Spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth in China, 1990-2020: A systematic review and modelling analysis.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the long-term trends of preterm birth rates in China and their geographic variation by province. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the annual spatial-temporal distribution of preterm birth rates in China by province from 1990 to 2020. DATA SOURCES: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, CNKI, WANFANG and VIP from January 1990 to September 2023. STUDY SELECTION AND DATA EXTRACTION: Studies that provided data on preterm births in China after 1990 were included. Data were extracted following the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting. SYNTHESIS: We assessed the quality of each survey using a 9-point checklist. We estimated the annual preterm birth risk by province using Bayesian multilevel logistic regression models considering potential socioeconomic, environmental, and sanitary predictors. RESULTS: Based on 634 survey data from 343 included studies, we found a gradual increase in the preterm birth risk in most provinces in China since 1990, with an average annual increase of 0.7% nationally. However, the preterm birth rates in Inner Mongolia, Hubei, and Fujian Province showed a decline, while those in Sichuan were quite stable since 1990. In 2020, the estimates of preterm birth rates ranged from 2.9% (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 2.1, 3.8) in Inner Mongolia to 8.5% (95% BCI 6.6, 10.9) in Jiangxi, with the national estimate of 5.9% (95% BCI 4.3, 8.1). Specifically, some provinces were identified as high-risk provinces for either consistently high preterm birth rates (e.g. Jiangxi) or relatively large increases (e.g. Shanxi) since 1990. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides annual information on the preterm birth risk in China since 1990 and identifies high-risk provinces to assist in targeted control and intervention for this health issue.

Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study.

OBJECTIVES: This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability. RESULTS: In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention. CONCLUSION: Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE[30-70].

Effects of family multi-generational relationship on multimorbidity and healthy life expectancy for second generations: insight from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.

OBJECTIVE: In the context of aging, Chinese families consisting of more than three generations (grandparents, parents, children) are the norm. The second generation (parents) and other family members may establish a downward (contact only with children) or two-way multi-generational relationship (contact with children and grandparents). These multi-generational relationships may have the potential effect on multimorbidity burden and healthy life expectancy in the second generation, but less is known about the direction and intensity of this effect. This study aims to explore this potential effect. METHODS: We obtained longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011 to 2018, which included 6,768 people. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the association between multi-generational relationships and the number of multimorbidity. The Markov multi-state transition model was used to analyze the relationship between multi-generational relationships and the severity of multimorbidity. The multistate life table was used to calculate healthy life expectancy for different multi-generational relationships. RESULTS: The risk of multimorbidity in two-way multi-generational relationship was 0.830 (95% CIs: 0.715, 0.963) times higher than that in downward multi-generational relationship. For mild multimorbidity burden, downward and two-way multi-generational relationship may prevent aggravation of burden. For severe multimorbidity burden, two-way multi-generational relationship may aggravate the burden. Compared with two-way multi-generational relationship, the second generations with downward multi-generational relationship has a higher healthy life expectancy at all ages. CONCLUSION: In Chinese families with more than three generations, the second generations with severe multimorbidity burden may aggravate the condition by providing support to elderly grandparents, and the support provided by offspring to the second generations plays a vital positive role in improving the quality of life and narrowing the gap between healthy life expectancy and life expectancy.

Developing and validating a Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index for middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate an index to quantify the multimorbidity burden in Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. METHODS: We included 20,035 individuals aged 45 and older from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and 19,297 individuals aged 65 and older from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS). Health outcomes of physical functioning (PF), basic and instrumental activities of daily living (ADL and IADL) and mortality were obtained. Based on self-reported disease status, we calculated five commonly used western multimorbidity indexes for CHARLS baseline participants. The one that predicted the health outcomes the best was selected and then modified through a linear mixed model using the repeated individual data in CHARLS. The performance of the modified index was internally and externally evaluated with CHARLS and CLHLS data. RESULTS: The multimorbidity-weighted index (MWI) performed the best among the five indexes. In the modified Chinese multimorbidity-weighted index (CMWI), the weights of the diseases varied greatly (range 0.2-5.1). The top three diseases with the highest impact were stroke, memory-related diseases and cancer, corresponding to weights of 5.1, 4.3 and 3.4, respectively. Compared with the MWI, the CMWI showed better model fits for PF and IADL with larger R2 and smaller Akaike information criterion, and comparable prediction performances for ADL, IADL and mortality (e.g. the same predictive accuracy of 0.80 for ADL disability). CONCLUSION: The CMWI is an adequate index to quantify the multimorbidity burden for Chinese middle-aged and older community-dwelling individuals. It can be directly computed via disease status examined in regular community health check-ups to facilitate health management.

A clinical model and nomogram for early prediction of gestational diabetes based on common maternal demographics and routine clinical parameters.

AIM: We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) based on the common maternal demographics and routine clinical variables in Chinese population. METHODS: Individual information was collected from December 2018 to October 2019 by a pretested questionnaire on demographics, medical and family history, and lifestyle factors. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to establish a predictive model for GDM by variables in pre- and early pregnancy. The consistency and discriminative validity of the model were evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing and ROC curve analysis. Internal validation was appraised by fivefold cross-validation. Clinical utility was assessed by decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Total 3263 pregnant women were included with 17.2% prevalence of GDM. The model equation was: LogitP = -11.432 + 0.065 × maternal age (years) + 0.061 × pre-pregnancy BMI (kg/m2 ) + 0.055 × weight gain in early pregnancy (kg) + 0.872 × history of GDM + 0.336 × first-degree family history of diabetes +0.213 × sex hormone usages during pre- or early pregnancy + 1.089 × fasting glucose (mmol/L) + 0.409 × triglycerides (mmol/L) + 0.082 × white blood cell count (109/L) + 0.669 × positive urinary glucose. Homer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing indicated a good consistency between predictive and actual data (p = 0.586). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.720 (95% CI: 0.697 ~ 0.744). Cross-validation suggested a good internal validity of the model. A nomogram has been made to establish an easy to use scoring system for clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive model of GDM exhibited well acceptable predictive ability, discriminative performance, and clinical utilities. The project was registered in clinicaltrial.gov.com with identifier of NCT03922087.

Correction: Associations Between Affective States and Sexual and Health Status Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Exploratory Study Using Social Media Data.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/13201.].

Associations Between Affective States and Sexual and Health Status Among Men Who Have Sex With Men in China: Exploratory Study Using Social Media Data.

BACKGROUND: Affective states, including sentiment and emotion, are critical determinants of health. However, few studies among men who have sex with men (MSM) have examined sentiment and emotion specifically using real-time social media technologies. Moreover, the explorations on their associations with sexual and health status among MSM are limited. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to understand and examine the associations of affective states with sexual behaviors and health status among MSM using public data from the Blued (Blued International Inc) app. METHODS: A total of 843,745 public postings of 377,610 MSM users located in Guangdong were saved from the Blued app by automatic screen capture. Positive affect, negative affect, sexual behaviors, and health status were measured using the Simplified Chinese Linguistic Inquiry and Word Count. Emotions, including joy, sadness, anger, fear, and disgust, were measured using the Weibo Basic Mood Lexicon. A positive sentiment score and a positive emotion score were also calculated. Univariate and multivariate linear regression models on the basis of a permutation test were used to assess the associations of affective states with sexual behaviors and health status. RESULTS: A total of 5871 active MSM users and their 477,374 postings were finally selected. Both positive affect and positive emotions (eg, joy) peaked between 7 AM and 9 AM. Negative affect and negative emotions (eg, sadness and disgust) peaked between 2 AM and 4 AM. During that time, 25.1% (97/387) of negative postings were related to health and 13.4% (52/387) of negative postings were related to seeking social support. A multivariate analysis showed that the MSM who were more likely to post sexual behaviors were more likely to express positive affect (beta=0.3107; P<.001) and positive emotions (joy: beta=0.027; P<.001), as well as negative emotions (sadness: beta=0.0443; P<.001 and disgust: beta=0.0256; P<.001). They also had a higher positive sentiment score (beta=0.2947; P<.001) and a higher positive emotion score (beta=0.1612; P<.001). The MSM who were more likely to post their health status were more likely to express negative affect (beta=0.8088; P<.001) and negative emotions, including sadness (beta=0.0705; P<.001), anger (beta=0.0058; P<.001), fear (beta=0.0052; P<.001), and disgust (beta=0.3065; P<.001), and less likely to express positive affect (beta=-0.0224; P=.02). In addition, they had a lower positive sentiment score (beta=-0.8306; P<.001) and a lower positive emotion score (beta=-0.3743; P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: The MSM social media community mainly expressed their positive affect in the early morning and negative affect after midnight. Positive affective states were associated with being sexually active, whereas negative affective states were associated with health problems, mostly about mental health. Our finding suggests the potential to deliver different health-related intervention strategies (eg, psychological counseling and safe sex promotion) on a social media app according to the affective states of MSM in real time.

The relationship between psychosocial risk factors, burnout and quality of life among primary healthcare workers in rural Guangdong province: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare workers are often exposed to stressful working conditions at work which affect their quality of life. The study investigated the relationship between psychosocial risk factors, stress, burnout, and quality of life among primary healthcare workers in general medical practice in Qingyuan and Chaozhou cities in Guangdong province. METHOD: The cross-sectional study was conducted in 108 primary health facilities including 36 community health centers (CHCs) across two developing cities in Guangdong province. A total of 873 healthcare workers completed the questionnaires. Quality of life was evaluated using The World Health Organization Quality of Life Questionnaire (WHOQOL-BREF) and psychological risk factors were evaluated by the Copenhagen Psychosocial Questionnaire (COPSOQ). General quality of life and the quality of life domains were transformed into a score range from minimum 0 to 100 maximum. Higher scores indicated better quality of life and vice versa. Significant associations were verified using multiple regression analysis. RESULTS: Poor quality of life was observed in 74.6% of healthcare workers surveyed. General poor quality of life was significantly higher among workers who reported higher burnout (Beta = - 0.331, p < 0.001). In addition, workers with high levels of burnout, unmarried workers and female workers had a higher possibility of physical health. A greater risk of poor psychological health was observed among workers with high burnout, poor sense of community and those with lower educational levels. Workers who lacked social support, those with fewer possibilities for development had increased probability of poor quality of life in the social domain. Poor quality of life in the environmental domain was observed among workers who were dissatisfied with their jobs and workers with low salaries. CONCLUSIONS: Primary healthcare workers in developing cities in China have a highly demanding and strained working environment and poor quality of life. Reducing job stress and improving work conditions may ultimately improve the well-being of primary healthcare workers.

Intimate relationship characteristics as determinants of HIV risk among men who have sex with regular male sex partners: a cross-sectional study in Guangzhou, China.

BACKGROUND: China faces a serious HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM), and a large proportion of new infections are attributed to their regular male sex partners (RP). The objective of this study was to investigate the association between intimate relationship characteristics and HIV-related behaviors among MSM with RP in Guangzhou, China. METHODS: A convenience-sampling method was used in data collection. A total of 608 MSM were screened, of whom 406 HIV negative MSM with at least one RP in the past six months were used for data analysis. Three-step logistic regressions were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: The prevalence of unprotected anal intercourse (UAI) with regular male sex partners, non-regular male sex partners, and concurrent UAI in the past six months was 53.9%, 23.6%, 20.7%, respectively. Variables associated with UAI with regular male sex partners included expectations for this relationship (adjusted odds ratio in multiple forward stepwise logistic regression, ORm = 1.66) and open communication about the sexual relationship (ORm = 1.79), while expectations for the relationship (ORm = 0.46 to 0.54) and conflicts of interest (ORm = 5.46 to 5.97) were associated with concurrent UAI and UAI with non-regular male sex partners. CONCLUSION: Intimate relationship characteristics were related to HIV-related risk behaviors. Future HIV prevention interventions should take MSM couples into consideration, include a focus on the quality of their intimate relationships, and encourage open communication about their sexual relationships.

Geographical heterogeneity and inequality of access to improved drinking water supply and sanitation in Nepal.

BACKGROUND: Per United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, Nepal is aspiring to achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water and provide access to adequate and equitable sanitation for all by 2030. For these goals to be accomplished, it is important to understand the country's geographical heterogeneity and inequality of access to its drinking-water supply and sanitation (WSS) so that resource allocation and disease control can be optimized. We aimed 1) to estimate spatial heterogeneity of access to improved WSS among the overall Nepalese population at a high resolution; 2) to explore inequality within and between relevant Nepalese administrative levels; and 3) to identify the specific administrative areas in greatest need of policy attention. METHODS: We extracted cluster-sample data on the use of the water supply and sanitation that included 10,826 surveyed households from the 2011 Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, then used a Gaussian kernel density estimation with adaptive bandwidths to estimate the distribution of access to improved WSS conditions over a grid at 1 × 1 km. The Gini coefficient was calculated for the measurement of inequality in the distribution of improved WSS; the Theil L measure and Theil T index were applied to account for the decomposition of inequality. RESULTS: 57% of Nepalese had access to improved sanitation (range: 18.1% in Mahottari to 100% in Kathmandu) and 92% to drinking-water (range: 41.7% in Doti to 100% in Bara). The most unequal districts in Gini coefficient among improved sanitation were Saptari, Sindhuli, Banke, Bajura and Achham (range: 0.276 to 0.316); and Sankhuwasabha, Arghakhanchi, Gulmi, Bhojpur, Kathmandu (range: 0.110 to 0.137) among improved drinking-water. Both the Theil L and Theil T showed that within-province inequality was substantially greater than between-province inequality; while within-district inequality was less than between-district inequality. The inequality of several districts was higher than what is calculated by regression of the Gini coefficient and our estimates. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed considerable geographical heterogeneity and inequality not evidenced in previous national statistics. Our findings may be useful in prioritizing resources to reduce inequality and expand the coverage of improved water supply and sanitation in Nepal.