A regime shift in the Southeast Greenland marine ecosystem.

Two major oceanographic changes have recently propagated through several trophic levels in coastal areas of Southeast Greenland (SEG). Firstly, the amount of drift-ice exported from the Fram Strait and transported with the East Greenland Current (EGC) has decreased significantly over the past two decades, and a main tipping element (summer sea ice) has virtually disappeared since 2003 leading to a regime shift in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the region. The following 20-year period with low or no coastal sea ice is unique in the 200-year history of ice observations in the region, and the regime shift is also obvious in the volume of ice export through the Fram Strait after 2013. In the same period, the temperature of the EGC south of 73.5 N has increased significantly (>2°C) since 1980. Secondly, the warm Irminger Current, which advects warm, saline Atlantic Water into the region, has become warmer since 1990. The lack of pack ice in summer together with a warming ocean generated cascading effects on the ecosystem in SEG that are manifested in a changed fish fauna with an influx of boreal species in the south and the subarctic capelin further north. At higher trophic levels there has been an increase in the abundance of several boreal cetaceans (humpback, fin, killer, and pilot whales and dolphins) that are either new to this area or occur in historically large numbers. It is estimated that the new cetacean species in SEG are responsible for an annual predation level of 700,000 tons of fish. In addition, predation on krill species is estimated at >1,500,000 tons mainly consumed by fin whales. Simultaneously, there has been a reduction in the abundance and catches of narwhals and walruses in SEG and it is suggested that these species have been impacted by the habitat changes.

Vertical redistribution of principle water masses on the Northeast Greenland Shelf.

The Northeast Greenland shelf (NEGS) is a recipient of Polar Water (PW) from the Arctic Ocean, Greenland Ice Sheet melt, and Atlantic Water (AW). Here, we compile hydrographical measurements to quantify long-term changes in fjords and coastal waters. We find a profound change in the vertical distribution of water masses, with AW shoaling >60 m and PW thinning >50 m since early 2000's. The properties of these waters have also changed. AW is now 1 °C warmer and the salinity of surface waters and PW are 1.8 and 0.68 lower, respectively. The AW changes have substantially weakened stratification south of ~74°N, indicating increased accessibility of heat and potentially nutrients associated with AW. The Atlantification earlier reported for the eastern Fram Strait and Barents Sea region has also propagated to the NEGS. The increased presence of AW, is an important driver for regional change leading to a likely shift in ecosystem structure and function.