Flexible Bayesian Ensemble Machine Learning Framework for Predicting Local Ozone Concentrations.

3D-grid-based chemical transport models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system, have been widely used for predicting concentrations of ambient air pollutants. However, typical horizontal resolutions of nationwide CMAQ simulations (12 × 12 km2) cannot capture local-scale gradients for accurately assessing human exposures and environmental justice disparities. In this study, a Bayesian ensemble machine learning (BEML) framework, which integrates 13 learning algorithms, was developed for downscaling CMAQ estimates of ozone daily maximum 8 h averages to the census tract level, across the contiguous US, and was demonstrated for 2011. Three-stage hyperparameter tuning and targeted validations were designed to ensure the ensemble model's ability to interpolate, extrapolate, and capture concentration peaks. The Shapley value metric from coalitional game theory was applied to interpret the drivers of subgrid gradients. The flexibility (transferability) of the 2011-trained BEML model was further tested by evaluating its ability to estimate fine-scale concentrations for other years (2012-2017) without retraining. To demonstrate the feasibility of using the BEML approach to strictly "data-limited" situations, the model was applied to downscale CMAQ outputs for a future-year scenario-based simulation that considers effects of variations in meteorology associated with climate change.

A tiered framework for risk-relevant characterization and ranking of chemical exposures: applications to the National Children's Study (NCS).

A challenge for large-scale environmental health investigations such as the National Children's Study (NCS), is characterizing exposures to multiple, co-occurring chemical agents with varying spatiotemporal concentrations and consequences modulated by biochemical, physiological, behavioral, socioeconomic, and environmental factors. Such investigations can benefit from systematic retrieval, analysis, and integration of diverse extant information on both contaminant patterns and exposure-relevant factors. This requires development, evaluation, and deployment of informatics methods that support flexible access and analysis of multiattribute data across multiple spatiotemporal scales. A new "Tiered Exposure Ranking" (TiER) framework, developed to support various aspects of risk-relevant exposure characterization, is described here, with examples demonstrating its application to the NCS. TiER utilizes advances in informatics computational methods, extant database content and availability, and integrative environmental/exposure/biological modeling to support both "discovery-driven" and "hypothesis-driven" analyses. "Tier 1" applications focus on "exposomic" pattern recognition for extracting information from multidimensional data sets, whereas second and higher tier applications utilize mechanistic models to develop risk-relevant exposure metrics for populations and individuals. In this article, "tier 1" applications of TiER explore identification of potentially causative associations among risk factors, for prioritizing further studies, by considering publicly available demographic/socioeconomic, behavioral, and environmental data in relation to two health endpoints (preterm birth and low birth weight). A "tier 2" application develops estimates of pollutant mixture inhalation exposure indices for NCS counties, formulated to support risk characterization for these endpoints. Applications of TiER demonstrate the feasibility of developing risk-relevant exposure characterizations for pollutants using extant environmental and demographic/socioeconomic data.

Climate change effect on Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen seasons in the United States.

Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994-2000 and 2001-2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1-2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6%-248%. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.

A semi-mechanistic integrated toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK/TD) model for arsenic(III) in hepatocytes.

BACKGROUND: A systems engineering approach is presented for describing the kinetics and dynamics that are elicited upon arsenic exposure of human hepatocytes. The mathematical model proposed here tracks the cellular reaction network of inorganic and organic arsenic compounds present in the hepatocyte and analyzes the production of toxicologically potent by-products and the signaling they induce in hepatocytes. METHODS AND RESULTS: The present modeling effort integrates for the first time a cellular-level semi-mechanistic toxicokinetic (TK) model of arsenic in human hepatocytes with a cellular-level toxicodynamic (TD) model describing the arsenic-induced reactive oxygen species (ROS) burst, the antioxidant response, and the oxidative DNA damage repair process. The antioxidant response mechanism is described based on the Keap1-independent Nuclear Factor-erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) signaling cascade and accounts for the upregulation of detoxifying enzymes. The ROS-induced DNA damage is simulated by coupling the TK/TD formulation with a model describing the multistep pathway of oxidative DNA repair. The predictions of the model are assessed against experimental data of arsenite-induced genotoxic damage to human hepatocytes; thereby capturing in silico the mode of the experimental dose-response curve. CONCLUSIONS: The integrated cellular-level TK/TD model presented here provides significant insight into the underlying regulatory mechanism of Nrf2-regulated antioxidant response due to arsenic exposure. While computational simulations are in a fair good agreement with relevant experimental data, further analysis of the system unravels the role of a dynamic interplay among the feedback loops of the system in controlling the ROS upregulation and DNA damage response. This TK/TD framework that uses arsenic as an example can be further extended to other toxic or pharmaceutical agents.

Socioexposomics of COVID-19 across New Jersey: a comparison of geostatistical and machine learning approaches.

BACKGROUND: Disparities in adverse COVID-19 health outcomes have been associated with multiple social and environmental stressors. However, research is needed to evaluate the consistency and efficiency of methods for studying these associations at local scales. OBJECTIVE: To assess socioexposomic associations with COVID-19 outcomes across New Jersey and evaluate consistency of findings from multiple modeling approaches. METHODS: We retrieved data for COVID-19 cases and deaths for the 565 municipalities of New Jersey up to the end of the first phase of the pandemic, and calculated mortality rates with and without long-term-care (LTC) facility deaths. We considered 84 spatially heterogeneous environmental, demographic and socioeconomic factors from publicly available databases, including air pollution, proximity to industrial sites/facilities, transportation-related noise, occupation and commuting, neighborhood and housing characteristics, age structure, racial/ethnic composition, poverty, etc. Six geostatistical models (Poisson/Negative-Binomial regression, Poison/Negative-Binomial mixed effect model, Poisson/Negative-Binomial Bersag-York-Mollie spatial model) and two Machine Learning (ML) methods (Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting) were implemented to assess association patterns. The Shapley effects plot was established for explainable ML and change of support validation was introduced to compare performances of different approaches. RESULTS: We found robust positive associations of COVID-19 mortality with historic exposures to NO2, population density, percentage of minority and below high school education, and other social and environmental factors. Exclusion of LTC deaths does not significantly affect correlations for most factors but findings can be substantially influenced by model structures and assumptions. The best performing geostatistical models involved flexible structures representing data variations. ML methods captured association patterns consistent with the best performing geostatistical models, and furthermore detected consistent nonlinear associations not captured by geostatistical models. SIGNIFICANCE: The findings of this work improve the understanding of how social and environmental disparities impacted COVID-19 outcomes across New Jersey.

Modeling past and future spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen across the contiguous United States.

Exposures to airborne allergenic pollen have been increasing under the influence of changing climate. A modeling system incorporating pollen emissions and atmospheric transport and fate processes has been developed and applied to simulate spatiotemporal distributions of two major aeroallergens, oak and ragweed pollens, across the contiguous United States (CONUS) for both historical (year 2004) and future (year 2047) conditions. The transport and fate of pollen presented here is simulated using our adapted version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Model performance was evaluated using observed pollen counts at monitor stations across the CONUS for 2004. Our analysis shows that there is encouraging consistency between observed seasonal mean concentrations and corresponding simulated seasonal mean concentrations (oak: Pearson = 0.35, ragweed: Pearson = 0.40), and that the model was able to capture the statistical patterns of observed pollen concentration distributions in 2004 for most of the pollen monitoring stations. Simulation of pollen levels for a future year (2047) considered conditions corresponding to the RCP8.5 scenario. Modeling results show substantial regional variability both in the magnitude and directionality of changes in pollen metrics. Ragweed pollen season is estimated to start earlier and last longer for all nine climate regions of the CONUS, with increasing average pollen concentrations in most regions. The timing and magnitude of oak pollen season vary across the nine climate regions, with the largest increases in pollen concentrations expected in the Northeast region.

Impact of biogenic emission uncertainties on the simulated response of ozone and fine particulate matter to anthropogenic emission reductions.

The role of emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitric oxide from biogenic sources is becoming increasingly important in regulatory air quality modeling as levels of anthropogenic emissions continue to decrease and stricter health-based air quality standards are being adopted. However, considerable uncertainties still exist in the current estimation methodologies for biogenic emissions. The impact of these uncertainties on ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) levels for the eastern United States was studied, focusing on biogenic emissions estimates from two commonly used biogenic emission models, the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN) and the Biogenic Emissions Inventory System (BEIS). Photochemical grid modeling simulations were performed for two scenarios: one reflecting present day conditions and the other reflecting a hypothetical future year with reductions in emissions of anthropogenic oxides of nitrogen (NOx). For ozone, the use of MEGAN emissions resulted in a higher ozone response to hypothetical anthropogenic NOx emission reductions compared with BEIS. Applying the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency guidance on regulatory air quality modeling in conjunction with typical maximum ozone concentrations, the differences in estimated future year ozone design values (DVF) stemming from differences in biogenic emissions estimates were on the order of 4 parts per billion (ppb), corresponding to approximately 5% of the daily maximum 8-hr ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 75 ppb. For PM2.5, the differences were 0.1-0.25 microg/m3 in the summer total organic mass component of DVFs, corresponding to approximately 1-2% of the value of the annual PM2.5 NAAQS of 15 microg/m3. Spatial variations in the ozone and PM2.5 differences also reveal that the impacts of different biogenic emission estimates on ozone and PM2.5 levels are dependent on ambient levels of anthropogenic emissions.

Modeling Effects of Spatial Heterogeneities and Layered Exposure Interventions on the Spread of COVID-19 across New Jersey.

COVID-19 created an unprecedented global public health crisis during 2020-2021. The severity of the fast-spreading infection, combined with uncertainties regarding the physical and biological processes affecting transmission of SARS-CoV-2, posed enormous challenges to healthcare systems. Pandemic dynamics exhibited complex spatial heterogeneities across multiple scales, as local demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral and environmental factors were modulating population exposures and susceptibilities. Before effective pharmacological interventions became available, controlling exposures to SARS-CoV-2 was the only public health option for mitigating the disease; therefore, models quantifying the impacts of heterogeneities and alternative exposure interventions on COVID-19 outcomes became essential tools informing policy development. This study used a stochastic SEIR framework, modeling each of the 21 New Jersey counties, to capture important heterogeneities of COVID-19 outcomes across the State. The models were calibrated using confirmed daily deaths and SQMC optimization and subsequently applied in predictive and exploratory modes. The predictions achieved good agreement between modeled and reported death data; counterfactual analysis was performed to assess the effectiveness of layered interventions on reducing exposures to SARS-CoV-2 and thereby fatality of COVID-19. The modeling analysis of the reduction in exposures to SARS-CoV-2 achieved through concurrent social distancing and face-mask wearing estimated that 357 [IQR (290, 429)] deaths per 100,000 people were averted.

Biomonitoring: A tool to assess PFNA body burdens and evaluate the effectiveness of drinking water intervention for communities in New Jersey.

Elevated perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) levels, one of many manmade per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), were detected in public water systems/private wells in New Jersey communities. Interventions to end exposure through drinking water were carried out from 2014 to 2016. To evaluate the effectiveness of interventions, a community biomonitoring study was conducted for the communities between 2017 and 2020. A convenience sampling design was used with 120 participants in Year 1 between ages of 20-74 who consumed PFNA-contaminated water. Three blood samples, one year apart, were drawn from each participant and completed for 99 participants. Separated serum samples were measured for 12 PFAS including PFNA. Questionnaires were administered to collect information on demographics and potential sources. Drinking water and house dust collected at the first visit were analyzed for 14 PFAS including PFNA. The PFNA sera levels (Year 1) found 84 out of 120 (70%) participants were higher than the 95th percentile of a nationally representative sample of US adults (NHANES2015-16). Current drinking water and house dust were not significant contributing sources for the study participants. On average, PFNA sera levels were 12 ± 16% (Year 2) and 27 ± 16% (Year 3) lower than the level measured in Year 1 (p < 0.01). The PFNA half-life was estimated around 3.52 years, using a mixed model from 68 high-exposed participants (>95th percentile of NHANES2015-16) with controlling for physiological covariates. The decline in adult serum PFNA levels seen in the years following a community drinking water intervention suggests the intervention effectively reduced PFNA exposure via drinking water.

A generalized physiologically-based toxicokinetic modeling system for chemical mixtures containing metals.

BACKGROUND: Humans are routinely and concurrently exposed to multiple toxic chemicals, including various metals and organics, often at levels that can cause adverse and potentially synergistic effects. However, toxicokinetic modeling studies of exposures to these chemicals are typically performed on a single chemical basis. Furthermore, the attributes of available models for individual chemicals are commonly estimated specifically for the compound studied. As a result, the available models usually have parameters and even structures that are not consistent or compatible across the range of chemicals of concern. This fact precludes the systematic consideration of synergistic effects, and may also lead to inconsistencies in calculations of co-occurring exposures and corresponding risks. There is a need, therefore, for a consistent modeling framework that would allow the systematic study of cumulative risks from complex mixtures of contaminants. METHODS: A Generalized Toxicokinetic Modeling system for Mixtures (GTMM) was developed and evaluated with case studies. The GTMM is physiologically-based and uses a consistent, chemical-independent physiological description for integrating widely varying toxicokinetic models. It is modular and can be directly "mapped" to individual toxicokinetic models, while maintaining physiological consistency across different chemicals. Interaction effects of complex mixtures can be directly incorporated into the GTMM. CONCLUSIONS: The application of GTMM to different individual metals and metal compounds showed that it explains available observational data as well as replicates the results from models that have been optimized for individual chemicals. The GTMM also made it feasible to model toxicokinetics of complex, interacting mixtures of multiple metals and nonmetals in humans, based on available literature information. The GTMM provides a central component in the development of a "source-to-dose-to-effect" framework for modeling population health risks from environmental contaminants. As new data become available on interactions of multiple chemicals, the GTMM can be iteratively parameterized to improve mechanistic understanding of human health risks from exposures to complex mixtures of chemicals.

Comparison of Machine Learning and Land Use Regression for fine scale spatiotemporal estimation of ambient air pollution: Modeling ozone concentrations across the contiguous United States.

BACKGROUND: Spatial linear Land-Use Regression (LUR) is commonly used for long-term modeling of air pollution in support of exposure and epidemiological assessments. Machine Learning (ML) methods in conjunction with spatiotemporal modeling can provide more flexible exposure-relevant metrics and have been studied using different model structures. There is however a lack of comparisons of methods available within these two modeling frameworks, that can guide model/algorithm selection in air quality epidemiology. OBJECTIVE: The present study compares thirteen algorithms for spatial/spatiotemporal modeling applied for daily maxima of 8-hour running averages of ambient ozone concentrations at spatial resolutions corresponding to census tracts, to support estimation of annual ozone design values across the contiguous US. These algorithms were selected from nine representative categories and trained using predictors that included chemistry-transport model predictions, meteorological factors, land use and land cover, and stationary and mobile emissions. METHODS: To obtain the best predictive performance, model structures were optimized through a repeated coarse/fine grid search with expert knowledge. Six target-oriented validation strategies were used to prevent overfitting and avoid over-optimistic model evaluation results. In order to take full advantage of the power of different algorithms, we introduced tuning sample weights in spatiotemporal modeling to ensure predictive accuracy of peak concentrations, that is crucial for exposure assessments. In spatial modeling, four interpretation and visualization tools were introduced to explain predictions from different algorithms. RESULTS: Nonlinear ML methods achieved higher prediction accuracy than linear LUR, and the improvements were more significant for spatiotemporal modeling (nearly 10%-40% decrease of predicted RMSE). By tuning the sample weights, spatiotemporal models can predict concentrations used to calculate ozone design values that are comparable or even better than spatial models (nearly 30% decrease of cross-validated RMSE). We visualized the underlying nonlinear relationships, heterogeneous associations and complex interactions from the two best performing ML algorithms, i.e., Random Forest and Extreme Gradient Boosting, and found that the complex patterns were relatively less significant with respect to model accuracy for spatial modeling. CONCLUSION: Machine Learning can provide estimates that are actually more interpretable and practical than linear regression to improve accuracy in modeling human exposures. A careful design of hyperparameter tuning and flexible data splitting and validations is crucial to obtain reliable and stable results. Desirable/successful nonlinear models are expected to capture similar nonlinear patterns and interactions using different ML algorithms.

Differential gene expression profiling of mouse skin after sulfur mustard exposure: Extended time response and inhibitor effect.

Sulfur mustard (HD, SM), is a chemical warfare agent that within hours causes extensive blistering at the dermal-epidermal junction of skin. To better understand the progression of SM-induced blistering, gene expression profiling for mouse skin was performed after a single high dose of SM exposure. Punch biopsies of mouse ears were collected at both early and late time periods following SM exposure (previous studies only considered early time periods). The biopsies were examined for pathological disturbances and the samples further assayed for gene expression profiling using the Affymetrix microarray analysis system. Principal component analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis of the differently expressed genes, performed with ArrayTrack showed clear separation of the various groups. Pathway analysis employing the KEGG library and Ingenuity Pathway Analysis (IPA) indicated that cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, cell adhesion molecules (CAMs), and hematopoietic cell lineage are common pathways affected at different time points. Gene ontology analysis identified the most significantly altered biological processes as the immune response, inflammatory response, and chemotaxis; these findings are consistent with other reported results for shorter time periods. Selected genes were chosen for RT-PCR verification and showed correlations in the general trends for the microarrays. Interleukin 1 beta was checked for biological analysis to confirm the presence of protein correlated to the corresponding microarray data. The impact of a matrix metalloproteinase inhibitor, MMP-2/MMP-9 inhibitor I, against SM exposure was assessed. These results can help in understanding the molecular mechanism of SM-induced blistering, as well as to test the efficacy of different inhibitors.

Modeling of personal exposures to ambient air toxics in Camden, New Jersey: an evaluation study.

This study presents the Individual Based Exposure Modeling (IBEM) application of MENTOR (Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk studies) in a hot spot area, where there are concentrated local sources on the scale of tens to hundreds of meters, and an urban reference area in Camden, NJ, to characterize the ambient concentrations and personal exposures to benzene and toluene from local ambient sources. The emission-based ambient concentrations in the two neighborhoods were first estimated through atmospheric dispersion modeling. Subsequently, the calculated and measured ambient concentrations of benzene and toluene were separately combined with the time-activity diaries completed by the subjects as inputs to MENTOR/IBEM for estimating personal exposures resulting from ambient sources. The modeling results were then compared with the actual personal measurements collected from over 100 individuals in the field study to identify the gaps in modeling personal exposures in a hot spot. The modeled ambient concentrations of benzene and toluene were generally in agreement with the neighborhood measurements within a factor of 2, but were underestimated at the high-end percentiles. The major local contributors to the benzene ambient levels are from mobile sources, whereas mobile and stationary (point and area) sources contribute to the toluene ambient levels in the study area. This finding can be used as guidance for developing better air toxic emission inventories for characterizing, through modeling, the ambient concentrations of air toxics in the study area. The estimated percentage contributions of personal exposures from ambient sources were generally higher in the hot spot area than the urban reference area in Camden, NJ, for benzene and toluene. This finding demonstrates the hot spot characteristics of stronger local ambient source impacts on personal exposures. Non-ambient sources were also found as significant contributors to personal exposures to benzene and toluene for the population studied.

Per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) blood levels after contamination of a community water supply and comparison with 2013-2014 NHANES.

INTRODUCTION: Per and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), including perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), were detected in the community water supply of Paulsboro New Jersey in 2009. METHODS: A cross-sectional study enrolled 192 claimants from a class-action lawsuit, not affiliated with this study, who had been awarded a blood test for 13 PFAS. Study participants provided their blood test results and completed a survey about demographics; 105 participants also completed a health survey. Geometric means, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles of exposure of PFNA blood serum concentrations were compared to that of the 2013-2014 NHANES, adjusted for reporting level. Associations between PFNA, PFOA, PFOS, and PFHxS and self-reported health outcomes were assessed using logistic regression. RESULTS: PFNA serum levels were 285% higher in Paulsboro compared with U.S. residents. PFNA serum levels were higher among older compared with younger, and male compared to female, Paulsboro residents. After adjustment for potential confounding, there was a significant association between increased serum PFNA levels and self-reported high cholesterol (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.29). DISCUSSION/CONCLUSION: Further investigation into possible health effects of PFAS exposure in Paulsboro and other community settings is warranted. Since exposure has ceased, toxicokinetics of PFAS elimination should be explored.

Development of a semi-mechanistic allergenic pollen emission model.

Modeling pollen emission processes is crucial for studying the spatiotemporal distributions of airborne allergenic pollen. A semi-mechanistic emission model was developed based on mass balance of pollen grain fluxes in the surroundings of allergenic plants. The emission model considers direct emission and resuspension and accounts for influences of temperature, wind velocity, and relative humidity. Modules of this emission model have been developed and parameterized with multiple years of pollen count observations to provide pollen season onset and duration, hourly flowering likelihood, and vegetation coverage for oak and ragweed, as two examples. The simulated spatiotemporal pattern of pollen emissions generally follows the corresponding pattern of area coverage of allergenic plants and diurnal pattern of hourly flowering likelihood. It is found that oak pollen emissions start from the Southern part of the Contiguous United States (CONUS) in March and then shift gradually toward the Northern CONUS, with a maximum emission flux of 5.8 × 106 pollen/(m2 h). On the other hand, ragweed pollen emissions start from the Northern CONUS in August and then shift gradually toward the Southern CONUS. The mean ragweed emission flux during August to September can increase up to 2.4 × 106 pollen/(m2 h). This emission model is robust with respect to the input parameters for oak and ragweed. Qualitative evaluations of the model performance indicated that the simulated pollen emission is strongly correlated with the plant coverages and observed pollen counts. This model could also be applied to other pollen species given the relevant parameters.

From a theoretical framework of human exposure and dose assessment to computational system implementation: the Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risk Studies (MENTOR).

Georgopoulos and Lioy (1994) presented a theoretical framework for exposure analysis, incorporating multiple levels of empirical and mechanistic information while characterizing/reducing uncertainties. The present review summarizes efforts towards implementing that framework, through the development of a mechanistic source-to-dose Modeling ENvironment for TOtal Risks studies (MENTOR), a computational toolbox that provides various modeling and data analysis tools to facilitate assessment of cumulative and aggregate (multipathway) exposures to contaminant mixtures. MENTOR adopts a "Person Oriented Modeling" (POM) approach that can be applied to either specific individuals or to populations/subpopulations of interest; the latter is accomplished by defining samples of "virtual" individuals that statistically reproduce the physiological, demographic, etc., attributes of the populations studied. MENTOR implementations currently incorporate and expand USEPA's SHEDS (Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation) approach and consider multiple exposure routes (inhalation, food, drinking water intake; non-dietary ingestion; dermal absorption). Typically, simulations involve: (1) characterizing background levels of contaminants by combining model predictions and measurement studies; (2) characterizing multimedia levels and temporal profiles of contaminants in various residential and occupational microenvironments; (3) selecting sample populations that statistically reproduce essential demographics (age, gender, race, occupation, education) of relevant population units (e.g., census tracts); (4) developing activity event sequences for each member of the sample by matching attributes to entries of USEPA's Consolidated Human Activity Database (CHAD); (5) calculating intake rates for the sample population members, reflecting physiological attributes and activities pursued; (6) combining intake rates from multiple routes to assess exposures; (7) estimating target tissue doses with physiologically based dosimetry/toxicokinetic modeling.

An evaluation of the role of risk-based decision-making in a former manufactured gas plant site remediation.

Environmental remediation decisions are driven by the need to minimize human health and ecological risks posed by environmental releases. The Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund Sites enunciates the principles of exposure and risk assessment that are to be used for reaching remediation decisions for sites under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). Experience with remediation management under CERCLA has led to recognition of some crucial infirmities in the processes for managing remediation: cleanup management policies are ad hoc in character, mandates and practices are strongly conservative, and contaminant risk management occurs in an artificially narrow context. The purpose of this case study is to show how a policy of risk-based decision-making was used to avoid customary pitfalls in site remediation. This case study describes the risk-based decision-making process in a remedial action program at a former manufactured gas plant site that successfully achieved timely and effective cleanup. The remediation process operated outside the confines of the CERCLA process under an administrative consent order between the utility and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. A residential use end state was negotiated as part of this agreement. The attendant uncertainties, complications, and unexpected contingencies were overcome by using the likely exposures associated with the desired end state to structure all of the remediation management decisions and by collecting site-specific information from the very outset to obtain a detailed and realistic characterization of human health risks that needed to be mitigated. The lessons from this case study are generalizable to more complicated remediation cases, when supported by correspondingly sophisticated technical approaches.

Development and application of a methodology for determining background groundwater quality at the Savannah River Site.

A statistical methodology formulated for defining background or baseline levels of constituents of concern in groundwater is presented. The methodology was developed for the case where prior delineation of unimpacted areas is not possible because of site history and a large set of groundwater monitoring measurements exists. Consideration was given to spatial and temporal trends, outliers, and final segregation of wells into impacted or unimpacted categories to develop probability distributions and summary statistics for each constituent evaluated. The formulated approaches were applied to groundwater monitoring data for the U.S. Department of Energy Savannah River Site facility, and results for four representative constituents (aluminum, arsenic, mercury, and tritium) are discussed.

Preparedness and response to chemical and biological threats: the role of exposure science.

There are multiple components to emergency preparedness and the response to chemical and biological threat agents. The 5Rs framework (rescue, reentry, recovery, restoration, and rehabitation) outlines opportunities to apply exposure science in emergency events. Exposure science provides guidance and refined tools for characterizing, assessing, and reducing risks from catastrophic events, such as the release of hazardous airborne chemicals or biological agents. Important challenges to be met include deployment of assets, including medications, before and after an emergency response situation. Assessment of past studies demonstrates the value of integrating exposure science methods into risk analysis and the management of catastrophic events.

A source-to-dose assessment of population exposures to fine PM and ozone in Philadelphia, PA, during a summer 1999 episode.

A novel source-to-dose modeling study of population exposures to fine particulate matter (PM(2.5)) and ozone (O(3)) was conducted for urban Philadelphia. The study focused on a 2-week episode, 11-24 July 1999, and employed the new integrated and mechanistically consistent source-to-dose modeling framework of MENTOR/SHEDS (Modeling Environment for Total Risk studies/Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation). The MENTOR/SHEDS application presented here consists of four components involved in estimating population exposure/dose: (1) calculation of ambient outdoor concentrations using emission-based photochemical modeling, (2) spatiotemporal interpolation for developing census-tract level outdoor concentration fields, (3) calculation of microenvironmental concentrations that match activity patterns of the individuals in the population of each census tract in the study area, and (4) population-based dosimetry modeling. It was found that the 50th percentiles of calculated microenvironmental concentrations of PM(2.5) and O(3) were significantly correlated with census-tract level outdoor concentrations, respectively. However, while the 95th percentiles of O(3) microenvironmental concentrations were strongly correlated with outdoor concentrations, this was not the case for PM(2.5). By further examining the modeled estimates of the 24-h aggregated PM(2.5) and O(3) doses, it was found that indoor PM(2.5) sources dominated the contributions to the total PM(2.5) doses for the upper 5 percentiles, Environmental Tobacco Smoking (ETS) being the most significant source while O(3) doses due to time spent outdoors dominated the contributions to the total O(3) doses for the upper 5 percentiles. The MENTOR/SHEDS system presented in this study is capable of estimating intake dose based on activity level and inhalation rate, thus completing the source-to-dose modeling sequence. The MENTOR/SHEDS system also utilizes a consistent basis of source characterization, exposure factors, and human activity patterns in conducting population exposure assessment of multiple co-occurring air pollutants, and this constitutes a primary distinction from previous studies of population exposure assessment, where different exposure factors and activity patterns would be used for different pollutants. Future work will focus on incorporating the effects of commuting patterns on population exposure/dose assessments as well as on extending the MENTOR/SHEDS applications to seasonal/annual studies and to other areas in the U.S.