A social media intervention for high-intensity drinking among emerging adults: a pilot randomized controlled trial.

AIMS: High-intensity drinking (HID) is a pattern of risky drinking defined as at least 8 drinks (for women) or 10 drinks (for men) in a single episode. Individuals engaged in HID may be at greater risk for consequences, necessitating tailored interventions. Herein, we report the feasibility and acceptability of a social media-delivered 8-week intervention for emerging adults with recent HID. METHODS: Using social media advertising, we recruited 102 emerging adults who reported past-month HID. Average age was 20.0 year-olds (SD = 2.0); 51.0% were male. Most identified as White (64.7%; 14.7% Black/African American, 13.7% multiracial) and 26.5% identified as Hispanic/Latinx. Participants were randomized to an 8-week intervention delivered via Snapchat by health coaches (N = 50) or to a control condition (psychoeducational website referral; N = 52). Follow-ups occurred at 2 and 4 months post-baseline. RESULTS: The intervention was acceptable (85.1% liked it/liked it a lot) and there were high follow-up rates. Participants rated coaches as supportive (91.5%) and respectful (93.6%). Descriptively, helpfulness ratings were higher for non-alcohol-related content (e.g. stress; 59.6% very/extremely helpful) than alcohol-related content (40.4% very/extremely helpful). Regarding engagement, 86.0% engaged approximately weekly and 59.6% indicated they saved intervention snaps. Descriptive data showed reductions over time in several measures of alcohol consumption and consequences as well as cannabis-impaired driving and mental health symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: This 8-week social media intervention for HID was feasible and acceptable among emerging adults, supporting the benefit of future testing in a fully powered trial.

Firearm manufacturing and imports in the USA and their association to firearm homicides in Central America and the Caribbean, 1991-2019.

BACKGROUND: Firearm manufacturing and imports grew in the US during the mid-2000s. We hypothesise those increases corresponded to increased international firearms trafficking and in turn were associated with increases in firearm homicides abroad. METHODS: We used the Global Burden of Disease database to quantify annual firearm and non-firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries, 1991-2019. We obtained US firearm manufacturing and import data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. We used two-way fixed effects regressions to estimate within-country associations between homicide rates (firearm and non-firearm) and US firearm manufacturing and imports. FINDINGS: Firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries increased from 8.38/100K population in 2004 to 17.55/100 K in 2012 and remained steady thereafter. Those surges coincided with increases in US firearm manufacturing/imports (from 4.99 million in 2004 to 13.12 million in 2012). Non-firearm homicides remained roughly constant from 1991 to 2019. Adjusted analysis showed that an annual increase of one million firearms manufactured/imported in the US corresponded to an annual increase of 1.42 (95% CI 0.62 to 2.21) firearm homicides per 100 K in Central American and Caribbean countries. The corresponding change for non-firearm homicides was -0.18 (95% CI -1.46 to 1.11). We found country-to-country variability in these effects. INTERPRETATION: Increases in US firearm manufacturing/imports were associated with increases in firearm homicide rates in Central American and Caribbean countries but not associated with non-firearm homicides. The specificity to firearm homicides suggests possible international repercussions of increased firearm manufacturing and imports in the US implications are discussed.

Experiencing violence and other predictors of within-person same-day use of multiple substances in youth: a longitudinal study in emergency settings.

Background: Although experiencing violence is a risk factor for substance use among youth, its association with same-day use of multiple substances (a form of polysubstance use) and mitigating factors is less well understood.Objectives: To identify whether prosocial factors modified the effect of experiencing violence on the frequency of same-day use, and examine gender-specific risk/protective factors for same-day use.Methods: We analyzed longitudinal data from a cohort of youth who use drugs aged 14-24 (n = 599; 58% male) presenting to an urban emergency department between 2009-2011 and assessed biannually for two years. Using Poisson-generalized linear models with person-level fixed effects, we estimated within-person associations between self-reported experiencing violence and same-day use and analyzed gender and peer/parent support as effect modifiers. We adjusted for negative peer influence, parental drug and alcohol use, family conflict, anxiety and depression, and age.Results: Overall, positive parental support corresponded to lower rates of same-day use (rate ratio [RR]:0.93, 95% CI:0.87-0.99) and experiencing violence was associated with higher rates of same-day use (RR:1.25, 95% CI:1.10-1.41). Violence exposure was a risk factor among males (RR:1.42, 95% CI:1.21-1.66), while negative peer influences and parental substance use were risk factors among females (RR:1.63, 95% CI:1.36-1.97 and RR:1.58, 95% CI:1.35-1.83, respectively). Positive peer support reduced the association between violence exposure and same-day use among males (RR:0.69, 95% CI:0.57-0.84, p < .05).Conclusions: Tailored interventions may address gender differences in coping with experiencing violence - including interventions that promote parental support among males and reduce influence from parental substance use among females.

Impact of firearm injury in children and adolescents on health care costs and use within a family.

In 2020, firearm injury became the leading cause of death in U.S. children and adolescents. This study examines sequelae of firearm injury among children and adolescents in terms of health care costs and use within a family over time using an event study design. Using data from a large U.S. commercial insurance company from 2013 to 2019, we identified 532 children and adolescents aged 1-19 years who experienced any firearm-related acute hospitalization or emergency department (ED) encounter and 1667 of their family members (833 parents and 834 siblings). Outcomes included total health care costs, any acute hospitalization and ED visits (yes/no), and number of outpatient management visits, each determined on a quarterly basis 2 years before and 3 years after the firearm injury. Among injured children and adolescents, during the first quarter after the firearm injury, quarterly total health care costs were $24,018 higher than pre-injury; probability of acute hospitalization and ED visits were 27.9% and 90.4% higher, respectively; and number of outpatient visits was 1.8 higher (p < .001 for all). Quarterly total costs continued to be elevated during the second quarter post-injury ($1878 higher than pre-injury, p < .01) and number of outpatient visits remained elevated throughout the first year post-injury (0.6, 0.4, and 0.3 higher in the second through fourth quarter, respectively; p < .05 for all). Parents' number of outpatient visits increased during the second and third years after the firearm injury (0.3 and 0.5 higher per quarter than pre-injury; p < .05). Youth firearm injury has long-lasting impact on health care within a family.

Firearm homicides among hispanics and white non-hispanics: measuring disparities.

Firearm homicides are increasing in the United States, and firearm homicides are a critical driver of racial health disparities. One such disparity that has received limited attention is excess firearm homicides among Hispanics, relative to White Non-Hispanics; comprehensively characterising this disparity is the purpose of this brief report. Using data from CDC WONDER, we examined temporal trends (2012-2021) in firearm homicide rate disparities between Hispanics and White Non-Hispanics in the U.S. Focusing on recently elevated rates (2018-2021), we estimated this disparity across demographics (gender, age, urbanicity, and race), and across U.S. states. These data clearly show nearly universal excess firearm homicide among Hispanics, relative to White Non-Hispanics, with larger differences among men, younger age groups, and in metropolitan areas. Similarly, nearly all states show higher rates of firearm homicide among Hispanics, relative to White Non-Hispanics, though the magnitude of the difference varies substantially.

Effects of demolishing abandoned buildings on firearm violence: a moderation analysis using aerial imagery and deep learning.

PURPOSE: Demolishing abandoned buildings has been found to reduce nearby firearm violence. However, these effects might vary within cities and across time scales. We aimed to identify potential moderators of the effects of demolitions on firearm violence using a novel approach that combined machine learning and aerial imagery. METHODS: Outcomes were annual counts of fatal and non-fatal shootings in Rochester, New York, from 2000 to 2020. Treatment was demolitions conducted from 2009 to 2019. Units of analysis were 152×152 m grid squares. We used a difference-in-differences approach to test effects: (A) the year after each demolition and (B) as demolitions accumulated over time. As moderators, we used a built environment typology generated by extracting information from aerial imagery using convolutional neural networks, a deep learning approach, combined with k-means clustering. We stratified our main models by built environment cluster to test for moderation. RESULTS: One demolition was associated with a 14% shootings reduction (incident rate ratio (IRR)=0.86, 95% CI 0.83 to 0.90, p<0.001) the following year. Demolitions were also associated with a long-term, 2% reduction in shootings per year for each cumulative demolition (IRR=0.98, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.00, p=0.02). In the stratified models, densely built areas with higher street connectivity displayed following-year effects, but not long-term effects. Areas with lower density and larger parcels displayed long-term effects but not following-year effects. CONCLUSIONS: The built environment might influence the magnitude and duration of the effects of demolitions on firearm violence. Policymakers may consider complementary programmes to help sustain these effects in high-density areas.

Prescription characteristics associated with fall-related injury risk among older adults prescribed benzodiazepines: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Benzodiazepines (BZD) are widely prescribed to older adults despite their association with increased fall injury. Our aim is to better characterize risk-elevating factors among those prescribed BZD. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study using a 20% sample of Medicare beneficiaries with Part D prescription drug coverage. Patients with a BZD prescription ("index") between 1 April 2016 and 31 December 2017 contributed to incident (n=379,273) and continuing (n=509,634) cohorts based on prescriptions during a 6-month pre-index baseline. Exposures were index BZD average daily dose and days prescribed; baseline BZD medication possession ratio (MPR) (for the continuing cohort); and co-prescribed central nervous system-active medications. Outcome was a treated fall-related injury within 30 days post-index BZD, examined using Cox proportional hazards adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates and the dose prescribed. RESULTS: Among incident and continuing cohorts, 0.9% and 0.7% experienced fall injury within 30 days of index. In both cohorts, injury risk was elevated immediately post-index among those prescribed the lowest quantity: e.g., for <14-day fill (ref: 14-30 days) in the incident cohort, risk was 37% higher the 10 days post-fill (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.37 [95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.59]). Risk was elevated immediately post-index for continuing users with low baseline BZD exposure (e.g., for MPR <0.5 [ref: MPR 0.5-1], HR during days 1-10 was 1.23 [CI 1.08-1.39]). Concurrent antipsychotics and opioids were associated with elevated injury risk in both cohorts (e.g., incident HRs 1.21 [CI 1.03-1.40] and 1.22 [CI 1.07-1.40], respectively; continuing HRs 1.23 [1.10-1.37] and 1.21 [1.11-1.33]). CONCLUSIONS: Low baseline BZD exposure and a small index prescription were associated with higher fall injury risk immediately after a BZD fill. Concurrent exposure to antipsychotics and opioids were associated with elevated short-term risk for both incident and continuing cohorts.

Factors associated with naloxone availability and dispensing through Michigan's pharmacy standing order.

Background: Pharmacy standing order policies allow pharmacists to dispense naloxone, thereby increasing access to naloxone. Objectives: To describe pharmacy standing order participation and associations of pharmacy and community characteristics that predict naloxone availability and dispensing across eight counties in Michigan. Methods: We conducted a telephone survey of 662 standing order pharmacies with a response rate of 81% (n = 539). Pharmacies were linked with census tract-level demographics, overdose fatality rates, and dispensing data. County maps were created to visualize pharmacy locations relative to fatality rates. Regression models analyzed associations between pharmacy type, neighborhood characteristics, fatality rates, and these outcomes: naloxone availability, having ever dispensed naloxone, and counts of naloxone dispensed. Results: The prevalence of standing order pharmacies was 54% (n = 662/1231). Maps revealed areas with higher fatality rates had fewer pharmacies participating in the standing order or lacked any pharmacy access. Among standing order pharmacies surveyed, 85% (n = 458/539) had naloxone available and 82% had ever dispensed (n = 333/406). The mean out-of-pocket cost of Narcan® was $127.77 (SD: 23.93). National chains were more likely than regional chains to stock naloxone (AOR = 3.75, 95%CI = 1.77, 7.93) and to have ever dispensed naloxone (AOR 3.02, 95%CI = 1.21,7.57). Higher volume of naloxone dispensed was associated in neighborhoods with greater proportions of public health insurance (IRR = 1.38, 95%CI = 1.21, 1.58) and populations under 44 years old (IRR = 1.24, 95%CI = 1.04, 1.48). There was no association with neighborhood overdose fatality rates or race in regression models. Conclusion: As deaths from the opioid epidemic continue to escalate, efforts to expand naloxone access through greater standing order pharmacy participation are warranted.

Translating Violence Prevention Programs from Research to Practice: SafERteens Implementation in an Urban Emergency Department.

BACKGROUND: Youth violence is a leading cause of adolescent mortality, underscoring the need to integrate evidence-based violence prevention programs into routine emergency department (ED) care. OBJECTIVES: To examine the translation of the SafERteens program into clinical care. METHODS: Hospital staff provided input on implementation facilitators/barriers to inform toolkit development. Implementation was piloted in a four-arm effectiveness-implementation trial, with youth (ages 14-18 years) screening positive for past 3-month aggression randomized to either SafERteens (delivered remotely or in-person) or enhanced usual care (EUC; remote or in-person), with follow-up at post-test and 3 months. During maintenance, ED staff continued in-person SafERteens delivery and external facilitation was provided. Outcomes were measured using the RE-AIM implementation framework. RESULTS: SafERteens completion rates were 77.6% (52/67) for remote and 49.1% (27/55) for in-person delivery. In addition to high acceptability ratings (e.g., helpfulness), post-test data demonstrated increased self-efficacy to avoid fighting among patients receiving remote (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-1.36) and in-person (IRR 1.23, 95% CI 1.12-1.36) SafERteens, as well as decreased pro-violence attitudes among patients receiving remote (IRR 0.83, 95% CI 0.75-0.91) and in-person (IRR 0.87, 95% CI 0.77-0.99) SafERteens when compared with their respective EUC groups. At 3 months, youth receiving remote SafERteens reported less non-partner aggression (IRR 0.52, 95% CI 0.31-0.87, Cohen's d -0.39) and violence consequences (IRR 0.47, 95% CI 0.22-1.00, Cohen's d -0.49) compared with remote EUC; no differences were noted for in-person SafERteens delivery. Barriers to implementation maintenance included limited staff availability and a lack of reimbursement codes. CONCLUSIONS: Implementing behavioral interventions such as SafERteens into routine ED care is feasible using remote delivery. Policymakers should consider reimbursement for violence prevention services to sustain long-term implementation.

Longitudinal within- and between-person associations of substance use, social influences, and loneliness among adolescents and emerging adults who use drugs.

Loneliness is a public health problem causing morbidity and mortality. Individuals with substance use problems are often lonelier than the general population. We evaluate the longitudinal associations between social influences, substance use, and loneliness among adolescents and young adults recruited from an urban Emergency Department (ED). We use secondary data from a natural history study of N=599 youth (ages 14-24) who used drugs at baseline and completed biannual assessments for 24 months; 58% presented to the ED for an assault-related injury and a comparison group comprised 42% presenting for other reasons. Measures assessed cannabis use, alcohol use, and loneliness. Using GEE models, we evaluated the relationships between social influences (peers, parents), substance use, and loneliness via longitudinal data, de-coupling within- and between-person effects. Men reported lower loneliness over time. At the between-person level, individuals with greater alcohol and cannabis use severity and negative peer influences had greater loneliness; positive parental influences were associated with less loneliness. At the within-person level, greater alcohol use severity, negative peer influences, and parental substance use corresponded to increases in loneliness; positive parental influences corresponded to decreases in loneliness. Youth with more severe alcohol and cannabis use had greater loneliness over time. Within individuals, peer and parental social influences were particularly salient markers of loneliness. An ED visit provides an opportunity for linkage to personalized, supportive interventions to curtail negative outcomes of substance use and loneliness.

Commentary: Reducing youth firearm violence and the associated health disparities requires enhanced surveillance and modern behavioral intervention strategies - a commentary on Bottiani et al. (2021).

Youth firearm injury is a worsening public health crisis, and the risks are not distributed evenly. Bottiani et al. skillfully explicated those health disparities, described sociological factors underlying them, and explored avenues for prevention. We supplement their analysis by detailing problems and solutions related to a critical barrier to firearm violence prevention - the nonexistence both of reliable 'gold standard' nonfatal firearm injury surveillance data, and systems for near real-time surveillance of firearm injuries at granular spatial scales that would enable to optimization of rapid response protocols and neighborhood-based prevention programs. We conclude with a discussion of modern, scalable, behavioral intervention approaches that could be leveraged to fill the largely absent evidence base resulting from the documented underfunding of youth firearm violence prevention research.

Michigan system for opioid overdose surveillance.

Community rapid response may reduce opioid overdose harms, but is hindered by the lack of timely data. To address this need, we created and evaluated the Michigan system for opioid overdose surveillance (SOS). SOS integrates suspected fatal overdose data from Medical Examiners (MEs), and suspected non-fatal overdoses (proxied by naloxone administration) from the Michigan Emergency Medical Services (EMS) into a web-based dashboard that was developed with stakeholder feedback. Authorised stakeholders can view approximate incident locations and automated spatiotemporal data summaries, while the general public can view county-level summaries. Following Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) surveillance system evaluation guidelines, we assessed simplicity, flexibility, data quality, acceptability, sensitivity, positive value positive (PVP), representativeness, timeliness and stability of SOS. Data are usually integrated into SOS 1-day postincident, and the interface is updated weekly for debugging and new feature addition, suggesting high timeliness, stability and flexibility. Regarding representativeness, SOS data cover 100% of EMS-based naloxone adminstrations in Michigan, and receives suspected fatal overdoses from MEs covering 79.1% of Michigan's population, but misses those receiving naloxone from non-EMS. PVP of the suspected fatal overdose indicator is nearly 80% across MEs. Because SOS uses pre-existing data, added burden on MEs/EMS is minimal, leading to high acceptability; there are over 300 authorised SOS stakeholders (~6 new registrations/week) as of this writing, suggesting high user acceptability. Using a collaborative, cross-sector approach we created a timely opioid overdose surveillance system that is flexible, acceptable, and is reasonably accurate and complete. Lessons learnt can aid other jurisdictions in creating analogous systems.

Alcohol and cannabis motives: Differences in daily motive endorsement on alcohol, cannabis, and alcohol/cannabis co-use days in a cannabis-using sample.

OBJECTIVE: Same day use of alcohol and cannabis is prevalent among emerging/young adults and increases the risk for negative consequences. Although motives for alcohol and cannabis use are well-documented, specific motives on co-use days are under-investigated. We examined differences in motives on single substance use (i.e., alcohol or cannabis) versus co-use days in a sample of primarily cannabis-using emerging/young adults. METHODS: Participants (N=97) aged 18-25 (Mage=22.2) were recruited from an urban Emergency Department (55.7% female, 46.4% African American, 57.7% public assistance) for a prospective daily diary study about risk behaviors. Participants received prompts for 28 daily text message assessments (up to 2716 surveys possible) of substance use and motives (social, enhancement, coping, conformity). We divided use days into three groups: alcohol use only (n=126), cannabis use only (n=805), and co-use (n=237). Using fixed effects regression modeling, we fit models to estimate within-person effects of alcohol and cannabis motives on day type (alcohol/cannabis co-use versus single use). RESULTS: In adjusted models, greater cannabis-related enhancement and social motives were associated with increased likelihood of co-use days compared to cannabis-only days. In contrast, greater alcohol-related social motives were associated with co-use days versus alcohol-only days in unadjusted, but not in adjusted models. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that cannabis use motives associated with increasing positive affect may be most compelling for those engaging in alcohol/cannabis use on a given day. Intervention programs for alcohol/cannabis use should address alcohol and cannabis use motives in relation to increasing positive affect and engaging in social situations.

Rates and correlates of risky firearm behaviors among adolescents and young adults treated in an urban emergency department.

Firearm violence is a leading cause of death for urban adolescents and young adults (A/YAs). Little is known about patterns of risky firearm behaviors (RFBs) that may increase firearm-related fatality and non-fatal injury risk. To inform prevention efforts, we examined the rates and correlates of RFBs, including firearm carriage in risky situations (e.g., while drunk/high), discharge in risky situations (e.g., fleeing police), and firearm aggression (e.g., firearm threats/use against a partner/non-partner), among a sample of A/YAs (age-16-29) seeking medical or injury related care (7/2017-6/2018) at a Level-1 urban Emergency Department (ED). In total, 1312 A/YAs completed the survey (mean-age 23.2; 29.6%-male; 50.5%-Black; 56.3%-public assistance), with 102 (7.8%) engaging in RFBs. Among those engaging in RFBs, 42% reported firearm ownership, 68.6% firearm carriage in high-risk situations, 39.2% firearm discharge in risky situations, and 41.2% reported partner/non-partner firearm aggression. Regression identified RFBs correlates, including older age (AOR = 1.09), male sex (AOR = 1.63), Black race/ethnicity (AOR = 2.01), substance misuse (AOR = 2.75), attitudes favoring firearm use/retaliation (AOR = 1.38), peer firearm ownership/carriage (AOR = 3.26), higher levels of community violence exposure (AOR = 1.05), and active parole/probation (AOR 2.38). Higher coping skills were protective for RFBs (AOR = 0.83). Overall, we found that A/YAs seeking urban ED treatment reported elevated RFB rates, emphasizing the need for novel prevention initiatives, especially those incorporating tailored content addressing substance use, retaliatory violence, and peer delinquency/norms, while enhancing self-efficacy for avoiding RFBs and providing access to external resources within a resiliency-based framework. Such prevention approaches may be a critical step towards addressing the public health problem of firearm violence. Primary Funding Sources: NIH/NIDA K23DA039341; NIH/NCATS UL1TR000433.

Longitudinal pathway from violence exposure to firearm carriage among adolescents: The role of future expectation.

INTRODUCTION: Exposure to violence is a risk factor for firearm carriage. Youth exposed to violence also have difficulty envisioning positive future outcomes (e.g., educational outcomes), which can increase the likelihood of firearm carriage over time. Researchers, however, have not yet examined whether changes in exposure to violence over time can influence the developmental trajectories of firearm carriage. To address this gap, we (1) examined the longitudinal association between exposure to violence and firearm carriage (grades 9 to 12) and then (2) examined whether changes in future expectations mediated this longitudinal association. METHOD: The longitudinal association between exposure to violence and firearm carriage through future expectations was examined among 850 adolescents from the Flint Adolescent Study. Participants were recruited from four high schools in a midwestern city in the United States. Parallel latent growth models and latent growth mediation models were estimated. RESULTS: A positive association was observed between the rate of change in exposure to violence and firearm carriage. Exposure to violence also indirectly increased the risk for firearm carriage over time by decreasing future expectation in the 9th grade. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the idea that helping youth develop positive attitude about educational success may help reduce firearm carriage. Increasing positive expectations about future may help prevent firearm carriage within the context of violence exposure.

Trajectories of Driving after Drinking among Marijuana-Using Youth in the Emergency Department: Substance Use, Mental Health, and Peer and Parental Influences.

Background: The psychosocial correlates and longitudinal trajectories of driving after drinking (DAD) among youth remain understudied in at-risk populations. Objectives: We investigated the relationships of DAD trajectories and negative peer and parental influences, substance use, and mental health among predominantly marijuana-using youth seeking emergency department (ED) treatment. Methods: Data were from a 2-year prospective cohort study of drug-using patients (97.4% used marijuana) ages 14-24 seeking ED care for assault injury, or as part of a non-assaulted comparison group. Validated surveys measured DAD behaviors and correlates at baseline, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Latent class growth analysis identified characteristic DAD trajectory groups; baseline predictors were analyzed descriptively and using multinomial logistic regression. Results: Three DAD trajectory groups were identified among driving-age youth (n = 580): no DAD (NDAD; 55.2%), low-steady (LDAD; 29.0%), and high-declining (HDAD; 15.9%). In unadjusted analyses, HDAD youth were older, but otherwise similar to other groups demographically. Compared to NDAD, LDAD and HDAD group members had higher rates of drug and alcohol use disorders (p < .001). Further, HDAD group members had higher rates of anxiety symptoms and were more likely to be diagnosed with PTSD or depression than NDAD or LDAD youth (p < .05). Negative peer and parent influences were significantly higher in progressively more severe trajectory groups (p < .01). Adjusted effects from the multinomial model were analogous for peer and parental influences and substance use disorders, but not mental health. Conclusion: DAD is strongly associated with negative social influences and substance use disorders among marijuana-using youth, reinforcing their importance when developing interventions.

Transitions into and out of post-traumatic stress among children involved in the child welfare system.

PURPOSE: To describe the transition patterns into and out of post-traumatic stress (PTS) for youth and identify social supports preceding these transitions. METHODS: We used inhomogeneous, continuous-time, 1Markov Chain models to model transitions in and out of PTS using data from Waves 1, 3, 4, and 5 of the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Wellbeing (NSCAW I)-a longitudinal study of children who first had contact with the child welfare system between 1999 and 2000. Our analytic sample contained 915 individuals aged 11-17 years. We analyzed data in 2020. RESULTS: Youth with stronger peer relationships were less likely to transition into PTS (HR: 0.82; 95% CI [0.70-0.96]), and these individuals were also more likely to transition out of PTS (HR: 1.21; 95% CI [1.04, 1.42]). Youth with adult support were less likely to transition into PTS at any given time interval (HR: 0.37; 95% CI [0.17-0.78]), but adult support was not associated with the transition out of PTS. CONCLUSIONS: Strengthening peer relationships may help at-risk children both avoid PTS altogether and recover from PTS after its onset. Promoting adult support, however, may only be most effective when attempting to prevent PTS-onset.

Serum NfL (Neurofilament Light Chain) Levels and Incident Stroke in Adults With Diabetes Mellitus.

Background and Purpose- Effective stroke prevention depends on accurate stroke risk prediction. We determined the discriminative ability of NfL (neurofilament light chain) levels for distinguishing between adults with diabetes mellitus who develop incident stroke and those who remain stroke free during a 7-year follow-up period. Methods- We performed a case-control study of participants selected from the previously completed ACCORD trial (Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes). Cases were all ACCORD subjects who were stroke free at enrollment and developed incident stroke during follow-up (n=113). Control subjects (n=250) were randomly selected ACCORD subjects who had no stroke events either before or after randomization. NfL was measured in baseline samples using Single Molecule Array technology (Quanterix). Results- Baseline NfL levels were higher in stroke subjects, compared to controls, after adjusting for age, race, blood pressure, weight, and the Framingham Stroke Risk Score. Relative to the subjects in the lowest quintile of NfL levels, the hazard ratios of incident stroke for subjects in the second to fifth quintiles were 3.91 (1.45-10.53), 4.05 (1.52-10.79), 5.63 (2.16-14.66), and 9.75 (3.84-27.71), respectively, after adjusting for race and Framingham Stroke Risk Score. Incorporating NfL levels into a predictive score that already included race and Framingham Stroke Risk Score increased the score's C statistic from 0.71 (95% CI, 0.66-0.77) to 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73-0.83), P<0.001. Older age, nonwhite race, higher systolic blood pressure, glomerular filtration rate <60, and higher hemoglobin A1C were independent predictors of serum NfL in this cohort but diastolic blood pressure, durations of hypertension or diabetes mellitus, and lipid levels were not. In total, cardiovascular disease risk factors explained 19.2% of the variability in baseline NfL levels. Conclusions- Serum NfL levels predict incident stroke and add considerably to the discriminatory power of the Framingham Stroke Risk Score in a cohort of middle-aged and older adults with diabetes mellitus.