Temporal and Spatial Differences between Symptomatic and Asymptomatic Malaria Infections in the Chittagong Hill Districts, Bangladesh.

Mapping asymptomatic malaria infections, which contribute to the transmission reservoir, is important for elimination programs. This analysis compared the spatiotemporal patterns of symptomatic and asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum malaria infections in a cohort study of ∼25,000 people living in a rural hypoendemic area of about 179 km2 in a small area of the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh. Asymptomatic infections were identified by active surveillance; symptomatic clinical cases presented for care. Infections were identified by a positive rapid diagnostic test and/or microscopy. Fifty-three subjects with asymptomatic P. falciparum infection were compared with 572 subjects with symptomatic P. falciparum between mid-October 2009 and mid-October 2012 with regard to seasonality, household location, and extent of spatial clustering. We found increased spatial clustering of symptomatic compared with asymptomatic infections, and the areas of high intensity were only sometimes overlapping. Symptomatic cases had a distinct seasonality, unlike asymptomatic infections, which were detected year-round. In a comparison of 42 symptomatic Plasmodium vivax and 777 symptomatic P. falciparum cases from mid-October 2009 through mid-March 2015, we found substantial spatial overlap in areas with high infection rates, but the areas with the greatest concentration of infection differed. Detection of both symptomatic P. falciparum and symptomatic P. vivax infections was greater during the May-to-October high season, although a greater proportion of P. falciparum cases occurred during the high season compared with P. vivax. These findings reinforce that passive malaria surveillance and treatment of symptomatic cases will not eliminate the asymptomatic reservoirs that occur distinctly in time and space.

Spatial modelling of individual arsenic exposure via well water: evaluation of arsenic in urine, main water source and influence of neighbourhood water sources in rural Bangladesh.

Arsenic concentrations in well water often vary even within limited geographic areas. This makes it difficult to obtain valid estimates of the actual exposure, as people may take their drinking water from different wells. We evaluated a spatial model for estimation of the influence of multiple neighbourhood water sources on the actual exposure, as assessed by concentrations in urine in a population in rural Bangladesh. In total 1307 individuals (one per bari, group of families) were randomly selected. Arsenic concentrations of urine and water were analysed. Simple average and inverse distance weighted average of arsenic concentrations in the five nearest water sources were calculated for each individual. Spatial autocorrelation was evaluated using Moran's I statistics, and spatial regression models were employed to account for spatial autocorrelation. The average distance from a household to the nearest tube-well was 32 metres (Inter-Quartile Range 1-49 metres). Water arsenic concentrations of the reported main water sources were significantly correlated with concentrations in urine (R(2) = 0.41, rho < 0.0001, R(2) for women = 0.45 and for men = 0.36). General model fit improved only slightly after spatial adjustment for neighbouring water sources (pseudo-R(2) = 0.53, spatial lag model), compared to covariate adjusted regression coefficient (R(2) = 0.46). Arsenic concentration in urine was higher than arsenic in main water source with an intercept of 57 microg L(-1), indicating exposure from food. A suitable way of estimating an individual's past exposure to arsenic in this rural setting, where influence of neighbouring water sources was minimal, was to consider the reported main source of drinking water.

Application of Poisson kriging to the mapping of cholera and dysentery incidence in an endemic area of Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Disease maps can serve to display incidence rates geographically, to inform on public health provision about the success or failure of interventions, and to make hypothesis or to provide evidences concerning disease etiology. Poisson kriging was recently introduced to filter the noise attached to rates recorded over sparsely populated administrative units. Its benefit over simple population-weighted averages and empirical Bayesian smoothers was demonstrated by simulation studies using county-level cancer mortality rates. This paper presents the first application of Poisson kriging to the spatial interpolation of local disease rates, resulting in continuous maps of disease rate estimates and the associated prediction variance. The methodology is illustrated using cholera and dysentery data collected in a cholera endemic area (Matlab) of Bangladesh. RESULTS: The spatial analysis was confined to patrilineally-related clusters of households, known as baris, located within 9 kilometers from the Matlab hospital to avoid underestimating the risk of disease incidence, since patients far away from the medical facilities are less likely to travel. Semivariogram models reveal a range of autocorrelation of 1.1 km for dysentery and 0.37 km for cholera. This result translates into a cholera risk map that is patchier than the dysentery map that shows a large zone of high incidence in the south-central part of the study area, which is quasi-urban. On both maps, lower risk values are found in the Northern part of the study area, which is also the most distant from the Matlab hospital. The weaker spatial continuity of cholera versus dysentery incidence rates resulted in larger kriging variance across the study area. CONCLUSION: The approach presented in this paper enables researchers to incorporate the pattern of spatial dependence of incidence rates into the mapping of risk values and the quantification of the associated uncertainty. Differences in spatial patterns, in particular the range of spatial autocorrelation, reflect differences in the mode of transmission of cholera and dysentery. Our risk maps for cholera and dysentery incidences should help identifying putative factors of increased disease incidence, leading to more effective prevention and remedial actions in endemic areas.

Subclinical Plasmodium falciparum infections act as year-round reservoir for malaria in the hypoendemic Chittagong Hill districts of Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVES: An analysis of the risk factors and seasonal and spatial distribution of individuals with subclinical malaria in hypoendemic Bangladesh was performed. METHODS: From 2009 to 2012, active malaria surveillance without regard to symptoms was conducted on a random sample (n=3971) and pregnant women (n=589) during a cohort malaria study in a population of 24000. RESULTS: The overall subclinical Plasmodium falciparum malaria point prevalence was 1.0% (n=35), but was 3.2% (n=18) for pregnant women. The estimated incidence was 39.9 per 1000 person-years for the overall population. Unlike symptomatic malaria, with a marked seasonal pattern, subclinical infections did not show a seasonal increase during the rainy season. Sixty-nine percent of those with subclinical P. falciparum infections reported symptoms commonly associated with malaria compared to 18% without infection. Males, pregnant women, jhum cultivators, and those living closer to forests and at higher elevations had a higher prevalence of subclinical infection. CONCLUSIONS: Hypoendemic subclinical malaria infections were associated with a number of household and demographic factors, similar to symptomatic cases. Unlike clinical symptomatic malaria, which is highly seasonal, these actively detected infections were present year-round, made up the vast majority of infections at any given time, and likely acted as reservoirs for continued transmission.

Hemoglobin E and Glucose-6-Phosphate Dehydrogenase Deficiency and Plasmodium falciparum Malaria in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh.

Hemoglobin E is largely confined to south and southeast Asia. The association between hemoglobin E (HbE) and malaria is less clear than that of hemoglobin S and C. As part of a malaria study in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh, an initial random sample of 202 individuals showed that 39% and 49% of Marma and Khyang ethnic groups, respectively, were positive for either heterozygous or homozygous hemoglobin E. In this group, 6.4% were also found to be severely deficient and 35% mildly deficient for glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD). In a separate Plasmodium falciparum malaria case-uninfected control study, the odds of having homozygous hemoglobin E (HbEE) compared with normal hemoglobin (HbAA) were higher among malaria cases detected by passive surveillance than age and location matched uninfected controls (odds ratio [OR] = 5.0, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.07-46.93). The odds of heterozygous hemoglobin E (HbAE) compared with HbAA were similar between malaria cases and uninfected controls (OR = 0.71, 95% CI = 0.42-1.19). No association by hemoglobin type was found in the initial parasite density or the proportion parasite negative after 2 days of artemether/lumefantrine treatment. HbEE, but not HbAE status was associated with increased passive case detection of malaria.

The practice of jhum cultivation and its relationship to Plasmodium falciparum infection in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh.

Malaria is endemic in the Chittagong Hill Districts of southeastern Bangladesh. Previous epidemiological analyses identified the agricultural practice of jhum cultivation as a potential risk factor for malaria infection. We conducted qualitative interviews with jhum cultivators and surveillance workers to describe jhum cultivation and used demographic and malaria surveillance in two study unions from May of 2010 to August of 2012 to better understand the relationship between jhum cultivation and malaria infection. Qualitative interviews revealed that jhum cultivation is conducted on remote, steep hillsides by ethnic tribal groups. Quantitative analyses found that adult jhum cultivators and individuals who live in the same residence had significantly higher incidence rates of symptomatic Plasmodium falciparum infection compared with non-cultivators. These results confirm that jhum cultivation is an independent risk factor for malaria infection and underscore the need for malaria testing and treatment services to reach remote populations in the Chittagong Hill Districts.

Asymptomatic Plasmodium falciparum malaria in pregnant women in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Pregnancy is a known risk factor for malaria which is associated with increased maternal and infant mortality and morbidity in areas of moderate-high malaria transmission intensity where Plasmodium falciparum predominates. The nature and impact of malaria, however, is not well understood in pregnant women residing in areas of low, unstable malaria transmission where P. falciparum and P. vivax co-exist. METHODS: A large longitudinal active surveillance study of malaria was conducted in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh. Over 32 months in 2010-2013, the period prevalence of asymptomatic P. falciparum infections was assessed by rapid diagnostic test and blood smear and compared among men, non-pregnant women and pregnant women. A subset of samples was tested for infection by PCR. Hemoglobin was assessed. Independent risk factors for malaria infection were determined using a multivariate logistic regression model. RESULTS: Total of 34 asymptomatic P. falciparum infections were detected by RDT/smear from 3,110 tests. The period prevalence of asymptomatic P. falciparum infection in pregnant women was 2.3%, compared to 0.5% in non-pregnant women and 0.9% in men. All RDT/smear positive samples that were tested by PCR were PCR-positive, and PCR detected additional 35 infections that were RDT/smear negative. In a multivariate logistic regression analysis, pregnant women had 5.4-fold higher odds of infection as compared to non-pregnant women. Malaria-positive pregnant women, though asymptomatic, had statistically lower hemoglobin than those without malaria or pregnancy. Asymptomatic malaria was found to be evenly distributed across space and time, in contrast to symptomatic infections which tend to cluster. CONCLUSION: Pregnancy is a risk factor for asymptomatic P. falciparum infection in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh, and pregnancy and malaria interact to heighten the effect of each on hemoglobin. The even distribution of asymptomatic malaria, without temporal and spatial clustering, may have critical implications for malaria elimination strategies.

Malaria hotspots drive hypoendemic transmission in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Malaria is endemic in 13 of 64 districts of Bangladesh, representing a population at risk of about 27 million people. The highest rates of malaria in Bangladesh occur in the Chittagong Hill Districts, and Plasmodium falciparum (predominately chloroquine resistant) is the most prevalent species. METHODS: The objective of this research was to describe the epidemiology of symptomatic P. falciparum malaria in an area of Bangladesh following the introduction of a national malaria control program. We carried out surveillance for symptomatic malaria due to P. falciparum in two demographically defined unions of the Chittagong Hill Districts in Bangladesh, bordering western Myanmar, between October 2009 and May 2012. The association between sociodemographics and temporal and climate factors with symptomatic P. falciparum infection over two years of surveillance data was assessed. Risk factors for infection were determined using a multivariate regression model. RESULTS: 472 cases of symptomatic P. falciparum malaria cases were identified among 23,372 residents during the study period. Greater than 85% of cases occurred during the rainy season from May to October, and cases were highly clustered geographically within these two unions with more than 80% of infections occurring in areas that contain approximately one-third of the total population. Risk factors statistically associated with infection in a multivariate logistic regression model were living in the areas of high incidence, young age, and having an occupation including jhum cultivation and/or daily labor. Use of long lasting insecticide-treated bed nets was high (89.3%), but its use was not associated with decreased incidence of infection. CONCLUSION: Here we show that P. falciparum malaria continues to be hypoendemic in the Chittagong Hill Districts of Bangladesh, is highly seasonal, and is much more common in certain geographically limited hot spots and among certain occupations.