Milk yield prediction in Friesian cows using linear and flexible discriminant analysis under assumptions violations.

BACKGROUND: The application of novel technologies is now widely used to assist in making optimal decisions. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and flexible discriminant analysis (FDA) in classifying and predicting Friesian cattle's milk production into low ([Formula: see text]4500 kg), medium (4500-7500 kg), and high ([Formula: see text]7500 kg) categories. A total of 3793 lactation records from cows calved between 2009 and 2020 were collected to examine some predictors such as age at first calving (AFC), lactation order (LO), days open (DO), days in milk (DIM), dry period (DP), calving season (CFS), 305-day milk yield (305-MY), calving interval (CI), and total breeding per conception (TBRD). RESULTS: The comparison between LDA and FDA models was based on the significance of coefficients, total accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and F1-score. The LDA results revealed that DIM and 305-MY were the significant (P < 0.001) contributors for data classification, while the FDA was a lactation order. Classification accuracy results showed that the FDA model performed better than the LDA model in expressing accuracies of correctly classified cases as well as overall classification accuracy of milk yield. The FDA model outperformed LDA in both accuracy and F1-score. It achieved an accuracy of 82% compared to LDA's 71%. Similarly, the F1-score improved from a range of 0.667 to 0.79 for LDA to a higher range of 0.81 to 0.83 for FDA. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study demonstrated that FDA was more resistant than LDA in case of assumption violations. Furthermore, the current study showed the feasibility and efficacy of LDA and FDA in interpreting and predicting livestock datasets.

Comparison of machine learning models for bluetongue risk prediction: a seroprevalence study on small ruminants.

BACKGROUND: Bluetongue (BT) is a disease of concern to animal breeders, so the question on their minds is whether they can predict the risk of the disease before it occurs. The main objective of this study is to enhance the accuracy of BT risk prediction by relying on machine learning (ML) approaches to help in fulfilling this inquiry. Several risk factors of BT that affect the occurrence and magnitude of animal infection with the virus have been reported globally. Additionally, risk factors, such as sex, age, species, and season, unevenly affect animal health and welfare. Therefore, the seroprevalence study data of 233 apparently healthy animals (125 sheep and 108 goats) from five different provinces in Egypt were used to analyze and compare the performance of the algorithms in predicting BT risk. RESULTS: Logistic regression (LR), decision tree (DT), random forest (RF), and a feedforward artificial neural network (ANN) were used to develop predictive BT risk models and compare their performance to the base model (LR). Model performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), accuracy, true positive rate (TPR), false positive rate (FPR), false negative rate (FNR), precision, and F1 score. The results indicated that RF performed better than other models, with an AUC score of 81%, ANN of 79.6%, and DT of 72.85%. In terms of performance and prediction, LR showed a much lower value (AUC = 69%). Upon further observation of the results, it was discovered that age and season were the most important predictor variables reported in classification and prediction. CONCLUSION: The findings of this study can be utilized to predict and control BT risk factors in sheep and goats, with better diagnostic discrimination in terms of accuracy, TPR, FNR, FPR, and precision of ML models over traditional and commonly used LR models. Our findings advocate that the implementation of ML algorithms, mainly RF, in farm decision making and prediction is a promising technique for analyzing cross-section studies, providing adequate predictive power and significant competence in identifying and ranking predictors representing potential risk factors for BT.