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Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.
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Secuestro de Carbono , Carbono , Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Mapeo Geográfico , Plantas , Carbono/análisis , Carbono/metabolismo , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Secuestro de Carbono/fisiología , Estaciones del Año , Atmósfera/química , Océano Pacífico , Temperatura , Nitrógeno/metabolismo , Plantas/clasificación , Plantas/metabolismo , Medición de RiesgoRESUMEN
Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) has been proposed as a measure to enhance the carbon (C)-sequestration potential and fertility of soils. The effects of this practice on the soil phosphorus (P) pools and the general mechanisms affecting microbial P cycling, as well as plant P uptake are not well understood. Here, the impact of ERW on soil P availability and microbial P cycling functional groups and root P-acquisition traits were explored through a 2-year wollastonite field addition experiment in a tropical rubber plantation. The results show that ERW significantly increased soil microbial carbon-use efficiency and total P concentrations and indirectly increased soil P availability by enhancing organic P mobilization and mineralization of rhizosheath carboxylates and phosphatase, respectively. Also, ERW stimulated the activities of P-solubilizing (gcd, ppa and ppx) and mineralizing enzymes (phoADN and phnAPHLFXIM), thus contributing to the inorganic P solubilization and organic P mineralization. Accompanying the increase in soil P availability, the P-acquisition strategy of the rubber fine roots changed from do-it-yourself acquisition by roots to dependence on mycorrhizal collaboration and the release of root exudates. In addition, the direct effects of ERW on root P-acquisition traits (such as root diameter, specific root length, and mycorrhizal colonization rate) may also be related to changes in the pattern of belowground carbon investments in plants. Our study provides a new insight that ERW increases carbon-sequestration potential and P availability in tropical forests and profoundly affects belowground plant resource-use strategies.
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Fósforo , Raíces de Plantas , Silicatos , Microbiología del Suelo , Suelo , Fósforo/metabolismo , Suelo/química , Raíces de Plantas/metabolismo , Raíces de Plantas/crecimiento & desarrollo , Silicatos/metabolismo , Micorrizas/fisiología , Compuestos de Calcio , Carbono/metabolismoRESUMEN
Enhanced silicate rock weathering (ERW) is an emerging strategy for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere to mitigate anthropogenic climate change. ERW aims at promoting soil inorganic carbon sequestration by accelerating geochemical weathering processes. Theoretically, ERW may also impact soil organic carbon (SOC), the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems, but experimental evidence for this is largely lacking. Here, we conducted a 2-year field experiment in tropical rubber plantations in the southeast of China to evaluate the effects of wollastonite powder additions (0, 0.25, and 0.5 kg m-2) on both soil organic and inorganic carbon at 0-10 cm depth. We found that ERW significantly increased the concentration of SOC and HCO3 -, but the increases in SOC were four and eight times higher than that of HCO3 - with low- and high-level wollastonite applications. ERW had positive effects on the accrual of organic carbon in mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) and macroaggregate fractions, but not on particulate organic matter. Path analysis suggested that ERW increased MAOM mainly by increasing the release of Ca, Si, and Fe, and to a lesser extent by stimulating root growth and microbial-derived carbon inputs. Our study indicates that ERW with wollastonite can promote SOC sequestration in stable MOAM in surface soils through both the soil mineral carbon pump and microbial carbon pump. These effects may have been larger than the inorganic CDR during our experiment. We argue it is essential to account for the responses of SOC in the assessments of CDR by ERW.
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Secuestro de Carbono , Carbono , Bosques , Silicatos , Suelo , Suelo/química , Silicatos/química , Carbono/análisis , China , Compuestos de Calcio/química , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Minerales/químicaRESUMEN
Spatial redistribution of nutrients by atmospheric transport and deposition could theoretically act as a continental-scale mechanism which counteracts declines in soil fertility caused by nutrient lock-up in accumulating biomass in tropical forests in Central Africa. However, to what extent it affects carbon sinks in forests remains elusive. Here we use a terrestrial biosphere model to quantify the impact of changes in atmospheric nitrogen and phosphorus deposition on plant nutrition and biomass carbon sink at a typical lowland forest site in Central Africa. We find that the increase in nutrient deposition since the 1980s could have contributed to the carbon sink over the past four decades up to an extent which is similar to that from the combined effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change. Furthermore, we find that the modelled carbon sink responds to changes in phosphorus deposition, but less so to nitrogen deposition. The pronounced response of ecosystem productivity to changes in nutrient deposition illustrates a potential mechanism that could control carbon sinks in Central Africa. Monitoring the quantity and quality of nutrient deposition is needed in this region, given the changes in nutrient deposition due to human land use.
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Secuestro de Carbono , Ecosistema , Humanos , Árboles/fisiología , Fósforo , Bosques , Suelo , Nitrógeno , África Central , Clima TropicalRESUMEN
Global change ecology nowadays embraces ever-growing large observational datasets (big-data) and complex mathematical models that track hundreds of ecological processes (big-model). The rapid advancement of the big-data-big-model has reached its bottleneck: high computational requirements prevent further development of models that need to be integrated over long time-scales to simulate the distribution of ecosystems carbon and nutrient pools and fluxes. Here, we introduce a machine-learning acceleration (MLA) tool to tackle this grand challenge. We focus on the most resource-consuming step in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs): the equilibration of biogeochemical cycles (spin-up), a prerequisite that can take up to 98% of the computational time. Through three members of the ORCHIDEE TBM family part of the IPSL Earth System Model, including versions that describe the complex interactions between nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon that do not have any analytical solution for the spin-up, we show that an unoptimized MLA reduced the computation demand by 77%-80% for global studies via interpolating the equilibrated state of biogeochemical variables for a subset of model pixels. Despite small biases in the MLA-derived equilibrium, the resulting impact on the predicted regional carbon balance over recent decades is minor. We expect a one-order of magnitude lower computation demand by optimizing the choices of machine learning algorithms, their settings, and balancing the trade-off between quality of MLA predictions and need for TBM simulations for training data generation and bias reduction. Our tool is agnostic to gridded models (beyond TBMs), compatible with existing spin-up acceleration procedures, and opens the door to a wide variety of future applications, with complex non-linear models benefit most from the computational efficiency.
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Ecosistema , Modelos Teóricos , Carbono , Nitrógeno , Ciclo del CarbonoRESUMEN
Consistent information on the current elemental composition of vegetation at global scale and the variables that determine it is lacking. To fill this gap, we gathered a total of 30 912 georeferenced records on woody plants foliar concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) from published databases, and produced global maps of foliar N, P and K concentrations for woody plants using neural networks at a resolution of 1 km2 . We used data for climate, atmospheric deposition, soil and morphoclimatic groups to train the neural networks. Foliar N, P and K do not follow clear global latitudinal patterns but are consistent with the hypothesis of soil substrate age. We additionally built generalized linear mixed models to investigate the evolutionary history effect together with the effects of environmental effects. In this comparison, evolutionary history effects explained most of the variability in all cases (mostly > 60%). These results emphasize the determinant role of evolutionary history in foliar elemental composition, which should be incorporated in upcoming dynamic global vegetation models.
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Ecosistema , Hojas de la Planta , Bosques , Nitrógeno/análisis , Fósforo , Hojas de la Planta/química , SueloRESUMEN
A number of negative emission technologies (NETs) have been proposed to actively remove CO2 from the atmosphere, with enhanced silicate weathering (ESW) as a relatively new NET with considerable climate change mitigation potential. Models calibrated to ESW rates in lab experiments estimate the global potential for inorganic carbon sequestration by ESW at about 0.5-5 Gt CO2 year-1 , suggesting ESW could be an important component of the future NETs mix. In real soils, however, weathering rates may differ strongly from lab conditions. Research on natural weathering has shown that biota such as plants, microbes, and macro-invertebrates can strongly affect weathering rates, but biotic effects were excluded from most ESW lab assessments. Moreover, ESW may alter soil organic carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas emissions by influencing physicochemical and biological processes, which holds the potential to perpetuate even larger negative emissions. Here, we argue that it is likely that the climate change mitigation effect of ESW will be governed by biological processes, emphasizing the need to put these processes on the agenda of this emerging research field.
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Cambio Climático , Suelo , Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono , Secuestro de Carbono , Efecto Invernadero , SilicatosRESUMEN
The representation of phosphorus (P) cycling in global land models remains quite simplistic, particularly on soil inorganic phosphorus. For example, sorption and desorption remain unresolved and their dependence on soil physical and chemical properties is ignored. Empirical parameter values are usually based on expert knowledge or data from few sites with debatable global representativeness in most global land models. To overcome these issues, we compiled from data of inorganic soil P fractions and calculated the fraction of added P remaining in soil solution over time of 147 soil samples to optimize three parameters in a model of soil inorganic P dynamics. The calibrated model performed well (r 2 > 0.7 for 122 soil samples). Model parameters vary by several orders of magnitude, and correlate with soil P fractions of different inorganic pools, soil organic carbon and oxalate extractable metal oxide concentrations among the soil samples. The modeled bioavailability of soil P depends on, not only, the desorption rates of labile and sorbed pool, inorganic phosphorus fractions, the slope of P sorbed against solution P concentration, but also on the ability of biological uptake to deplete solution P concentration and the time scale. The model together with the empirical relationships of model parameters on soil properties can be used to quantify bioavailability of soil inorganic P on various timescale especially when coupled within global land models.
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The rising atmospheric CO2 concentration leads to a CO2 fertilization effect on plants-that is, increased photosynthetic uptake of CO2 by leaves and enhanced water-use efficiency (WUE). Yet, the resulting net impact of CO2 fertilization on plant growth and soil moisture (SM) savings at large scale is poorly understood. Drylands provide a natural experimental setting to detect the CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth since foliage amount, plant water-use and photosynthesis are all tightly coupled in water-limited ecosystems. A long-term change in the response of leaf area index (LAI, a measure of foliage amount) to changes in SM is likely to stem from changing water demand of primary productivity in water-limited ecosystems and is a proxy for changes in WUE. Using 34-year satellite observations of LAI and SM over tropical and subtropical drylands, we identify that a 1% increment in SM leads to 0.15% (±0.008, 95% confidence interval) and 0.51% (±0.01, 95% confidence interval) increments in LAI during 1982-1998 and 1999-2015, respectively. The increasing response of LAI to SM has contributed 7.2% (±3.0%, 95% confidence interval) to total dryland greening during 1999-2015 compared to 1982-1998. The increasing response of LAI to SM is consistent with the CO2 fertilization effect on WUE in water-limited ecosystems, indicating that a given amount of SM has sustained greater amounts of photosynthetic foliage over time. The LAI responses to changes in SM from seven dynamic global vegetation models are not always consistent with observations, highlighting the need for improved process knowledge of terrestrial ecosystem responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration.
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Dióxido de Carbono , Ecosistema , Dióxido de Carbono/análisis , Fertilización , Fotosíntesis , SueloRESUMEN
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a key option for removing CO2 from the atmosphere over time to achieve climate mitigation. However, an overlooked impact of BECCS is the amount of nutrients required to sustain the production. Here, we use an observation-driven approach to estimate the future bioenergy biomass production for land-use scenarios maximizing BECCS and the pertaining nutrient requirements. The projected global biomass production during the 21st century is comparable to the CO2 removal target for 2 °C warming scenarios. However, 9-19% of this future production hinges on agrotechnology improvement, which remains uncertain. Additional nutrients from fertilizers, corresponding to 56.8 ± 6.1% of the present-day agricultural fertilizer, will be needed to replenish the nutrients removed in harvested biomass at the end of the century, resulting in additional costs and greenhouse gas emissions. Our study reveals the nutrient challenges associated with BECCS and calls for additional management efforts to grow bioenergy crops in a sustainable way.
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Productos Agrícolas , Fertilizantes , Agricultura , Biomasa , Carbono , Fertilizantes/análisisRESUMEN
First-order organic matter decomposition models are used within most Earth System Models (ESMs) to project future global carbon cycling; these models have been criticized for not accurately representing mechanisms of soil organic carbon (SOC) stabilization and SOC response to climate change. New soil biogeochemical models have been developed, but their evaluation is limited to observations from laboratory incubations or few field experiments. Given the global scope of ESMs, a comprehensive evaluation of such models is essential using in situ observations of a wide range of SOC stocks over large spatial scales before their introduction to ESMs. In this study, we collected a set of in situ observations of SOC, litterfall and soil properties from 206 sites covering different forest and soil types in Europe and China. These data were used to calibrate the model MIMICS (The MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization model), which we compared to the widely used first-order model CENTURY. We show that, compared to CENTURY, MIMICS more accurately estimates forest SOC concentrations and the sensitivities of SOC to variation in soil temperature, clay content and litter input. The ratios of microbial biomass to total SOC predicted by MIMICS agree well with independent observations from globally distributed forest sites. By testing different hypotheses regarding (using alternative process representations) the physicochemical constraints on SOC deprotection and microbial turnover in MIMICS, the errors of simulated SOC concentrations across sites were further decreased. We show that MIMICS can resolve the dominant mechanisms of SOC decomposition and stabilization and that it can be a reliable tool for predictions of terrestrial SOC dynamics under future climate change. It also allows us to evaluate at large scale the rapidly evolving understanding of SOC formation and stabilization based on laboratory and limited filed observation.
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The first generation of forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments has successfully provided deeper understanding about how forests respond to an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Located in aggrading stands in the temperate zone, they have provided a strong foundation for testing critical assumptions in terrestrial biosphere models that are being used to project future interactions between forest productivity and the atmosphere, despite the limited inference space of these experiments with regards to the range of global ecosystems. Now, a new generation of FACE experiments in mature forests in different biomes and over a wide range of climate space and biodiversity will significantly expand the inference space. These new experiments are: EucFACE in a mature Eucalyptus stand on highly weathered soil in subtropical Australia; AmazonFACE in a highly diverse, primary rainforest in Brazil; BIFoR-FACE in a 150-yr-old deciduous woodland stand in central England; and SwedFACE proposed in a hemiboreal, Pinus sylvestris stand in Sweden. We now have a unique opportunity to initiate a model-data interaction as an integral part of experimental design and to address a set of cross-site science questions on topics including responses of mature forests; interactions with temperature, water stress, and phosphorus limitation; and the influence of biodiversity.
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Dióxido de Carbono/farmacología , Eucalyptus/fisiología , Modelos Teóricos , Árboles/fisiología , Atmósfera , Australia , Biodiversidad , Brasil , Clima , Deshidratación , Inglaterra , Eucalyptus/efectos de los fármacos , Bosques , Fósforo/deficiencia , Bosque Lluvioso , Suelo , Árboles/efectos de los fármacosRESUMEN
Numerous drivers such as farming practices, erosion, land-use change, and soil biogeochemical background, determine the global spatial distribution of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils. Here, we revised an approach published earlier (called here GPASOIL-v0), in which several global datasets describing these drivers were combined with a process model for soil P dynamics to reconstruct the past and current distribution of P in cropland and grassland soils. The objective of the present update, called GPASOIL-v1, is to incorporate recent advances in process understanding about soil inorganic P dynamics, in datasets to describe the different drivers, and in regional soil P measurements for benchmarking. We trace the impact of the update on the reconstructed soil P. After the update we estimate a global averaged inorganic labile P of 187 kgP ha-1 for cropland and 91 kgP ha-1 for grassland in 2018 for the top 0-0.3 m soil layer, but these values are sensitive to the mineralization rates chosen for the organic P pools. Uncertainty in the driver estimates lead to coefficients of variation of 0.22 and 0.54 for cropland and grassland, respectively. This work makes the methods for simulating the agricultural soil P maps more transparent and reproducible than previous estimates, and increases the confidence in the new estimates, while the evaluation against regional dataset still suggests rooms for further improvement.
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During extensive periods without rain, known as dry-downs, decreasing soil moisture (SM) induces plant water stress at the point when it limits evapotranspiration, defining a critical SM threshold (θcrit). Better quantification of θcrit is needed for improving future projections of climate and water resources, food production, and ecosystem vulnerability. Here, we combine systematic satellite observations of the diurnal amplitude of land surface temperature (dLST) and SM during dry-downs, corroborated by in-situ data from flux towers, to generate the observation-based global map of θcrit. We find an average global θcrit of 0.19 m3/m3, varying from 0.12 m3/m3 in arid ecosystems to 0.26 m3/m3 in humid ecosystems. θcrit simulated by Earth System Models is overestimated in dry areas and underestimated in wet areas. The global observed pattern of θcrit reflects plant adaptation to soil available water and atmospheric demand. Using explainable machine learning, we show that aridity index, leaf area and soil texture are the most influential drivers. Moreover, we show that the annual fraction of days with water stress, when SM stays below θcrit, has increased in the past four decades. Our results have important implications for understanding the inception of water stress in models and identifying SM tipping points.
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Ecosistema , Suelo , Agua , Suelo/química , Agua/metabolismo , Temperatura , Transpiración de Plantas/fisiología , Plantas/metabolismo , Deshidratación , Hojas de la Planta/fisiología , Clima , Lluvia , Aprendizaje AutomáticoRESUMEN
Global estimates of the size, distribution, and vulnerability of soil inorganic carbon (SIC) remain largely unquantified. By compiling 223,593 field-based measurements and developing machine-learning models, we report that global soils store 2305 ± 636 (±1 SD) billion tonnes of carbon as SIC over the top 2-meter depth. Under future scenarios, soil acidification associated with nitrogen additions to terrestrial ecosystems will reduce global SIC (0.3 meters) up to 23 billion tonnes of carbon over the next 30 years, with India and China being the most affected. Our synthesis of present-day land-water carbon inventories and inland-water carbonate chemistry reveals that at least 1.13 ± 0.33 billion tonnes of inorganic carbon is lost to inland-waters through soils annually, resulting in large but overlooked impacts on atmospheric and hydrospheric carbon dynamics.
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The importance of phosphorus (P) in regulating ecosystem responses to climate change has fostered P-cycle implementation in land surface models, but their CO2 effects predictions have not been evaluated against measurements. Here, we perform a data-driven model evaluation where simulations of eight widely used P-enabled models were confronted with observations from a long-term free-air CO2 enrichment experiment in a mature, P-limited Eucalyptus forest. We show that most models predicted the correct sign and magnitude of the CO2 effect on ecosystem carbon (C) sequestration, but they generally overestimated the effects on plant C uptake and growth. We identify leaf-to-canopy scaling of photosynthesis, plant tissue stoichiometry, plant belowground C allocation, and the subsequent consequences for plant-microbial interaction as key areas in which models of ecosystem C-P interaction can be improved. Together, this data-model intercomparison reveals data-driven insights into the performance and functionality of P-enabled models and adds to the existing evidence that the global CO2-driven carbon sink is overestimated by models.
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Ciclo del Carbono , Dióxido de Carbono , Eucalyptus , Bosques , Fósforo , Eucalyptus/metabolismo , Dióxido de Carbono/metabolismo , Fósforo/metabolismo , Fotosíntesis , Cambio Climático , Ecosistema , Carbono/metabolismo , Modelos Teóricos , Secuestro de CarbonoRESUMEN
Denitrification and leaching nitrogen (N) losses are poorly constrained in Earth System Models (ESMs). Here, we produce a global map of natural soil 15N abundance and quantify soil denitrification N loss for global natural ecosystems using an isotope-benchmarking method. We show an overestimation of denitrification by almost two times in the 13 ESMs of the Sixth Phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6, 73 ± 31 Tg N yr-1), compared with our estimate of 38 ± 11 Tg N yr-1, which is rooted in isotope mass balance. Moreover, we find a negative correlation between the sensitivity of plant production to rising carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and denitrification in boreal regions, revealing that overestimated denitrification in ESMs would translate to an exaggeration of N limitation on the responses of plant growth to elevated CO2. Our study highlights the need of improving the representation of the denitrification in ESMs and better assessing the effects of terrestrial ecosystems on CO2 mitigation.
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Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is considered to be a key technology for removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, large-scale bioenergy crop cultivation results in land cover changes and activates biophysical effects on climate, with earth's water recycling altered and energy budget re-adjusted. Here, we use a coupled atmosphere-land model with explicit representations of high-transpiration woody (i.e., eucalypt) and low-transpiration herbaceous (i.e., switchgrass) bioenergy crops to investigate the range of impact of large-scale rainfed bioenergy crop cultivation on the global water cycle and atmospheric water recycling. We find that global land precipitation increases under BECCS scenarios, due to enhanced evapotranspiration and inland moisture advection. Despite enhanced evapotranspiration, soil moisture decreases only slightly, due to increased precipitation and reduced runoff. Our results indicate that, at the global scale, the water consumption by bioenergy crop growth would be partially compensated by atmospheric feedbacks. Thus, to support more effective climate mitigation policies, a more comprehensive assessment, including the biophysical effects of bioenergy cultivation, is highly recommended.
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The Australian continent contributes substantially to the year-to-year variability of the global terrestrial carbon dioxide (CO2) sink. However, the scarcity of in situ observations in remote areas prevents the deciphering of processes that force the CO2 flux variability. In this study, by examining atmospheric CO2 measurements from satellites in the period 2009-2018, we find recurrent end-of-dry-season CO2 pulses over the Australian continent. These pulses largely control the year-to-year variability of Australia's CO2 balance. They cause two to three times larger seasonal variations compared with previous top-down inversions and bottom-up estimates. The pulses occur shortly after the onset of rainfall and are driven by enhanced soil respiration preceding photosynthetic uptake in Australia's semiarid regions. The suggested continental-scale relevance of soil-rewetting processes has substantial implications for our understanding and modeling of global climate-carbon cycle feedbacks.