Covariate adjusted meta-analytic predictive (CA-MAP) prior for historical borrowing using patient-level data.

Utilization of historical data is increasingly common for gaining efficiency in the drug development and decision-making processes. The underlying issue of between-trial heterogeneity in clinical trials is a barrier in making these methods standard practice in the pharmaceutical industry. Common methods for historical borrowing discount the borrowed information based on the similarity between outcomes in the historical and current data. However, individual clinical trials and their outcomes are intrinsically heterogenous due to differences in study design, patient characteristics, and changes in standard of care. Additionally, differences in covariate distributions can produce inconsistencies in clinical outcome data between historical and current data when there may be a consistent covariate effect. In such scenario, borrowing historical data is still advantageous even though the population level outcome summaries are different. In this paper, we propose a covariate adjusted meta-analytic-predictive (CA-MAP) prior for historical control borrowing. A MAP prior is assigned to each covariate effect, allowing the amount of borrowing to be determined by the consistency of the covariate effects across the current and historical data. This approach integrates between-trial heterogeneity with covariate level heterogeneity to tune the amount of information borrowed. Our method is unique as it directly models the covariate effects instead of using the covariates to select a similar population to borrow from. In summary, our proposed patient-level extension of the MAP prior allows for the amount of historical control borrowing to depend on the similarity of covariate effects rather than similarity in clinical outcomes.

A randomized phase 2 study of the 5-HT4 receptor agonist felcisetrag for postoperative gastrointestinal dysfunction after bowel surgery.

BACKGROUND: Felcisetrag (5-hydroxytryptamine-4 receptor [5-HT4] agonist) is under investigation as prophylaxis or active treatment for accelerating resolution of gastrointestinal function post-surgery. METHODS: Phase 2, randomized, placebo-controlled, parallel five-arm, double-blind, multicenter study (NCT03827655) in 209 adults undergoing open or laparoscopic-assisted bowel surgery. Patients received intravenous placebo, felcisetrag 0.1 mg/100 â€‹mL or 0.5 mg/100 â€‹mL pre-surgery only, or pre-surgery and daily post-surgery until return of gastrointestinal function or for up to 10 days. PRIMARY ENDPOINT: time to recovery of gastrointestinal function. RESULTS: Median time to recovery of gastrointestinal function was 2.6 days for both felcisetrag 0.5 â€‹mg daily and 0.5 â€‹mg pre-surgery versus 1.9 days for placebo (p â€‹> â€‹0.05). There were no notable differences in adverse events between treatment arms. CONCLUSIONS: Felcisetrag was well tolerated with no new safety concerns. However, no clinically meaningful difference in time to recovery of gastrointestinal function versus placebo was observed. Further investigation of the utility of 5-HT4 agonists in complicated, open abdominal surgeries may be warranted.