6%) and n = 61 (13.0%), respectively. The MUAC area under the ROC curve accuracy level in identifying severe wasting was 0.86 (95% CI: 0.82, 0.89). The optimal MUAC cutoff of ≤112 mm yielded the highest Youden index of 0.61, with a sensitivity of 85.1% (95% CI: 76.7%, 91.4%) and a specificity of 76.0% (95% CI: 71.2%, 80.2%). CONCLUSIONS: A MUAC cutoff of ≤112 mm performed well in detecting severe wasting among infants aged 1-6 mo. Further research is needed to evaluate the performance of MUAC for detecting wasting at community level and for predicting mortality among infants aged <6 mo.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score to Predict Low Birthweight Using Characteristics of the Mother: Analysis from BUNMAP Cohort in Ethiopia.

At least one ultrasound is recommended to predict fetal growth restriction and low birthweight earlier in pregnancy. However, in low-income countries, imaging equipment and trained manpower are scarce. Hence, we developed and validated a model and risk score to predict low birthweight using maternal characteristics during pregnancy, for use in resource limited settings. We developed the model using a prospective cohort of 379 pregnant women in South Ethiopia. A stepwise multivariable analysis was done to develop the prediction model. To improve the clinical utility, we developed a simplified risk score to classify pregnant women at high- or low-risk of low birthweight. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration plot. All accuracy measures were internally validated using the bootstrapping technique. We evaluated the clinical impact of the model using a decision curve analysis across various threshold probabilities. Age at pregnancy, underweight, anemia, height, gravidity, and presence of comorbidity remained in the final multivariable prediction model. The AUC of the model was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.78 to 0.88). The decision curve analysis indicated the model provides a higher net benefit across ranges of threshold probabilities. In general, this study showed the possibility of predicting low birthweight using maternal characteristics during pregnancy. The model could help to identify pregnant women at higher risk of having a low birthweight baby. This feasible prediction model would offer an opportunity to reduce obstetric-related complications, thus improving the overall maternal and child healthcare in low- and middle-income countries.

Drivers of stunting reduction in Ethiopia: a country case study.

BACKGROUND: Chronic undernutrition in children continues to be a global public health concern. Ethiopia has documented a significant decline in the prevalence of childhood stunting, a measure of chronic undernutrition, over the last 20 y. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this research was to conduct a systematic assessment of the determinants that have driven child stunting reduction in Ethiopia from 2000 to 2016, focused on the national, community, household, and individual level. METHODS: This study employed both quantitative and qualitative methods. Specifically, a systematic literature review, retrospective quantitative data analysis using Demographic and Health Surveys from 2000-2016, qualitative data collection and analysis, and analyses of key nutrition-specific and -sensitive policies and programs were undertaken. RESULTS: National stunting prevalence improved from 51% in 2000 to 32% in 2016. Regional variations exist, as do pro-rich, pro-urban, and pro-educated inequalities. Child height-for-age z score (HAZ) decomposition explained >100% of predicted change in mean HAZ between 2000 and 2016, with key factors including increases in total consumable crop yield (32% of change), increased number of health workers (28%), reduction in open defecation (13%), parental education (10%), maternal nutrition (5%), economic improvement (4%), and reduced diarrhea incidence (4%). Policies and programs that were key to stunting decline focused on promoting rural agriculture to improve food security; decentralization of the health system, incorporating health extension workers to improve rural access to health services and reduce open defecation; multisectoral poverty reduction strategies; and a commitment to improving girls' education. Interviews with national and regional stakeholders and mothers in communities presented improvements in health service access, women and girls' education, improved agricultural production, and improved sanitation and child care practices as drivers of stunting reduction. CONCLUSIONS: Ethiopia's stunting decline was driven by both nutrition-specific and -sensitive sectors, with particular focus on the agriculture sector, health care access, sanitation, and education.