Tropical forests are approaching critical temperature thresholds.

The critical temperature beyond which photosynthetic machinery in tropical trees begins to fail averages approximately 46.7 °C (Tcrit)1. However, it remains unclear whether leaf temperatures experienced by tropical vegetation approach this threshold or soon will under climate change. Here we found that pantropical canopy temperatures independently triangulated from individual leaf thermocouples, pyrgeometers and remote sensing (ECOSTRESS) have midday peak temperatures of approximately 34 °C during dry periods, with a long high-temperature tail that can exceed 40 °C. Leaf thermocouple data from multiple sites across the tropics suggest that even within pixels of moderate temperatures, upper canopy leaves exceed Tcrit 0.01% of the time. Furthermore, upper canopy leaf warming experiments (+2, 3 and 4 °C in Brazil, Puerto Rico and Australia, respectively) increased leaf temperatures non-linearly, with peak leaf temperatures exceeding Tcrit 1.3% of the time (11% for more than 43.5 °C, and 0.3% for more than 49.9 °C). Using an empirical model incorporating these dynamics (validated with warming experiment data), we found that tropical forests can withstand up to a 3.9 ± 0.5 °C increase in air temperatures before a potential tipping point in metabolic function, but remaining uncertainty in the plasticity and range of Tcrit in tropical trees and the effect of leaf death on tree death could drastically change this prediction. The 4.0 °C estimate is within the 'worst-case scenario' (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) of climate change predictions2 for tropical forests and therefore it is still within our power to decide (for example, by not taking the RCP 6.0 or 8.5 route) the fate of these critical realms of carbon, water and biodiversity3,4.

The magnitude and pace of photosynthetic recovery after wildfire in California ecosystems.

Wildfire modifies the short- and long-term exchange of carbon between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere, with impacts on ecosystem services such as carbon uptake. Dry western US forests historically experienced low-intensity, frequent fires, with patches across the landscape occupying different points in the fire-recovery trajectory. Contemporary perturbations, such as recent severe fires in California, could shift the historic stand-age distribution and impact the legacy of carbon uptake on the landscape. Here, we combine flux measurements of gross primary production (GPP) and chronosequence analysis using satellite remote sensing to investigate how the last century of fires in California impacted the dynamics of ecosystem carbon uptake on the fire-affected landscape. A GPP recovery trajectory curve of more than five thousand fires in forest ecosystems since 1919 indicated that fire reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text]([Formula: see text]) in the first year after fire, with average recovery to prefire conditions after [Formula: see text] y. The largest fires in forested ecosystems reduced GPP by [Formula: see text] g C m[Formula: see text] y[Formula: see text] (n = 401) and took more than two decades to recover. Recent increases in fire severity and recovery time have led to nearly [Formula: see text] MMT CO[Formula: see text] (3-y rolling mean) in cumulative forgone carbon uptake due to the legacy of fires on the landscape, complicating the challenge of maintaining California's natural and working lands as a net carbon sink. Understanding these changes is paramount to weighing the costs and benefits associated with fuels management and ecosystem management for climate change mitigation.

Impacts of the 2012-2015 Californian drought on carbon, water and energy fluxes in the Californian Sierras: Results from an imaging spectrometry-constrained terrestrial biosphere model.

Accurate descriptions of current ecosystem composition are essential for improving terrestrial biosphere model predictions of how ecosystems are responding to climate variability and change. This study investigates how imaging spectrometry-derived ecosystem composition can constrain and improve terrestrial biosphere model predictions of regional-scale carbon, water and energy fluxes. Incorporating imaging spectrometry-derived composition of five plant functional types (Grasses/Shrubs, Oaks/Western Hardwoods, Western Pines, Fir/Cedar and High-elevation Pines) into the Ecosystem Demography (ED2) terrestrial biosphere model improves predictions of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across four flux towers of the Southern Sierra Critical Zone Observatory (SSCZO) spanning a 2250 m elevational gradient in the western Sierra Nevada. NEP and GPP root-mean-square-errors were reduced by 23%-82% and 19%-89%, respectively, and water flux predictions improved at the mid-elevation pine (Soaproot), fir/cedar (P301) and high-elevation pine (Shorthair) flux tower sites, but not at the oak savanna (San Joaquin Experimental Range [SJER]) site. These improvements in carbon and water predictions are similar to those achieved with model initializations using ground-based inventory composition. The imaging spectrometry-constrained ED2 model was then used to predict carbon, water and energy fluxes and above-ground biomass (AGB) dynamics over a 737 km2 region to gain insight into the regional ecosystem impacts of the 2012-2015 Californian drought. The analysis indicates that the drought reduced regional NEP, GPP and transpiration by 83%, 40% and 33%, respectively, with the largest reductions occurring in the functionally diverse, high basal area mid-elevation forests. This was accompanied by a 54% decline in AGB growth in 2012, followed by a marked increase (823%) in AGB mortality in 2014, reflecting an approximately 10-fold increase in per capita tree mortality from ~55 trees km-2  year-1 in 2010-2011, to ~535 trees km-2  year-1 in 2014. These findings illustrate how imaging spectrometry estimates of ecosystem composition can constrain and improve terrestrial biosphere model predictions of regional carbon, water, and energy fluxes, and biomass dynamics.

Using remote sensing to quantify the additional climate benefits of California forest carbon offset projects.

Nature-based climate solutions are a vital component of many climate mitigation strategies, including California's, which aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045. Most carbon offsets in California's cap-and-trade program come from improved forest management (IFM) projects. Since 2012, various landowners have set up IFM projects following the California Air Resources Board's IFM protocol. As many of these projects approach their 10th year, we now have the opportunity to assess their effectiveness, identify best practices, and suggest improvements toward future protocol revisions. In this study, we used remote sensing-based datasets to evaluate the carbon trends and harvest histories of 37 IFM projects in California. Despite some current limitations and biases, these datasets can be used to quantify carbon accumulation and harvest rates in offset project lands relative to nearby similar "control" lands before and after the projects began. Five lines of evidence suggest that the carbon accumulated in offset projects to date has generally not been additional to what might have otherwise occurred: (1) most forests in northwestern California have been accumulating carbon since at least the mid-1980s and continue to accumulate carbon, whether enrolled in offset projects or not; (2) harvest rates were high in large timber company project lands before IFM initiation, suggesting they are earning carbon credits for forests in recovery; (3) projects are often located on lands with higher densities of low-timber-value species; (4) carbon accumulation rates have not yet increased on lands that enroll as offset projects, relative to their pre-enrollment levels; and (5) harvest rates have not decreased on most project lands since offset project initiation. These patterns suggest that the current protocol should be improved to robustly measure and reward additionality. In general, our framework of geospatial analyses offers an important and independent means to evaluate the effectiveness of the carbon offsets program, especially as these data products continue improving and as offsets receive attention as a climate mitigation strategy.

Warming increased bark beetle-induced tree mortality by 30% during an extreme drought in California.

Quantifying the responses of forest disturbances to climate warming is critical to our understanding of carbon cycles and energy balances of the Earth system. The impact of warming on bark beetle outbreaks is complex as multiple drivers of these events may respond differently to warming. Using a novel model of bark beetle biology and host tree interactions, we assessed how contemporary warming affected western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis) populations and mortality of its host, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), during an extreme drought in the Sierra Nevada, California, United States. When compared with the field data, our model captured the western pine beetle flight timing and rates of ponderosa pine mortality observed during the drought. In assessing the influence of temperature on western pine beetles, we found that contemporary warming increased the development rate of the western pine beetle and decreased the overwinter mortality rate of western pine beetle larvae leading to increased population growth during periods of lowered tree defense. We attribute a 29.9% (95% CI: 29.4%-30.2%) increase in ponderosa pine mortality during drought directly to increases in western pine beetle voltinism (i.e., associated with increased development rates of western pine beetle) and, to a much lesser extent, reductions in overwintering mortality. These findings, along with other studies, suggest each degree (°C) increase in temperature may have increased the number of ponderosa pine killed by upwards of 35%-40% °C-1 if the effects of compromised tree defenses (15%-20%) and increased western pine beetle populations (20%) are additive. Due to the warming ability to considerably increase mortality through the mechanism of bark beetle populations, models need to consider climate's influence on both host tree stress and the bark beetle population dynamics when determining future levels of tree mortality.

Changes in tree drought sensitivity provided early warning signals to the California drought and forest mortality event.

Climate warming in recent decades has negatively impacted forest health in the western United States. Here, we report on potential early warning signals (EWS) for drought-related mortality derived from measurements of tree-ring growth (ring width index; RWI) and carbon isotope discrimination (∆13 C), primarily focused on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Sampling was conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, near the epicenter of drought severity and mortality associated with the 2012-2015 California drought and concurrent outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis). At this site, we found that widespread mortality was presaged by five decades of increasing sensitivity (i.e., increased explained variation) of both tree growth and ∆13 C to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We hypothesized that increasing sensitivity of tree growth and ∆13 C to hydroclimate constitute EWS that indicate an increased likelihood of widespread forest mortality caused by direct and indirect effects of drought. We then tested these EWS in additional ponderosa pine-dominated forests that experienced varying mortality rates associated with the same California drought event. In general, drier sites showed increasing sensitivity of RWI to PDSI over the last century, as well as higher mortality following the California drought event compared to wetter sites. Two sites displayed evidence that thinning or fire events that reduced stand basal area effectively reversed the trend of increasing hydroclimate sensitivity. These comparisons indicate that reducing competition for soil water and/or decreasing bark beetle host tree density via forest management-particularly in drier regions-may buffer these forests against drought stress and associated mortality risk. EWS such as these could provide land managers more time to mitigate the extent or severity of forest mortality in advance of droughts. Substantial efforts at deploying additional dendrochronological research in concert with remote sensing and forest modeling will aid in forecasting of forest responses to continued climate warming.

Accurate tracking of forest activity key to multi-jurisdictional management goals: A case study in California.

An essential component of sustainable forest management is accurate monitoring of forest activities. Although monitoring efforts have generally increased for many forests throughout the world, in practice, effective monitoring is complex. Determining the magnitude and location of progress towards sustainability targets can be challenging due to diverse forest operations across multiple jurisdictions, the lack of data standardization, and discrepancies between field inspections and remotely-sensed records. In this work, we used California as a multijurisdictional case study to explore these problems and develop an approach that broadly informs forest monitoring strategies. The State of California recently entered into a shared stewardship agreement with the US Forest Service (USFS) and set a goal to jointly treat one million acres of forest and rangeland annually by 2025. Currently, however, federal and state forest management datasets are disjoint. This work addresses three barriers stymying the use of federal and state archival records to assess management goals. These barriers are: 1) current databases from different jurisdictions have not been combined due to their distinct data collection processes and internal structures; 2) datasets have not been comprehensively analyzed, despite the need to understand the extent of previous treatments as well as the rate of current activity; and 3) the spatial accuracy of archival datasets has not been evaluated against remotely-sensed data. To reduce these barriers, we first aggregated existing archival forest management records between 1984 and 2019 from the USFS' Forest Activity Tracking System (FACTS) and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE) using a qualitative scalar of treatment intensity. Combined FACTS and CAL FIRE completed footprint acres - defined as unique areas of land where a treatment was completed at any time since 1984 - have decreased since a peak in 2008. At most, 300,000 footprint acres are completed each year, 30% of the million-acre goal. Prescribed fires - defined as direct burning operations - have risen over time, according to the FACTS hazardous fuels dataset but prescribed fire records in CAL FIRE's dataset have rapidly increased since 2016. We also refined the spatial and temporal detail of the aggregated management record using the Continuous Change Detection and Classification algorithm on satellite remote sensing data to produce a state-wide time series map of harvest disturbances. A comparison of the algorithm's refined data to the archival record potentially suggests over-reporting in both FACTS and CAL FIRE's archival datasets. Our integrated dataset provides a better assessment of current treatments and the path towards the 1-million-acre a year goal. The refined dataset leverages the strengths of complementary, albeit imperfect, monitoring strategies from archives and remotely-sensed detection.

COSORE: A community database for continuous soil respiration and other soil-atmosphere greenhouse gas flux data.

Globally, soils store two to three times as much carbon as currently resides in the atmosphere, and it is critical to understand how soil greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and uptake will respond to ongoing climate change. In particular, the soil-to-atmosphere CO2 flux, commonly though imprecisely termed soil respiration (RS ), is one of the largest carbon fluxes in the Earth system. An increasing number of high-frequency RS measurements (typically, from an automated system with hourly sampling) have been made over the last two decades; an increasing number of methane measurements are being made with such systems as well. Such high frequency data are an invaluable resource for understanding GHG fluxes, but lack a central database or repository. Here we describe the lightweight, open-source COSORE (COntinuous SOil REspiration) database and software, that focuses on automated, continuous and long-term GHG flux datasets, and is intended to serve as a community resource for earth sciences, climate change syntheses and model evaluation. Contributed datasets are mapped to a single, consistent standard, with metadata on contributors, geographic location, measurement conditions and ancillary data. The design emphasizes the importance of reproducibility, scientific transparency and open access to data. While being oriented towards continuously measured RS , the database design accommodates other soil-atmosphere measurements (e.g. ecosystem respiration, chamber-measured net ecosystem exchange, methane fluxes) as well as experimental treatments (heterotrophic only, etc.). We give brief examples of the types of analyses possible using this new community resource and describe its accompanying R software package.

Hydraulic redistribution affects modeled carbon cycling via soil microbial activity and suppressed fire.

Hydraulic redistribution (HR) of water from moist to drier soils, through plant roots, occurs world-wide in seasonally dry ecosystems. Although the influence of HR on landscape hydrology and plant water use has been amply demonstrated, HR's effects on microbe-controlled processes sensitive to soil moisture, including carbon and nutrient cycling at ecosystem scales, remain difficult to observe in the field and have not been integrated into a predictive framework. We incorporated a representation of HR into the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) and found the new model improved predictions of water, energy, and system-scale carbon fluxes observed by eddy covariance at four seasonally dry yet ecologically diverse temperate and tropical AmeriFlux sites. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were differentially stimulated by upward HR, resulting at times in increased plant demand outstripping increased nutrient supply. Modeled plant productivity and microbial activities were diminished by downward HR. Overall, inclusion of HR tended to increase modeled annual ecosystem uptake of CO2 (or reduce annual CO2 release to the atmosphere). Moreover, engagement of CLM4.5's ground-truthed fire module indicated that though HR increased modeled fuel load at all four sites, upward HR also moistened surface soil and hydrated vegetation sufficiently to limit the modeled spread of dry season fire and concomitant very large CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. Historically, fire has been a dominant ecological force in many seasonally dry ecosystems, and intensification of soil drought and altered precipitation regimes are expected for seasonally dry ecosystems in the future. HR may play an increasingly important role mitigating development of extreme soil water potential gradients and associated limitations on plant and soil microbial activities, and may inhibit the spread of fire in seasonally dry ecosystems.

The diagnostic value of Rosemont and Japanese diagnostic criteria for 'indeterminate', 'suggestive', 'possible' and 'early' chronic pancreatitis.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal data are lacking to support consensus criteria for diagnosing early chronic pancreatitis. METHODS: Retrospective single centre study of the initial evidence for chronic pancreatitis (CP), with reassessment after follow-up (January 2003-November 2016). RESULTS: 807 patients were previously diagnosed with chronic pancreatitis. This diagnosis was rejected in 118 patients: 52 had another pathology altogether, the remaining 66 patients formed the study population. 38 patients with 'normal' imaging were reclassified as chronic abdominal pain syndrome (CAPS), and 28 patients had minimal change features of CP on EUS (MCEUS) but never progressed. Strict application of the Japanese diagnostic criteria would diagnose only two patients with early CP and eleven as possible CP. Patients were more likely to have MCEUS if the EUS was performed within 12 months of an attack of acute pancreatitis. 40 patients with MCEUS were identified, including an additional 12 who progressed to definite CP after a median of 30 (18.75-36.5) months. Those continuing to consume excess alcohol and/or continued smoking were significantly more likely to progress. Those who progressed were more likely to develop pancreatic exocrine insufficiency, require pancreatic surgery and had higher mortality. CONCLUSION: There needs to be more stringent application of the systems used for diagnosing chronic pancreatitis with revision of the current terminology 'indeterminate', 'suggestive', 'possible', and 'early' chronic pancreatitis. All patients with MCEUS features of CP require ongoing clinical follow up of at least 30 months and all patients with these features should be strongly counselled regarding smoking cessation and abstinence from alcohol.

Using imaging spectroscopy to detect variation in terrestrial ecosystem productivity across a water-stressed landscape.

A central challenge to understanding how climate anomalies, such as drought and heatwaves, impact the terrestrial carbon cycle, is quantification and scaling of spatial and temporal variation in ecosystem gross primary productivity (GPP). Existing empirical and model-based satellite broadband spectra-based products have been shown to miss critical variation in GPP. Here, we evaluate the potential of high spectral resolution (10 nm) shortwave (400-2,500 nm) imagery to better detect spatial and temporal variations in GPP across a range of ecosystems, including forests, grassland-savannas, wetlands, and shrublands in a water-stressed region. Estimates of GPP from eddy covariance observations were compared against airborne hyperspectral imagery, collected across California during the 2013-2014 HyspIRI airborne preparatory campaign. Observations from 19 flux towers across 23 flight campaigns (102 total image-flux tower pairs) showed GPP to be strongly correlated to a suite of spectral wavelengths and band ratios associated with foliar physiology and chemistry. A partial least squares regression (PLSR) modeling approach was then used to predict GPP with higher validation accuracy (adjusted R2  = 0.71) and low bias (0.04) compared to existing broadband approaches (e.g., adjusted R2  = 0.68 and bias = -5.71 with the Sims et al. model). Significant wavelengths contributing to the PLSR include those previously shown to coincide with Rubisco (wavelengths 1,680, 1,740, and 2,290 nm) and Vcmax (wavelengths 1,680, 1,722, 1,732, 1,760, and 2,300 nm). These results provide strong evidence that advances in satellite spectral resolution offer significant promise for improved satellite-based monitoring of GPP variability across a diverse range of terrestrial ecosystems.

Assessing the interplay between canopy energy balance and photosynthesis with cellulose δ18O: large-scale patterns and independent ground-truthing.

There are few whole-canopy or ecosystem scale assessments of the interplay between canopy temperature and photosynthesis across both spatial and temporal scales. The stable oxygen isotope ratio (δ18O) of plant cellulose can be used to resolve a photosynthesis-weighted estimate of canopy temperature, but the method requires independent confirmation. We compare isotope-resolved canopy temperatures derived from multi-year homogenization of tree cellulose δ18O to canopy-air temperatures weighted by gross primary productivity (GPP) at multiple sites, ranging from warm temperate to boreal and subalpine forests. We also perform a sensitivity analysis for isotope-resolved canopy temperatures that showed errors in plant source water δ18O lead to the largest errors in canopy temperature estimation. The relationship between isotope-resolved canopy temperatures and GPP-weighted air temperatures was highly significant across sites (p < 0.0001, R2 = 0.82), thus offering confirmation of the isotope approach. The previously observed temperature invariance from temperate to boreal biomes was confirmed, but the greater elevation of canopy temperature above air temperature in the boreal forest was not. Based on the current analysis, we conclude that canopy temperatures in the boreal forest are as warm as those in temperate systems because day-time-growing-season air temperatures are similarly warm.

CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration across dryland ecosystems of southwestern North America.

Global-scale studies suggest that dryland ecosystems dominate an increasing trend in the magnitude and interannual variability of the land CO2 sink. However, such analyses are poorly constrained by measured CO2 exchange in drylands. Here we address this observation gap with eddy covariance data from 25 sites in the water-limited Southwest region of North America with observed ranges in annual precipitation of 100-1000 mm, annual temperatures of 2-25°C, and records of 3-10 years (150 site-years in total). Annual fluxes were integrated using site-specific ecohydrologic years to group precipitation with resulting ecosystem exchanges. We found a wide range of carbon sink/source function, with mean annual net ecosystem production (NEP) varying from -350 to +330 gCm-2 across sites with diverse vegetation types, contrasting with the more constant sink typically measured in mesic ecosystems. In this region, only forest-dominated sites were consistent carbon sinks. Interannual variability of NEP, gross ecosystem production (GEP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco ) was larger than for mesic regions, and half the sites switched between functioning as C sinks/C sources in wet/dry years. The sites demonstrated coherent responses of GEP and NEP to anomalies in annual evapotranspiration (ET), used here as a proxy for annually available water after hydrologic losses. Notably, GEP and Reco were negatively related to temperature, both interannually within site and spatially across sites, in contrast to positive temperature effects commonly reported for mesic ecosystems. Models based on MODIS satellite observations matched the cross-site spatial pattern in mean annual GEP but consistently underestimated mean annual ET by ~50%. Importantly, the MODIS-based models captured only 20-30% of interannual variation magnitude. These results suggest the contribution of this dryland region to variability of regional to global CO2 exchange may be up to 3-5 times larger than current estimates.

Observed increase in local cooling effect of deforestation at higher latitudes.

Deforestation in mid- to high latitudes is hypothesized to have the potential to cool the Earth's surface by altering biophysical processes. In climate models of continental-scale land clearing, the cooling is triggered by increases in surface albedo and is reinforced by a land albedo-sea ice feedback. This feedback is crucial in the model predictions; without it other biophysical processes may overwhelm the albedo effect to generate warming instead. Ongoing land-use activities, such as land management for climate mitigation, are occurring at local scales (hectares) presumably too small to generate the feedback, and it is not known whether the intrinsic biophysical mechanism on its own can change the surface temperature in a consistent manner. Nor has the effect of deforestation on climate been demonstrated over large areas from direct observations. Here we show that surface air temperature is lower in open land than in nearby forested land. The effect is 0.85 ± 0.44 K (mean ± one standard deviation) northwards of 45° N and 0.21 ± 0.53 K southwards. Below 35° N there is weak evidence that deforestation leads to warming. Results are based on comparisons of temperature at forested eddy covariance towers in the USA and Canada and, as a proxy for small areas of cleared land, nearby surface weather stations. Night-time temperature changes unrelated to changes in surface albedo are an important contributor to the overall cooling effect. The observed latitudinal dependence is consistent with theoretical expectation of changes in energy loss from convection and radiation across latitudes in both the daytime and night-time phase of the diurnal cycle, the latter of which remains uncertain in climate models.

Mountain runoff vulnerability to increased evapotranspiration with vegetation expansion.

Climate change has the potential to reduce surface-water supply by expanding the activity, density, or coverage of upland vegetation, although the likelihood and severity of this effect are poorly known. We quantified the extent to which vegetation and evapotranspiration (ET) are presently cold-limited in California's upper Kings River basin and used a space-for-time substitution to calculate the sensitivity of riverflow to vegetation expansion. We found that runoff is highly sensitive to vegetation migration; warming projected for 2100 could increase average basin-wide ET by 28% and decrease riverflow by 26%. Kings River basin ET currently peaks at midelevation and declines at higher elevation, creating a cold-limited zone above 2,400 m that is disproportionately important for runoff generation. Climate projections for 2085-2100 indicate as much as 4.1 °C warming in California's Sierra Nevada, which would expand high rates of ET 700-m upslope if vegetation maintains its current correlation with temperature. Moreover, we observed that the relationship between basin-wide ET and temperature is similar across the entire western slope of California's Sierra Nevada, implying that the risk of increasing montane ET with warming is widespread.

Terrestrial carbon balance in a drier world: the effects of water availability in southwestern North America.

Global modeling efforts indicate semiarid regions dominate the increasing trend and interannual variation of net CO2 exchange with the atmosphere, mainly driven by water availability. Many semiarid regions are expected to undergo climatic drying, but the impacts on net CO2 exchange are poorly understood due to limited semiarid flux observations. Here we evaluated 121 site-years of annual eddy covariance measurements of net and gross CO2 exchange (photosynthesis and respiration), precipitation, and evapotranspiration (ET) in 21 semiarid North American ecosystems with an observed range of 100 - 1000 mm in annual precipitation and records of 4-9 years each. In addition to evaluating spatial relationships among CO2 and water fluxes across sites, we separately quantified site-level temporal relationships, representing sensitivity to interannual variation. Across the climatic and ecological gradient, photosynthesis showed a saturating spatial relationship to precipitation, whereas the photosynthesis-ET relationship was linear, suggesting ET was a better proxy for water available to drive CO2 exchanges after hydrologic losses. Both photosynthesis and respiration showed similar site-level sensitivity to interannual changes in ET among the 21 ecosystems. Furthermore, these temporal relationships were not different from the spatial relationships of long-term mean CO2 exchanges with climatic ET. Consequently, a hypothetical 100-mm change in ET, whether short term or long term, was predicted to alter net ecosystem production (NEP) by 64 gCm(-2) yr(-1). Most of the unexplained NEP variability was related to persistent, site-specific function, suggesting prioritization of research on slow-changing controls. Common temporal and spatial sensitivity to water availability increases our confidence that site-level responses to interannual weather can be extrapolated for prediction of CO2 exchanges over decadal and longer timescales relevant to societal response to climate change.

Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

Disturbance legacies and climate jointly drive tree growth and mortality in an intensively studied boreal forest.

Most North American forests are at some stage of post-disturbance regrowth, subject to a changing climate, and exhibit growth and mortality patterns that may not be closely coupled to annual environmental conditions. Distinguishing the possibly interacting effects of these processes is necessary to put short-term studies in a longer term context, and particularly important for the carbon-dense, fire-prone boreal forest. The goals of this study were to combine dendrochronological sampling, inventory records, and machine-learning algorithms to understand how tree growth and death have changed at one highly studied site (Northern Old Black Spruce, NOBS) in the central Canadian boreal forest. Over the 1999-2012 inventory period, mean tree diameter increased even as stand density and basal area declined significantly. Tree mortality averaged 1.4 ± 0.6% yr-(1), with most mortality occurring in medium-sized trees; new recruitment was minimal. There have been at least two, and probably three, significant influxes of new trees since stand initiation, but none in recent decades. A combined tree ring chronology constructed from sampling in 2001, 2004, and 2012 showed several periods of extreme growth depression, with increased mortality lagging depressed growth by ~5 years. Higher minimum and maximum air temperatures exerted a negative influence on tree growth, while precipitation and climate moisture index had a positive effect; both current- and previous-year data exerted significant effects. Models based on these variables explained 23-44% of the ring-width variability. We suggest that past climate extremes led to significant mortality still visible in the current forest structure, with decadal dynamics superimposed on slower patterns of fire and succession. These results have significant implications for our understanding of previous work at NOBS, the carbon sequestration capability of old-growth stands in a disturbance-prone landscape, and the sustainable management of regional forests in a changing climate.

Altered water and nitrogen input shifts succession in a southern California coastal sage community.

Vegetation-type conversions between grasslands and shrublands have occurred worldwide in semiarid regions over the last 150 years. Areas once covered by drought-deciduous shrubs in Southern California (coastal sage scrub) are converting to grasslands dominated by nonnative species. Increasing fire frequency, drought, and nitrogen deposition have all been hypothesized as causes of this conversion, though there is little direct evidence. We constructed rain-out shelters in a coastal sage scrub community following a wildfire, manipulated water and nitrogen input in a split-plot design, and collected annual data on community composition for four years. While shrub cover increased through time in all plots during the postfire succession, both drought and nitrogen significantly slowed recovery. Four years after the fire, average native shrub cover ranged from over 80% in water addition, ambient-nitrogen plots to 20% in water reduction, nitrogen addition plots. Nonnative grass cover was high following the fire and remained high in the water reduction plots through the third spring after the fire, before decreasing in the fourth year of the study. Adding nitrogen decreased the cover of native plants and increased the cover of nonnative grasses, but also increased the growth of one crown-sprouting shrub species. Our results suggest that extreme drought during postfire succession may slow or alter succession, possibly facilitating vegetation-type conversion of coastal sage scrub to grassland. Nitrogen addition slowed succession and, when combined with drought, significantly decreased native cover and increased grass cover. Fire, drought, and atmospheric N deposition are widespread aspects of environmental change that occur simultaneously in this system. Our results imply these drivers of change may reinforce each other, leading to a continued decline of native shrubs and conversion to annual grassland.

Reduced impact logging minimally alters tropical rainforest carbon and energy exchange.

We used eddy covariance and ecological measurements to investigate the effects of reduced impact logging (RIL) on an old-growth Amazonian forest. Logging caused small decreases in gross primary production, leaf production, and latent heat flux, which were roughly proportional to canopy loss, and increases in heterotrophic respiration, tree mortality, and wood production. The net effect of RIL was transient, and treatment effects were barely discernable after only 1 y. RIL appears to provide a strategy for managing tropical forest that minimizes the potential risks to climate associated with large changes in carbon and water exchange.