Bayesian characterization of uncertainty in species interaction strengths.

Considerable effort has been devoted to the estimation of species interaction strengths. This effort has focused primarily on statistical significance testing and obtaining point estimates of parameters that contribute to interaction strength magnitudes, leaving the characterization of uncertainty associated with those estimates unconsidered. We consider a means of characterizing the uncertainty of a generalist predator's interaction strengths by formulating an observational method for estimating a predator's prey-specific per capita attack rates as a Bayesian statistical model. This formulation permits the explicit incorporation of multiple sources of uncertainty. A key insight is the informative nature of several so-called non-informative priors that have been used in modeling the sparse data typical of predator feeding surveys. We introduce to ecology a new neutral prior and provide evidence for its superior performance. We use a case study to consider the attack rates in a New Zealand intertidal whelk predator, and we illustrate not only that Bayesian point estimates can be made to correspond with those obtained by frequentist approaches, but also that estimation uncertainty as described by 95% intervals is more useful and biologically realistic using the Bayesian method. In particular, unlike in bootstrap confidence intervals, the lower bounds of the Bayesian posterior intervals for attack rates do not include zero when a predator-prey interaction is in fact observed. We conclude that the Bayesian framework provides a straightforward, probabilistic characterization of interaction strength uncertainty, enabling future considerations of both the deterministic and stochastic drivers of interaction strength and their impact on food webs.

Linking multidimensional functional diversity to quantitative methods: a graphical hypothesis--evaluation framework.

Functional trait analysis is an appealing approach to study differences among biological communities because traits determine species' responses to the environment and their impacts on ecosystem functioning. Despite a rapidly expanding quantitative literature, it remains challenging to conceptualize concurrent changes in multiple trait dimensions ("trait space") and select quantitative functional diversity methods to test hypotheses prior to analysis. To address this need, we present a widely applicable framework for visualizing ecological phenomena in trait space to guide the selection, application, and interpretation of quantitative functional diversity methods. We describe five hypotheses that represent general patterns of responses to disturbance in functional community ecology and then apply a formal decision process to determine appropriate quantitative methods to test ecological hypotheses. As a part of this process, we devise a new statistical approach to test for functional turnover among communities. Our combination of hypotheses and metrics can be applied broadly to address ecological questions across a range of systems and study designs. We illustrate the framework with a case study of disturbance in freshwater communities. This hypothesis-driven approach will increase the rigor and transparency of applied functional trait studies.

Use of aliphatic n-alkynes to discriminate soil nitrification activities of ammonia-oxidizing thaumarchaea and bacteria.

Ammonia (NH3)-oxidizing bacteria (AOB) and thaumarchaea (AOA) co-occupy most soils, yet no short-term growth-independent method exists to determine their relative contributions to nitrification in situ. Microbial monooxygenases differ in their vulnerability to inactivation by aliphatic n-alkynes, and we found that NH3 oxidation by the marine thaumarchaeon Nitrosopumilus maritimus was unaffected during a 24-h exposure to ≤ 20 µM concentrations of 1-alkynes C8 and C9. In contrast, NH3 oxidation by two AOB (Nitrosomonas europaea and Nitrosospira multiformis) was quickly and irreversibly inactivated by 1 µM C8 (octyne). Evidence that nitrification carried out by soilborne AOA was also insensitive to octyne was obtained. In incubations (21 or 28 days) of two different whole soils, both acetylene and octyne effectively prevented NH4(+)-stimulated increases in AOB population densities, but octyne did not prevent increases in AOA population densities that were prevented by acetylene. Furthermore, octyne-resistant, NH4(+)-stimulated net nitrification rates of 2 and 7 µg N/g soil/day persisted throughout the incubation of the two soils. Other evidence that octyne-resistant nitrification was due to AOA included (i) a positive correlation of octyne-resistant nitrification in soil slurries of cropped and noncropped soils with allylthiourea-resistant activity (100 µM) and (ii) the finding that the fraction of octyne-resistant nitrification in soil slurries correlated with the fraction of nitrification that recovered from irreversible acetylene inactivation in the presence of bacterial protein synthesis inhibitors and with the octyne-resistant fraction of NH4(+)-saturated net nitrification measured in whole soils. Octyne can be useful in short-term assays to discriminate AOA and AOB contributions to soil nitrification.

The effects of taurolidine alone and in combination with doxorubicin or carboplatin in canine osteosarcoma in vitro.

BACKGROUND: Osteosarcoma (OS) affects over 8000 dogs/year in the United States. The disease usually arises in the appendicular skeleton and metastasizes to the lung. Dogs with localized appendicular disease benefit from limb amputation and chemotherapy but most die within 6-12 months despite these treatments. Taurolidine, a derivative of taurine, has anti-tumor and anti-angiogenic effects against a variety of cancers. The following in vitro studies tested taurolidine as a candidate for adjuvant therapy for canine OS. Tests for p53 protein status and caspase activity were used to elucidate mechanisms of taurolidine-induced cell death. RESULTS: Taurolidine was cytotoxic to osteosarcoma cells and increased the toxicity of doxorubicin and carboplatin in vitro. Apoptosis was greatly induced in cells exposed to 125 µM taurolidine and less so in cells exposed to 250 µM taurolidine. Taurolidine cytotoxicity appeared caspase-dependent in one cell line; with apparent mutant p53 protein. This cell line was the most sensitive to single agent taurolidine treatment and had a taurolidine-dependent reduction in accumulated p53 protein suggesting taurolidine's effects may depend on the functional status of p53 in canine OS. CONCLUSION: Taurolidine's cytotoxic effect appears dependent on cell specific factors which may be explained, in part, by the functional status of p53. Taurolidine initiates apoptosis in canine OS cells and this occurs to a greater extent at lower concentrations. Mechanisms of cell death induced by higher concentrations were not elucidated here. Taurolidine combined with doxorubicin or carboplatin can increase the toxicity of these chemotherapy drugs and warrants further investigation in dogs with osteosarcoma.

Partitioning variation in Douglas-fir xylem properties among multiple scales via a Bayesian hierarchical model.

Hierarchical biological scales permeate research in tree physiology and represent multiple sources of variation. We discuss the importance of matching the sampling and analysis scales to biological scales in the data. The advantages of statistical hierarchical modeling are demonstrated using the relationship between specific conductivity and tracheid diameter of secondary xylem as an example. The structure and results of three statistical models were compared within a Bayesian context: a simple linear regression (SLR); a repeated measures analysis (REP); and a hierarchical model (HM). The models share similar mean structures but differ in how variation is partitioned among scales: the SLR model assumes independence among observations (variation came from only a single scale); the REP allows multiple observations of each tree to be correlated; and the HM incorporates features of the REP with an additional variance structure that partitions variation across a broader scale. Our data included hierarchical scales of position on the tree, tree, fertilization treatment and species (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco). The HM gave more precise estimates for model parameters, was more robust to outliers, provided a more detailed description of covariances within the data at multiple scales compared with the SLR and REP and increased our ability to detect differences among positions on the tree. The proper statistical analyses increase the value of research by allowing the most exact interpretation.

Effects of topical application of taurolidine on second intention healing of experimentally induced wounds in rats.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the macroscopic effects of topical application of taurolidine on second intention healing of experimentally induced wounds in rats. ANIMALS: 32 adult Sprague-Dawley female rats. PROCEDURES: In each rat, 2 skin wounds were created in the lumbar area. Groups of 7 rats were assigned to have 1 wound treated topically with hydroxycellulose gel (HDCG), 2% taurolidine in HDCG (T-HDCG), 2% taurolidine-sodium citrate solution, or bacitracin-neomycin-polymyxin B ointment; the other wound was not treated. Four control rats (8 untreated wounds) were used. Wounds were monitored for contraction, epithelialization, and complete healing at 4, 8, and 14 days after wound creation. The number of days to complete healing was also recorded for each wound. RESULTS: Compared with other treatments or untreated wounds, wounds treated with T-HDCG had decreased total healing at day 8 and decreased epithelialization and decreased total healing at day 14. Wounds treated with T-HDCG required approximately 3 days longer to completely heal than all other treated and untreated wounds. Application of bacitracinneomycin-polymyxin B ointment did not enhance wound healing. Mean time to complete healing of untreated wounds in all treatment and control groups was 10.00 to 10.14 days. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: In rats, topical application of T-HDCG to wounds had a negative effect on second intention healing by delaying the epithelialization process. In mammals, generally, wounds treated topically with taurolidine may need to be treated and monitored for a longer period than other wounds treated with other common woundhealing compounds or untreated wounds.

Carryover aquatic effects on survival of metamorphic frogs during pond emigration.

In organisms with complex life cycles, physiological stressors during early life stages may have fitness-level impacts that are delayed into later stages or habitats. We tested the hypothesis that body size and date of metamorphosis, which are highly responsive to aquatic stressors, influence post-metamorphic survival and movement patterns in the terrestrial phase of an ephemeral pond-breeding frog by examining these traits in two populations of northern red-legged frogs (Rana aurora aurora). To increase variation of body size at metamorphosis, we manipulated food availability for 314 of 1045 uniquely marked tadpoles and estimated the probability that frogs survived and emigrated using concentric rings of drift fencing surrounding ponds and Bayesian capture-recapture modeling. The odds of surviving and emigrating from the ponds to the innermost drift fences, approximately 12 m, increased by factors of 2.20 (95% credibility intervals 1.39-4.23) and 2.54 (0.94-4.91) with each millimeter increase in snout-vent length and decreased by factors of 0.91 (0.85-0.96) and 0.89 (0.80-1.00) with each day's delay in metamorphosis for the two ponds. The odds of surviving and moving to the next ring of fencing, 12 m to approximately 40 m from the ponds, increased by a factor of 1.20 (0.45-4.06) with each millimeter increase in size. Our results demonstrated that body size and timing of metamorphosis relate strongly to the performance of newly metamorphosed frogs during their initial transition into terrestrial habitat. Carryover effects of aquatic stressors that reduce size and delay metamorphosis may have population-level impacts that are not expressed until terrestrial stages. Since changes in both aquatic and terrestrial systems are implicated in many amphibian declines, quantifying both immediate and delayed effects of stressors on demographic rates is critical to sound management.

Designing a Monitoring Program to Estimate Estuarine Survival of Anadromous Salmon Smolts: Simulating the Effect of Sample Design on Inference.

A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data could result in better informed management decisions and assist in guidance for more effective estuarine restoration projects.