14-3-3σ/Stratifin and p21 limit AKT-related malignant progression in skin carcinogenesis following MDM2-associated p53 loss.

To study mechanisms driving/inhibiting skin carcinogenesis, stage-specific expression of 14-3-3σ (Stratifin) was analyzed in skin carcinogenesis driven by activated rasHa/fos expression (HK1.ras/fos) and ablation of PTEN-mediated AKT regulation (K14.creP/Δ5PTENflx/flx). Consistent with 14-3-3σ roles in epidermal differentiation, HK1.ras hyperplasia and papillomas displayed elevated 14-3-3σ expression in supra-basal keratinocytes, paralleled by supra-basal p-MDM2166 activation and sporadic p-AKT473 expression. In bi-genic HK1.fos/Δ5PTENflx/flx hyperplasia, basal-layer 14-3-3σ expression appeared, and alongside p53/p21, was associated with keratinocyte differentiation and keratoacanthoma etiology. Tri-genic HK1.ras/fos-Δ5PTENflx/flx hyperplasia/papillomas initially displayed increased basal-layer 14-3-3σ, suggesting attempts to maintain supra-basal p-MDM2166 and protect basal-layer p53. However, HK1.ras/fos-Δ5PTENflx/flx papillomas exhibited increasing basal-layer p-MDM2166 activation that reduced p53, which coincided with malignant conversion. Despite p53 loss, 14-3-3σ expression persisted in well-differentiated squamous cell carcinomas (wdSCCs) and alongside elevated p21, limited malignant progression via inhibiting p-AKT1473 expression; until 14-3-3σ/p21 loss facilitated progression to aggressive SCC exhibiting uniform p-AKT1473. Analysis of TPA-promoted HK1.ras-Δ5PTENflx/flx mouse skin, demonstrated early loss of 14-3-3σ/p53/p21 in hyperplasia and papillomas, with increased p-MDM2166/p-AKT1473 that resulted in rapid malignant conversion and progression to poorly differentiated SCC. In 2D/3D cultures, membranous 14-3-3σ expression observed in normal HaCaT and SP1ras61 papilloma keratinocytes was unexpectedly detected in malignant T52ras61/v-fos SCC cells cultured in monolayers, but not invasive 3D-cells. Collectively, these data suggest 14-3-3σ/Stratifin exerts suppressive roles in papillomatogenesis via MDM2/p53-dependent mechanisms; while persistent p53-independent expression in early wdSCC may involve p21-mediated AKT1 inhibition to limit malignant progression.

Burn Resuscitation Practices in North America: Results of the Acute Burn ResUscitation Multicenter Prospective Trial (ABRUPT).

OBJECTIVES: ABRUPT was a prospective, noninterventional, observational study of resuscitation practices at 21 burn centers. The primary goal was to examine burn resuscitation with albumin or crystalloids alone, to design a future prospective randomized trial. SUMMARY BACKGROUND DATA: No modern prospective study has determined whether to use colloids or crystalloids for acute burn resuscitation. METHODS: Patients ≥18 years with burns ≥ 20% total body surface area (TBSA) had hourly documentation of resuscitation parameters for 48 hours. Patients received either crystalloids alone or had albumin supplemented to crystalloid based on center protocols. RESULTS: Of 379 enrollees, two-thirds (253) were resuscitated with albumin and one-third (126) were resuscitated with crystalloid alone. Albumin patients received more total fluid than Crystalloid patients (5.2 ± 2.3 vs 3.7 ± 1.7 mL/kg/% TBSA burn/24 hours), but patients in the Albumin Group were older, had larger burns, higher admission Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) scores, and more inhalation injury. Albumin lowered the in-to-out (I/O) ratio and was started ≤12 hours in patients with the highest initial fluid requirements, given >12 hours with intermediate requirements, and avoided in patients who responded to crystalloid alone. CONCLUSIONS: Albumin use is associated with older age, larger and deeper burns, and more severe organ dysfunction at presentation. Albumin supplementation is started when initial crystalloid rates are above expected targets and improves the I/O ratio. The fluid received in the first 24 hours was at or above the Parkland Formula estimate.

Impact of tetravalent dengue vaccination with screening, ADE, and altered infectivity on single-serotype dengue and Zika transmission.

Acquired immunity to a dengue virus serotype (whether by infection or the only licensed dengue vaccine) can produce antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) in later infections with another dengue serotype, resulting in higher viral loads and more severe symptoms such as dengue hemorrhagic fever, unless the person already has immunity to multiple dengue serotypes. Screening to confirm dengue seropositivity is therefore recommended before vaccination. Recent studies suggest that the closely-related Zika virus may also interact with dengue through ADE. This study uses a mathematical model to evaluate the likely impact of imperfect screening and dengue vaccination on the spread of both viruses in a population where only one dengue serotype circulates, although the vaccine may take against any or all of the four recognized serotypes. Analysis focuses on the reproductive numbers of the viruses. Results indicate that vaccination increases the spread of Zika through induced ADE, while its impact on the spread of dengue depends on screening specificity and serotype-specific vaccine efficacies, as well as the intensity of ADE. Numerical analysis identifies the roles played by age-in and catch-up vaccination as well as screening characteristics and prior dengue exposure.

Comparison of Different Methods of Measuring Finger Range of Motion via Telehealth.

PURPOSE: This study examined the accuracy and reliability of measuring total motion of the fingers via telehealth using the following three different methods: (1) goniometry, (2) visual estimation, and (3) electronic protractor. Measurements were compared with in-person measurement, which was assumed to be the reference standard. METHODS: Thirty clinicians measured finger range of motion from prerecorded videos of a mannequin hand with articulating fingers, which was posed in extension and flexion that simulated a telehealth visit, using a goniometer with results blinded to the clinician (blinded goniometry), visual estimation, and an electronic protractor, in random order. Total motion was calculated for each finger and for all four fingers in sum. The experience level, familiarity with measuring finger range of motion, and opinions of measurement difficulty were assessed. RESULTS: Measurement with the electronic protractor was the only method equivalent to the reference standard within 20°. Remote goniometer and visual estimation did not fall within the acceptable error margin of equivalence, and both underestimated total motion. Electronic protractor also had the highest interrater reliability (intraclass correlation [upper limit, lower limit], 0.95 [0.92, 0.95]); goniometry (intraclass correlation, 0.94 [0.91, 0.97]) was nearly identical, whereas visual estimation (intraclass correlation, 0.82 [0.74, 0.89]) was much lower. Clinicians' experience and familiarity with range of motion measurements had no relationship with the findings. Clinicians reported visual estimation as the most difficult (80%) and electronic protractor as the easiest method (73%). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that traditional in-person forms of measurement underestimate finger range of motion via telehealth; a new computer-based method (ie, electronic protractor) was found to be more accurate. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The use of an electronic protractor can be beneficial to clinicians measuring range of motion in patients virtually.

Epidermal ROCK2 induces AKT1/GSK3ß/ß-catenin, NFκB and dermal tenascin C; but enhanced differentiation and p53/p21 inhibit papilloma.

ROCK2 roles in epidermal differentiation and carcinogenesis have been investigated in mice expressing an RU486-inducible, 4HT-activated ROCK2 transgene (K14.creP/lslROCKer). RU486/4HT-mediated ROCKer activation induced epidermal hyperplasia similar to cutaneous oncogenic rasHa (HK1.ras); however ROCKer did not elicit papillomas. Instead, anomalous basal-layer ROCKer expression corrupted normal ROCK2 roles underlying epidermal rigidity/stiffness and barrier maintanance, resulting in premature keratin K1, loricrin and filaggrin expression. Also, hyperproliferative/stress-associated keratin K6 was reduced; possibly reflecting altered ROCK2 roles in epidermal rigidity and keratinocyte flexibility/migration during wound healing. Consistent with increased proliferation, K14.creP/lslROCKer hyperplasia displayed supra-basal-to-basal increases in activated p-AKT1, inactivated p-GSK3ß ser9 and membranous/nuclear ß-catenin expression together with weak NFκB, which were absent in equivalent HK1.ras hyperplasia. Furthermore, ROCKer-mediated increases in epidermal rigidity via p-MypT1 inactivation/elevated MLC, coupled to anomalous ß-catenin expression, induced tenascin C-positive dermal fibroblasts. Alongside an altered ECM, these latent tenascin C-positive dermal fibroblasts may become putative pre-cancer-associated fibroblasts (pre-CAFs) and establish a susceptibility that subsequently contributes to tumour progression. However, anomalous differentiation was also accompanied by an immediate increase in basal-layer p53/p21 expression; suggesting that while ROCK2/AKT1/ß-catenin activation increased keratinocyte proliferation resulting in hyperplasia, compensatory p53/p21 and accelerated differentiation helped inhibit papillomatogenesis.

The Optimal Age of Vaccination Against Dengue with an Age-Dependent Biting Rate with Application to Brazil.

In this paper we introduce a single serotype transmission model, including an age-dependent mosquito biting rate, to find the optimal vaccination age against dengue in Brazil with Dengvaxia. The optimal vaccination age and minimal lifetime expected risk of hospitalisation are found by adapting a method due to Hethcote (Math Biosci 89:29-52). Any number and combination of the four dengue serotypes DENv1-4 is considered. Successful vaccination against a serotype corresponds to a silent infection. The effects of antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) and permanent cross-immunity after two heterologous infections are studied. ADE is assumed to imply risk-free primary infections, while permanent cross-immunity implies risk-free tertiary and quaternary infections. Data from trials of Dengvaxia indicate vaccine efficacy to be age and serostatus dependent and vaccination of seronegative individuals to induce an increased risk of hospitalisation. Some of the scenarios are therefore reconsidered taking these findings into account. The optimal vaccination age is compared to that achievable under the current age restriction of the vaccine. If vaccination is not considered to induce risk, optimal vaccination ages are very low. The assumption of ADE generally leads to a higher optimal vaccination age in this case. For a single serotype vaccination is not recommended in the case of ADE. Permanent cross-immunity results in a slightly lower optimal vaccination age. If vaccination induces a risk, the optimal vaccination ages are much higher, particularly for permanent cross-immunity. ADE has no effect on the optimal vaccination age when permanent cross-immunity is considered; otherwise, it leads to a slight increase in optimal vaccination age.

Uncovering a multitude of human glucocorticoid receptor variants: an expansive survey of a single gene.

BACKGROUND: Glucocorticoids are commonly used in the clinical setting for their potent anti-inflammatory effects; however, significant variations in response to treatment have been demonstrated. Although the underlying mechanisms have yet to be fully understood, this variable response may be a result of alterations in human glucocorticoid receptor (hGR) expression and function. In addition to hGRα, the biologically active isoform, a screening of current databases and publications revealed five alternative splice isoforms and hundreds of variants that have been reported to date. Many of these changes in the hGR-coding gene, NR3C1, have been linked to pathophysiology. However, many studies focus on evaluating hGR expression in vitro or detecting previously reported variants. RESULTS: In this study, blood from healthy volunteers, burn and asthma patients, as well as from peripheral blood mononuclear cells isolated from leukoreduced donor whole blood, were screened for NR3C1 isoforms. We identified more than 1500 variants, including an additional 21 unique splice isoforms which contain 15 new cryptic exons. A dynamic database, named the Universal hGR (UhGR), was created to annotate and visualize the variants. CONCLUSION: This identification of naturally occurring and stress-induced hGR isoforms, as well as the establishment of an hGR-specific database, may reveal new patterns or suggest areas of interest that will lead to the improved understanding of the human stress response system.

Neuropathy May Be an Independent Risk Factor for Amputation After Lower-Extremity Burn in Adults With Diabetes.

IN BRIEF Treatment of lower-extremity burn injuries in adults with diabetes can be complex, and some diabetes-related factors can lead to impaired healing of such wounds, putting patients at risk of amputation. In this retrospective review of adult patients with lower-extremity burns, patients with pre-injury neuropathy and higher A1C levels were more likely to require amputations after their burn injury. The authors conclude that lower-extremity burn injuries in patients with diabetes require close follow-up and possibly referral to a burn specialist for interventions and treatment strategies to offset more serious complications.

The Effects of Storage Age of Blood in Massively Transfused Burn Patients: A Secondary Analysis of the Randomized Transfusion Requirement in Burn Care Evaluation Study.

OBJECTIVES: Major trials examining storage age of blood transfused to critically ill patients administered relatively few blood transfusions. We sought to determine if the storage age of blood affects outcomes when very large amounts of blood are transfused. DESIGN: A secondary analysis of the multicenter randomized Transfusion Requirement in Burn Care Evaluation study which compared restrictive and liberal transfusion strategies. SETTING: Eighteen tertiary-care burn centers. PATIENTS: Transfusion Requirement in Burn Care Evaluation evaluated 345 adults with burns greater than or equal to 20% of the body surface area. We included only the 303 patients that received blood transfusions. INTERVENTIONS: The storage ages of all transfused red cell units were collected during Transfusion Requirement in Burn Care Evaluation. A priori measures of storage age were the the mean storage age of all transfused blood and the proportion of all transfused blood considered very old (stored ≥ 35 d). MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: The primary outcome was the severity of multiple organ dysfunction. Secondary outcomes included time to wound healing, the duration of mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality. There were 6,786 red cell transfusions with a mean (± SD) storage age of 25.6 ± 10.2 days. Participants received a mean of 23.4 ± 31.2 blood transfusions (range, 1-219) and a mean of 5.3 ± 10.7 units of very old blood. Neither mean storage age nor proportion of very old blood had any influence on multiple organ dysfunction severity, time to wound healing, or mortality. Duration of ventilation was significantly predicted by both mean blood storage age and the proportion of very old blood, but this was of questionable clinical relevance given extreme variability in duration of ventilation (adjusted r ≤ 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Despite massive blood transfusion, including very old blood, the duration of red cell storage did not influence outcome in burn patients. Provision of the oldest blood first by Blood Banks is rational, even for massive transfusion.

Transfusion Requirement in Burn Care Evaluation (TRIBE): A Multicenter Randomized Prospective Trial of Blood Transfusion in Major Burn Injury.

OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to compare outcomes of a restrictive to a liberal red cell transfusion strategy in 20% or more total body surface area (TBSA) burn patients. We hypothesized that the restrictive group would have less blood stream infection (BSI), organ dysfunction, and mortality. BACKGROUND: Patients with major burns have major (>1 blood volume) transfusion requirements. Studies suggest that a restrictive blood transfusion strategy is equivalent to a liberal strategy. However, major burn injury is precluded from these studies. The optimal transfusion strategy in major burn injury is thus needed but remains unknown. METHODS: This prospective randomized multicenter trial block randomized patients to a restrictive (hemoglobin 7-8 g/dL) or liberal (hemoglobin 10-11 g/dL) transfusion strategy throughout hospitalization. Data collected included demographics, infections, transfusions, and outcomes. RESULTS: Eighteen burn centers enrolled 345 patients with 20% or more TBSA burn similar in age, TBSA burn, and inhalation injury. A total of 7054 units blood were transfused. The restrictive group received fewer blood transfusions: mean 20.3 ±â€Š32.7 units, median = 8 (interquartile range: 3, 24) versus mean 31.8 ±â€Š44.3 units, median = 16 (interquartile range: 7, 40) in the liberal group (P < 0.0001, Wilcoxon rank sum). BSI incidence, organ dysfunction, ventilator days, and time to wound healing (P > 0.05) were similar. In addition, there was no 30-day mortality difference: 9.5% restrictive versus 8.5% liberal (P = 0.892, χ test). CONCLUSIONS: A restrictive transfusion strategy halved blood product utilization. Although the restrictive strategy did not decrease BSI, mortality, or organ dysfunction in major burn injury, these outcomes were no worse than the liberal strategy (Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT01079247).

Inherently variable responses to glucocorticoid stress among endogenous retroviruses isolated from 23 mouse strains.

Active participation of endogenous retroviruses (ERVs) in disease processes has been exemplified by the finding that the HERV (human ERV)-W envelope protein is involved in the pathogenesis of multiple sclerosis, an autoimmune disease. We also demonstrated that injury-elicited stressors alter the expression of murine ERVs (MuERVs), both murine leukemia virus-type and mouse mammary tumor virus (MMTV)-type (MMTV-MuERV). In this study, to evaluate MMTV-MuERVs' responses to stress (e.g., injury, infection)-elicited systemic glucocorticoid (GC) levels, we examined the GC-stress response of 64 MMTV-MuERV promoters isolated from the genomes of 23 mouse strains. All 64 promoters responded to treatment with a synthetic GC, dexamethasone (DEX), at a wide range from a 0.6- to 85.7-fold increase in reporter activity compared to no treatment. An analysis of the 10 lowest and 10 highest DEX responders revealed specific promoter elements exclusively present in either the three lowest or the two highest responders. Each promoter had a unique profile of transcription regulatory elements and the glucocorticoid response element (GRE) was identified in all promoters with the number of GREs ranging from 2 to 7. The three lowest DEX responders were the only promoters with two GREs. The findings from this study suggest that certain MMTV-MuERVs are more responsive to stress-elicited systemic GC elevation compared to the others. The mouse strain-specific genomic MMTV-MuERV profiles and individual MMTV-MuERVs' differential responses to GC-stress might explain, at least in part, the variable inflammatory responses to injury and/or infection, often observed among different mouse strains. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Immune and Metabolic Alterations in Trauma and Sepsis edited by Dr. Raghavan Raju.

Modelling the impact of the long-term use of insecticide-treated bed nets on Anopheles mosquito biting time.

BACKGROUND: Evidence of changing in biting and resting behaviour of the main malaria vectors has been mounting up in recent years as a result of selective pressure by the widespread and long-term use of insecticide-treated bed nets (ITNs), and indoor residual spraying. The impact of resistance behaviour on malaria intervention efficacy has important implications for the epidemiology and malaria control programmes. In this context, a theoretical framework is presented to understand the mechanisms determining the evolution of feeding behaviour under the pressure of use of ITNs. METHODS: An agent-based stochastic model simulates the impact of insecticide-treated bed nets on mosquito fitness by reducing the biting rates, as well as increasing mortality rates. The model also incorporates a heritability function that provides the necessary genetic plasticity upon which natural selection would act to maximize the fitness under the pressure of the control strategy. RESULTS: The asymptotic equilibrium distribution of mosquito population versus biting time is shown for several daily uses of ITNs, and the expected disruptive selection on this mosquito trait is observed in the simulations. The relative fitness of strains that bite at much earlier time with respect to the wild strains, when a threshold of about 50% of ITNs coverage highlights the hypothesis of a behaviour selection. A sensitivity analysis has shown that the top three parameters that play a dominant role on the mosquito fitness are the proportion of individuals using bed nets and its effectiveness, the impact of bed nets on mosquito oviposition, and the mosquito genetic plasticity related to changing in biting time. CONCLUSION: By taking the evolutionary aspect into account, the model was able to show that the long-term use of ITNs, although representing an undisputed success in reducing malaria incidence and mortality in many affected areas, is not free of undesirable side effects. From the evolutionary point of view of the parasite virulence, it should be expected that plasmodium parasites would be under pressure to reduce their virulence. This speculative hypothesis can eventually be demonstrated in the medium to long-term use of ITNs.

Estimating the prevalence of infectious diseases from under-reported age-dependent compulsorily notification databases.

BACKGROUND: National or local laws, norms or regulations (sometimes and in some countries) require medical providers to report notifiable diseases to public health authorities. Reporting, however, is almost always incomplete. This is due to a variety of reasons, ranging from not recognizing the diseased to failures in the technical or administrative steps leading to the final official register in the disease notification system. The reported fraction varies from 9 to 99% and is strongly associated with the disease being reported. METHODS: In this paper we propose a method to approximately estimate the full prevalence (and any other variable or parameter related to transmission intensity) of infectious diseases. The model assumes incomplete notification of incidence and allows the estimation of the non-notified number of infections and it is illustrated by the case of hepatitis C in Brazil. The method has the advantage that it can be corrected iteratively by comparing its findings with empirical results. RESULTS: The application of the model for the case of hepatitis C in Brazil resulted in a prevalence of notified cases that varied between 163,902 and 169,382 cases; a prevalence of non-notified cases that varied between 1,433,638 and 1,446,771; and a total prevalence of infections that varied between 1,597,540 and 1,616,153 cases. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the model proposed can be useful for estimation of the actual magnitude of endemic states of infectious diseases, particularly for those where the number of notified cases is only the tip of the iceberg. In addition, the method can be applied to other situations, such as the well-known underreported incidence of criminality (for example rape), among others.

Tissue-selective expression of a conditionally-active ROCK2-estrogen receptor fusion protein.

The serine/threonine kinases ROCK1 and ROCK2 are central mediators of actomyosin contractile force generation that act downstream of the RhoA small GTP-binding protein. As a result, they have key roles in regulating cell morphology and proliferation, and have been implicated in numerous pathological conditions and diseases including hypertension and cancer. Here we describe the generation of a gene-targeted mouse line that enables CRE-inducible expression of a conditionally-active fusion between the ROCK2 kinase domain and the hormone-binding domain of a mutated estrogen receptor (ROCK2:ER). This two-stage system of regulation allows for tissue-selective expression of the ROCK2:ER fusion protein, which then requires administration of estrogen analogues such as tamoxifen or 4-hydroxytamoxifen to elicit kinase activity. This conditional gain-of-function system was validated in multiple tissues by crossing with mice expressing CRE recombinase under the transcriptional control of cytokeratin14 (K14), murine mammary tumor virus (MMTV) or cytochrome P450 Cyp1A1 (Ah) promoters, driving appropriate expression in the epidermis, mammary or intestinal epithelia respectively. Given the interest in ROCK signaling in normal physiology and disease, this mouse line will facilitate research into the consequences of ROCK activation that could be used to complement conditional knockout models. Birth Defects Research (Part A) 106:636-646, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Genomic landscapes of endogenous retroviruses unveil intricate genetics of conventional and genetically-engineered laboratory mouse strains.

Laboratory strains of mice, both conventional and genetically engineered, have been introduced as critical components of a broad range of studies investigating normal and disease biology. Currently, the genetic identity of laboratory mice is primarily confirmed by surveying polymorphisms in selected sets of "conventional" genes and/or microsatellites in the absence of a single completely sequenced mouse genome. First, we examined variations in the genomic landscapes of transposable repetitive elements, named the TREome, in conventional and genetically engineered mouse strains using murine leukemia virus-type endogenous retroviruses (MLV-ERVs) as a probe. A survey of the genomes from 56 conventional strains revealed strain-specific TREome landscapes, and certain families (e.g., C57BL) of strains were discernible with defined patterns. Interestingly, the TREome landscapes of C3H/HeJ (toll-like receptor-4 [TLR4] mutant) inbred mice were different from its control C3H/HeOuJ (TLR4 wild-type) strain. In addition, a CD14 knock-out strain had a distinct TREome landscape compared to its control/backcross C57BL/6J strain. Second, an examination of superantigen (SAg, a "TREome gene") coding sequences of mouse mammary tumor virus-type ERVs in the genomes of the 46 conventional strains revealed a high diversity, suggesting a potential role of SAgs in strain-specific immune phenotypes. The findings from this study indicate that unexplored and intricate genomic variations exist in laboratory mouse strains, both conventional and genetically engineered. The TREome-based high-resolution genetics surveillance system for laboratory mice would contribute to efficient study design with quality control and accurate data interpretation. This genetics system can be easily adapted to other species ranging from plants to humans.

The risk of dengue for non-immune foreign visitors to the 2016 summer olympic games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Rio de Janeiro in Brazil will host the Summer Olympic Games in 2016. About 400,000 non-immune foreign tourists are expected to attend the games. As Brazil is the country with the highest number of dengue cases worldwide, concern about the risk of dengue for travelers is justified. METHODS: A mathematical model to calculate the risk of developing dengue for foreign tourists attending the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro in 2016 is proposed. A system of differential equation models the spread of dengue amongst the resident population and a stochastic approximation is used to assess the risk to tourists. Historical reported dengue time series in Rio de Janeiro for the years 2000-2015 is used to find out the time dependent force of infection, which is then used to estimate the potential risks to a large tourist cohort. The worst outbreak of dengue occurred in 2012 and this and the other years in the history of Dengue in Rio are used to discuss potential risks to tourists amongst visitors to the forthcoming Rio Olympics. RESULTS: The individual risk to be infected by dengue is very much dependent on the ratio asymptomatic/symptomatic considered but independently of this the worst month of August in the period studied in terms of dengue transmission, occurred in 2007. CONCLUSIONS: If dengue returns in 2016 with the pattern observed in the worst month of August in history (2007), the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic dengue cases among tourists will be 23 and 206 cases, respectively. This worst case scenario would have an incidence of 5.75 (symptomatic) and 51.5 (asymptomatic) per 100,000 individuals.

Whole blood neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin predicts acute kidney injury in burn patients.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of acute kidney injury (AKI) in severely burn-injured patients can help alter treatment to prevent progression to acute failure and reduce the need for renal replacement therapy. We hypothesized that whole blood neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) will be increased in severely burn-injured patients who develop AKI during acute resuscitation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We performed a prospective observation study of adult burn patients with a 20% total body surface area (TBSA) burned or greater burn injury. Two-hour serial measurements of NGAL, serum creatinine (Cr), and hourly urine output (UO) were collected for 48 h after admission. Our primary goal was to correlate the risk of AKI in the first week after burn injury with serial NGAL levels in the first 48 h after admission. Our secondary goal was to determine if NGAL was an earlier independent predictor of AKI compared with Cr and UO. RESULTS: We enrolled 30 adult (age ≥ 18 y) burn patients with the mean ± standard deviation age of 40.9 ± 15.4 and mean TBSA of 46.4 ± 22.4. Fourteen patients developed AKI within the first 7 d after burn injury. There were no differences in age, TBSA, fluid administration, mean arterial pressure, UO, and Cr between AKI and no-AKI patients. NGAL was significantly increased as early as 4 h after injury (182.67 ± 83.3 versus 107.37 ± 46.15) in the AKI group. Controlling for age, TBSA, and inhalation injury, NGAL was a predictor of AKI at 4 h after injury (odds ratio, 1.02) and remained predictive of AKI for the period of more than the first 24 h after admission. UO and Cr were not predictive of AKI in the first 24 h after admission. CONCLUSIONS: Whole blood NGAL is markedly increased in burn patients who develop AKI in the first week after injury. In addition, NGAL is an early independent predictor of AKI during acute resuscitation for severe burn injury. UO and Cr are not predictive of AKI during this time period.