Experimental pig-to-pig transmission dynamics for African swine fever virus, Georgia 2007/1 strain.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) continues to cause outbreaks in domestic pigs and wild boar in Eastern European countries. To gain insights into its transmission dynamics, we estimated the pig-to-pig basic reproduction number (R 0) for the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV strain using a stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model with parameters estimated from transmission experiments. Models showed that R 0 is 2·8 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1·3-4·8] within a pen and 1·4 (95% CI 0·6-2·4) between pens. The results furthermore suggest that ASFV genome detection in oronasal samples is an effective diagnostic tool for early detection of infection. This study provides quantitative information on transmission parameters for ASFV in domestic pigs, which are required to more effectively assess the potential impact of strategies for the control of between-farm epidemic spread in European countries.

Thermal inactivation of foot and mouth disease virus in extruded pet food.

The risk of importing foot and mouth disease, a highly contagious viral disease of livestock, severely restricts trade and investment opportunities in many developing countries where the virus is present. This study was designed to investigate the inactivation of foot and mouth disease virus (FMDV) by heat treatments used in extruded commercial pet food manufacture. If extrusion could be shown to reliably inactivate the virus, this could potentially facilitate trade for FMDV-endemic countries. The authors found that there was no detectable virus following: i) treatment of FMDVspiked meat slurry at 68°C for 300 s; ii) treatment of FMDV-spiked slurry and meal mix at 79°C for 10 or 30 s, or iii) treatment of homogenised bovine tongue epithelium, taken from an FMDV-infected animal, at 79°C for 10 s. This corresponds to an estimated 8 log10 reduction in titre (95% credible interval: 6 log10 -13 log10). Furthermore, the authors found that the pH of the slurry and meal mix was sufficient to inactivate FMDV in the absence of heat treatment. This demonstrates that heat treatments used in commercial pet food manufacture are able to substantially reduce the titre of FMDV in infected raw materials.

En raison du risque d'introduction de la fièvre aphteuse, une maladie virale très contagieuse affectant le bétail, les échanges internationaux et les possibilités d'investissement de nombreux pays en développement sont soumis à des restrictions majeures. La présente étude vise à déterminer si les traitements thermiques appliqués lors de la fabrication industrielle d'aliments extrudés destinés aux animaux de compagnie sont efficaces pour inactiver le virus de la fièvre aphteuse dans ces produits. Si la procédure d'extrusion avait pour propriété démontrée d'inactiver le virus de manière fiable, les pays où le virus de la fièvre aphteuse est présent à l'état endémique pourraient accéder plus facilement aux échanges internationaux. Les auteurs n'ont pas trouvé de virus détectable à l'issue des opérations suivantes : i) traitement à 68 °C pendant 300 s d'une bouillie de viandes à laquelle avait été ajoutée une quantité connue de virus de la fièvre aphteuse ; ii) traitement à 79 °C pendant 10 ou 30 s d'un mélange de bouillie et de pâté auquel avait été ajoutée une quantité connue de virus de la fièvre aphteuse ; iii) traitement à 79 °C pendant 10 s d'un échantillon homogénéisé d'épithélium lingual prélevé d'un bovin atteint de fièvre aphteuse. Ces résultats correspondent à une réduction estimée du titre de 8 log10 (intervalle de confiance à 95 % : 6 log10 ­13 log10). En outre, les auteurs ont constaté que le pH du mélange de bouillie et de pâté était de nature à inactiver le virus de la fièvre aphteuse, en l'absence de traitement thermique. Ces résultats démontrent que les traitements thermiques utilisés lors de la fabrication industrielle d'aliments pour animaux de compagnie permettent de réduire de manière importante les titres du virus de la fièvre aphteuse dans les matières premières infectées.

El riesgo de importar fiebre aftosa, enfermedad vírica muy contagiosa que afecta al ganado vacuno, restringe sobremanera el comercio y las oportunidades de inversión en muchos países en desarrollo en los que el virus está presente. Los autores describen un estudio encaminado a analizar el método de inactivación del virus por calor que se emplea en la fabricación industrial de piensos extrusionados para animales de compañía. Si quedaba demostrado que la extrusión es un método fiable para inactivar el virus de la fiebre aftosa, ello podría abrir perspectivas comerciales a todos aquellos países donde dicho virus es endémico. Los autores observaron que no había presencia detectable de virus después de: i) mantener a 68°C durante 300 segundos una emulsión cárnica enriquecida con virus de la fiebre aftosa; ii) mantener a 79°C durante 10 o 30 segundos una emulsión y una mezcla de harinas enriquecidas con el virus; o iii) mantener a 79°C durante 10 segundos un homogenado de epitelio lingual bovino procedente de un animal infectado por el virus. Ello corresponde a una reducción estimada de la titulación de log10 8 (intervalo de confianza al 95%: log10 6 ­ log10 13). Además, los autores observaron que, en ausencia de tratamiento térmico, el pH de la emulsión y la mezcla de harinas bastaba para inactivar el virus de la fiebre aftosa, lo que demuestra que los tratamientos térmicos utilizados en la fabricación industrial de piensos pueden reducir sustancialmente el título de virus de la fiebre aftosa en materias primas infectadas.

Veterinary and human vaccine evaluation methods.

Despite the universal importance of vaccines, approaches to human and veterinary vaccine evaluation differ markedly. For human vaccines, vaccine efficacy is the proportion of vaccinated individuals protected by the vaccine against a defined outcome under ideal conditions, whereas for veterinary vaccines the term is used for a range of measures of vaccine protection. The evaluation of vaccine effectiveness, vaccine protection assessed under routine programme conditions, is largely limited to human vaccines. Challenge studies under controlled conditions and sero-conversion studies are widely used when evaluating veterinary vaccines, whereas human vaccines are generally evaluated in terms of protection against natural challenge assessed in trials or post-marketing observational studies. Although challenge studies provide a standardized platform on which to compare different vaccines, they do not capture the variation that occurs under field conditions. Field studies of vaccine effectiveness are needed to assess the performance of a vaccination programme. However, if vaccination is performed without central co-ordination, as is often the case for veterinary vaccines, evaluation will be limited. This paper reviews approaches to veterinary vaccine evaluation in comparison to evaluation methods used for human vaccines. Foot-and-mouth disease has been used to illustrate the veterinary approach. Recommendations are made for standardization of terminology and for rigorous evaluation of veterinary vaccines.

Comparison of pre-emptive and reactive strategies to control an incursion of bluetongue virus serotype 1 to Great Britain by vaccination.

Bluetongue (BT) is a disease of ruminants caused by bluetongue virus (BTV), which is spread between its hosts by Culicoides midges. Vaccination is the most effective way to protect susceptible animals against BTV and was used reactively to control the recent northern European outbreak. To assess the consequences of using vaccination pre-emptively we used a stochastic, spatially explicit model to compare reactive and pre-emptive vaccination strategies against an incursion of BTV serotype 1 (BTV-1) into Great Britain. Both pre-emptive and reactive vaccination significantly reduced the number of affected farms and limited host morbidity and mortality. In addition, vaccinating prior to the introduction of disease reduced the probability of an outbreak occurring. Of the strategies simulated, widespread reactive vaccination resulted in the lowest levels of morbidity. The predicted effects of vaccination were found to be sensitive to vaccine efficacy but not to the choice of transmission kernel.

The impact of sheep breed on the risk of classical scrapie.

The risk of classical scrapie in sheep is associated with polymorphisms in the prion protein (PrP) gene. In recent years, large-scale selective breeding programmes for sheep at lower risk of disease have been undertaken across the European Union. We analysed large-scale datasets on scrapie and sheep demography to investigate additional effects of sheep breed on scrapie risk. There was evidence for variation between certain breeds in the scrapie risk of some PrP genotypes, which could be caused by innate breed differences or distinct scrapie strains circulating within them. While the PrP genotypes of cases are generally consistent across breeds, some exceptions provide evidence that scrapie strain may influence affected PrP genotypes to a greater extent than innate breed differences. There was a significant association between the breed-level incidence of scrapie and the frequency of susceptible PrP genotypes in breeds. Our results lend support to selective breeding programmes which aim to reduce the frequency of high-risk PrP genotypes with measures not varying by sheep breed.

The effect of vaccination on undetected persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle herds and sheep flocks.

The importance of carrier animals (those in whom virus persists after recovery from disease or acute infection) and their potential role in the spread of disease remain open questions within foot-and-mouth disease epidemiology. Using simple probabilistic models we attempt to quantify the effect of emergency vaccination--and especially the time of application--on the likely number of such animals, using data from challenge experiments on both cattle and sheep to determine the probability of persistence in diseased and subclinically infected animals. We show that the number of persistently infected animals in a group is predominantly determined by the number of animals initially infected on premises--the high variability of which ultimately limits the accuracy of any predictions of carrier numbers based upon transmission models. Furthermore, results suggest that, within a cattle herd, carrier numbers may be increased if challenge occurs shortly after vaccination. We show that the quality of inspection is the principal factor influencing whether or not carrier herds occur and that, by reducing clinical signs, the application of vaccination in regularly checked stock also results in an increase in undetected persistently infected animals. Where clinical detection would be poor regardless of the use of vaccination (i.e. particularly in sheep), vaccination will result in a reduction in the probability of a group containing undetected carriers: otherwise there is a benefit only if vaccination is applied sufficiently far in advance of any challenge. The implications of the results for serosurveillance are discussed, including the requisite test sensitivity and practices for successful implementation.

Quantifying Levels of Peste Des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Virus in Excretions from Experimentally Infected Goats and Its Importance for Nascent PPR Eradication Programme.

Following the successful eradication of rinderpest, the World Organization of Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) have set a goal to globally eradicate Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) by 2030. To support the eradication programme we have quantified the levels of PPR virus (PPRV) nucleic acid excreted in body fluids (blood, feces, saliva, nasal and eye swabs) of PPRV-infected goats to ascertain which days post-infection animals are potentially infectious, and hence direct quarantine activities. The data will also indicate optimal sample strategies to assess presence of PPR infection in the naturally infected herd. Peak PPRV nucleic acid detection in different bodily fluids was between 5 and 10 days post-infection. As such, this period must be considered the most infectious period for contact transmission, although high viral load was observed through RNA detection in nasal excretions from two days post-infection until at least two weeks post-infection. Percentage sample positivity was low both in eye swabs and saliva samples during the early stage of infection although RNA was detected as late as two weeks post-infection. From the individual animal data, PPRV was detected later post-infection in fecal material than in other body fluids and the detection was intermittent. The results from this study indicate that nasal swabs are the most appropriate to sample when considering molecular diagnosis of PPRV.

Clinical and laboratory investigations of the outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease in southern England in 2007.

A case of foot-and-mouth disease (fmd) on a cattle farm in Normandy, Surrey, was confirmed on Friday August 3, 2007, the first case in the uk since 2001. The infection was detected nearby on a second farm on August 6. On September 12, fmd was confirmed on a farm approximately 20 km from Normandy in Egham, and this was followed by cases on five more farms in that area in the next three weeks. The majority of the infected farms consisted of multiple beef cattle holdings in semi-urban areas. In total, 1578 animals were culled on the infected farms, and fmd virus infection was confirmed in 278 of them by the detection of viral antigen, genome or antibodies to the virus, or by clinical signs. This paper describes the findings from animal inspections on the infected farms, including the estimated ages of the fmd lesions and the numbers of animals infected. It also summarises the test results from samples taken for investigation, including the detection of preclinically viraemic animals by using real-time reverse transcriptase-pcr.

Inferring within-herd transmission parameters for African swine fever virus using mortality data from outbreaks in the Russian Federation.

Mortality data are routinely collected for many livestock and poultry species, and they are often used for epidemiological purposes, including estimating transmission parameters. In this study, we infer transmission rates for African swine fever virus (ASFV), an important transboundary disease of swine, using mortality data collected from nine pig herds in the Russian Federation with confirmed outbreaks of ASFV. Parameters in a stochastic model for the transmission of ASFV within a herd were estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Estimates for the basic reproduction number varied amongst herds, ranging from 4.4 to 17.3. This was primarily a consequence of differences in transmission rate (range: 0.7-2.2), but also differences in the mean infectious period (range: 4.5-8.3 days). We also found differences amongst herds in the mean latent period (range: 5.8-9.7 days). Furthermore, our results suggest that ASFV could be circulating in a herd for several weeks before a substantial increase in mortality is observed in a herd, limiting the usefulness of mortality data as a means of early detection of an outbreak. However, our results also show that mortality data are a potential source of data from which to infer transmission parameters, at least for diseases which cause high mortality.

Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds.

In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the "Within-herd transmission potential Number" (Rh), i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the transmission coefficient (ß), 0.014 newly infected animals per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the rate at which infected individuals become infectious (α), 0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97 days), and for the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the skin test (α1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of 12 days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of those parameters (in particular ß and α) among the 22 herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1 year, and to 2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years, respectively.

Survival of African Swine Fever Virus in Excretions from Pigs Experimentally Infected with the Georgia 2007/1 Isolate.

African swine fever virus (ASFV) causes a lethal haemorrhagic disease of swine which can be transmitted through direct contact with infected animals and their excretions or indirect contact with contaminated fomites. The shedding of ASFV by infected pigs and the stability of ASFV in the environment will determine the extent of environmental contamination. The recent outbreaks of ASF in Europe make it essential to develop disease transmission models in order to design effective control strategies to prevent further spread of ASF. In this study, we assessed the shedding and stability of ASFV in faeces, urine and oral fluid from pigs infected with the Georgia 2007/1 ASFV isolate. The half-life of infectious ASFV in faeces was found to range from 0.65 days when stored at 4°C to 0.29 days when stored at 37°C, while in urine it was found to range from 2.19 days (4°C) to 0.41 days (37°C). Based on these half-lives and the estimated dose required for infection, faeces and urine would be estimated to remain infectious for 8.48 and 15.33 days at 4°C and 3.71 and 2.88 days at 37°C, respectively. The half-life of ASFV DNA was 8 to 9 days in faeces and 2 to 3 days in oral fluid at all temperatures. In urine, the half-life of ASFV DNA was found to be 32.54 days at 4°C decreasing to 19.48 days at 37°C. These results indicate that ASFV in excretions may be an important route of ASFV transmission.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. II. Assessing the impact on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie.

By establishing a breeding programme for transmissible spongiform encephalopathie (TSE) resistance, there are plans to eradicate sheep TSEs from member states of the European Union (EU). In this paper, we used a simple age- and genotype-structured model to assess the impact of four breeding strategies on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie in the British sheep flock. The strategies ranged from the minimum EU requirements to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP). All four strategies were predicted to reduce the prevalence and incidence of disease, though there was likely to be a delay of several years between the implementation of a breeding programme and the reduction in incidence. There were differences in the efficacy of the strategies, with the most stringent resulting in the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence. However, the magnitude of the differences was not great, largely because all four strategies eliminated the VRQ allele, which is associated with a markedly higher risk of disease than any of the other alleles. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model results were robust to selection bias when estimating the risk of infection; and that the efficacy of a breeding programme was unlikely to be compromised, unless the risk of infection is substantially underestimated by data on clinical disease.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. I. Assessing the impact on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies.

From April 2005, member states of the European Union were required to implement a compulsory breeding programme for resistance to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in sheep as part of measures to eradicate TSEs from national flocks. In this paper, we assessed the impact of four different breeding strategies on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies using a mathematical model which describes in detail gene flow in the British sheep flock. These strategies ranged from the minimum requirements laid down in by EU legislation to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP) ram genotyping scheme. All four strategies were predicted to substantially reduce the frequency of the VRQ allele, which is associated with the highest risk of scrapie, although schemes with more stringent requirements produced a larger reduction. However, there were marked differences in the impact of the strategies on the frequency of other PrP alleles. In particular, restrictions beyond those required by EU legislation were necessary to change the frequency of other PrP alleles substantially. Consequently, a breeding programme which aims to reduce the risk to human health by reducing the frequency of the ARQ allele (associated with the highest risk of BSE in sheep) must place restrictions on ARQ-bearing animals. Similarly, a programme which seeks to increase the frequency of the ARR allele (associated with the lowest risk of TSE) must favour ARR-bearing animals.

Descriptive analysis of the results of an anonymous postal survey of the occurrence of scrapie in Great Britain in 2002.

An anonymous postal survey was conducted in 2002 to estimate the proportion of farms in Great Britain affected with scrapie and to gather information on the likely risk factors for the occurrence of the disease; the response rate was 53 per cent. The survey showed that 1 per cent of the respondents thought they had had scrapie in their flock in the previous 12 months, and that 12 per cent thought they had had scrapie in the past. The results of the survey were consistent with the results of a similar survey carried out in 1998, and with notification patterns, but in 1998 approximately 3 per cent of farmers reported having had scrapie in the previous 12 months. It is not clear whether the apparent decrease in the prevalence of scrapie is real or whether it may be due to factors such as sampling biases, or to the increasing knowledge of the signs of scrapie shown by the respondents in 2002.

Results of a postal survey of scrapie in the Shetland Islands in 2003.

In February 2003, a postal survey of 1279 sheep farmers in the Shetland Islands yielded 586 responses (46 per cent response rate). The principal aim of the survey was to gather information on the history and control of scrapie. Overall, 28.5 per cent of the respondents thought they had had a case of scrapie in their flock at some time. There was a slow increase in the proportion of affected flocks during the 1970s, followed by a more rapid increase during the 1980s and early 1990s, and a decline from the mid-1990s onwards. The peak proportion of affected flocks was approximately 6 per cent in 1994. Of the farmers who had ever had scrapie in their flock, 97.1 per cent had attempted to control the disease. The most common method of control was breeding from non-susceptible tups, used by 90.6 per cent of the affected flocks and 75.1 per cent of the flocks that had never been affected. A comparison of the characteristics of the affected and unaffected flocks indicated that an increased risk of scrapie was associated with the larger flocks, the open flocks and the flocks that bought in lambs. The basic reproduction ratio for the spread of scrapie between flocks was estimated to be 1.47, and the mean duration of an outbreak within a flock was estimated to be approximately two years.

A Comparison of Dynamics in Two Models for the Spread of a Vector-Borne Disease.

In 2007, bluetongue virus (BTV) was introduced to both Denmark (DK) and the United Kingdom (UK). For this reason, simulation models were built to predict scenarios for future incursions. The DK and UK models have a common description of within-herd dynamics, but differ greatly in their descriptions of between-herd spread, one using an explicit representation of vector dispersal, the other a transmission kernel. Here, we compare model predictions for the dynamics of bluetongue in the UK, based on the 2007 incursion and vaccination rollout in 2008. We demonstrate how an agent-based model shows greater sensitivity to the level of vaccine uptake and has lower variability compared with a kernel-based model. However, a model using a transmission kernel requires less detailed data and is often faster.

Mass vaccination, immunity and coverage: modelling population protection against foot-and-mouth disease in Turkish cattle.

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Turkey is controlled using biannual mass vaccination of cattle. However, vaccine protection is undermined by population turnover and declining immunity. A dynamic model of the Turkish cattle population was created. Assuming biannual mass vaccination with a single-dose primary course, vaccine history was calculated for the simulated population (number of doses and time since last vaccination). This was used to estimate population immunity. Six months after the last round of vaccination almost half the cattle aged < 24 months remain unvaccinated. Only 50% of all cattle would have received > 1 vaccine dose in their life with the last dose given ≤ 6 months ago. Five months after the last round of vaccination two-thirds of cattle would have low antibody titres (< 70% protection threshold). Giving a two-dose primary vaccination course reduces the proportion of 6-12 month old cattle with low titres by 20-30%. Biannual mass vaccination of cattle leaves significant immunity gaps and over-reliance on vaccine protection should be avoided. Using more effective vaccines and vaccination strategies will increase population immunity, however, the extent to which FMD can be controlled by vaccination alone without effective biosecurity remains uncertain.

Frequencies of PrP genotypes in 38 breeds of sheep sampled in the National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain.

Between October 2001 and January 2003 the prion protein (PrP) genotypes of over 250,000 sheep were determined through the operation of the National Scrapie Plan (NSP); the results for 38 breeds were analysed to provide an estimate of the underlying PrP genotype distribution of the British sheep population. Although there was marked variability among the genotype profiles of the different breeds, several trends emerged. A comparison of the allele frequencies demonstrated that the breeds could be grouped into three categories: breeds dominated by ARR and ARQ in which the frequency of ARR exceeded the frequency of ARQ; breeds dominated by ARR and ARQ in which the frequency of ARQ exceeded the frequency of ARR; and breeds with significant levels of either AHQ, ARH or VRQ. Hill breeds were more likely to have a lower proportion of animals at low risk of scrapie (NSP type 1) and a higher proportion of animals at an intermediate risk of scrapie (NSP type 3) than other breeds. Most breeds had a small proportion of animals at high risk of scrapie (NSP type 5). The frequency of ARR/VRQ (NSP type 4) was variable.

Randomised field trial to evaluate serological response after foot-and-mouth disease vaccination in Turkey.

Despite years of biannual mass vaccination of cattle, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remains uncontrolled in Anatolian Turkey. To evaluate protection after mass vaccination we measured post-vaccination antibodies in a cohort of cattle (serotypes O, A and Asia-1). To obtain results reflecting typical field protection, participants were randomly sampled from across Central and Western Turkey after routine vaccination. Giving two-doses one month apart is recommended when cattle are first vaccinated against FMD. However, due to cost and logistics, this is not routinely performed in Turkey, and elsewhere. Nested within the cohort, we conducted a randomised trial comparing post-vaccination antibodies after a single-dose versus a two-dose primary vaccination course. Four to five months after vaccination, only a third of single-vaccinated cattle had antibody levels above a threshold associated with protection. A third never reached this threshold, even at peak response one month after vaccination. It was not until animals had received three vaccine doses in their lifetime, vaccinating every six months, that most (64% to 86% depending on serotype) maintained antibody levels above this threshold. By this time cattle would be >20 months old with almost half the population below this age. Consequently, many vaccinated animals will be unprotected for much of the year. Compared to a single-dose, a primary vaccination course of two-doses greatly improved the level and duration of immunity. We concluded that the FMD vaccination programme in Anatolian Turkey did not produce the high levels of immunity required. Higher potency vaccines are now used throughout Turkey, with a two-dose primary course in certain areas. Monitoring post-vaccination serology is an important component of evaluation for FMD vaccination programmes. However, consideration must be given to which antigens are present in the test, the vaccine and the field virus. Differences between these antigens affect the relationship between antibody titre and protection.