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BACKGROUND: In the high disease burden and resource-constrained contexts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), health workers experience a range of psychosocial stressors that leave them vulnerable to developing burnout, which can reduce service quality and negatively impact their own health and wellbeing. As universal testing and treatment (UTT) for HIV scales up across SSA, we sought to understand the implications of this human resource-intensive approach to HIV prevention to inform decision-making about health workforce staffing and support needs. METHODS: Using the Maslach Burnout Inventory-Human Services Survey (MBI-HSS), we assessed the prevalence of three domains of burnout-emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, and personal accomplishment-among three cadres of health workers delivering health services in areas receiving a UTT intervention in Zambia and South Africa. These cadres included health facility workers (n = 478), community health workers (n = 159), and a study-specific cadre of community HIV care providers (n = 529). We used linear regression to assess risk factors associated with emotional exhaustion, the only domain with sufficient variation in our sample. RESULTS: The MBI-HSS was completed by 1499/2153 eligible participants (69.6% response rate). Less than 1% of health workers met Maslach's definition for burnout. All groups of health workers reported lower levels of emotional exhaustion than found in previous studies of this type (mean score scores ranged from 10.7 to 15.4 out of 54 across health cadres). Higher emotional exhaustion was associated with higher educational attainment (ßadj = 2.24, 95% CI 0.76 to 3.72), greater years providing HIV services (ßadj = 0.20, 95% CI 0.03 to 0.36), and testing negative for HIV at last HIV test (ßadj = - 3.88 - 95% CI 5.69 to - 2.07). Working as a CHW was significantly associated with lower emotional exhaustion (ßadj = - 2.52, 95% CI - 4.69 to - 0.35). Among all health workers, irrespective of HIV status, witnessing stigmatizing behaviors towards people living with HIV among their co-workers was associated with significantly increased emotional exhaustion (ßadj = 3.38, 95% CI 1.99 to 4.76). CONCLUSIONS: The low level of burnout detected among health workers is reassuring. However, it remains important to assess how UTT may affect levels of emotional exhaustion among health workers over time, particularly in the context of emerging global pandemics, as burnout may impact the quality of HIV services they provide and their own mental health and wellbeing. Interventions to reduce HIV stigma in health facilities may protect against emotional exhaustion among health workers, as well as interventions to increase mindfulness and resilience among health workers at risk of burnout. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT01900977.
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Agotamiento Profesional , Infecciones por VIH , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Zambia/epidemiología , Agotamiento Profesional/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/psicología , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Femenino , Masculino , Sudáfrica/epidemiología , Adulto , Prevalencia , Personal de Salud/psicología , Factores de Riesgo , Persona de Mediana Edad , Agentes Comunitarios de Salud/psicología , DespersonalizaciónRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: Transfeminine people in South Africa have a high HIV risk due to structural, behavioural, and psychosocial factors. Transfeminine people and feminine identifying men who have sex with men (MSM) are often conflated or grouped with transgender or MSM categories in HIV service programming, although they don't necessarily identify as either. We aimed to investigate gender expression among feminine identifying people who were assigned male at birth. We examined how local conceptualizations of sexuality and gender intersect with the key population label of 'transgender' imported into local HIV programming. METHODS: A qualitative cohort nested within the HPTN 071 (PopART) trial included longitudinal, in-depth interviews with eight transfeminine people (four who disclosed as living with HIV). Data were collected approximately every six weeks between January 2016 and October 2017. We used a combination of thematic analysis and case study descriptions to explore gender identification among participants. RESULTS: Of the eight participants, only one accepted 'transgender' as a label, and even she used varying terms at different times to describe her identity. For participants, a feminine identity included dressing in normatively feminine clothes; using feminine terms, pronouns and names; and adopting stereotypically feminine mannerisms. Participants would switch between typically feminine and masculine norms in response to contextual cues and audience. For example, some participants accepted identification as masculine gay men amongst their family members. Among peers, they expressed their identity through typically more effeminate gender characteristics, for example self-identifying as "femgay". With partners they often also took on a feminine identity role, for example identifying as women in sexual and romantic relationships (meaning they viewed and expressed themselves as the feminine partner in the relationship). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings are amongst the first exploratory and descriptive data of transfeminine people in South Africa. We show how transfeminine people navigate fluid gender identities that could pose a challenge for accessing and utilizing HIV services that are currently set up for transgender individuals or MSM. More work needs to be done to understand and respond to the diverse and shifting ways people experience their gender identities in this high HIV burden context.
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Identidad de Género , Infecciones por VIH , Investigación Cualitativa , Personas Transgénero , Humanos , Sudáfrica , Masculino , Personas Transgénero/psicología , Personas Transgénero/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Infecciones por VIH/psicología , Adulto , Estudios Longitudinales , Adulto Joven , Entrevistas como AsuntoAsunto(s)
Equidad en Salud , Humanos , Salud Global , Política de Salud , Disparidades en el Estado de SaludRESUMEN
The human right to health is universal and non-exclusionary, supporting health in full, and for all. Despite advances in health systems globally, 3.6 billion people lack access to essential health services. Women and girls are disadvantaged when it comes to benefiting from quality health services, owing to social norms, unequal power in relationships, lack of consideration beyond their reproductive roles and poverty. Self-care interventions, including medicines and diagnostics, which offer an additional option to facility-based care, can improve the autonomy and agency of women in managing their own health. However, tackling challenges such as stigma is essential to avoid scenarios in which self-care interventions provide more choice for those who already benefit from access to quality healthcare, and leave behind those with the greatest need. This Perspective explores the opportunities that self-care interventions offer to advance the health and well-being of women with an approach grounded in human rights, gender equality and equity.
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Autocuidado , Salud de la Mujer , Humanos , Femenino , Pobreza , Derechos de la MujerRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: "Programme science" deploys scientific methods to address questions that are a priority to support the impact of public health programmes. As such, programme science responds to the challenges of making such studies: (1) feasible to undertake, (2) useful, (3) rigorous, (4) real-world-relevant, (5) informative, and undertaken by (6) equitable partnerships. The acronym "FURRIE" is proposed to describe this set of six challenges. This paper discusses selected HIV/STI (sexually transmitted infection) programme science case studies to illustrate how programme science rises to the FURRIE challenges. DISCUSSION: One way in which programme science is made more feasible is through the analysis and interpretation of data collected through service delivery. For some questions, these data can be augmented through methods that reach potential clients of services who have not accessed services or been lost to follow-up. Process evaluation can enhance the usefulness of programme science by studying implementation processes, programme-client interactions and contextual factors. Ensuring rigour by limiting bias and confounding in the real-world context of programme science studies requires methodological innovation. Striving for scientific rigour can also have the unintended consequence of creating a gap between what happens in a study, and what happens in the "real-world." Community-led monitoring is one approach to grounding data collection in the real-world experience of clients. Evaluating complex, context-specific strategies to strengthen health outcomes in a way that is informative for other settings requires clear specification of the intervention packages that are planned and delivered in practice. Programme science provides a model for equitable partnership through co-leadership between programmes, researchers and the communities they serve. CONCLUSIONS: Programme science addresses the FURRIE challenges, thereby improving programme impact and ultimately health outcomes and health equity. The adoption and adaptation of the types of novel programme science approaches showcased here should be promoted within and beyond the HIV/STI field.
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Infecciones por VIH , Humanos , Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual , Evaluación de Programas y Proyectos de Salud/métodosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: In 2017, Blantyre district had the highest adult HIV prevalence in Malawi (17.7%) and lowest viral suppression (60%). In response, the Ministry of Health expanded prevention and treatment services. We assessed whether outreach to social venues could identify individuals with increased HIV acquisition risk or with unsuppressed HIV not currently reached by clinic-based services. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional bio-behavioral survey in Blantyre, Malawi, from January to March 2022. We visited social venues where people meet new sexual partners and government clinics providing HIV testing or STI screening. Participants aged > 15 years were interviewed, and tested for HIV infection if not on ART. HIV recency tests were performed on those testing positive, and dried blood spots (DBS) was collected to quantify viral load and also to identify acute infection in those with HIV- results. RESULTS: HIV prevalence (18.5% vs 8.3%) and unsuppressed HIV infection (3.9% vs 1.7%) were higher among venue-recruited (n=1802) compared with clinic-recruited participants(n=2313). Among PLHIV at both clinics (n=199) and venues (n=289), 79% were virally suppressed. Few had acute(n=1) or recent infection(n=8). Among women, HIV prevalence was four times higher (38.9% venue vs 8.9% clinic). At clinics, PLHIV reporting visiting venues were less likely to be suppressed (54.6 vs 82.6%). More men at venues than at clinics reported paying for sex (49% vs 30%) or having multiple sex partners in the past 4 weeks (32% vs 16%). CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced venue-based prevention and testing for men and women could reduce treatment lapses, HIV treatment outcomes and reduce onward transmission.
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BACKGROUND: HIV prevalence and incidence has declined in East, Central, and Southern Africa (ECSA), but remains high among female sex workers (FSWs). Sex worker programmes have the potential to considerably increase access to HIV testing, prevention, and treatment. We aimed to quantify these improvements by modelling the potential effect of sex worker programmes at two different intensities on HIV incidence and key health outcomes, and assessed the programmes' potential cost-effectiveness in order to help inform HIV policy decisions. METHODS: Using a model previously used to review policy decisions in ECSA, we assumed a low-intensity sex worker programme had run from 2010 until 2023; this resulted in care disadvantages among FSWs being reduced, and also increased testing, condom use, and willingness to take pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). After 2023, three policy options were considered: discontinuation, continuation, and a scale-up of the programme to high-intensity, which would have a broader reach, and higher influences on condom use, antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence, testing, and PrEP use. Outputs of the key outcomes (the percentage of FSWs who were diagnosed with HIV, on ART, and virally suppressed; the percentage of FSWs with zero condomless partners, and HIV incidence) were compared in 2030. The maximum cost for a sex worker programme to be cost-effective was calculated over a 50-year time period and in the context of 10 million adults. The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted from a health-care perspective; costs and disability-adjusted life-years were both discounted to present US$ values at 3% per annum. FINDINGS: Compared with continuing a low-intensity sex worker programme until 2030, discontinuation of the programme was calculated to result in a lower percentage of FSWs diagnosed (median 88·75% vs 91·37%; median difference compared to continuation of a low-intensity programme [90% range] 2·03 [-4·49 to 10·98]), a lower percentage of those diagnosed currently taking ART (86·35% vs 88·89%; 2·38 [-3·69 to 13·42]), and a lower percentage of FSWs on ART with viral suppression (87·49% vs 88·96%; 1·17 [-6·81 to 11·53]). Discontinuation of a low-intensity programme also resulted in an increase in HIV incidence among FSWs from 5·06 per 100 person-years (100 p-y; 90% range 0·52 to 22·21) to 4·05 per 100 p-y (0·21 to 21·15). Conversely, comparing a high-intensity sex worker programme until 2030 with discontinuation of the programme resulted in a higher percentage of FSWs diagnosed (median 95·81% vs 88·75; median difference compared to discontinuation [90% range] 6·36 [0·60 to 18·63]), on ART (93·93 vs 86.35%; median difference 7·13 [-0·65 to 26·48]), and with viral suppression (93·21% vs 87·49; median difference 7·13 [-0·65 to 26·48]). A high-intensity programme also resulted in HIV incidence in FSWs declining to 2·23 per 100 p-y (0·00 to 14·44), from 5·06 per 100 p-y (0·52 to 22·21) if the programme was discontinued. In the context of 10 million adults over a 50-year time period and a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per disability-adjusted life-year averted, $34 million per year can be spent for a high-intensity programme to be cost-effective. INTERPRETATION: A sex worker programme, even with low-level interventions, has a positive effect on key outputs for FSWs. A high-intensity programme has a considerably higher effect; HIV incidence among FSW and in the general population can be substantially reduced, and should be considered for implementation by policy makers. FUNDING: Wellcome Trust.
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Análisis Costo-Beneficio , Infecciones por VIH , Trabajadores Sexuales , Humanos , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por VIH/transmisión , Femenino , Trabajadores Sexuales/estadística & datos numéricos , África Austral/epidemiología , África Oriental/epidemiología , África Central/epidemiología , Adulto , Incidencia , Evaluación de Programas y Proyectos de SaludRESUMEN
INTRODUCTION: We used a Programme Science platform, to generate evidence to support the implementation of programmes for sex workers in Africa. Female sex workers are estimated to make up 1.6% (1.3%-1.8%) of the population of women aged 15-49 years in Zimbabwe. We highlight how programme science can be used to help distinguish between when, where and with whom programmes need to be implemented and discuss two case studies that exemplify implementing better (Case study 1 (1 June 2019-30 June 2021) Optimizing implementation of a risk differentiated microplanning intervention) and implementing differently (Case study 2 (1 October 2016-30 September 2022) Reorientating implementation of DREAMS for young women selling sex). METHODS: Zimbabwe's nationally scaled programme for sex workers was established in 2009 in partnership with sex workers to provide comprehensive services for sex workers and generate evidence for programme design, implementation and scale up. Since inception, comprehensive data have been collected from all sex workers seeking services. As the scope of service provision has expanded so has the scope of data collection and analysis. At enrolment, sex workers are assigned an alphanumeric unique identifier which links consultations within and across programme sites. We conduct descriptive analyses of the Key Population (KP) programme data to guide programme implementation and redesign, embedding programmatic qualitative enquiry as required. RESULTS: Two case studies describing different approaches to programme optimization are presented. In the first, an optimization exercise was used to strengthen programme implementation ensuring that the KP programme got back on track after SARS-COV-2. In the second, an in-depth review of research and programme data led to a re-orientation of the DREAMS programme to ensure that young women at the highest risk of HIV acquisition were enrolled and had access to DREAMS social support interventions in turn strengthening their uptake of HIV prevention. CONCLUSIONS: Optimizing and sustaining HIV care and treatment programmes requires effective delivery with sufficient scale and intensity for population impact. Our programme science approach guided the scale up of the KP programme in Zimbabwe, providing evidence to support strategy, implementation and ongoing management, and importantly helping us distinguish between when we needed to just implement, implement better or implement differently.
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Infecciones por VIH , Trabajadores Sexuales , Humanos , Zimbabwe/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Infecciones por VIH/transmisión , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Trabajadores Sexuales/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Adolescente , Adulto Joven , Adulto , Persona de Mediana Edad , Trabajo Sexual/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Women who engage in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa have a high risk of acquiring HIV infection. HIV incidence has declined among all women in sub-Saharan Africa, but trends among women who engage in sex work are poorly characterised. We synthesised data on HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work in sub-Saharan Africa and compared these with the total female population to understand relative incidence and trends over time. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 1990, to Feb 28, 2024, and grey literature for studies that reported empirical estimates of HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work in any sub-Saharan Africa country. We calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) compared with total female population incidence estimates matched for age, district, and year, did a meta-analysis of IRRs, and used a continuous mixed-effects model to estimate changes in IRR over time. FINDINGS: From 32 studies done between 1985 and 2020, 2194 new HIV infections were observed among women who engage in sex work over 51â490 person-years. Median HIV incidence was 4·3 per 100 person years (IQR 2·8-7·0 per 100 person-years). Incidence among women who engage in sex work was eight times higher than matched total population women (IRR 7·8 [95% CI 5·1-11·8]), with larger relative difference in western and central Africa (19·9 [9·6-41·0]) than in eastern and southern Africa (4·9 [3·4-7·1]). There was no evidence that IRRs changed over time (IRR per 5 years: 0·9 [0·7-1·2]). INTERPRETATION: Across sub-Saharan Africa, HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work remains disproportionately high compared with the total female population. However, constant relative incidence over time indicates HIV incidence among women who engage in sex work has declined at a similar rate. Location-specific data for women who engage in sex work incidence are sparse, but improved surveillance and standardisation of incidence measurement approaches could fill these gaps. Sustained and enhanced HIV prevention for women who engage in sex work is crucial to address continuing inequalities and ensure declines in new HIV infections. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, UK Research and Innovation, National Institutes of Health. TRANSLATION: For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Infecciones por VIH , Trabajadores Sexuales , Humanos , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , África del Sur del Sahara/epidemiología , Femenino , Incidencia , Trabajadores Sexuales/estadística & datos numéricos , Trabajo Sexual/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Female sex workers remain disproportionately affected by HIV. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of risk-differentiated, peer-led support for female sex workers in Zimbabwe on the risk of HIV acquisition and HIV transmission from sex among female sex workers. METHODS: In this cluster randomised, open-label, controlled study, 22 clinics dedicated to female sex workers co-located in government health facilities throughout Zimbabwe were allocated (1:1, through restricted randomisation) to usual care or AMETHIST intervention. Usual care comprised HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), referral to government antiretroviral therapy (ART) services, contraception, condoms, syndromic management of sexually transmitted infections, health education, legal advice, and peer support. AMETHIST added peer-led microplanning tailored to individuals' risk and participatory self-help groups. All cisgender women (aged >18 years) who had sold sex within the past 30 days and lived or worked within trial cluster areas were eligible. Intervention status was not masked to programme implementers but was masked to survey teams and laboratory staff. After 28 months, a respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey was done in the female sex worker population around each clinic, which measured the primary outcome, the combined proportion of female sex workers in the surveyed population at risk of transmitting HIV (ie, were HIV positive, not virally suppressed, and not consistently using condoms) or at risk of acquiring HIV (ie, were HIV negative and not consistently using condoms or PrEP). We report prespecified analyses of the disaggregated proportions of female sex workers in the surveyed population at risk of either transmission or acquisition of HIV. Analyses were prespecified, RDS-weighted, and age-adjusted. This trial is registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, PACTR202007818077777. FINDINGS: The AMETHIST intervention was started on May 15, 2019, and data were collected from June 1, 2019, until Dec 13, 2021. The RDS survey was done from Oct 18 to Dec 13, 2021, with 2137 women included in the usual care group (11 clusters) and 2131 in the AMETHIST intervention group (11 clusters) after excluding survey seeds (n=132) and women with missing key data (n=44). 1973 (46·2%) of the 4268 female sex workers surveyed were living with HIV; of these, 863 (93·5%; RDS-adjusted) of 931 women in the intervention group and 927 (88·8%) of 1042 in the usual care group were virologically suppressed. 287 (22·4%) of 1200 HIV-negative women in the intervention group and 194 (15·7%) of 1096 in the usual care group reported currently taking PrEP, of whom only two (0·4%) of 569 had protective tenofovir diphosphate concentrations in dried blood spots (>700 fmol/dried blood punch). There was no effect of the intervention on the primary endpoint of risk of both HIV transmission and acquisition (intervention group n=1156/2131, RDS-adjusted proportion 55·3%; usual care group n=1104/2137, RDS-adjusted proportion 52·7%; age-adjusted risk difference -0·9%, 95% CI -5·7% to 3·9%, p=0·70). For the secondary outcomes, the proportion of women living with HIV at risk of transmission was low and significantly reduced in the intervention group (n=63/931, RDS-adjusted proportion 5·8%) compared with the usual care group (103/1041, 10·4%), with an age-adjusted risk difference of -5·5% (95% CI -8·2% to -2·9%, p=0·0003). Risk of acquisition among HIV-negative women was similar in the intervention (n=1093/1200, RDS-adjusted proportion 92·1%) and the usual care group (1001/1096, 92·2%), with an age-adjusted risk difference of -0·6% (95% CI -4·6 to 3·4, p=0·74). INTERPRETATION: There was no overall benefit of the intervention on combined risk of transmission or acquisition. Viral load suppression in women living with HIV was high and appeared to be further improved by AMETHIST, suggesting potential for impressive uptake and adherence to ART in vulnerable and mobile populations. Sustaining treatment and reinvigorating prevention remain crucial. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. TRANSLATIONS: For the Shona and Ndebele translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Infecciones por VIH , Trabajadores Sexuales , Humanos , Femenino , Zimbabwe/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Infecciones por VIH/transmisión , Trabajadores Sexuales/estadística & datos numéricos , Adulto , Adulto Joven , Análisis por Conglomerados , Profilaxis Pre-Exposición/estadística & datos numéricos , Profilaxis Pre-Exposición/métodosRESUMEN
People living with HIV (PLHIV) report lower health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) than HIV-negative people. HIV stigma may contribute to this. We explored the association between HIV stigma and HRQoL among PLHIV. We used cross-sectional data from 3991 randomly selected PLHIV who were surveyed in 2017-2018 for HPTN 071 (PopART), a cluster randomised trial in Zambia and South Africa. Participants were 18-44 years, had laboratory-confirmed HIV infection, and knew their status. HRQoL was measured using the EuroQol-5-dimensions-5-levels (EQ-5D-5L) questionnaire. Stigma outcomes included: internalised stigma, stigma experienced in the community, and stigma experienced in healthcare settings. Associations were examined using logistic regression. Participants who had experienced community stigma (n = 693/3991) had higher odds of reporting problems in at least one HRQoL domain, compared to those who had not (adjusted odds ratio, aOR: 1.51, 95% confidence interval, 95% Cl: 1.16-1.98, p = 0.002). Having experienced internalised stigma was also associated with reporting problems in at least one HRQoL domain (n = 552/3991, aOR: 1.98, 95% CI: 1.54-2.54, p < 0.001). However, having experienced stigma in a healthcare setting was less common (n = 158/3991) and not associated with HRQoL (aOR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.68-1.58, p = 0.850). A stronger focus on interventions for internalised stigma and stigma experienced in the community is required.
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Infecciones por VIH , Calidad de Vida , Estigma Social , Humanos , Infecciones por VIH/psicología , Infecciones por VIH/epidemiología , Masculino , Femenino , Adulto , Estudios Transversales , Adolescente , Adulto Joven , Zambia/epidemiología , Sudáfrica/epidemiología , Encuestas y CuestionariosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The distribution of new HIV infections among key populations, including female sex workers (FSWs), gay men and other men who have sex with men (MSM), and people who inject drugs (PWID) are essential information to guide an HIV response, but data are limited in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We analyzed empirically derived and mathematical model-based estimates of HIV incidence among key populations and compared with the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) estimates. METHODS: We estimated HIV incidence among FSW and MSM in SSA by combining meta-analyses of empirical key population HIV incidence relative to the total population incidence with key population size estimates (KPSE) and HIV prevalence. Dynamic HIV transmission model estimates of HIV incidence and percentage of new infections among key populations were extracted from 94 country applications of 9 mathematical models. We compared these with UNAIDS-reported distribution of new infections, implied key population HIV incidence and incidence-to-prevalence ratios. RESULTS: Across SSA, empirical FSW HIV incidence was 8.6-fold (95% confidence interval: 5.7 to 12.9) higher than total population female 15-39 year incidence, and MSM HIV incidence was 41.8-fold (95% confidence interval: 21.9 to 79.6) male 15-29 year incidence. Combined with KPSE, these implied 12% of new HIV infections in 2021 were among FSW and MSM (5% and 7% respectively). In sensitivity analysis varying KPSE proportions within 95% uncertainty range, the proportion of new infections among FSW and MSM was between 9% and 19%. Insufficient data were available to estimate PWID incidence rate ratios. Across 94 models, median proportion of new infections among FSW, MSM, and PWID was 6.4% (interquartile range 3.2%-11.7%), both much lower than the 25% reported by UNAIDS. CONCLUSION: Empirically derived and model-based estimates of HIV incidence confirm dramatically higher HIV risk among key populations in SSA. Estimated proportions of new infections among key populations in 2021 were sensitive to population size assumptions and were substantially lower than estimates reported by UNAIDS.