Status and methodology of publicly available national HIV care continua and 90-90-90 targets: A systematic review.

BACKGROUND: In 2014, the Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) issued treatment goals for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The 90-90-90 target specifies that by 2020, 90% of individuals living with HIV will know their HIV status, 90% of people with diagnosed HIV infection will receive antiretroviral treatment (ART), and 90% of those taking ART will be virally suppressed. Consistent methods and routine reporting in the public domain will be necessary for tracking progress towards the 90-90-90 target. METHODS AND FINDINGS: For the period 2010-2016, we searched PubMed, UNAIDS country progress reports, World Health Organization (WHO), UNAIDS reports, national surveillance and program reports, United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Country Operational Plans, and conference presentations and/or abstracts for the latest available national HIV care continuum in the public domain. Continua of care included the number and proportion of people living with HIV (PLHIV) who are diagnosed, on ART, and virally suppressed out of the estimated number of PLHIV. We ranked the described methods for indicators to derive high-, medium-, and low-quality continuum. For 2010-2016, we identified 53 national care continua with viral suppression estimates representing 19.7 million (54%) of the 2015 global estimate of PLHIV. Of the 53, 6 (with 2% of global burden) were high quality, using standard surveillance methods to derive an overall denominator and program data from national cohorts for estimating steps in the continuum. Only nine countries in sub-Saharan Africa had care continua with viral suppression estimates. Of the 53 countries, the average proportion of the aggregate of PLHIV from all countries on ART was 48%, and the proportion of PLHIV who were virally suppressed was 40%. Seven countries (Sweden, Cambodia, United Kingdom, Switzerland, Denmark, Rwanda, and Namibia) were within 12% and 10% of achieving the 90-90-90 target for "on ART" and for "viral suppression," respectively. The limitations to consider when interpreting the results include significant variation in methods used to determine national continua and the possibility that complete continua were not available through our comprehensive search of the public domain. CONCLUSIONS: Relatively few complete national continua of care are available in the public domain, and there is considerable variation in the methods for determining progress towards the 90-90-90 target. Despite bearing the highest HIV burden, national care continua from sub-Saharan Africa were less likely to be in the public domain. A standardized monitoring and evaluation approach could improve the use of scarce resources to achieve 90-90-90 through improved transparency, accountability, and efficiency.

Social Media Interventions to Promote HIV Testing, Linkage, Adherence, and Retention: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Social media is increasingly used to deliver HIV interventions for key populations worldwide. However, little is known about the specific uses and effects of social media on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) interventions. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review examines the effectiveness of social media interventions to promote HIV testing, linkage, adherence, and retention among key populations. METHODS: We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) checklist and Cochrane guidelines for this review and registered it on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews, PROSPERO. We systematically searched six databases and three conference websites using search terms related to HIV, social media, and key populations. We included studies where (1) the intervention was created or implemented on social media platforms, (2) study population included men who have sex with men (MSM), transgender individuals, people who inject drugs (PWID), and/or sex workers, and (3) outcomes included promoting HIV testing, linkage, adherence, and/or retention. Meta-analyses were conducted by Review Manager, version 5.3. Pooled relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated by random-effects models. RESULTS: Among 981 manuscripts identified, 26 studies met the inclusion criteria. We found 18 studies from high-income countries, 8 in middle-income countries, and 0 in low-income countries. Eight were randomized controlled trials, and 18 were observational studies. All studies (n=26) included MSM; five studies also included transgender individuals. The focus of 21 studies was HIV testing, four on HIV testing and linkage to care, and one on antiretroviral therapy adherence. Social media interventions were used to do the following: build online interactive communities to encourage HIV testing/adherence (10 studies), provide HIV testing services (9 studies), disseminate HIV information (9 studies), and develop intervention materials (1 study). Of the studies providing HIV self-testing, 16% of participants requested HIV testing kits from social media platforms. Existing social media platforms such as Facebook (n=15) and the gay dating app Grindr (n=10) were used most frequently. Data from four studies show that HIV testing uptake increased after social media interventions (n=1283, RR 1.50, 95% CI 1.28-1.76). In the studies where social media interventions were participatory, HIV testing uptake was higher in the intervention arm than the comparison arm (n=1023, RR 1.64, 95% CI 1.19-2.26). CONCLUSIONS: Social media interventions are effective in promoting HIV testing among MSM in many settings. Social media interventions to improve HIV services beyond HIV testing in low- and middle-income countries and among other key populations need to be considered. TRIAL REGISTRATION: International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO): CRD42016048073; http://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/display_record.php?ID=CRD42016048073 (Archived by WebCite at http://www. webcitation.org/6usLCJK3v).

CD4 Cell Count: Declining Value for Antiretroviral Therapy Eligibility.

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) policy for people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has historically been based on clinical indications, such as opportunistic infections and CD4 cell counts. Studies suggest that CD4 counts early in HIV infection do not predict relevant public health outcomes such as disease progression, mortality, and HIV transmission in people living with HIV. CD4 counts also vary widely within individuals and among populations, leading to imprecise measurements and arbitrary ART initiation. To capture the clinical and preventive benefits of treatment, the global HIV response now focuses on increasing HIV diagnosis and ART coverage. CD4 counts for ART initiation were necessary when medications were expensive and had severe side effects, and when the impact of early ART initiation was unclear. However, current evidence suggests that although CD4 counts may still play a role in guiding clinical care to start prophylaxis for opportunistic infections, CD4 counts should cease to be required for ART initiation.

Realizing the potential of treatment as prevention: global ART policy and treatment coverage.

This article reviews the antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation criteria from published national guidelines for 94 countries (representing 86 % of global HIV burden) and compares them with the 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) ART guidelines. As of 31st of July 2014, 19 countries have adopted the WHO-recommended CD4 eligibility criteria of ≤500 cells/mm(3), while seven have opted to treat irrespective of CD4 cell count ("test and treat"). Together, these 26 countries represent 27 % of 2013 global HIV burden. Additionally, test and treat is recommended for selected groups of HIV-positive individuals, namely, (a) people with tuberculosis in 58 countries, (b) pregnant women in 42 countries, (c) people with liver disease due to hepatitis B co-infection in 52 countries, (d) serodiscordant couples in 35 countries and (e) children below 5 years in nine countries. Global access to treatment has improved; however in 2013, ART coverage was 12.9 million or 37 % of people living with HIV. Rapidly translating new science into policy is a critical component of the HIV response. Adapting and implementing the 2013 WHO treatment recommendations are necessary to prevent unnecessary illness, death, HIV transmission and costs.

A Narrative Review of Retinopathy in Diabetic Patients.

Patients with diabetes may be at risk of ocular diseases, like retinopathy due to diabetes and oedema of the eye. Patients with retinopathy due to diabetes experience constant injury to the retina and the posterior end of the eye, which is light-sensitive. It is a prominent complication faced by diabetics that threatens a patient's vision. Diabetes can inhibit the body's potential to ingest and maintain blood glycemic levels, resulting in several health problems. Excessive glucose in the blood can affect the eyes and other organs of the body. Diabetes has an effect on the blood supply system of the retina over a prolonged period of time. Diabetes-related retinopathy can lead to blindness as fluid can flow into the macula, which is essential for maintaining a clear visual field. The macula, despite its small size, is the region that enables us to comprehend colours and fine peculiarities well. The fluid swells the macula, leading to an impaired visual field. The weak, irregular blood vessels formed during neovascularization can potentially haemorrhage into the posterior end of the eye, obstructing the visual field. Blood vessels of the eye leak blood and other fluids, causing retinal tissue enlargement and eyesight clouding. Typically, the illness affects both eyes. Diabetes retinopathy is more likely to develop as a person's diabetes progresses. If untreated, retinopathy due to diabetes can result in blindness.

Angina Bullosa Haemorrhagica in COVID 19: A Diagnostic Conundrum. Case Report and Review of Literature.

Oral manifestations of COVID-19 are amongst the most obscure and ill-reported. Of these, angina bullosa haemorrhagica is amongst the rarest. Only 2 cases of angina bullosa haemorrhagica in COVID-19 patients have been reported in literature. Angina bullosa haemorrhagica (ABH) is an enigmatic, abstruse condition represented by sudden onset of painful subepithelial, mucosal blood-filled vesicles and bullae in the oral cavity. It is not attributed to any systemic conditions, blood dyscracias or other well-known dermatological pathologies. The occurrence of these lesions in patients of COVID-19 suggests that the underlying pathology of the latter may predispose to ABH and thus help in shedding some light onto the pathogenesis of this obscure disease. Herein we present 2 cases of ABH in patients of COVID-19 within a few weeks of the resolution of the latter. Both patients reported that they had never had this condition before and that this was the first presentation of the symptom. A review of literature shows that the etiopathogenesis of ABH is ambiguous at best and that the pathology underlying the oral manifestation of COVID-19 may well be applicable to ABH as well. Various mechanisms have been proposed to cause oral manifestations in COVID-19 patients. These include imbalance in the RAS pathway causing mucosal disruption, immune dysregulation, deranged cellular immune mechanism and disruption of local immune mechanisms. Since ABH has been reported in COVID 19, it is plausible that some of the mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of oral manifestations may explain the pathogenesis of ABH.

Update on treatment as prevention of HIV illness, death, and transmission: sub-Saharan Africa HIV financing and progress towards the 95-95-95 target.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: After over 40 years, the HIV pandemic is amongst the deadliest in history - 100% fatal without treatment, HIV has infected over 84 million people, and has caused over 40 million deaths. Global HIV spending between 2000 and 2015 totaled over a half trillion dollars. Delays in harnessing scientific advances, including 'test and treat' and treatment as prevention of illness, death, and transmission (TasP) provide a cautionary tale applicable to other pandemics. Resource allocation has also been problematic with many highest burden countries spending less than 50% on care and treatment. RECENT FINDINGS: Between 2002 and 2021, over $94 billion was budgeted for HIV in 40 sub-Saharan African countries, with 19 countries over $1 billion. In 2021, 8.1 million (32%) People Living with HIV (PLHIV) are still not on treatment; viral suppression data, the most important programme success indicator, is unavailable for 50% of countries. Of 19 countries with at least one billion dollars budgeted, seven have below 80% ART coverage, leaving 3.5 million (29%) of PLHIV off treatment and vulnerable to illness, death, and transmitting the virus to partners and children. SUMMARY: With additional funding and improved efficiency, achieving the 95-95-95 target to diagnose 95% of all HIV-positive individuals, provide antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 95% of those diagnosed and achieve viral suppression for 95% of those treated by 2030 is feasible and the humane pathway towards ending the HIV pandemic.

Human immunodeficiency virus funding and access to treatment in sub-Saharan Africa.

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment prevents illness, death, and transmission. The 90-90-90 disease control target is only 73% of people living with HIV virally suppressed. For 2010 to 2019, we abstracted HIV funding data for 40 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (70% of global HIV burden and >99% of HIV burden in the region in 2018). During 2010-2019, there was ∼$52 billion funding for 40 countries (99% Africa HIV burden). Domestic funding ranged from $0 to $3.2 billion. PEPFAR funding was $32 billion (average $1.4 billion; range $0.089-4.3 billion) among 22 countries. Global Fund averaged $306 million ($1.9 million to $1.1 billion) for 40 countries. Among PLHIV, known HIV status averaged 80% (11% to 94%). ART coverage averaged 64% (9% to 90%). Viral suppression among PLHIV ranged from 8% to 87%. Of the 40 countries, 21 reported under 60% of PLHIV to be on treatment and 13 did not report viral suppression for 2018. Achieving 90-90-90 is feasible in challenging settings if resources are used efficiently. Despite the significant investment in the HIV response, many countries have not reached the 90-90-90 target. Greater attention to efficiency and prioritizing important targets will be required to end AIDS in Africa.

90-90-90 HIV targets: implications for HIV-associated tuberculosis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis syndemic remains a major global public health threat. HIV and tuberculosis (TB) global targets have been set. Success will depend on achieving combined disease control. We explore current policy, economic investment, and disease control strategies for HIV, TB, and HIV-associated TB. We review published HIV, TB, and HIV-associated TB data for 30 WHO priority countries and propose a comprehensive HIV and TB care continua. RECENT FINDINGS: In 2016, people living with HIV (PLHIV) on antiretroviral treatment (ART) ranged from 13 to 84%; viral suppression ranged from 21 to 79%. Only 5% of PLHIV without TB reported a course of isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT). TB treatment success (2015) ranged from 34 to 94%. Data for the combined indicators: TB treatment success and viral suppression and IPT and ART for PLHIV are not collected. Reported 2003-2017 global international and domestic resources for TB and HIV-associated TB averaged $2.9 billion per year; cumulative total was $43 billion. SUMMARY: Integrating HIV and TB control efforts including monitoring and evaluation systems will be necessary to end both TB and HIV. A comprehensive HIV and TB continuum supports integrated, comprehensive HIV and TB disease control efforts focused on improving both individual and public health.

Two diseases, same person: moving toward a combined HIV and tuberculosis continuum of care.

The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis syndemic remains a global public health threat. Separate HIV and tuberculosis (TB) global targets have been set; however, success will depend on achieving combined disease control objectives and care continua. The objective of this study was to review available policy, budgets, and data to reconceptualize TB and HIV disease control objectives by combining HIV and TB care continua. For 22 World Health Organization (WHO) TB and TB/HIV priority countries, we used 2015 data from the HIV90-90-90watch website, UNAIDS AIDSinfo, and WHO 2016 and 2017 Global TB Reports. Global resources available in TB and HIV/TB activities for 2003-2017 were collected from publicly available sources. In 22 high-burden countries, people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy ranged from 9 to 70%; viral suppression was 38-63%. TB treatment success ranged from 71 to 94% with 14 (81% HIV/TB burden) countries above 80% TB treatment success. From 2003 to 2017, reported global international and domestic resources for HIV-associated TB and TB averaged $2.85 billion per year; the total for 2003-2017 was 43 billion dollars. Reviewing combined HIV and TB targets demonstrate disease control progress and challenges. Using an integrated HIV and TB continuum supports HIV and TB disease control efforts focused on improving both individual and public health.

National HIV Care Continua for Key Populations.

We reviewed published national HIV care continua for men who have sex with men (MSM), people who inject drugs (PWID), and female sex workers (FSWs) to track progress toward the 90-90-90 target. We searched the Internet, PubMed, surveillance reports, United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS country reports, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief country/regional operational plans, and conference abstracts for the continua and graded them on quality. We found 12 continua for MSM, 7 for PWID, and 5 for FSW from 12 countries. HIV diagnosis, antiretroviral therapy coverage, and viral suppression varied between (1) 5% and 85%, 2% and 73%, and 1% and 72%, respectively for MSM; (2) 54% and 96%, 14% and 80%, and 8% and 68%, respectively for PWID; and (3) 27% and 63%, 8% and 16%, and 2% and 14%, respectively for FSW. Two countries, using data from national cohorts, were high quality. There are limited key population continua in the public domain. Of the few available, none have achieved 90-90-90. Improved monitoring and evaluation of key population continua is necessary to achieve the 90-90-90 target.

Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and tuberculosis in South Africa: a dynamical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In September, 2016, South Africa adopted a policy of providing antiretroviral treatment to everyone infected with HIV irrespective of their CD4 cell count. Studies of universal treatment and expanded prevention of HIV differ widely in their projections of effects and the associated costs, so we did this analysis to attempt to find a consensus. METHODS: We used data on HIV from the Joint UN Programme on HIV and AIDS (UNAIDS) from 1988 to 2013 and from data from WHO on tuberculosis from 1980 to to 2013 to fit a dynamical model to time trends in HIV prevalence, antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage, and tuberculosis notification rates in South Africa. We then used the model to estimate current trends and project future patterns in HIV prevalence and incidence, AIDS-related mortality, and tuberculosis notification rates, and we used data from the South African National AIDS Council to assess current and future costs under different combinations of treatment and prevention approaches. We considered two treatment strategies: the Constant Effort strategy, in which people infected with HIV continue to start treatment at the rate in 2016, and the Expanded Treatment and Prevention (ETP) strategy, in which testing rates are increased, treatment is started immediately after HIV is detected, and prevention programmes are expanded. FINDINGS: Our estimates show that HIV incidence among adults aged 15 years or older fell from 2·3% per year in 1996 to 0·65% per year in 2016, AIDS-related mortality decreased from 1·4% per year in 2006 to 0·37% per year in 2016, and both continue to fall at a relative rate of 17% per year. Our model shows that maintenance of Constant Effort will have a substantial effect on HIV but will not end AIDS, whereas ETP could end AIDS by 2030, with incidence of HIV and AIDs-related mortality rates both at less than one event per 1000 adults per year. Under ETP the annual cost of health care and prevention will increase from US$2·3 billion in 2016 to $2·9 billion in 2018, then decrease to $1·7 billion in 2030 and $0·9 billion in 2050. Over the next 35 years, the expansion of treatment will avert an additional 3·8 million new infections, save 1·1 million lives, and save $3·2 billion compared with continuing Constant Effort up to 2050. Expansion of prevention, including provision of pre-exposure prophylaxis, condom distribution, and male circumcision, could avert a further 150 000 new infections, save 5000 lives, and cost an additional $5·7 billion compared with Constant Effort. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that South Africa is on track to reduce HIV incidence and AIDS-related mortality substantially by 2030, saving both lives and money. Success will depend on high rates of HIV testing, ART delivery and adherence, good patient monitoring and support, and data to monitor progress. FUNDING: None.

When will sub-Saharan Africa adopt HIV treatment for all?

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) HIV treatment guidelines have been used by various countries to revise their national guidelines. Our study discusses the national policy response to the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa and quantifies delays in adopting the WHO guidelines published in 2009, 2013 and 2015. METHODS: From the Internet, health authorities and experts, and community members, we collected 59 published HIV guidelines from 33 countries in the sub-Saharan African region, and abstracted dates of publication and antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility criteria. For these 33 countries, representing 97% regional HIV burden in 2015, the number of months taken to adopt the WHO 2009, 2013 and/or 2015 guidelines were calculated to determine the average delay in months needed to publish revised national guidelines. FINDINGS: Of the 33 countries, 3 (6% regional burden) are recommending ART according to the WHO 2015 guidelines (irrespective of CD4 count); 19 (65% regional burden) are recommending ART according to the WHO 2013 guidelines (CD4 count ≤ 500 cells/mm3); and 11 (26% regional burden) according to the WHO 2009 guidelines (CD4 count ≤ 350 cells/mm3). The average time lag to WHO 2009 guidelines adoption in 33 countries was 24 (range 3-56) months. The 22 that have adopted the WHO 2013 guidelines took an average of 10 (range 0-36) months, whilst the three countries that adopted the WHO 2015 guidelines took an average of 8 (range 7-9) months. CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need to shorten the time lag in adopting and implementing the new WHO guidelines recommending 'treatment for all' to achieve the 90-90-90 targets.

HIV/AIDS in the South-East Asia region: progress and challenges.

The South-East Asia region, with 11 member states, has an estimated 3.5 million people living with HIV (PLHIV). More than 99% of PLHIV live in five countries where HIV prevalence among the population aged 15-49 remains low but is between 2% and 29% among key populations. Since 2010, the region has made progress to combat the epidemic. Mature condom programmes exist in most countries but opioid substitution therapy, and needle and syringe exchange programmes need to be scaled up. HIV testing is recommended nationwide in four countries and is prioritised in high prevalence areas or for key populations in the rest. In 2015, PLHIV aware of their HIV status ranged from 26% to 89%. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for all PLHIV in Thailand and Maldives while six countries recommend ART at CD4 cell counts <500 cells/mm3. In 2015, 1.4 million (39%) PLHIV were receiving ART compared to 670,000 (20%) in 2010. Coverage of HIV testing and treatment among HIV-positive pregnant women has also improved but remains low in all countries except Thailand, which has eliminated mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis. Between 2010 and 2015, AIDS-related deaths and new HIV infections have shown a declining trend in all the high-burden countries except Indonesia. But the region is far from achieving the 90-90-90 target by 2020 and the end of AIDS by 2030. The future HIV response requires that governments work in close collaboration with communities, address stigma and discrimination, and efficiently invest domestic resources in evidence-based HIV testing and treatment interventions for populations in locations that need them most.

Pattern, Determinants, and Impact of HIV Spending on Care and Treatment in 38 High-Burden Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

UNLABELLED: : Achieving the 90-90-90 targets by 2020 requires increased focus, resources, and efficiency to provide earlier access to antiretroviral therapy (ART). METHODS: We used 2009 to 2013 National AIDS Spending Assessment data to assess HIV care and treatment spending in 38 high-burden, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). RESULTS: In 2013, 23 of the 38 high-burden countries spent less than 50% of total HIV spending on care and treatment. HIV spending on ART per people living with HIV (PLHIV; adjusted) averaged US$299 (US$32-US$2463). During 2009 to 2013, a 10% increase in average spending on care and treatment per PLHIV was associated with an increase in ART coverage of 2.4% and a decrease in estimated AIDS-related death rate of 2.4 per 1000 PLHIV. DISCUSSION: HIV spending in high-burden LMICs does not consistently reflect the new science around the preventative and clinical benefits of earlier HIV diagnosis and ART initiation.

Density and Capture Cross-Section of Interface Traps in GeSnO2 and GeO2 Grown on Heteroepitaxial GeSn.

An imperative factor in adapting GeSn as the channel material in CMOS technology, is the gate-oxide stack. The performance of GeSn transistors is degraded due to the high density of traps at the oxide-semiconductor interface. Several oxide-gate stacks have been pursued, and a midgap Dit obtained using the ac conductance method, is found in literature. However, a detailed signature of oxide traps like capture cross-section, donor/acceptor behavior and profile in the bandgap, is not yet available. We investigate the transition region between stoichiometric insulators and strained GeSn epitaxially grown on virtual Ge substrates. Al2O3 is used as high-κ oxide and either Ge1-xSnxO2 or GeO2 as interfacial layer oxide. The interface trap density (Dit) profile in the lower half of the bandgap is measured using deep level transient spectroscopy, and the importance of this technique for small bandgap materials like GeSn, is explained. Our results provide evidence for two conclusions. First, an interface traps density of 1.7 × 10(13) cm(-2)eV(-1) close to the valence band edge (Ev + 0.024 eV) and a capture cross-section (σp) of 1.7 × 10(-18) cm(2) is revealed for GeSnO2. These traps are associated with donor states. Second, it is shown that interfacial layer passivation of GeSn using GeO2 reduces the Dit by 1 order of magnitude (2.6 × 10(12) cm(-2)eV(-1)), in comparison to GeSnO2. The results are cross-verified using conductance method and saturation photovoltage technique. The Dit difference is associated with the presence of oxidized (Sn(4+)) and elemental Sn in the interfacial layer oxide.

Hypophosphatemic osteomalacia in von Recklinghausen neurofibromatosis: Case report and literature review.

Osteomalacia in neurofibromatosis is a rare entity and distinct from more common dysplastic skeletal affections of this disease. As a rule, it is characterized by later onset in adulthood. There is renal phosphate loss with hypophosphatemia and multiple pseudofractures in the typical cases. The hypophosphatemic conditions that interfere in bone mineralization comprise many hereditary or acquired diseases, all of them sharing the same pathophysiological mechanism-reduction in phosphate reabsorption by the renal tubuli. This process leads to chronic hyperphosphaturia and hypophosphatemia, associated with inappropriately normal or low levels of calcitriol, causing rickets in children and osteomalacia in adults.

Trends in AIDS Deaths, New Infections and ART Coverage in the Top 30 Countries with the Highest AIDS Mortality Burden; 1990-2013.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) prevents human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression, mortality and transmission. We assess the impact of expanded HIV treatment for the prevention of Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS)-related deaths and simulate four treatment scenarios for Nigeria and South Africa. METHODS: For 1990-2013, we used the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) database to examine trends in AIDS deaths, HIV incidence and prevalence, ART coverage, annual AIDS death rate, AIDS death-to-treatment and HIV infections to treatment ratios for the top 30 countries with the highest AIDS mortality burden and compare them with data from high-income countries. We projected the 1990-2020 AIDS deaths for Nigeria and South Africa using four treatment scenarios: 1) no ART; 2) maintaining current ART coverage; 3) 90% ART coverage based on 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) ART guidelines by 2020; and 4) reaching the United Nations 90-90-90 Target by 2020. FINDINGS: In 2013, there were 1.3 million (1.1 million-1.6 million) AIDS deaths in the top 30 countries representing 87% of global AIDS deaths. Eight countries accounted for 58% of the global AIDS deaths; Nigeria and South Africa accounted for 27% of global AIDS deaths. The highest death rates per 1000 people living with HIV were in Central African Republic (91), South Sudan (82), Côte d'Ivoire (75), Cameroon (72) and Chad (71), nearly 8-10 times higher than the high-income countries. ART access in 2013 has averted as estimated 1,051,354 and 422,448 deaths in South Africa and Nigeria, respectively. Increasing ART coverage in these two countries to meet the proposed UN 90-90-90 Target by 2020 could avert 2.2 and 1.2 million deaths, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Over the past decade the expansion of access to ART averted millions of deaths. Reaching the proposed UN 90-90-90 Target by 2020 will prevent additional morbidity, mortality and HIV transmission. Despite progress, high-burden countries will need to accelerate access to ART treatment to avert millions of premature AIDS deaths and new HIV infections.