Validation studies of verbal autopsy methods: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Verbal autopsy (VA) has emerged as an increasingly popular technique to assign cause of death in parts of the world where the majority of deaths occur without proper medical certification. The purpose of this study was to examine the key characteristics of studies that have attempted to validate VA cause of death against an established cause of death. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted by searching the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane-library, and Scopus electronic databases. Included studies contained 1) a VA component, 2) a validation component, and 3) original analysis or re-analysis. Characteristics of VA studies were extracted. A total of 527 studies were assessed, and 481 studies screened to give 66 studies selected for data extraction. RESULTS: Sixty-six studies were included from multiple countries. Ten studies used an existing database. Sixteen studies used the World Health Organization VA questionnaire and 5 studies used the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium VA questionnaire. Physician certification was used in 36 studies and computer coded methods were used in 14 studies. Thirty-seven studies used high level comparator data with detailed laboratory investigations. CONCLUSION: Most studies found VA to be an effective cause of death assignment method and compared VA cause of death to a high-quality established cause of death. Nonetheless, there were inconsistencies in the methodologies of the validation studies, and many used poor quality comparison cause of death data. Future VA validation studies should adhere to consistent methodological criteria so that policymakers can easily interpret the findings to select the most appropriate VA method. PROSPERO REGISTRATION: CRD42020186886.

Effectiveness of training interventions to improve quality of medical certification of cause of death: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Valid cause of death data are essential for health policy formation. The quality of medical certification of cause of death (MCCOD) by physicians directly affects the utility of cause of death data for public policy and hospital management. Whilst training in correct certification has been provided for physicians and medical students, the impact of training is often unknown. This study was conducted to systematically review and meta-analyse the effectiveness of training interventions to improve the quality of MCCOD. METHODS: This review was registered in the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO; Registration ID: CRD42020172547) and followed Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. CENTRAL, Ovid MEDLINE and Ovid EMBASE databases were searched using pre-defined search strategies covering the eligibility criteria. Studies were selected using four screening questions using the Distiller-SR software. Risk of bias assessments were conducted with GRADE recommendations and ROBINS-I criteria for randomised and non-randomised interventions, respectively. Study selection, data extraction and bias assessments were performed independently by two reviewers with a third reviewer to resolve conflicts. Clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity assessments were conducted. Meta-analyses were performed with Review Manager 5.4 software using the 'generic inverse variance method' with risk difference as the pooled estimate. A 'summary of findings' table was prepared using the 'GRADEproGDT' online tool. Sensitivity analyses and narrative synthesis of the findings were also performed. RESULTS: After de-duplication, 616 articles were identified and 21 subsequently selected for synthesis of findings; four underwent meta-analysis. The meta-analyses indicated that selected training interventions significantly reduced error rates among participants, with pooled risk differences of 15-33%. Robustness was identified with the sensitivity analyses. The findings of the narrative synthesis were similarly suggestive of favourable outcomes for both physicians and medical trainees. CONCLUSIONS: Training physicians in correct certification improves the accuracy and policy utility of cause of death data. Investment in MCCOD training activities should be considered as a key component of strategies to improve vital registration systems given the potential of such training to substantially improve the quality of cause of death data.

Improving medical certification of cause of death: effective strategies and approaches based on experiences from the Data for Health Initiative.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely cause of death (COD) data are essential for informed public health policymaking. Medical certification of COD generally provides the majority of COD data in a population and is an essential component of civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. Accurate completion of the medical certificate of cause of death (MCCOD) should be a relatively straightforward procedure for physicians, but mistakes are common. Here, we present three training strategies implemented in five countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative at the University of Melbourne (UoM) and evaluate the impact on the quality of certification. METHODS: The three training strategies evaluated were (1) training of trainers (TOT) in the Philippines, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka; (2) direct training of physicians by the UoM D4H in Papua New Guinea (PNG); and (3) the implementation of an online and basic training strategy in Peru. The evaluation involved an assessment of MCCODs before and after training using an assessment tool developed by the University of Melbourne. RESULTS: The TOT strategy led to reductions in incorrectly completed certificates of between 28% in Sri Lanka and 40% in the Philippines. Following direct training of physicians in PNG, the reduction in incorrectly completed certificates was 30%. In Peru, the reduction in incorrect certificates was 30% after implementation and training on an online system only and 43% after training on both the online system and basic medical certification principles. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that a variety of training strategies can produce benefits in the quality of certification, but further improvements are possible. The experiences of D4H suggest several aspects of the strategies that should be further developed to improve outcomes, particularly key stakeholder engagement from early in the intervention and local committees to oversee activities and support an improved culture in hospitals to support better diagnostic skills and practices.

Automated verbal autopsy: from research to routine use in civil registration and vital statistics systems.

BACKGROUND: The majority of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have adequate civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems to properly support health policy formulation. Verbal autopsy (VA), long used in research, can provide useful information on the cause of death (COD) in populations where physicians are not available to complete medical certificates of COD. Here, we report on the application of the SmartVA tool for the collection and analysis of data in several countries as part of routine CRVS activities. METHODS: Data from VA interviews conducted in 4 of 12 countries supported by the Bloomberg Philanthropies Data for Health (D4H) Initiative, and at different stages of health statistical development, were analysed and assessed for plausibility: Myanmar, Papua New Guinea (PNG), Bangladesh and the Philippines. Analyses by age- and cause-specific mortality fractions were compared to the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study data by country. VA interviews were analysed using SmartVA-Analyze-automated software that was designed for use in CRVS systems. The method in the Philippines differed from the other sites in that the VA output was used as a decision support tool for health officers. RESULTS: Country strategies for VA implementation are described in detail. Comparisons between VA data and country GBD estimates by age and cause revealed generally similar patterns and distributions. The main discrepancy was higher infectious disease mortality and lower non-communicable disease mortality at the PNG VA sites, compared to the GBD country models, which critical appraisal suggests may highlight real differences rather than implausible VA results. CONCLUSION: Automated VA is the only feasible method for generating COD data for many populations. The results of implementation in four countries, reported here under the D4H Initiative, confirm that these methods are acceptable for wide-scale implementation and can produce reliable COD information on community deaths for which little was previously known.

A prevalence survey of enteral parasites in preschool children in the Mangochi District of Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Helminthic and protozoan infections are common, particularly in low- or middle-income countries. Although an association between parasite carriage and markers of poor growth have been shown in some studies, systematic reviews have suggested only a modest impact of clearing carriage. The prevalence of these pathogens and the effect that they have on growth in preschool children has never been investigated in Malawi. METHODS: One hundred ninety-three children aged 0-72 months were randomly recruited from rural villages in the Mangochi district of Malawi. Formol-ether concentration was performed on stool and the samples examined with a light microscope. Anthropometric data was taken for each child and the haemoglobin measured with a point of care test. RESULTS: The mean age of the children was 2 years 4 months. Overall prevalence of intestinal parasite infection was 37.3%. Protozoa were found in 28.5% of children, while helminths were found in 8.8%. The most commonly found organisms were Giardia lambia (12.4%), Entamoeba coli (10.4%) and Hookworm species (3.6%). Stunting was seen in 47.8% of children, 12.9% were underweight and 5.0% were wasted. No significant association was found between markers of poor growth and infection with any intestinal parasite. CONCLUSIONS: We found that prevalence of helminth infection was low in preschool children living in the Mangochi district compared to international standards. However a significant proportion of the preschool population are infected with protozoa, particularly Giardia lambia. In this cohort, despite a significant prevalence of stunting, helminth infection was not significantly associated with any markers of poor growth. The significance of protozoal carriage and contribution to growth restriction in this context creates further avenues for future research.

Effect of azithromycin mass drug administration for trachoma on spleen rates in Gambian children.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of azithromycin mass drug administration regimens on spleen rates in children aged 0-5 years. METHODS: Clinical assessment of spleen size was carried out during a cluster-randomised trial of azithromycin mass treatment for trachoma elimination in The Gambia. Twenty-four communities received three annual mass treatments with azithromycin, and 24 communities received treatment at baseline only. RESULTS: At the 30-month follow-up, 3646 children aged 0-5 years had spleen examination and measurement. Palpable splenomegaly was significantly lower in annually treated vs. baseline-only treatment communities and in treated vs. untreated children at 24 months in the annual treatment arm. CONCLUSION: The results suggest an effect of azithromycin on spleen rates at the individual level and are most plausibly due to the antimalarial effects of azithromycin.

Immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of a half- versus full-dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) booster following a two-dose ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, BBIBP-CorV, or Gam-COVID-Vac priming schedule in Mongolia: a randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial.

Background: COVID-19 vaccine booster doses restore vaccine effectiveness lost from waning immunity and emerging variants. Fractional dosing may improve COVID-19 booster acceptability and uptake and will reduce the per-dose cost of COVID-19 booster programmes. We sought to quantify the immunogenicity, reactogenicity, and safety of a half-dose BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) booster relative to the standard formulation. Methods: This randomised, controlled, non-inferiority trial recruited adults in Mongolia primed with a two-dose homologous ChAdOx1 nCov-19 (Oxford-AstraZeneca, n = 129 participants), BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm (Beijing), n = 399), or Gam-COVID-Vac (Gamaleya, n = 70) schedule. Participants were randomised (1:1) to receive a 15 µg (half-dose) or 30 µg (full-dose) BNT162b2 booster. Participants and study staff assessing reactogenicity were blinded up to day 28. Co-primary endpoints were Wuhan-Hu-1 anti-spike S1 IgG seroresponse 28 days post-boosting and reactogenicity within 7 days of boosting. The non-inferiority margin for the absolute difference in seroresponse was -10%. Differences in seroresponse were estimated from logistic regression with marginal standardisation. Geometric mean ratios of IgG were also estimated. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05265065. Findings: Between May 27th and September 30th, 2022, 601 participants were randomized to full-dose BNT162b2 (n = 300) or half-dose (n = 301). 598 were included in safety analyses, and 587 in immunological analyses. The frequency of grade 3-4 reactions was similar between arms (half-dose: 4/299 [1.3%]; full-dose: 6/299 [2.0%]). Across all severity grades, half-dose recipients reported fewer local and systemic reactions (60% versus 72% and 25% versus 32%, respectively). Seroresponse was 84.7% (250/295) and 86.6% (253/292) in the half-dose and full-dose arms, respectively (Difference: -2.8%; 95% CI -7.7, 2.1). Geometric mean IgG titres were similar in those receiving full and half-dose boosters for the ChAdOx1 and BBIBP-CorV primed groups, but lower in the half-dose arm in Gam-COVID-Vac-primed participants (GMR: 0.71; 95% CI 0.54, 0.93). Interpretation: Half-dose BNT162b2 boosting elicited an immune response that was non-inferior to a full-dose, with fewer reactions, in adults primed with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BBIBP-CorV. Half-dose boosting may not be suitable in adults primed with Gam-COVID-Vac. Half-dose BNT162b2 boosting may be considered in populations primed with ChAdOx1 nCov-19 or BBIBP-CorV. Funding: Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI).

Considerations for vaccinating children against COVID-19.

COVID-19 vaccines have been introduced in children and adolescents in many countries. However, high levels of community transmission and infection-derived immunity make the decision to introduce COVID-19 vaccination of children in countries yet to do so particularly challenging. For example, other vaccine preventable diseases, including measles and polio, generally have far higher childhood morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) than COVID-19, and coverage with these vaccines has declined during the pandemic. Many countries are yet to introduce pneumococcal conjugate and rotavirus vaccines for children, which prevent common causes of childhood death, or human papillomavirus vaccine for adolescents. The Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines that have been widely tested in children and adolescents have a positive risk-benefit profile. However, the benefit is less compared with other life-saving vaccines in this age group, particularly in LMICs and settings with widespread infection-derived immunity. The resources required for rollout may also pose a considerable challenge in LMICs. In this paper, we describe COVID-19 in children, with a focus on LMICs, and summarise the published literature on safety, efficacy and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in children and adolescents. We highlight the complexity of decision-making regarding COVID-19 vaccination of children now that most of this low-risk population benefit from infection-derived immunity. We emphasise that at-risk groups should be prioritised for COVID-19 vaccination; and that if COVID-19 vaccines are introduced for children, the opportunity should be taken to improve coverage of routine childhood vaccines and preventative healthcare. Additionally, we highlight the paucity of epidemiological data in LMICs, and that for future epidemics, measures need to be taken to ensure equitable access to safe and efficacious vaccines before exposure to infection.

Impact of azithromycin mass drug administration on the antibiotic-resistant gut microbiome in children: a randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin is the primary strategy for global trachoma control efforts. Numerous studies have reported secondary effects of MDA with azithromycin, including reductions in childhood mortality, diarrhoeal disease and malaria. Most recently, the MORDOR clinical trial demonstrated that MDA led to an overall reduction in all-cause childhood mortality in targeted communities. There is however concern about the potential of increased antimicrobial resistance in treated communities. This study evaluated the impact of azithromycin MDA on the prevalence of gastrointestinal carriage of macrolide-resistant bacteria in communities within the MORDOR Malawi study, additionally profiling changes in the gut microbiome after treatment. For faecal metagenomics, 60 children were sampled prior to treatment and 122 children after four rounds of MDA, half receiving azithromycin and half placebo. RESULTS: The proportion of bacteria carrying macrolide resistance increased after azithromycin treatment. Diversity and global community structure of the gut was minimally impacted by treatment, however abundance of several species was altered by treatment. Notably, the putative human enteropathogen Escherichia albertii was more abundant after treatment. CONCLUSIONS: MDA with azithromycin increased carriage of macrolide-resistant bacteria, but had limited impact on clinically relevant bacteria. However, increased abundance of enteropathogenic Escherichia species after treatment requires further, higher resolution investigation. Future studies should focus on the number of treatments and administration schedule to ensure clinical benefits continue to outweigh costs in antimicrobial resistance carriage. Trial registration ClinicalTrial.gov, NCT02047981. Registered January 29th 2014, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02047981.

How advanced is the epidemiological transition in Papua New Guinea? New evidence from verbal autopsy.

BACKGROUND: Reliable cause of death (COD) data are not available for the majority of deaths in Papua New Guinea (PNG), despite their critical policy value. Automated verbal autopsy (VA) methods, involving an interview and automated analysis to diagnose causes of community deaths, have recently been trialled in PNG. Here, we report VA results from three sites and highlight the utility of these methods to generate information about the leading CODs in the country. METHODS: VA methods were introduced in one district in each of three provinces: Alotau in Milne Bay; Tambul-Nebilyer in Western Highlands; and Talasea in West New Britain. VA interviews were conducted using the Population Health Metrics Research Consortium (PHMRC) shortened questionnaire and analysed using the SmartVA automated diagnostic algorithm. RESULTS: A total of 1655 VAs were collected between June 2018 and November 2019, 87.0% of which related to deaths at age 12 years and over. Our findings suggest a continuing high proportion of deaths due to infectious diseases (27.0%) and a lower proportion of deaths due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) (50.8%) than estimated by the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017: 16.5% infectious diseases and 70.5% NCDs. The proportion of injury deaths was also high compared with GBD: 22.5% versus 13.0%. CONCLUSIONS: Health policy in PNG needs to address a 'triple burden' of high infectious mortality, rising NCDs and a high fraction of deaths due to injuries. This study demonstrates the potential of automated VA methods to generate timely, reliable and policy-relevant data on COD patterns in hard-to-reach populations in PNG.

Prevalence of nasopharyngeal Streptococcus pneumoniae carriage and resistance to macrolides in the setting of azithromycin mass drug administration: analysis from a cluster-randomised controlled trial in Malawi, 2015-17.

BACKGROUND: Azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) could reduce child mortality. However, macrolide resistance, which has generally been reported to develop after whole-community MDA for trachoma control, is a concern, and it has less commonly been studied in the context of treating children to reduce mortality. Here, we report on macrolide resistance after biannual azithromycin MDA at the Malawi site of the MORDOR study. METHODS: In the MORDOR cluster-randomised trial in Malawi, 30 communities in Mangochi District were randomly selected. Communities were randomly assigned to receive azithromycin or placebo by simple randomisation without stratification. Children aged 1-59 months were administered azithromycin 20 mg/kg or placebo as an oral suspension biannually for a total of four treatments in 2015-17. 1200 children (40 children per community) were randomly selected for nasopharyngeal swabs at baseline, 12 months (6 months after the second treatment visit), and 24 months (6 months after the fourth treatment visit). Samples were processed to culture Streptococcus pneumoniae. The primary outcome was the proportion of S pneumoniae isolates exhibiting macrolide resistance at 12 months and 24 months, assessed in the intention-to-treat population. The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02048007. FINDINGS: At baseline, 3467 (76%) of 4541 eligible children in the azithromycin group and 3107 (72%) of 4308 eligible children in the placebo group were treated. 564 nasopharyngeal swabs were taken from the azithromycin group and 563 from the placebo group, with similar numbers of swabs taken at 12 months and 24 months. In both groups at baseline, carriage of S pneumoniae was greater than 85% and the proportion of strains resistant to macrolides was 28%. At the 12-month follow-up, macrolide resistance was higher in the azithromycin group (36·9%, 95% CI 32·5-41·2) than in the placebo group (21·6%, 17·7-25·4; OR 2·26, 95% CI 1·46-3·49; p=0·0002). At 24 months, macrolide resistance remained higher in the azithromycin group (43·9%, 39·2-48·5) compared with placebo (32·8%, 28·5-37·1; OR 1·66, 1·15-2·40; p=0·0069). INTERPRETATION: These findings support previous evidence from trachoma MDA programmes and suggest that monitoring of macrolide resistance should remain a key component of azithromycin interventions for reducing child mortality. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Biannual Administrations of Azithromycin and the Gastrointestinal Microbiome of Malawian Children: A Nested Cohort Study Within a Randomized Controlled Trial.

Community-level mass treatment with azithromycin has been associated with a mortality benefit in children. However, antibiotic exposures result in disruption of the gut microbiota and repeated exposures may reduce recovery of the gut flora. We conducted a nested cohort study within the framework of a randomized controlled trial to examine associations between mass drug administration (MDA) with azithromycin and the gut microbiota of rural Malawian children aged between 1 and 59 months. Fecal samples were collected from the children at baseline and 6 months after two or four biannual rounds of azithromycin treatment. DNA was extracted from fecal samples and V4-16S rRNA sequencing used to characterize the gut microbiota. Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria were the dominant phyla while Faecalibacterium and Bifidobacterium were the most prevalent genera. There were no associations between azithromycin treatment and changes in alpha diversity, however, four biannual rounds of treatment were associated with increased abundance of Prevotella. The lack of significant changes in gut microbiota after four biannual treatments supports the use of mass azithromycin treatment to reduce mortality in children living in low- and middle-income settings.

Validation of SmartVA using conventional autopsy: A study of adult deaths in Brazil.

Background: Accurate cause of death data are essential to guide health policy. However, mortality surveillance is limited in many low-income countries. In such settings, verbal autopsy (VA) is increasingly used to provide population-level cause of death data. VAs are now widely interpreted using the automated algorithms SmartVA and InterVA. Here we use conventional autopsy as the gold standard to validate SmartVA methodology. Methods: This study included adult deaths from natural causes in São Paulo and Recife for which conventional autopsy was indicated. VA was conducted with a relative of the deceased using an amended version of the SmartVA instrument to suit the local context. Causes of death from VA were produced using the SmartVA-Analyze program. Physician coded verbal autopsy (PCVA), conducted on the same questionnaires, and Global Burden of Disease Study data were used as additional comparators. Cause of death data were grouped into 10 broad causes for the validation due to the real-world utility of VA lying in identifying broad population cause of death patterns. Findings: The study included 2,060 deaths in São Paulo and 1,079 in Recife. The cause specific mortality fractions (CSMFs) estimated using SmartVA were broadly similar to conventional autopsy for: cardiovascular diseases (46.8% vs 54.0%, respectively), cancers (10.6% vs 11.4%), infections (7.0% vs 10.4%) and chronic respiratory disease (4.1% vs 3.7%), causes accounting for 76.1% of the autopsy dataset. The SmartVA CSMF estimates were lower than autopsy for "Other NCDs" (7.8% vs 14.6%) and higher for diabetes (13.0% vs 6.6%). CSMF accuracy of SmartVA compared to autopsy was 84.5%. CSMF accuracy for PCVA was 93.0%. Interpretation: The results suggest that SmartVA can, with reasonable accuracy, predict the broad cause of death groups important to assess a population's epidemiological transition. VA remains a useful tool for understanding causes of death where medical certification is not possible.

Fecal biomarkers of environmental enteric dysfunction and the gut microbiota of rural Malawian children: An observational study.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is a subclinical condition of the gut characterized by changes in morphology and function with underlying chronic inflammatory responses. This study characterized composition and diversity of the gut microbiota in rural Malawian children with and without signs of EED. Fecal samples were collected from children aged 1-59 months. Neopterin, myeloperoxidase and alpha-1 antitrypsin concentrations were quantified by ELISA and combined to form a composite EED score using principal component analysis. DNA was extracted from fecal samples and V4-16S rRNA gene sequencing was used to characterize the gut microbiota. The concentrations of all three biomarkers decreased with increasing age, which is consistent with other studies of children living in similar low-income settings. Firmicutes, Bacteroidetes, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria were the dominant phyla while Faecalibacterium and Bifidobacterium were the most prevalent genera. Increased alpha diversity was associated with a reduction in neopterin concentration. Microbiota composition was different between fecal samples with low and high composite EED scores; increased abundance of Succinivibrio was associated with reduced composite EED scores.

Integrating community-based verbal autopsy into civil registration and vital statistics: lessons learnt from five countries.

This paper describes the lessons from scaling up a verbal autopsy (VA) intervention to improve data about causes of death according to a nine-domain framework: governance, design, operations, human resources, financing, infrastructure, logistics, information technologies and data quality assurance. We use experiences from China, Myanmar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines and Solomon Islands to explore how VA has been successfully implemented in different contexts, to guide other countries in their VA implementation. The governance structure for VA implementation comprised a multidisciplinary team of technical experts, implementers and staff at different levels within ministries. A staged approach to VA implementation involved scoping and mapping of death registration processes, followed by pretest and pilot phases which allowed for redesign before a phased scale-up. Existing health workforce in countries were trained to conduct the VA interviews as part of their routine role. Costs included training and compensation for the VA interviewers, information technology (IT) infrastructure costs, advocacy and dissemination, which were borne by the funding agency in early stages of implementation. The complexity of the necessary infrastructure, logistics and IT support required for VA increased with scale-up. Quality assurance was built into the different phases of the implementation. VA as a source of cause of death data for community deaths will be needed for some time. With the right technical and political support, countries can scale up this intervention to ensure ongoing collection of quality and timely information on community deaths for use in health planning and better monitoring of national and global health goals.

Diversity of epidemiological transition in the Pacific: Findings from the application of verbal autopsy in Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands.

BACKGROUND: Cause of death data are essential for rational health planning yet are not routinely available in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and Solomon Islands. Indirect estimation of cause of death patterns suggests these populations are epidemiologically similar, but such assessments are not based on direct evidence. METHODS: Verbal autopsy (VA) interviews were conducted at three sites in PNG and nationwide in Solomon Islands. Training courses were also facilitated to improve data from medical certificates of cause of death (MCCODs) in both countries. Data were categorised into broad groups of endemic and emerging conditions to aid assessment of the epidemiological transition. FINDINGS: Between 2017 and 2020, VAs were collected for 1,814 adult deaths in PNG and 819 adult deaths in Solomon Islands. MCCODs were analysed for 662 deaths in PNG and 1,408 deaths in Solomon Islands. The VA data suggest lower NCD mortality (48.8% versus 70.3%); higher infectious mortality (27.0% versus 18.3%) and higher injury mortality (24.5% versus 11.4%) in PNG compared to Solomon Islands. Higher infectious mortality in PNG was evident for both endemic and emerging infections. Higher NCD mortality in Solomon Islands reflected much higher emerging NCDs (43.6% vs 21.4% in PNG). A similar pattern was evident from the MCCOD data. INTERPRETATION: The cause of death patterns suggested by VA and MCCOD indicate that PNG is earlier in its epidemiological transition than Solomon Islands, with relatively higher infectious mortality and lower NCD mortality. Injury mortality was also particularly high in PNG.This study was funded by Bloomberg Philanthropies.

Effect of Mass Treatment with Azithromycin on Causes of Death in Children in Malawi: Secondary Analysis from the MORDOR Trial.

Recent evidence indicates mass drug administration with azithromycin may reduce child mortality. This study uses verbal autopsy (VA) to investigate the causes of individual deaths during the Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial in Malawi. Cluster randomization was performed as part of MORDOR. Biannual household visits were conducted to distribute azithromycin or placebo to children aged 1-59 months and update the census to identify deaths for VA. MORDOR was not powered to investigate mortality effects at individual sites, but the available evidence is presented here for hypothesis generation regarding the mechanism through which azithromycin may reduce child mortality. Automated VA analysis was performed to infer the likely cause of death using two major analysis programs, InterVA and SmartVA. A total of 334 communities were randomized to azithromycin or placebo, with more than 130,000 person-years of follow-up. During the study, there were 1,184 deaths, of which 1,131 were followed up with VA. Mortality was 9% lower in azithromycin-treated communities than in placebo communities (rate ratio 0.91 [95% CI: 0.79-1.05]; P = 0.20). The intention-to-treat analysis by cause using InterVA suggested fewer HIV/AIDS deaths in azithromycin-treated communities (rate ratio 0.70 [95% CI: 0.50-0.97]; P = 0.03) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.82 [95% CI: 0.60-1.12]; P = 0.22). The use of the SmartVA algorithm suggested fewer diarrhea deaths (rate ratio 0.71 [95% CI: 0.51-1.00]; P = 0.05) and fewer pneumonia deaths (rate ratio 0.58 [95% CI: 0.33-1.00]; P = 0.05). Although this study is not able to provide strong evidence, the data suggest that the mortality reduction during MORDOR in Malawi may have been due to effects on pneumonia and diarrhea or HIV/AIDS mortality.

Cost-Effectiveness of Mass Treatment with Azithromycin for Reducing Child Mortality in Malawi: Secondary Analysis from the MORDOR Trial.

The recent Macrolides Oraux pour Réduire les Décès avec un Oeil sur la Résistance (MORDOR) trial reported a reduction in child mortality following biannual azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA). Here, we investigate the financial costs and cost-effectiveness from the health provider perspective of azithromycin MDA at the MORDOR-Malawi study site. During MORDOR, a cluster-randomized trial involving biannual azithromycin MDA or placebo to children aged 1-59 months, fieldwork-related costs were collected, including personnel, transport, consumables, overheads, training, and supervision. Mortality rates in azithromycin- and placebo-treated clusters were calculated overall and for the five health zones of Mangochi district. These were used to estimate the number needed to treat to avert one death and the costs per death and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. The cost per dose of MDA was $0.74 overall, varying between $0.63 and $0.94 in the five zones. Overall, the number needed to treat to avert one death was 1,213 children; the cost per death averted was $898.47, and the cost per DALY averted was $9.98. In the three zones where mortality was lower in azithromycin-treated clusters, the number needed to treat to avert one death, cost per death averted, and cost per DALY averted, respectively, were as follows: 3,070, $2,899.24, and $32.31 in Monkey Bay zone; 1,530, $1,214.42, and $13.49 in Chilipa zone; and 344, $217.98, and $2.42 in Namwera zone. This study is a preliminary cost-effectiveness analysis that indicates azithromycin MDA for reducing child mortality has the potential to be highly cost-effective in some settings in Malawi, but the reasons for geographical variation in effectiveness require further investigation.

Effects of Biannual Azithromycin Mass Drug Administration on Malaria in Malawian Children: A Cluster-Randomized Trial.

Reductions in malaria morbidity have been reported following azithromycin mass drug administration (MDA) for trachoma. The recent Macrolides Oraux pour Reduire les Deces avec un Oeil sur la Resistance (MORDOR) trial reported a reduction in child mortality following biannual azithromycin MDA. Here, we investigate the effects of azithromycin MDA on malaria at the MORDOR-Malawi study site. A cluster-randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial, with 15 clusters per arm, was conducted. House-to-house census was updated biannually, and azithromycin or placebo syrup was distributed to children aged 1-59 months for a total of four biannual distributions. At baseline, 12-month, and 24-month follow-up visits, a random sample of 1,200 children was assessed for malaria with thick and thin blood smears and hemoglobin measurement. In the community-level analysis, there was no difference in the prevalence of parasitemia (1.0% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -8.2 to 6.1), gametocytemia (0.7% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -2.8 to 1.5), or anemia (1.7% lower in azithromycin-treated communities; 95% CI: -8.1 to 4.6) between placebo and azithromycin communities. Further interrogation of the data at the individual level, both per-protocol (including only those who received treatment 6 months previously) and by intention-to-treat, did not identify differences in parasitemia between treatment arms. In contrast to several previous reports, this study did not show an effect of azithromycin MDA on malaria parasitemia at the community or individual levels.