Twenty-first-century warming of a large Antarctic ice-shelf cavity by a redirected coastal current.

The Antarctic ice sheet loses mass at its fringes bordering the Southern Ocean. At this boundary, warm circumpolar water can override the continental slope front, reaching the grounding line through submarine glacial troughs and causing high rates of melting at the deep ice-shelf bases. The interplay between ocean currents and continental bathymetry is therefore likely to influence future rates of ice-mass loss. Here we show that a redirection of the coastal current into the Filchner Trough and underneath the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf during the second half of the twenty-first century would lead to increased movement of warm waters into the deep southern ice-shelf cavity. Water temperatures in the cavity would increase by more than 2 degrees Celsius and boost average basal melting from 0.2 metres, or 82 billion tonnes, per year to almost 4 metres, or 1,600 billion tonnes, per year. Our results, which are based on the output of a coupled ice-ocean model forced by a range of atmospheric outputs from the HadCM3 climate model, suggest that the changes would be caused primarily by an increase in ocean surface stress in the southeastern Weddell Sea due to thinning of the formerly consolidated sea-ice cover. The projected ice loss at the base of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf represents 80 per cent of the present Antarctic surface mass balance. Thus, the quantification of basal mass loss under changing climate conditions is important for projections regarding the dynamics of Antarctic ice streams and ice shelves, and global sea level rise.

Observational evidence for on-shelf heat transport driven by dense water export in the Weddell Sea.

The transport of oceanic heat towards the Antarctic continental margin is central to the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Recent modeling efforts challenge our view on where and how the on-shelf heat flux occurs, suggesting that it is largest where dense shelf waters cascade down the continental slope. Here we provide observational evidence supporting this claim. Using records from moored instruments, we link the downslope flow of dense water from the Filchner overflow to upslope and on-shelf flow of warm water.

Investigating Environmental Matrices for Use in Avian Influenza Virus Surveillance-Surface Water, Sediments, and Avian Fecal Samples.

Surveillance of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in wild water bird populations is important for early warning to protect poultry from incursions of high-pathogenicity (HP) AIV. Access to individual water birds is difficult and restricted and limits sampling depth. Here, we focused on environmental samples such as surface water, sediments, and environmentally deposited fresh avian feces as matrices for AIV detection. Enrichment of viral particles by ultrafiltration of 10-L surface water samples using Rexeed-25-A devices was validated using a bacteriophage ϕ6 internal control system, and AIV detection was attempted using real-time RT-PCR and virus isolation. While validation runs suggested an average enrichment of about 60-fold, lower values of 10 to 15 were observed for field water samples. In total 25/36 (60%) of water samples and 18/36 (50%) of corresponding sediment samples tested AIV positive. Samples were obtained from shallow water bodies in habitats with large numbers of waterfowl during an HPAIV epizootic. Although AIV RNA was detected in a substantial percentage of samples virus isolation failed. Virus loads in samples often were too low to allow further sub- and pathotyping. Similar results were obtained with environmentally deposited avian feces. Moreover, the spectrum of viruses detected by these active surveillance methods did not fully mirror an ongoing HPAIV epizootic among waterfowl as detected by passive surveillance, which, in terms of sensitivity, remains unsurpassed. IMPORTANCE Avian influenza viruses (AIV) have a wide host range in the avian metapopulation and, occasionally, transmission to humans also occurs. Surface water plays a particularly important role in the epidemiology of AIV, as the natural virus reservoir is found in aquatic wild birds. Environmental matrices comprising surface water, sediments, and avian fecal matter deposited in the environment were examined for their usefulness in AIV surveillance. Despite virus enrichment efforts, environmental samples regularly revealed very low virus loads, which hampered further sub- and pathotyping. Passive surveillance based on oral and cloacal swabs of diseased and dead wild birds remained unsurpassed with respect to sensitivity.

Delayed Antarctic sea-ice decline in high-resolution climate change simulations.

Despite global warming and Arctic sea-ice loss, on average the Antarctic sea-ice extent has not declined since 1979 when satellite data became available. In contrast, climate model simulations tend to exhibit strong negative sea-ice trends for the same period. This Antarctic sea-ice paradox leads to low confidence in 21st-century sea-ice projections. Here we present multi-resolution climate change projections that account for Southern Ocean mesoscale eddies. The high-resolution configuration simulates stable September Antarctic sea-ice extent that is not projected to decline until the mid-21st century. We argue that one reason for this finding is a more realistic ocean circulation that increases the equatorward heat transport response to global warming. As a result, the ocean becomes more efficient at moderating the anthropogenic warming around Antarctica and hence at delaying sea-ice decline. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating Southern Ocean eddies is necessary for providing Antarctic sea-ice projections with higher confidence.

A vast icefish breeding colony discovered in the Antarctic.

A breeding colony of notothenioid icefish (Neopagetopsis ionah, Nybelin 1947) of globally unprecedented extent has been discovered in the southern Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The colony was estimated to cover at least ∼240 km2 of the eastern flank of the Filchner Trough, comprised of fish nests at a density of 0.26 nests per square meter, representing an estimated total of ∼60 million active nests and associated fish biomass of >60,000 tonnes. The majority of nests were each occupied by 1 adult fish guarding 1,735 eggs (±433 SD). Bottom water temperatures measured across the nesting colony were up to 2°C warmer than the surrounding bottom waters, indicating a spatial correlation between the modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) upflow onto the Weddell Shelf and the active nesting area. Historical and concurrently collected seal movement data indicate that this concentrated fish biomass may be utilized by predators such as Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii, Lesson 1826). Numerous degraded fish carcasses within and near the nesting colony suggest that, in death as well as life, these fish provide input for local food webs and influence local biogeochemical processing. To our knowledge, the area surveyed harbors the most spatially expansive continuous fish breeding colony discovered to date globally at any depth, as well as an exceptionally high Antarctic seafloor biomass. This discovery provides support for the establishment of a regional marine protected area in the Southern Ocean under the Convention on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) umbrella. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Observed interannual changes beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Floating ice shelves are the Achilles' heel of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. They limit Antarctica's contribution to global sea level rise, yet they can be rapidly melted from beneath by a warming ocean. At Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, a decline in sea ice formation may increase basal melt rates and accelerate marine ice sheet mass loss within this century. However, the understanding of this tipping-point behavior largely relies on numerical models. Our new multi-annual observations from five hot-water drilled boreholes through Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf show that since 2015 there has been an intensification of the density-driven ice shelf cavity-wide circulation in response to reinforced wind-driven sea ice formation in the Ronne polynya. Enhanced southerly winds over Ronne Ice Shelf coincide with westward displacements of the Amundsen Sea Low position, connecting the cavity circulation with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns as a new aspect of the atmosphere-ocean-ice shelf system.