Calibrating COVID-19 susceptible-exposed-infected-removed models with time-varying effectivecontact rates.

We describe the population-based susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a time-varying effective contact rate (equivalently, a time-varying reproduction number) to model the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions. A crucial technical challenge in applying such models is their accurate calibration to observed data, e.g. to the daily number of confirmed new cases, as the history of the disease strongly affects predictions of future scenarios. We demonstrate an approach based on inversion of the SEIR equations in conjunction with statistical modelling and spline-fitting of the data to produce a robust methodology for calibration of a wide class of models of this type. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance'.

Symmetry-breaking mechanism for the formation of cluster chimera patterns.

The emergence of order in collective dynamics is a fascinating phenomenon that characterizes many natural systems consisting of coupled entities. Synchronization is such an example where individuals, usually represented by either linear or nonlinear oscillators, can spontaneously act coherently with each other when the interactions' configuration fulfills certain conditions. However, synchronization is not always perfect, and the coexistence of coherent and incoherent oscillators, broadly known in the literature as chimera states, is also possible. Although several attempts have been made to explain how chimera states are created, their emergence, stability, and robustness remain a long-debated question. We propose an approach that aims to establish a robust mechanism through which cluster synchronization and chimera patterns originate. We first introduce a stability-breaking method where clusters of synchronized oscillators can emerge. At variance with the standard approach where synchronization arises as a collective behavior of coupled oscillators, in our model, the system initially sets on a homogeneous fixed-point regime, and, only due to a global instability principle, collective oscillations emerge. Following a combination of the network modularity and the model's parameters, one or more clusters of oscillators become incoherent within yielding a particular class of patterns that we here name cluster chimera states.

Publisher's Note: Equivalence between non-Markovian and Markovian Dynamics in Epidemic Spreading Processes [Phys. Rev. Lett. 118, 128301 (2017)].

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.128301.

Synchronization Dynamics in Non-Normal Networks: The Trade-Off for Optimality.

Synchronization is an important behavior that characterizes many natural and human made systems that are composed by several interacting units. It can be found in a broad spectrum of applications, ranging from neuroscience to power-grids, to mention a few. Such systems synchronize because of the complex set of coupling they exhibit, with the latter being modeled by complex networks. The dynamical behavior of the system and the topology of the underlying network are strongly intertwined, raising the question of the optimal architecture that makes synchronization robust. The Master Stability Function (MSF) has been proposed and extensively studied as a generic framework for tackling synchronization problems. Using this method, it has been shown that, for a class of models, synchronization in strongly directed networks is robust to external perturbations. Recent findings indicate that many real-world networks are strongly directed, being potential candidates for optimal synchronization. Moreover, many empirical networks are also strongly non-normal. Inspired by this latter fact in this work, we address the role of the non-normality in the synchronization dynamics by pointing out that standard techniques, such as the MSF, may fail to predict the stability of synchronized states. We demonstrate that, due to a transient growth that is induced by the structure's non-normality, the system might lose synchronization, contrary to the spectral prediction. These results lead to a trade-off between non-normality and directedness that should be properly considered when designing an optimal network, enhancing the robustness of synchronization.

Sparse Power-Law Network Model for Reliable Statistical Predictions Based on Sampled Data.

A projective network model is a model that enables predictions to be made based on a subsample of the network data, with the predictions remaining unchanged if a larger sample is taken into consideration. An exchangeable model is a model that does not depend on the order in which nodes are sampled. Despite a large variety of non-equilibrium (growing) and equilibrium (static) sparse complex network models that are widely used in network science, how to reconcile sparseness (constant average degree) with the desired statistical properties of projectivity and exchangeability is currently an outstanding scientific problem. Here we propose a network process with hidden variables which is projective and can generate sparse power-law networks. Despite the model not being exchangeable, it can be closely related to exchangeable uncorrelated networks as indicated by its information theory characterization and its network entropy. The use of the proposed network process as a null model is here tested on real data, indicating that the model offers a promising avenue for statistical network modelling.

Concurrency-Induced Transitions in Epidemic Dynamics on Temporal Networks.

Social contact networks underlying epidemic processes in humans and animals are highly dynamic. The spreading of infections on such temporal networks can differ dramatically from spreading on static networks. We theoretically investigate the effects of concurrency, the number of neighbors that a node has at a given time point, on the epidemic threshold in the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on temporal network models. We show that network dynamics can suppress epidemics (i.e., yield a higher epidemic threshold) when the node's concurrency is low, but can also enhance epidemics when the concurrency is high. We analytically determine different phases of this concurrency-induced transition, and confirm our results with numerical simulations.

Equivalence between Non-Markovian and Markovian Dynamics in Epidemic Spreading Processes.

A general formalism is introduced to allow the steady state of non-Markovian processes on networks to be reduced to equivalent Markovian processes on the same substrates. The example of an epidemic spreading process is considered in detail, where all the non-Markovian aspects are shown to be captured within a single parameter, the effective infection rate. Remarkably, this result is independent of the topology of the underlying network, as demonstrated by numerical simulations on two-dimensional lattices and various types of random networks. Furthermore, an analytic approximation for the effective infection rate is introduced, which enables the calculation of the critical point and of the critical exponents for the non-Markovian dynamics.

A simple generative model of collective online behavior.

Human activities increasingly take place in online environments, providing novel opportunities for relating individual behaviors to population-level outcomes. In this paper, we introduce a simple generative model for the collective behavior of millions of social networking site users who are deciding between different software applications. Our model incorporates two distinct mechanisms: one is associated with recent decisions of users, and the other reflects the cumulative popularity of each application. Importantly, although various combinations of the two mechanisms yield long-time behavior that is consistent with data, the only models that reproduce the observed temporal dynamics are those that strongly emphasize the recent popularity of applications over their cumulative popularity. This demonstrates--even when using purely observational data without experimental design--that temporal data-driven modeling can effectively distinguish between competing microscopic mechanisms, allowing us to uncover previously unidentified aspects of collective online behavior.

Graph fission in an evolving voter model.

We consider a simplified model of a social network in which individuals have one of two opinions (called 0 and 1) and their opinions and the network connections coevolve. Edges are picked at random. If the two connected individuals hold different opinions then, with probability 1 - α, one imitates the opinion of the other; otherwise (i.e., with probability α), the link between them is broken and one of them makes a new connection to an individual chosen at random (i) from those with the same opinion or (ii) from the network as a whole. The evolution of the system stops when there are no longer any discordant edges connecting individuals with different opinions. Letting ρ be the fraction of voters holding the minority opinion after the evolution stops, we are interested in how ρ depends on α and the initial fraction u of voters with opinion 1. In case (i), there is a critical value α(c) which does not depend on u, with ρ ≈ u for α > α(c) and ρ ≈ 0 for α < α(c). In case (ii), the transition point α(c)(u) depends on the initial density u. For α > α(c)(u), ρ ≈ u, but for α < α(c)(u), we have ρ(α,u) = ρ(α,1/2). Using simulations and approximate calculations, we explain why these two nearly identical models have such dramatically different phase transitions.

Competition-induced criticality in a model of meme popularity.

Heavy-tailed distributions of meme popularity occur naturally in a model of meme diffusion on social networks. Competition between multiple memes for the limited resource of user attention is identified as the mechanism that poises the system at criticality. The popularity growth of each meme is described by a critical branching process, and asymptotic analysis predicts power-law distributions of popularity with very heavy tails (exponent α<2, unlike preferential-attachment models), similar to those seen in empirical data.

Dynamics on modular networks with heterogeneous correlations.

We develop a new ensemble of modular random graphs in which degree-degree correlations can be different in each module, and the inter-module connections are defined by the joint degree-degree distribution of nodes for each pair of modules. We present an analytical approach that allows one to analyze several types of binary dynamics operating on such networks, and we illustrate our approach using bond percolation, site percolation, and the Watts threshold model. The new network ensemble generalizes existing models (e.g., the well-known configuration model and Lancichinetti-Fortunato-Radicchi networks) by allowing a heterogeneous distribution of degree-degree correlations across modules, which is important for the consideration of nonidentical interacting networks.

Effectiveness of contact tracing on networks with cliques.

Contact tracing, the practice of isolating individuals who have been in contact with infected individuals, is an effective and practical way of containing disease spread. Here we show that this strategy is particularly effective in the presence of social groups: Once the disease enters a group, contact tracing not only cuts direct infection paths but can also pre-emptively quarantine group members such that it will cut indirect spreading routes. We show these results by using a deliberately stylized model that allows us to isolate the effect of contact tracing within the clique structure of the network where the contagion is spreading. This will enable us to derive mean-field approximations and epidemic thresholds to demonstrate the efficiency of contact tracing in social networks with small groups. This analysis shows that contact tracing in networks with groups is more efficient the larger the groups are. We show how these results can be understood by approximating the combination of disease spreading and contact tracing with a complex contagion process where every failed infection attempt will lead to a lower infection probability in the following attempts. Our results illustrate how contact tracing in real-world settings can be more efficient than predicted by models that treat the system as fully mixed or the network structure as locally treelike.

Multi-stage complex contagions.

The spread of ideas across a social network can be studied using complex contagion models, in which agents are activated by contact with multiple activated neighbors. The investigation of complex contagions can provide crucial insights into social influence and behavior-adoption cascades on networks. In this paper, we introduce a model of a multi-stage complex contagion on networks. Agents at different stages-which could, for example, represent differing levels of support for a social movement or differing levels of commitment to a certain product or idea-exert different amounts of influence on their neighbors. We demonstrate that the presence of even one additional stage introduces novel dynamical behavior, including interplay between multiple cascades, which cannot occur in single-stage contagion models. We find that cascades-and hence collective action-can be driven not only by high-stage influencers but also by low-stage influencers.

Agent-based null models for examining experimental social interaction networks.

We consider the analysis of temporal data arising from online interactive social experiments, which is complicated by the fact that classical independence assumptions about the observations are not satisfied. Therefore, we propose an approach that compares the output of a fitted (linear) model from the observed interaction data to that generated by an assumed agent-based null model. This allows us to discover, for example, the extent to which the structure of social interactions differs from that of random interactions. Moreover, we provide network visualisations that identify the extent of ingroup favouritism and reciprocity as well as particular individuals whose behaviour differs markedly from the norm. We specifically consider experimental data collected via the novel Virtual Interaction APPLication (VIAPPL). We find that ingroup favouritism and reciprocity are present in social interactions observed on this platform, and that these behaviours strengthen over time. Note that, while our proposed methodology was developed with VIAPPL in mind, its potential usage extends to any type of social interaction data.

Behavior problems, foster home integration, and evidence-based behavioral interventions: What predicts adoption of foster children?

OBJECTIVES: Adoption is particularly important for foster children with special mental health needs who are unable to return home, as adoption increases parental support often critically needed by youth with mental health issues. Unfortunately, significant behavior problems frequently inhibit foster parents from adopting, and little is known about factors that predict adoption when a child has behavior problems. Previous research suggests that foster parent behavioral training could potentially increase rates of successful adoptions for pre-school-aged foster children with behavior problems (Fisher, Kim, & Pears, 2009), but this has not been previously tested in older samples. In older children, effective treatment of behavior problems might also increase adoption by reducing the interference of behavior problems and strengthening the child's foster home integration. This pilot study focused on this question by testing associations between behavior problems, foster home integration, an evidence-based foster parent intervention, and adoption likelihood. METHODS: This study used an intent-to-treat design to compare foster home integration and adoption likelihood for 31 foster children with histories of abuse and neglect whose foster parents received a foster behavioral parenting intervention (see Chamberlain, 2003) or usual services. Random effect regression analyses were used to estimate outcomes across four time points. RESULTS: As expected, externalizing behavior problems had a negative effect on both integration and adoption, and foster home integration had an independent positive effect on adoption. Internalizing behavior problems (e.g., depression/anxiety) were not related to adoption or integration. However, the intervention did not have a direct effect on either foster home integration or adoption despite its positive effect on behavior problems. CONCLUSIONS: Results from this preliminary study provide further evidence of the negative effect of externalizing behavior problems on adoption. Its findings also suggest that foster home integration is an important dimension of foster home adaptation that appears particularly relevant to chances for adoption. While behavior problems appear to weaken foster home integration, integration is also an independent predictor of adoption likelihood. If these results are replicated in a larger study, consideration of foster home integration in case planning and future intervention studies focused on increasing permanency could potentially improve outcomes for foster children with behavior problems.

Multitype branching process method for modeling complex contagion on clustered networks.

Complex contagion adoption dynamics are characterized by a node being more likely to adopt after multiple network neighbors have adopted. We show how to construct multitype branching processes to approximate complex contagion adoption dynamics on networks with clique-based clustering. This involves tracking the evolution of a cascade via different classes of clique motifs that account for the different numbers of active, inactive, and removed nodes. This discrete-time model assumes that active nodes become immediately and certainly removed in the next time step. This description allows for extensive Monte Carlo simulations (which are faster than network-based simulations), accurate analytical calculation of cascade sizes, determination of critical behavior, and other quantities of interest.

High-accuracy approximation of binary-state dynamics on networks.

Binary-state dynamics (such as the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of disease spread, or Glauber spin dynamics) on random networks are accurately approximated using master equations. Standard mean-field and pairwise theories are shown to result from seeking approximate solutions of the master equations. Applications to the calculation of SIS epidemic thresholds and critical points of nonequilibrium spin models are also demonstrated.

Tricritical point in heterogeneous k-core percolation.

k-core percolation is an extension of the concept of classical percolation and is particularly relevant to understanding the resilience of complex networks under random damage. A new analytical formalism has been recently proposed to deal with heterogeneous k-cores, where each vertex is assigned a local threshold k(i). In this Letter we identify a binary mixture of heterogeneous k-cores which exhibits a tricritical point. We investigate the new scaling scenario and calculate the relevant critical exponents, by analytical and computational methods, for Erdos-Rényi networks and 2D square lattices.

Dynamics of cascades on burstiness-controlled temporal networks.

Burstiness, the tendency of interaction events to be heterogeneously distributed in time, is critical to information diffusion in physical and social systems. However, an analytical framework capturing the effect of burstiness on generic dynamics is lacking. Here we develop a master equation formalism to study cascades on temporal networks with burstiness modelled by renewal processes. Supported by numerical and data-driven simulations, we describe the interplay between heterogeneous temporal interactions and models of threshold-driven and epidemic spreading. We find that increasing interevent time variance can both accelerate and decelerate spreading for threshold models, but can only decelerate epidemic spreading. When accounting for the skewness of different interevent time distributions, spreading times collapse onto a universal curve. Our framework uncovers a deep yet subtle connection between generic diffusion mechanisms and underlying temporal network structures that impacts a broad class of networked phenomena, from spin interactions to epidemic contagion and language dynamics.

Generalized mean-field approximation for the Deffuant opinion dynamics model on networks.

When the interactions of agents on a network are assumed to follow the Deffuant opinion dynamics model, the outcomes are known to depend on the structure of the underlying network. This behavior cannot be captured by existing mean-field approximations for the Deffuant model. In this paper, a generalized mean-field approximation is derived that accounts for the effects of network topology on Deffuant dynamics through the degree distribution or community structure of the network. The accuracy of the approximation is examined by comparison with large-scale Monte Carlo simulations on both synthetic and real-world networks.